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Obama campaign's voter data crunching paid off - latimes.com
Early on election day, in two tight, tucked-away rooms at Obama headquarters known as the Cave and the Alley, the campaign's data-crunching team awaited the nation's first results, from Dixville Notch, a New Hampshire hamlet that traditionally votes at midnight.
Dixville Notch split 5-5. It did not seem an auspicious outcome for the president. But for the math geeks and data wizards who spent more than a year devising sophisticated models to predict which voters would back the president, Dixville Notch was a victory. Their model had gotten it right, predicting that about 50% of the village's voters were likely to support President Obama. Daniel Wagner, the 29-year-old chief analytics officer, erupted in joy. The model was also projecting that Obama would be reelected. And as the night wore on, swing state after swing state came in with results that were very close to the model's prediction.
Fall  2012  November  Obama  election  analytics  politics  business-models  trends  notes 
december 2012 by ahasteve
3 'rules' the Obama campaign broke to win - latimes.com
Now that President Obama has been reelected, much of the conversation has turned to his campaign's strategy. How were they able to win despite stubborn unemployment, "super PACs" that outspent them and independent voters who generally lean right? Here are three ways the Obama campaign bucked convention:
Lesson learned: It means something to people when the candidate running for the nation’s highest office cares about everyone in our American family rather than ignoring the diversity in this country. Lesson learned: Always listen to Times Washington columnist Doyle McManus, who explained in September why 8% unemployment wouldn’t sink Obama's reelection hopes. Lesson learned: Money isn't everything. You also have to know how to spend it wisely. And, we need campaign finance reform.
Fall  2012  November  election  Obama  Republicans  trends  notes 
december 2012 by ahasteve
Doyle McManus: Wielding wedge issues - latimes.com
Once upon a time in American politics, there were things called "wedge issues," and they generally terrified Democrats. They were mostly social and cultural issues: abortion, feminism, gay rights, illegal immigration and race. Conservatives wielded them to divide working-class Democrats. Wedge issues helped elect Ronald Reagan to the presidency and dozens of other Republicans to Congress. And now they aren't working anymore. Or, more precisely, they're not working for the GOP. They're helping the Democrats instead.
Fall  2012  November  election  Obama  Republicans  trends  notes 
december 2012 by ahasteve
Election score card: Tuesday's winners and losers - latimes.com
Despite the hand-wringing that followed the Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United decision, super PACs showed that their power to influence elections is limited. After outside organizations poured nearly $1 billion into national races, with most of the money backing Republicans, the GOP failed to make headway in the Senate and lost the presidency.
Tea party backing seems to be beneficial in smaller House districts, but in statewide or national races, the ideological purity demanded by hard-core conservatives may be turning off moderate voters, leading to Senate losses in such states as Missouri and Indiana, where more centrist Republicans would have had a strong shot at winning. Dishonesty. Wags have described this year's presidential race as a "post-truth" campaign, with both sides issuing statements that kept media fact-checkers busy. But the award for disingenuousness has to go to Romney, whose ever-shifting positions on issues and misleading use of statistics left many voters cold.
Fall  2012  November  election  CitizensUnited  TeaBagNation  fact-check  SuperPac  Republicans  trends  notes 
december 2012 by ahasteve
Disclosure by Arizona nonprofit shows ties to Koch brothers - latimes.com
On Monday, the Fair Political Practices Commission said all of the transfers are proof of "campaign money laundering." California Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris said the investigation would continue. "This case is not over," she said. "And it will not be over tomorrow," Election Day. The Center to Protect Patient Rights is closely tied to the Koch brothers, and it was a primary conduit for anonymous political money in the 2010 midterm election. There are other signs that Americans for Responsible Leadership is part of a broad constellation of secretive Republican groups. It is being represented by a prominent Virginia-based law firm, Holtzman Vogel Josefiak, that has worked for other conservative advocacy organizations that conceal their donors. The firm also shares an address with American Crossroads, a powerful fundraising organization founded by Republican strategist Karl Rove. The firm's clients include the American Future Fund, which gave $4 million earlier this year to push Prop
Fall  2012  November  USWest  California  Arizona  AmericanFutureFund  KarlRove  AmericanCrossroads  Republicans  AmericansforResponsibleLeadership  election  2010  CentertoProtectPatientRights  KamalaHarris  Attorney-General  KochBrothers  non-profit  SuperPac  politics  trends  notes  Koch 
december 2012 by ahasteve
A Campaign Map, Morphed By Money : It's All Politics : NPR
Campaign reporters spend a lot of time pointing at color-coded electoral maps like the one below, showing which states voted for Republican John McCain (in red) and Democrat Barack Obama (in blue) in 2008.
