recentpopularlog in

jerryking : andy_kessler   42

Dear Grads: How to Slay Dragons in the Business World
May 20, 2019 | WSJ | by Andy Kessler.

here’s my simple advice: Be a hero. You’ll have a job with a vague description. Sales. Physician assistant. Manager. Business intelligence. Everyone comes in with a task. Don’t let your job description be a straitjacket. Do something above and beyond. That’s what your employers want, whether they admit it or not.

Im-74937
I’ve seen it again and again. I heard from a woman named Carol working in international marketing for a Midwest company. She was asked by a superior working on a board deck for a list of European competitors. She came up with a single PowerPoint slide that visually showed the reach of each competitor overlaid with her company’s distributors and analysis of how it could best compete. The slide was a huge hit. The chief operating officer thanked her. She got a raise and more responsibilities.

On Wall Street, I used to work with a salesman named Steve. A deal to raise money for a paper company was stuck. No one would touch it at $20. It was uglier than Dunder Mifflin. Steve had a new account in Milwaukee and insisted it buy several million shares, but at $18. On hearing someone was willing to buy, other accounts piled in. Steve is still known as the guy who got the ugly deal done—a hero.

Then there’s the coder, Paul. There were long discussions about how his company might get paid for its web service, but no solutions. “On a Friday,” Paul recalls, he sat down and invented one. “It seemed like an interesting problem, so one evening I implemented this content-targeting system, just as a sort of side project, not because I was supposed to.” What became known as AdSense morphed into a $115 billion business. Paul Buchheit was employee No. 23 at Google. He also developed Gmail. Giga-hero.

You don’t have to save a baby from a fire. In Silicon Valley there’s a saying about pain killers versus vitamins: Either save costs or generate revenue. You can be a hero either way.

Another easy route to heroism: Every company has particularly nasty clients. They don’t return calls and they badmouth your products. Everyone avoids them. Instead, go for it. Roll up your sleeves and find something you have in common with them. Better yet, find their weakness. Horse racing. Wilco. Anime. You’ll own them.
advice  Andy_Kessler  Colleges_&_Universities  commencement  first90days  high-achieving  howto  new_graduates  overachievers  painkillers  pain_points  speeches  Steve_Jobs  vitamins 
july 2019 by jerryking
The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be
June 17, 2019 | WSJ | by Andy Kessler.

Founded in 1867, the Keuffel & Esser Co. commissioned a study of the future for its 100th anniversary. If you’re of a certain vintage, you might have used a K&E slide rule. Their “visionary” study was a huge dud, missing completely the electronic-calculator boom that came a few years later. They shut down their slide-rule engravers in 1976. As Mark Twain said, “It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” Or was it Niels Bohr? Maybe Yogi Berra?

My father was a proud member of the Book of the Month Club. Bored on a visit home in 1989, I devoured that month’s selection, “Megamistakes” by Baruch College professor Steven Schnaars, where I read about K&E’s study. The book’s message was simple: Don’t be fooled by prevailing opinion, and don’t extend trend lines into the future. Mr. Schnaars chronicles how 1950s jet-age thinking morphed into ’60s dreams of a space-age utopia. A 1966 study by conglomerate TRW forecast manned lunar bases by 1977, autonomous vehicles by 1979 and intelligent robot soldiers by the ’90s. AT&T ’s Picturephone service, ultrasonically cleaned dishes, cheap energy forever, future shock everywhere—all wrong.

Of course, the 1973 oil embargo changed everything. But by the end of the ’70s, expensive oil was considered permanent and the future was about scarcity and energy saving and we’d all be driving small cars with CB radios and living in R. Buckminster Fuller-inspired geodesic domes. General Electric even ramped up production of small refrigerators. Mistakes!Im-82150

Then the ’80s came along. A bull market and cheap oil lifted the ’70s fog, but everyone believed the Japanese would soon rule the world since they were kicking our butts in manufacturing and the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was worth more than all the real estate in California. Personal computers were mere toys. Oh, and the Soviet Union was a world superpower. Megamistakes!

After the ’87 crash and first Iraq war, the prospects for economic growth in the ’90s were dim. Then Netscape and its browser went public in 1995 and we were off to the races again. By 1999 techno-utopia was in full swing, and all you needed was a good name like burnmoney.com to raise millions and be worth kazillions. Gigamistake!

The Nasdaq’s dot-bomb implosion and 9/11 changed the mood quickly. In 2003 I tried to pitch a book about Silicon Valley and Wall Street and was told nobody would care about them ever again and asked if I knew anything about bioterrorism or Islamic fundamentalism. Uh, no. But I wish I knew about house or derivative flipping - that’s what the aughts were about, until the Great Recession. The 2010s were about holding cash, maybe in your mattress, vs. owning stocks. Oops— Apple , Amazon and Microsoft would soon flirt with trillion-dollar valuations. Teramistake?

