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jerryking : economy   61

Stock Market Drops. VCs Hold Partner Meetings. What Happens Next? | TechCrunch
So let me give you the news 2 months early. If the economy and the stock market continue to languish that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

I’ll bet most partners’ meetings this week consisted of looking just a little bit closer at the cash needs of their portfolio companies – making sure they’re “fully funded.” I’ll bet many of them did a review of their “investment pace” as in – how quickly should we be investing. I’ll bet many did a slow roll on deals that might have gotten approved today. Not a “no” but not yet a “yes.”

It’s impossible to sit in a partners’ meeting on a day like today without having an iPhone on watching the stock market free fall and no matter how much of a public tech cheerleader you are – privately I guarantee there was much concern.

If we do head South it will take a few weeks or months until the memos to portfolio companies get published and the Powerpoint presentations get sent out. But the internal conversation started today – trust me. VCs will take a “wait and see” approach right now. Don’t want to call it either way. It’s too early.
economic_downturn  economy  entrepreneurship  history  investors  technology  business  recessions  start_ups  vc  venture_capital  via:sha 
november 2019 by jerryking
How I learnt to love the economic blogosphere
July 27, 2016 | FT.com | Giles Wilkes.

Marginal Revolution
Econlog
Cafe Hayek
Stumbling and Mumbling
Brad Delong
Nick Rowe - Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
Steve Randy Waldman - Interfluidity
Slack Wire - JW Mason

"Sympathetic opinions coalesce in clusters of mutual congratulation (“must read: fellow blogger agreeing with my point of view!”). Dispute is often foully bad-tempered. Opposing positions are usually subject to a three-phased assault of selective quotation, exaggeration and abuse.'..."Lacking an editor to roll their eyes and ask what’s new, many writers soon become stale... Editors exist not only to find interesting pieces to publish but also to hold at bay the unstructured abundance of bilge that we do not need to read."....."...nothing as reliably good as the (eonomics) blogosphere. Some of its advantages are simply practical: free data, synopses of academic papers that the casual dilettante is unlikely to ever come across, a constant sense of what clever people are thinking about. But what is better is how its ungated to-and-fro lets a reader eavesdrop on schools of academic thought in furious argument, rather than just be subject to whatever lecture a professor wishes to deliver. No one learns merely by reading conclusions. It is in the space between rival positions that insight sprouts up, from the synthesis of clashing thoughts. Traditional newspaper columns are delivered as if to an audience of a million, none of whom might reply. The best blogs are the opening salvo in a seminar rather than the last word on the matter. They dumb down less "....."Ancient thinkers such as Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes and Iriving Fisher were deployed not as some sort of academic comfort blanket but because their insights are still fresh, and beautifully written."..."Reading the economic blogosphere in 2008 felt to me like the modern equivalent of watching Friedrich Hayek, Keynes and Friedman quarrelling in front of a graduate class about how FDR should react to the depression. "...."Interfluidity is where to find such brilliancies as “the moral case for NGDP [Nominal Gross Domestic Product] targeting”, a political look at a seemingly technical subject, and “Greece”, a furious examination of how the term “moral hazard” is being traduced in the euro crisis. "..."Waldman’s thoughts go far beyond such a crude duality. After a long discussion of measurement problems, the institutional constraints on innovation and much more, he zeroes in on how governments build institutions to handle the disruption wrought by technological change. In a few hundred words he flips around Cowen’s stance and, instead of looking at the growth of government as the problem, makes a case for its opposite. Technological change creates concentrations of power, which “demands countervailing state action if any semblance of broad-based affluence and democratic government is to be sustained”. We have always needed institutions to divert spending power to those left behind, otherwise social disaster beckons. "....When reading, look for sources with something new to say!
economics  economists  blogosphere  Tyler_Cowen  Paul_Krugman  Adam_Smith  information_overload  social_media  Brad_Delong  blogs  Friedrich_Hayek  Milton_Friedman  political  economy  editors  tough-mindedness  FDR  Great_Depression  insights  John_Maynard_Keynes  sophisticated  disagreements  argumentation  technological_change  innovation_policies  moral_hazards 
july 2016 by jerryking
Lawrence H. Summers: ‘There are many ways of burdening our future’ - The Globe and Mail
RUDYARD GRIFFITHS
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Mar. 20 2015

Lawrence Summers: confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus.

If a young person asked you, ‘How do I thrive in a low-growth economy?’ what would your advice be?