But these maps lie — visually speaking.
Red appears to be the clear winner, dominating a vast swath from the South to the Rockies. It's all geographically accurate, but electorally skewed. For example, Montana (three electoral votes) dwarfs Massachusetts (which had 12 electoral votes in 2008). To fix this problem, some political cartographers have resized the states based on their electoral vote tally.
In this map, the influence of the Northeast is a bit more apparent, and the stature of the Mountain West has diminished. We've shaded the states based on their popular vote results in 2008. States that were split 50-50 are purple.
But this map still doesn't accurately convey which states are most important in this election. What would this map look li
Fall  2012  November  voters  campaign  campaigns  ElectoralCollege  2008  election  politics  bluestate  redstate  state  maps  map  notes 
november 2012 by ahasteve
Campaign finance: Democrats sue FEC to require disclosure of donors - latimes.com
The lawsuit argues that concealing the identity of donors is contrary to the law and the court's ruling. Reformers point to the Supreme Court decision last year in Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission. In ruling that these funds could legally go to independent groups, the majority opinion noted: "With the advent of the Internet, prompt disclosure of expenditures can provide shareholders and citizens with the information needed to hold corporations and elected officials accountable." The lawsuit filed in federal district court in Washington challenges a FEC regulation adopted in 2007 as illegal because it conflicted with existing law. The suit argues that language in the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act, passed by Congress in 2002, required disclosure of donations of $1,000 or more if the donations were made for the purpose of furthering "electioneering communications."
Spring  2011  April  politics  election  campaign  finance  FEC  notes 
april 2011 by ahasteve
Stephen Colbert launches his Super PAC - latimes.com
Late last month, Stephen Colbert announced his strategy to become a "political playa in 2012" -- form a political action committee, like fellow conservative TV politi-pundits Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. ColbertPAC collected more than 68,000 emails, Colbert said last night. But Comedy Central's corporate parent Viacom, fearing that the PAC violates campaign finance restrictions, asked Colbert to shut the would-be PAC down. But last night, with help from former FEC Commissioner Trevor Potter, ColbertPAC was resurrected. With the addition of a simple cover letter, it transformed from regular old PAC to a "super PAC," which, sadly, is not, as Colbert suggests, "like a PAC that got bitten by a radioactive lobbyist." Super PAC is a catchy term for independent expenditure-only committees, which can advocate for or against federal candidates but cannot coordinate with campaigns or political parties.
Spring  2011  April  politics  election  campaign  finance  boomersaurs  StephenColbert  SuperPAC 
april 2011 by ahasteve
Campaign finance: Democrats sue FEC to require disclosure of donors - latimes.com
The lawsuit argues that concealing the identity of donors is contrary to the law and the court's ruling. Reformers point to the Supreme Court decision last year in Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission. In ruling that these funds could legally go to independent groups, the majority opinion noted: "With the advent of the Internet, prompt disclosure of expenditures can provide shareholders and citizens with the information needed to hold corporations and elected officials accountable." The lawsuit filed in federal district court in Washington challenges a FEC regulation adopted in 2007 as illegal because it conflicted with existing law. The suit argues that language in the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act, passed by Congress in 2002, required disclosure of donations of $1,000 or more if the donations were made for the purpose of furthering "electioneering communications."
Spring  2011  April  politics  election  campaign  finance  FEC  notes 
april 2011 by ahasteve
Chart: Recent presidential election results, by state - latimes.com
Chart:  Western States Presidential Election Results.  2000, 2004, 2008.  Arizona, Colorado, Montana, Nevada and New Mexico
Winter  2011  February  USWest  regional  politics  RockyMountain  democrats  obama  Arizona  Nevada  Colorado  NewMexico  Montana  Tester  notes  chart  2000  2004  2008  election  state  district 
february 2011 by ahasteve
Utah's 1st congressional district - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Utah's 1st congressional district serves the northwest area of Utah, including the cities of Ogden, Logan, Tooele; the northwest portion of Salt Lake City, and the entirety of the Great Salt Lake.The current member of the United States House of Representatives from the district is Republican Rob Bishop. President George W. Bush received 73% of the vote in this district in 2004. Scoring a Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) of R+26 in 2004, the 1st Congressional District narrowly beat three other Congressional Districts which scored R+25 to become the most Republican district in the nation. It was subsequently overtaken in this regard by Utah's 3rd congressional district.
