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Navigating a Breathtaking Level of Global Economic Change
November 14, 2017 |The New York Times | by Andrew Ross Sorkin.
you’d think that any sense of “faith” in the global economy might be shaken, or at least, uncertain given events like North Korea, Russian interference in elections in the United States, post-Brexit Europe, and hurricane damage.

Not so.

In conversation after conversation with some of the nation’s top business leaders and chief executives last week, there is a stunning amount of genuine “confidence” in our economy here and, yes, even globally.

“I’m very surprised,” Laurence D. Fink, the founder of BlackRock, the largest money manager in the world overseeing some $6 trillion, said at The New York Times DealBook conference last Thursday, describing his new sense of optimism.......Mark Cuban, whose disdain for President Trump is so acute that he is considering running for president himself in 2020 as a Republican because it “means you get to go head-on with Trump right in the primaries — and so there’s nothing I’d have more fun doing.” Still, though, he said he believes the economy is in good enough shape that when it comes to investing in the stock market, “I just, you know, I just let it ride.”

Mr. Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, said he keeps a small amount of cash on hand as a precaution. “I keep a little bit, you know, as a hedge. I call it my ‘Trump hedge’ because you just never know.....Earlier in 2017, The Conference Board reported that chief executives’ confidence had reached 2008 pre-recession highs in the first quarter.....there are pockets of the economy that are causing anxiety. “The last two or three years have not been fun whatsoever,” Mickey Drexler, the chairman of J. Crew, said at the conference about the traditional retail business, which has been upended by Amazon and changes in consumer behavior. “It’s been miserable.” Those challenges are extending to mall owners and commercial real estate, too..... is the stock market a proxy for the economy of America?....“In the aftermath of corporate and public-sector disasters, it often emerges that participants fell prey to a collective form of willful blindness and overconfidence: mounting warning signals were systematically cast aside or met with denial, evidence avoided or selectively reinterpreted, dissenters shunned,” Roland Bénabou a professor at Princeton University wrote in a seminal work on confidence and groupthink. “Market bubbles and manias exhibit the same pattern of investors acting ’colorblind in a sea of red flags,’ followed by a crash.”
confidence  Andrew_Sorkin  Mark_Cuban  Laurence_Fink  BlackRock  shifting_tastes  optimism  consumer_behavior  CEOs  J._Crew  Mickey_Drexler  commercial_real_estate  shopping_malls  warning_signs  groupthink  bubbles  overconfidence  precaution  global_economy  willful_blindness  manias  market_crash 
november 2017 by jerryking
Live Interviews With C.E.O.s of Uber, AT&T and More: DealBook Conference - The New York Times
NOV. 9, 2017 | New York TImes | By DEALBOOK.

Why the new DealBook is your must-read.

Over the past several years, business has become inextricably linked with policy — in Washington, in Brussels, in Beijing — like never before. That’s why we’re reimagining DealBook with a renewed focus on the intersection of these crosscurrents, as well as a broader frame on the world of business to include technology, innovation, philanthropy and corporate governance.

DealBook will aim to identify, curate and prioritize the most critical information, providing a trusted one-stop-shop for the business and policy developments that matter. You’ll also be able to read the live, updated DealBook report here.

And yes, we’re still covering the world of deals as much as ever before. (You may have notice we’ve been subtly experimenting with this evolution in coverage over the past couple of months.)

Many of you — some 300,000-plus subscribers to our newsletter alone — have been with us since the very beginning. Thank you.

We would love to hear your feedback. And if you like what you see, we’d be grateful if you would recommend us to a friend or co-worker.

Thanks for your support.
conferences  Andrew_Sorkin  CEOs  interviews  Colin_Kaepernick 
november 2017 by jerryking
Katzenberg’s Big Ask: $2 Billion for Short-Form Video Project
OCT. 2, 2017 | The New York Times | By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN.

Jeffrey Katzenberg’s idea of fund-raising is on a very different scale.

