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Mike Trout Is A $430 Million Bargain | FiveThirtyEight
Now it’s up to the Angels to finally build a winner around him.
As reported by ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Tuesday, the Los Angeles Angels are closing in on a 12-year contract extension worth at least $430 million with outfielder Mike Trout, setting the all-time mark for both the largest contract (passing Bryce Harper’s $330 million deal from a few weeks ago) and the greatest average annual contract value in baseball history. Trout is a longtime object of fascination for us here at FiveThirtyEight; we’ve frequently extolled his virtues as baseball’s best and most consistent star. Now he has the record-breaking contract to match his talent — but one that might still represent a big bargain for the Angels. And the deal’s long-term nature only renews questions about Trout’s ability to win in L.A., as well as his potential to break through as a star off the field.
At first glance, about $36 million per year seems like a tremendous deal for the Angels. According to FanGraphs’ estimated market values based on wins above replacement (WAR), a player with Trout’s 2018 production should have been worth about $79 million last season. That’s nothing new for Trout: FanGraphs estimates that he was worth $55 million (in 70 percent of a full season) in 2017, $78 million in 2016 and $74 million in 2016. So if Trout continues his recent pace, the Angels will basically be paying him half of what he’d be worth on the open market over the next few seasons.
Of course, Trout is also 27 this year, traditionally the age at which baseball players peak. Trout’s new deal will take him through 2030, his age-38 season. Even though no player in baseball history has posted more career WAR through their age-26 season than Trout,1 it’s probably safe to assume that Trout won’t continue to be a 10-WAR-per-season machine throughout the entire life of this contract.
The old saying that “Father Time is undefeated” remains true — perhaps truer now than ever. And even star-level players peak more quickly than you might expect. While Willie Mays and Hank Aaron were superstars late into their careers, other outfielders similar to Trout — such as Ken Griffey Jr. and Andruw Jones — fell off a performance cliff after age 30 and never recovered.
baseball  money  business  538  statistics 
yesterday by rgl7194
2019 Mini Plan Schedule_V3 - 2019_Mini_Plan_Schedule_V3.pdf
A pdf with dates for 8,9,10 game plans. Paid ticket plans with group dates you can buy.
durham  durhambulls  baseball  schedule  2019 
yesterday by brianr
The Story Of The Greatest Photo From The Greatest Game Ever Played
The Longines clock atop the mammoth scoreboard showed that it was exactly 3:35 in the afternoon on October 13, 1960, when Pirates second baseman Bill Mazeroski came to the plate.
sports  baseball  burgh  photography 
4 days ago by mookieproof
How can Walker Buehler top his debut season in Year 2?
GLENDALE, Ariz. -- It was either the World Series or the postseason round before that. Walker Buehler is fuzzy on the details. All he knows is that the stakes were high and that it was the second or third inning, and that all of a sudden he had forgotten how to throw his curveball. He yelled at whoever was within earshot to fetch Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill because they needed to reteach him the grip they showed him a week earlier. He needed to feel it again, and so Kershaw and Hill rushed over to help.
It showed a few important things about Buehler -- that he isn't afraid to be vulnerable, that he is always open to tinkering, even in the middle of a critical start, and that, as a 24-year-old rookie, he had already commanded the respect of the two most seasoned members of the Los Angeles Dodgers' rotation.
baseball  dodgers  buehler 
7 days ago by rgl7194
MLB Rank 50-1: Trout stays No. 1; Bryce bounced from top 10
No. 41. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2018 rank: 2
One key 2019 projection: ZiPS predicts Kershaw will post a 2.91 ERA, which would match his career worst from all the way back in 2010.
Did you know? It's all about health with the Dodgers' ace. He's dealing with shoulder soreness this spring and has not managed even 28 starts in a season since 2015.
No. 42. Walker Buehler, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2018 rank: Not ranked.
One key 2019 projection: An increase in dominance, in the form of a 10.38 K/9 rate from ZiPS, points to an almost-certain solid sophomore effort.
Did you know? His 1.58 ERA and .154 opponents' batting average over the final two months of his rookie season certainly should quell fears that hitters are certain to adjust to him once there's more of a book. If anything, the 2019 projections are too cautious.
No. 49. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
2018 rank: 20
One key 2019 projection: FanGraphs projects Seager to tie his career-best RBI total (77) in just 129 games.
Did you know? Seager played only 26 games last season and is coming off elbow and hip operations. If he recovers sooner than expected, his projections could soar.
baseball  dodgers  kershaw  buehler  seager  ranking 
7 days ago by rgl7194
George Thomas Seaver. My idol. That’s where my comes from. Very sad News
mets  LGM  41  baseball  from twitter_favs
13 days ago by miaeaton

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