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罗新 | 一切史料都是史学 文汇学人

传统的中国史学固然不是不辨真伪地使用文献和材料,但没有在理论上区分史料与史学,对古代史料缺乏批判鉴别的方法自觉,这使得读史者更倾向于盲目崇古信古,越古老越盲从。古代,无论东方还是西方,当然也有许多优秀的学者能处理混乱复杂的史料,并从中获得至今仍有价值的历史解释,但他们的成就主要依赖于经验与才能,他们基本上不具备理论和方法的自觉。更多的学者则是盲从教条。无论中国的传统史学多么发达,但那是在古代条件下的发达,学科本身没有发展出史学与史料学的理论自觉。史料是历史学的关键因素。中国现代学科体系中的历史学,发端于重审史料,由此告别了、解放了并且现代化了中国传统史学。

无论是完整的还是残碎的,哪怕是一句话,哪怕是一个碎片,都可被视为一部史书的残剩部分,都有特定的写作者(authorship),其作者本有清楚的诉说对象(readership),有明确的、特定的写作目的。这样的材料,我们都应该把它当作史学来对待,如分析一部史著那样去分析其作者、读者和写作目的,而不是简单地认定为某种客观史料。

我们现在要讨论的是积极的遗忘,是出于某种目标,主动地、有意识地切断与过去之间联系的遗忘。焚书、文字狱等等,就是要造成一种主动的遗忘、一种强制性的遗忘。对于研究者来说,这样的遗忘是有历史学意义的。

我常常强调“遗忘的竞争”,因为我们能够了解的所谓过去、所谓历史,都是不完整的碎片,这些碎片是往昔岁月中持续进行的各种竞争——记忆与记忆的竞争、遗忘与遗忘的竞争、记忆与遗忘的竞争——的结果。
那些相互矛盾冲突的史料碎片,不再是简单的孰是孰非、孰真孰伪的关系,值得我们辨识的是它们各自体现着怎样的叙述传统,代表着怎样的竞争力量,反映了什么样的竞争过程。我们要考察那些被排斥在集体记忆之外的内容,回顾过去几千年我们能够看到的传统史学。中国史学有官修正史悠久的、独特的传统,这反映了政治权力作为历史叙述竞争力量的绝对优势地位,所有其他的竞争者都因弱势而难以发声。

我们要知道,历史越是单一、纯粹、清晰,越是危险,被隐藏、被改写、被遗忘的就越多。我们要拂去竞争的烟尘理解过去,展示历史本来的多种可能。

学习和研究历史,不是为了预测未来,而是为了扩大人类的视野,理解我们现在所处的情况既不是自然的,也不是不可避免的。我们必须知道,我们的过去有非常丰富的可能,而不是如今天呈现在我们面前、特别是呈现在某些叙述中的那样单一和绝对。
historian  historiography  opinion  future  chinese  history 
8 weeks ago by aries1988
专访宪法学者张千帆:宪政文明的暖流会融化中国体制的坚冰|深度|端传媒 Initium Media
张千帆是中国最负盛名的宪法学者之一,研究领域包括比较宪法与行政法,司法制度,中西方政治、道德与法律思想。

我们必须理解,宪法规定的党的领导是抽象和一般的,不是指治国理政日常实践中各级领导人的具体行为。任何领导人都是会犯错误的凡人,譬如某个县委书记完全可能滥用职权。宪法规定的党的领导显然不是要神化任何领导人,否则就变成了人治,就抵触了宪法第五条规定的法治和依法治国。这些问题早在八十年代就得到清理并达成共识,现在不应该再成为问题。

因此,问题不在于党的领导,而在于如何领导。执政党需要通过宪法和法律去体现其意志,执政党的意志应该通过民主和法治程序体现出来,而不是通过各种讲话或指示。当然,执政党的行为可以通过制定党内规章加以规范,但这些法规、规章都必须符合宪法。事实上,你用宪法规定来坚持党的领导地位,这本身已表明执政党只能在宪法与合宪法律的框架内行使权力。否则,宪法没有意义的话,党的领导也就没有法律根基了。

实际上,世界上每个国家的政府都是不愿意实施宪法的,但民主国家的政府不得不实施宪法,最终是因为有选票,不实施宪法的话会得罪太多的选民,领导人当选了也会下台。但如果没有真正的选举,政府不用对公民负责,不实施宪法也没有什么后果。

如果双方都能了解对方的真实想法,共同点还是很容易找到的,因为央港博弈是一种“协调博弈”,而非零和博弈。中央的主要目标维持主权统一,香港则希望维持高度自治的空间和制度的完整性。在主权统一的基础之上,中央应该还是愿意去谈的。现在,中央可能对于香港有一些误解,好像主张港独的人越来越多;香港则觉得中央似乎越来越强硬,这样下去会对双方之间的情感和认知产生负面影响。

中国现体制可以被视为两次世界大战的国际“冰河期”形成的一块坚冰。现在冰河早已融化,世界主流文明一直处于自由民主的暖流中。记得刚打倒“四人帮”的时候,叶剑英就说过“坚冰已经打破,航道已经开通”。此言不虚,四十年改革开放其实就是暖流和坚冰的“热交换”过程。当然,摩擦还会不断发生,自由民主国家也会遇到移民、民粹、两极分化等问题的困扰,但是应该会有惊无险,社会契约即便破裂也会修复。如果今后若干年我们仍然处在一个温暖的国际大环境下,我相信世界文明暖流最终会化解每一块坚冰。
interview  opinion  constitution  china  hongkong  game  theory  democracy  today  future  leader  intelligentsia  reform  politics 
9 weeks ago by aries1988
日本年号变迁与时代记忆 日经中文网

不可思议的是,明治(1868~1912年)、大正(1912~1926年)、昭和(1926~1989年)都通过年号形成了时代的印象。尽管没有合理的解释,不过可以确定的是,年号会改变人的心情。此次改元或许会成为走向全新日本的契机。

说起明治就想到维新,说起大正就联想到民主和浪漫,说起昭和则想到战争和经济增长。年号让人回顾起当时的时代。而平成似乎总带着抹不掉的负面印象。

被称为日本宪政之神的尾崎行雄曾在战败后这样提倡过。尾崎主张“为了让不论男女老少还是贵贱贤愚的全体国民都认清战败的事实,我认为应该改年号。年号可以带有‘新生日本第一年’的含义。或者是带有‘民主主义元年’、‘兴国元年’或‘投降2年’等含义”(《尾崎咢堂全集第10卷》195页)。
japanese  year  calendar  time  emperor  history  future 
10 weeks ago by aries1988
Opinion | We Aren’t Built to Live in the Moment - The New York Times

Our emotions are less reactions to the present than guides to future behavior. Therapists are exploring new ways to treat depression now that they see it as primarily not because of past traumas and present stresses but because of skewed visions of what lies ahead.

Similarly, studies of children’s development show that they’re not able to imagine future scenes until they’ve gained the ability to recall personal experiences, typically somewhere between the ages of 3 and 5.
psychology  future 
march 2019 by aries1988
futurists and historians
What best distinguishes our species is an ability that scientists are just beginning to appreciate: We contemplate the future. Our singular foresight created…
history  future  mind  animal  human  question  opinion  futurism  historian 
march 2019 by aries1988
We may finally know what causes Alzheimer’s – and how to stop it

Multiple teams have been researching Porphyromonas gingivalis, the main bacterium involved in gum disease, which is a known risk factor for Alzheimer’s. So far, teams have found that P. gingivalis invades and inflames brain regions affected by Alzheimer’s; that gum infections can worsen symptoms in mice genetically engineered to have Alzheimer’s; and that it can cause Alzheimer’s-like brain inflammation, neural damage and amyloid plaques in healthy mice.
teeth  inflammation  brain  alzheimer  research  medicine  pharma  future  health  science  senior  bacteria 
february 2019 by aries1988
Twitter
We know China is ageing rapidly, but this from our emerging cities report shows how pace differs significantly betw…
region  aging  numbers  comparison  city  future  china 
january 2019 by aries1988
郝景芳:2019,给普通人6个建议
因此,等我们的孩子毕了业,面临的就会是这样的就业局面:高收入工作要求超级专业(例如法律、医生),或者超级有创造力(例如研发、设计、娱乐)。若不能做到极度专业,或者极度具有创造力,他们就缺少在未来就业市场的竞争力。

一是经济学基本原理:稀缺性原理。越稀缺、且被人需要的东西,价格越贵。这是经济颠扑不破的出发点。

在当前经济里,最稀缺的就是才能。全世界范围内,能源和大宗商品价格涨涨跌跌,但高技能人才的薪资却一直不变地上涨。很多人不明白为什么石油能跌到40美金,而高管的年薪能达到数百万美金。