Mr. Katzenberg....is trying to raise $2 billion for his new television start-up. That is likely to be the largest first round of financing in history for a digital media company that, at least at the moment, is only a concept swirling around in his head......Mr. Katzenberg, 66, is convinced that his new product, called New TV, can upend the format of television for mobile devices. He wants to create the next-generation version of HBO or Netflix, purpose-built for viewing on phones and tablets with short-form content of premium quality — think of “Game of Thrones” as if each episode had a narrative arc of 10 minutes.

He wants to create big, expensive productions at a cost of $100,000 a minute. (For the sake of comparison, a highly produced minute of programming on YouTube might cost $10,000.)......Mr. Katzenberg’s hunch about the way a huge swath of consumers will watch television in the future is, in all likelihood, right. The number of teenagers and young adults who have their nose pressed to their mobile devices watching video content is startling. Globally, 72 % of all video is viewed on a mobile device, according to Ooyala, a video platform provider.

The question is whether his idea is ahead of its time. And whether he can find the right business model to support such expensive programing.

Mr. Katzenberg is a realist. “We need $2 billion. That’s a high bar,” he said. And he acknowledges that the financial details still need to be worked out. It’s daunting. He needs to build an instant library of content — and a big one.....Mr. Katzenberg’s gamble is being taken seriously because of his long history of success and his provocative thesis about the current television model. “The design and the architecture of the storytelling fit the business paradigm, not the other way around,” he explained, suggesting that shows were made in the format of a half-hour or an hour for business reasons and do not make sense in the world of mobile devices and streaming.....Mr. Katzenberg does not merely want to simply create a studio that specializes in short-form storytelling; he wants to create a platform for it. He is hoping that many of the big television networks both invest and produce content for the service.
Quibi  start_ups  funding  investors  Jeffrey_Katzenberg  entertainment_industry  content  digital_media  storytelling  platforms  SaaS  video  Andrew_Sorkin  DreamWorks  short-form  mobile  streaming  bite-sized 
october 2017 by jerryking
Conglomerates Didn’t Die. They Look Like Amazon. - The New York Times
Andrew Ross Sorkin
DEALBOOK JUNE 19, 2017

Amazon's purchase of Whole Foods re-opens the debate about conglomerates which supposed to be dead, a relic of a bygone era of corporate America as investors supposedly want smaller, nimbler, more focused companies......Amazon is just one of several digital-economy conglomerates. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is another. Facebook is quickly becoming a conglomerate, too...... today’s tech-enabled conglomerates, are spending, and often losing, tens of billions of dollars annually on all sorts of projects and acquisitions that may or may not turn out to be successful. But investors are seemingly willing to give these new behemoths a free pass in the name of growth and innovation — until they aren’t.

If there is any lesson from the last breed of industrial conglomerates, it is that there is a natural life cycle to most of them....When it comes to Amazon (or Alphabet, or any of the new conglomerates), the question is whether there is something fundamentally different about these businesses given their grounding in digital information — especially as they expand into complex brick-and-mortar operations like upscale supermarkets.

In an age of big data and artificial intelligence, are businesses that look disparate really similar? And can one company’s leadership really oversee so many different businesses? When does it become too big to manage?...a recent article in the Yale Law Journal made a compelling case that Amazon has built perhaps the ultimate economic mousetrap — one impervious to the natural life cycle of a conglomerate, but one that might ultimately prove to be anticompetitive.

