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aries1988 : diplomacy   38

梁文道:中國用不着窗口
为什么中央要这么做?难道他们不怕这个行动会在西方媒体和政界留下一个坏印象,让全世界更加相信「香港已死」的说法?难道他们没有想过在新冷战开打的今天,香港可以再度扮演国家对外窗口的角色吗?答案其实很简单,他们还真的不怕,而且也根本用不着香港再去做什么窗口了。

中国在这场新冷战早就做好了最坏打算,完全可以走上一条和西方对决的道路,同时以此对内激励民心,让他们知道未来几年的苦日子全是西方人搞鬼,从而凝聚向心力和稳定合法性。再大不了,也只是重新闭关锁国,靠着自己内部庞大的市场和政府在民间汲取的资源熬过去。而且别忘了中国早非吴下阿蒙,尽管「一带一路」陆续传来受挫的消息,但它无论如何也太不可能在国际上被彻底孤立到当年只能依靠香港的地步。
hongkong  diplomacy  future 
october 2018 by aries1988
王戴勃:央视记者英国闹场,折射中国外交“亮剑”困局|深度|端传媒 Initium Media
针对宣传工作,习近平强调“敢抓敢管,敢于亮剑”。在外宣系统中,这句话被引申为“必须始终站在党和国家的立场,旗帜鲜明、理直气壮地发出中国声音、阐明中国观点、讲明中国立场,绝不能失语、缺位。”在针对敏感问题时,要“正面交锋、敢于亮剑、坚决批驳、严厉回击,绝不能当左右迎合的‘摇摆人’、态度暧昧的‘两面派’、独善其身的‘老好人’。外宣工作, 需要的是‘战士’,绝不需要‘绅士’。”

无论是王天安、瑞典游客还是孔琳琳事件,都凸显出中国在处理外交争议时缺乏有效的沟通方式,不会也不愿运用西方人广为接受的公关手段为自己争取道义和情感支持,而这其实正是中国政府眼中的“敌对势力”最擅长的。
china  pr  diplomacy  today 
october 2018 by aries1988
被忽视的历史拐点:德国占领“胶州湾”
1888年,威廉二世即位。此时的德国,资本主义发展强劲,成为欧洲新霸主,其影响力超过法国。威廉二世的政策也就由先前的“欧洲强权”转为“世界强权”,不再满足于欧洲霸主地位,期待在世界发挥更大作用。

位于山东半岛东南岸的胶州湾一处。它的缺点是位于大陆上,因此占领之后容易与中国发生纠纷;不过在山东的德国天主教会一定会给予有效的保护和支援。而且还有一个情况是,只有当已有铁路网集中在那里的时候,胶州湾才能在商业上有价值。胶州湾的优点也很明显,德国海军部认为,胶州的海港是宽畅的,且几乎对各个方向都能避风;缺点是其太偏北,冬季不是不冻港。德国外交部及前驻中国公使巴兰德、现任公使绅珂都认为胶州湾是值得推荐的一个地点,且获取交涉也比较容易,因为只需与中国政府打交道。

向中国驻俄公使许景澄作同样表示,并且要向中国公使特别强调:“即从中国的观点上看来,一个强大的德国舰队在中国领海内将是何等有益;因为它将对其他国家的势力造成一个均势,因而对维持东亚平衡颇有贡献。”

对许景澄的回答,马沙尔解释道:“英有香港,法有东京,德无之。且俄舰已有海口度冬矣。”

许景澄继续解释:“俄系暂泊在水,不再陆。借地则失自主权。”

金楷理坦率表示,他以“德人资格”对拉度林所说的这些话,“完全与他中国官员的职务相符合”,这样的占领不仅于德国有利,“而且对中国本身也有利,因为中国所遇到其他列强的贪得无厌将因德国海军力量的存在,远东均势的维持而得到保障。”为求做到这点,故必须有一个船只能自由停泊和自由行动的海港,而且德国商业能从这个海港得到保护。金楷理对拉度林表示,他今天所说的这些意思,中国公使许景澄完全明白,但是许景澄“没有勇气照这个意思在北京方面去做”。
qing  diplomacy  disaster  deutschland  history  1890s  shandong 
september 2018 by aries1988
日本与沙俄之战:一战的东亚版本
为了鼓舞日本国民,从1968年开始,作家司马辽太郎在《产经新闻》发表连载小说《坂上之云》,以明治陆军“骑兵之父”秋山好古、被评为“智谋如涌”的海军参谋秋山真之、创作俳句《法隆寺》的诗人正冈子规为主人公,描绘了从明治维新到日俄战争的30余年历史,希望以一本“乐观主义者的故事”来唤醒日本国民对于重建战后日本的热情。“坂上之云”便比喻 当年的日本人一边追逐着“山坡上的云”一边前进,来自明治时代的昂扬感激励起战后日本人重新建设经济强国。

