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charlesarthur : idc   45

Gartner, IDC agree that PC sales are up—but they don’t agree what a PC is • Ars Technica
:
<p>We've been hearing for quite some time that the traditional PC is dying, but it's not quite dead yet. Business analyst firms Gartner and IDC tackle the numbers differently, but both agree that sales of traditional PCs were up—in some regions, way up—in Q2 2019.

While both firms reported market growth in year-on-year PC sales, their actual figures differed. IDC <a href="https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45358619">reported a 4.7% growth in Q2 sales</a>, where <a href="https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2019-07-11-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-grew-1point5percent-in-second-quarter-of-2019">Gartner only reported 1.5%</a>. The two firms' numbers for US regional sales differed even more sharply, with Gartner claiming a 0.4% loss and IDC claiming a "high single digit gain."

We spoke to IDC's Jitesh Ubrani about the difference, and it turns out the two companies don't quite agree on what is or is not a traditional PC. IDC counts Chromebooks as traditional PCs but doesn't count Microsoft Surface tablets; Gartner does count Surface but doesn't count Chromebooks. The higher numbers from IDC indicate a stronger market for Chromebooks than Surface, which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone with children in North American schools, where the inexpensive and easily locked-down Chromebooks are ubiquitous.</p>


Should be pretty easy to get the Chromebook number: estimating the number of Surfaces sold isn't hard (it's typically about a million per quarter, tops). Subtract and there you go.
gartner  idc  pc 
9 weeks ago by charlesarthur
Commercial segment provides a bright spot in the traditional PC market • IDC
<p>The worldwide market for traditional PCs, inclusive of desktops, notebooks, and workstations, declined 3.0% year over year in the first quarter of 2019 (1Q19), according to preliminary results from International Data Corporation's (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. Global shipments were above expectations, reaching 58.5m during the quarter.

Although the shortage of Intel processors, mostly at the lower end, remained a factor in seeing a contraction in 1Q19, the market performed better than expected with most regions exceeding forecast. Stronger than expected desktop shipments further boosted volume, coming on the heels of a tough previous quarter, (4Q18), which had lackluster consumer demand and desktop supply issues. Furthermore, more PC brands turned to AMD chips. All of this, combined with firms rounding the last corner on its Windows 10 migration deployments, led to a shift in the market for traditional PCs towards more commercial and premium products.

"Desktop PCs were surprisingly resilient as the commercial segment helped drive a refresh during the quarter," said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC's Mobile Device Trackers. "Capitalizing on this refresh cycle, the top vendors – HP, Lenovo, and Dell – each increased their year-over-year volume and captured additional share in the desktop PC market."</p>


So it's "above expectations" when shipments fall below 60m, the first time that's happened in the first quarter since 2006? A fall of 3% is "better than expected"? This is "the glass has a hole, but just now it's half-full! Yay!"

<a href="https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2019-04-10-gartner-says-worldwide-pc-shipments-declined-4-6-perc">Gartner is gloomier</a>, reckoning shipments fell 4.6%, and OEMs allocated their hard-to-get CPUs to high-margin devices and Chromebooks. "Including Chromebook shipments, the decline would have been 3.5%" - which to me implies Chromebook shipments were just 0.7m, unless it's comparing the PCs+Chromebooks figure for both the 2018 and 2019 quarters; in the latter case you can't know how many Chromebooks were shipped, only that 0.7m fewer shipped in 2019.
gartner  idc  pc 
april 2019 by charlesarthur
Smartphone shipments expected to drop for the third consecutive year in 2019 • IDC
<p>the smartphone market continues to be challenged and 2019 is projected to experience its third consecutive year of declining shipments. Worldwide smartphone volumes are forecast to fall by 0.8% in 2019 with volumes dipping to 1.39bn. However, the smartphone market will begin to pick up momentum this year with year-over-year growth of 2.3% expected in the second half of the year. Over the long term, smartphone shipments are forecast to reach 1.54bn units in 2023.

"The biggest question that remains unanswered is what will bring the smartphone industry back to growth," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "There is no question industry growth has been down for reasons that have already been identified – longer replacement cycles, a challenged China market, and geopolitical headwinds – but it is shortsighted to overlook the possibilities of some important technology advancements that are within reach with 5G probably being the most significant."</p>


Essentially static - but I'd expect replacement cycles will keep lengthening as people replace elements rather than the whole of expensive smartphones.
smartphone  idc 
march 2019 by charlesarthur
Smartphone woes continue with worldwide shipments down 4.9% in Q4 2018 • IDC
<p>smartphone vendors shipped a total of 375.4m units during the fourth quarter of 2018 (4Q18), down 4.9% year over year and the fifth consecutive quarter of decline. The challenging holiday quarter closes out the worst year ever for smartphone shipments with global smartphone volumes declining 4.1% in 2018 with a total of 1.4bn units shipped for the full year. With challenging market conditions continuing into the first quarter of 2019, the likelihood of a declining market this year becomes more of a reality.

"Globally the smartphone market is a mess right now," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "Outside of a handful of high-growth markets like India, Indonesia, Korea, and Vietnam, we did not see a lot of positive activity in 2018. We believe several factors are at play here, including lengthening replacement cycles, increasing penetration levels in many large markets, political and economic uncertainty, and growing consumer frustration around continuously rising price points."

…China, which accounts for roughly 30% of the world's smartphone consumption, had an even worse 2018 than the previous year with volumes down just over 10%. High inventory continues to be a challenge across the market as is consumer spending on devices, which has been down overall. At the same time the top 4 brands, all of which are Chinese – Huawei, OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi – grew their share of the China market to roughly 78%, up from 66% in 2017.

On a worldwide basis, the top 5 smartphone companies continue to get stronger and now account for 69% of smartphone volume, up from 63% a year ago. If vivo is included, which is currently number six and has been in and out of the top 5 in recent quarters, the share of the top companies is 75% and growing.</p>

OK, but I'm not sure you can call a year that saw the second-highest number of shipments recorded the "worst ever". Counterpoint Research <a href="https://www.counterpointresearch.com/global-smartphone-market-declines-first-time-cy-2018/">puts the total shipped at 1.498bn</a>, and says the market was down 4% on 2017. Lenovo looks to be in real trouble, down 23% year-on-year.
idc  smartphone 
february 2019 by charlesarthur
Gartner, IDC were both wildly wrong in guessing Apple's Q4 Mac shipments • Apple Insider
Daniel Eran Dilger:
<p>The fact that Gartner and IDC were both so wrong about Apple's Mac sales is particularly shocking because Apple reports its Mac shipments every quarter, making it easier to refine the model that analysts use to make their sales projections. No other PC maker issues verified sales data every quarter, meaning there's no way for outside estimates to check their own math against reality.

If Gartner and IDC are that wrong about Mac shipments, their PC numbers are even more untrustworthy.

And of course, moving forward into fiscal 2019, Apple will no longer report its Mac and iPad unit sales each quarter. That means the final verifiable data we now have to challenge analyst estimates will be gone. The only way we will know that Apple isn't doomed is if it is still in business.

The direction of the market on a quarterly basis (in terms of unit market share and growth) will also be a huge question mark. The only way we will know that Gartner and IDC have unreliable data is that they've had unreliable data and insight in the past. After all, IDC once predicted that both Windows Phone and Windows Tablets would be hits that crushed the growth Apple's iPhone and iPad, without offering any actual facts supporting the idea either time.

It is pretty clear that the PC market has not been growing, even if the guesswork numbers from Gartner and IDC can't really be relied upon to be factual. But we also know that Gartner and IDC have spent the last decade <a href="https://appleinsider.com/articles/13/11/16/the-curious-case-of-idc-gartner-strategy-analytics-pc-phone-tablet-data-on-apple">issuing gerrymandered data</a> to make it look like tablets—specifically iPads sold by Apple—weren't having any material, discernible effect on PC sales, undeniably to make Microsoft's Windows business look better than it was.</p>


DED's point (on the gerrymandering) is that the iPad did have an effect on general PC sales back in 2013, and arguably contributed to the fall in the consumer PC market that we've seen since 2011. It's pretty hard to argue against that: for many home users, an iPad really can do everything their older PC could. (So can their smartphone.) But of course, those who frame the debate win the debate - and as he says in the "gerrymandering" article, linked, by framing the iPad as "not a PC" both Gartner and IDC could suggest the iPad wasn't important.