The author, Lina M. Khan, a Yale Law student who has written about antitrust law and competition policy, argued that Amazon had created a “platform market” and can use its size and scale to subsidize its entrance into new businesses through predatory pricing.....The economics of platform markets create incentives for a company to pursue growth over profits,.....Amazon’s role as both a distributor and cloud provider for many of its competitors gives it an unfair advantage. “This dual role also enables a platform to exploit information collected on companies using its services to undermine them as competitors,”.....Jeff Bezos, is clear. The man who is assembling the 21st century’s most fearsome new conglomerate once explained his view of competition this way: “Your margin is my opportunity.”
conglomerates  Andrew_Sorkin  Jeff_Bezos  Amazon  GE  Jeff_Immelt  unfair_advantages  Whole_Foods  Silicon_Valley  digital_economy  Alphabet  Facebook  lessons_learned  Yale  Charles_Munger  antitrust  competition  Berkshire_Hathaway  platforms  predatory_practices  diversification  FTC  margins  staying_hungry  life_cycle  Lina_Khan  competition_policy 
june 2017 by jerryking
20 Years On, Amazon and Jeff Bezos Prove Naysayers Wrong - The New York Times
Andrew Ross Sorkin
DEALBOOK MAY 15, 2017

Twenty years ago this week, Amazon.com went public........Here we are, 20 years later, and Mr. Bezos has an authentic, legitimate claim on having changed the way we live.

He has changed the way we shop. He has changed the way companies use computers, by moving much of their information and systems to cloud services. He’s even changed the way we interact with computers by voice: “Alexa!”......he has bought — and fixed — The Washington Post,.........Most executives are worried about the next quarter, but Mr. Bezos is worried about what will happen years from now. That is a competitive advantage that many chief executives could learn from.

“If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you’re competing against a lot of people,” Mr. Bezos told Wired in 2011. Here, he was expressing the view that some chief executives think in three-year cycles — a relatively generous assessment, given that most top executives don’t last many more years than that.

“But,” he continued, “if you’re willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people, because very few companies are willing to do that.”....Is Mr. Bezos an easy boss? Hardly. He is unbelievably demanding. ......I’m supposed to hate Mr. Bezos. After all, he has pressured publishers, cut their margins and practically put old-school bookstores out of business. As if to rub it in, he’s now introducing bricks-and-mortar Amazon bookstores.

But to take that view would be to misunderstand what innovation looks like. It upends industries — witness the current carnage in the retail industry, which has been outmoded by Amazon and all the companies trying to copy it.

“Amazon is not happening to book selling,” Mr. Bezos explained, defending his role in a 2013 interview with Charlie Rose. “The future is happening to book selling.” And the future is now happening to retail stores and even supermarkets — Mr. Bezos’ next conquest. And the future is clearly happening to enterprise computing.
Andrew_Sorkin  Jeff_Bezos  Amazon  WaPo  newspapers  e-commerce  anniversaries  moguls  trailblazers  time_horizons  cloud_computing  Alexa  long-term  Warren_Buffett  innovation 
may 2017 by jerryking
Steve Ballmer Serves Up a Fascinating Data Trove - The New York Times
Andrew Ross Sorkin
DEALBOOK APRIL 17, 2017
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Steve_Ballmer  government  Andrew_Sorkin  databases  data  measurements  economics  indicators  real-time  forecasting  economic_data 
april 2017 by jerryking
Book Pins Corporate Greed on a Lust Bred at Harvard - The New York Times
Andrew Ross Sorkin
DEALBOOK APRIL 10, 2017

the Harvard Business School in Cambridge, Mass... produces a disproportionate number of the nation’s business leaders.

“The Golden Passport,” by the veteran business journalist Duff McDonald, is a richly reported indictment of the school as a leading reason that corporate America is disdained by much of the country.