历史上被称为“第〇次世界大战”的战争有很多,如丘吉尔认为普鲁士同盟与法奥俄同盟之间的七年战争(1756-1763)是最早的世界大战,拿破仑战争(1803-1815)、普鲁士统一战争 (1864-1871)都有过类似称呼。相比之下,日俄战争(1904-1905)得获此名的逻辑更为直接:正如二战爆发由一战结束后的“分赃不均”及过度制裁德国而埋下种子,一战爆发的始源也来自于日俄战争后国际关系的变动。

随着日俄战争走向尾声,沙俄的实力进一步遭到削弱,不得不从中国东北与朝鲜半岛退出,英俄矛盾骤然减小;另一方面德奥同盟的力量愈发强大,法国在北非殖民地面临巨大挑战,只能寻求英国的支持,这也促使英国与法国的盟友——沙俄之间越走越近。

日俄战争本质上是英国与日本、沙俄与法国两大利益集团在远东的一次博弈,战争虽然以日本取胜、沙俄落败,但两大集团却成功形成相互认同,进而以互相认可势力范围、签订协约为基础,成立“协约国”集团。从这个角度讲,第一次世界大战并不是“三国协约”,而是包括日本在内的“四国协约”。

倒退回“三足鼎立”时代,如果没有沙俄与日本之间矛盾升级,欧洲的利益关系很可能出现另一种形态:事实上英德两国在1900年已经达成《扬子江协定》,规定双方在华利益范围;1901年德国甚至提出与英国、日本结为“三国同盟”。如果同盟成立,那么一战的对立形态就不再是“英法俄”对阵“德奥土”,而有可能变成“英德”对阵“俄法”,那无论一战的结果如何,20世纪乃至于现代历史的发展都会完全不同。
1900s  war  japan  russia  diplomacy  explained  ww1  europe  china 
september 2018 by aries1988
Understanding China’s Rise Under Xi Jinping -- By The Honourable Kevin Rudd
the territorial expanse of the Chinese Empire virtually doubled, occupying some 10 per cent of the world’s land area, 30 percent of the world’s population, and 32 percent of the world’s economy.
Nonetheless, for those who are professionally charged with interpreting China’s future, as you are in this great military academy, it means that we must also take time to understand China’s past. To understand how China perceives the world around it. And to understand how it now perceives its own national destiny in the turbulent world of the 21st century.

# Xi’s Political Authority

there is the personality of Xi Jinping himself as a source of political authority. For those who have met him and had conversations with him, he has a strong intellect, a deep sense of his country’s and the world’s history, and a deeply defined worldview of where he wants to lead his country. Xi Jinping is no accidental president. It’s as if he has been planning for this all his life.

# Xi Jinping’s View of the Party

The Communist Party would continue, therefore, as an unapologetically Leninist party for the future.

China’s historical greatness, across its dynastic histories, lay in a strong, authoritarian hierarchical Confucian state.

# Seven Core Priorities

China’s emerging worldview, in my own estimation, is best understood as a set of seven concentric circles.

## The Party

## National Unity

From Beijing’s perspective, Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Taiwan represent a core set of security interests. Each within itself represents a confluence of external and internal security factors.

## The Economy and Environmental Sustainability

Indeed, the systematic treatment of the environment as simply an “economic externality” to the Chinese development process led to wholesale environmental destruction. China is now paying the price.

## China’s Neighbouring States - Securing China’s Continental Periphery across Eurasia

Historically, they’ve been the avenue through which China’s national security has been threatened, resulting in successive foreign invasions.
The failure of the Great Wall of China to provide security from foreign invasion is a classic case in point.

