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Recent increase in catastrophic tropical cyclone flooding in coastal North Carolina, USA: Long-term observations suggest a regime shift | Scientific Reports
Overall, our analysis indicates that; 1) we are experiencing a regime shift in the intensity and quantity of rainfall associated with these events, and 2) this shift has led to unprecedented large loads of nutrients and orgenic matter with major implications for biogeochemical cycling, primary production and overall water quality conditions in the receiving APS and adjacent coastal waters. Furthermore, our observations are consistent with similar observations elsewhere and with predicted hydrologic, nutrient and carbon flux changes taking place in a warming climate
extremePrecipitation  hurricanes  Climate_Science_study  attribution  detection  flooding  fisheries  carbonSinks 
24 days ago by huntercutting
As Climate Changes, Hurricanes Get Wetter
Climate change has added up to 9% precipitation to tropical storms.
climate  hurricanes  flooding 
5 weeks ago by paulmr
The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season | Scientific Reports
Kim et al 2018: We examine the roles of three well-known modes of climate variability (ENSO, the AMM, and the NAO), along with the SST trend associated with a warming climate...results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.
hurricanes  attribution  Climate_Science_study 
may 2019 by huntercutting
The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones
Hsiang and Jina 2014 - used for Black Rock 2019 analysis. Using meteorological data, we reconstruct every country's exposure to the universe of tropical cyclones during 1950-2008. We exploit random within-country year-to-year variation in cyclone strikes to identify the causal effect of environmental disasters on long-run growth. We compare each country's growth rate to itself in the years immediately before and after exposure, accounting for the distribution of cyclones in preceding years. The data reject hypotheses that disasters stimulate growth or that short-run losses disappear following migrations or transfers of wealth. Instead, we find robust evidence that national incomes decline, relative to their pre-disaster trend, and do not recover within twenty years. Both rich and poor countries exhibit this response, with losses magnified in countries with less historical cyclone experience. Income losses arise from a small but persistent suppression of annual growth rates spread across the fifteen years following disaster, generating large and significant cumulative effects: a 90th percentile event reduces per capita incomes by 7.4% two decades later, effectively undoing 3.7 years of average development. The gradual nature of these losses render them inconspicuous to a casual observer, however simulations indicate that they have dramatic influence over the long-run development of countries that are endowed with regular or continuous exposure to disaster. Linking these results to projections of future cyclone activity, we estimate that under conservative discounting assumptions the present discounted cost of "business as usual" climate change is roughly $9.7 trillion larger than previously thought.
Climate_Science_study  hurricanes  climate_projection  climate_costs 
april 2019 by huntercutting
Climate Change to Blame for Hurricane Maria’s Extreme Rainfall - Eos
Hurricane Maria dropped more rain on Puerto Rico than any storm to hit the island since 1956, a feat due mostly to the effects of human-caused climate warming, new research finds.

A new study analyzing Puerto Rico’s hurricane history finds 2017’s Maria had the highest average rainfall of the 129 storms to have struck the island in the past 60 years. A storm of Maria’s magnitude is nearly five times more likely to form now than during the 1950s, an increase due largely to the effects of human-induced warming, according to the study’s authors.

“What we found was that Maria’s magnitude of peak precipitation is much more likely in the climate of 2017 when it happened versus the beginning of the record in 1950,” said David Keellings, a geographer at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa and lead author of the new study in AGU’s journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Maria  attribution  Climate_Science_study  hurricanes 
april 2019 by huntercutting
EXTREME WEATHER: Annual hurricane costs double — CBO -- Thursday, April 11, 2019
The Congressional Budget Office doubled its estimate of annual hurricane costs, finding that extreme weather is dishing out damage that wasn't expected for another 50 years.

The CBO forecasts hurricane damage to cost $54 billion each year, equivalent to 0.3% of the annual U.S. gross domestic product, according to a report released yesterday.

That's about twice as high as the CBO's estimate in 2016: $28 billion, increasing to $39 billion by 2075.

The jump between 2016 and 2019 reflects the difficulty of forecasting hurricanes, with two seasons of big storms like Hurricanes Harvey, Maria and Florence reshaping the way experts and the public think about extreme weather.
climate_projection  climate_costs  hurricanes  Climate_Science_study 
april 2019 by huntercutting
A 66‐year tropical cyclone record for south‐east Africa: temporal trends in a global context - Fitchett - 2014 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library
Fitchett and Grab 2014: This study investigates changes in the frequency and timing of tropical cyclone landfalls over the south‐west Indian Ocean during the last 66 years. Little is known about the spatial and temporal trends of such storm landfalls during recent historical times, specifically the last ca. 100 years. By analysing three storm track records spanning periods of 66–161 years, we establish that much of the perceived change in storm numbers can be attributed to improvements in storm detection methods over the past century. Furthermore, we find no statistically significant trends in the frequency of tropical cyclone landfalls over Madagascar and Mozambique over the past 6 decades, despite more comprehensive records during the most recent period. There is, however, considerable interannual variability in the number of storms making landfall over the countries investigated; most probably driven by cyclical atmospheric forcing, including El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Recent trends indicate an increasing number of tropical cyclones tracking to the south of Madagascar, potentially associated with the southward shift of the 26 °C isotherm, combined with a decrease in the steering flow during La Niña years.
hurricanes  detection  Africa  Madagascar  Climate_Science_study 
march 2019 by huntercutting

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