Mr. Schnaars advised discounting extrapolations, playing down historical precedent, challenging assumptions, and distinguishing fads from growth markets. Easier said than done. The future happens, just not the way most people think. How you pick your investments, your job and even where you live can end up a dead end or the most vibrant upside imaginable. Choose carefully, but as Mr. Schnaars suggested, think for yourself.

Today low interest rates mean risk is on and caution is old-fashioned. Companies sell at 20 times revenues instead of earnings (Note: Beyond Meat is at 43 times its 2019 sales forecast, and Tableau Software recently sold for 16 times its 2018 revenue.) Politically, populism and nationalism have won the day. Internationally, China is the new U.S.S.R. Economically, the future is now. Will any of it last?

For a while, Tesla was valued as if every new car would soon be electric. The 2020s are still blurry, but apparently that doesn’t cloud the pundit class’s clear vision on climate change, drones, autonomous vehicles and the effect of artificial intelligence. We’ll all share cars, bikes, scooters and even pogo sticks. WeWork is valued as if we’ll all share offices. What’s next, communes?

My experience is that people tend to overestimate the absurd, like Elon Musk’s dreams of building a hyperloop and colonizing Mars, and underestimate the mundane, like improvements in messaging and shopping. I’m usually bullish until dreams become hallucinations. Technology develops in S curves: Things start slow, go into hyperbolic growth, and then roll over. [ JCK: See also John Ruffolo's explanation of Amara’s Law on the effect of technology, which aptly states: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” ] That’s why “the singularity”—self-improving, unrestrained artificial intelligence—probably won’t happen. Don’t extend the trend.

The tempests of change blow hard. Reading the prevailing winds, we’re all about to become robot-replaced, drone-delivered-synthetic-meat-eating, augmented-reality-helmet-wearing, bitcoin-spending, fruit-flavored-vaping, neutered democratic socialists chirping “Comrade” and streaming “The Handmaid’s Tale” Season 10, “Dystopia’s Discontents,” on our watches while collecting universal basic income. You don’t need a slide rule to calculate the megamistakes.
Amara's_Law  Andy_Kessler  forecasting  future  linearity  mistakes  overestimation  predictions  S-curves  straight-lines  underestimation 
july 2019 by jerryking
What You Need to Know to Pick an IPO
April 7, 2019 | WSJ | By Andy Kessler.
Dig up dirt on the competition and board members, and buy to hold long-term.......How do you know which IPOs to buy? No, not to trade—you’d never get it right. Lyft priced at $72, traded at $85 on its first day, then closed at $78, only to fall to $67 on its second day. It’s now $74. I’m talking about buying and holding for a few years. Yes I know, how quaint.

The trick is to read the prospectus. What are you, crazy? That’s a couple hundred pages. Well, not the whole thing. But remember, where the stock trades on its first day is noise....... So understanding long-term prospects are critical. Here are a few shortcuts.

(1) First, glance at the underwriters along the bottom of the cover. On the top line are the banks putting their reputation on the line. If the one on the far left is Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley or JPMorgan , you’re probably OK.
(2) open the management section and study the directors. Forget the venture capitalists or strategic partners with board seats—they have their own agendas. Non-employee directors are the ones who are supposed to be representing you, the public investor. And their value depends on their experience.
(3) OK, now figure out what the company does. You can watch the roadshow video, look at prospectus pictures, and skim the offering’s Business section. Now ignore most of that. Underwriters are often terrible at positioning companies to the market.......when positioning companies, only three things matter: a monster market; an unfair competitive advantage like patents, algorithms or a network effect; and a business model to leverage that advantage. Look for those. If you can’t find them, pass. Commodities crumble........read the Management’s Discussion and Analysis. Companies are forced to give detailed descriptions of each of their sectors and products or services. Then flip back and forth to the Financials, looking at the items on the income statement and matching them up with the operations being discussed. Figure out what the company might look like in five years. And use my “10x” rule: Lyft is worth $25 billion—can they make $2.5 billion after-tax someday? Finally there’s the Risk section, which is mostly boilerplate but can contain good dirt on competition.
(4) Put the prospectus away and save it as a souvenir. Try to figure out the real story of the company. Do some digging.
(5) My final advice: Never, ever put in a market order for shares on the first day of an IPO.
10x  advice  algorithms  Andy_Kessler  boards_&_directors_&_governance  business_models  competitive_advantage  deception  due_diligence  howto  IPOs  large_markets  long-term  Lyft  network_effects  noise  patents  positioning  prospectuses  risks  stock_picking  think_threes  Uber  underwriting  unfair_advantages 
april 2019 by jerryking
Life as We Know It Turns 50 - WSJ
Dec. 2, 2018 | WSJ | By Andy Kessler.

