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维舟 : 假如中国打赢了甲午战争 _ 腾讯 · 大家
多年后,翰林院编修恽毓鼎一语道破:甲午之丧师,戊戌之变政,己亥之建储,庚子之义和团,名虽四事,实一贯相生,必知此而后可论十年之朝局。甲午战败,成了新变革强大的原动力。

最关键的是:战争中暴露出的问题,反映了当时的中国仍非一个现代国家,人们并无整体的国家观念,基本是各行其是的实体。当时的西方观察家曾一阵见血地指出:这是李鸿章一人与日本之间的战争。战争结束后,《泰晤士报》评论:中国仅为各省之堆积,全然没有可称为统一国家等之价值。

中国现代民族国家的形成,实际上是在抵抗侵略的国难与危机中形成的——实际上,最初体现在康有为公车上书之中的现代民族国家观念,是经由日本明治宪法而介绍到中国来的。而按孔飞力的观点,这种看法的出现,只有在国家面临着外来征服以及——用1890年代这一帝国主义时代所流行的社会达尔文主义的语言来说——亡国灭种的危难时刻,才是可能想象的。
whatif  war  china  japan 
july 2014 by aries1988
The War to End All Wars? Hardly. But It Did Change Them Forever. - NYTimes.com

Nearly 12,000 soldiers are buried here — some 8,400 of them identified only as A Soldier of the Great War, Known Unto God. Despite the immensity of this space, the soldiers represent only a tiny portion of the 8.5 million or more from both sides who died, and that number a fraction of the 20 million who were severely wounded.

In Europe’s first total war, called the Great War until the second one came along, seven million civilians also died.

It gave independence to nations like Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic countries and created new nations in the Middle East with often arbitrary borders;

a system of rivalries, alliances and anxieties, driven by concerns about the growing weakness of the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires and the growing strength of Germany and Russia that was likely to produce a war in any case, even if there was some other casus belli.

The memory of July 1, 1916, the first day of the Battle of the Somme — when 20,000 British soldiers died, 40,000 were wounded and 60 percent of officers were killed — has marked British consciousness and become a byword for mindless slaughter.

The end of the Cold War was in a sense a return to the end of World War I, restoring sovereignty to the countries of Eastern Europe, one reason they are so eager to defend it now.
ww1  today  history  battle  death  cemetery  soldier  war 
july 2014 by aries1988
In Sarajevo, Divisions That Drove an Assassin Have Only Begun to Heal

In the centenary commemorations in Sarajevo, culminating on Saturday with a concert in the old city hall, peace is the official theme. But the ethnic and nationalist divisions that motivated Princip are anything but history in this part of the world, which was ravaged only two decades ago by bloody sectarian fighting and is even now the scene of dueling efforts to define Princip’s legacy. As Europe diligently promotes an ideology of harmony, broad areas of the continent, the Middle East and elsewhere continue to struggle with versions of the destructive forces unleashed that day.

In 1914, France was, with Russia, the closest ally of Serbia: the newly independent nation that Princip saw as the linchpin of a new order in the Balkans, one that would unite all Balkan Serbs in a “greater Serbia” once the colonial hold of the Austro-Hungarians and the Ottomans had been broken.
europe  ww1  origin  balkan  crisis  ethnic  war 
june 2014 by aries1988
战后零年 – 桃花坞
"绝不重演"的决心让二战之后的世界格局发生了重大改变:以色列的建立是为了让欧洲的几百万犹太难民有一个自己的国家;日本和平宪法的确立是为了不让军国主义重新兴起;欧盟的组成是为了保持欧洲国家之间不再兵戎相见;联合国的建立是为了维护世界新秩序。但是生活在1945年的人们,大概也不会想到在和平到来之后,亚洲的许多地方还要经历几年的内战,东西方冷战即将开始,朝鲜战争将在几年后爆发,而德国人将会经历50多年的分裂局面。
book  ww2  story  reconciliation  war  people  life 
june 2014 by aries1988
'Missing Histories': History Education and China-Japan Relations
'Missing Histories': History Education and China-Japan Relations via @instapaper
documentary  japan  china  war  history  claasroom  education 
march 2014 by aries1988
北大未名站 同主题阅读: 从14到19世纪的欧洲外交与战争史看中国之世界战略 ...
14世纪到19世纪的外交和战争告诉我们:

第一,一个国家需要有至少一个有力量的同盟国,一般奉行远交近攻的战略,但不绝对。
对中国而言,这个国家可能是巴西,可能是法国,也可能是俄罗斯。从长远看,是巴西的
可能性更大。

第二,盟国少的国家可以打败盟国众多的国家。

第三,战争经验少的陆军和海军可以击败号称世界第一的超级大国的陆军和海军。

第四,指挥比装备更重要。

第五,财政非常重要,金钱外交也相当重要,法国人和英国人曾很善于运用这点。

第六,也是最重要的一点,利益永远超过意识形态,天主教国家可以打天主教同盟,基督
教国家可以与伊斯兰教的教主——哈里发结成同盟。那种以专制或民主来划分阵营的思想
是不符合实际的。
diplomacy  history  nutshell  europe  war  china 
january 2014 by aries1988
ITALIE • La vallée des armes ne connaît pas la crise | Courrier international
Pistolets et fusils sont une spécialité d’excellence italienne. Injustement négligée, cette industrie –dont le chiffre d’affaires annuel est estimé à 5,2 milliards d’euros– est comparable, en termes de taille et de qualité, aux secteurs de la mode et de la gastronomie.
Le petit bijou du groupe Beretta, symbole du “made in Italie”, au même titre que la Ferrari ou la cafetière à pression Bialetti, équipe les forces de l’ordre italiennes et l’armée américaine. “T’es pas un vrai marine tant que t’as pas bouffé de l’acier italien”, assène un membre des Navy Seals [forces spéciales américaines].
war  italia 
may 2013 by aries1988
How to Stop a Nuclear War
Containment worked. Communism was not defeated militarily: it was defeated economically, culturally, and ideologically. Exhausted by the military competition with the United States, Khrushchev's successors were unable to provide their own people with a basic level of material prosperity. By acquiring nuclear weapons, the North Korean communists have warded off the threat of foreign intervention. But they have failed to resolve any of their underlying economic problems and may even have deepened them. Communism will eventually defeat itself in North Korea -- just as it did in the Soviet Union. We just have to be patient.
history  war  military 
april 2013 by aries1988
The Third Reich revisited: The war generation | The Economist
Yet they did not prompt the same intergenerational questioning. “Unsere Mütter, unsere Väter” has reminded the public that this is their last chance to talk to survivors. Films such as “Schindler’s List”, “Holocaust”, an American television series, and the German-made “Downfall”, which tracks Hitler’s final days, all caused passing sensations in Germany. Yet they did not prompt the same intergenerational questioning. “Unsere Mütter, unsere Väter” has reminded the public that this is their last chance to talk to survivors. What comes across strongly from these accounts is that after 1943 most intelligent Germans accepted that the war was lost. If they fought on it was out of desperation or camaraderie. That has prompted some critics to suggest that putting five sympathetic young protagonists into a harrowing story just offers the war generation a fresh bunch of excuses. It’s never over.
Films such as “Schindler’s List”, “Holocaust”, an American television series, and the German-made “Downfall”, which tracks Hitler’s final days, all caused passing sensations in Germany. Yet they did not prompt the same intergenerational questioning. “Unsere Mütter, unsere Väter” has reminded the public that this is their last chance to talk to survivors.

What comes across strongly from these accounts is that after 1943 most intelligent Germans accepted that the war was lost. If they fought on it was out of desperation or camaraderie.