Winter  2011  January  Utah  SummitCountyU  district  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  wikipedia  profile  politics  republicans  democrats  election  YoungExurbs  UT-1 
january 2011 by ahasteve
San Clemente, California - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Of the 32,569 registered voters in the city, 18,320 (56.2%) are Republicans, 7,532 (23.1%) are Democrats, 5,132 (15.8%) declined to state political affiliation, and the remaining 1,585 (4.9%) are registered with a minor party. In the state legislature San Clemente is located in the 38th Senate District, represented by Republican Mark Wyland, and in the 73rd Assembly District, represented by Republican Diane Harkey. Federally, San Clemente is located in California's 44th congressional district, which has a Cook PVI of R +6[5] and is represented by Republican Ken Calvert.
Winter  2011  January  California  OrangeCounty  SanClemente  wikipedia  profile  district  congressional-district  CA-44  MoniedBurbs  YoungExurbs  PatchworkNation  politics  republicans  democrats  election  SouthOrangeCounty 
january 2011 by ahasteve
California's 44th congressional district - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
California's 44th congressional district currently covers an area of Southern California from San Clemente in Orange County on the coast, north-by-northeast inland to Riverside County, including the cities of Corona, Norco, Rubidoux, and Riverside. Since 2003, Republican Ken Calvert has represented the district in the United States House of Representatives.
Winter  2011  January  California  OrangeCounty  SanClemente  wikipedia  profile  district  congressional-district  MoniedBurbs  YoungExurbs  CA-44  PatchworkNation  politics  republicans  democrats  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
Madera County | Patchwork Nation
Madera County, CA | BOOM TOWNS
Map
Hardship IndexThe hardest county to live in is set at 100 and the easiest at 0. This is meant as a comparative snapshot of how difficult life is for the average resident of a given county. 
08-20100 - 100: 37PopulationBasic Demographics
Population: 148,333
Median income: $39,038EducationYear: 2000
High school graduates (percent) : 65.40%College graduates (percent) : 12.00%Year: 2003Adult Illiteracy (percent) : 28.52%Hardship Index
Shows Joblessness Drops, Foreclosures IncreaseReligionNumber of residents per 1,000 who identify with each religion
Winter  2011  January  USWest  California  state  county  MaderaCounty  BoomTowns  YoungExurbs  CA-19  PatchworkNation  maps  politics  republicans  democrats  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
File:Ca23 109.gif - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Map of 23rd Congressional District:  Coastal sections of Ventura County, Santa Barbara County and San Luis Obispo County.  Cities and towns: San Luis Obispo, Grover Beach, Santa Maria, Isla Vista, Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, Ventura, Oxnard and Port Hueneme.
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  profile  district  state  USWest  California  congressional-district  MoniedBurbs  NewDiversity  PatchworkNation  coast  VenturaCounty  SantaBarbaraCounty  SanLuisObispoCounty  CA-23  maps  politics  republicans  democrats  election  filetype:gif  media:image 
january 2011 by ahasteve
California's 23rd congressional district - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
California's 23rd congressional district runs along the coasts of Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. The current Representative for this district is Democrat Lois Capps.The district is moderately to heavily (in some places) Democratic with Capps winning the last election (2006) with 65% of the vote. John Kerry received 58% of the vote in this district in 2004; George W. Bush received 40%. The district voted for Arnold Schwarzenegger 54-41% in 2006, Dianne Feinstein 62-32% in 2006, Barbara Boxer 60-35% in 2004. Proportionally, it is one of the narrowest districts in the US. referred to as "the district that disappears at high tide." It is also an example of the preservation of the common interests of voters. If the district was distributed among the adjacent inland districts there would be less effective representation of coastal interests, with regards to fisheries, tourism, development, and offshore oil drilling. Its largest town is the heavily industrial Oxnard.
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  profile  district  state  USWest  California  congressional-district  CA-23  MoniedBurbs  NewDiversity  PatchworkNation  coast  VenturaCounty  SantaBarbaraCounty  SanLuisObispoCounty  politics  republicans  democrats  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
Orange County | Patchwork Nation
Orange County, CA
Map
Hardship Index
The hardest county to live in is set at 100 and the easiest at 0.
