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aries1988 : geopolitics   18

東亞在世界史中的角色 – Zhongjing Liu | 劉仲敬 – Medium
從現在的這個中國核心去看待世界
把近代以前的中國看成一個自給自足的完整的實體,在十九世紀中葉以前一直是獨立和連續的,然後在十九世紀中葉以後受到歐洲外來者的侵略或者打擊

歐洲國際體系,它本質上講是一個自發演化的多國體系,
歐洲最初產生的威斯特伐利亞體系散播到整個世界,包括亞洲。在這個過程中,亞洲原有的政治結構需要重組,這就是我們所說的「中國」產生的原因。
以前所謂的「中國」,就是中央的城池,就是首都,或者是中原,就是指的中部的、首都周圍的土地,它是一個模糊的地理名詞,並不是現在所謂的民族國家的那個「國」。
大清漸漸解體,直到現在,王朝解體了,歐洲意義上的國家卻沒有真正建立起來。這就是近年來中國為什麼會發生對外緊張關係的根本原因。
民族國家所需要的那些基本要件,例如明確和穩定的邊界,例如排他性的主權
如果中國要建立民族國家的話,那麼很多缺乏認同感的原先的前藩屬地帶,就可以像是對待韓國一樣,讓它自己去獨立,今後建立平等的民族國家的新型關係。

如果美國不採取所謂的再平衡政策,那麼中國方面投入更多力量的結果,就有可能導致周邊的某些小國,特別是東南亞某些小國,背離原來的原有體系,倒向中國,然後形成一個以中國為中心的類似朝貢貿易的體系。而美國為了維持原有體系的平衡,就是說,你加碼我也得加碼,這樣原有體系才能夠維持平衡。
nation  state  china  geopolitics 
october 2018 by aries1988
Southeast Asia enters the danger zone
what is good about Southeast Asia — including kindness to strangers, humour, inclusiveness and flexibility — but rather that he sees these very qualities being eclipsed by a mixture of old-fashioned tyranny and baneful new influences from abroad.

inequality — and the selfishness of the business-political elites that have benefited disproportionately from economic growth both before and after Asia’s financial crisis.

America, in Brexit Britain and in oligarchical Hong Kong, so the 40 per cent of Indonesians clustered around a poverty

the 40 per cent of Indonesians clustered around a poverty earnings line of $2 a day are easy prey for demagogues. It is true that prosperity has also swollen the ranks of Asia’s middle class, but this aspiring and increasingly educated bourgeoisie is governed by the same set of authoritarian leaders and their coterie of tycoons. “This is not a sustainable paradox,” the author writes. It sounds like a recipe for revolution.

As for religion, the increasing influence of extremist Sunni interpretations of Islam over the past 30 years is startlingly visible in the dress codes and religiosity of the Muslims who make up 40 per cent of the region’s population
asia  banyan  geopolitics  today  book  opinion  economy  politics  religion  numbers  crisis  inequality 
july 2017 by aries1988
Why the White House Is Reading Greek History
Getty The Trump team is obsessing over Thucydides, the ancient historian who wrote a seminal tract on war. The Trump White House isn’t known as a hot spot for…
politics  greek  legend  today  geopolitics  usa  china 
july 2017 by aries1988
刘仲敬:东亚在世界史中的角色-墙外楼
而“中国”这个概念之所以产生,就是欧洲国际体系进入东亚的产物。大清为了跟欧洲国家打交道,签订条约,它必须对自己有一个称呼。就是由于大清和欧洲列强之间不断进行交涉的结果,不断签署条约的结果,才产生了后来我们现在看到的“中国”概念

欧洲最初产生的威斯特伐利亚体系散播到整个世界,包括亚洲。在这个过程中,亚洲原有的政治结构需要重组,这就是我们所说的“中国”产生的原因。因为以前,在欧洲人来到东方以前,我们其实没有“中国”这个东西。以前所谓的“中国”,就是中央的城池,就是首都,或者是中原,就是指的中部的、首都周围的土地,它是一个模糊的地理名词,并不是现在所谓的民族国家的那个“国”。

中国的前身毕竟是大清,而大清是王朝结构,它没有民族国家和民族国家之间那种明确的边界。大清和琉球、韩国之类的关系是宗藩性质的关系,它们不必要像民族国家和民族国家那样划定明确的边界。因此大清在跟西方打交道的时候,就有一个很明显的现象就是,西方国家和西方国家之间有明确的边界,而大清和它的周边没有明确边界,必须不断的重划边界。

孔子时代的诸侯结构和秦始皇时代的帝国结构,并不是现在这个中国的产生者。现在这个中国是西方国际体系输入以后,强迫大清留下来的那些各族群、各种各样的居民,按照西方民族国家观念重新组合的产物。我们要注意,这个重新组合是按照西方的原理重新组合的,而不是按照孔子的原理或者秦始皇的原理重新组合的。这就是两者不能直接划等号的原因。