“The Harvard Business School became (and remains) so intoxicated with its own importance that it blithely assumed away one of the most important questions it could ask, which was whether the capitalist system it was uniquely positioned to help improve was designed properly for the long term,”
HBS  capitalism  greed  Andrew_Sorkin  books  mission-driven  leaders  leadership_development 
april 2017 by jerryking
An Insider-Trading Tale That Reads Like a Thriller - The New York Times
By ANDREW ROSS SORKINFEB. 7, 2017

“Black Edge: Inside Information, Dirty Money, and the Quest to Bring Down the Most Wanted Man on Wall Street,”
nonfiction  hedge_funds  Andrew_Sorkin  books  slight_edge  insider_trading  informational_advantages  Wall_Street  Preet_Bharara  SAC_Capital  Steven_Cohen  book_reviews  white-collar_crime  Sheelah_Kolhatkar 
february 2017 by jerryking
A Quiet Giant of Investing Weighs In on Trump
FEB. 6, 2017 | The New York Times | Andrew Ross Sorkin

In his letter, Mr. Klarman sets forth a countervailing view to the euphoria that has buoyed the stock market since Mr. Trump took office, describing “perilously high valuations.”

“Exuberant investors have focused on the potential benefits of stimulative tax cuts, while mostly ignoring the risks from America-first protectionism and the erection of new trade barriers,” he wrote.

“President Trump may be able to temporarily hold off the sweep of automation and globalization by cajoling companies to keep jobs at home, but bolstering inefficient and uncompetitive enterprises is likely to only temporarily stave off market forces,” he continued. “While they might be popular, the reason the U.S. long ago abandoned protectionist trade policies is because they not only don’t work, they actually leave society worse off.”

In particular, Mr. Klarman appears to believe that investors have become hypnotized by all the talk of pro-growth policies, without considering the full ramifications. He worries, for example, that Mr. Trump’s stimulus efforts “could prove quite inflationary, which would likely shock investors.”.....“The big picture for investors is this: Trump is high volatility, and investors generally abhor volatility and shun uncertainty,” he wrote. “Not only is Trump shockingly unpredictable, he’s apparently deliberately so; he says it’s part of his plan.”

While Mr. Klarman clearly is hoping for the best, he warned, “If things go wrong, we could find ourselves at the beginning of a lengthy decline in dollar hegemony, a rapid rise in interest rates and inflation, and global angst.”...In his recent letter, he explained for the first time his decision to say something publicly. “Despite my preference to stay out of the media,” he wrote, “I’ve taken the view that each of us can be bystanders, or we can be upstanders. I choose upstander.”....How Mr. Klarman wants investors to behave in the age of Trump remains an open question. But here’s a hint: At the top of his letter, he included three quotations. One was attributed to Thomas Jefferson: “In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.”
Seth_Klarman  investors  hedge_funds  Donald_Trump  investing  ETFs  value_investing/investors  money_management  Andrew_Sorkin  countervailing  the_big_picture  nobystanders  Thomas_Jefferson  quotes  stylish  principles  uncompetitive 
february 2017 by jerryking
A Reading List of Tell-Alls, Strategic Plans and Cautionary Tales in Finance - The New York Times
JULY 4, 2016 | DEALBOOK | Andrew Ross Sorkin

(1) “Chaos Monkeys: Obscene Fortune and Random Failure in Silicon Valley,” by a former Facebook executive, Antonio García Martinez.
(2) “The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse” by Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz and chairman of President Obama’s Global Development Council.
(3) “Makers and Takers: The Rise of Finance and the Fall of American Business” Rana Foroohar
(4) “Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the World” Adam Grant
(5) Bloodsport: When Ruthless Dealmakers, Shrewd Ideologues, and Brawling Lawyers Toppled the Corporate Establishment” by Robert Teitelman,
(6) “Dear Chairman: Boardroom Battles and the Rise of Shareholder Activism,” by Jeff Gramm, owner and manager of the Bandera Partners hedge fund and an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School.
(7) “Brazillionaires: Wealth, Power, Decadence, and Hope in an American Country” by the journalist Alex Cuadros.
(8) a biography of Alan Greenspan titled, “The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan.” It is by the journalist Sebastian Mallaby, an adroit writer who also published a brilliant book on hedge funds several years ago, called “More Money than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite.”
(9) “To Pixar and Beyond: My Unlikely Journey with Steve Jobs to Make Entertainment History” by Lawrence Levy, the former chief financial officer of Pixar.
Rana_Foroohar  books  booklists  summertime  Andrew_Sorkin  Pixar  Mohamed_El-Erian  hedge_funds  central_banks  finance  dealmakers  Silicon_Valley  Brazil  biographies  Adam_Grant  cautionary_tales 
july 2016 by jerryking
Why Uber Keeps Raising Billions - The New York Times
Andrew Ross Sorkin
DEALBOOK JUNE 20, 2016
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Uber  funding  venture_capital  Andrew_Sorkin  sharing_economy  deterrence  finance 
june 2016 by jerryking
Elon Musk’s Ex-Wife on What It Takes to Be a Mogul - NYTimes.com
April 27, 2015 | NYT |Andrew Ross Sorkin.

