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Testing models of belief bias: An experiment - ScienceDirect
"Optimistic beliefs affect important areas of economic decision making, yet direct knowledge on how belief biases operate remains limited. To better understand these biases I introduce a theoretical framework that trades off anticipatory benefits against two potential costs of forming biased beliefs: (1) material costs which result from poor decisions, of Brunnermeier and Parker (2005), and (2) direct psychological costs of distorting reality, of Bracha and Brown (2012). The experiment exploits the potential of the BDM elicitation procedure adopted to lotteries to distort beliefs in different directions, depending on which costs are most important. Relative to an elicitation procedure without distortionary incentives, beliefs are biased in the optimistic direction. Increasing payments for accuracy further increases belief reports, in many cases away from the truth, consistent with psychological costs of belief distortion. Yet the overall results suggest that such theories of optimism fail to explain how beliefs respond to financial incentives."
anticipation  belief-distortion  motivated-beliefs  GEB 
march 2019 by MarcK
Brian Merchant: Nike and Boeing Are Paying Sci-Fi Writers to Predict Their Futures — Medium
There is the old meme of Silicon Valley engineers being a bunch of nerds basically trying to recreate the technologies they saw in Star Trek as kids. Now Nike, Ford, Boeing, and Visa are in it too. Sci-Fi is at an all-time high in popular culture, and **speculative futuring, sci-fi prototyping, worldbuilding** are becoming mainstream capitalist forecasting methods.
stcd:article  stcd:en  future  scifi  anticipation  speculative  design  fiction  from instapaper
november 2018 by mof
YouTube creators can hype prerecorded videos with 'Premieres'
While YouTube users have been able to schedule prerecorded videos for years, until now there hasn't been a seamless way to build anticipation for those videos. But there's a feature being launched at VidCon 2018 called YouTube Premieres that's going to change that. This tool will let creators hype future on-demand videos with a dedicated public landing page that they can link to before a video is live on their channel. Right now, YouTube creators tend to go on other social sites like Instagram or Twitter to let their followers know about incoming videos, but there wasn't a way for them to direct people to a specific page on YouTube -- not for prerecorded videos, anyway.
YouTube  YouTubePremieres  launch  anticipation  tease  Engadget  2018 
june 2018 by inspiral
Teju Cole en Instagram: “A memory I cherish is of being backstage with John Berger and how he leaned forward and began to tell me about how beautiful, how dear, is…” • Instagram
"A memory I cherish is of being backstage with John Berger and how he leaned forward and began to tell me about how beautiful, how dear, is the moment of being backstage, the moment before the main event. In that moment, John said, everything is still and full of potential. In a way, there’s more to it than the main event, this sitting together in the dark waiting for something to happen.

Today I noted an even earlier moment. The shirt I intend to wear is just out of the dryer, draped across a chair in my kitchen, not yet ironed, caught just so by the afternoon light as though attended by one of the great painters."
tejucole  johnberger  2017  potential  anticipation  waiting  before 
november 2017 by robertogreco
Learning from samples of one or fewer
Organizations learn from experience. Sometimes, however, history is not generous with experience. We explore how organizations convert infrequent events into interpretations of history, and how they balance the need to achieve agreement on interpretations with the need to interpret history correctly. We ask what methods are used, what problems are involved, and what improvements might be made. Although the methods we observe are not guaranteed to lead to consistent agreement on interpretations, valid knowledge, improved organizational performance, or organizational survival, they provide possible insights into the possibilities for and problems of learning from fragments of history.
learning  experience  history  anticipation  decision-making  2003  BMJ 
november 2017 by zzkt

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