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日本还会再次发动战争吗? 日经中文网

日本不可能侵略中国的原因之一还有就是无法获得现在日本国民的支持。在1930年代日本存在侵略中国的背景。当时陷入经济大萧条的美国限制日本的产品进口,依赖对美出口的日本经济跌落深渊。日本缺乏石油等资源,经济陷入绝境。当时的日本处于人口爆炸式增加的时期,国内充满失业者。在当时的日本国民之中,对于通过战争和侵略解决困难局面显示出理解的人也不在少数。因此趁着经济和社会的混乱,主张对外扩张的军人从文官政治家手中夺取了政权。

但是,现代的日本则完全相反。人口正在减少,经济也保持良好,几乎接近充分就业状态。失业率降至2%,正受到劳动力短缺的困扰。经常项目收支维持顺差,政府和民间均拥有丰富的外汇,必要的资源和农作物可以从外国购买。通过武力夺取他国资源和土地的理由完全不存在。在现代日本,贫富差距扩大和少子老龄化等社会问题虽大量存在,但并不存在像1930年代那样军人不断暗杀政治家的严重社会矛盾和对立。即使有极端的民族主义者煽动侵略中国,大部分的日本国民也不会配合。
opinion  china  japan  war  numbers  military 
11 weeks ago by aries1988
內亞海洋與帝國秩序(一):豐饒之海 – Zhongjing Liu | 劉仲敬 – Medium
人类的文明,我把它解释成一个规则生成和演化的过程。

真正规则产生的地方,就是我发明了一个名词叫「原始丰饶」来称呼它,很大一部分,甚至大部分,都产生在人类文字和文明以前的时代。为什么会产生在这个时代?照列维·斯特劳斯的解释,恰好就是因为文字和文明的产生,导致了管制系统的加强,因此原先在无文时代,比较自由而多元化的演化,在文明和管制体系产生以后,反而变得缓慢和单一了。

文字产生以后,唯一产生的东西就是官僚制度和国家制度,而发明的速度反而是减慢了。

如果你把世界看成是一种达尔文式的生态演化产物,那你就可以看出,规则在什么情况下能够最大限度的产生和演化。它应该是多元的,应该存在着许多个彼此之间相对孤立的小生态环境,局部规则在这样的小生态环境中间,能够充分的产生,在它产生做大以前,不会受到太多的干涉。它要有一定流动性,但是流动速度是有限的和缓慢的,也就是说,不同的小生态环境,以及各种不同的局部规则,要通过相互渗透接触和碰撞,不断地深化和演进。但是,速度不能快到席卷一切的地步。

这种环境之是不利于规则复杂度的演化的。

文明的核心区,表面上看是最繁荣,光华最盛的地方,恰好是消耗得最厉害的地方。

分为三种在时间上有交错,但是先后顺序还是很明显的类型:高地型,湿地型和草原型。

回顾文明最初产生的状态

一般人理解的文明,就是第二种类型的文明,在湿地建立起来的文明。一般来说这种文明能够供最大量的人口,可能人类的80–90%以上,都是来自于这种湿地的人口,能够建立起大帝国和强大的官僚机构,能够供养大批知识分子,能够建立巨大的神庙和公共建筑物的文明

第三种文明是产生最晚、草原型的文明。

他们不能独立存在,他们的某些至关紧要的物质需要通过交易,从其他周围的文明中取得,而自己没办法产生。所以这种文明一定是次生型的文明。

退到一个更加边远的草原地带以后,更加依赖草原以后,寻求新的技术突破,然后产生新型的文明。

这个文明的重要性在哪呢?它产生了对后来全世界影响很大的突破。它突破了军事技术,通过军事技术产生了军事贵族。而在次生型的大多数文明当中,军事贵族制度是他们宪法制度的核心。

后来产生的文明,特别是雅利安人入侵以后的文明,完全不是这个样子。他们的军事色彩是异常突出的,军事贵族始终在统治权力中间处于核心地位。

极大地加快了传播的速度。加快传播的速度,也就是意味着缩短了孤立系统独立演化规则的时间

武士跟奴隶不一样,商王也用大量的奴隶来殉葬,但是武士恐怕是自愿殉葬的。因为你很难强迫他们殉葬,

为什么这个技术来自中亚?到底还是因为中亚是草原上是竞争最激烈的地方,它是军事演化速度最快的地方。

西亚这个地方,从加息特人(原居于札格罗斯山脉中部。公元前16世纪初占据巴比伦,建立加息特王朝)入侵到雅利安人入侵,基本上几十年就一波

五胡十六国的入侵肯定是扮演了类似的军事革命。而西魏北周,建立隋唐的过程,可以看成是新一波的入侵和革新,残唐五代,一直到辽金元这个系统,又可以看成是一批新的边区武士系统的入侵。每一次都伴随着军事制度的改变和政治制度的相应改变。
china  civ  concep  theory  east-asia  middle-asia  technology  warrior  military  empire  evolution 
september 2018 by aries1988
Histoire de la Guerre de Trente Ans (1618-1648) (1/4) : Le grand entretien
Un grand entretien avec l'historien Hervé Drévillon, spécialiste d'histoire militaire pour inaugurer cette série de quatre émissions consacrée à un conflit terrible qui a ensanglanté l’Europe dans la première moitié du 17e siècle : la Guerre de Trente Ans.
europe  xvii  history  war  france  military 
september 2018 by aries1988
The Interpreter
(1) It’s over. We failed. North Korea is a nuclear power now.
2017  korea  asia  crisis  usa  war  nuclear  military  success 
november 2017 by aries1988
A bord de l’« Auvergne », en mer de Chine du Sud

Les nations qui comptent dans le Pacifique (Etats-Unis, Chine, Russie, France, Australie) assurent toutes ici une présence militaire visible en mer. Ce vendredi, trois frégates russes anti-sous-marines viennent d'arriver à Manille, à la veille d'une réunion des ministres de la défense de l'Asie du Sud-Est.