,西方现在的民族国家结构是帝国解体的产物。

欧洲现代的主要问题是德国和两次世界大战,但是德国为什么是世界大战的策源地呢?就是因为德国是神圣罗马帝国的直接继承人,而神圣罗马帝国瓦解以后,德国找不到自己的位置。法国和英国可以直截了当地说它自己是民族国家,因为它们没有帝国的负担;而德国却搞不清楚,它到底是应该像神圣罗马帝国继承人一样,理直气壮的申索它对全欧洲的最高统治权呢,还是应该把自己降一格,变成跟英国和法国一模一样的民族国家?如果走前一条道路的话,必然会引起德国和全欧洲的战争;如果走后一条路的话,德国又是损失最大的,因为英法这些国家本来就不是帝国,而德国是帝国,德国放弃帝国,不仅是放弃了皇帝的虚荣,而且要把荷兰、瑞士、洛林这些边缘地区的土地都放弃出去,理论上和实际上都损失惨重。

如果中国要建立民族国家的话,那么很多缺乏认同感的原先的前藩属地带,就可以像是对待韩国一样,让它自己去独立,今后建立平等的民族国家的新型关系。但是如果真的是这样的话,那么现在的台湾问题就不存在了。台湾问题存在,就是因为现在的中国仍然不肯放弃的缘故。但是不肯放弃,又没有充分的实力来坚持,那结果就是一场灾难。
history  china  geopolitics  europe  comparison  today  future  conflict  world  order  opinion  germany  asia 
august 2016 by aries1988
War and peace in Asia — FT.com
he was also keen to reassure his audience that China’s rise would not lead to conflict with the outside world — “We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap — destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers,” he insisted.

Xi’s reference to “Thucydides’ trap” showed that he (or his staff) had been following the American debate about the rise of China. Graham Allison, a Harvard professor, had coined the phrase with reference to the ancient Greek historian’s observation that the war between Athens and Sparta in the fifth century BC was caused by Sparta's fears of a rising Athens. He has calculated that in 12 of 16 cases since 1500, the rivalry between a great power and a rising power had ended in war.

In the Middle East, a state-system largely constructed by Britain and France in the early 20th century — and which was then maintained by American power after 1945 — is now crumbling, amid violence and political anarchy.

The red thread connecting these seemingly regional crises is the west’s growing inability to function as a pole of stability and power, imposing order on a chaotic world.

The fundamental reason for the shift in economic power to Asia is simple: weight of numbers. By 2025 some two-thirds of the world’s population will live in Asia. By contrast the US will account for about 5 per cent of the world’s population and the European Union about 7 per cent.

Hans Rosling of Sweden’s Karolinska Institute puts it nicely when he describes the world’s pin code as “1114” — meaning that of the planet’s 7bn people, roughly 1bn live in Europe, 1bn live in the Americas, 1bn in Africa and 4bn in Asia. By 2050, the world’s population is likely to be 9bn, and the pin code will change to 1125, with both Africa and Asia adding a billion people.

stalwarts of the US foreign policy establishment, such as Madeleine Albright and Tom Donilon, make it clear that the maintenance of open global markets and the US alliance system remain the twin pillars of American foreign policy — as since 1945.
today  geopolitics  world  china  usa  europe  opinion  conflict  future  asia  economy  military 
august 2016 by aries1988
Persian (or Arabian) Gulf Is Caught in the Middle of Regional Rivalries
This may be among the most minor of the disputes, but it speaks to the level of hostility and competition between the two, and is taken quite seriously by many with an interest in the region — including the United States Navy, which, for fear of alienating its regional allies, uses the term Arabian Gulf.

Persian Gulf has been used throughout history, in maps, documents and diplomacy, from the ancient Persians, whose empire dominated the region, to the Greeks and the British.