1968's Joint Computer Conference, where an assembly of geniuses wearing white short-sleeved shirts and pocket protectors convened 50 years ago this week. The event shined a guiding light on the path to personal computing and set the modern world in motion.

On Dec. 9, 1968, Doug Engelbart of the Stanford Research Institute presented what’s now known as “The Mother of All Demos.” Using a homemade modem, a video feed from Menlo Park, and a quirky hand-operated device, Engelbart gave a 90-minute demonstration of hypertext, videoconferencing, teleconferencing and a networked operating system. Oh, and graphical user interface, display editing, multiple windows, shared documents, context-sensitive help and a digital library. Mother of all demos is right. That quirky device later became known as the computer mouse. The audience felt as if it had stepped into Oz, watching the world transform from black-and-white to color. But it was no hallucination.
1968  Andy_Kessler  anniversaries  conferences  GUI  San_Francisco  Stanford 
december 2018 by jerryking
The Chip That Changed the World
Aug. 26, 2018 | WSJ | By Andy Kessler.

Integrated circuits are the greatest invention since fire—or maybe indoor plumbing. The world would be unrecognizable without them. They have bent the curve of history, influencing the economy, government and general human flourishing. The productivity unleashed from silicon computing power disrupted or destroyed everything in its path: retail, music, finance, advertising, travel, manufacturing, health care, energy. It’s hard to find anything Kilby’s invention hasn’t changed.

Now what? Despite the routine media funeral for Moore’s Law, it’s not dead yet. But it is old.......Brace yourself. When Moore’s Law finally gives up the ghost, productivity and economic growth will roll over too—unless. The world needs another Great Bend, another Kilbyesque warp in the cosmos, to drive the economy.

One hope is quantum computing, which isn’t limited by binary 1s and 0s, but instead uses qubits (quantum bits) based on Schrödinger’s quantum mechanics. .......Maybe architecture will keep the growth alive. Twenty years ago, Google created giant parallel computer systems to solve the search problem. The same may be seen for artificial intelligence, which is in its infancy. ......Energy is being disrupted but not fast enough. Where is that battery breakthrough? .........Biocomputing is another fascinating area. We already have gene editing in the form of Crispr. New food supplies and drugs may change how humans live and not die and bend the curve. But.... anything involving biology is painfully slow. ....Computing takes nanoseconds; biology takes days, weeks, even years. Breakthroughs may still come, but experiments take so long that progress lags behind. Still, I’d watch this space closely.
Andy_Kessler  artificial_intelligence  breakthroughs  broad-based_scientific_enquiry  Crispr  game_changers  gene_editing  Gordon_Moore  hard_to_find  history  inventions  miniaturization  molecular_biology  Moore's_Law  Nobel_Prizes  quantum_computing  semiconductors 
august 2018 by jerryking
The Future Is Dodgeball -
Nov. 5, 2017 | WSJ | By Andy Kessler.

Ben Rosen rambled on about getting in the middle of things at events, conferences and seminars. He said that at first nothing will make sense and all these balls will be flying across the room out of your reach. But eventually you’ll find yourself in the middle of the room and balls will start hitting you. Then you’ll know you’re inside....Turns out it was the best advice I would ever receive.

The thing about the future is that, as William Goldman wrote about screenwriting, “Nobody knows anything.” Everyone is an outsider, and it’s all up for grabs. Someone might have an opinion, but there are few facts. What you need are your own opinions about where the world is headed in any given industry: artificial intelligence, gene editing, autonomous trucks, marine salvage—whatever.

You need to go to places where the future is discussed. Every industry has these events. Make the time to go. And not only to hear keynoters billow hot air, but for the panel discussions where people disagree. The conversation spills out into the hallways between talks..... Barge in anyway. Remember, there are no facts, only opinions.

Walk up and talk to people. Ask what they do. They’re there because they want to learn something too. They will all ask you what you think. Come up with something fast, but don’t be too stubborn to change what you think as you learn more. During the personal-computer era I saw a guy, whom Bill Gates had just introduced, standing by himself after showcasing the first truly high-resolution videogame. I chatted him up and he has been a friend for life, showing me not only where technology is headed but the path it takes.