Plus the fact that they always get Apple's "PC" numbers wrong isn't encouraging, given that Apple is going to stop releasing them.

Speaking of tablets...
apple  pc  ipad  tablet  gartner  idc 
november 2018 by charlesarthur
Tablet market sees modest decline of 8.6% as slate and detachable categories continue to struggle • IDC
<p>Slate tablets accounted for the majority of the market with 31.6m units, down 7.9% from the previous year. Detachable tablets also declined, down 13.1% from the previous year, to account for 4.8m unit shipments.

"The detachable market has failed to see growth in 2018, a worrying trend that has plagued the category off and on since the end of 2016," said Lauren Guenveur, senior research analyst for IDC's Tablet team. "In October we finally saw the highly anticipated refreshes of Apple's iPad Pro and Microsoft's Surface Pro, as well as new products by Samsung and Google, which lead us to believe that the last quarter of the year will turn the detachable category around, at least for the time being. Increasingly sparse are new products by the top-tier PC OEMs as they remain more focused on their convertible portfolio, a move that will ultimately affect the overall trajectory of the detachable market going forward."

"The tablet market is more like the traditional PC market than ever before," said Jitesh Ubrani, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. "Not only do these markets move in sync with each other, but the decreasing margins and overall decline, particularly in slate tablets, has led to the top 5 companies capturing a larger share as many small vendors have exited the space or simply treat the tablet market with a much lower priority. Even among the top 5, it is essentially Apple and to a lesser extent Samsung that continue to invest heavily in product innovation and marketing. This has helped the two companies to set themselves apart from the rest."</p>


Have a look at the numbers: Apple has over 25% share, and "others" - one suspects mostly cheap Chinese media consumption tablets, or perhaps a few for commercial applications - nearly a third. There's just no room for profit as the market contracts, squeezing harder even than the PC market.

Only Apple, Samsung and Amazon have a real reason to be there: Apple makes profit, Samsung sells its screens and reinforces its brand, and Amazon uses it as a trojan horse for its content offerings.
tablet  idc 
november 2018 by charlesarthur
With expectations of a positive second half of 2018 and beyond, smartphone volumes poised to return to growth • IDC
<p>Android's smartphone share will hover around 85% share throughout the forecast. Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.4%, with shipments approaching 1.41bn in 2022. Among the more interesting trends happening with Android shipments is that average selling prices (ASPs) are growing at a double-digit pace. IDC expects Android ASPs to grow 11.4% in 2018 to $262, up from $235 in 2017.

IDC expects this upward trajectory to continue through the forecast, but at a more tempered low single-digit rate from 2019 and beyond. This is a sign of many OEMs slowly migrating their user base upstream to the slightly more expensive handsets. Overall this is a positive sign that consumers are seeing the benefits of moving to a slightly more premium device than they likely previously owned. The broad range of colors, screen sizes, features, and brands are a large catalyst for this movement.

For iOS, iPhone volumes are expected to grow by 2.1% in 2018 to 220.4m in total. IDC is forecasting iPhones to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.0%, reaching volumes of 238.5m by 2022. With larger screen iOS smartphones coming up for launch in the second half of 2018, IDC has shifted greater volumes into the 6in to sub-7in screen size forecast for iOS. Products are on schedule to begin shipping in the third quarter and ramping up into the fourth quarter of 2018, with volumes growing to account for half of all iPhones shipped by 2022. </p>


The OS market is a complete duopoly; 85% Android, 15% iOS. And IDC sees it continuing that way. Apple gets the money, Android gets the volume.
apple  android  ios  iphone  idc  smartphone 
august 2018 by charlesarthur
Apple and Huawei flex their strength in a declining tablet market • IDC
<p>According to the latest figures published by International Data Corporation (IDC), the overall tablet market for Western Europe declined 10.1% YoY, shipping 6.3 million units in the second quarter of 2018 (2Q18).

Slates exhibited a degree of resilience in the commercial space, following strength in certain niche use-case deployments. However, market saturation, lengthening life cycles and a lack of innovation resulted in the ongoing sluggish demand on the consumer side, leading to an overall decline of 6.1% YoY. In terms of volume, detachables had a challenging quarter, declining by 23.3% YoY. As the market has become increasingly dominated by Apple and Microsoft, and consequently more premium-focused, the range of options available to more price-constrained customers has diminished, leading them to consider cheaper alternatives such as lower end convertibles or even traditional PCs. Furthermore, the announcement of upcoming product releases from the main players likely acted as an inhibiting factor on overall demand this quarter, as customers postponed their purchases in anticipation of these newer devices.</p>


Samsung hangs on there in second place, but it's down more than the market, while Huawei roared up into third place. It's only selling a third as many as Samsung (and a quarter as many as Apple), but it's definitely pushing hard.

Apple had a 30% share. And probably a 90% share of the profits. (To reiterate, these are the western Europe figures.)
apple  tablet  idc  europe 
august 2018 by charlesarthur
Worldwide PC shipments grew for first time in six years during 2Q 2018 • Gartner
<p>"PC shipment growth in the second quarter of 2018 was driven by demand in the business market, which was offset by declining shipments in the consumer segment," said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. "In the consumer space, the fundamental market structure, due to changes on PC user behavior, still remains, and continues to impact market growth. Consumers are using their smartphones for even more daily tasks, such as checking social media, calendaring, banking and shopping, which is reducing the need for a consumer PC.

"In the business segment, PC momentum will weaken in two years when the replacement peak for Windows 10 passes. PC vendors should look for ways to maintain growth in the business market as the Windows 10 upgrade cycle tails off."

With the completion of Lenovo's joint venture with Fujitsu, three out of four PCs were shipped by the top five PC vendors in the second quarter of 2018. With the inclusion of Fujitsu’s PC shipments due to the joint venture (a formation of Joint Venture with Fujitsu), Lenovo was in a virtual tie with HP Inc. for the top spot in the second quarter of 2018 based on global PC shipments. All of the top five PC vendors experienced an increase in worldwide PC shipments in the quarter.

…In the US PC market, the industry returned to growth after six consecutive quarters of shipment declines. In the second quarter of 2018, US PC shipments totaled 14.5 million units, a 1.7% increase from the same period last year. HP Inc. continued to be the market leader in the US, but Dell closed the gap, as Dell's US PC shipments increased 7.2%.

"In the US, business PC demand was particularly strong among the public sector as the second quarter is typically PC buying season among government and education buyers," Ms. Kitagawa said. "Desk-based PC growth was attributed to continued high usage of desk-based PCs in the US public sectors. Mobile PCs grew in the US, but strong Chromebook demand in the education market adversely affected PC growth. Overall, Chromebooks grew 8% in the US, but Chromebooks are not included in the PC market statistics."</p>

OK, it's time to ask: if Chromebook shipments can be high enough to "affect" PC growth, why the hell aren't they included in the stats, and perhaps broken out?
Pc  growth  idc  gartner 
july 2018 by charlesarthur
Augmented reality and virtual reality are on the VRge of growth • IDC
<p>Worldwide shipments of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) headsets were down 30.5% year over year, totaling 1.2m units in the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Augmented and Virtual Reality Headset Tracker. Much of the decline occurred due to the unbundling of screenless VR headsets during the quarter. For much of 2017, vendors bundled these headsets free with the purchase of a high-end smartphone, but that practice largely came to an end by the start of 2018. Despite a poor start to 2018, IDC anticipates the overall market will return to growth over the remainder of the year as more vendors target the commercial AR and VR markets and low-cost standalone VR headsets such as the Oculus Go make their way into stores. IDC forecasts the overall AR and VR headset market to grow to 8.9 million units in 2018, up 6% from the prior year. That growth will continue throughout the forecast period, reaching 65.9 million units by 2022.

<img src="https://www.idc.com/getfile.dyn?sectionId=49541623&containerId=prUS44001618&elementId=54771887&attachmentId=47319063" width="100%" />

"On the VR front, devices such as the Oculus Go seem promising not because Facebook has solved all the issues surrounding VR, but rather because they are helping to set customer expectations for VR headsets in the future," said Jitesh Ubrani senior research analyst for IDC Mobile Device Trackers. “Looking ahead, consumers can expect easier-to-use devices at lower price points. Combine that with a growing lineup of content from game makers, Hollywood studios, and even vocational training institutions, and we see a brighter future for the adoption of virtual reality."