我们都知道,一般人都需要满足了基础饱暖和安全感,才会想要追求更高层的精神目标。而我们很少思考的是:一般人在满足低层需求之后,都会自然产生更高的精神目标。
如果从小就吃饱穿暖,那么人生目标就提升到追求成就、名声这些尊重需求了。
如果从小就有了成功地位,那么人生目标就提升为自我实现需求了。
而与此同时,能够帮助人们自我实现的经济,也会有越来越大的市场空间。个性化顾问和咨询会成为越来越主流的需求,因为每个人、每个团队的自我实现都不一样。
教育亦如此。成就个体的教育是下个时代所需。

解决问题思维,和,探究本质思维,就是知识经济最重要的核心素养了。

那对于我们普通人,有什么建议呢?
· 第一条建议,就是内心笃定一点。
· 第二条建议,就是理解人的基本需求。
· 第三条建议,就是持续投资于知识技能提升。
· 第四条建议,就是给孩子探究和发挥创意的教育。
· 第五条建议,就是不要鄙薄孩子任何发展方向。
· 第六条建议,就是重视理解事物的本质。
tianjin  author  scifi  self  success  2019  china  advice  parenting  future  education  workforce 
january 2019 by aries1988
专访洪源远:「改革」与「开放」都面临空前危机,中国正处于历史转折点|改革开放40年|深度|端传媒Initium Media
殖民的经验对一个国家的意识有根深蒂固的影响,即使独立后,仍然会用西方人的眼光看自己。中国没有被西方统治,因此在思想和选择上有更大的自主空间,相对不受外国标准的约束。在这样的历史条件下,一旦改革开放,中国便冒出各种「别出心裁」的发展策略。

如果正确理解「改革开放」的故事,西方就不应该惧怕「中国模式」,应该担忧的是人们误解了这个故事,利用中国的经济起飞把专制行为合理化,又或者是某些中国人自己误解了这个故事。

打压贪腐本身是好事,但是现在的问题是卡在中间。如果说像过去那样,将官僚体制整个企业化,它起码能发挥一些优势,官员们敢于冒风险、担责任。相反的,如果让官僚系统变得循规蹈矩,也有好处。尤其是在一些一线城市中,经济已经发展到了一定程度,这时官僚系统就应该是服务型的,老老实实做事,权力受到制约的。

坦率讲,我认为「一带一路」只是一项愿景,而不是周密的计划,更不是西方想像的阴谋。「一带一路」官方网站上的一份《行动计划(2015-2017)》,只有短短七页纸,具体措施其实非常少,留下了许多空间给下面的人去想如何执行,这种做法在中国是很典型的,尤其符合「运动」的逻辑。

一些过分夸大的语言,它总是会和民族主义绑在一起,这对民主的发展也是没有好处的。真正的民主不单单包括选举、言论自由等等,还包括你思想开放了,能包容不同意见,能听进批评,能自我反省,但如果你整天都说自己「厉害了」,那其他人就没什么可说的了,因为你已经很「厉害了」。
china  opinion  reform  today  future 
january 2019 by aries1988
好文!旅法30多年翻译详述法国目前社会动乱“黄马甲运动”及法国的现状!

欧盟为各国制定的未来发展方向是: 法国和意大利是专门旅游国, 西班牙和葡萄牙种菜和水果, 德国荷兰丹麦养猪牛, 波兰种粮食; 东欧各小国按人口总额交纳的欧共体分摊金少, 但领取的补助因货币比值差距大而实际受益最多。

俄和前南诸国向西欧贩卖军火, 大量投资滨海房产, 黑社会势力强大, 东欧的蛇头、娼妓、少年惯偷群, 波兰的长途运输业+电工和建筑工, 北非转来的毒品, 大量新老移民轻易获得法国(和西欧其他各国) 经过历史长期斗争而获得的社会福利, 诸多头疼问题导致各国极右翼迅速发展。

美中俄的威胁

法国的税项门类和总额, 被"世界经济发展与合作组织"排名为欧洲最高额国家之一(丹麦第一, 德国第二, 法国第三)。 在至少十多种赋税和社会分摊金以及行业分摊金中, 增值税 1° 收益最大, 其次是社会保险税 2°, 然后依次为: 收入所得税 3°, 公司所得税 4°, 土地税 5°, 居住税 6°, 烟草税 7°, 社会奉献普及税 8° (法文缩写CSG), 以及颇有争议的 巨富团结税 9° (法文缩写 ISF)。

该税始创于1791年大革命时期, 1953年以法律形式正式确定。 几十年来, 法国所有城镇的基建和福利费用所需: 道路修缮, 垃圾清理, 街心花园, 体育中心, 图书馆, 幼儿园, 中小学交通和食堂等, 全指靠国家对此税收的反还款。

跟世界各地的都市布局和建筑艺术相比, 看来看去, 总觉得法国别具一格: 建筑群内临近楼房的风格一致,建筑物本身的外貌与内部功能一致, 内部装饰物的质地和颜色格调一致, 当时利用与未来的长远发展一致, 一句话, 各个市镇的规划设计, 体现出法国人对美的欣赏水平, 整体上高于其他国家。这正如法国人的穿衣习惯,当今世界生活普遍以务实为主, 不管出身是何层次, 穿着是否品牌, 法国人都注意上衣下裤鞋袜的式样搭配和颜色协调。 跟生活水平差距并不大的南欧北欧和德国相比, 法国人的这一点比较突出, 从旅游团的穿戴就能断定是否来自法国。

** 美国飞机向法国空投了3000台钢琴, 几万份爵士乐谱, 意在传播美国生活方式。

左翼上台后根据他们对"社会主义"理念的理解, 实施人人平等, 全民自由, 对犯罪分子从轻判决, 相信他们能自身改造思想, 实际是放纵坏人罪人。 他们主张"不要隔绝罪犯, 使他们远离生活现实, 不利出狱后再融入社会"。 这种对一小撮人的自由, 势必造成社会紊乱, 人身安全无保障, 更谈不上全民自由! 法国的传统左派应当对此负主要责任。

1986年6月我来到法国, 那时社会比现在稳定, 在"巴黎高等翻译学校"上课, 有时晚上11点乘公交车返回郊区住处, 毫无安全问题; 物价呢, 过去50法朗(折合现在7欧元)能买很多东西, 可现在100欧元(折合过去700法朗) 却买不到啥。 由此可见法国的物价涨幅, 人民的普遍购买力和生活水平下降多大, 我深有体会, 所以同情支持。

有位法国老知识分子曾对我说, 美国人称呼新闻媒介为"第四权力" (西方是"三权"鼎立), 此次法国的"黄马甲"运动, 我深有感触。
The derivation of the term fourth estate arises from the traditional European concept of the three estates of the realm: the clergy, the nobility, and the commoners. The equivalent term fourth power is somewhat uncommon in English but is used in many European languages (see: es:Cuarto poder and fr:Quatrième pouvoir, for example) referring to the separation of powers in government into a legislature, an executive, and a judiciary.
analysis  france  anecdote  stereotype  media  2018  question  future  crisis  populism  history  français 
december 2018 by aries1988
Why we can’t quit the QWERTY keyboard - MIT Technology Review
Schick envisions Tap—which at $179 costs a lot more than the average keyboard—as a tool for all kinds of people. Those who are visually disabled can use it to interact more easily with a smartphone, he says, and he can imagine it being used for languages like Chinese. A tool called TapMapper lets users come up with their own Tap layouts.
keyboard  history  future 
october 2018 by aries1988
梁文道:中國用不着窗口
为什么中央要这么做?难道他们不怕这个行动会在西方媒体和政界留下一个坏印象,让全世界更加相信「香港已死」的说法?难道他们没有想过在新冷战开打的今天,香港可以再度扮演国家对外窗口的角色吗?答案其实很简单,他们还真的不怕,而且也根本用不着香港再去做什么窗口了。

中国在这场新冷战早就做好了最坏打算,完全可以走上一条和西方对决的道路,同时以此对内激励民心,让他们知道未来几年的苦日子全是西方人搞鬼,从而凝聚向心力和稳定合法性。再大不了,也只是重新闭关锁国,靠着自己内部庞大的市场和政府在民间汲取的资源熬过去。而且别忘了中国早非吴下阿蒙,尽管「一带一路」陆续传来受挫的消息,但它无论如何也太不可能在国际上被彻底孤立到当年只能依靠香港的地步。
hongkong  diplomacy  future 
october 2018 by aries1988
How Islam Created Europe - The Atlantic
“the West” emerged in northern Europe (albeit in a very slow and tortuous manner) mainly after Islam had divided the Mediterranean world.

