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McKinley , Vernon , Andrianakis , McCreesh , Oakley , Nsubuga , Goldstein , White : Approximate Bayesian Computation and Simulation-Based Inference for Complex Stochastic Epidemic Models
"Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and other simulation-based inference methods are becoming increasingly used for inference in complex systems, due to their relative ease-of-implementation. We briefly review some of the more popular variants of ABC and their application in epidemiology, before using a real-world model of HIV transmission to illustrate some of challenges when applying ABC methods to high-dimensional, computationally intensive models. We then discuss an alternative approach—history matching—that aims to address some of these issues, and conclude with a comparison between these different methodologies."
to:NB  epidemic_models  simulation  approximate_bayesian_computation  statistics 
yesterday by cshalizi
WebGL Fluid Simulation
A WebGL fluid simulation that works in mobile browsers.
webgl  simulation 
2 days ago by geetarista
Modelling the recent common ancestry of all living humans
With 5% of individuals migrating out of their home town, 0.05% migrating out of their home country, and 95% of port users born in the country from which the port emanates, the simulations produce a mean MRCA date of 1,415BC and a mean IA date of 5,353BC. Interestingly, the MRCAs are nearly always found in eastern Asia.This is due to the proximity of this region to both Eurasia and either the remote Pacific islands or the Americas, allowing the MRCA’s descendants to reach a few major world regions in a relatively shorttime.Arguably, this simulation is far too conservative, especially given its prediction that, even in densely populated Eurasia, only 55.3people will leave each country per generation inAD1500. If the migration rate among towns is increased to 20%, the local port users are reduced to 80%, and the migration rates between countries and continents are scaled up by factors of 5 and 10, respectively, the mean MRCA date is as recent asAD55 and the mean IA date is 2,158BC. The predictions of the simple ten-node graph model sketched earlier fall somewhere between these dates and those of the more conservative computational model.
genetics  science  immigration  simulation 
3 days ago by pozorvlak

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