When it comes to augmented reality headsets, many consumers have already had a taste of the technology through screenless viewers such as the Star Wars: Jedi Challenges product from Lenovo. IDC anticipates these types of headsets will lead the market in shipment volumes in the near term.</p>

So they're saying the fall is really down to a different way of counting. I'm not so sure. VR either needs more computing power than people are willing to put into it, or better applications.
Virtualreality  augmentedreality  idc  research 
june 2018 by charlesarthur
New wearables forecast: smartwatches to continue ascendance while wristbands face flat growth • IDC
<p>"The shift in consumer preferences towards smartwatches has been in full swing these past few quarters and we expect that to continue in the coming years," said Jitesh Ubrani senior research analyst for IDC Mobile Device Trackers. "While Apple will undoubtedly lead in this category, what bears watching is how Google and its partners move forward. WearOS (formerly Android Wear) has been somewhat of a laggard recently and despite expected changes to the OS and the release of new silicon, we anticipate Android-based watches to be WearOS' closest competitor due to the high amount of customization available to vendors and the lack of Google services in China."

"Additionally, keep an eye on the other smartwatch platforms, including Fitbit's Fitbit OS, Garmin's Connected IQ, and Samsung's Tizen," said Ramon T. Llamas, research director for IDC's Wearables team. "Fitbit's Versa has had a warm reception in the market, and Garmin's devices have had a steady presence for many quarters. Expect both companies to dive deeper into health and fitness while exploring new areas as well. Samsung, meanwhile, continues to make strides in the commercial space, including health care and wearable workflows."

Smartwatches will evolve to encompass far more features and functionalities than they have today. "The smartwatches of 2022, even 2020, will make today's smartwatches seem quaint," added Llamas. "Health and fitness is a strong start, but when you include cellular connectivity, integration with other Internet of Things (IoT) devices and systems, and how smartwatches can enable greater efficiencies, the smartwatch market is heading for steady growth in the years to come."</p>


Forecasts the total market will grow 8.2% this year, to 124.9m units; smartwatches to be 44% of that (55m), of which Apple will be 20.2m.
smartwatch  wearables  idc 
june 2018 by charlesarthur
Worldwide smartphone volumes will remain down in 2018 before returning to growth in 2019 • IDC
<p>After declining 0.3% in 2017, the worldwide smartphone market is expected to contract again in 2018 before returning to growth in 2019 and beyond. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are forecast to drop 0.2% in 2018 to 1.462bn units, which is down from 1.465bn in 2017 and 1.469bn in 2016. Looking further out, IDC expects the market is to grow roughly 3% annually from 2019 onwards with worldwide shipment volume reaching 1.654bn in 2022 and a five year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%.

The biggest driver of the 2017 downturn was China, which saw its smartphone market decline 4.9% year over year. Tough times are expected to continue in 2018 as IDC forecasts consumption in China to decline another 7.1% before flattening out in 2019. The biggest upside in Asia/Pacific continues to be India with volumes expected to grow 14% and 16% in 2018 and 2019. Chinese OEMs will continue their strategy of selling large volumes of low-end devices by shifting their focus from China to India. So far most have been able to get around the recently introduced India import tariffs by doing final device assembly at local India manufacturing plants. As for components, almost everything is still being sourced from China.</p>


Europe and the US have had their rapid growth; now it's going to be the slow slide to saturation.
smartphone  idc 
may 2018 by charlesarthur
China slowdown drags worldwide smartphone market to 2.9% year-over-year decline • IDC
<p>smartphone vendors shipped a total of 334.3 million units during the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18), resulting in a 2.9% decline when compared to the 344.4 million units shipped in the first quarter of 2017. The China market was the biggest driver of this decline with shipment volumes dipping below 100 million in the quarter, which hasn't happened since the third quarter of 2013.

"Globally, as well as in China, a key bellwether, smartphone consumers are trading up to more premium devices, but there are no longer as many new smartphone converts, resulting in shipments dropping," said Melissa Chau, associate research director with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "When we look at it from a dollar value perspective, the smartphone market is still climbing and will continue to grow over the years to come as consumers are increasingly reliant on these devices for the bulk of their computing needs."

"Despite new flagships from the likes of Samsung and Huawei, along with the first full quarter of iPhone X shipments, consumers looked unwilling to shell out big money for the latest and greatest devices on the market," said Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "The abundance of ultra-high-end flagships with big price tags released over the past 12-18 months has most likely halted the upgrade cycle in the near term. It now looks as if consumers are not willing to shell out this kind of money for a new device that brings minimal upgrades over their current device. Looking forward, more affordable premium devices might be the solution the market needs in the second half of the year to drive shipments back in a positive direction."</p>


That unwillingness only stretched to companies that weren't Apple, it seems. Samsung slightly down, Huawei and Xiaomi very much up. "Others" - those outside the top five - way down.
idc  smartphone 
may 2018 by charlesarthur
Traditional PC market exceeds expectations with flat year-on-year shipment growth • IDC
<p>Worldwide shipments of traditional PCs (desktop, notebook, and workstation) totaled 60.4m units and recorded flat (0.0%) year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. The results exceeded the earlier forecast of a 1.5% decline and marks the third consecutive quarter where traditional PC shipment volume has hovered around flat growth year on year.

Although the numbers are preliminary, the data seems to indicate a continued build up in commercial renewal activity as the main driver for the stabilizing trend. Business uptake of Windows 10 systems appear to be steadily ongoing, benefitting commercially-focused PC OEMs such as HP, Dell, and Lenovo. Demand for premium notebooks in both the consumer and commercial segments have also helped major vendors retain better margins and garner buyer interest. Furthermore, continued focus on gaming systems has injected slight improvement in pockets of the consumer space. Unlike the first quarter of 2017, an improved supply of key notebook components also loosened pressures on both supply and pricing, leading to some recovery of share for the smaller vendors.</p>


The <a href="https://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3871149">Gartner data</a> is gloomier - a fall of 1.4%, though to a higher total of 61.69m units. The confusing thing is that Gartner excludes Chromebooks, but IDC includes them; but Chromebook sales would probably explain how IDC sees sales as static while Gartner sees them falling.

Either way, the PC market is a long way down; in 1Q 2012 IDC's figures were showed shipments of 88m. Somewhere, 28m sales got lost.
idc  gartner  pc  chromebook 
april 2018 by charlesarthur
Demand for augmented reality/virtual reality headsets expected to rebound in 2018 • IDC
<p>Worldwide shipments for augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) headsets will grow to 68.9m units in 2022 with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 52.5%, according to the latest forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Augmented and Virtual Reality Headset Tracker. Despite the weakness the market experienced in 2017, IDC anticipates a return to growth in 2018 with total combined AR/VR volumes reaching 12.4m units, marking a year-over-year increase of 48.5% as new vendors, new use cases, and new business models emerge.

The worldwide AR/VR headset market retreated in 2017 primarily due to a decline in shipments of screenless VR viewers. Previous champions of this form factor stopped bundling these headsets with smartphones and consumers have shown little interest in purchasing such headsets separately. While the screenless VR category is waning, Lenovo's successful fourth quarter launch of the Jedi Challenges Mirage headset—a screenless viewer for AR—showed the form factor may still have legs if paired with the right content. Other new product launches during the quarter included the first Windows Mixed Reality VR tethered headsets with entries from Acer, ASUS, Dell, Fujitsu, HP, Lenovo, and Samsung.

"There has been a maturation of content and delivery as top-tier content providers enter the AR and VR space," said Jitesh Ubrani senior research analyst for IDC Mobile Device Trackers. "Meanwhile, on the hardware side, numerous vendors are experimenting with new financing options and different revenue models to make the headsets, along with the accompanying hardware and software, more accessible to consumers and enterprises alike."</p>


Not mentioned anywhere in this release: what the actual uses, demand and markets are that will drive this growth. I just don't see it.
idc  augmentedreality  virtualreality 
march 2018 by charlesarthur
Despite pockets of growth the personal computing device market is expected to decline at a -2% CAGR through 2021 • IDC
<p>Traditional PC shipments are expected to drop from 260.2m units in 2016 to 248.1m in 2021 units, resulting in a five-year CAGR [compound annual growth rate] of -0.9%. However, when detachable tablets such as the Microsoft Surface Pro are added in, the five-year CAGR improves to +0.3%. Out of the five major product categories in the PCD market, desktops and slates will continue to decline over the duration of the forecast, while detachable tablets, workstations, and notebook PCs will show signs of volume improvement.