“The West,” if it does have a meaning beyond geography, manifests a spirit of ever more inclusive liberalism. Just as in the 19th century there was no going back to feudalism, there is no going back now to nationalism, not without courting disaster. As the great Russian intellectual Alexander Herzen observed, “History does not turn back … All reinstatements, all restorations have always been masquerades.”

Europe must now find some other way to dynamically incorporate the world of Islam without diluting its devotion to the rule-of-law-based system that arose in Europe’s north, a system in which individual rights and agency are uppermost in a hierarchy of needs.
europe  today  immigration  future  opinion  islam  mediterranean 
october 2018 by aries1988
Homo sapiens devient-il homo informaticus ?
oisif, oisive

adjectif et nom
(ancien français oidif, avec l'influence de oiseux)

Qui n'exerce aucune activité permanente et dispose de nombreux loisirs, qui vit sans travailler.
human  workforce  future  book  français  opinion  work  self  ai  data 
september 2018 by aries1988
Yuval Noah Harari on Why Technology Favors Tyranny - The Atlantic

- In 2018 the common person feels increasingly irrelevant.
By 2050, a useless class might emerge, the result not only of a shortage of jobs or a lack of relevant education but also of insufficient mental stamina to continue learning new skills.

- whatever liberal democracy’s philosophical appeal, it has gained strength in no small part thanks to a practical advantage: The decentralized approach to decision making that is characteristic of liberalism—in both politics and economics.
In the late 20th century, democracies usually outperformed dictatorships, because they were far better at processing information.
Democracy distributes the power to process information and make decisions among many people and institutions, whereas dictatorship concentrates information and power in one place.
- If you disregard all privacy concerns and concentrate all the information relating to a billion people in one database, you’ll wind up with much better algorithms than if you respect individual privacy and have in your database only partial information on a million people.

- What will happen to this view of life as we rely on AI to make ever more decisions for us?
once we begin to count on AI to decide what to study, where to work, and whom to date or even marry, human life will cease to be a drama of decision making, and our conception of life will need to change. Democratic elections and free markets might cease to make sense. So might most religions and works of art.
If we are not careful, we will end up with downgraded humans misusing upgraded computers to wreak havoc on themselves and on the world.

- For starters, we need to place a much higher priority on understanding how the human mind works—particularly how our own wisdom and compassion can be cultivated.
- More practically, and more immediately, if we want to prevent the concentration of all wealth and power in the hands of a small elite, we must regulate the ownership of data.
advice  future  crisis  ai  society  politics  people  life  work  mentality  human  democracy  dictatorship  competition  liberalism 
september 2018 by aries1988
Is the Algorithmification of the Human Experience a Good Thing?
Skeptics will point out that those algorithms are designed by corporations to serve their interests, not yours. Social media companies, for instance, want to keep you on their services as long as possible, which makes them prone to pushing emotionally charged content that might not be super healthy for you or for society. And even a benevolent algorithm can produce negative or unwanted results.

The video wasn’t directly crafted by a machine. But it wasn’t totally a human creation, either. Rather, it was optimized to appeal to YouTube’s content algorithm, which automatically plays related videos one after the other. “Johny Johny Yes Papa” copies enough elements of popular kid’s videos — a certain length, musical beat, color palette and visual style, along with key words and lyrics — that YouTube’s algorithm will line it up after more popular songs.

At least on a symbolic level, there is something unsettling about a global, faceless content empire that hoovers up human culture and processes it into homogenized nothingness to be fed to kids via tireless social media algorithms that seek, above all else, to maximize time spent on site.
society  engineering  crisis  question  future  children  video  ai  algorithm 
september 2018 by aries1988
专访余英时:没有一个政权能全恃暴力而传之久远|端傳媒 Initium Media
这位名满天下的历史学家,尽管已经从讲坛上退隐,但仍然密切关注著中国的发展。他承认在眼见的未来,现状似乎没有改变的可能;但同时表示,绝不认为“党资本主义”专政已一统天下、无可撼动。

在这一“党资本主义”建立和成长的过程中,当然也有一些平民,由于机缘凑巧而“富起来”的,但他们的人数与规模都远不能与上述类型的人相比,因而也不是足以形成自由市场中的中产阶级。所以,整体观察,在“改革开放”以后致富的人,不是一般自由市场中的资产阶级,而是一个特权群体;他们的特权完全依附于党的当权派,自然不可能产生民主诉求,因为民主是不允许任何特权存在的。大陆观察家对于这一“党资本主义”早有深切认识,称之为“权贵资本主义”。据我所见,晚年赵紫阳在反思中也接受了这一概念。
future  china  intelligentsia 
august 2018 by aries1988
What if the Government Gave Everyone a Paycheck? - The New York Times
A world inhabited only by robots, their billionaire owners and a large and increasingly restive population is the plotline for countless dystopian fantasies, but it’s a reality that appears to be drawing closer. If we continue on the path we’re on, we will need to make fundamental choices about how to support human livelihoods and ensure equal participation in our economy and society. Most basically, we will have to confront the realities of vastly unequal economic and political power. Even if we manage to enact a U.B.I., it will not be nearly enough.
poverty  ai  future  money  wealth  state 
july 2018 by aries1988
The Neuroscience of Pain

For scientists, pain has long presented an intractable problem: it is a physiological process, just like breathing or digestion, and yet it is inherently, stubbornly subjective—only you feel your pain. It is also a notoriously hard experience to convey accurately to others. Virginia Woolf bemoaned the fact that “the merest schoolgirl, when she falls in love, has Shakespeare or Keats to speak her mind for her; but let a sufferer try to describe a pain in his head to a doctor and language at once runs dry.” Elaine Scarry, in the 1985 book “The Body in Pain,” wrote, “Physical pain does not simply resist language but actively destroys it.”For scientists, pain has long presented an intractable problem: it is a physiological process, just like breathing or digestion, and yet it is inherently, stubbornly subjective—only you feel your pain. It is also a notoriously hard experience to convey accurately to others. Virginia Woolf bemoaned the fact that “the merest schoolgirl, when she falls in love, has Shakespeare or Keats to speak her mind for her; but let a sufferer try to describe a pain in his head to a doctor and language at once runs dry.” Elaine Scarry, in the 1985 book “The Body in Pain,” wrote, “Physical pain does not simply resist language but actively destroys it.”

“Things which all men know infallibly by their own perceptive experience, cannot be made plainer by words. Therefore, let Pain be spoken of simply as Pain.”

Meanwhile, as the historian Joanna Bourke has shown, in her book “The Story of Pain,” attempts to translate the McGill Pain Questionnaire into other languages have revealed the extent to which cultural context shapes language, which, in turn, shapes perception.

The self-reported nature of pain scores leads, inevitably, to their accuracy being challenged. “To have great pain is to have certainty,” Elaine Scarry wrote. “To hear that another person has pain is to have doubt.”

Pain was declared “the fifth vital sign” (alongside blood pressure, pulse rate, respiratory rate, and temperature), and the numerical scoring of pain became a standard feature of U.S. medical records, billing codes, and best-practice guides.

“It was just one of those serendipitous conversations that you find yourself in, where this whole area is opened up to you,” she told me. “It was, like, ‘God, this is everything I’ve been looking for. It’s got clinical application, interesting philosophy, and we know absolutely nothing.’ I thought, Right, that’s it, pain is going to be my thing.”

as they figured out the rules of the game, the ominous light began triggering more and more blood flow to a couple of regions—the anterior insula and the prefrontal cortices. These areas, Tracey and Ploghaus concluded, must be responsible for the anticipation of pain.

a somewhat horrifying experiment conducted by Laure Mazzola, a neurologist at the Lyon Neuroscience Research Center, in France.

Chronic pain, Tracey said, is now understood as “something new, with a life of its own, with its own biology and its own mechanisms, most of which we really don’t understand at all.”
mri  research  medical  future  pain 
july 2018 by aries1988
China is trying to turn itself into a country of 19 super-regions - A tale of 19 mega-cities
The concept of city clusters is grounded in the theory of agglomeration benefits, which holds that the bigger the city, the more productive it is. A large, integrated labour market makes it easier for employers to find the right people for the right jobs. As companies gather together, specialised supply chains can take shape. Knowledge also spreads more easily.
city  china  future  project 
june 2018 by aries1988
How I use Day One — and an aside about the differences between Bear and Day One – The Sweet Setup
Bear is great at being a giant scrapbook of useful (and useless!) thoughts and ideas. I throw anything and everything into Bear and use Bear to house all sorts of information and data to search and use at a later time. I keep all my notes tagged with a general topic (like “finance” or “home/renovations”) to keep things organized and easy to find. And I generally jump into Bear four or five times a day to keep my notes organized.