“It is commonly understood to be a friendly gesture of solidarity and support for our host nation of Bahrain and our other Gulf Cooperation Council partners in the region to use the term they prefer,” Commander Stephens wrote in an email.
geography  geopolitics  middle-east  name  conflict 
january 2016 by aries1988
Friends and foes: rifts in the Middle East
Islamic State has no friends. But it has upended geopolitics in the Middle East and drawn America’s armed forces back to the region. Our “relationship mosaic” below summarises the friendships and enmities among countries, political groups and militant organisations in the Middle East. It provides a quick, simplified glimpse (the “neutral” category, for instance, embraces a large number of possibilities). Syria’s official al-Qaeda affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, is almost as isolated as IS: neither was invited to a conference of Syrian opposition groups convened this month by Saudi Arabia. The Syrian government is disliked by many countries, but supported by Iran and Russia. Russia’s relationship with Turkey deteriorated sharply after the Turks’ shooting-down of a Russian warplane in November. The Iraqi Kurds count numerous friends and no sworn enemies. America must play a delicate diplomatic game in holding together unlikely allies.
2015  middle-east  infographics  diplomacy  geopolitics 
december 2015 by aries1988
Petites îles, gros enjeux
Les Maldiviens sont soumis a une version rigoriste de la charia: le port du niqab est obligatoire pour les femmes et la peine capitale pur les enfants a meme ete reintrocuite en avril 2014.
ocean  geopolitics  story  2015  state  list  explained 
august 2015 by aries1988
The Decline of International Studies
If you want evidence-based expertise on terrorism in Pakistan, environmental degradation in China, or local politics in provincial Russia, there is someone in an American university who can provide it. It is harder to imagine a Pakistani scholar who knows Nebraska, a Chinese researcher who can speak with authority about the revival of Detroit, or a Russian professor who wields original survey data on the next U.S. presidential race.
usa  academia  geopolitics  study  world 
june 2015 by aries1988
Latvian Region Has Distinct Identity, and Allure for Russia - NYTimes.com
Only about 100,000 people actually speak Latgalian. The authorities in Riga, Latvia’s capital, consider it a dialect of Latvian, not a separate language, and nobody is punished for speaking it.

He said there were no signs of separatist fervor in Latgale itself and described the Latgalian People’s Republic as an “artificial creation by outsiders.”

Eastern Ukraine also displayed no separatist fervor until Russian-backed gunmen in March 2014 seized government buildings in Donetsk, silenced local supporters of Ukraine’s central government and, aided by Russian state television, mobilized a previously passive population to the separatist cause.

He noted that regular rotations of NATO troops and aircraft through Latvia had sent a firm message to Moscow that “the risks would be tremendous” if it tried to copy its Ukrainian playbook in the Baltics.

The exercise was held in the center of town, a few yards from a bronze statue called United for Latvia, a monument to national unity that, over the decades, has been more an emblem of the tenuousness of power in these parts. Erected in 1939 during a short-lived Latvian republic, it was taken down when the Soviet Union annexed the Baltics in 1940, put back up in 1943 during the Nazi occupation, removed again in 1950 after Moscow regained control, then put back up again in 1992 after Latvia regained its independence.

Though there are no reliable opinion polls to gauge Latgale’s discontent, the region has many reasons to feel separate, set apart by its religion — Catholicism instead of the Lutheranism favored elsewhere in Latvia — its dying language and its distinct, often nightmarish history.

“We are the smallest community but have the biggest graveyard,” said Lev Sukhobokov, a local Jewish leader, showing a reporter the spot where Germans and their Latvian helpers staged a mass killing of Rezekne’s Jews in 1941.
russia  2015  baltic  geopolitics 
may 2015 by aries1988
Le schiste, roi du pétrole
En lançant la révolution du gaz et du pétrole de schiste, les Américains ont fait d’une pierre deux coups : relancer leur économie et enrichir leur panoplie stratégique d’une arme supplémentaire.

Autrement dit, le calcul américain consistait à parier sur la baisse des prix du brut pour faire plier le Kremlin, déjà étranglé par les sanctions. Et ce pari n'était pas hasardeux, puisque les Etats-Unis eux-mêmes, ayant augmenté leur production de pétrole de 80 % en six ans, sont en grande partie à l'origine de la chute des prix. En lançant la révolution du gaz et du pétrole de schiste, qui a réussi au-delà de leurs espérances, les Américains ont fait d'une pierre deux coups : elle leur a permis de relancer leur économie et a enrichi leur panoplie stratégique d'une arme supplémentaire. S'agissant de M. Poutine, le pari n'est pas gagné puisque bien qu'à la tête d'un pays affaibli, il n'a pas, pour l'instant, cédé à la pression. Mais la vulnérabilité de l'économie russe est incontestable.

Dans les années 1980, les pays du Golfe avaient réagi à la concurrence du pétrole de la mer du Nord en baissant leur production. Echec sur toute la ligne, prix et parts de marché. Les cheikhs ont juré qu'on ne les y reprendrait plus. Ils abordent 2015 arc-boutés sur leurs parts de marché face au schiste, " quel que soit le prix ", a promis le ministre Al-Naimi.

Les cheikhs, assis sur leurs très confortables réserves, attendraient donc tout simplement que les prix baissent jusqu'au point où les producteurs américains y laisseront leur chemise, car l'extraction du pétrole de schiste revient plus cher que celle du brut conventionnel.
today  geopolitics  usa  middle-east  russia  oil&gas 
january 2015 by aries1988
Outrage in Okinawa - NYTimes.com
Many Okinawans believe, with justification, that their views are irrelevant to the Japanese government and the United States, whose geopolitical priorities trump local concerns about jet crashes, noise, environmental destruction and crime.
region  nation  conflict  geopolitics  japan 
november 2012 by aries1988

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