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jerryking : moore's_law   23

Where Computing Is Headed—Beyond Quantum
Feb. 4, 2020 | WSJ | By Sara Castellanos.

Startups are coming up with new ways to make computer chips and store huge amounts of data in DNA........dozens of companies gaining interest from investors and corporations because of their novel approaches to computing. They are using light, quantum physics, molecular biology and new design methods to build chips and create data-storage techniques for future computing demands.
data  DNA  engineering  fundamental_discoveries  good_enough  high-risk  innovation  light  molecular_biology  Moore's_Law  novel  quantum_computing  semiconductors  software  start_ups  technology  up-and-comers  vc  venture_capital 
17 days ago by jerryking
The Chip That Changed the World
Aug. 26, 2018 | WSJ | By Andy Kessler.

Integrated circuits are the greatest invention since fire—or maybe indoor plumbing. The world would be unrecognizable without them. They have bent the curve of history, influencing the economy, government and general human flourishing. The productivity unleashed from silicon computing power disrupted or destroyed everything in its path: retail, music, finance, advertising, travel, manufacturing, health care, energy. It’s hard to find anything Kilby’s invention hasn’t changed.

Now what? Despite the routine media funeral for Moore’s Law, it’s not dead yet. But it is old.......Brace yourself. When Moore’s Law finally gives up the ghost, productivity and economic growth will roll over too—unless. The world needs another Great Bend, another Kilbyesque warp in the cosmos, to drive the economy.

One hope is quantum computing, which isn’t limited by binary 1s and 0s, but instead uses qubits (quantum bits) based on Schrödinger’s quantum mechanics. .......Maybe architecture will keep the growth alive. Twenty years ago, Google created giant parallel computer systems to solve the search problem. The same may be seen for artificial intelligence, which is in its infancy. ......Energy is being disrupted but not fast enough. Where is that battery breakthrough? .........Biocomputing is another fascinating area. We already have gene editing in the form of Crispr. New food supplies and drugs may change how humans live and not die and bend the curve. But.... anything involving biology is painfully slow. ....Computing takes nanoseconds; biology takes days, weeks, even years. Breakthroughs may still come, but experiments take so long that progress lags behind. Still, I’d watch this space closely.
Andy_Kessler  artificial_intelligence  breakthroughs  broad-based_scientific_enquiry  Crispr  game_changers  gene_editing  Gordon_Moore  hard_to_find  history  inventions  miniaturization  molecular_biology  Moore's_Law  Nobel_Prizes  quantum_computing  semiconductors 
august 2018 by jerryking
The future is quantum: solution to the world’s critical problems
Jeremy O’Brien

MARCH 24, 2017

Being able to perform accurate simulation of how molecules behave can help to solve critical problems confronting society in energy, climate change, healthcare, etc.....conventional computers are not only currently inadequate but will forever remain so. In the past, we could rely on regular increases in computing power. The number of transistors within computer chips has impressively doubled every two years, a trend known as Moore’s Law. But just when we’d like to rely on it most, Moore’s Law has come to an end. In 2015, Tom Conte, president of the IEEE's Computer Society, stated prophetically that “Moore’s Law is reaching its limits: the doubling of transistors per unit area is slowing down . . . and is projected to end at seven nanometres circa 2020.”....Using conventional computers, exact simulation of molecules with just a few hundred atoms could take longer than the age of the universe....quantum computing offers a drastically different approach to computing that is profound both in terms of the fundamental laws of physics it exploits, and the transformations it will bring about in our lives, society and economy.....conventional computers represent each “bit” of information — the logical zero or one — in the on-off state of a transistor. But by exercising careful control over some of the smallest constituents of our universe, quantum computers instead work with “qubits”. A standard bit can only exist in the zero or the one state, whereas a qubit can adopt a uniquely quantum superposition of the two logical states....Any carefully controlled system obeying the laws of quantum mechanics can be used to form a qubit; popular choices are trapped ions, superconducting circuits and single particles of light, known as photons.....

The quantum advantage

Many problems evading conventional computers are well suited to a quantum computer — molecular simulation being a prime example. A large fraction of today’s supercomputing power is used to perform molecular and materials simulations. But these simulations are limited to small systems and imperfect approximations. Although precisely simulating the quantum mechanical behaviour of molecules is insurmountable for a conventional computer, a quantum computer is perfectly suited to represent these kinds of intrinsically “quantum” problems.... is one of the most compelling features of quantum computing: it’s a technology that expands the way we can think, and the extent of the possible solutions we can investigate.

But the benefit of quantum computers is not limited to molecular applications. So-called quantum algorithms allow us to come up with powerful approaches to seemingly “unquantum” problems. For example, quantum algorithms can search databases faster, perform pattern matching (important in genomics and genetic engineering, for example), and even perform computer graphics operations more efficiently.