It’s never been more important to be comfortable with technology, to be well-educated, to not just know things, but know how to learn, and develop a set of distinctive skills that employers can value. For people who are able to do those things, the combination of technology and global markets will make this a moment of immense opportunity........There are many ways of burdening the future. One is to borrow money – though, given how low interest rates are, those burdens aren't that great. Another is to defer maintenance. Those costs accumulate at a much greater rate, and that's why I think infrastructure investment is so very important. Another way to burden future generations is to scrimp on education. Another way is to fail to invest in basic scientific research. Another way is to saddle them with huge pension liabilities for those who are working, serving the public today. We are doing all those things.
advice  America_in_Decline?   automation  confidence   deferred_maintenance  downward_mobility   economic_stagnation   economic_stimulus   economy  growth  infrastructure  Larry_Summers   leaps_of_faith    low_growth  new_graduates  Rudyard_Griffiths   skills  slow_growth  technology  the_Great_Decoupling  
march 2015 by jerryking
More Data Can Mean Less Guessing About the Economy - NYTimes.com
By STEVE LOHR
Published: September 7, 2013

measurement shortfall in the small-business sector, and a series of other information gaps in the economy, may be overcome by what experts say is an emerging data revolution — Big Data, in the current catchphrase. The ever-expanding universe of digital signals of behavior, from browsing and buying on the Web to cellphone location data, is grist for potential breakthroughs in economic measurement. It could produce more accurate forecasting and more informed policy-making — more science and less guesswork.... THE economics profession is gearing up to exploit new sources of digital data. In a recent paper, “The Data Revolution and Economic Analysis,” two Stanford economists, Liran Einav and Jonathan Levin, concluded that “there is little doubt, at least in our minds, that over the next decades ‘big data’ will change the landscape of economic policy and economic research.”

At Intuit, the small-business data portray a sector that was “hurt much more than big business by the recession and its recovery has been far worse,” says Ms. Woodward, the economic consultant. Over the last three and a half years, payroll employment for all companies has increased 6.9 percent, while small-business employment has risen far less, just 1.9 percent. Hiring among the small companies, though still sluggish, has inched ahead in the last three months.
data  Steve_Lohr  massive_data_sets  Intuit  information_sources  small_business  measurements  Freshbooks  economy  Erik_Brynjolfsson  economics  indicators  real-time  forecasting  economic_data  information_gaps  signals  economists  data_driven 
september 2013 by jerryking
Playing it safe puts the economy at risk - The Globe and Mail
TODD HIRSCH

Special to The Globe and Mail

Last updated Thursday, Apr. 11 2013

Risk management is now a quasi-science, with positive and negative consequences. The positive is that companies are now better equipped to gauge the level of risk associated with any particular investment. But the negative is that, too often, risk management hampers innovation and creativity.

What should be a tool to make better decisions has sometimes led companies to make no decisions at all. Risk management should liberate companies. Instead, it has enslaved some.
risks  risk-management  innovation  economy  creativity  Todd_Hirsch  risk-aversion  risk-avoidance  playing_it_safe 
april 2013 by jerryking
Some speculative truth about Canada’s new gun crime - The Globe and Mail
Jul. 20 2012 | The Globe and Mail | James Sheptycki.

So we have a poisonous mixture: A pistolized culture of masculinity. A socio-economic structure of exclusion. An illicit opportunity structure in the market for illegal drugs. And rising levels of gun availability on the streets.

There is probably even more to it than that, since society’s reactions are often one-sided. Some people advocate cracking down on the drug economy. Some advocate drug decriminalization. Some say banning guns or bullets will work, or that we need stiffer penalties. Others want better social programs.

These policy struggles, playing out in the context of fiscal crisis, are most often discussed in hyper-masculine terms. Looking for the cheapest bang for the buck, we end up “combatting gangs” or “fighting crime” while going to “war on drugs.”

These amount to attempts at repression. But repression does not solve problems; it displaces them. This suggests that the solutions become part of the problem.

This issue is extremely complex, but these speculations are the start of a plausible explanation to what has been taking place in Canada for some time. But they are only a start.

There is a demand for quick and easy solutions, and the solutions had better be cost-effective and inexpensive. There is impatience when the response from academic criminologists is for further research.

But in the face of such complexity, and to test our understanding, Canadians need to demand evidence-based policymaking. Rationality and reason are required, as well as political will. Gut instinct is no good.
criminality  drugs  economy  evidence_based  guns  gut_feelings  illicit  masculinity  policymaking  political_will  research  social_exclusion  Toronto  violence 
july 2012 by jerryking
Al Gore and David Blood: A Manifesto for Sustainable Capitalism - WSJ.com
DECEMBER 14, 2011 | WSJ | By AL GORE AND DAVID BLOOD.

