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Oaktree on investing and betting
Investing is agame of skill –meaninginferior playerscan’t expect to be above average winnersin the long run. But italso includeselements of chance –meaning skill won’t win out every time. In the long run, superior skill will overcome the impact of bad luck.But in the short run, luck can overwhelm skill, and the two can be indistinguishable
games  investing  luck  uncertainty 
17 days ago by traggett
Barnwell - The NFL-altering Andrew Luck retirement, and what comes next
It's not hyperbole: Andrew Luck's stunning decision to move on from the NFL is the most shocking retirement American pro sports has seen since Michael Jordan left the NBA in 1993. The circumstances are obviously different, and we've seen players such as Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson leave the game earlier than anybody would have expected, but 29-year-old quarterbacks in the prime of their careers just don't get up and leave. This isn't just a franchise-altering decision. It alters the entire complexion of the NFL.
To put this in context, by Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value statistic, there have been two players in NFL history who have posted a better season in their final NFL campaign than the Indianapolis Colts quarterback and then retired by choice before turning 30. One is former Vikings running back Robert Smith, who ran for 1,521 yards at age 28 before moving on. The other is Jim Brown. No quarterback has made the Pro Bowl in a season during his 20s and then immediately retired since Johnny Lujack, and if that name doesn't ring a bell, it's because Lujack retired in 1952.
football  retirement  luck 
5 weeks ago by rgl7194
Andrew Luck is Taking His Body and Going Home. Good For Him.
Andrew luck is tired.
He’s tired of being sacked repeatedly by walking, breathing mountains.
He’s tired of injuries and surgeries and rehabs and setbacks and re-injury.
He’s tired of rumors and speculation and conjecture and expectation.
He’s tired of playing through the pain in a game he no longer enjoys.
He’s tired of being defined by a skill he has or a title he holds.
He finally got so tired of it all that he finally said no more. Two weeks before the start of a season playing for a team aspiring to the Super Bowl, he shut it all down.
Andrew Luck decided to take his body and go home—and good for him. He may feel badly right now, but something tells me he’ll be thankful he did.
The knee-jerk reaction by some fans is to castigate him; to brand him soft and a traitor, to claim leaving like this is cowardly. Anyone who says that is wrong.
football  retirement  luck  pavlovitz 
5 weeks ago by rgl7194
James Clear on Twitter: "There are 3 primary drivers of results in life: 1) Your luck (randomness). 2) Your strategy (choices). 3) Your actions (habits). Only 2 of the 3 are under your control. But if you master those 2, you can improve the odds that lu

There are 3 primary drivers of results in life:

1) Your luck (randomness).
2) Your strategy (choices).
3) Your actions (habits).

Only 2 of the 3 are under your control.

But if you master those 2, you can improve the odds that luck will work for you rather than against you.
luck  habit  strategy 
5 weeks ago by bekishore
The Deceptions of Luck
Medium - 12 January 2017
Nature makes chance; Humans make luck
Personal  HTGTFH  Randomness  Luck 
november 2019 by rwjones
A belief in meritocracy is not only false: it’s bad for you | Aeon Ideas
Despite the moral assurance and personal flattery that meritocracy offers to the successful, it ought to be abandoned both as a belief about how the world works and as a general social ideal. It’s false, and believing in it encourages selfishness, discrimination and indifference to the plight of the unfortunate.
meritocracy  socialMobility  privilege  inequality  economics  psychology  luck  competition 
september 2019 by petej

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