This is meant as a comparative snapshot of how difficult life is for the average resident of a given county. 08-2010
From 0 -- 100:  27
Population
Basic Demographics
Population: 3,010,759
Median income: $65,110
EducationYear: 2000
High school graduates (percent) : 79.50%College graduates (percent) : 31.00%Year: 2003Adult Illiteracy(percent) : 26.01%
Number of residents per 1,000 who identify with each religion
Winter  2011  January  USWest  California  politics  republicans  democrats  district  congressional-district  CA-40  CA-42  CA-44  CA-46  CA-48  CA-47  OrangeCounty  MoniedBurbs  profile  maps  PatchworkNation  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
California's 42nd congressional district - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
California's 42nd congressional district covers parts of Los Angeles, Orange, and San Bernardino counties in Southern California. The current Representative for this district is Republican Gary Miller.It is the second wealthiest district in the state and one of the wealthiest in the country. The median income for the district was $90,568 in 2008, nearly twice the national average. The district is also racially diverse, much more educated than the nation's population as a whole[2], and very conservative. The district overwhelmingly voted for George W. Bush in 2004 over John Kerry. Since the district was reconfigured in 2000, it has not supported a Democrat in any state or federal election and is one of the state's most reliably Republican strongholds.
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  profile  district  state  USWest  California  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  42ndDistrict  MissionViejo  YorbaLinda  Brea  LaHabra  DiamondBar  Chino  RowlandHeights  CA-42  EstablishedWealth  MoniedBurbs  County  OrangeCounty  LosAngelesCounty  SanBernardinoCounty  politics  republicans  democrats  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
File:2010 House elections.svg - Wikimedia Commons
Map of United States Congressional Districts; Republican or Democrat elected in 2010
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  state  PatchworkNation  district  maps  congressional-district  2010  election  democrats  republicans  politics 
january 2011 by ahasteve
File:WA-districts-108.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Map of all Washington districts1st district, 2nd district, 3rd district, 4th district, 5th district, 6th district, 7th district, 8th district, 9th district, 10th district
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  district  state  USWest  Washington  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  maps  politics  republicans  democrats  election  filetype:jpg  media:image 
january 2011 by ahasteve
List of United States congressional districts - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
List of all Washington districts
1st district, 2nd district, 3rd district, 4th district, 5th district, 6th district, 7th district, 8th district, 9th district, 10th district
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  district  state  USWest  Washington  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  politics  republicans  democrats  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
File:UT-districts-108.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Map of all Utah districts1st district, 2nd district, 3rd district, 4th district, to be seated in 2013
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  district  state  USWest  Utah  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  maps  politics  republicans  democrats  election  filetype:jpg  media:image 
january 2011 by ahasteve
File:TX-districts-109.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Map of all Texas districts1st district, 2nd district, 3rd district, 4th district, 5th district, 6th district, 7th district, 8th district, 9th district, 10th district, 11th district, 12th district, 13th district, 14th district, 15th district, 16th district, 17th district, 18th district, 19th district, 20th district, 21st district, 22nd district, 23rd district, 24th district, 25th district, 26th district, 27th district, 28th district, 29th district, 30th district, 31st district, 32nd district, 33rd district, to be seated in 2013, 34th district, to be seated in 2013, 35th district, to be seated in 2013, 36th district, to be seated in 2013
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  district  state  USWest  Texas  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  maps  politics  republicans  democrats  election  filetype:jpg  media:image  Texas 
january 2011 by ahasteve
List of United States congressional districts - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
List of all Texas districts
1st district, 2nd district, 3rd district, 4th district, 5th district, 6th district, 7th district, 8th district, 9th district, 10th district, 11th district, 12th district, 13th district, 14th district, 15th district, 16th district, 17th district, 18th district, 19th district, 20th district, 21st district, 22nd district, 23rd district, 24th district, 25th district, 26th district, 27th district, 28th district, 29th district, 30th district, 31st district, 32nd district, 33rd district, to be seated in 2013, 34th district, to be seated in 2013, 35th district, to be seated in 2013, 36th district, to be seated in 2013
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  district  state  USWest  Texas  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  politics  republicans  democrats  election  Texas 
january 2011 by ahasteve
List of United States congressional districts - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
At-large, 1st district, obsolete since 1990 census, 2nd district, obsolete since 1990 census; Territory, obsolete since statehood in 1889
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  district  state  USWest  Montana  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  politics  republicans  democrats  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
File:CO-districts-108.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Map of all Colorado districts1st district, 2nd district, 3rd district, 4th district, 5th district, 6th district, 7th district
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  district  state  USWest  Colorado  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  politics  republicans  democrats  election  filetype:jpg  media:image 
january 2011 by ahasteve
List of United States congressional districts - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
List of all Colorado districts
1st district, 2nd district, 3rd district, 4th district, 5th district, 6th district, 7th district
