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aries1988 : earthquake   24

Japan: the next big quake
The government’s figures put the odds of a magnitude 8.0-plus Nankai Trough earthquake at 50 per cent in the next 20 years, 70 per cent in the next 30 years and 90 per cent in the next half century.

In the worst case of a magnitude 9.0 quake, close to land, Tokyo puts losses at ¥220tn ($2tn) for the first year alone. The amount is hard to imagine: 40 per cent of Japan’s GDP, equal to the market capitalisation of Apple, Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway, ExxonMobil and Facebook combined. Around three-quarters of that is property damage, most of it privately owned, and the rest is lost economic activity.

The worst fatality rates in Tohoku towns were about 10 per cent, whereas historic records suggest fatality rates of half or two-thirds for unprepared fishing villages after a similar tsunami in 1896. In total, 97 per cent of people in the Tohoku inundation area survived.

That reflects the benefits of engineering, early warning and evacuation.
japan  gis  government  planning  disaster  state  policy  manufacturing  infographics  earthquake 
october 2017 by aries1988
The school beneath the wave: the unimaginable tragedy of Japan’s tsunami
The trick is to preserve compassion without bearing each individual tragedy as your own;

In ancient times, this region of Japan, known as Tōhoku, was a notorious frontier realm of barbarians, goblins and bitter cold. Even today, it remains a remote, marginal, faintly melancholy place, the symbol of a rural tradition that, for city-dwellers, is no more than a folk memory.

Then darkness overcame him. Everyone who experienced the tsunami saw, heard and smelled something subtly different. Much depended upon where you were, and the obstacles that the water had to overcome to reach you. Some described a waterfall, cascading over sea wall and embankment. For others, it was a fast-rising flood between houses, deceptively slight at first, tugging trippingly at the feet and ankles, but quickly sucking and battering at legs and chests and shoulders. In colour, it was described as brown, grey, black, white.

A clock in a second-floor classroom at Okawa elementary school, which stopped at 3.36pm, about 50 minutes after the earthquake.
japan  earthquake  tsunami  school  human  error  children  death  japanese  2011  instapaper_favs  management  fail  2011/3/11 
october 2017 by aries1988
A century of earthquakes
A recent earthquake reduced large parts of central Italy to a pile of rubble and killed almost 270 people. Though shallow, the tremor was felt in buildings as far as Rome and Florence. At 6.2 magnitude, it was the second strongest in 35 years on the peninsula.
data  geology  earthquake  history 
august 2016 by aries1988
David’s Ankles: How Imperfections Could Bring Down the World’s Most Perfect Statue
For several hundred years, the David leaned at an angle of several degrees. That doesn’t sound like much, but when you’re dealing with six tons bearing down every second of every minute of every day of every year of every century, it is plenty. Hairline fractures worked their way slowly through the stone. The right leg is significantly worse than the left. As the tilt of the statue increases, the stress will move higher and higher up that leg, until — at the moment of failure — it will break off just below the knee.

for no discernible reason, my eyes would dart away from my interlocutor, urgently, right over one of his or her shoulders, and the shift would be so sudden that the person would whip his or her head around to see what on earth I was looking at — a policeman or an exotic bird or a runaway train — but it would turn out that there was nothing there at all. My gaze had been flicked away by a little spasm of social discomfort.

The David’s journey took four days, at the end of which it was installed, to much fanfare, out in the public square. It would stand in that same spot for the next 369 years, a period during which it would be shaken by thunder, hit by carts and smeared with bird feces.
social  self  anxiety  perfection  journalsim  florence  italia  history  art  state  today  preservation  earthquake  youth  philosophy  book 
august 2016 by aries1988
Babbage: Things visible and invisible
Stream Babbage: Things visible and invisible by The Economist from desktop or your mobile device
map  satellite  earthquake  prediction  future 
november 2015 by aries1988
How to Stay Safe When the Big One Comes - The New Yorker
For most of the past three years, I’ve worked as a book critic, which is not a job that affords me many opportunities to scare the living daylights out of my…
survive  tips  howto  earthquake 
august 2015 by aries1988
The Earthquake That Will Devastate Seattle
The first sign that the Cascadia earthquake has begun will be a compressional wave, radiating outward from the fault line. Compressional waves are fast-moving, high-frequency waves, audible to dogs and certain other animals but experienced by humans only as a sudden jolt.