Although the 0.3% CAGR is positive news, examining the market along geographic lines shows the PCD market will continue to face challenges in growing both volume as well as margins. With over 69% of shipments in emerging markets going toward traditional notebooks and slate tablets in 2021, price points remain very sensitive in countries once pegged as ripe for growth. Conversely, while convertibles and ultraslim notebooks have found increased favor in developed markets, China will be the only developing market among the top 10 markets for these devices in 2021.

"Detachable tablets are expected to see double-digit growth from 2018 through 2021," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC's Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. "Windows-based detachables already count for close to 50% of the volume in this category and this isn't expected to change much over the duration of the forecast. Apple's iPad Pro lineup will remain at 30-35% of the category with the remainder going to Google-based devices. It is clear this is a category that has the interest and now investments from both PC and smartphone OEMs, but when looking at the overall PCD market it accounts for just 5% of volume in 2017, growing to 9.4% in 2021."</p>
idc  forecast  pc 
november 2017 by charlesarthur
Traditional PC market further stabilizes as top companies consolidate share • IDC
<p>Worldwide shipments of traditional PCs (desktop, notebook, workstation) totaled 67.2m units in the third quarter of 2017 (3Q17), which translates into a slight year-over-year decline of 0.5%, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. The results were better than projections of a 1.4% decline, and further demonstrate the trend of market stabilization in recent quarters. Improvement in emerging markets as well as back-to-school promotions helped boost results.

The component shortages of recent quarters have continued to improve and did not factor as a significant hindrance to production volumes. Nonetheless, higher component prices and inventory in some markets meant limited shipments and validated IDC assumptions about a muted third quarter. Not surprisingly, competitive pressures further cemented the dominance of the top five PC companies, which accounted for nearly 75% of the total traditional PC market…

…"The U.S. traditional PC market exhibited lower overall growth, contracting 3.4% in 3Q17," said Neha Mahajan, senior. research analyst, Devices & Displays. "Despite the overall contraction, Chromebooks remain a source of optimism as the category gains momentum in sectors outside education, especially in retail and financial services."</p>


<a href="http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3814066">Gartner says the decline was worse</a> - it puts the decline at 3.6% - but has almost exactly the same shipment figure for the quarter, at 67.0m. Gartner doesn't include Chromebooks in its figures, so it's a little hard to see the source of IDC's enthusiasm; IDC doesn't show Acer (which ships a lot of Chromebooks) as outselling Apple.

Also of note: Gartner says Lenovo's PC shipments have declined year-on-year in eight of the past 10 quarters. IDDC puts HP ahead of Lenovo all of this year.

Even so, this looks like the market bottoming out. Though it always then finds a new bottom.
idc  gartner  pc  lenovo 
october 2017 by charlesarthur
Smartphone growth expected to remain positive as shipments forecast to grow to 1.7 billion in 2021 • IDC
<p>According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to maintain positive growth through 2021. IDC expects shipments to grow from 1.47 billion in 2016 to just over 1.7 billion in 2021. In 2016, the market experienced its first-ever single-digit growth year with shipments up just 2.5% over 2015.

IDC believes the combination of new user demand as well as a somewhat stagnant 2-year replacement cycle will be enough to keep the market at a 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3%.

"The big inflection point that everyone is watching for is when the smartphone market experiences its first year-over-year decline," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers.</p>


Even this looks a bit optimistic if the South American economies don't get their act together.
idc  smartphones 
august 2017 by charlesarthur
Tablet market decline slows in second quarter as low-cost tablets offer temporary relief • IDC
<p>Once touted as the savior of the market, detachable tablets also declined in the second quarter as consumers waited in anticipation of product refreshes from high-profile vendors like Apple and Microsoft. However, with new product launches towards the end of the second quarter, the detachable market is expected to maintain a stronger position in the second half of the year.

"There's been a resetting of expectations for detachables as competing convertible notebooks offered a convincing and familiar computing experience for many," said Jitesh Ubrani, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. "To date, the 2-in-1 market was bifurcated as Apple and Microsoft led with detachables while the PC vendors led with convertibles. Though that is slowly changing as smartphone vendors and traditional PC vendors begin to offer compelling alternatives, the pace has been rather slow as Surface and iPad Pro still dominate shelf space and mindshare."

Market turmoil aside, three of the top five vendors managed to increase share and grow on an annual basis with price being the largest driving factor. However, these gains may be temporary as the replacement cycle of tablets is still long (closer to traditional PCs rather than smartphones) and first-time buyers have become a rare commodity. With downward pressure on pricing from big name brands, "whitebox" tablet vendors and smaller brands are starting to turn their attention away from tablets and IDC expects this trend to continue.</p>

Apple, Huawei and Amazon all saw growth; total market shrank by 3.4%. Samsung is stuck in the middle - isn't cheap, brand isn't strong enough. It stayed steady, but it hasn't done anything significant in the tablet market for some time. Strategy Analytics <a href="https://www.strategyanalytics.com/strategy-analytics/news/strategy-analytics-press-releases/strategy-analytics-press-release/2017/08/03/can-industry-players-duplicate-apple-and-huawei-success-2017">reckons Samsung's sales declined</a>.

Next big question: will Apple put OLED in tablets? Or is that an expense too far?
apple  idc  tablets 
august 2017 by charlesarthur
Smartphone volumes decline slightly in Q2 2017 amid anticipation of strong second half product launches • IDC
IDC, unlike Counterpoint (which reckoned there was 6% growth), thinks smartphone volumes declined by 1.3% to 341.6m in Q2:
<p>While the smartphone industry contracted slightly in the second quarter, it is worth noting that the leading vendors all saw positive shipment growth. Samsung and Apple both held shares relatively constant from the second quarter a year ago, while the other three vendors rounding out the top 5 – Huawei, OPPO, and Xiaomi – all grew shares. The one change in terms of ranking within the top 5 was Xiaomi slightly outpacing vivo, but not by much.

"In my opinion, the biggest change in the second quarter is the size of the contraction among the 'Others' outside of the top 5 OEMs," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. "It's no secret that the smartphone market is a very challenging segment for companies to maintain or grow share, especially as already low average selling prices declined by another 4.3% in 2016. The smaller, more localized vendors will continue to struggle, especially as the leading volume drivers build out their portfolio into new markets and price segments."

As we look toward the second half of 2017, IDC expects to see two quarters of positive year-over-year growth, leaving 2017 as a rebound year. Samsung is riding momentum from the Galaxy S8 products, with the presumed August announcement of the Note 8 right around the corner. In parallel, anticipation continues to build for the next round of iPhones that the industry expects Apple to announce in September. Outside of these two industry leaders, the companies to watch will continue to be the next three to five OEMs and how they navigate to position themselves in growing markets.</p>


"Others" (not Samsung, Apple, Huawei, OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi) shrank by 16%. This is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/25/toshiba-woes-pc-sale-slump-squeeze-tech-firms">starting to look like the same thing as the PC market</a>.
smartphone  idc  others 
august 2017 by charlesarthur
Traditional PC market fares slightly better than expectations as component shortage pressures ease • IDC
<p>Worldwide shipments of traditional PCs (desktop, notebook, workstation) totaled 60.5 million units in the second quarter of 2017 (2Q17), posting a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. The results tilted just above the previous forecast that called for a decline of 3.9%, and hewed to the expectation that unlike past seasonal patterns of significant positive sequential growth, second quarter volume showed only a modest uptick from the first quarter.

Whereas one factor affecting shipments during the past several quarters was an inventory buildup caused by shortages of key components such as SSD (Solid State Drive), the second quarter operated under less harsh constraints, though in some instances component shortages still played a role in driving shipment dynamics. Moreover, as expected, the increased bill of materials (BOM) cost due to the shortage also began to impact the final price of systems, which was also factored into IDC's original assumption of inhibiting shipments.