1. If the note is a task or event, it gets sent to Things or Fantastical.
2. If the note is an idea I want to pursue for my personal blog or for The Sweet Setup, I send the idea from Bear to Ulysses.
3. If the note is a personal memory or something I want to speak about to my future self, I send the note to Day One.
4. If the note doesn’t fit into any of the above categories, it’s left in Bear and sits there for future reference.

Day One, in my little world, is my little world — a largely information-free area that has sentimental value and that is ripe with personal conversations. Day One is, and has always been, the app that best embodies me. I don’t think I see a day where Day One is not part of my larger data workflow.
workflow  pkm  iOS  apple  notes  diary  self  future  tool  comparison 
june 2018 by aries1988
雄安新区积分制:开奔驰不如骑共享单车积分高-观察者网

“你开个大奔驰每天上班,不如我骑共享单车积分高;你租个大房子一个人住,不如我一家数口租个小房子积分高;我拾年积分够了可以买房子,你分数不够继续积分,你想买的房子越大你需要积分的年限越高。”该负责人解释称,“你开个车喝水,瓶子一甩出去了,十分没了,马路不宽,公交车优先,你开个私家车到处受限。人家到春天都去义务植树你从来不去,一年又差100分。”
2018  china  future 
june 2018 by aries1988
高薪互联网对决CFD
CFD教授级高工自己写的了CFD代码(具备高水平的计算机编程水平),推得了算法(张量、离散求解、甚至自己提出模型)。这是基本素养,是CFD教授级高工和CFD工程师的区别。
CFD教授级高工,可以从你的云图看出你的网格数量,从流场看出是否调用高阶格式,从几何外形看出哪里需要网格加密。

重申,CFD不同于实验学科,这一行,充满了学术传奇和商业传奇:
开源CFD软件架构师Weller只是本科生,从不写文章,创立CFD软件OpenFOAM
Wilcox逝世之前一直都是讲师,生前提出kOmega模型
Gosman在帝国理工时期,提出各种Gosman模型,后创立CFD软件STAR-CD
Hirt提出VOF模型,单篇被引10000+,创立CFD软件Flow-3D
Peric放弃帝国理工大学教授职位创立公司,即为CD-adapco的前身
Spalding提出CFD模型无数,学术不倒,同时创立CFD软件PHOENICS
他们都是纯粹的CFD教授级高工,是神。或有教职,或创立公司,或商业咨询,或身兼数职。

CFD应届生去公司要高薪,要走【一事一议】。发挥经验优势,越老越值钱。
谈薪水,靠的自己的技能。赚多少钱,取决于你能拿多少东西上台面。但这里,问一下自己,你的CFD技能是否能做到一事一议?算例发散了怎么办?是否会植入新的大气流动模型?如何增加一个地面的造火源项?
拿多少工资,取决于你创造的效益。

在某一天,各大公司将不再看重花花绿绿的云图,而是真正的需要CFD做产品设计的时候。
他们终将填充一批强有力的CFD教授级高级工程师。
那个时候,将需要一个CFD理论功底扎实,行业经验丰富的人,以领导者开创者的身份,负责万亿体量产品的设计变革。
career  cfd  moi  future  today  history  comparison  internet  2018  industry  bat 
april 2018 by aries1988
In China and India, men outnumber women on a massive scale. The consequences are far-reaching. - Washington Post

A combination of cultural preferences, government decree and modern medical technology in the world’s two largest countries has created a gender imbalance on a continental scale. Men outnumber women by 70 million in China and India.

China’s official one-child policy, in effect from 1979 to 2015

Another unintended result — urban housing prices are rising fast.

Around $10,000, Li reckons, will have to be paid to his future bride’s family, just to gain their approval for the engagement. A centuries-old tradition, the bride price in China is similar to a dowry elsewhere in the world, but paid from groom’s family to the bride’s parents — rather than the other way around.
india  china  children  female  crisis  culture  numbers  future 
april 2018 by aries1988
Bright Lights, Big Shoulder Pads: A Timid Japan Recalls Its Bubble Era - The New York Times
She performs in a pop-music duo called Bed In that borrows heavily from the keyboard lines, electric drums and power chords of the ’80s. They dress ’80s, too: The shoulder pads are big, the skirts are mini and the hues are Day-Glo when they aren’t just plain shiny.

That era came to an abrupt end. Japan’s stock market crashed in 1990, and property prices plummeted. The period that followed is often called the Lost Decade, as Japan grappled with falling prices, slow growth and burdensome debt.

“I feel like back then, people weren’t afraid to be noticed,” said one dancer, Nanako Meguro, 18, who recently graduated from Tomioka High School in Osaka, about 250 miles southwest of Tokyo. “They wanted to be No. 1. I think that compared to people nowadays, everyone seemed to have a lot more confidence.”
1980s  japan  japanese  music  today  economy  mentality  future  youth  dance 
april 2018 by aries1988
Understanding China’s Rise Under Xi Jinping -- By The Honourable Kevin Rudd
the territorial expanse of the Chinese Empire virtually doubled, occupying some 10 per cent of the world’s land area, 30 percent of the world’s population, and 32 percent of the world’s economy.
Nonetheless, for those who are professionally charged with interpreting China’s future, as you are in this great military academy, it means that we must also take time to understand China’s past. To understand how China perceives the world around it. And to understand how it now perceives its own national destiny in the turbulent world of the 21st century.

# Xi’s Political Authority

there is the personality of Xi Jinping himself as a source of political authority. For those who have met him and had conversations with him, he has a strong intellect, a deep sense of his country’s and the world’s history, and a deeply defined worldview of where he wants to lead his country. Xi Jinping is no accidental president. It’s as if he has been planning for this all his life.

# Xi Jinping’s View of the Party

The Communist Party would continue, therefore, as an unapologetically Leninist party for the future.

China’s historical greatness, across its dynastic histories, lay in a strong, authoritarian hierarchical Confucian state.

# Seven Core Priorities

China’s emerging worldview, in my own estimation, is best understood as a set of seven concentric circles.

## The Party

## National Unity

From Beijing’s perspective, Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Taiwan represent a core set of security interests. Each within itself represents a confluence of external and internal security factors.

## The Economy and Environmental Sustainability

Indeed, the systematic treatment of the environment as simply an “economic externality” to the Chinese development process led to wholesale environmental destruction. China is now paying the price.

## China’s Neighbouring States - Securing China’s Continental Periphery across Eurasia

Historically, they’ve been the avenue through which China’s national security has been threatened, resulting in successive foreign invasions.
The failure of the Great Wall of China to provide security from foreign invasion is a classic case in point.

## China’s Maritime Periphery - East Asia and the West Pacific

Xi Jinping has made plain he does not see China’s role as simply replicating the current US-led liberal international order for the future.
China has consistently said that this was an order created by the Western, victorious, and by-and-large colonial powers after the Second World War.
australia  origin  history  usa  world  china  future  sinology  politics  diplomacy  analysis  xi  thinking 
march 2018 by aries1988
The Myth of a Kinder, Gentler Xi Jinping - The Atlantic
In 2004, the day before the 15th anniversary of the Tiananmen Massacre, Kristof wrote that Chinese leaders “knew that after the Chinese could watch Eddie Murphy, wear tight pink dresses and struggle over what to order at Starbucks, the revolution was finished. No middle class is content with more choices of coffees than of candidates on a ballot.” Mann called this idea the “Starbucks Fallacy.” Indeed, in December, Starbucks opened its largest store in the world in Shanghai – a 29,000 feet emporium with 400 staff. The company’s CEO said he expects China to be the company’s biggest market. Chinese political polling data is terrible, and it’s impossible to say if China’s middle class is “content” with their choice of coffee over candidates. But for Xi, it’s certainly working.   
thinking  west  china  future  democracy 
march 2018 by aries1988
We Know How You Feel
just as the increasing scarcity of oil has led to more exotic methods of recovery, the scarcity of attention, combined with a growing economy built around its exchange, has prompted R. & D. in the mining of consumer cognition. “What people in the industry are saying is ‘I need to get people’s attention in a shorter period of time,’ so they are trying to focus on capturing the intensity of it,” Teixeira explained. “People who are emotional are much more engaged. And because emotions are ‘memory markers’ they remember more. So the idea now is shifting to: how do we get people who are feeling these emotions?”
emotion  business  research  story  egypt  female  scientist  startup  robot  ai  future 
february 2018 by aries1988
5 bonnes raisons de se tourner vers les métiers de l'industrie - L'Etudiant
"L’industrie arrive en tête des secteurs qui rémunèrent le mieux les cadres", rappelle la dernière enquête de l'APEC consacrée aux évolutions des rémunérations. Le salaire brut médian y est de 52.000 € par an contre 50.000 € dans le commerce, 47.000 € dans la construction et 46.000 € dans les services. Un argument sonnant et trébuchant à ne pas négliger dans vos choix d'insertion professionnelle !
numbers  metier  france  salary  industry  future  français  youth  workforce 
february 2018 by aries1988
Kazuo Ishiguro - Nobel Lecture: My Twentieth Century Evening – and Other Small Breakthroughs
As the only foreign boy in the neighbourhood, a kind of local fame followed me around. Other children knew who I was before I met them. Adults who were total strangers to me sometimes addressed me by name in the street or in the local store.