These algorithms are hard to come up with, because they require us to think in a quantum way, but as quantum technologies become more ubiquitous and we become more proficient at thinking like this, we can expect more and more to emerge. There are even quantum algorithms that can perform key elements of machine-learning tasks, which are vital for big data business analytics, and in growing areas of artificial intelligence such as self-driving cars.
quantum_computing  Moore's_Law  semiconductors  physics  problem_solving 
january 2018 by jerryking
Prepare for a New Supercycle of Innovation - WSJ
By John Michaelson
May 9, 2017

Things are about to change. Consider information technology. Today’s enterprise IT systems are built on platforms dating from the 1970s to the 1990s. These systems are now horrendously expensive to operate, prone to catastrophic crashes, and unable to ensure data security. The cloud only made this worse by increasing complexity.

Corporate CEOs complain that they are unable to get the data they need. These rickety systems cannot easily accommodate data mining and artificial intelligence. Evidence of their deficiencies is seen daily. The New York Stock Exchange stops trading for hours. Yahoo acknowledges the compromise of one billion user accounts. Airline reservation systems go down repeatedly. The pain level for users is becoming intolerable.

Each decade for the past 60 years, we have seen a thousand-fold increase in world-wide processing power, bandwidth and storage. At the same time, costs have fallen by a factor of 10,000. Advances in these platforms, in themselves, do not produce innovation. But they facilitate the development and deployment of entirely new applications that take advantage of these advances. [jk: The Republican intellectual George F. Gilder taught us that we should husband resources that are scarce and costly, but can waste resources that are abundant and cheap] Amazing new applications are almost never predictable. They come from human creativity (jk: human ingenuity). That is one reason they almost never come from incumbent companies. But once barriers to innovation are lowered, new applications follow.
10x  artificial_intelligence  CEOs  creativity  cyber_security  data_mining  economic_downturn  flash_crashes  George_Gilder  Gilder's  Law  innovation  history  human_ingenuity  incumbents  IT  legacy_tech  Moore's_Law  NYSE 
may 2017 by jerryking
Inside the mind of a venture capitalist | McKinsey & Company
August 2016 | McK | Steve Jurvetson is a partner at Draper Fisher Jurvetson. Michael Chui,
(1) entrepreneurs who have infectious enthusiasm.
(2) sector of the economy believed to be experiencing rapid growth/ massive disruptive change.
(3) wide range of industries, from synthetic biology to rockets to electric cars to a variety of sectors that weren’t ripe for venture investment in prior decades but now are becoming software businesses.
(4) attributes and people somewhat similar to what I look for in the team at work: enough self-confidence to be humble about what it’s proposing and respect for the team over individuals
How should large companies respond? The large companies that are most exciting to me are the ones that innovate outside their core. big companies need to innovate outside their core businesses. The biggest start-up: Space.
Steve_Jurvetson  McKinsey  DFJ  venture_capital  vc  disruption  space  large_companies  software  core_businesses  Moore's_Law  machine_learning  passions  Elon_Musk  accelerated_lifecycles  space_travel  innovation  self-confidence  high-growth  humility  teams 
august 2016 by jerryking
Computing Beyond Moore’s Law - The CIO Report - WSJ
Apr 8, 2016 GUEST VOICES
Computing Beyond Moore’s Law
Moore's_Law  software  evolution  cloud_computing  Marc_Andreessen  Irving_Wladawsky-Berger 
april 2016 by jerryking
Semiconductor Startups Face the Flip Side of Moore’s Law - WSJ
April 17, 2015

Dow Jones VentureSource....because of Moore's Law, designing products with more transistors takes more time and money, as does testing them....International Business Strategies, a Silicon Valley consulting firm, estimated that it costs $132 million to design and test a typical chip at the current state-of-the-art width of chip components, 14 nanometers, or billionths of a meter. At 65 nanometers, a component size introduced about a decade ago, a comparable chip cost $16 million. Consequently, chip ventures require more startup capital than many types of early-stage company. They are also less likely to pay off quickly or reliably. For instance, a chip made using the latest 14 nanometer process would need to bring $987 million in revenue to meet a return benchmark of 7.5 times the cost of its design, IBS estimates. A 64-nanometer chip would need to take in $123 million to meet the same benchmark.
semiconductors  Moore's_Law  venture_capital  vc 
june 2015 by jerryking
Moore’s Law Shows Its Age - WSJ
April 17, 2015

Moore’s Law is hitting some painful limits.

