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jerryking : joseph_schumpeter   8

Venture capital investors should harpoon more whales
February 3, 2020 | Financial Times | by John Thornhill.

*VC: An American History by Tom Nicholas.
* The worry for Silicon Valley is that the impulse for creative destruction is now fading
* It is easy to be rude about the venture capital industry. So here goes. The criticism runs that the VC sector is full of too many over-funded, ill-disciplined chancers who pass off hype for reality, groupthink for insight and luck for good judgment.....What’s more, a staggering 95 per cent of VC firms fail to make a decent enough return to justify the risks their investors run......the current mindset of the VC industry is responsible for the slowdown in new business formation and lack of economic dynamism in the US. All too often, addicted to capital-light, metric-heavy software businesses, VCs are failing to bet big enough on the breakthrough technologies that tackle our biggest challenges, such as climate change or cancer.........Katie Rae, chief executive and managing partner of The Engine, a Boston-based “tough tech” venture fund, says that many VCs have lost sight of their original purpose......VCs were all about funding tech breakthroughs but that has got lost,” ...... “A lot of VCs look more like private equity companies that do not want to lose any money so they end up backing dog-walking apps rather than quantum computing.”......Historically, the best venture capitalists have performed a vital capitalistic function: turning seemingly outlandish ideas and transformative technologies into everyday realities. Semiconductors, recombinant insulin and internet search engines have all come to market largely thanks to VC backing........“The VC industry is cut-throat. .....It provides the capital and expertise for start-ups to succeed.”.......In VC: An American History, Tom Nicholas traces VC’s high-risk, high-reward mentality back to the 19th-century whaling industry, which developed a novel form of venture financing. The idea was to back an expert captain who could fit out a robust ship, hire the best crew and endure an average of 3.6 years at sea. On landing a whale, the captain would return investors’ money several times over. But many ships returned empty-handed or sunk.........the pattern of financial returns made by Gideon Allen & Sons, the smartest backers of whaling ventures, were almost identical to those achieved by Sequoia Capital, one of the best VC firms operating today..........one of the striking features of the subsequent evolution of the VC industry.......was how contingent it was on time, circumstance and people. The west coast model of VC investing, owed an enormous amount to massive government investments in technology during the cold war, the expansion of world-beating universities in California and the emergence of some remarkable entrepreneurs and visionary investors, such as Arthur Rock, Tom Perkins and Don Valentine.......The worry for Silicon Valley is that some of that Schumpeterian impulse for creative destruction is now fading. One argument has it that Silicon Valley is becoming increasingly “corporatised” with Big Tech firms, such as Google, Facebook and Apple, championing the mantra that “big is beautiful” in the face of emerging competition from China.

The benign view is that Big Tech may be internalising much of the innovation once carried out by start-ups; the malign interpretation is that Cupertino, California [JCK: that is, "Big Tech"] is snuffing out smaller rivals.......

“Silicon Valley is overdue a disruption. It is not a hotbed of start-ups any more,” ..........Metaphorically, at least, the VC industry needs to get back in the business of funding wildly ambitious entrepreneurs intent on harpooning some more whales.
19th_century  Arthur_Rock  big_bets  Big_Tech  books  breakthroughs  broad-based_scientific_enquiry  cancers  climate_change  creative_destruction  disruption  Don_Valentine  entrepreneur  finance  financing  fundamental_discoveries  funding  HBS  high-risk  high-reward  innovation  investors  Joseph_Schumpeter  moonshots  public_investments  semiconductors  Sequoia  Silicon_Valley  thinking_big  Tom_Perkins  tough_tech  whaling  vc  venture_capital  visionaries 
12 days ago by jerryking
Artificial intelligence and jobs: What’s left for humanity will require uniquely human skills - The Globe and Mail
July 27, 2018 |CONTRIBUTED TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL by STEVE WOODS.

Where should we look for this final archipelago of human employment? The best place to start is deep within ourselves. As much as we pride ourselves on advanced skills such as mathematics and chess, humans are not born innately aware of algebra or checkmate. We are, instead, a social species. We are born innately aware of others, their reactions to us and our relationships with them. Removing a person from a social environment is so harmful that it is deemed to be a form of torture and is banned by the Geneva Convention.