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  district  state  USWest  Colorado  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  politics  republicans  democrats  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
File:CA-districts-108.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Map: California congressional districts since 20031st district, 2nd district, 3rd district, 4th district, 5th district, 6th district, 7th district, 8th district, 9th district, 10th district, 11th district, 12th district, 13th district, 14th district, 15th district, 16th district, 17th district, 18th district, 19th district, 20th district, 21st district, 22nd district, 23rd district, 24th district, 25th district, 26th district, 27th district, 28th district, 29th district, 30th district, 31st district, 32nd district, 33rd district, 34th district, 35th district, 36th district, 37th district, 38th district, 39th district, 40th district, 41st district, 42nd district, 43rd district, 44th district, 45th district, 46th district, 47th district, 48th district, 49th district, 50th district, 51st district, 52nd district, 53rd district
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  district  state  USWest  California  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  maps  politics  republicans  democrats  election  filetype:jpg  media:image 
january 2011 by ahasteve
List of United States congressional districts - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
List of all California Districts California congressional districts since 2003
1st district, 2nd district, 3rd district, 4th district, 5th district, 6th district, 7th district, 8th district, 9th district, 10th district, 11th district, 12th district, 13th district, 14th district, 15th district, 16th district, 17th district, 18th district, 19th district, 20th district, 21st district, 22nd district, 23rd district, 24th district, 25th district, 26th district, 27th district, 28th district, 29th district, 30th district, 31st district, 32nd district, 33rd district, 34th district, 35th district, 36th district, 37th district, 38th district, 39th district, 40th district, 41st district, 42nd district, 43rd district, 44th district, 45th district, 46th district, 47th district, 48th district, 49th district, 50th district, 51st district, 52nd district, 53rd district
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  district  state  USWest  California  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  politics  republicans  democrats  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
File:AZ-districts-108.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Map: Arizona districts 1st district, 2nd district, 3rd district, 4th district, 5th district, 6th district, 7th district, 8th district, 9th district, to be seated in 2013
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  district  state  USWest  Arizona  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  maps  politics  republicans  democrats  election  filetype:jpg  media:image 
january 2011 by ahasteve
List of United States congressional districts - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
List of all Arizona districts 1st district, 2nd district, 3rd district, 4th district, 5th district, 6th district, 7th district, 8th district, 9th district, to be seated in 2013
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  district  state  USWest  Arizona  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  politics  republicans  democrats  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
List of United States congressional districts - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This is a complete list of congressional districts for representation in the United States House of Representatives. The quantity (apportionment) and boundaries (redistricting) of districts are determined after each census, although in some cases states have changed the boundaries more than once per census. This list includes the 435 current and over 200 obsolete districts. It also includes 11 future districts created for the 113th Congress for those states gaining Congressional seats. The boundaries of districts often shift with each redistricting. Over time, the region and demographics represented in a district can change substantially. Furthermore, districts sometimes retain the same boundaries while changing their district numbers.
Winter  2011  January  wikipedia  district  state  congressional-district  PatchworkNation  politics  republicans  democrats  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
San Luis Obispo County | Patchwork Nation
San Luis Obispo County, CA
MORE CALIFORNIA COUNTIES | MONIED 'BURBS
Hardship Index
The hardest county to live in is set at 100 and the easiest at 0. This is meant as a comparative snapshot of how difficult life is for the average resident of a given county. 
08-2010
0 - 100: 27
Population
Basic Demographics
Population: 265,297
Median income: $45,412EducationYear: 2000
High school graduates (percent) : 85.60%College graduates (percent) : 27.00%Year: 2003Adult Illiteracy(percent) : 10.05%Number of residents per 1,000 who identify with each religion
Winter  2011  January  USWest  California  SanLuisObispoCounty  Cambria  93428  MoniedBurbs  PatchworkNation  county  community  congressional-district  district  CA-23  CA-22  NewDiversity  politics  republicans  democrats  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
Small Town America | Patchwork Nation
DISTRICT TYPE -- Small Town America:  Rural and small town districts. Aging and declining populations with Evangelical and Mainline Protestant presence. Politics. House Elections. Votes by Issue. Political State of Play.Household Income. Employment Sectors. Age. Ethnicity. Education. Evangelical Meter.
Winter  2011  January  regional  community  PatchworkNation  neighborhoods  district  politics  elections  income  employment-sectors  age  ethnicity  education  religion  SmallTownAmerica  republicans  democrats  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
Christian Conservative | Patchwork Nation
DISTRICT TYPE -- Christian Conservative:  White Evangelical Christian populations. Lower and middle income with sizable elderly concentrations. Politics. House Elections. Votes by Issue. Political State of Play.Household Income. Employment Sectors. Age. Ethnicity. Education. Evangelical Meter.
Winter  2011  January  regional  community  PatchworkNation  neighborhoods  district  politics  elections  income  employment-sectors  age  ethnicity  education  religion  ChristianConservative  republicans  democrats  election 
january 2011 by ahasteve
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