When I look back to this period, and remember it was less than twenty years from the end of a world war in which the Japanese had been their bitter enemies, I'm amazed by the openness and instinctive generosity with which our family was accepted by this ordinary English community. The affection, respect and curiosity I retain to this day for that generation of Britons who came through the Second World War, and built a remarkable new welfare state in its aftermath, derive significantly from my personal experiences from those years.
japan  immigration  gaijin  story  childhood  children  uk  literature  writer  memory  politics  today  world  human  future  manifesto 
february 2018 by aries1988
中国现在能不能做到类似大东亚共荣圈的「大中华共荣」? - 知乎
我们要与对人民的权利戕害的一切势力作战。我们要不断地重复,在我们的国家,过去有哪些人,他们狂妄的行动,曾经造成过哪些本来没有必要造成的苦难。我们要不断地重复,为上述行为的一切辩护,甚至是拒绝采取立场的冷漠,都是这些罪恶继续的土壤。如果我们不能做些什么作出清算,我们也要对它们的不正当性一遍又一遍地声明,才能消灭它们继续产生的一切基础。
china  asia  thinking  essay  future  history  manifesto 
february 2018 by aries1988
Beyond the Bitcoin Bubble - The New York Times

The real promise of these new technologies, many of their evangelists believe, lies not in displacing our currencies but in replacing much of what we now think of as the internet, while at the same time returning the online world to a more decentralized and egalitarian system. If you believe the evangelists, the blockchain is the future. But it is also a way of getting back to the internet’s roots.

herein lies the cognitive dissonance that confronts anyone trying to make sense of the blockchain: the potential power of this would-be revolution is being actively undercut by the crowd it is attracting, a veritable goon squad of charlatans, false prophets and mercenaries. Not for the first time, technologists pursuing a vision of an open and decentralized network have found themselves surrounded by a wave of opportunists looking to make an overnight fortune. The question is whether, after the bubble has burst, the very real promise of the blockchain can endure.

The first layer — call it InternetOne — was founded on open protocols, which in turn were defined and maintained by academic researchers and international-standards bodies, owned by no one. In fact, that original openness continues to be all around us, in ways we probably don’t appreciate enough. Email is still based on the open protocols POP, SMTP and IMAP; websites are still served up using the open protocol HTTP; bits are still circulated via the original open protocols of the internet, TCP/IP. You don’t need to understand anything about how these software conventions work on a technical level to enjoy their benefits. The key characteristic they all share is that anyone can use them, free of charge. You don’t need to pay a licensing fee to some corporation that owns HTTP if you want to put up a web page; you don’t have to sell a part of your identity to advertisers if you want to send an email using SMTP. Along with Wikipedia, the open protocols of the internet constitute the most impressive example of commons-based production in human history.
internet  future  history  money  bitcoin 
february 2018 by aries1988
How many dimensions are there, and what do they do to reality? – Margaret Wertheim | Aeon Essays

Yet the notion that we inhabit a space with any mathematical structure is a radical innovation of Western culture, necessitating an overthrow of long-held beliefs about the nature of reality. Although the birth of modern science is often discussed as a transition to a mechanistic account of nature, arguably more important – and certainly more enduring – is the transformation it entrained in our conception of space as a geometrical construct.

What is so extraordinary here is that, while philosophers and proto-scientists were cautiously challenging Aristotelian precepts about space, artists cut a radical swathe through this intellectual territory by appealing to the senses. In a very literal fashion, perspectival representation was a form of virtual reality that, like today’s VR games, aimed to give viewers the illusion that they had been transported into geometrically coherent and psychologically convincing other worlds.

In Newton’s world picture, matter moves through space in time under the influence of natural forces, particularly gravity. Space, time, matter and force are distinct categories of reality. With special relativity, Einstein demonstrated that space and time were unified, thus reducing the fundamental physical categories from four to three: spacetime, matter and force. General relativity takes a further step by enfolding the force of gravity into the structure of spacetime itself. Seen from a 4D perspective, gravity is just an artifact of the shape of space.

General relativity says that this warping is what a heavy object, such as the Sun, does to spacetime, and the aberration from Cartesian perfection of the space itself gives rise to the phenomenon we experience as gravity.

Whereas in Newton’s physics, gravity comes out of nowhere, in Einstein’s it arises naturally from the inherent geometry of a four-dimensional manifold; in places where the manifold stretches most, or deviates most from Cartesian regularity, gravity feels stronger. This is sometimes referred to as ‘rubber-sheet physics’. Here, the vast cosmic force holding planets in orbit around stars, and stars in orbit around galaxies, is nothing more than a side-effect of warped space. Gravity is literally geometry in action.

Aristotle was right – there are indeed logical problems with the notion of extended space. For all the extraordinary successes of relativity, we know that its description of space cannot be the final one because at the quantum level it breaks down. For the past half-century, physicists have been trying without success to unite their understanding of space at the cosmological scale with what they observe at the quantum scale, and increasingly it seems that such a synthesis could require radical new physics.

Like Newton’s world picture, Einstein’s makes space the primary grounding of being, the arena in which all things happen. Yet at very tiny scales, where quantum properties dominate, the laws of physics reveal that space, as we are used to thinking about it, might not exist.
physics  dimension  maths  future  science 
january 2018 by aries1988
胡平:如何解读中国之崛起-墙外楼

用托克维尔在《旧制度与大革命》中的话来讲:一个坏政府最危险的时候,不是它政绩最恶劣的时候,而是它试图改革的时候。因为改革本身,使它的弱点显露于天下,改革本身会释放出一些原来被压制的力量,所以反而会促成它的灭亡。这是一个一般性的规律。

在中国,由于采用了权贵私有化,倒是一步到位地解决了这个问题。它没有通过大众私有化,把资产分给大家,再通过市场运作把资产集中到少数人手里,而是直截了当地把资产分给了党委,给了党委书记,所以中国成了这个样子,共产党成了中国的唯一的大股东,党委会成了董事会,书记成了CEO,免除了大众私有化过程中资产零碎化的问题。因此在它的经济发展中,就没有资产零碎化导致的经济衰退,得以保持持续的发展。当然这种转变是特别恶劣的,因为共产党就是靠打倒地主资本家起家的,现在你怎么成了地主资本家了呢?所以这种做法,如果没有六四造成的那种威慑背景,根本不可能发生。但是因为中国有那么一个背景,这个情况就在我们眼前发生了。

避免了大众私有化造成的资产零碎化所带来的问题。它使得大资本一步到位地从所谓的全民的手中集中到了少数权贵的手中,就完成了资本主义的变化。

环球日报写得很清楚,实行民主对于别的国家就是政党轮替的问题,对于中国就是翻天覆地。因为它很清楚,它整个的统治,都是建立在这种压制之上的。现在不谈它政治上的压迫引起人们的反感,单单它的经济上、财富上的这种配置,就是建立在高压之下,完全是不公不义的。

大部分就是建立在对所谓全民资产的这种掠夺之上的。尤其是在六四之后,这种掠夺几乎是公开进行的。因此这些权贵不得不担心,一旦政治开放了,且不说以前当局犯下的政治错误会受到追究,单单是目前这种不合理的财富分配的格局,人们就不可能接受。也就是说,一旦中国人民有了发言权,他们很有可能就会要求对过去的经济问题进行清算,要求获得不义之财的权贵们把不义之财交出来。这一点让权贵们更难以接受。因此他们对政治的自由化、政治开发就抱有比原来更为敌视的态度。
opinion  china  politics  state  party  history  1990s  economy  future 
december 2017 by aries1988
Radical Islam and the alt-Right are not so different | Aeon Essays
But just as today, the rapid, radical changes produced counter-cultural pressures, with social revolutionaries and anarchists propelling a wave of transnational terror that began shortly before the assassination of Russia’s Tsar Alexander II in 1881. This terrorist wave extended through to the assassinations of the prime ministers of France in 1894 and Spain in 1897; the empress of Austria in 1898 and the king of Italy in 1900; and finally, the killing of United States president William McKinley in 1901. It involved bombings of ‘bourgeois’ civilians in cafes and theatres across Europe and North America before abating with the onset of the First World War.
thinking  world  future  radicalism  youth 
november 2017 by aries1988
What Happens If China Makes First Contact?