From a geographic perspective, mature markets generally outperformed emerging markets, with Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) and Latin America in particular showing weakness, though Latin America did outperform IDC's original forecast. The U.S. posted just a slight decline but otherwise also pulled ahead of forecast in part due to Chromebook activity. Japan again posted positive growth, in part against the backdrop of tough market conditions in 2015 through the first half of 2016.

"Amid some unevenness in market trends across the regions, the global PC market has continued to trend toward stabilization," said Jay Chou, research manager, IDC Worldwide Personal Computing Device Tracker.</p>

I love how it's "trending toward stabilisation" as the sales keep dropping year-on-year. Apple is now 4th biggest vendor worldwide (though less than half as large as Dell). Acer has dropped out of the top five.

<a href="http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3759964">Gartner's view</a> is even gloomier, with a 4.3% fall, though its total is slightly higher - 61.1m. But it says Chromebook sales grew 38% in 2016 - miles ahead of the PC market. But "not a PC replacement yet", according to Gartner's analysts.
idc  pc 
july 2017 by charlesarthur
Coming off a slow 2016, smartphone shipment volume expected to recover in 2017 and gain momentum into 2018 • IDC
<p>According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to rebound slightly in 2017 with expected growth of 3.0% over the previous year. In 2016, year-over-year growth was 2.5%, marking the lowest growth the industry has ever experienced. With several major devices entering the market this year, IDC anticipates shipment volumes will grow to 1.52 billion in 2017. And IDC expects this momentum to carry into 2018, when smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 4.5% year over year, fueled by improved economic conditions in many emerging markets and a full year of new iPhone shipments from Apple.</p>


It's kinda "meh". Forecast total sales for 2017: 1.5bn. Forecast total sales for 2021: 1.74bn. That's just 3.4% compound; the smartphone world caught fire, and now we have embers. (Also note that IDC used to be very optimistic about PC sales; then smartphones came along. Never rule out the unexpected.)
smartphone  idc 
may 2017 by charlesarthur
Worldwide tablet shipments decline 8.5% in the first quarter as the slow migration from slates to detachables continues • IDC
<p>The tablet market is comprised of two different product categories, which are headed in very different directions as noted by IDC in the past. Devices offering a first-party keyboard, which IDC refers to as detachable tablets, continue to grow for the most part. Many of these devices have quickly grown to resemble products that IDC refers to as traditional notebook PCs or laptops. The other product category is slate tablets (those lacking this keyboard option), which saw shipments peak in 2014 and is now in a steep decline that IDC believes will continue throughout the forecast period…

…Fast forward to 1Q17 and traditional PCs have returned to growth, albeit relatively flat growth, for the first time since 1Q12.

"A long-term threat to the overall PC market lies in how the market ultimately settles on the detachable versus convertible debate," said Linn Huang, research director, Devices & Displays at IDC. "To date, detachable shipments have dwarfed those of convertibles, but growth of the former has slowed a bit. In IDC's 2017 U.S. Consumer PCD Survey, fielded over the previous two months, detachable owners held slightly more favorable attitudes towards their detachables than convertible owners did for their convertibles. However, owners of both were far more likely to recommend a convertible over a detachable."</p>


"Flat growth" is a lovely phrase for "dead". IDC doesn't include "convertibles" in its tablet segment; they're PCs which can be tablet-y (eg Lenovo's Yoga). IDC says Apple, whose share is settling down to about 25% of the whole tablet segment, is top of the "detachable" market with the iPad Pro. (I love the 9.7in version - perfect weight and portability.) Samsung meanwhile is backing into the Windows PC market through the same route.

Android slates are the low-price, zero-profit (unsustainable) end; Strategy Analytics <a href="https://www.strategyanalytics.com/access-services/devices/tablets/tablets/reports/report-detail/preliminary-global-tablet-shipments-and-market-share-q1-2017-040517">says</a> Windows was 15% of tablet shipments, ie 6.3m units on its larger measure of 42.1m for the market. IDC puts the market at 36.2m units.
idc  tablet  windows  apple 
may 2017 by charlesarthur
Traditional PC market was up slightly, recording its first growth in five years as HP recovered the top position • IDC
<p>Worldwide shipments of traditional PCs (desktop, notebook, workstation) totaled 60.3 million units in the first quarter of 2017 (1Q17), posting year-over-year growth of 0.6%, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. The previous forecast had expected shipments to decline 1.8% in the quarter. And, while the 0.6% growth was arguably flat, the result nonetheless represented the first foray back into positive territory since Q1 2012, when many users still considered PCs their first computing device.

Like the second half of 2016, some of the same forces continue to shape the market. Tight supplies of key components such as NAND and DRAM are affecting inventory dynamics and led a number of vendors to boost shipments to lock in supply ahead of further cost increases. In addition, the market continued along a path of stabilization that began in the latter half of last year, especially as more commercial projects moved out of pilot mode and began shipments in earnest…

…"The traditional PC market has been through a tough phase, with competition from tablets and smartphones as well as lengthening lifecycles pushing PC shipments down roughly 30% from a peak in 2011," said Jay Chou, research manager, IDC PCD Tracker. "Nevertheless, users have generally delayed PC replacements rather than giving up PCs for other devices. The commercial market is beginning a replacement cycle that should drive growth throughout the forecast. Consumer demand will remain under pressure, although growth in segments like PC Gaming as well as rising saturation of tablets and smartphones will move the consumer market toward stabilization as well."</p>


Let's be clear: it's 0.6% growth officially, but it would have been down 1.1% using last year's numbers - which IDC quietly revised down. (Neither IDC or Gartner ever reveals in these press releases when they tweak their year-ago numbers.) Arguably, that means this year's 0.6% growth could be next year's 1% fall.

Whatever; the PC market isn't in freefall any more, though <a href="http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3676117">Gartner's numbers suggest a 2.4% fall</a> (it revised 1Q 16 down by 1m, so that fall is ever bigger than reported). It is however settling into one where the business market has taken over again.
pc  idc  gartner 
april 2017 by charlesarthur
Wearables as a platform, new 2017 and 2018 Apple Watch sales estimates, deep dive into 4q16 wearables market • Above Avalon members
From Neil Cybart's paid-for daily news analysis of things Apple-y and related, in which he goes to town on <a href="http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS42342317">IDC's estimates for the wearables market (excluding AirPods) in 4Q 2016</a>:
<p>I have significant issues with IDC's report and commentary. 

For example: 
• Who are these low-cost wearables competitors in the U.S. eating Fitbit's market share in 2H16? IDC doesn't name them. In reality, Fitbit's troubles are increasingly found with consumers embracing higher-priced wearables containing additional utility. This is why Fitbit is running upmarket as fast as they can.

• Xiaomi is using a low-cost wearables strategy? The company is selling $15 plastic step and sleep trackers. This is like saying a phone company selling a $20 pay as you go phone with no apps is using a low-cost smartphone strategy. Xiaomi should not be included in the same discussion as Apple Watch or Fitbit. 

• While Apple Watch sales hit a record during 4Q16, unit sales were up 20% year-over-year. Calling this a "magnificent success" seems a bit hyperbolic, as if the Watch was a complete flop in 4Q15. 

• We discussed Garmin's 4Q16 results a few weeks ago. I don't know how IDC reached their estimate of Garmin selling 2.1M wearables at an ASP of $258 during 4Q16. Even if we assumed every dollar found in Garmin's Fitness and Outdoors segments was related to wearables, which wasn't the case, Garmin would have sold at most 1.4M to 1.5M wearables. In reality, Garmin likely sold less than 1M wearables. In addition, IDC says Garmin customers moved to higher-end devices that are able to do more than fitness tracking - this is the exact opposite of IDC's main thesis for the wearables market. 