It’s not classic networking but a network of ideas. The goal is finding a new way to think, to filter news over time as the future takes shape in fits and starts. It never happens in a straight line. Hydraulic fracturing has been around and argued about since 1947. Anyone had a chance to study this future of unlocking natural gas and make a fortune. Same for artificial intelligence in 1956, e-commerce in 1979 and quantum computing in 1982.

The future doesn’t happen overnight. You just need to get inside it and let some of those balls whizzing by start to hit you. And you’ve got to do this in person. Most issues don’t show up online, let alone on Facebook or Twitter . It’s tough as a writer to admit that subtle nuances sometimes require face-to-face conversation.

It doesn’t matter if you’re 25, 45 or 65. The industry you pick to work in has more of a say in your success than your job description. Same for giving money away. If you want to fund Alzheimer’s research, you better find yourself at wonky conferences going toe-to-toe with doctors. Eventually, you’ll know more.

I met Jeff Bezos at a tech conference about a decade ago and mentioned that I had just self-published a book and used his Amazon Advantage program to sell it. He proceeded to grill me like a steak, asking what was wrong with it and what features he should add. I’m convinced he keeps winning because he enjoys being hit with dodgeballs. He famously left New York a retailing outsider with an idea to sell books. Balls whizzed by until they hit. He now has the ultimate inside view.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
“Play in traffic.”.....“It means that if you go push yourself out there and you see people and do things and participate and get involved, something happens,” he said. “Both of my great occasions in life happened by accident simply because I showed up.”“I tell people, just show up, get in the game, go play in traffic,” Mr. Plumeri said. “Something good will come of it, but you’ve got to show up.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Andy_Kessler  '80s  Wall_Street  Morgan_Stanley  Communicating_&_Connecting  conferences  panels  future  small_talk  face2face  independent_viewpoints  action-oriented  ice-breakers  advice  playing_in_traffic  industry_expertise  Jeff_Bezos  straight-lines  think_differently 
november 2017 by jerryking
Ray Dalio and the Market’s Pulse
Sept. 24, 2017 | WSJ | By Andy Kessler

Has Ray Dalio lost the pulse? The founder of the $160 billion hedge fund Bridgewater Associates is all over the place spouting his management philosophy of radical transparency. .....The investment whiz lives and manages by a set of principles that employees have to memorize. ..... “Most problems are potential improvements screaming at you.” Or this reworked cliché: “While most others seem to believe that pain is bad, I believe that pain is required to become stronger.”.....Bridgewater is losing money this year. Through July its flagship fund is down 3%, while the market is up more than 10%. ......The core of investing is quite simple: Determine what everyone else thinks, and then figure out in which direction they are wrong. That’s it. No one tells you what they think. You’ve got to feel it. .....It’s all about figuring out what is priced into a stock right now. That’s the pulse of the market, the collective mind meld aggregated into stock prices. I know from experience this is the hardest part of running a hedge fund. You can find the greatest story ever, but if everyone already knows it, there’s no money to be made..... the pulse changes with each government statistic, each daily ringing of cash registers and satellite images taken of parking lots. That’s why stocks trade every day. Real-world inputs and the drifting pulse drive the psychotic tick of the stock market tape. ....How do you find that pulse? .....

It’s best to survey your own people......Dalio doesn’t care about employees’ opinions or ideas; he just wants to take their pulse to figure out what the market already knows. Or as he puts it: “The biggest mistake most people make is to not see themselves and others objectively.”....Too much capital is often a burden. There are only so many good investment ideas out there, and it’s late in this cycle.....“Truth—more precisely, an accurate understanding of reality—is the essential foundation for any good outcomes.” Here’s a truth: If Bridgewater has lost its mojo, Mr. Dalio would be smart to manage a much smaller pot of money rather than torture his employees.
Andy_Kessler  Ray_Dalio  Bridgewater  hedge_funds  investors  investing  biases  pretense_of_knowledge  principles  transparency  market_sentiment 
september 2017 by jerryking
The High Cost of Raising Prices - WSJ
By Andy Kessler
July 30, 2017