A Manifesto for Sustainable Capitalism
How businesses can embrace environmental, social and governance metrics.
capitalism  business  economy  future 
february 2012 by jerryking
Finding a Post-Crash Economic Model - WSJ.com
NOVEMBER 30, 2010

Economists' Grail: A Post-Crash Model
By MARK WHITEHOUSE
business  economics  economy  models  psychology 
july 2011 by jerryking
Why We Need Free Public Libraries More Than Ever
July 29, 2011 | The Atlantic | Keith Michael Fiels, the executive director of the American Library Association.
libraries  advocacy  reading  economy  community  democracy 
july 2011 by jerryking
To Boost the Economy, Help the Self-Employed -
June 7, 2011 BusinessWeek By Richard Greenwald
Despite their importance to our economic health, we impede nearly
one-third of our workforce by making so-called freelancers, contractors,
and consultants play by outdated rules.

Despite their increasing importance to the economy, the growth of these
freelancers' businesses is stymied by our tax and labor
codes....Freelancers Shoulder All Risks

Today, the fast-growing freelance workforce is shouldering costs and
risks that were formerly borne by companies. The self-employed can't get
unemployment insurance or file for workman's compensation. They aren't
covered by most federal or state employee labor laws, leaving them
little recourse but to spend precious time and money in small claims
court when they aren't paid.

Worse, the self-employed are taxed as if they're medium-sized employers,
but they can't deduct health-insurance premiums and other expenses that
big companies can deduct.
freelancing  challenges  economy  self-employment  gig_economy  policymaking 
july 2011 by jerryking
Inside the App Economy -
October 22, 2009 | BusinessWeek | By Douglas MacMillan, Peter
Burrows and Spencer E. Ante. Beyond the goofy games is a world of
useful programs that's making fortunes and changing the rules of
business
mobile_applications  economy  ecosystems  Apple  App_Store 
july 2011 by jerryking
The Freelance Economy
11.16.09 | Forbes.com - Magazine Article | Keren Blankfeld,
Steinberg works 30 to 40 hours a week. But along with millions of other
contractors, she may not show up on the radar of the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics, which compiles unemployment statistics by surveying
households and counting pay stubs. No one knows how many freelancers,
part-timers and consultants there are--the Government Accountability
Office took a stab in 2006, guesstimating that the group made up 30% of
all workers--much less how many escape the notice of the BLS. "It's
difficult to track, and is often misclassified or not accounted for by
the Department of Labor," says Sarah Horowitz, director of the
Freelancers Union in Brooklyn, N.Y. One thing is certain: The shape of
the so-called informal economy is changing.
freelancing  economy  statistics  GAO  BLS  informal_economy  Freshbooks  gig_economy 
june 2011 by jerryking
MEASURING THE DIGITAL ECONOMY
Thomas L. Mesenbourg
Assistant Director for Economic Programs
U.S. Bureau of the Census
4700 Silver Hill Road
Room 2069/3
Suitland, Md. 20746
tmesenbo@census.gov
economy  digital_economy  filetype:pdf  media:document  measurements 
may 2011 by jerryking
The Billion Prices Project and the Value of Data
May 30, 2011. | : The New Yorker | by James Surowiecki. A new
venture called the Billion Prices Project may help change that. The
B.P.P., which was designed by the M.I.T. economists Alberto Cavallo and
Roberto Rigobon, gathers price data not via survey but, rather, by
continuously scouring the Web for prices of online goods around the
world. (In the U.S., it collects more than half a million prices
daily—five times the number that the government looks at.) Using this
information, Cavallo and Rigobon have succeeded in building what amounts
to the first real-time inflation index. The B.P.P. tells us what’s
happening now, not what was happening a month ago.

