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Piecing Together Narratives From the 0′s and 1′s: Storytelling in the Age of Big Data - CIO Journal. - WSJ
Feb 16, 2018 | WSJ | By Irving Wladawsky-Berger.

Probabilities are inherently hard to grasp, especially for an individual event like a war or an election, ......Why is it so hard for people to deal with probabilities in everyday life? “I think part of the answer lies with Kahneman’s insight: Human beings need a story,”....Mr. Kahneman explained their research in his 2011 bestseller Thinking, Fast and Slow. Its central thesis is that our mind is composed of two very different systems of thinking. System 1 is the intuitive, fast and emotional part of our mind. Thoughts come automatically and very quickly to System 1, without us doing anything to make them happen. System 2, on the other hand, is the slower, logical, more deliberate part of the mind. It’s where we evaluate and choose between multiple options, because only System 2 can think of multiple things at once and shift its attention between them.

System 1 typically works by developing a coherent story based on the observations and facts at its disposal. Research has shown that the intuitive System 1 is actually more influential in our decisions, choices and judgements than we generally realize. But, while enabling us to act quickly, System 1 is prone to mistakes. It tends to be overconfident, creating the impression that we live in a world that’s more coherent and simpler than the actual real world. It suppresses complexity and information that might contradict its coherent story.

Making sense of probabilities, numbers and graphs requires us to engage System 2, which, for most everyone, takes quite a bit of focus, time and energy. Thus, most people will try to evaluate the information using a System 1 simple story: who will win the election? who will win the football game?.....Storytelling has played a central role in human communications since times immemorial. Over the centuries, the nature of storytelling has significantly evolved with the advent of writing and the emergence of new technologies that enabled stories to be embodied in a variety of media, including books, films, and TV. Everything else being equal, stories are our preferred way of absorbing information.

“It’s not enough to say an event has a 10 percent probability,” wrote Mr. Leonhardt. “People need a story that forces them to visualize the unlikely event – so they don’t round 10 to zero.”.....
storytelling  massive_data_sets  probabilities  Irving_Wladawsky-Berger  metacognition  complexity  uncertainty  Daniel_Kahneman  Communicating_&_Connecting  decision_making 
3 days ago by jerryking
Blood-thinning drugs designed to cut stroke risk may actually increase it | Science | The Guardian
[big pharma is known to cherry pick patients itself (perfect, just that condition) and cherry pick what to publish ... thus it is no wonder that there might be complications unintended unkowns when you add sicker and more medicated patients - long-term - w new new meds - only tested in single use before by big pharma] Research led by scientists at University College London highlights the problems with polypharmacy – the use of multiple drugs for people with more than one health issue. Older people are especially likely to be on medication for more than one complaint.
Pharma  lobby  self-regulation  CVD  big  medical–industrial  sickcare  demand  chronic  sick  population  premature  ageing  complexity 
7 days ago by asterisk2a
Everything Easy is Hard Again – Frank Chimero
The complexity was off-putting at first. I was unsure if I even wanted tackle a website after seeing the current working methods. Eventually, I agreed to the projects. My gut told me that a lot of the new complexities in workflows, toolchains, and development methods are completely optional for many projects. That belief is the second thread of this talk: I’d like to make a modest defense of simple design and implementation as a better option for the web and the people who work there.
frank  chimero  web  complexity 
8 days ago by fjordaan
Ultra-processed foods 'linked to cancer' - BBC News
What counts as ultra-processed
Mass-produced packaged breads and buns
Sweet or savoury packaged snacks including crisps
Chocolate bars and sweets
Sodas and sweetened drinks
Meatballs, poultry and fish nuggets
Instant noodles and soups
Frozen or shelf-life ready meals
Foods made mostly or entirely from sugar, oils and fats &!
cancer  public  health  CVD  chronic  sick  population  sickcare  demand  NHS  crisis  food–industrial  lobby  food  S.A.D.  western  diet  obesity  overweight  healthcare  diabetes  immune  system  Autoimmune  disease  Diseases  packaging  plastic  pollution  chemical  complexity 
8 days ago by asterisk2a
Move slow and break nothing
This touches on some good points about the complexity of systems, but then points at the heavily regulated airline industry as an example of stability. It’s a good comparison, but doesn’t take into the costs necessary for that level of reliability.

Reliable systems do exist. The United States has not had a casualty from an airplane crash since 2013, and on a domestic carrier since 2009. There were 823 million passengers in the United States in 2016 alone. Clearly highly-redundant and reliable systems can be produced if we want them to and build the right culture of maintenance, safety, and reliability.
technology  software  quality  complexity  programming  risk 
9 days ago by jefframnani
Gamasutra: David Paris's Blog - Gameplay Programming Hints: Building AI
These are some quick hints to make AI construction easier and more effective.
gamedev  ai  programming  complexity  gamasutra 
10 days ago by jakobb
Gamasutra: Filip Wiltgren's Blog - Why it's good to Avoid Large Decision Spaces
More is often better - but not when it comes to choice. Offer the player too many choices and you risk losing them. Instead, focus on a few critical c
gamedev  game_feel  complexity  depth  decision_spaces  gamasutra 
10 days ago by jakobb

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