Science fiction is sometimes described as a literature of the future, but historical allegory is one of its dominant modes. Isaac Asimov based his Foundation series on classical Rome, and Frank Herbert’s Dune borrows plot points from the past of the Bedouin Arabs. Liu is reluctant to make connections between his books and the real world, but he did tell me that his work is influenced by the history of Earth’s civilizations, “especially the encounters between more technologically advanced civilizations and the original settlers of a place.” One such encounter occurred during the 19th century, when the “Middle Kingdom” of China, around which all of Asia had once revolved, looked out to sea and saw the ships of Europe’s seafaring empires, whose ensuing invasion triggered a loss in status for China comparable to the fall of Rome.

Every so often, a Hans Zimmer bass note would sound, and the glass pane would fill up with the smooth, spaceship-white side of another train, whooshing by in the opposite direction at almost 200 miles an hour.

seti does share some traits with religion. It is motivated by deep human desires for connection and transcendence. It concerns itself with questions about human origins, about the raw creative power of nature, and about our future in this universe—and it does all this at a time when traditional religions have become unpersuasive to many.

China could rightly regard itself as the lone survivor of the great Bronze Age civilizations, a class that included the Babylonians, the Mycenaeans, and even the ancient Egyptians. Western poets came to regard the latter’s ruins as Ozymandian proof that nothing lasted. But China had lasted. Its emperors presided over the planet’s largest complex social organization. They commanded tribute payments from China’s neighbors, whose rulers sent envoys to Beijing to perform a baroque face-to-the-ground bowing ceremony for the emperors’ pleasure.
astronomy  seti  china  alien  chinese  project  state  scientist  scifi  technology  development  2017  future  human  discovery  history  Space  interview 
november 2017 by aries1988
The Interpreter
Such transitions, in authoritarian countries, tend to make rulers feel more insecure, which can make them paranoid and overreactive. They also tend to have a lot to prove, to their citizens and to powerful elites like the military leadership. All of this makes them prone to conflict and escalation abroad.
middle-east  future 
november 2017 by aries1988
The Islamic World Doesn't Need a Reformation - The Atlantic

There is simply is no “Muslim Pope,” or a central organization like the Catholic hierarchy, whose suffocating authority needs to be broken. Quite the contrary, the Muslim world—at least the Sunni Muslim world, which constitutes its overwhelming majority—has no central authority at all, especially since the abolition of the Caliphate in 1924 by Republican Turkey. The ensuing chaos in itself seems be a part of “the problem.”

The contemporary Muslim world needs not a Martin Luther but a John Locke, whose arguments for freedom of conscience and religious toleration planted the seeds of liberalism. In particular, the more religion-friendly British Enlightenment, rather than the French one, can serve as a constructive model.

Islam, as a legalist religion, has more commonalities with Judaism than with Christianity.

in a reality where the state is already deeply involved in religion, its steps toward moderation and liberalization should be welcome. It’s also worth remembering that the success of the Enlightenment in Europe was partly thanks to the era of “Enlightened despots,” the monarchs who preserved their power even as they realized crucial legal, social, and educational reforms.
from:rss  religion  islam  opinion  enlightenment  future  comparison  christianity  history  politics 
november 2017 by aries1988
Why are we so hard on the cheats between the sheets?
For a sense of the neuralgic hold that cheating still has over us, see the Pew Research Center’s survey of moral attitudes from 2014. The US numbers obey the global pattern. Only 7 per cent of Americans find contraception morally unacceptable. The figure is 22 per cent for divorce, 30 for premarital sex and 84 per cent for infidelity. Of 40 surveyed countries, as varied as Canada and Egypt, only in France did less than half of respondents say infidelity was unacceptable. Most countries scored in the 70s and 80s. Nothing else — gambling, abortion, alcohol — aroused this near-unanimity of opprobrium. It bonds east and west, octogenarian and millennial.
marriage  numbers  mentality  love  fidelity  cheat  future  taboo 
october 2017 by aries1988
La « nouvelle ère » Xi, un défi pour le modèle occidental
Enfin, seul maître à bord, Xi promet à son 1,4 milliard de compatriotes un « développement en deux étapes » : d’ici à 2035, la Chine aura achevé sa modernisation, notamment en termes d’innovation et, en 2049, année du centenaire de la fondation de la République populaire, elle aura atteint le statut de leader planétaire, défendue par une armée « de premier rang mondial ».

Il lui manque toujours la reconnaissance d’un prix Nobel, les scandales de fraude sont encore trop nombreux et l’argent ne peut pas tout. Mais la taille compte. Avec 730 millions de personnes connectées, un usage du téléphone mobile plus avancé que celui des pays occidentaux et infiniment moins de barrières éthiques, la Chine aborde la bataille de l’intelligence artificielle avec de gros atouts.

Si « l’ère » est nouvelle, cependant, le modèle de la concentration des pouvoirs dans les mains d’un seul homme et de son parti, lui, est familier. Cela s’appelle une dictature. Son succès serait, pour le coup, une authentique innovation.
chronique  china  2017  future  politics  innovation  technology  comparison  ai 
october 2017 by aries1988
LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman: ‘Board games inspired my business strategy’

Settlers of Catan is part of a group of so-called “German-style board games” which reward strategy rather than luck and are less centred on themes of conflict than many US board games. Devised in 1995 by designer Klaus Teuber, it has also been reimagined as a very popular app. Set on a fictional island in Viking times, the aim is to collect and trade commodity cards (such as wool, grain and brick), before exchanging them for plastic roads and settlements to occupy the board. Points are awarded for things like having the longest road, and the first player to reach 10 points wins.

He says he prefers games to that other great standby of American males, hanging out watching sports. “People are bad about social stuff. They get uncomfortable in silence. One of the benefits of a board game is it replaces the silence, it keeps the momentum of the conversation going.”

Discussing books he has read recently, he enthuses about Nonzero by Robert Wright — “one of my favourite intellectual authors. Basically, his theory is you have cultural evolution because you have a preference for non-zero sum games.” As society evolves, there are more and more interactions where both sides come out a winner.
game  comparison  technology  siliconvalley  american  entrepreneurial  politics  human  ai  thinking  future 
october 2017 by aries1988
What Happens When We Give up Control of Our Cars? | Feature | Car and Driver
Drivers’ licenses origi­nated as a means of reining in the early chauffeurs. Garages installed security systems. Meanwhile, cars themselves grew steadily more reliable, making the chauffeur less and less necessary. And as the automobile matured, owners ultimately realized that what they wanted from the new technology was not convenience at all. They wanted control. They discovered that the act of driving was the kind of pleasure best kept for themselves.

Words like “autonomous” and “self-driving” mislead because they promise a kind of self-sufficiency on the part of the machine. The autonomous entity is the thing that is supposed to take care of itself. But the coming class of cars does not take care of itself at all. These cars are dependent and, as such, require a larger conversation about what the rules and expectations of that dependency should look like. Once a car belongs to a network, you have to worry about whether the network is safe. Once an algorithm is in command, you have to worry about how the algorithm thinks. We are surrendering control as surely as the first car owners of a century ago did, and when you surrender control, you could end up with a chauffeur problem.

It was Apple, Google, and Intel, companies for which the automobile is not primarily an aesthetic object and driving is not an instrument of pleasure.
driving  car  future  opinion  gadget  automation  debate  history 
october 2017 by aries1988
The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions - MIT Technology Review

We see a similar pattern with other technologies over the last 30 years. A big promise up front, disappointment, and then slowly growing confidence in results that exceed the original expectations. This is true of computation, genome sequencing, solar power, wind power, and even home delivery of groceries.

modern-day AGI research is not doing well at all on either being general or supporting an independent entity with an ongoing existence. It mostly seems stuck on the same issues in reasoning and common sense that AI has had problems with for at least 50 years. All the evidence that I see says we have no real idea yet how to build one. Its properties are completely unknown, so rhetorically it quickly becomes magical, powerful without limit.

