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What Bear Markets Look Like – AVC
So while crypto asset prices are down 80-95% in USD terms over the last year, they could and probably will go lower. Amazon was down 80% a year into the post-bubble bear market and it got cut in half again before it made a bottom almost two years after it peaked.
Investing  cryptocurrency 
10 weeks ago by activescott
Stock Returns by Month: Interesting Historical Trends
What happens when you assess performance on a monthly basis, comparing the months to each other over time? Are there some months in which the market performs better than others, over the long term?

Yes, based on my analysis of historical data of the S&P 500.

Here’s what I did: I pulled data (source: Yahoo Finance) showing the opening market value and the closing market value for each month, dating back 40 years. From there, I downloaded the results into an Excel spreadsheet, and ran pivot tables on the data.
finance  investing  history  stocks 
10 weeks ago by activescott
EarningsCast - Latest Earnings Calls, EarningsCast - Upcoming Earnings Calls
With earningscast, you can follow companies, add them to a personal feed and set alerts
so you never have to hunt for a call or jump through form hoops again.
finance  investing  News  SMAR  stocks  earnings-calls 
11 weeks ago by activescott
Why Facebook Is Undervalued - Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) | Seeking Alpha
To select the relevant financial metrics that Facebook shareholders have been looking at, Facebook's shares have been historically related to some of the standard financial metrics, such as revenue, earnings, gross margin, and free cash flow. Simply because stock prices are forward-looking, the forward financials are always more useful than the actual financials. For this reason, I collected the consensus estimates of the various metrics since 2013. Their relationships between forward revenue and EPS estimates with actual Facebook stock prices are depicted in Figure 2 and Figure 3, respectively.
$FB  investing  metrics  Finance  valuation 
november 2018 by activescott
Why Facebook Is Undervalued - Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) | Seeking Alpha
To see if the current Facebook reflects the fundamentals, we need to develop a "normal" perspective. I first estimated the relationship between the relevant financial metrics and Facebook stock prices for the time period between 2013 and 2017. I then applied the same historical relationship to the 2018 current financial metrics in order to derive the normal Facebook current prices which were compared with the actual stock prices.
$FB  investing  valuation 
november 2018 by activescott
Real Data-Based Guidance On Selling Stock Post-IPO - Blog - Wealthfront
If a company met both of its first two earnings estimates, we found that the company’s stock had a slightly less than even chance – 43% – of rebounding to its stock price level of just before the lockup expiration.
investing  SMAR 
october 2018 by activescott
Introduction To Put Writing
Selling or writing a put is a strategy that traders or investors can use to generate income, or to buy stock at a reduced price. 

When writing a put, the writer agrees to buy the underlying stock at the strike price if the contract is exercised. Writing, in this case, means selling a put contract to open a position. For opening a position by selling a put, the writer will receive a premium or fee for doing so. In exchange, they are liable to the put buyer to purchase shares at the strike price if the underlying stock falls below that price. Options expire, so the put seller is liable up until the contract expires
Investing  options  put 
june 2018 by activescott
Amazon Vs. Facebook: This Is No Contest - amzn | Seeking Alpha
“As an example, for Amazon to have an EV/FCF of 25x, it needs to produce free cash flow of $34 billion, which isn't going to occur for a long time.”
Finance  Investing  valuation  metrics 
june 2018 by activescott
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
DCF analyses use future free cash flow projections and discounts them, using a required annual rate, to arrive at present value estimates. A present value estimate is then used to evaluate the potential for investment. If the value arrived at through DCF analysis is higher than the current cost of the investment, the opportunity may be a good one.
finance  Investing  metrics 
may 2018 by activescott
Shopify: The Real Story Everyone Is Missing - shop | Seeking Alpha
“based on our 10-year Discounted Cash Flow model”. and generally solid analysis.
finance  Investing  metrics  !starred 
may 2018 by activescott | Investor Bulletin: Initial Coin Offerings
Developers, businesses, and individuals increasingly are using initial coin offerings, also called ICOs or token sales, to raise capital. These activities may provide fair and lawful investment opportunities. However, new technologies and financial products, such as those associated with ICOs, can be used improperly to entice investors with the promise of high returns in a new investment space. The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy is issuing this Investor Bulletin to make investors aware of potential risks of participating in ICOs.
funding  goverment  startups  cryptocurrency  crowdfunding  business  finance  Investing  SEC  ICO 
april 2018 by activescott | Regulation Crowdfunding: A Small Entity Compliance Guide for Issuers[1]
Under the Securities Act of 1933, the offer and sale of securities must be registered unless an exemption from registration is available. Title III of the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act of 2012 added Securities Act Section 4(a)(6) that provides an exemption from registration for certain crowdfunding transactions.[2] In 2015, the Commission adopted Regulation Crowdfunding to implement the requirements of Title III.[3] Under the rules, eligible companies will be allowed to raise capital using Regulation Crowdfunding starting May 16, 2016.
funding  goverment  startups  cryptocurrency  crowdfunding  business  finance  Investing  SEC 
april 2018 by activescott
Using an annual growth rate, how can I convert monthly revenue growth to quarterly revenue growth? - Quora
Let's start with the basics. When something is growing at 1% monthly, each month you multiply the previous month's result by 1.01.

Month 0 (start) = 1 - 1= 0% growth
Month 1 = (1 * 1.01) - 1= .01 = 1% growth
Month 2 = (1 * 1.01 * 1.01) - 1 = .0201 = 2.01% growth
Month 3 = (1 * 1.01 * 1.01 * 1.01) - 1 = .030301 = 3.0301% growth
And so on.

A shorthand for representing this is through an exponent. (1.01 ^ 3) - 1 = (1.01 * 1.01 * 1.01) - 1 = .030301 = 3.0301% = The result of 3 months of growth at 1% monthly.
finance  investing  metrics  math 
february 2018 by activescott
Historical Intraday Data | Pi Trading
Affordable financial data...