That has prompted some critics to suggest that putting five sympathetic young protagonists into a harrowing story just offers the war generation a fresh bunch of excuses. It’s never over.
from:kindle  tv  war  germany 
april 2013 by aries1988
点燃战争:75年前的卢沟桥现场
http://www.instapaper.com/read/372816045
“九一八事变”发生的第二天,1931年9月19日凌晨6点左右,关东军便迅速占领奉天。1932年2月,东北重镇哈尔滨陷落。短短4个月内,东三省百万平方公里的大好河山,沦落他人手里。 日本的下一步目标是什么?占领了广袤而肥沃的东三省,是否已经让这个野心勃勃的岛国贪婪的欲望得到满足?这不仅是当时的中国人,也是关心远东局势的国际观察者们的疑问。
“日本对满洲完成军事与经济征服后,远东的诸多乐观人士相信,此后至少可保半个世纪以上的和平。他们认为,日本要‘消化并开发’吞下的广袤疆域,至少需耗时50年。因为日本新到手的土地面积达50万平方英里,可以支撑7000万人口,而当时的总人口只有3200万。于是这些乐观者便对自己说,这一来,日本人进攻与扩张的贪欲,便可大大消停了。”《纽约时报》驻华首席记者哈雷特·阿班(Hallett Abend)早在1926年就来到中国,他后来在自己的回忆录这样描述当时一些人的心态。 后来的历史证明,这种想法大大低估了那些欲壑难填的战争狂人们。
这天上午,还在牯岭召开会议的中国军政最高统帅蒋介石,接到报告事变经过。蒋介石闻讯大惊,继而对日军制造这一事变的真实意图,以及中国将如何采取应对策略,做了反复思考与细致推敲,其焦虑、矛盾、痛苦、犹豫之神情,从蒋氏本人当天的日记中可以看出:“一、倭寇已在卢沟桥挑衅,彼将乘我准备未完之时使我屈服乎?二、与宋哲元为难乎?使华北独立乎?三、决心应战,此其时乎?”
from:kindle  war  japan  history 
march 2013 by aries1988
乾隆爷的火器真的完胜“血滴子”吗?
当初明朝虽然相当重视火器的运用,但也没有能够战胜在火器上差出一截的女真人,甚至也没有能够战胜李闯王的乌合之众。说明在古代的中国,热兵器并未完全压倒冷兵器。即使在当代,使用冷兵器仍然是特种部队的必修课。所以,作为以暗杀为主要作战方式的“血滴子”部队,其实完全不用慨叹“火器一出,神功无用”,更何况他们手中还有重不到2.5公斤,可以遥控和精确制导的“血滴子”。
war  chinese  history  analysis 
december 2012 by aries1988
British have invaded nine out of ten countries - so look out Luxembourg - Telegraph
The countries never invaded by the British: Andorra Belarus Bolivia Burundi Central African Republic Chad Congo, Republic of Guatemala Ivory Coast Kyrgyzstan Liechtenstein Luxembourg Mali Marshall Islands Monaco Mongolia Paraguay Sao Tome and Principe Sweden Tajikistan Uzbekistan Vatican City
http://www.instapaper.com/read/342475366
history  england  war 
december 2012 by aries1988
Israel 2012 vs. London 1944 - By Michael Peck | Foreign Policy
The irony is that while smart bombs are supposed to be the pinnacle of warfare, it's the dumb bombs that are the real pains. If the V-1s or Hamas rockets were precision-guided weapons, the British and Israelis could guess their enemies' likely targets and concentrate their defenses accordingly. But when a rocket has an equal chance of striking an empty field or an apartment building, it is difficult to know which can be ignored and which must be destroyed. Low-tech is low-tech, but it is an effective way to wage warfare.
googlereader  economy  comparison  economie  war  history 
november 2012 by aries1988
Soldaten: On Fighting, Killing and Dying by Sönke Neitzel and Harald Welzer – review | Books | The Observer
Discovered in 2001 by the historian Sönke Neitzel, the transcripts of conversations between German prisoners of war, secretly recorded by the British and American intelligence services, offer a vivid and at times surprising insight into the mentality of the German military.