## China’s Maritime Periphery - East Asia and the West Pacific

Xi Jinping has made plain he does not see China’s role as simply replicating the current US-led liberal international order for the future.
China has consistently said that this was an order created by the Western, victorious, and by-and-large colonial powers after the Second World War.
australia  origin  history  usa  world  china  future  sinology  politics  diplomacy  analysis  xi  thinking 
march 2018 by aries1988
UN secretary-general António Guterres on Trump and North Korea
“We were invited to a stadium to see a show of what is called Massive Gymnastics. And it included, during one hour and a half, 15,000 children doing all kinds of things . . . complicated gymnastic things, acrobatics gymnastics. During one hour and a half, 15,000 children . . . and there is not one single wrong movement. This tells you about the nature of the society . . . ”

“A crucial lesson for my political life is this very simple [psychological] analysis,” he explains. “When you have two persons in a room, you do not have two, you have six: what each person is; what each person thinks he or she is; and what each person thinks the other is. This is the reason personal relations are so complex. But what is true for persons is true for groups, and countries,” he adds.
UN  interview  world  diplomacy  2017  leader  peace  organization 
november 2017 by aries1988
曾磊:元朝是中国吗—对“元朝非中国”论的批判_爱思想

在21世纪的中国,有一部分网络写手操纵舆论,鼓吹元朝非中国论,他们找出很多似是而非的理由,对我国现存历史观进行挑战,影响了一部分人,应该看到,这种历史虚无主义观点不仅是错误的,而且其背后操纵者妄议我党、我国,这种错误的观点,必须予以坚决的辩证。笔者认为,必须重新认识大蒙古帝国、元朝和现代蒙古国之间的关系,才能彻底认清元朝历史问题,对中国历史的多民族性进行统一认识。

众所周知,外蒙古原本是我国领土,但是在1924年蒙古人民革命党的带领下建立了相对独立的政权。在1946年腐朽的国民党政府统治时期,以公民公投的形式获得了正式独立。任何一个爱国者都应该人知道这一历史事实,并且认识到弱国无外交的道理,我们不能让历史重演,不能再让任何一块中国领土从我们手里分裂出去,否则就是中华民族的罪人。

2006年,我国邻邦蒙古国举办了大蒙古国建国八百周年的活动,应蒙古国总统恩赫巴亚尔邀请,全国政协副主席徐匡迪将作为胡锦涛主席的特使,于10日至13日访问蒙古国,并出席了大蒙古国800周年纪念活动。
china  mongolia  history  today  diplomacy  debate  ethnic  nation  chinese  question 
november 2017 by aries1988
Panda politics: the hard truth about China’s cuddliest diplomat

Far more money, time and effort has been spent on saving the giant panda from extinction than on any other animal. As such, it is considered a touchstone species — if humans can’t rescue such an icon with all of this exertion, then what hope is there for less charismatic fauna?

“For China, pandas are the equivalent of the British royal family,” Nye tells the FT. “Like the royals, they are a terrific asset because you can put them on display. You trot them around the world and they add an enormous amount to the country’s soft power.”

In fact, the first recorded example of panda diplomacy dates back much further to 685 AD, when Empress Wu Zetian of the Tang dynasty presented a pair of live bears to neighbouring Japan.

Australia, France and Canada all received pandas after agreeing to sell nuclear technology and uranium to China. Scotland accepted a pair of pandas in 2011 as part of an agreement to share offshore drilling technology and supply salmon to China, while the Dutch loan this year came as the Netherlands agreed to supply advanced healthcare services.

Chinese and western experts all agree there is no scientific reason for producing so many animals in captivity if they cannot be released in the wild. But after struggling for so many years to produce even a few surviving cubs, the machinery of panda production is now almost unstoppable, thanks to financial incentives and rivalry between competing agencies.
zoo  chinese  politics  diplomacy  animal  reportage  analysis  numbers  economy 
november 2017 by aries1988
The H-Word by Perry Anderson — follow the leader
typical of Britain’s wider role, which blended the firepower and reach of the Royal Navy with subtler forms of influence. Britain’s informal empire rested less on gunboat diplomacy than on technology, money and ideas. The global cable network, the “Westminster system”, common law, the religion of free trade, the vision of modernity offered by the Crystal Palace and the Great Exhibition of 1851: all these together defined its hegemony.
world  history  politics  diplomacy 
august 2017 by aries1988
How to Deal With North Korea