When that tsunami is coming, you run, Jay Wilson, the chair of the Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission (OSSPAC), says. You protect yourself, you don’t turn around, you don’t go back to save anybody. You run for your life.

A grown man is knocked over by ankle-deep water moving at 6.7 miles an hour.

The brevity of our lives breeds a kind of temporal parochialism—an ignorance of or an indifference to those planetary gears which turn more slowly than our own.
2015  future  earthquake  usa  tsunami  explained  disaster 
july 2015 by aries1988
Video: Katmandu: Before the Quake
Katmandu’s ancient sites were woven into the vibrant social and religious fabric of the city. Made of brick and timber, many of these iconic buildings were lost in the earthquake that rocked Nepal.
video  religion  life  earthquake  memory 
april 2015 by aries1988
The chickens are restless
SEISMOLOGISTS tend to greet the idea that some animals know when an earthquake is coming with a sizeable degree of scepticism. Though reports of odd animal…
earthquake  animal  prediction 
april 2015 by aries1988
Why Earthquakes in China Are So Damaging
The subject of earthquake damage prevention symbolizes one of the central challenges of contemporary Chinese governance. At the federal level, China has good building codes, the willingness to invest in safe housing, and the means to respond quickly and effectively when tragedy strikes. But at the local level, where the country's population actually interacts with its government, difficulties with corruption and law enforcement mean that subsequent earthquakes will be more tragic than necessary.
government  earthquake 
july 2013 by aries1988
不应被忽视的危险_杂志频道_财新网
这些警告最终没有超出学术界。在最为重要的民用建筑防震措施上,仍然沿用汶川大地震后制定的防震规划,雅安当地的设防程度,还要低于汶川地区。
在芦山地震发生不到1秒钟,成都的许多人就收到了预警信号,这比地震波到来的时间提前了28秒
成都高新减灾研究所是一个民办机构,其所长王暾告诉财新记者,地震波从雅安传到成都需要33秒的时间,他们的系统反应时间为5秒,这相当于在地震波到达成都前的28秒,他们的系统就发出了预警。当地的相关部门和居民,只要手机上安装了地震预警终端应用软件,在接受到信息后,手机就会发出地震倒计时信号,提示他们迅速作出反应
理论研究表明,如预警时间为3秒,可使人员伤亡比减少14%,如为10秒,人员伤亡比减少39%,如预警时间为20秒,可使人员伤亡比减少63%
据成都高新减灾研究所统计,芦山地震发生后,预警信息分别在地震波到达前,提前5秒、28秒、43秒和53秒发布到雅安、成都、汶川和北川等地。覆盖人群包括:已开通“电视地震预警信息发布系统”的四川汶川、北川县26万电视观众;在新浪微博、腾讯微博的20多万粉丝;4000多名手机和计算机地震预警用户;北川中学、成都泡桐树小学等50多所学校8万余名师生
earthquake 
may 2013 by aries1988
活在地震带_杂志频道_财新网
在“5·12”之后,他们忙着整修房子,换新瓦片,进行加固。“该修的修,该换的换”。年轻人周俊说,在芦山民间传说中,开筑芦山县城的姜维,最后是被五马分尸,其胆就埋在了芦山北面的金顶阁,所以芦山人的胆子比较大。
reportage  earthquake  from:kindle 
may 2013 by aries1988
“4·20”地震见闻:孤岛与自救-三联生活周刊
几乎所有的采访对象回忆这次地震,都说毫无预兆。如果非要找点反常之处,温度可能是灾难来临前的唯一预兆。从去年冬天开始,四川就一反常态地少有阴冷,记忆中盆地里让人冷到骨头发痛的冬天被暖阳代替。春节时气温就达到20摄氏度。雅安邻近川西,温度历来比盆地中央的城市低几度,可吴红说,她感受到的春天也热得反常。地震前一周,每天气温都在19到30摄氏度之间,在初春时分,她已经穿了一周的裙子。