• IDC positions cellular smartwatches as a key to smartwatch sales success. Yet Samsung is the only company shipping cellular smartwatches at volume and they aren't selling well compared to Apple Watch. </p>


In particular, IDC only quoting Xiaomi's unit sales figures, and not revenue, seems unhelpful for understanding what's going on. (And this is why you should <a href="http://www.aboveavalon.com/membership/">subscribe to the Above Avalon newsletter</a>, to get information like this.)
wearable  apple  idc 
march 2017 by charlesarthur
China Oceanwide and IDG Capital announce agreement to acquire IDG • Business Wire
<p>China Oceanwide is a privately held, multi-billion dollar international conglomerate founded by Chairman Zhiqiang Lu. Headquartered in Beijing, China Oceanwide's well-established and diversified businesses include operations in financial services, real estate assets, media, technology and strategic investment, with more than 12,000 employees globally.

IDG Capital is an independently operated investment management partnership, with IDG as one of many limited partners. Formed in 1993 as China’s first technology venture investment firm, IDG Capital was ranked China’s top VC firm for 2016 by Zero2IPO Group.

IDG will continue to be headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts and managed by its current team. Kirk Campbell will continue as President and CEO of IDC, and Michael Friedenberg will continue as CEO of IDG Communications. A new board of directors will be appointed after the close of the transaction.</p>


Noted here because IDG owns IDC, the analysis company. China's interest in buying up useful stuff is quite noticeable - subtle, but noticeable. The purchase has been approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, in pretty much the last act by the Obama administration.
china  idc 
january 2017 by charlesarthur
Apple Watch sales to consumers set record in holiday week, says Apple's Cook • Reuters
Julia Love:
<p>Sales of the Apple Watch to consumers set a record during the first week of holiday shopping, and the current quarter is on track to be the best ever for the product, Apple chief executive Tim Cook told Reuters.

Responding to an email from Reuters, Cook said the gadget's sell-through - a measure of how many units are sold to consumers, rather than simply stocked on retailers' shelves - reached a new high.

Cook's comments followed a report on Monday from technology research firm IDC estimating that the tech giant sold 1.1 million units of the Apple Watch during the third quarter of 2016, down 71% from the year-ago quarter. The comments offer a glimpse of the gadget's performance during the holiday quarter, which is typically Apple's strongest.</p>


IDC's estimate (it has to be an estimate) looks low - based on revenue, Apple probably sold between 2m and 2.5m.
apple  applewatch  idc 
december 2016 by charlesarthur
4G smartphones to surpass 1 billion mark in shipments for 2016 as emerging markets play catch up • IDC
<p>Worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.45 billion units with a year-over-year growth rate of 0.6% in 2016 according to the latest forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. Although growth remains positive, it is down significantly from the 10.4% growth in 2015.

However, 4G smartphones are still expected to show double-digit uptake at 21.3% year-over-year growth globally for 2016, reaching 1.17 billion units, up from 967 million in 2015. Much of this growth is coming from emerging markets (Asia/Pacific excluding Japan, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, and Middle East and Africa), where only 61% of 2015 smartphone shipments were 4G-enabled compared to IDC's 2016 projection of 77%. Mature markets (USA, Canada, Japan, and Western Europe) are further along the 4G adoption curve with 85% in 2015 and a projected 94% in 2016, respectively.</p>


Stagnant growth. Not happening in less developed countries anything like as fast as it did before.
smarphone  idc 
november 2016 by charlesarthur
Worldwide smartphone shipments up 1.0% year over year in third quarter despite Galaxy Note 7 recall • IDC
<p>"Samsung's market dominance in the third quarter was unchallenged in the short term even with this high-profile Galaxy Note 7 recall, but the longer term impact on the Samsung brand remains to be seen. If the first recall was a stumble for Samsung, the second recall of replacement devices face-planted the Note series," said Melissa Chau, associate research director, Mobile Devices. "In a market that is otherwise maturing, Christmas has come early for vendors looking to capitalize with large-screened flagship alternatives like the Apple iPhone 7 Plus and Google Pixel."

"With Samsung’s Note 7 finally laid to rest, both Samsung and other vendors will need to invest both time and money into properly testing devices to avoid a future incident of this proportion," said Anthony Scarsella, research manager, Mobile Phones. "The recall of the Note 7 represents an industry-wide wake-up call that will undoubtedly lead to a more vigorous testing and certification process moving forward."

The top five vendors remain unchanged from last quarter despite double- and triple-digit growth from the leading Chinese vendors Huawei, OPPO, and Vivo. While Samsung and Apple continue to challenge each other at the top, these upcoming players have delivered value-packed devices that offer consumers top-shelf features at a fraction of the cost compared to the market leaders.</p>


Numbers don't include the shipped and recalled/unrecalled Note 7s. Huawei is coming up in Apple's rear-view mirror - but OPPO and vivo are coming up behind it too. (Together, those two are bigger than Apple in this quarter.)
idc  smartphone 
october 2016 by charlesarthur
Consumer ultraslim and detachable uptake revitalizes PC and tablet market in western Europe • IDC
<p>Chromebooks are gaining momentum and experiencing high growth, especially in the Nordics. As we are in the Nordics' back-to-school season, many vendors pushed shipments in 2016Q2, in particular targeting the education sector in the region, where the adoption of this form factor is taking off. Volumes are still low, as Chromebook are in early adoption stage among schools, but the growth potential is promising, especially in Sweden (59.7% YoY increase in 2016Q2).

Similarly to ultraslims, detachables are experiencing interesting growth in Western Europe, as shipments rose from 0.5m in 2015Q2 to 1.6m units in 2016Q2, in contrast with the 6.0% decline of the tablet market. Detachables performed strongly across all Western Europe, posting triple-digit growth in all countries. Surface continued to be the most widely adopted detachable in the commercial segment, while iPad Pro reached first position in the consumer segment. Detachables posted strong growth in both consumer and commercial, showing that interest in this form factor continues to be on the rise in both segments. Despite the rapid growth in both segments, the drivers behind their performance differ between them.

"The interest in detachables in the commercial segment is generated by the number of premium devices available in the market and the increasing number of use cases in which detachables emerge as the optimal solution. While deployments are not massive, since detachables are mainly adopted either to address specific vertical needs or by top executive ranks, the number of companies adopting them is clearly picking up as some of the classic concerns such as device performance are being tackled by this wave of new releases" said Daniel Gonçalves, research analyst, IDC EMEA Personal Computing. "On the other hand the penetration of detachables in the consumer segment is driven by many local vendors and white brands moving away from the already saturated slate space dominated by Android. These players keep targeting market share in the entry-level space, and now they also supply 9- or 10-inch screen size, Windows-based devices with basic features and keyboard capabilities."</p>


IDC is taking the "PC plus tablet" market as the proxy for everything that's going on - though at 17.2m (in western Europe) that still saw a 3.4% year-on-year fall, with tablets down by 6% while PCs fell by 1.6%.
idc  pc  tablet 
august 2016 by charlesarthur
Wearables shipments will grow nearly 30% this year: IDC • Twice
John Laposky:
<p>Smart watches: The category is expected to increase from 41% of total wearables shipments in 2016 to 52.1% in 2020. However, not all watches are the same. While smart watches are in the spotlight today, future growth will come from basic watches that provide some sort of fitness/sleep tracking while not being sophisticated enough to run third-party applications on the watch itself. Traditional fashion brands like Fossil and health/fitness companies like Fitbit and Withings will help this segment grow.</p>


That's along with categories like wristbands, eyewear, clothing and "others". Notable how they aren't making specific forecasts for Apple v Android in this space.
wearable  idc 
june 2016 by charlesarthur
Worldwide smartphone growth forecast to slow to 3.1% in 2016 as focus shifts to device lifecycles • IDC
<p>According to a forecast update from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are expected to grow 3.1% in 2016, which is a substantial slowdown from the 10.5% growth in 2015 and 27.8% in 2014. Shipments are expected to hit 1.48 billion in 2016 and grow to 1.84 billion in 2020. The new forecast is 2.6 percentage points lower than IDC's previous forecast for 2016 on the basis of the continued slowdown in mature markets and China.

IDC expects large markets like the United States, Western Europe, and China to see low single digit growth rates in 2016 while Japan and Canada are expected to contract by 6.4% and 6.9%, respectively. In all these markets, smartphone buying behavior is changing in many ways. In operator-driven markets the transition away from two year subsidized contracts toward monthly installment plans are slowly taking place. Meanwhile, many retail heavy markets are seeing a surge in the eTailer channel, better known as online marketplaces.