Today’s machine learning is not at all the sponge-like learning that humans engage in, making rapid progress in a new domain without having to be surgically altered or purpose-built.

What Gordon Moore actually said was that the number of components that could fit on a microchip would double every year. That held true for 50 years, although the time constant for doubling gradually lengthened from one year to over two years, and the pattern is coming to an end.

The U.S. Air Force still flies the B-52H variant of the B-52 bomber. This version was introduced in 1961, making it 56 years old. The last one was built in 1962, a mere 55 years ago. Currently these planes are expected to keep flying until at least 2040, and perhaps longer—there is talk of extending their life to 100 years.
robot  ai  future  technology  opinion 
october 2017 by aries1988
Analysis | We have a pretty good idea of when humans will go extinct

That radical notion — that we are not, in fact, at the center of the universe — gives rise to what modern scientists call the Copernican Principle: We are not privileged observers of the world around us. We don't occupy a unique place in the universe. We are profoundly ordinary. We are not special.

Assuming that you and I are not so special as to be born at either the dawn of a very long-lasting human civilization or the twilight years of a short-lived one, we can apply Gott's 95 percent confidence formula to arrive at an estimate of when the human race will go extinct: between 5,100 and 7.8 million years from now.
probability  fun  example  human  disaster  berlin  future  prediction  earth  question 
october 2017 by aries1988
The four global forces breaking all the trends

In 2010, we estimated that the GDP of Tianjin was around $130 billion, making it around the same size as Stockholm, the capital of Sweden. By 2025, we estimate that the GDP of Tianjin will be around $625 billion—approximately that of all of Sweden.
future  world 
october 2017 by aries1988
The Interpreter Thursday, October 5, 2017
And conversely, how much attention should we pay to the fact that today’s nascent democracies are held to a much higher moral standard than more established ones were in their earliest days? The early United States, for instance, relied on slave labor and waged brutal ethnic cleansing campaigns against Native Americans. European nations used slavery, torture and political oppression to maintain control over their colonies.

We now recognize, rightly, that those atrocities were abhorrent and shameful. But it is easier to do that from today’s comfortable vantage point of wealth and stability. We rarely reckon with how much of what we have today was derived from the oppression of others. So should we take a cold, hard look at the difficulties of establishing democracy, freedom and equality all at the same time?
question  debate  democracy  nation  state  2017  history  future  government 
october 2017 by aries1988
One kind of education does not fit all
Such techniques may not seem controversial elsewhere, but in France they challenge central educational tenets. For many years, education has been subject to what might be called “the tyranny of normal”. Ever since Jules Ferry introduced compulsory, free, secular primary education in the 1880s, uniform schooling countrywide has been part of the French way of doing things. The 19th-century instituteur, or schoolteacher, was a missionary figure, a guarantor of republican equality and norms. Teachers were trained in écoles normales. To this day, the mighty education ministry sets standardised curriculums and timetables. All 11-year-olds spend exactly four-and-a-half hours on maths a week. Experimentation is frequently regarded as suspect. “Classes are not laboratories,” noted a report by the conservative education inspectorate a few years ago, “and pupils are not guinea pigs.”

French education has long been run along almost military lines. An army of 880,000 teachers is deployed to schools across the country. Head teachers have no say in staffing. In the course of their careers, teachers acquire points that enable them to request reassignment. Newly qualified ones without such points are sent to the toughest schools, and turnover in such places is depressingly high.

Each year 50,000-60,000 people apply and just 900 are admitted. Léonard Aymard, originally from Annecy, was a tour guide when he applied. Loic Shety, from Dijon, won a place even though he lacked the school-leaving baccalauréat certificate. “It’s not for everyone,” says Mathilde Allard from Montpellier, “but we work together so we don’t get lost.”

When a university cannot take any more, those at schools nearby are supposed to be given priority, but such is the demand that places are increasingly being allocated through random selection by computer, known as tirage au sort, which this year affected 169 degree subjects across France. Ability is immaterial.

The lessons of his school, as well as of Descartes and Oran-Constantine, point a way for France to overcome the tyranny of normal in order to make more of what it does well and minimise what it does not.
français  school  explained  reportage  debate  future  learn  university  system 
october 2017 by aries1988
Yuval Noah Harari : « La technologie nous laisse le choix, à condition d’être imaginatifs »
je propose une vision globale des phénomènes. Les gens sont submergés par les informations nouvelles. Ils n’en veulent donc pas davantage, mais souhaitent que quelqu’un les structure. Je suis un peu comme Google et son moteur de recherche qui organisent la Toile !

Les dictatures à venir, nourries par une masse de données, n’oppresseront plus ces groupes mais les individus eux-mêmes, dont on saura tout. Il sera plus difficile de résister à des discriminations pour l’accès au logement, au crédit, à l’emploi, car on sera seul et non plus membre d’un groupe maltraité. En plus, l’algorithme aura sans doute raison ! On est piégé. Bref, nous devrons affronter des crises bien avant l’avènement d’une superintelligence qui remplacerait les hommes.

Quelle que soit la réponse, ce n’est pas très important : ce qui compte, c’est que des gens y croient. Ce ne serait pas la première fois que des idées fausses mènent le monde. Au XXe siècle, le darwinisme social a eu des effets politiques et sociaux très importants, alors que des scientifiques savaient que cette pensée était fondée sur une conception erronée du darwinisme en biologie. De même, toutes les religions proposent une vue déformée de la réalité, mais elles convainquent les gens et ont changé le monde.
book  buy  interview  ai  future  human 
september 2017 by aries1988
Superintelligence: a space odyssey

No one knows what the next blockbuster substrate will be but Tegmark is confident that the doubling of computing power every couple of years will continue indefinitely. The fundamental limit imposed by the laws of physics is a billion trillion trillion times more powerful than today’s best computers.

The message at the heart of Life 3.0 and Tegmark’s beneficial AI movement is that, since super-AI is almost inevitable, we should make every effort now to ensure that it emerges in a way that will be as friendly as possible to human beings — primed to deliver the cosmic inheritance we want. If we wait too long, we may be too late.

At present no one has a clear idea how to achieve this. On the moral and political level we need to discuss what goals and qualities to incorporate. On the technical and scientific level, researchers must figure out how to build our chosen human values into AI in a way that will preserve them after we have lost direct control of its development. Tegmark advances various options and scenarios in which superintelligence plays roles ranging from gatekeeper to protector god, zookeeper to enslaved god.
ai  book  opinion  future  human 
august 2017 by aries1988
Possessed: the dangers of the digital home
the dream of all these manufacturers is that they will be able to harvest your most intimate data. The user survey and the focus group will be replaced by real-time information. Unknowingly, we will be conducting market research for the manufacturers and online retailers as we carry out our domestic chores, eat, chat and just move around in our homes.

If the temperature in a room rises, they will know there are more people in it and, if it rises a little more, that they are getting up to some strenuous, possibly intimate, activity. They will know probably more than us about how we use space.
home  future 
august 2017 by aries1988
Far-distant days: the past has a dizzying power to ground us | Aeon Ideas
Ennigaldi-Nanna herself was far from the first to take an interest in her region’s primordial history. Across thousands of years, priests and kings had performed excavations in ruins already vastly ancient when Babylon itself was young. A full 16 centuries before Ennigaldi-Nanna, in the 2100s BCE, priests from Ur visited Sumerian sites such as Eridu – whose earliest temple ruins date back at least to the 5300s BCE, lending Eridu its reputation as the first planned city ever created. There among the rubble of their ancestors’ libraries, those scribes exhumed primeval cuneiform inscriptions, and took home clay impressions of the texts to store in their temple archives; where, centuries later, they would be rediscovered by the scribes of new dynasties.

ut not all great powers live among such warning signs. Today’s richest and most powerful nation is less than 12 generations old, built on a continent where ancient cities are notably hard to come by. And I can tell you, as a lifelong citizen of that nation, that many of its people do not fully grasp the concept of a distant past or future. Few of us ever have reason to count primeval centuries, since our cities contain no streets or buildings of such age. As the American novelist Howard Fast told The New York Times in 2000: ‘Americans have no sense of history. And not much memory.’
history  future  time  civ 
august 2017 by aries1988
The Chinese are not coming to take over the Russian Far East
Despite signs of growing camaraderie between Beijing and Moscow – including drills in the Baltic and South China seas, and sales of advanced Russian-made…
rumor  chinese  siberia  population  immigration  future  russia 
august 2017 by aries1988
What we get wrong about technology
Instead, when we try to imagine the future, the past offers two lessons. First, the most influential new technologies are often humble and cheap. Mere affordability often counts for more than the beguiling complexity of an organic robot such as Rachael. Second, new inventions do not appear in isolation, as Rachael and her fellow androids did. Instead, as we struggle to use them to their best advantage, they profoundly reshape the societies around us.