天气热且干。雅安素有“雨城”之称,它位于一个横放的U形口内,南、北、西三面都被高山包围,因此本来水汽充足,每年清明前后总是春雨不断。但今年不仅清明无雨,在吴红的记忆里,整个3月也只下了一场雨。而4月19日,也就是地震的前一天下午,雅安市狂风大作,暴雨如注,断续到晚上22点。
“这次地震和汶川那次不一样。那次是先听到像高压电和低压电碰在一起的嗡嗡声,声音又尖又长,然后就看到山上的石头往下滚。这次的声音是像地下小煤矿放炮时的闷响。”程红兵说。
张克亮是少有的在震区找到自己位置的志愿者,这一部分得益于他具备的专业知识。除了药品,他随身的一个黑色已经毛边的小包里,还带着两件东西,一是一本四川省交通地图——帮助他进入震区中心后,在芜杂的各种岔路中,找到新闻中所说的灾情严重的宝盛乡;另一个是他的药师资格证。他针对地震后可能发生的常见病准备了药品。“灾后很多人会饮食紊乱,有的志愿者甚至可能一天就喝了一瓶水,肠胃病比较多发,所以我带了一些藿香正气液。还有处理外伤的绷带、碘伏、纱布,需要消炎的广谱抗生素头孢、阿莫西林。不能用青霉素的人,我带了乙酰螺旋霉素片,还有专门给老年人的感冒咳嗽药,还有通宣理肺丸。
地震刚发生,无数拉着食物、水、药品的志愿者车队,就已经在奔赴灾区的路上了。对山上的曾琴一家来说,这些物资和关爱是他们梦寐以求的。但这些物资要到达他们手中,必须要完成信息的统计以及道路的通畅。大部分成为孤岛、散落深山中的村落,如果没有熟悉地形的人带路,并且用大型机械设备清除路障,很难有志愿者有能力将这些物资带入深山。志愿者的长处在于热情和快速反应,如何有效率地使用这些民间的救援力量,仍然是政府一个大的课题。与之前政府在保障大的路段和城市的井然有序相比,政府在这方面的进步并不多。既没有具备组织能力的大型民间组织,也没有和政府对接的渠道,大量个人的爱心和力量就在灾区肆意流散着,有时候甚至会对救灾形成一些负面的影响
4月21日晚,这是我到达王赵华和曾琴家中的第一个晚上。今天的晚饭要更丰盛也更热闹,好几个在外地打工和读书的家人都赶回来了,再加上我这个外来人,好像破除了一些孤岛的隔绝感。晚饭是两大碗新摘的春笋做的春笋焖腊肉,还有两盆卷心菜汤。借着暮光,一共9户人家,约20多人挤在帐篷中一张红色的小方桌边。“好多年都没有这么热闹了,五湖四海的都赶回来了,过年都没有回来这么齐。”曾琴有些欢喜地说。
reportage  earthquake  sichuan  disaster 
may 2013 by aries1988
The Science of Predicting the Future
If you want to know what’s going to happen in the future with any sort of accuracy, you need science. It’s the only thing that’s ever worked, and the more we do it, the better we get at it. This means we need to make the world safe for scientists to do science, we need to treat the science being done with the respect it deserves, and we need to improve and encourage communication between scientists and the public. Remember, somewhere, right now, a scientist is hard at work trying to understand how some part of this Universe works for the sole purpose of trying to protect you from what are otherwise completely unpredictable natural disasters.
http://www.instapaper.com/read/333030634
risk  scientist  society  future  italia  earthquake 
october 2012 by aries1988
中国首个地震预警系统通过科技成果鉴定
按照传播方式的不同,地震波分为三种类型,即纵波、横波和面波。其中纵波在地壳中传播速度为5.5-7千米/秒,它最先从震中向外扩散,使地面上下震动,破坏性较弱;横波在地壳中的传播速度为3.2-4千米/秒,第二个向外扩散,使地面发生前后、左右抖动,破坏性较强。
由此,地震发生的一瞬间,预警系统可以在接收到纵波信号以后及时发出警告,由于电讯号的传播速度接近光速(30万千米/秒),因此利用电讯号在地震中心向外传递信息,就要比地震的纵波和横波都要快得多,这样地震中心周边的一些区域就能够赢得宝贵的避灾时间。
googlereader  disaster  earthquake  system  china 
september 2012 by aries1988
再生一个孩子很难
在失独群体中,他们更为特殊。4年前,“5·12”地震让近8000多个独生子女家庭失去了孩子。虽然国家也采取了一系列补助方式,但对于这些地震失独的家庭来说,想再生一个孩子很难,更难的是无法愈合的精神创伤。
http://www.instapaper.com/read/304904939
children  parents  earthquake  sichuan  china  family  planning 
july 2012 by aries1988
Sea Change
Haunting family photos pulled from the wreckage of Japan's tsunami.
japan  tsunami  earthquake  family  photo 
february 2012 by aries1988

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