When we attempt to use machines to replace the role of humans in our social lives, the response is immediate and negative......we, as a society and as a species, don’t want AI to replace our social interactions and our relationships. It’s a part of what makes us human and it’s a part that we intend to keep.....areas where we don’t desire AI replacement: relationships, trust, guidance, caring, nurturing and social interaction are traits that these post-AI jobs will share.
artificial_intelligence  automation  relationships  emotions  emotional_intelligence  empathy  EQ  humanity  creative_destruction  Joseph_Schumpeter  character_traits  AlphaGo  IBM_Watson 
july 2018 by jerryking
The Shkreli Syndrome: Youthful Trouble, Tech Success, Then a Fall
SEPT. 14, 2017 | The New York Times | By NOAM SCHEIBER.

Entrepreneurs, it turns out, do not just move fast and break things, as Facebook’s longtime credo put it. They are also more likely than others to cross the line.

According to research by the economists Ross Levine and Yona Rubinstein, people who become entrepreneurs are not only apt to have had high self-esteem while growing up (and to have been white, male and financially secure). They are also more likely than others to have been intelligent people who engaged in illicit activities in their teenage years and early 20s.

And those indiscretions have not been limited to using drugs or skipping school, but have included antisocial acts like taking property by force or stealing goods worth less than $50...... the question is whether youthful rule-breaking might have foreshadowed not only their rise, but also their fall........It is perhaps not surprising that longtime rebels like Mr. Kalanick — who has boasted of being among the first peer-to-peer file-sharing “pirates” when he was in his early 20s — would be inclined toward entrepreneurship. It is a calling that, in the often repeated narrative of the economist Joseph Schumpeter, rewards those who upend the established order......a phenomenon known as “moral disengagement,” in which people rationalize behavior at odds with their own principles. A teenager who steals a pair of sneakers, for example, may tell himself that the manufacturer was overcharging consumers.

Studies have shown that such moral disengagement frequently enables wrongdoing, and that it can survive into adulthood. According to Professor Steinberg, entrepreneurs who are prone to moral disengagement may continue to break actual rules, not just metaphorical ones......These days, many venture capitalists spend as much time assessing what kind of troublemaker an entrepreneur may be as they do assessing a business’s revolutionary potential.

“We do want them to be rule-breakers,” said David Golden, who helps run the venture capital arm of Revolution, the investment firm of the AOL co-founder Steve Case. “We don’t want them to be felons.”
Mark_Zuckerberg  entrepreneurship  founders  piracy  Travis_Kalanick  rogue_actors  rule_breaking  Steve_Case  unconventional_thinking  Joseph_Schumpeter  ethics  troublemakers 
september 2017 by jerryking
Get Ready for Technological Upheaval by Expecting the Unimagined
SEPT. 2, 2017 | The New York Times | By SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN.

New technologies are rattling the economy on all fronts. While the predictions are specific and dire, bigger changes are surely coming. Clearly, we need to adjust for the turbulence ahead.

But we may be preparing in the wrong way.

Rather than planning for the specific changes we imagine, it is better to prepare for the unimagined — for change itself.

Preparing for the unknown is not as hard as it may seem, though it implies fundamental shifts in our policies on education, employment and social insurance.

* Education. Were we to plan for specific changes, we would start revamping curriculums to include skills we thought would be rewarded in the future. E.g., computer programming might become even more of a staple in high schools than it already is. Maybe that will prove to be wise and we will have a more productive work force. But perhaps technology evolves quickly enough that in a few decades we talk to, rather than program, computers. In that case, millions of people would have invested in a skill as outdated as precise penmanship. Instead, rather than changing what we teach, we could change WHEN we teach...... our current practice of learning early [and hopefully] benefitting for a lifetime — makes sense only in a world where the useful skills stay constant. Human capital, like technology, needs refreshing, we have to restructure our institutions so people acquire education later in life. Not merely need programs for niche populations or circumstances, expensive and short executive-education programs or brief excursions like TED talks. Instead we need the kind of in-depth education and training people receive routinely at age 13.
* Social Insurance. Economic upheaval at the macro level means turmoil and instability at the personal level. A lifetime of work will be a lifetime of change, moving between firms, jobs, careers and cities. Each move has financial and personal costs: It might involve going without a paycheck, looking for new housing, finding a new school district or adjusting to a new vocation. We cannot expect to create a vibrant and flexible overall economy unless we make these shifts as painless as possible. We need a fresh round of policy innovation focused on creating a safety net that gives workers the peace of mind — and the money — to move deftly when circumstances change.....current policies do nothing to protect the most vulnerable from the costs of all this destruction. We resist letting factories close because we worry about what will become of the people who work there. But if we had a social insurance system that allowed workers to move fluidly between jobs, we could comfortably allow firms to follow their natural life and death cycle.