The more prices rise, the more customers bolt. It’s like running up a down escalator and never getting to the top. With the stock market hitting highs just about every day, investors need to be wary of companies that raise prices to make their numbers. These stocks make for spectacular sell-offs on even the slightest earnings miss......I had a friend who worked at General Electric for decades. He told me that in strategy sessions with his management, Jack Welch would constantly berate them, saying, “Any idiot can raise prices.” Except he used a stronger word than idiot to coax them into squeezing out costs, adding features, improving services and generally delighting customers. Contrast this with Berkshire Hathaway . Vice Chairman Charlie Munger found that with See’s Candies “we could raise prices 10% a year and no one cared. Learning that changed Berkshire.” .........There’s a long list of price bumpers. Walk down any supermarket aisle. Kellogg’s prices constantly snap, crackle and mostly pop. Procter & Gamble toothpaste sizes shrink faster than my cavity count, always less for the same price. Now private-equity firms are circling P&G. Same for Nestlé . Expect rising beer and liquor prices soon....Empires are lost on rising prices. Until recently, rather than innovate in mobile or cloud computing, Microsoft kept raising the price of its Windows operating system to computer manufacturers. Tablets and phones ate their lunch. Fees rose at eBay until Amazon took its growth away. .........Increasing prices attracts others to attack your market. Amazon’s Jeff Bezos warns: “Your margin is my opportunity.”....Competition solves much of this problem. Investors love protected businesses, but eventually relentless price increases kill them all. Consumers are the kangaroo at the bar in the old cartoon: The bartender says, “Say, we don’t get a lot of kangaroos in here.” The kangaroo replies, “No, and with these prices, I can see why!” Call me a kangaroo, but I prefer to invest in companies that lower prices and offer more.
Andy_Kessler  pricing  price_hikes  drawbacks  margins  Charlie_Munger  CPG  shareholder_activism  P&G  Nestlé  Kellogg  Jack_Welch  GE  large_companies  cost-cutting  Amazon  Jeff_Bezos  staying_hungry  delighting_customers  high-cost 
july 2017 by jerryking
Andy Kessler: Potholes on the Uber Ride to Riches - WSJ
By ANDY KESSLER
Dec. 8, 2014

What should Uber do? Hiring expensive crisis managers is one option. Or do these four things that everyone else eventually figured out. Admit the mistake. Fire someone. Be transparent on the solution. Put guidelines in place to assure customers that this can’t happen again. Uber hasn’t done much of this but it should.... Those who run or work at startups are a different breed. Often computer science majors or engineers, they didn’t get invited to the cool parties. And then when they came up with ideas for products or companies, just about everyone, from parents to friends, told them they were crazy. That’ll never work, they said. Get a job at IBM like your uncle. But instead these entrepreneurs persist, usually failing a time or two. Mr. Kalanick started a peer-to-peer file-sharing company called Scour that went belly up in 2000.

Entrepreneurs pitch their ideas, sometimes to angel investors like dentists and accountants with extra cash, but more often to venture capitalists looking to fund the next big thing. As a venture capitalist, I’ve been pitched thousands of times, and entrepreneurs often peddle market-size projections and future sales predictions that are creative, if not fictional.

Those who win funding wake up every day and ask what they can do to make this thing work. Hubris becomes an asset. Startup CEOs are always saying the goal is to “suck the oxygen out of the room” of their competitors. Success requires a certain bravado. That should be encouraged, but most entrepreneurs have no idea when to turn it off.
hubris  Uber  sharing_economy  ride_sharing  Andy_Kessler  guardrails  start_ups  organizational_culture  entrepreneur  torchbearers  founders 
february 2015 by jerryking
The Weekend Interview: Job Hunting in the Network Age - WSJ
By ANDY KESSLER
July 18, 2014 | WSJ |

Reid Hoffman has a theory on what makes ventures work: understanding that information is no longer isolated but instantly connected to everything else. Call it the move from the information age to the network age. Mr. Hoffman thinks that the transformation is just getting started and will take out anyone who stands in the way.

But what is a network? It's an identity, he explains, and how that identity interacts with others through communications and transactions. It's not just online, on Facebook and Twitter, but everywhere. It is the sum of those communications, conversations and interactions.

"Your identity is now constituted by the network," he says. "You are your friends, you are your tribe, you are your interactions with your colleagues, your customers, even your competitors. All those things come to form what your reputation is." In short, you are no longer the only one in control of your résumé...Mr. Hoffman had his own idea for a personal information managers (PIM) concept, but raising money proved tough. He got his first taste of venture capitalists in 1994 when he tried to find funding: "You probably should go learn how to launch software," potential investors told him.

So Mr. Hoffman joined Apple......Mr. Hoffman thinks that corporations still haven't figured out how to use LinkedIn and other platforms to their advantage. "All companies are being affected by globalization. All companies are being affected by technology disruption. Which means the innovation and adaptation cycles are getting shorter and shorter." How do you make your company more adaptive? "The answer is you need adaptive people working for you. It's much better for the company and much better for the employees—it accomplishes a network effect,"

Finding these adaptive employees is one thing, keeping them is another. LinkedIn forces companies to work at that.
accelerated_lifecycles  adaptability  Andy_Kessler  Communicating_&_Connecting  informational_advantages  innovation_cycles  job_search  learning_agility  LinkedIn  networks  networking  network_effects  network_power  Reid_Hoffman  reputation  résumés  retention  Silicon_Valley  tribes 
july 2014 by jerryking
Review: The Age of Oversupply - WSJ.com
September 25, 2013 | WSJ | By ANDY KESSLER.