Le risque est de voir un jour la mer de Chine du Sud se fermer comme un lac, prenant en otage les intérêts des autres puissances. En naviguant dans ces eaux chaudes et lointaines, les marins espèrent retarder l'échéance.
français  military  sea  mission  china  world  challenge 
november 2017 by aries1988
Top Gun’s topper
Is the world’s most expensive fighter-jet helmet really that good?
aircraft  military  usa  fighter 
september 2016 by aries1988
War and peace in Asia — FT.com
he was also keen to reassure his audience that China’s rise would not lead to conflict with the outside world — “We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap — destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers,” he insisted.

Xi’s reference to “Thucydides’ trap” showed that he (or his staff) had been following the American debate about the rise of China. Graham Allison, a Harvard professor, had coined the phrase with reference to the ancient Greek historian’s observation that the war between Athens and Sparta in the fifth century BC was caused by Sparta's fears of a rising Athens. He has calculated that in 12 of 16 cases since 1500, the rivalry between a great power and a rising power had ended in war.

In the Middle East, a state-system largely constructed by Britain and France in the early 20th century — and which was then maintained by American power after 1945 — is now crumbling, amid violence and political anarchy.

The red thread connecting these seemingly regional crises is the west’s growing inability to function as a pole of stability and power, imposing order on a chaotic world.

The fundamental reason for the shift in economic power to Asia is simple: weight of numbers. By 2025 some two-thirds of the world’s population will live in Asia. By contrast the US will account for about 5 per cent of the world’s population and the European Union about 7 per cent.

Hans Rosling of Sweden’s Karolinska Institute puts it nicely when he describes the world’s pin code as “1114” — meaning that of the planet’s 7bn people, roughly 1bn live in Europe, 1bn live in the Americas, 1bn in Africa and 4bn in Asia. By 2050, the world’s population is likely to be 9bn, and the pin code will change to 1125, with both Africa and Asia adding a billion people.

stalwarts of the US foreign policy establishment, such as Madeleine Albright and Tom Donilon, make it clear that the maintenance of open global markets and the US alliance system remain the twin pillars of American foreign policy — as since 1945.
today  geopolitics  world  china  usa  europe  opinion  conflict  future  asia  economy  military 
august 2016 by aries1988
Paris Attacks Have Many in France Eager to Join the Fight
French military spending, which reached 42 billion euros, or more than $52 billion, last year for military operations, weapons, surveillance networks and other support, will grow by €600 million next year to finance the new positions and necessary equipment, Finance Minister Michel Sapin said last week. The French Army, currently the largest in Western Europe, will take on an additional 10,000 recruits this year and 15,000 more next year. The French national police force and gendarmerie will expand by about 5,000 members, along with 1,000 new customs inspection positions and 2,500 at the French Ministry of Justice.
nation  2015  military  people  français  terrorism 
december 2015 by aries1988
How the Terracotta Army Works — Stuff You Should Know
In 1974, Chinese farmers discovered the first of what would number 7,000 terracotta soldiers meant to protect China’s first emperor in the afterlife.
china  civ  military 
july 2015 by aries1988
Army Deserter Is Jailed for Chasing the Conflicts That Steadied His Mind
Lieutenant Lawrence J. Franks Jr. was sentenced to four years in prison and dismissed from the Army after he was accused of enlisting in the French Foreign Legion.
france  story  military  usa 
january 2015 by aries1988
Israël, vol au-dessus d’un nid de drones

Trônant au milieu des locaux, l'AirMule, machine étrange aux airs de voiture volante, est le résultat de douze années de travail et de 37 brevets. Cet hélicoptère sans pilote, à décollage et atterrissage vertical, a l'étrange particularité d'avoir ses rotors intégrés à l'intérieur du fuselage. Objectif : pouvoir évacuer les blessés et ravitailler les troupes dans des zones de guerre où ne peut intervenir un hélicoptère traditionnel, rendu vulnérable par le rayon de ses pales. Mi-2015, l'appareil sera testé dans le désert du Néguev (Sud).
military  today  drone 
november 2014 by aries1988
How to Stop a Nuclear War
Containment worked. Communism was not defeated militarily: it was defeated economically, culturally, and ideologically. Exhausted by the military competition with the United States, Khrushchev's successors were unable to provide their own people with a basic level of material prosperity. By acquiring nuclear weapons, the North Korean communists have warded off the threat of foreign intervention. But they have failed to resolve any of their underlying economic problems and may even have deepened them. Communism will eventually defeat itself in North Korea -- just as it did in the Soviet Union. We just have to be patient.
history  war  military 
april 2013 by aries1988
韩国延长导弹射程 - 纽约时报中文网 国际纵览
根据修订之后的方针,韩国可以部署射程达800公里的导弹,这一射程足以覆盖朝鲜全境,但却不会对中国或是日本造成威胁,前提是导弹的有效载荷不超过500公斤。此外,韩国还可以在较短程弹道导弹上安装重量不超过两吨的弹头。
googlereader  asia  korea  military 
october 2012 by aries1988
Japan-America military alliance: Hard landing | The Economist
The arrival of new American military aircraft into Japan this week could hardly have been less conspicuous
japan  american  china  military 
july 2012 by aries1988

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