"Consumers everywhere are getting savvy about how and where they buy their smartphones, and this is opening up new doors for OEMs and causing some traditional channels to lose some control of the hardware flow," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Smartphones sold into eTailer channels grew 65% in 2015 and are expected to account for roughly 12% of smartphone shipments in 2016, up from just 4% in 2013. Consumers are having more say over which brands they want and at the same time able to bargain shop."</p>


Phablets will do well, Windows Phone won't, iPhones to see slight drop from 232m in 2015 to 227m in 2016, BlackBerry to.. fade to black, probably.
smartphones  idc 
june 2016 by charlesarthur
Indian smartphone shipments declined for the second consecutive quarter in Q1 2016 • IDC
<p>According to the International Data Corporation's (IDC) Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, 23.5m units of smartphones were shipped in India in Q1 2016 registering 5.2% growth over the same period last year. However, smartphone shipments shrank by 8.2% over Q4 2015, dipping consecutively for two quarters.

According to Karthik J, Senior Market Analyst, Client Devices, “The first quarter of the year is usually expected to be slow after the festive season in the last quarter of the year. However, the contraction in Q1 2016 is mainly propelled by the decline in shipments from all the Top 5 smartphone vendors of previous quarter. Shipments of key Indian vendors Micromax, Intex and Lava put together dropped 20.4% sequentially as they struggled to push their inventories into the market.” On the other hand, new entrants like Reliance Jio grew sharply over previous quarter as they prepare before the official launch.</p>


India and China have about the same population; the Indian smartphone market is about a quarter the size of China's, which has already peaked.
india  idc 
may 2016 by charlesarthur
Worldwide PC shipments declined 9.6% in 1Q 2016 » Gartner
<p>Worldwide PC shipments totaled 64.8m units in the first quarter of 2016, a 9.6% decline from the first quarter of 2015, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. This was the sixth consecutive quarter of PC shipment declines, and the first time since 2007 that shipment volume fell below 65m units.

"The deterioration of local currencies against the U.S. dollar continued to play a major role in PC shipment declines. Our early results also show there was an inventory buildup from holiday sales in the fourth quarter of 2015," said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner.

"All major regions showed year-over-year shipment declines, with Latin America showing the steepest drop, where PC shipments declined 32.4%. The Latin American PC market was intensely impacted by Brazil, where the problematic economy and political instability adversely affected the market, Ms. Kitagawa said. "The ongoing decline in U.S. PC shipments showed that the installed base is still shrinking, a factor that played across developed economies. Low oil prices drove economic contraction in Latin America and Russia, changing them from drivers of growth to market laggards."

PCs are not being adopted in new households as they were in the past, especially in emerging markets. In these markets, smartphones are the priority. In the business segment, Gartner analysts said the Windows 10 refresh is expected to start toward the end of 2016.</p>


IDC <a href="http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS41176916">puts the figure even lower</a>, at 60.6m units. Basically, it's the lowest figure since 2006. Never heard oil prices blamed for PC sales before.
pc  idc  gartner 
april 2016 by charlesarthur
Detachable tablets set to grow from 8% of tablet market in 2015 to 30% in 2020 » IDC
<p>Worldwide tablet shipments will drop to 195m units in 2016, down -5.9% from 2015, according to a new International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker forecast. Looking beyond 2016, IDC expects the overall market to return to positive growth, albeit single digit, driven by growing demand for detachable devices. This somewhat hybrid category that brings together slate tablets and PCs is expected to grow from 16.6m shipments in 2015 to 63.8m in 2020.

"Beyond the growing demand for detachable devices, we're also witnessing an increase in competition within this segment that will help drive design, innovation, and a decline in average prices," said Jean Philippe Bouchard, Research Director, Tablets. "At the latest Mobile World Congress, we saw new entrants, like Alcatel and Huawei, coming from the mobile space and expanding their portfolio to address the demand for detachables. Everyone in the industry recognizes that traditional personal computers like desktops and notebooks will potentially be replaced by detachables in the coming years and this is why we will see a lot of new products being introduced this year."

The change from slate form factor to detachables will bring along two other changes to the tablet industry. First, devices with larger screen sizes (9" and above) will experience growth throughout the forecast while those under 9inches will decline. And second, Microsoft-based devices will begin taking share from the other platforms, most notably Android.</p>


This "detachable" v "slate" v "you can get an extra keyboard as an add-on" is confusing as hell, and IDC isn't making it any clearer. Nowhere in this release, or anywhere on IDC's site that I've seen, is there a definition of what makes a "detachable". Is the Surface Pro? The Surface Book? The iPad Pro? An iPad to which you add a Logitech keyboard?
tablet  idc 
march 2016 by charlesarthur
Worldwide PC shipments will continue to decline into 2016 as the short-term outlook softens » IDC
<p>"Despite the substantial shift in spending and usage models from PCs toward tablets and phones in recent years, very few people are giving up on their PC – they are just making it last longer," said Loren Loverde , Vice President, Worldwide Tracker Forecasting and PC research. "The free upgrade to Windows 10 enables some users to postpone an upgrade a little, but not indefinitely. Some consumers will use a free OS upgrade to delay a new PC purchase and test the transition to Windows 10. However, the experience of those customers may serve to highlight what they are missing by stretching the life of an older PC, and we expect they will ultimately purchase a new device. As detachable systems become more compelling (including attractive new Wintel designs), some volume will go to detachable tablets rather than traditional PC form factors, which will cut into the PC growth rate, but still supports the PC vendors and ecosystem."

While detachable tablets are expected to grow quickly, they are still a relatively small part of the market. As a reference, combining detachable tablets with PCs would boost growth by roughly 3 percentage points – this would result in a trend of declining volume from 2012 to 2015, followed by about 1% growth in 2016 and slightly higher gains in subsequent years.</p>


The balance is shifting toward commercial buyers again. But the forecast is for a 10% drop compared to 2014, to about 277m shipped (excluding Surface Pro and similar).
pc  idc  forecast 
december 2015 by charlesarthur
Worldwide smartphone market will see the first single-digit growth year on record » IDC
<p>According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC ) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker , 2015 will be the first full year of single-digit worldwide smartphone growth. IDC predicts worldwide smartphone shipments will grow 9.8% in 2015 to a total of 1.43bn units. IDC updated its previous forecast to reflect slowing growth in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin America, and Western Europe. The slower growth is expected to intensify slightly over the 2015-2019 forecast period and is largely attributed to lower shipment forecasts for Windows Phone as well as "alternative platforms" (phones running operating systems other than Android, iOS, and Windows Phone)…

…"With the smartphone market finally slowing to single-digit growth, maintaining momentum will depend on several factors," said Ryan Reith , program director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "The main driver has been and will continue to be the success of low-cost smartphones in emerging markets. This, in turn, will depend on capturing value-oriented first-time smartphone buyers as well as replacement buyers. We believe that, in a number of high-growth markets, replacement cycles will be less than the typical two-year rate, mainly because the components that comprise a sub-$100 smartphone simply do not have the ability to survive two years. Offering products that appeal to both types of buyers at a suitable price point will be crucial to maintaining growth and vendor success."

"As shipment volumes continue to slow across many markets, consumers will be enticed by both affordable high-value handsets as well as various financing options on pricier models," said Anthony Scarsella , Research Manager with IDC's Mobile Phones team.</p>


Say it again: "the components that comprise a sub-$100 smartphone simply do not have the ability to survive two years".
idc  smartphones 
december 2015 by charlesarthur
PC shipments remain depressed by volatile currencies, inventory, and OS transition in the third quarter, although 2016 should fare better » IDC
<p>Worldwide PC shipments totaled nearly 71.0m units in the third quarter of 2015 (3Q15), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. This volume represented a year-on-year decline of -10.8% – slightly worse than projections for a decline of -9.2%.

The lackluster volume of PC shipments was consistent with expectations that the third quarter would face challenging financial conditions and be a transition period. Across many regions, the channel remained focused on clearing Windows 8 inventory before a more complete portfolio of models incorporating Windows 10 and Intel Skylake processors comes on the scene. Vendors and channels were also working to limit price swings in the face of changes in currency exchange rates. Though easing a bit, currency devaluation continued to inhibit PC shipments in the third quarter.