.....other ways of preparing for upheaval? We should broaden the current conversation — centered on drones, the end of work or the prospect of super-intelligent algorithms governing the world — to include innovative proposals for handling the unexpected......One problem is that social policy may seem boring compared with the wonderfully evocative story arcs telling us where current technologies might be heading......The safest prediction is that reality will outstrip our imaginations. So let us craft our policies not just for what we expect but for what will surely surprise us.
tumult  unimaginable  expectations  turbulence  Joseph_Schumpeter  innovation_policies  human_capital  education  safety_nets  job_search  creative_destruction  lifelong  life_long_learning  surprises  economists  improbables  personal_economy  preparation  unexpected  readiness 
september 2017 by jerryking
Davos diary: A new angst settles over the world's elites - The Globe and Mail
John Stackhouse - Editor-in-Chief

Davos, Switzerland — The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Jan. 24 2014,

Another machine revolution is upon us. There is a new wave forming behind the past decade’s surge of mobile technology, with disruptive technologies like driverless cars and automated personal medical assistants that will not only change lifestyles but rattle economies and change pretty much every assumption about work....For all the talk of growth, though, the global economy is also in an employment morass that has the smartest people in the room humbled and anxious. The rebound is not producing jobs and pay increases to the degree that many of them expected. Most governments are tapped out, fiscally, and can only call on the private sector – “the innovators” – to do more....If a 3-D printer can kneecap your construction industry, or an AI-powered sensor put to pasture half your nurses, what hope is there for old-fashioned job creation?

The new digital divide – it used to be about access, now it’s about employment – stands to further isolate the millions of long-term jobless people in Europe and North America, many of whom have left the workforce and won’t be getting calls when jobs come back.... Say’s Law--a theory that says successful products create their own demand.
creating_demand  Davos  John_Stackhouse  Say’s_Law  Eric_Schmidt  Google  McKinsey  creative_destruction  Joseph_Schumpeter  unemployment  machine_learning  disruption  autonomous_vehicles  bots  chatbots  artificial_intelligence  personal_assistants  virtual_assistants  job_creation  digital_disruption  joblessness  fault_lines  global_economy 
january 2014 by jerryking
The Industrialized Revolution
December 19, 2007 | Fast Company | By Polly LaBarre.

1986
McKinsey & Co. partner Richard Foster invokes Schumpeter in Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage, and elaborates on the concept of technology S-curves and the “discontinuities” that turn the cash cows of leading companies into dead meat.
books  cash_cows  Clayton_Christensen  discontinuities  disruption  Innosight  innovation  Joseph_Schumpeter  leadership  S-curves 
april 2012 by jerryking
Marc Andreessen on Why Software Is Eating the World - WSJ.com
My own theory is that we are in the middle of a dramatic and broad technological and economic shift in which software companies are poised to take over large swathes of the economy.

More and more major businesses and industries are being run on software and delivered as online services—from movies to agriculture to national defense......Software is also eating much of the value chain of industries that are widely viewed as primarily existing in the physical world. In today's cars, software runs the engines, controls safety features, entertains passengers, guides drivers to destinations and connects each car to mobile, satellite and GPS networks. The days when a car aficionado could repair his or her own car are long past, due primarily to the high software content. The trend toward hybrid and electric vehicles will only accelerate the software shift—electric cars are completely computer controlled. And the creation of software-powered driverless cars is already under way at Google and the major car companies.....Companies in every industry need to assume that a software revolution is coming. This includes even industries that are software-based today. Great incumbent software companies like Oracle and Microsoft are increasingly threatened with irrelevance by new software offerings like Salesforce.com and Android (especially in a world where Google owns a major handset maker).

In some industries, particularly those with a heavy real-world component such as oil and gas, the software revolution is primarily an opportunity for incumbents. But in many industries, new software ideas will result in the rise of new Silicon Valley-style start-ups that invade existing industries with impunity. Over the next 10 years, the battles between incumbents and software-powered insurgents will be epic. [the great game] Joseph Schumpeter, the economist who coined the term "creative destruction," would be proud.....Finally, the new companies need to prove their worth. They need to build strong cultures, delight their customers, establish their own competitive advantages and, yes, justify their rising valuations. No one should expect building a new high-growth, software-powered company in an established industry to be easy. It's brutally difficult.
Marc_Andreessen  Andreessen_Horowitz  software  physical_economy  creative_destruction  Joseph_Schumpeter  software_is_eating_the_world  delighting_customers  physical_world  high-growth  Silicon_Valley  competitive_advantage  incumbents  the_great_game  electric_cars  cyberphysical 
august 2011 by jerryking

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