Read more
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2011/05/30/110530ta_talk_surowiecki#ixzz1NAObusGP
James_Surowiecki  data  economy  economics  inflation  CPI  statistics  MIT  pricing  digital_economy  massive_data_sets 
may 2011 by jerryking
The Future of Manufacturing is Local - NYTimes.com
March 27, 2011 | | By ALLISON ARIEFF. Mark Dwight, CEO of
Rickshaw Bagworks, initially started SFMade with the intention of
creating a brand identity for the products produced within San Francisco
city limits, something he calls “geographic ingredient branding.” More
easily understood as something akin to terroir, geographic ingredient
branding emphasizes “pride of place,” which runs deep in cities like San
Francisco and New York. “I saw this as a way to ‘brand’ the history,
culture, personality and natural beauty of our city as a means to
uniquely differentiate our local manufacturers,” says Dwight. “I coined
the term ‘geographic ingredient branding’ as an emulation of successful
technology ingredient branding campaigns such as ‘Intel Inside.’”
manufacturers  local  future  economy  hyperlocal  San_Francisco  branding  cities  geography  pride  geographic_ingredient_branding  brand_identity 
march 2011 by jerryking
For U.S. foreign policy, it should be all about the economy - The Globe and Mail
Dec. 03, 2010 |G&M| CHRYSTIA FREELAND. The most
significant revelation from WikiLeaks isn’t what is in the documents –
it`s what is missing from them. The financial crisis of 2008, and its
agonizing aftermath, changed the world profoundly. It didn’t change the
State Dept. The most important take-away from the Wikileaks is that the
U.S. needs a new foreign policy paradigm to deal with the post-crisis
world. The starting pt. for that paradigm must be to put the economy at
the heart of foreign policy. Some of the savviest wise men in the U.S.
are making that pt., in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, with two
essays on the importance of the economy for statecraft.....The country
needs a new paradigm because: (1) it has run out of $ to be the world’s
police officer; (2) the recession requires everyone – including
diplomats – to pitch in to put the country back to work; and (3)
national security & int. relations – the classic concerns of
diplomacy – are now driven by economic concerns.
foreign_policy  Chrystia_Freeland  U.S.foreign_policy  economy  economic_policy  WikiLeaks  diplomacy  statecraft 
december 2010 by jerryking
The Gig Economy
January 12, 2009 | The Daily Beast | by Tina Brown. No one I
know has a job anymore. They've got Gigs.

Gigs: a bunch of free-floating projects, consultancies, and part-time
bits and pieces they try and stitch together to make what they refer to
wryly as “the Nut”—the sum that allows them to hang on to the apartment,
the health-care policy, the baby sitter, and the school fees.
freelancing  economy  jobs  trends  future  business  Tina_Brown 
october 2010 by jerryking
The Unwisdom of Crowds
12/22/2008 | The Weekly Standard Vol. 014, Issue 14 | by
Christopher Caldwell. Financial panics still require what Walter
Bagehot prescribed--that practical men violate their own principles.
Common sense is often not much use in a financial panic. This was the
great discovery of Walter Bagehot, the prolific 19th-century essayist
and journalist, who was editor of the Economist from 1860 to 1877. (His
name rhymes with gadget.) in the so-called Anglo-Saxon world, Bagehot's
book still provides the bedrock of policy thinking during financial
emergencies, including our present one.
bailouts  banking  banks  capitalism  economics  economy  finance  financial_crises  financial_history  financial_journalism  panics  policymaking  politicaleconomy  prolificacy  Walter_Bagehot 
october 2009 by jerryking
Ageing in the rich world: The end of retirement | The Economist
Ageing in the rich world
The end of retirement

Jun 25th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Trends  aging  economy  future  retirement 
june 2009 by jerryking
Emerging Patterns in the Crisis Economy - Vineet Nayar - Harvard Business Review
Vineet Nayar Inverted Wisdom rss RSS Feed
Emerging Patterns in the Crisis Economy

10:30 AM Thursday May 14, 2009

Tags:Economy, Financial crisis, Recession
pattern_recognition  economy  economic_downturn  recessions  hbr 
june 2009 by jerryking
The Economic Agenda
September-October 2008 |Harvard Magazine | by Lawrence H. Summers.
Harvard  Larry_Summers  economy 
may 2009 by jerryking
New Unrest on Campus as Donors Rebel - WSJ.com
APRIL 23, 2009 | The Wall Street Journal | by JOHN HECHINGER
donors  economy  endowments  recessions 
may 2009 by jerryking
Economy: How Libraries Are Becoming Career Centers
Apr 6, 2009 | Newsweek Web Exclusive | By Eva Gronowska

As a librarian, my world was always about books. But in this economy, I've evolved into a career counselor.
libraries  career  ECONOMY  job  economic_downturn 
april 2009 by jerryking
1688 and All That - WSJ.com
May 29, 2007 | Wall Street Journal | Book review by Andrew
Roberts of Our First Revolution by Michael Barone.

Everything that flowed from the Whig victory of 1688--England's Glorious
Revolution--limited government, the Bank of England, tradable national
debt, triennial Parliaments, mercantilism, free enterprise, an
aggressively anti-French foreign policy, the union with Scotland,
eventually the Hanoverian Succession and the Industrial
Revolution--combined to make the English-speaking peoples powerful.
history  Bank_of_England  United_Kingdom  democracy  economy  revolution  glorious  the_Enlightenment  england  books  book_reviews 
april 2009 by jerryking
A Tale of Several Cities: What explains why Boston flourishes while Philadelphia flounders?
Friday, October 20, 2006 12:01 A.M. EDT, WSJ op-ed by JULIA VITULLO-MARTIN.