While Windows 10 has generally received favorable reviews and raised consumer interest in PCs, many users opted to upgrade existing PCs rather than purchase new hardware…

…the top four vendors performed much better than the rest of the market. Collectively, the top 4 vendors saw shipments fall by -4.5% from a year ago compared to a decline of almost -20% for the rest of the market.</p>


2016 could hardly do worse. PC market now down 26% from the same period in 2011, when it peaked.
idc  pc 
october 2015 by charlesarthur
Worldwide tablet shipments expected to decline -8.0% in 2015 while 2-in-1 devices pick up momentum, growing 86.5% » IDC
According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker, tablet shipments, inclusive of 2-in-1 devices, are expected to decline -8.0% in 2015, representing a notable slowdown from IDC's previous forecast of -3.8%. Shipments are now expected to reach 212 million with the vast majority being pure slate tablets.

The overall trajectory of the tablet market has not changed significantly over the past year and a half, but the 2-in-1 segment, also referred to as detachables, is starting to gain traction. While the 2-in-1 form factor is not new, OEMs are getting more serious about this market and as a result IDC expects the 2-in-1 segment to grow 86.5% year over year in 2015 with 14.7 million units shipped. Although this volume is far below that of the more affordable slate tablet segment, IDC believes these devices appeal to an audience seeking an alternative to pure tablets with smaller screens.


Basically, Windows picks up from interest in 2-in-1 devices. But it remains niche. (Gartner rolls 2-in-1s into its PC category; IDC calls them "tablets".) IDC expects an "iPad Pro" and that Apple will still be the largest vendor in 2019.
tablet  idc 
august 2015 by charlesarthur
PC shipments expected to shrink through 2016 as currency devaluations and inventory constraints worsens outlook » IDC
Worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall by -8.7% in 2015 and not stabilize until 2017, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. The latest forecast has growth declining through 2016 – which will make five years of declining shipments. Growth should resume in 2017, led by the commercial market, while consumer volume continues a small decline through the end of the forecast in 2019.

Although IDC had expected the second quarter of 2015 to be a transition period as vendors prepare for Windows 10 systems in the second half of the year, final results nonetheless shrank even more than expected due to a stubbornly large inventory of notebooks from prior quarters and severe constraints posed by the decline of major currencies relative to the US Dollar.


Hey ho. This is really going to put the squeeze on the smaller players.
idc  pc  forecast 
august 2015 by charlesarthur
Global smartphone growth expected to slow to 11.3% in 2015 as market penetration increases in top markets » IDC
The research company says:
smartphone shipments are expected to grow 11.3% in 2015, which is down from 27.6% in 2014. This is on par with IDC's previous smartphone forecast of 11.8% growth in 2015. While overall smartphone growth will continue to slow, many markets will experience robust growth in 2015 and beyond, and worldwide shipment volumes are forecast to reach 1.9bn units annually by 2019.

IDC expects 2015 to bring two notable milestones. First, IDC projects this to be the first year in which China's smartphone growth, forecast to be 2.5% in 2015, will be slower than the worldwide market. Second, and somewhat related to the China forecast, Android smartphone growth is also expected to be slower than the worldwide market at 8.5% in 2015. IDC believes both trends will persist throughout the forecast period, which now goes to 2019.


China smartphone shipments shrank year-on-year in the first quarter of 2015, IDC says, claiming saturation. This doesn't quite make sense though. There are hundreds of millions of people in China, and elsewhere, without a smartphone. The block on growth is down to price, and perceived need: if you can't get data, what's the use?
smartphone  world  idc 
may 2015 by charlesarthur
PC shipments beat expectations despite weak currencies and product transitions » IDC
Worldwide PC shipments totalled 68.5m units in the first quarter of 2015 (1Q15), a year-on-year decline of -6.7%, and slightly ahead of previous projections, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

Following a strong second half of 2014, which benefitted from the tailwind of the Windows XP refresh and pockets of price-driven consumer activity, the Q1 market faced multiple headwinds – including inventory build-up of Windows Bing based notebooks, commercial slow down following the XP refresh and constrained demand in many regions due to currency fluctuations and unfavorable economic indicators. As a result, growth and volume declined with Q1 shipments below 69m units, the lowest recorded volume since Q1 2009.


Those have to have been some low expectations. And here's the threat:
"Although shipments did exceed an already cautious forecast, the market unfortunately remains heavily dependent on pricing being a major driver, with entry SKU volume masking a still tenuous demand for higher priced systems that is needed to sustain a more diverse PC ecosystem. Pricing pressure is bringing many premium SKUs into formerly mid-level pricing tiers" said Jay Chou, Senior Research Analyst, Worldwide PC Trackers. "As more vendors find it increasingly difficult to compete, we can expect additional consolidation in the PC market."


Who'll withdraw next? Samsung? Toshiba? Actually, Acer is seeing terrible profits - about $3 per unit sold at an ASP of $363, based on operating profit and revenue numbers.
pc  idc 
april 2015 by charlesarthur
PC leaders continue growth and share gains as market remains slow >> IDC
Worldwide PC shipments totalled 80.8m units in the fourth quarter of 2014 (4Q14), a year-on-year decline of -2.4%, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. Total shipments were slightly above expectations of -4.8% growth, but the market still contracted both year on year and in comparison to the third quarter.

Although the holiday quarter saw shipment volume inch above 80m for the first time in 2014, the final quarter nonetheless marked the end of yet another difficult year – the third consecutive year with overall volumes declining. On an annual basis, 2014 shipments totaled 308.6m units, down -2.1% from the prior year.


Gartner gives 4Q 2014 a +1% growth, to 83.7m, and the whole year essentially level at 315.9m. I think Gartner includes 2-in-1 units, where IDC doesn't. And growth came from enterprise - consumer sales kept falling.
pc  idc  gartner 
january 2015 by charlesarthur
Worldwide tablet growth expected to slow to 7.2% in 2014 along with first year of iPad decline >> IDC
The worldwide tablet market is expected to see a massive deceleration in 2014 with year-over-year growth slowing to 7.2%, down from 52.5% in 2013, according to a new forecast from International Data Corporation (IDC). At the core of this slowdown is the expectation that 2014 will represent the first full year of decline in Apple iPad shipments. Both the iPad and the overall market slowdown do not come as a surprise as device lifecycles for tablets have continued to lengthen, increasingly resembling those of PCs more than smartphones.

"The tablet market continues to be impacted by a few major trends happening in relevant markets," said Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. "In the early stages of the tablet market, device lifecycles were expected to resemble those of smartphones, with replacement occurring every 2-3 years. What has played out instead is that many tablet owners are holding onto their devices for more than 3 years and in some instances more than 4 years. We believe the two major drivers for longer than expected tablet lifecycles are legacy software support for older products, especially within iOS, and the increased use of smartphones for a variety of computing tasks."
tablet  idc 
november 2014 by charlesarthur
Fueled by back-to-school promotions and US growth, the worldwide tablet market grows 11.5% in the third quarter >> IDC
<blockquote class="quoted">The worldwide tablet grew 11.5% year over year in the third quarter of 2014 (3Q14) with shipments reaching 53.8m units according to preliminary data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker. Marked by back-to-school promotions and US appetite for connected tablets, the third quarter also saw shipments grow sequentially by 11.2% compared to 2Q14.

"Not only is the US market one of the largest for tablets, but third quarter results also indicate that this is where the growth is," said Jean Philippe Bouchard, IDC Research Director for Tablets. "We saw Verizon continuing to sell connected tablets at a fast pace, a strategy that we believe other carriers will replicate in following quarters. We also saw RCA enter the top 5, impacting the entire US market and worldwide ranking with one large deal linked to back-to-school and channel fill ahead of Black Friday. Those two elements resulted in the US tablet market growing at 18.5% year-over-year compared to the worldwide market growing at 11.5% annually."

Despite a continued shipment decline for its iPad product line, Apple maintained its lead in the worldwide tablet market, shipping 12.3m units in the third quarter. Samsung held its number two position on the market with 9.9m units shipped, capturing an 18.3% market share in the third quarter.

Asus did well, based on Windows-based 2-in-1 devices (which IDC doesn't count as PCs). RCA, though?
idc  tablets 
october 2014 by charlesarthur

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