Book Review: 'The Age of Oversupply' by Daniel Alpert
The world today is flooded with cheap credit. It's great if you're a factory worker in Shenzhen, or buying a 40-inch TV for $268.
books  book_reviews  Andy_Kessler  abundance  oversupply 
september 2013 by jerryking
Andy Kessler: Hedge Funders Are All a Little Nuts - WSJ.com
August 27, 2013 | WSJ | by ANDY KESSLER.

Hedge Funders Are All a Little Nuts
Sleepless nights, minds racing, working out both sides of all arguments, second guessing. Stay sane? No gain.

Carl Icahn bought $1.5 billion in Apple shares and tweeted, "We believe the company to be extremely undervalued. Spoke to Tim Cook today. More to come." This is known in the business as talking your book and, predictably, the stock popped to $500. (It's now $488.) Mr. Icahn apparently wants Apple to borrow $150 billion to finance more share buybacks, figuring the stock will go to $625. Maybe, but new products and earnings growth are the only long-term drivers of value, not an impatient investor with a few billion to throw around. Apple should ignore him.

When hedge-fund managers grab onto "sure things" rather than float, it's usually a sign they've lost their touch. Stay thirsty, my friends.

And what's an individual investor to do? Teach yourself how to think ahead of those who are scrambling for ideas. When everyone else is thinking short term, start thinking long term. Embrace ideas when everyone else hates them. Out-Costanza the hedgies.
Andy_Kessler  hedge_funds  contrarians  strategic_thinking  long-term  personal_finance  investors  Seinfeld 
september 2013 by jerryking
Summer Jobs for the Guilty Generation - WSJ.com
July 8, 2013 | WSJ | Andy Kessler.

Mr. Kessler, a former hedge-fund manager, is the author most recently of "Eat People: And Other Unapologetic Rules for Game-Changing Entrepreneurs" (Portfolio, 2011).

Given the massive wealth created in the U.S. economy over the past 30-plus years, it's understandable that the mantra of the guilty generation is sustainability and recycling. But obsessing over carbon footprints and LEED certifications and free-range strawberries and charging for plastic bags will not help the world nearly as much as good old-fashioned economic growth. Gen-G will wise up to the reality that the way to improve lives is to get to work. If Woodstockers figured this out, so will they—as soon as they get over their guilt.
Andy_Kessler  philanthropy  charities  books 
july 2013 by jerryking
The Weekend Interview with Travis Kalanick: The Transportation Trustbuster - WSJ.com
January 25, 2013 | WSJ | By ANDY KESSLER.
Travis Kalanick: The Transportation Trustbuster
Travis Kalanick, co-founder of Uber, talks about how he's bringing limo service to the urban masses—and how he learned to beat the taxi cartel and city hall.... is a hot San Francisco startup that already has 25 outposts around the world for its simple, seductive service: on-demand transportation. With an iPhone or Android app, you call up the Uber map, spot an available town car or taxi, and summon it with a click. The fare and tip for a town car, or limo, is maybe 50% higher than for a regular taxi ride and paid for through the service.
transportation  disruption  San_Francisco  Andy_Kessler  urban  Uber  mobile_applications  on-demand  start_ups  sharing_economy 
january 2013 by jerryking
GO AHEAD-JUMP!
February 26, 1996 | FORBES ASAP | by Andy Kessler.

…"get that lard out of your chair, storm into the corner office, fire yourself, and start your own enterprise".

"Opportunities abound to build on the shoulders of giants"
"It’s never been cheaper to be an entrepreneur"
"The market has never put a bigger spotlight on entrepreneurs"
" I’m talking about opportunity. Success you must provide."

Lastly, as far as risk goes:

"You say you’re worried about blowing your life savings? If you’re any good, you can always get more money by going back to a big company."
Andy_Kessler  entrepreneurship  advice  large_companies  opportunities 
december 2012 by jerryking
Hey AT&T, Drop That Coconut
September 25, 2000 | WSJ | Andy Kessler.

