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Bloc politics: a split Remain vote may not equal a large Conservative majority - UK in a changing EuropeUK in a changing Europe
This is the case if the electorates of Labour and the Liberal Democrats are spatially and demographically more different from each other than those of the Conservatives and the Brexit Party. This is not a heroic assumption: of the top 100 Liberal Democrat target seats, only 12 are Labour-held, while 82 are Conservative held; of the top 100 Labour target seats, none are Liberal Democrat-held.

Conversely, according to Professor Chris Hanretty’s estimates of constituency results of the 2019 European Parliament election, of the 100 seats where the Brexit Party did best, 76 are held by the Conservatives, and only 23 by Labour.
tories  brexit  polls  to_blog 
3 days ago by yorksranter
Poll: Half of voters support impeaching and removing Trump - POLITICO
In the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, respondents were asked a series of three questions: whether they support the impeachment inquiry, whether they would support the House’s impeaching Trump and then whether they would support the Senate’s voting to remove him.

At each step, voters were split sharply along partisan lines. On the inquiry, 84 percent of Democrats, 16 percent of Republicans and 45 percent of independents support it — while 12 percent of Democrats, 81 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of independents oppose it.

And while the topline results are virtually indistinguishable on the following two questions, there is some movement among partisans. Support for the House’s voting to impeach Trump ticks up among Democrats, to 88 percent from 84 percent, and down among Republicans, to 12 percent from 16 percent. Independents are divided: 44 percent would support the House’s impeaching Trump, and 42 percent would oppose that.

Similarly, Democrats would support the Senate’s voting to remove Trump from office, 88 percent to 7 percent. Among Republicans, only 12 percent would support Trump’s removal, and 83 percent would oppose it. Roughly as many independents would support the Senate’s ousting Trump (44 percent) as would oppose it (43 percent).

Other polls show a larger gap between approval of the impeachment inquiry and support for Trump’s removal. But those polls also have important methodological differences that shed light on the results.

A Washington Post-Schar School poll released on Tuesday first asked respondents whether Congress should or should not have begun an impeachment inquiry of Trump. A majority, 58 percent, said it should have — and then they were asked whether the House should vote to remove him from office.

Of the respondents who said Congress should have begun an inquiry, 86 percent said the House should impeach Trump — which netted out to 49 percent support for Trump’s impeachment. With 38 percent saying Congress should not have begun an impeachment inquiry, that leaves 6 percent of respondents who think the inquiry is appropriate but don’t think the House should vote to impeach Trump.

A Quinnipiac University poll, also released Tuesday, asked separately about the inquiry and impeachment and removal — but in reverse order. In an initial question, Quinnipiac found voters split on whether Trump should be impeached and removed from office: 45 percent said yes, while 49 percent said no. But in a subsequent question, the school found that 53 percent of voters approve of Congress’ “formal impeachment inquiry to determine whether or not to bring impeachment charges” against Trump, while only 43 percent disapprove.
Trump  impeachment.inquiry  polls 
5 days ago by kye

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