For over a decade, Pi Trading has been a leading provider of research-quality, historical intraday data and custom financial solutions. Whether you are a professional trader, an academic university, a corporate institution, or an individual investor, Pi Trading can meet your needs.
finance  data  investing  stocks 
january 2018 by activescott
13,927 (BTC/USD) Bitfinex - Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum Exchange and Margin Trading Platform
Often selling ETH at a discount in BTC and USD. Been hacked a couple times. Lookin a little shady.
"Bitfinex is terminating its relationship with US Individual customers (non-corporate accounts with a primary residence in the United States)."
bitcoin  exchange  cryptocurrency  trading  investing  finance 
december 2017 by activescott
Amazon's AWS Still King of IaaS Despite Microsoft's Surging Numbers
Microsoft reported a cloud run-rate of $18.9 billion during the fourth quarter of 2017, up 56.2% from $12.1 billion a year ago. Amazon Web Services reported $4.1 billion during the recent quarter, up 42% from $2.886 billion a year ago.
news  msft  amzn  aapl  finance  investing 
august 2017 by activescott
FY17 Q2 - Press Releases - Investor Relations - Microsoft
Revenue in Intelligent Cloud was $6.9 billion and increased 8% (up 10% in constant currency), with the following business highlights:

·        Server products and cloud services revenue increased 12% (up 14% in constant currency) driven by double-digit annuity revenue growth

·        Azure revenue increased 93% (up 95% in constant currency) with Azure compute usage more than doubling year-over-year

·        Enterprise Services revenue decreased 4% (down 2% in constant currency) with declines in custom support agreements offset by growth in Premier Support Services and consulting
msft  finance  investing  news 
august 2017 by activescott
Are stocks really in a bubble of trouble?
Allow me to take a moment to go through some of the basics of Fibonacci Pinball. Based upon our Fibonacci Pinball method...
investing  stocks  statistics  avi-gilburt  fibonacci-pinball-method 
january 2015 by activescott
Bitcoin Data Platform | RTBTC
Cool, but it's stupid mtgox only! Real Time Charting, Order Book, and Time & Sales
bitcoin  charts  finance  investing 
march 2014 by activescott
Zero Hedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
our mission: - to widen the scope of financial, economic and political information available - to the professional investing public. - to skeptically examine and, where necessary, attack the flaccid institution that financial journalism has become. - to liberate oppressed knowledge. - to provide analysis uninhibited by political constraint. - to facilitate information's unending quest for freedom.
finance  economics  news  investing 
february 2014 by activescott
Announcing the Safe, a Replacement for Convertible Notes - Y Combinator Posthaven
A safe is like a convertible note in that the investor buys not stock itself but the right to buy stock in an equity round when it occurs.  A safe can have a valuation cap, or be uncapped, just like a note.  But what the investor buys is not debt, but something more like a warrant.  So there is no need to fix a term or decide on an interest rate.
startups  investing  vc  ycombinator  funding  equity  finance 
january 2014 by activescott
Precious Metals IRAs » Goldstar Trust Company
Gold Star Trust company seems to be reasonably reputable precious metal/self directed IRA
ira  gold  investing 
september 2013 by activescott
Apple Inc. (AAPL) Is Worth $607 Assuming No Inflation Adjusted Growth
...modern valuation theory. That theory teaches that the value of a company’s stock is composed of two parts: 1) the company’s book value, which can be thought of as the value contributed by investors, and 2) the value created by the company. With a little math it can be proven that this second part equals the present value of the company’s excess earnings, discounted at the cost of equity. If this seems a little confusing, don’t worry, we will get to the numbers in a minute and that should clarify things. It is important, however, to understand that excess earnings equal the rate of return the company earns on its book value over and above the cost of capital. If a company fails to earn in excess of its cost of capital, its share price will not rise no matter how rapidly it is growing.
finance  investing  valuation  apple 
november 2012 by activescott
Moneydance | Infinite Kind
Very cool personal finance program for windows, mac, and iOS.
investing  mac  software  finance 
october 2012 by activescott
S&P; | S&P; 500 | Americas
Lots of current raw data as spreadsheets on the S&P.; The absolute most authoritative data around on earnings, dividends, P/E, etc.
stocks  reference  data  sampledata  investing  finance 
march 2012 by activescott
Betterment | A better investment.
Cool idea. There should be a halal version of this with a couple more options.
october 2011 by activescott
Sukuk - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This is the best explanation of the principal riba I've seen: "As Shari’ah considers money to be a measuring tool for value and not an asset in itself, it requires that one should not receive income from money (or anything that has the genus of money) alone. This generation of money from money (simplistically, interest) is "Riba", and is forbidden. The implication for Islamic financial institutions is that the trading and selling of debts, receivables (for anything other than par), conventional loan lending and credit cards are not permissible."
riba  finance  investing  islam 
june 2011 by activescott
Bullish Cross: 2010: The Year Apple Enters a New Golden Age with 71% Earnings Growth
Using YOY growth rates for fundamental analysis and to establish stock price targets.
investing  fundamentalAnalysis  valuation  apple  AAPL 
july 2010 by activescott
Bullish Cross: The End of the iPod Era Part II: The Other Side of the Debate
iPod as a percentage of Apple's revenue.

Good example of good and thoughtful market research. Bringing units from marketing meetings and revenue from financial statements together to paint a more clear picture.
AAPL  investing  finance  apple  iphone  marketresearch  publish 
july 2010 by activescott
An ETF Trend-Following Plan For All Seasons | ETF Trends
Using 200 day moving average as the basis for buying and selling.
Investing  ETF  200DayMA 
may 2010 by activescott
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