The myth holds that Korea and the Kim dynasty are one and the same. It is built almost entirely on the promise of standing up to a powerful and menacing foreign enemy. The more looming the threat—and Trump excels at looming—the better the narrative works for Kim Jong Un. Nukes are needed to repel this threat. They are the linchpin of North Korea’s defensive strategy, the single weapon standing between barbarian hordes and the glorious destiny of the Korean people—all of them, North and South. Kim is the great leader, heir to divinely inspired ancestors who descended from Mount Paektu with mystical, magical powers of leadership, vision, diplomatic savvy, and military genius. Like his father, Kim Jong Il, and grandfather Kim Il Sung before him, Kim is the anointed defender of all Koreans, who are the purest of all races. Even South Korea, the Republic of Korea, should be thankful for Kim because, if not for him, the United States would have invaded long ago.

And with only a few of its worst weapons, North Korea could, probably within hours, kill millions. This means an American first strike would likely trigger one of the worst mass killings in human history.

If mass civilian killings were not a factor—if the war were a military contest alone—South Korea by itself could defeat its northern cousin. It would be a lopsided fight. South Korea’s economy is the world’s 11th-largest, and in recent decades the country has competed with Saudi Arabia for the distinction of being the No. 1 arms buyer. And behind South Korea stands the formidable might of the U.S. military.

They are believed to have tunnels stretching under the DMZ and into South Korea. Special forces could be inserted almost anywhere in South Korea by tunnel, aircraft, boat, or the North Korean navy’s fleet of miniature submarines.

They could wreak havoc on American and South Korean air operations and defenses, and might be able to smuggle a nuclear device to detonate under Seoul itself.

Kim Jong Un, with his bad haircut and his legion of note-taking, big-hat-wearing, kowtowing generals, would be gone. South Korea’s fear of invasion from the North, gone. The menace of the state’s using chemical and biological weapons, gone. The nuclear threat, gone.

Kim may end up trapped in the circular logic of his strategy. He seeks to avoid destruction by building a weapon that, if used, assures his destruction.

Since I have been living here for so long, I am not scared anymore, said Gwon Hyuck-chae, an elderly barber in Munsan, about five miles from the DMZ. Even if there was a war now, it would not give us enough time to flee. We would all just die in an instant.
korea  2017  diplomacy  asia  usa  war  politics 
july 2017 by aries1988
Asie du Sud Est : la diplomatie du bambou
Rivalités en Asie du Sud Est et en mer de Chine : concentration de puissances nucléaires, résistances aux pressions extérieures - notamment celles des grandes puissances, prospérité de Singapour, essor du Vietnam, autonomie et coopérations diverses, anniversaire de l'ASEAN... Quels enjeu[...]
diplomacy  podcast  numbers  china  asia  banyan 
may 2017 by aries1988
Europe, Syrie, Irak, Russie… les dossiers qui attendent Jean-Yves Le Drian aux affaires étrangères

La prochaine Assemblée générale des Nations unies, à l’automne, sera l’occasion pour M. Macron de faire entendre à nouveau la voix de la France. « Le “dire” en politique étrangère est très important, et il y a une attente sur le nouveau président français », analyse Bertrand Badie, professeur à Sciences Po. Celui-ci souligne qu’Emmanuel Macron, qui se veut ouvert à la mondialisation comme au multilatéralisme dans les relations internationales, se devrait de lancer depuis la tribune de l’Organisation des Nations unies une initiative forte « par exemple sur une gouvernance mondiale des migrations » ou sur « une gouvernance sociale mondiale ». Cela laisse au Quai d’Orsay jusqu’à septembre pour plancher sur le sujet.
diplomacy  list  france  world 
may 2017 by aries1988
The U.S. wants to stop North Korean missiles before they launch. That may not be a great idea. - The Washington Post
Alternatively, they might preempt an attack that was about to take place, by targeting the basic command, control and communications systems that are used to launch missiles. This might work better than conventional antimissile systems that a U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff report describes as trying “to hit a bullet with a bullet.”

This means that it is very hard to use cyber weapons to make credible threats against other states. As soon as you have made a credibly-specific threat, you have likely given your target enough information to figure out the vulnerability that you want to exploit.