CEO C. Michael Armstrong is about halfway through reinventing the company, and needs a high stock price as a strategic weapon to fill in the chess pieces he’s missing — optical pipes, cable assets and wireless licenses — to offer bundles of services. So with a dozen different rate plans to confuse consumer and the FCC, he’s using long distance to milk an estimated $8 billion in consumer cash flow this year. Big mistake. You don’t manage a tech business for cash flow — the banana. You want to be investing in innovation.
Andy_Kessler  AT&T  cash_flows  exploitation  FCC  innovation  mature_industries  reinvention  VoIP 
july 2012 by jerryking
Andy Kessler: The Incredible Bain Jobs Machine - WSJ.com
July 16, 2012,| WSJ | By ANDY KESSLER.
The Incredible Bain Jobs Machine
In a competitive economy, $5,000 computers become $500 tablets. Consumers get
Andy_Kessler  Bain  productivity  job_creation 
july 2012 by jerryking
uToronto_data feeds
July 6, 2004

My initial questions are: what sort of data-generating events would be of most interest to U of T's varied stakeholders? As an example. what if U of T was to track in real time the volume of activity at the check out counter at Roberts Library, or the utilization of its parking lots, or the utilization of student computing facilities, or the onlihe registration into specific courses. or the arrival of grant monies? Could the capture, storage and analysis of this information allow individual stakeholders to save time or to make better decisions? Could broadcasting this information improve the perception of the University's commitment to customer service? Would some stakeholders be willing to pay for this information? If so. how much? What about tragic events e.g. alerting stakeholders to a localized disaster’? Can one really charge for that service or is that more of a public good like a free 911 call?
jck  Paul_Kedrosky  Andy_Kessler  hacks  data  uToronto  syndications  real-time  public_goods 
june 2012 by jerryking
The Superball Economy - WSJ.com
March 3, 2003 | WSJ | By ANDY KESSLER.

Design is cheaper. If you look closely, Silicon Valley has very few manufacturers left. Chips are made in Taiwan, boards assembled in China or Thailand. We are now a Valley of designers. And there are lots of programmers and chip-heads and communications protocol folks walking the streets willing to work for much cheaper than three years ago. Office space is plentiful. Word has it there is space available for 50 cents per square foot per month, down from $12.

Bandwidth is cheaper. Global Crossing spent $12 billion on undersea fiber optics that someone is going to buy for $250 million. WorldCom and others have strung the U.S. with more fiber than in Frosted Mini-Wheats. And it won't be just for phone calls. Find companies that use that cheap bandwidth, and you'll find the boom.

Video is cheaper. Napster music sharing was child's play compared to what is next. Hours of video can be captured, stored and shared with today's cheap PCs and broadband lines. Jack Valenti, call your office.

Wireless data is cheaper. The Federal Communications Commission set aside frequencies for hospitals and microwave ovens that might interfere with phones or radar. This Industrial, Scientific and Medical block of spectrum is known as the junk band. While stupid telecom companies overbid for spectrum for third generation 3G cell phone devices, clever engineers figured out how to hop around the junk band -- letting out-of-work programmers surf job listings at Starbucks. Intel is putting these radios in many of their chips.

Distributed computing is cheaper. Google uses 12,000 cheap PCs to log the Internet so you can look up your neighbor and figure out how much she makes. Even distributed programming is cheaper. Microsoft's biggest problem is far-flung programmers creating operating systems like Linux at home in their pajamas. Bill Gates is reportedly all over the Valley asking for help to combat this "Open Source" nuisance.

About the only thing not cheap is capital. Venture capitalists are stingy, the IPO window is closed, and stocks are at four-year lows. Hmmm. Forget that last boom, it's ancient history. Look for new products not possible or too expensive three years ago. Slam down your new Superballs and be ready.
Andy_Kessler  Silicon_Valley  economic_downturn  protocols  recessions  optimism  design  bandwidth  open_source  new_products  distributed_computing  venture_capital  IPOs  inexpensive  cheap_revolution  abundance  economic_dynamism  leaps_of_faith  FCC  overpaid  wireless_spectrum 
may 2012 by jerryking
WSJ: The War for the Web
May 06, 2008 | THE WSJ | Andy Kessler:

The Cloud. The desktop computer isn't going away. But as bandwidth speeds increase, more and more computing can be done in the network of computers sitting in data centers – aka the "cloud."

There, search results can be calculated, companies' payrolls processed, even the complex graphics for video games can be drawn. But it's not cheap. These clouds are multibillion-dollar investments. Google spent $842 million in the last three months on servers, data centers and fiber optics.

Not only hasn't the Internet yet matured, it's becoming an ever-more high stakes game

Today, there are several major clouds: Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, Amazon and smaller players IBM and Sun. Can there be more? Sure, but it would require a business model that could not only pay for it, but could rip it out every few years and modernize it. Google's $20 billion Web advertising business gives it the cash flow to do so. Advantage Google.
Andy_Kessler  cloud_computing  platforms  FAANG  Microsoft  cash_flows  Yahoo!  high-stakes  Google  advertising  data_centers 
october 2011 by jerryking
WSJ: Galleon and the Trouble With Insider Trading
Jan/Feb 2010 | The Corporate Board | Andy Kessler.