Why isn't Philadelphia Boston? Why does Boston prosper, people and businesses outbidding one another to get in, while Philadelphia languishes, with acres of vacant and underused property announcing the lack of local demand? .......The answers are not to be found in conventional 20th-century analysis, which emphasized the seemingly unsolvable urban crisis: the decline of industrial jobs, the burdens of excessive taxation, the inevitability of racial tensions and the dominance of geography....At least part of the answer stems from their underlying cultures..... In his "Puritan Boston and Quaker Philadelphia" (1979), E. Digby Baltzell argued that Boston Brahmins, with their belief in authority and leadership, embraced a sense of responsibility for civic life, while Philadelphia Gentlemen, with their inward but judgmental Quaker ways were deeply unconcerned about their city's welfare.....cultural analysis -- long out of fashion as too soft (as as opposed to econometrics) or too racist (who is to say that one culture is better than another?) -- is due for a comeback. .....The old answer of urban success was deterministic: taxes and geography.....as the historian Richard Wade has noted for years, against the tide of his field, this theory has its flaws: If the sheer excellence of a harbor truly determined a city's fate, then the greatest city in America would be Upper Sandusky, Ohio....What flourishing cities often have in common, instead, are two crucial cultural characteristics: combativeness and cunning.....That same energy contributes to New York's cyclical boom-and-bust nature, regularly pushing speculation beyond the limits of an exuberant boom, thereby encouraging a bust. ....Cunning and combativeness, however, often restore cities financially without making them many new friends, except, perhaps, for the young -- who, for the past two decades, have been returning in great numbers to the old neighborhoods long ago abandoned by their parents and grandparents....But what makes cities successful -- or even just lovable -- can seldom be quantified.
boom-to-bust  municipalities  Toronto  ECONOMY  city  cities  Boston  Philadelphia  gentrification  cultural_analysis  cultural_values  leadership  Boston_Brahmins  bubbles 
february 2009 by jerryking
Nouriel Roubini Says Nationalizing the Banks Is the Market-Friendly Solution - WSJ.com
FEBRUARY 21, 2009 | Wall Street Journal | Interview of Nouriel
Roubini by TUNKU VARADARAJAN. Roubini believes that "The problem is that
in the bubble years, everyone becomes a cheerleader, including the
media. This is when journalists should be asking tough questions...
there was a failure there. More financial and business journalists, in
the good years, should have asked, 'Wait a moment, if this man, or this
firm, is making a 100% return a year, how do they do it? Is it because
they're smarter than everybody else . . . or because they're taking so
much risk they'll be bankrupt two years down the line?' In the bubble
years, no one asked the hard questions. A good journalist has to be one
who, in good times, challenges the conventional wisdom. If you don't do
that, you fail in one of your duties."
===============================================
a healthy dose of reality and skepticism is always a good idea.
economics  crisis  ECONOMY  finance  skepticism  nourielroubini  banking  recessions  bailouts  journalists  journalism  nationalizations  hard_questions  financial_journalism  5_W’s  questions 
february 2009 by jerryking
Arts Organizations Turn to Him for Advice - WSJ.com
FEBRUARY 18, 2009, WSJ interview with WILLIAM TRIPLETT. Michael
Kaiser, president of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing
Arts, announces a free consulting program for any troubled arts
organizations in the U.S. Kaiser authored, "The Art of the
Turnaround: Creating and Maintaining Healthy Arts Organizations,"
arts  cultural_institutions  economy  leadership  management_consulting  marketing  nonprofit  performing_arts  troubleshooting  turnarounds 
february 2009 by jerryking
In Africa, Outages Stifle a Boom - WSJ.com
APRIL 17, 2008 By SARAH CHILDRESS. Frequent and disruptive
power outages plague about 35 of sub-Saharan Africa's 47 countries.
Outages are costing African economies as much as 2% of their gross
domestic product, according to World Bank estimates
Africa  outages  economy  infrastructure  shortages  GDP  electric_power 
february 2009 by jerryking
When Donors Can't Keep Their Pledges - WSJ.com
JANUARY 27, 2009 WSJ column by SHELLY BANJO. Some
philanthropists are finding themselves unable to fulfill multi-year
pledges or continue annual contributions to charities they support.
Articles offers solutions.
philanthropy  charities  fundraising  economy  Shelly_Banjo  benefactors 
january 2009 by jerryking

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