Cyber operations rely on deception, but nuclear deterrence relies on clear communication.
diplomacy  war  nuclear  cyberwar 
march 2017 by aries1988
Trump marks the end of America as world’s ‘indispensable nation’
This does not mean a “return” to a mythical American isolationism. This powerful, commercially minded nation has never cut itself off from the rest of the world, not even in the 1930s. What it does mean is a return to national solipsism, with a much narrower definition of American interests and a reluctance to act in the world except to protect those narrow interests. To put it another way, America may once again start behaving like a normal nation.

All this was profoundly in US interests, but only when viewed from a most enlightened perspective. Americans came to that enlightenment only after a world war, followed by the rise of Soviet communism, which persuaded them to define their interests broadly and accept responsibility for a liberal world order that benefited others as much as, sometimes more than, it benefited them.

The US is no longer in the reassurance business. For decades an abnormal US foreign policy has aimed at denying Russia and China spheres of interest. That made sense when upholding an order to avoid a breakdown like that of the first half of the 20th century. But a narrower reading of US interests does not require it. What interest is it of the US who exercises hegemony in east Asia and in eastern and central Europe?
history  usa  world  2016  future  diplomacy  opinion 
november 2016 by aries1988
Rethinking Franco-German Relations - The New York Times
French and German people don’t speak each other’s language, and literally don’t understand one another. That’s not just a linguistic issue; it is one that appears in every political and economic discussion. It also follows that politicians and central banks talk about economics in English, a foreign language in both nations, and so it’s hardly surprising that ordinary people feel excluded and lost.
comparison  diplomacy  france  germany  economy  history  economist  today  debate 
october 2016 by aries1988
Ending estrangement | The Economist
A hundred years ago Britain and Argentina were complementary economic superpowers. Britain built Argentina’s railway, which helped make Argentina one of the world’s ten richest countries, and bought 40% of its exports, mainly beef and grain. In 1914 Harrods, a fancy department store, opened its first overseas branch in Buenos Aires.
history  uk  argentina  latino  diplomacy 
may 2016 by aries1988
Friends and foes: rifts in the Middle East
Islamic State has no friends. But it has upended geopolitics in the Middle East and drawn America’s armed forces back to the region. Our “relationship mosaic” below summarises the friendships and enmities among countries, political groups and militant organisations in the Middle East. It provides a quick, simplified glimpse (the “neutral” category, for instance, embraces a large number of possibilities). Syria’s official al-Qaeda affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, is almost as isolated as IS: neither was invited to a conference of Syrian opposition groups convened this month by Saudi Arabia. The Syrian government is disliked by many countries, but supported by Iran and Russia. Russia’s relationship with Turkey deteriorated sharply after the Turks’ shooting-down of a Russian warplane in November. The Iraqi Kurds count numerous friends and no sworn enemies. America must play a delicate diplomatic game in holding together unlikely allies.
2015  middle-east  infographics  diplomacy  geopolitics 
december 2015 by aries1988
Stop the Second World War comparisons
When I asked a Finnish historian whether Finns were ashamed of having fought alongside Hitler, he asked me whether Britons were ashamed of having fought alongside Stalin. Touche, I thought.

The Chinese are drawing a false analogy, too. Japanese warships aren’t about to motor off to create a new 1940s-style Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. Even so, as China tries to realign the region’s order, the Second World War will continue to come in handy. A Chinese “Godwin’s Law” is still some time away.
history  narrative  today  war  diplomacy  opinion 
may 2015 by aries1988
Old, New and Unusual Alliances in the Middle East
A look at where Iran exerts influence across the region and at the emerging Saudi coalition.
explained  state  diplomacy  middle-east  today 
march 2015 by aries1988
Le Brésil a besoin d’une autre diplomatie
Brasilia devrait réviser sa géopolitique régionale, et se rendre compte que la Colombie a dépassé l’Argentine dans tous les domaines et que le véritable partenaire latino-américain à la hauteur des espérances brésiliennes est le Mexique. Le jour où les deux chancelleries mettront de côté leurs préséances et rivalités, le duo Brésil-Mexique pourra enfin jouer un rôle équivalent au moteur franco-allemand de l’UE. Si tant est, bien sûr, que l’intégration régionale de l’Amérique latine soit autre chose qu’une rhétorique pour les toasts de repas officiels. L’idéologie a déjà fait suffisamment de dégâts.
americas  diplomacy 
november 2014 by aries1988
Foreign Powers Buy Influence at Think Tanks - NYTimes.com
Last year, Japan began an effort to persuade American officials to accelerate negotiations over a free-trade agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, one of Japan’s top priorities. The country already had lobbyists on retainer, from the Washington firm of Akin Gump, but decided to embark on a broader campaign.