Information now travels at the speed of light. The edge to human traders
is mostly gone, arbitraged out by fast computers.
Near-term blips in stocks will always be driven by those with industry
contacts, legal or illegal. The only way to truly beat the market long
term is to use your head, think out long-term trends, figure out where
productivity and therefore wealth is being created in the economy,
and invest alongside it. This might include investing in wireless commerce, gigabit broadband, personalized prescription drugs, oil shale extraction, or electric smart grids that can better allocate power to where it is needed.
**********************************************************************
[January 06, 2020 |WSJ| Tech Will Rule These ’20s, Too by Andy Kessler]
So what’s next? My fundamental rule for finding growth trends is that you need to see viable technologies today, and then predict which ones will get cheaper and better over time. Microprocessors, storage, bandwidth—all still going strong after half a century.
2020s  alpha  Andy_Kessler  arbitrage  beat_the_market  broadband  commoditization_of_information  hydraulic_fracturing  ideas  insider_trading  JCK  long-term  personalization  power_grid  productivity  productivity_payoffs  Raj_Rajaratnam  shale_oil  smart_grid  strategic_thinking  technology  traders  trends  trend_spotting  wealth_creation 
june 2011 by jerryking
Andy Kessler: Is Your Job an Endangered Species? - WSJ.com
* FEBRUARY 17, 2011 | WSJ | Andrew Kessler. Forget blue-collar
and white- collar. There are two types of workers in our economy:
creators and servers. Creators are the ones driving productivity—writing
code, designing chips, creating drugs, running search engines. Servers,
on the other hand, service these creators (and other servers) by
building homes, providing food, offering legal advice, and working at
the Department of Motor Vehicles. Many servers will be replaced by
machines, by computers and by changes in how business operates. It's no
coincidence that Google announced it plans to hire 6,000 workers in
2011.
===============================
See also Daniel Pink's work on countries cultivating skills and knowledge that are not available at a cheaper price in other countries or that cannot be rendered useless by
machines. That is, embracing play and abundance.

============================================
See also Tom Friedman's piece ("We Need a Second Party" - NYTimes.com ) below:

The first is responding to the challenges and opportunities of an era in which globalization and the information technology revolution have dramatically intensified, creating a hyperconnected world. This is a world in which education, innovation and talent will be rewarded more than ever. This is a world in which there will be no more “developed” and “developing countries,” but only HIEs (high-imagination-enabling countries) and LIEs (low-imagination-enabling countries). Adding "imagination"
Andy_Kessler  job_creation  technology  imagination  job_security  creativity  blue-collar  white-collar  creative_types  automation  productivity  endangered  job_search 
february 2011 by jerryking
U.S. Technology Dominance? Think Again
December 30, 2004 | WSJ | Richard Parenteau. Andy Kessler’s
Dec. 23 editorial-page commentary “ We Think, They Sweat “ is a prime
example of the hubris that will cause great loss to the U.S. economy and
loss of employment. He seems to believe that only in the U.S. can
inventions be made and new products designed....Mr. Kessler (and the
rest of us) must realize we are moving away from technology industries
and related employment to an economic model based on services that need a
person’s physical presence. We are fast losing our ability to compete
where the work can move elsewhere. The “thinking” barriers of university
education, experienced labor force, critical technology research
centers, etc. that kept high-prestige, high-pay jobs here in the U.S.
have fallen. Until we start “thinking” about shaping our future
opportunities, given the new facts of life, we are the ones who will be
“sweating.”
America_in_Decline?  Andy_Kessler  barriers_to_entry  college-educated  face2face  high-prestige  high-wage  hubris  in-person  letters_to_the_editor  services 
october 2010 by jerryking
Put Down That Shovel!
Wall Street Journal | by By Andy Kessler. Forget old-fashioned
infrastructure. Here are six government projects to foster a lasting
economic recovery.
Andy_Kessler  infrastructure 
december 2009 by jerryking
A Future for Newspapers - WSJ.com
MAY 24, 2007 | Wall Street Journal | op-ed by ANDY KESSLER

Google, Microsoft and others dropped over $10 billion to buy online ad-delivery companies in the last few weeks alone.
Andy_Kessler  media  newspapers  op-ed  P2P  future  digital_media  business_models  monetization 
april 2009 by jerryking

Copy this bookmark:





to read