Paper had been invented 1,500 years earlier in China and long used in the Arabic world, where literacy was common. Yet it had taken centuries to spread to Christian Europe, because illiterate Europe no more needed a cheap writing surface than it needed a cheap metal to make crowns and sceptres.

Paper caught on only when a commercial class started to need an everyday writing surface for contracts and accounts. “If 11th-century Europe had little use for paper,” writes Mark Kurlansky in his book Paper, “13th-century Europe was hungry for it.”

The American west was reshaped by the invention of barbed wire, which was marketed by the great salesman John Warne Gates with the slogan: “Lighter than air, stronger than whiskey, cheaper than dust.”

the simple invention prevented free-roaming bison and cowboys’ herds of cattle from trampling crops.

this plunge has been driven less by any great technological breakthrough than by the humble methods familiar to anyone who shops at Ikea: simple modular products that have been manufactured at scale and that snap together quickly on site.
invention  technology  productivity  industry  history  future  creativity 
july 2017 by aries1988
Wedding Registries Through the Ages
Joe Veix humorously imagines wedding-registry requests from different couples celebrating their marriages in the past, the present, and the future.
future  fun  wedding 
july 2017 by aries1988
How Might Ethnonationalism Replace Religion?
If you are like me, you were transfixed by Shadi Hamid‘s NPR interview this morning. He touched broadly on two issues: the compatibility of Islam and democracy, and the consequences of the declining religious support in the West for the rise of ethnonationalism.
ethnonationalism, white pride, and other forms of identity politics fill the void in meaning where religion once was.

First, religion might provide individual psychological benefits, creating what we might term meaning-in-belief.
religion creates social structures that provide collective social benefits to those who participate.

There is a stronger argument here, but that contemporary expressions of ethnonationalism in the U.S. remain too disjointed and episodic to be convincingly doing this work.
The distinctive thing about Nazi Germany was not the presence or celebration of anti-Semites, it was the organization of anti-Semites into a team.
comparison  nazi  germany  opinion  usa  today  politics  racism  ethnic  religion  conflict  future  society 
june 2017 by aries1988
The End of Globalisation, the Return of History - Public lectures and events

Globalisation, long considered the best route to economic prosperity and the apparent norm for decades, may not be as inevitable as we think. It now threatens to go abruptly into reverse. What went wrong? And what is the likely impact upon our future prosperity?
china  globalization  future  history  economy  today  opinion  talk  video  podcast 
june 2017 by aries1988
Email Is Still the Best Thing on the Internet

Email is actually a tremendous, decentralized, open platform on which new, innovative things can and have been built. In that way, email represents a different model from the closed ecosystems we see proliferating across our computers and devices.

Email is a refugee from the open, interoperable, less-controlled "web we lost." It's an exciting landscape of freedom amidst the walled gardens of social networking and messaging services.
email  future  internet 
june 2017 by aries1988
India’s long road to prosperity
if incomes per head could grow at 7 per cent a year, India would achieve high-income status, at the level of Portugal, within a quarter of a century. Only three economies have achieved something close to this in the past: Taiwan, South Korea and China.
india  future  economy  book  comparison  asia  china 
june 2017 by aries1988
How to make cities more child-friendly
Raising children in the city is stressful. However, most parents now do it. For the first time ever, a majority of humans (including children) live in urban areas. Even dense metropoles such as New York and London are filling with kids. These cities were designed by men who didn’t do childcare, and it shows.

Throw into this mix another lethal piece of tech: the iPad, the robot babysitter. Instead of spending your afternoon chivvying your kids, you can now just let them zone out to the video game Clash Royale. This is especially attractive when air pollution (largely car-induced) makes it, at times, officially unsafe for them to go outside. That’s a common event in London, and standard in the children’s dystopia (and therefore failed city) Beijing.

Cities also need to use their spaces more. Civic buildings could house play centres on evenings and weekends. When offices and supermarkets are closed, their car parks should be used for football or skateboarding. School playgrounds should stay open at weekends, and floodlit parks after dark. Already, schemes such as London Play allow residents to request that their streets be briefly pedestrianised, typically on Sundays, letting locals go outside and meet each other. “We invite the elderly neighbours, and make sure there is tea and cake out,” says Sam Williams, a landscape architect at Arup who studies child-friendly cities.
parents  children  play  city  opinion  future  kid 
may 2017 by aries1988
L’Allemagne se trompe : « Il ne s’agit pas pour elle d’aider la France, mais de sauver l’Europe »
Sans nier les défis économiques, politiques et sociétaux auxquels le pays fait face depuis une dizaine d’années – ni les insuffisances des réponses apportées sous les deux précédents quinquennats –, la France va mieux et elle est désormais sur une bonne pente.

Du coup, l’idée que « l’aide » de l’Allemagne serait nécessaire au succès du nouveau président est non seulement un brin condescendante mais sans doute très éloignée de la disposition d’esprit qui est la sienne. Non seulement ce dernier est-il probablement persuadé de sa capacité à redresser le pays par ses propres moyens et confiant dans la vertu « transformatrice » de sa propre élection, mais on peut supposer que son analyse le conduit à estimer que la France, pour peu que les réformes nécessaires soient menées à bien, peut réussir durablement dans une zone euro dont les critères de stabilité seraient inchangés.

Une analyse que confirment les évolutions de longue durée : si « décrochage » franco-allemand il y a eu depuis 2009, ce n’est pas vraiment le cas à l’aune des vingt-cinq ou trente dernières années, le ratio économique entre les deux pays (mesuré en termes de PIB comparés) étant resté grosso modo équivalent depuis la réunification allemande.
france  deutschland  economy  europe  today  future  opinion  euro  germany 
may 2017 by aries1988
Yuval Noah Harari challenges the future according to Facebook
If Facebook really attempts to formulate a set of universal values, it will enjoy one big advantage over many previous institutions that attempted to do so. Unlike the early Christian church, or Lenin’s Communist party, Facebook is a truly global network with close to 2bn users. Yet Facebook also suffers from one big disadvantage. Unlike the Christian church and the Communist party, it is an online network.

Physical communities have a depth that virtual communities cannot hope to match, at least not in the near future.

People estranged from their bodies, senses and physical environment are likely to feel alienated and disoriented.

People feel bound by elections only when they share a basic bond with most other voters. The ancient tribes along the Yellow River lacked a common set of values, and consequently they were unable to unite through a peaceful democratic process. It took a lot of violence to hammer them together into a single empire.

If something exciting happens, the gut instinct of Facebook true-believers is to draw their smartphones, take a picture, post it online, and wait for the “likes”. In the process they hardly pay attention to what they actually feel. Indeed, what they feel is increasingly determined by the online reactions rather than by the actual experience.

(A blueprint of such an alternative model has actually been suggested recently by Tristan Harris, an ex-Googler and tech-philosopher who came up with a new metric of “time well spent”.)
2017  future  thinking  opinion  Facebook  community  human  social-network  online  body  comparison 
march 2017 by aries1988
北京为何要严控城市规模? - 万金油的回答 - 知乎

如果有人觉得大城市生活不好,跑到一块儿空地上,向土地主人买了这块地盖起来房子,这样的人达到一定数目就可以向州政府申请成立一个新的城市。市政委员会由居民选举产生,为居民提供包括治安、交通、医疗、教育、水电气等各种市政服务。城市运转的资金由居民交的房产税来提供。如果城市运作得好,那么就会有大量的居民迁入,抬高当地的房价,产生更多的房产税,有了更多的财政收入,市政府就可以投入更多钱来改善交通、建立医院学校等等,使得城市变得更好,吸引更多的人迁入,最终实现良性循环。因此市政府千方百计做好服务吸引更多的人口流入而不会简单地设置人口规模。这样的制度设计才会带来题主所希望的样子。

回到北京的问题,北京政府不需要向住在北京的人负责,而是要向上级政府负责。北京占有了全国太多的资源,而这些资源并不是由市场配置,不能受价格影响流入流出,因此必然吸引外来人口流入。外来人口多了又不能给政府提供相应的财源必然让政府不堪重负。影响到了身在北京市内高于北京的中央政府的运行。因此北京政府必须减少外来人口无序流入,来保障已有的存量人口特别是其中的中央人口正常生活。
beijing  today  future  city  china  policy 
march 2017 by aries1988
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