To bolster the new group’s credibility, Japanese officials sought validation from outside the halls of Congress. Within weeks, they received it from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to which Japan has been a longtime donor.

The two Persian Gulf monarchies are also engaged in a battle with each other to shape Western opinion, with Qatar arguing that Muslim Brotherhood-style political Islam is the Arab world’s best hope for democracy, and the United Arab Emirates seeking to persuade United States policy makers that the Brotherhood is a dangerous threat to the region’s stability.

“It is the self-censorship that really affects us over time,” the scholar said. “But the fund-raising environment is very difficult at the moment, and Brookings keeps growing and it has to support itself.”
today  usa  think  tank  diplomacy  world 
september 2014 by aries1988
The Vietnam Solution
How a former enemy became a crucial U.S. ally in balancing China’s rise

Chinese administrative norms were “internalized to the point that their alien origins became irrelevant.” The fierce desire of all Vietnamese to be separate from China was reinforced by their contact with the Chams and Khmers to the south, who were influenced by non-Chinese civilizations, particularly India’s. Given their intense similarity with the Chinese, the Vietnamese are burdened by the narcissism of small differences, and this makes events from the past more vivid to them.

Vietnam’s victories over China and over the Chams and Khmers in the south helped to forge a distinct national identity—a process spurred by China’s inability, up through modern times, to let Vietnam alone. In 1946, China colluded with France to have the Chinese occupation forces in northern Vietnam succeeded by French forces. The Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping “never lost his visceral hatred of the Vietnamese,” Templer writes. In addition to deciding in 1979 to send 100,000 Chinese into Vietnam, Deng devised a policy of “bleeding Hanoi white,” by entangling Vietnam in a guerrilla war in Cambodia.

The South China Sea links the Indian Ocean with the western Pacific, connecting global sea routes through the Malacca, Sunda, Lombok, and Makassar Straits. These choke points see the passage of more than half of the world’s annual merchant-fleet tonnage and a third of all maritime traffic worldwide. The oil transported through the Malacca Strait from the Indian Ocean, en route to East Asia by way of the South China Sea, is triple the amount that passes through the Suez Canal and 15 times the amount that passes through the Panama Canal. Some two-thirds of South Korea’s energy supplies, nearly 60 percent of Japan’s and Taiwan’s energy supplies, and about 80 percent of China’s crude-oil imports come through the South China Sea.

Vietnam and China have largely settled the problems created by the Gulf of Tonkin—in which China’s Hainan Island largely blocks the northern Vietnamese coastline from the open sea—by dividing the energy-rich gulf in half. “But we cannot accept the cow’s tongue,” he said, meaning China’s historic nine-dashed line in the South China Sea. “China says the area is in dispute. We say no. The cow’s tongue violates the claims of five countries.”

A Western defense expert in Hanoi tells me that the sale makes no logical sense: “There is going to be real sticker shock for the Vietnamese when they find out just how much it costs merely to maintain these subs.” More important, the expert says, the Vietnamese will have to train crews to use them—a generational undertaking. “To counter Chinese subs,” the expert says, “they would have been better off concentrating on anti-submarine warfare and littoral defense.” Clearly, the Vietnamese bought these submarines as prestige items, to say We’re serious.
diplomacy  usa  china  vietnam  banyan  nation  origin  history 
may 2014 by aries1988
北大未名站 同主题阅读: 从14到19世纪的欧洲外交与战争史看中国之世界战略 ...
14世纪到19世纪的外交和战争告诉我们:

第一,一个国家需要有至少一个有力量的同盟国,一般奉行远交近攻的战略,但不绝对。
对中国而言,这个国家可能是巴西,可能是法国,也可能是俄罗斯。从长远看,是巴西的
可能性更大。