“Extreme success results from an extreme personality and comes at the cost of many other things,” Ms. Musk wrote. “Extreme success is different from what I suppose you could just consider ‘success.’ These people tend to be freaks and misfits who were forced to experience the world in an unusually challenging way,” she added, noting, “Other people consider them to be somewhat insane.”

She boiled down the one ingredient for extreme success: “Be obsessed. Be obsessed. Be obsessed.”

But Ms. Musk wasn’t being critical. “Extreme people combine brilliance and talent with an *insane* work ethic,” she wrote, “so if the work itself doesn’t drive you, you will burn out or fall by the wayside or your extreme competitors will crush you and make you cry.”
Elon_Musk  Andrew_Sorkin  moguls  entrepreneur  focus  advice  work_ethic  hard_work  personal_cost 
april 2015 by jerryking
BlackRock’s Chief, Laurence Fink, Urges Other C.E.O.s to Stop Being So Nice to Investors - NYTimes.com
APRIL 13, 2015
Continue reading the main storyVideo

PLAY VIDEO|3:24
BlackRock Chief on ‘Gambling Society’
BlackRock Chief on ‘Gambling Society’
Laurence D. Fink, chief executive of the largest asset manager in the world, warns that too many C.E.O.’s have been trying to return money to investors through dividends and buying back stock By CNBC on Publish Date April 14, 2015. Photo by Mark Lennihan/Associated Press.

Andrew Ross Sorkin
Laurence_Fink  CEOs  asset_management  Andrew_Sorkin  institutional_investors  Wall_Street  shareholder_activism  long-term  BlackRock 
april 2015 by jerryking
Google Should Feel Lucky in Its Finance Chief Hire - NYTimes.com
MARCH 24, 2015 | NYT | Robert Cyran is a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews. For more independent commentary and analysis, visit breakingviews.com.

Google should feel lucky about its search for a new chief financial officer.

There’s a dearth of executives with the financial, technology and government know-how needed to help run a $400 billion company. Even fewer women fit the bill. Silicon Valley and Wall Street just can’t find people like Morgan Stanley’s chief financial officer, Ruth Porat, fast enough. The challenge is to create more like her.

Ms. Porat grew up in Palo Alto, Calif., and graduated from Stanford before embarking on an almost three-decade career in investment banking.
CFOs  Google  Silicon_Valley  Wall_Street  women  Stanford  alumni  Andrew_Sorkin 
march 2015 by jerryking
The Christie’s Auctioneer Jussi Pylkkanen on Working the Room - NYTimes.com
Interview by ANDREW ROSS SORKIN
Published: January 3, 2014

How much do you think the auctioneer affects sale prices?
It’s very difficult to judge, but I think that a good auctioneer can certainly bring 20 percent to the value of major works of art.