the decisive factor in making atrocities possible was "a general realignment from a civilian to a wartime frame of reference". For many of the recruits, war was simply the continuation of work by other means.
googlereader  war  ww2  enemy  human  behavior  killing  psychology  soldier  history 
october 2012 by aries1988
中国人对日本的仇恨能否消除? - 纽约时报中文网 国际纵览
中国历史上所曾发生的事件中,能跟日本入侵中国之国耻处于同等严重程度的,只有南宋时期的“靖康之耻”。中国人现在对日本人的恨,用当年岳飞的《满江红》来形容最恰当不过了。“靖康耻,犹未雪;臣子憾,何时灭。驾长车踏破、贺兰山缺。壮志饥餐胡虏肉,笑谈渴饮匈奴血。”...
如果政府在对日问题上过于软弱,必将进一步伤害中共的执政合法性。而反过来,如果对日发生战争,并且获胜,那么一雪百年耻辱的功绩将极大的强化中国共产党的民意基础,给未来进行政治体制改革创造有利条件。
googlereader  japan  china  history  war 
september 2012 by aries1988
转自《三联生活周刊》“甲午110年,我们该纪念什么” (评论: 清日战争)
    曾任清政府海关总税务司的英国人赫德曾经对严复表达过这样的见地:“海军之于人国,譬犹树之有花,必有根柢枝干,坚实繁茂,而与风日水土有相得之宜,而后花见焉。由花而实,树之年寿亦以弥长。今之贵国海军,其不满于吾子之意者众矣。终必当于根本求之,徒苛于海军,未见其益也。”
http://www.instapaper.com/read/315845248
war  history  china  japan 
august 2012 by aries1988
译言网-精选 | 外交政策 | 2012中日海战
甲午海战是中国人心中永远的痛。随着中日两国在海上岛屿归属权的纠纷问题上摩擦日趋激烈,不禁要问:假如在太平洋上狭路相逢,谁会成为最后的赢家:中国还是日本?
googlereader  war  china  japan 
august 2012 by aries1988
Our War Against the Pashtuns
http://www.instapaper.com/read/269085562

The fact is that a plurality of Afghans are rural Pashtuns. Leaving aside the reasons for the US intervention in Afghanistan in 2001 (which I continue to believe was in itself justified as a response to the September 11 attacks), it is obvious that the effect on Afghanistan’s civil war was to tip the military balance in favor of the non-Pashtun nationalities and the small number of more-or-less “secular” or at least urbanized Pashtun forces (represented in the anti-Taliban “Northern Alliance”), and against the forces of Pashtun rural conservatism. Unfortunately, the great majority of Pashtuns still live in the countryside, or are recent migrants to the cities who have not yet adopted the more open attitudes of urban society. The tragic reality, then, is that among the Pashtuns, no mass constituency for liberal reforms exists—at least of the kind that could have given democratic support for such reforms or motivated large numbers of young Pashtuns to volunteer to fight and die for them in the way that they have been willing to fight and die for the Taliban.

In Afghanistan itself, the Pashtuns make up some 40 percent of the population (though of course estimates by Pashtuns themselves range up to 70 percent), considerably outnumbering the next biggest ethnicity, the Tajiks. Almost equally important however is the fact that most Pashtuns in the world live not in Afghanistan but in neighboring Pakistan, which has more than 20 million. The fact that the Pashtuns straddle the British-drawn border between Afghanistan and Pakistan has had disastrous effects over the past 40 years
afghanistan  usa  war  history  ethnic  analysis  2012 
august 2012 by aries1988
柴静:没深夜痛哭过的人,不足以谈人生
柴静:没有深夜痛哭过的人,不足以谈人生。很多事不用问值不值得,只用问,它对你来说,是不是有如珍宝。
story  taiwan  war  conflict  tragedy  home  shandong  heze  death  parents  ww2  son 
august 2012 by aries1988
黄仁宇谈日本
最近几年每逢重要的抗战周年,有如1995年的战事结束五十周年和1997年的卢沟桥事变六十周年,都有朋友邀请参加他们的集会。我都借词推托,原来电话里也难能解释,他们的集会,都有发愤雪耻示威之含义,我如参加,势必表态。朋友们没有想到,在重要的集会表态已不只是私人言论而近于公众之行动。我虽然不反对他们集会的动机,但是既已牵涉上国民外交,应当瞻前顾后,将所有有关因素提出通盘考虑,我的专长在历史,本来应当就所知提供年轻的朋友们参考,但是当中的复杂曲折不可能在群情激昂的集会当头解释得明白。即是今日濡笔临纸,还怕写得不妥当,徒生误解。 http://www.instapaper.com/read/294989882
china  japan  ww2  war  history  today  future 
june 2012 by aries1988
纸上谈兵:萨尔浒之战以少胜多的原理
历史上那些以少胜多的战役总是被后人津津乐道,因为它们时常让人觉得有些不可思议。这一次,本文用数学解析战争,讲述了明清之间最重要的一场战役——萨尔浒之战以少胜多背后的数学故事。来看死理性派挥斥方遒,纸上谈兵吧。
war  maths  modelisation 
august 2011 by aries1988

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