第二,盟国少的国家可以打败盟国众多的国家。

第三,战争经验少的陆军和海军可以击败号称世界第一的超级大国的陆军和海军。

第四,指挥比装备更重要。

第五,财政非常重要,金钱外交也相当重要,法国人和英国人曾很善于运用这点。

第六,也是最重要的一点,利益永远超过意识形态,天主教国家可以打天主教同盟,基督
教国家可以与伊斯兰教的教主——哈里发结成同盟。那种以专制或民主来划分阵营的思想
是不符合实际的。
diplomacy  history  nutshell  europe  war  china 
january 2014 by aries1988
俞天任 : 有一个邻居叫俄罗斯(下) _ 腾讯 · 大家
俄国这次出兵占领满洲的直接后果就是发生了日俄战争。依靠甲午战争后大清的两亿三千万两白银赔款中的几乎一大半增强起来的日本联合舰队把俄国远东,波罗的海和黑海这三个舰队全给灭了两个。别看普京一开口就是“俄罗斯只有两个盟友,那就是陆军和海军”,实际上他们只有陆军。一个国家的主力舰队被消灭以后再重建海军是几乎不可能的。经过日俄战争以后,一直到现在俄国实际上是没有海军的国家。就是在冷战时期,苏维埃红海军也从来就没有让美国海军头疼过。
应该着重指出在沙俄大军进入满洲的同时在黑龙江东岸制造的“江东64屯惨案”,这个惨案的性质特别恶劣。江东64屯大屠杀不是发生在战时,江东64屯所在的地方都不能算“被占领地区”,就算根据不平等的《中俄爱晖条约》,那地方也已经在几十年前划归了俄国,这种大规模屠杀侨民的行动,用现在的语言就是“种族净化”。现在要到俄国远东地区去找土著黄种俄罗斯人,不比找大熊猫或者东北虎更加容易。
russia  history  diplomacy 
july 2013 by aries1988
Why China and Japan Can’t Get Along - NYTimes.com
Japan’s sins of omission in dealing fully with its past hinder its present foreign policy, but they pale in comparison with China’s historical sense of entitlement to regional hegemony and its virulent new form of state-sanctioned anti-Japanese nationalism. Sadly, these chauvinist attitudes are unlikely to change under the new Communist leadership installed in November.
instapaper_sav  instapaper_broken  china  japan  history  analysis  diplomacy 
january 2013 by aries1988
America Forgets the World by Jonathan Freedland | NYRblog | The New York Review of Books
And yet the larger picture that emerged was of a country looking inward rather than outward. It was telling that both men, but especially Romney, frequently sought to shift away from foreign policy altogether and talk about the economy instead.
googlereader  usa  diplomacy 
october 2012 by aries1988
中日交恶让熊猫外交失色 - 纽约时报中文网 国际纵览
石原发表声明六天后,这只熊猫宝宝去世了。但据ABC新闻频道报道,“近三个月后,尸体还保存在动物园的一个冷藏柜里。”

报道还说,“中国对出借的熊猫拥有完整的所有权。但东京官员称,他们没有收到来自北京的任何消息,不知要如何处理这个冷藏的小东西。”
googlereader  diplomacy  china  japan  panda 
september 2012 by aries1988
周公重诚意,日相服高义-吴澧-财新博客-新世纪的常识传播者-财新网
日红两国,如今经济上的联系很紧密。但在政治上,日本在相当一段时间内,仍然会很谨慎地平衡对红和对美关系。其实中国和日本有着文化渊源的共通性,对日外交,中国人应该有一些美国人不具备的优势。蒋公和毛公的故事告诉我们,给日本来点软实力,让日本政界要人感到大国之“义”,不失为睦邻之义。你看,即使小泉那样唱着美国流行歌曲的“新生代”,他其实也有义气的一面。
googlereader  diplomacy  paragon  asia 
august 2012 by aries1988
【外交学者】越南眼中的中国
越南和中国会成为朋友吗?越南和印度在南海搞合作将是检验越中友谊的最好试金石。
http://www.instapaper.com/read/215358825
china  diplomacy  asia 
august 2012 by aries1988
全球衰退之际的中国外交选择 - FT中文网
演讲者认为,中国作为世界主要国家之一,在制定此类外交事件的对策上仍然缺乏经验。中国的经济发展如此之快,新的挑战是如此巨大,一些政府官员还没有做好充分准备。中国的外交政策又是由不同的政府部门所制定,这方面亟需适当的协调和更强有力的领导。对于“世界的新领导者”这一地位,中国也需要时间不断改进自身使其名副其实。
http://www.instapaper.com/read/214481096
china  diplomacy 
august 2012 by aries1988

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