Just as Detroit finally seems to be at the beginning of a revival, it faces the prospect of trying be once again be a great city without a great museum. Imagine New York without the Met, or Chicago without the Art Institute. If the DIA is forced down this road, the very collectors mentioned above, from Asia, Russia, and the Middle East, will snap up a collection that has required 128 years and the generosity and foresight of thousands of people to create, and which would likely never be seen in public again.
Andrew_Sorkin  collectors  art  auctions  Christie's  foresight  long-term  museums  far-sightedness  Detroit  generosity 
january 2014 by jerryking
The Essential Wall St. Summer Reading List - NYTimes.com
July 1, 2013, 6:09 pm 86 Comments
The Essential Wall St. Summer Reading List
By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN
booklists  Wall_Street  summertime  Andrew_Sorkin 
july 2013 by jerryking
One Way to Look at Private Equity - NYTimes.com
January 16, 2012 |NYT | By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN

Alan Webber
Santa Fe, New Mexico

Flag

With all due respect, I think Messrs. Levy and Sorkin are missing the point: The question is not, does private equity play a valuable role in the economy? The question is, does Mitt Romney's experience in private equity represent a valid argument for why he should be President? Most people would say that private equity plays an important role--in the private sector. Of course, there are firms and individuals who have played the game fast and loose. Just as there are many who see the contribution that private equity can make to innovation and entrepreneurship. Not relevant, however, to the debate at hand. The debate at hand is over whether Mitt Romney's experience at Bain Capital has any bearing on his being President? Would you want the U.S. economy run like a private equity fund? (And if it were, wouldn't the President be picking winners and losers? Not very conservative, that idea!) Mr. Levy doesn't have to defend private equity. He needs to tell us whether being the head of a private equity fund in any way qualifies an individual to be President--a job which has to serve more stakeholders than just the financial markets. This column answers the wrong question and doesn't even ask the right one.
private_equity  Andrew_Sorkin  letters_to_the_editor  Bain_Capital  questions  financial_markets  Mitt_Romney  Campaign_2012 
january 2012 by jerryking
Instant messengers - FT.com
September 30, 2011 5:35 pm
Instant messengers

By John Gapper

In principle, the two types of history – an instant account and the long view – are complementary. The journalist digs up the ground and tries to uncover facts immediately, and the historian assembles all the available data and adds perspective. Rival versions of history may agree on the basic facts but shape them differently to produce varying conclusions.
journalists  historians  Andrew_Sorkin  Michael_Lewis  Frank_Partnoy 
october 2011 by jerryking
For Deals, Wall Street Goes East - NYTimes.com
September 28, 2011, 6:48 pm Mergers & Acquisitions | DealBook Column
For Deals, Wall Street Goes East
By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN

“The interest among Western institutional investors to getting exposure to China, Brazil and India is clear. It’s a big mind shift,” said Sarah Alexander, president of the Emerging Markets Private Equity Association. And she added, they’ve been looking farther afield. “You’ve got Indonesia on the map, Colombia, Peru.”
Andrew_Sorkin  Carlyle_Group  Wall_Street  private_equity  institutional_investors  emerging_markets  globalization  David_Rubenstein  dealmakers  Blackstone  frontier_markets 
september 2011 by jerryking
Warren Buffett, Delegator in Chief - NYTimes.com
By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN
April 23, 2011
“Did Sokol’s actions reveal shortcomings in the company’s governance
system that need to be addressed?” asked Stanford University’s Graduate
School of Business in a paper titled “The Resignation of David Sokol:
Mountain or Molehill for Berkshire Hathaway?”
Warren_Buffett  Andrew_Sorkin  David_Sokol  controversies  Berkshire_Hathaway  delegation  boards_&_directors_&_governance 
april 2011 by jerryking
Buffett's Ruthlessness Is Oddly Absent on Sokol - NYTimes.com
April 4, 2011, 9:10 pm DealBook Column
Buffett’s Ruthlessness Is Oddly Absent on Sokol
By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN
Warren_Buffett  compliance  scandals  Andrew_Sorkin  David_Sokol  ruthlessness 
april 2011 by jerryking
The Great Global Buyout Bubble
November 13, 2005 | New York Times | By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN
KKR  private_equity  Andrew_Sorkin  bubbles 
december 2010 by jerryking

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