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When No Redundancy Is More Reliable – The Myth of Redundancy | SMB IT Journal
Risk in a difficult concept and it requires a lot of training, thought and analysis to properly assess given scenarios. Often, because risk assessments are so difficult, we substitute risk analysis with simply adding basic redundancy and assuming that we have appropriately mitigated risk. But very often this is not the case. The introduction of complexity or additional failure modes often accompany the addition of redundancy and these new forms of failure have the potential to add more risk than the added redundancy removes. Storage systems are especially prone to these decision processes which is unfortunate as few, if any, systems are so susceptible to failure and more important to protect.
raid  reliability  disk  probability  failure 
yesterday by bezthomas
If correlation doesn’t imply causation, then what does? | DDI
I often wonder how many people with real decision-making power – politicians, judges, and so on – are making decisions based on statistical studies, and yet they don’t understand even basic things like Simpson’s paradox.
causality  statistics  probability  research  science 
yesterday by lena
条件付き確率場の推論と学習
条件付き確率場の推論と学習 東北大学情報科学研究科 システム情報科学専攻 岡谷研究室 博士後期課程1年 齋藤 真樹
probability  markov 
yesterday by odiak
グラフィカルモデル入門
いまさら聞けない グラフィカルモデル入門 川本一彦 千葉大学統合情報センター kawa@faculty.chiba-u.jp
statistics  probability 
5 days ago by odiak
Random Points on a Sphere (Part 1) | Azimuth
John D. Cook, Greg Egan, Dan Piponi and I had a fun mathematical adventure on Twitter. It started when John Cook wrote a program to compute the probability distribution of distances |xy - yx| where x and y were two randomly chosen unit quaternions:
math  blog  probability  analysis 
6 days ago by kmt
Semantics of probabilistic programs
Dexter Kozen, 1981
If S and T are two programs such that S(u) = T(u) whenever u is a point mass, then S = T under Semantics 2.
via Feras
probability 
8 days ago by jar
How people interpret probability through words | FlowingData
"I wonder what results would look like if instead of showing a word and asking probability, you flipped it around. Show probability and then ask people for a word to describe. I’d like to see that spectrum." - that CIA report again, and this time with a good question
probability  cia  report  visualization  human  cognition  language 
8 days ago by danhon

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