The design and testing of a chip with the latest technology now costs $132 million, up 9% from the previous top-of-the-line chip, estimates International Business Strategies Inc., a consulting firm in Los Gatos, Calif. A decade ago, designing such an advanced chip cost just $16 million. Meanwhile, some companies for the first time are unable to reduce the cost of each tiny transistor....The changes are triggered partly by the many new processing steps needed to turn silicon wafers into the latest computer chips. Circuitry for the latest chips has a width of 14 nanometers, or billionths of a meter, which enables manufacturers to squeeze hundreds of millions more transistors on a chip than they could in the past. But designing products that use so many more components takes lots of time and money.
Moore's_Law  Silicon_Valley  history  Intel  diminishing_returns  semiconductors  miniaturization  physics 
april 2015 by jerryking
The year the Valley embraced sustainable food innovation
Feb. 21, 2013 | GiGaOM | By Katie Fehrenbacher.

When I ask Tetrick why his company is “venture backable,” he says because they are creating a powerhouse of innovative thinkers that can come together across disciplines, and traditional food companies just aren’t as nimble. Tesla used that same argument for why as a startup it can revolutionize the car industry, and out innovate against the large automakers.

But Tesla is a sort of outlier on a lot of levels. It’ll be harder to disrupt more traditional industries without Moore’s Law in your corner. But in the meantime, as these startups sink or swim, at least they’ll be putting the spotlight on a crucial problem: the food industry is broken and it needs technology and innovation to be fixed.
Silicon_Valley  food  food_tech  innovation  Vinod_Khosla  venture_capital  start_ups  Peter_Thiel  nimbleness  supply_chains  dysfunction  Moore's_Law 
february 2013 by jerryking
Ten Laws Of The Modern World
04.19.05 | Forbes | Rich Karlgaard.

• Gilder's Law: Winner's Waste. The futurist George Gilder wrote about this a few years ago in a Forbes publication. The best business models, he said, waste the era's cheapest resources in order to conserve the era's most expensive resources. When steam became cheaper than horses, the smartest businesses used steam and spared horses. Today the cheapest resources are computer power and bandwidth. Both are getting cheaper by the year (at the pace of Moore's Law). Google (nasdaq: GOOG - news - people ) is a successful business because it wastes computer power--it has some 120,000 servers powering its search engine--while it conserves its dearest resource, people. Google has fewer than 3,500 employees, yet it generates $5 billion in (current run rate) sales.

• Ricardo's Law. The more transparent an economy becomes, the more David Ricardo's 19th-century law of comparative advantage rules the day. Then came the commercial Internet, the greatest window into comparative advantage ever invented. Which means if your firm's price-value proposition is lousy, too bad. The world knows.

• Wriston's Law. This is named after the late Walter Wriston, a giant of banking and finance. In his 1992 book, The Twilight of Sovereignty, Wriston predicted the rise of electronic networks and their chief effect. He said capital (meaning both money and ideas), when freed to travel at the speed of light, "will go where it is wanted, stay where it is well-treated...." By applying Wriston's Law of capital and talent flow, you can predict the fortunes of countries and companies.

• The Laffer Curve. In the 1970s the young economist Arthur Laffer proposed a wild idea. Cut taxes at the margin, on income and capital, and you'll get more tax revenue, not less. Laffer reasoned that lower taxes would beckon risk capital out of hiding. Businesses and people would become more productive. The pie would grow. Application of the Laffer Curve is why the United States boomed in the 1980s and 1990s, why India is rocking now and why eastern Europe will outperform western Europe.

• Drucker's Law. Odd as it seems, you will achieve the greatest results in business and career if you drop the word "achievement" from your vocabulary. Replace it with "contribution," says the great management guru Peter Drucker. Contribution puts the focus where it should be--on your customers, employees and shareholders.

• Ogilvy's Law. David Ogilvy gets my vote as the greatest advertising mind of the 20th century. The founder of Ogilvy & Mather--now part of WPP (nasdaq: WPPGY - news - people )--left a rich legacy of ideas in his books, my favorite being Ogilvy on Advertising. Ogilvy wrote that whenever someone was appointed to head an office of O&M, he would give the manager a Russian nesting doll. These dolls open in the middle to reveal a smaller doll, which opens in the middle to reveal a yet smaller doll...and so on. Inside the smallest doll would be a note from Ogilvy. It read: "If each of us hires people who are smaller than we are, we shall become a company of dwarfs. But if each of us hires people who are bigger than we are, we shall become a company of giants." Ogilvy knew in the 1950s that people make or break businesses. It was true then; it's truer today.
Rich_Karlgaard  matryoshka_dolls  Moore's_Law  Metcalfe's_Law  Peter_Drucker  Ogilvy_&_Mather  Gilder's_Law  hiring  talent  advertising_agencies  transparency  value_propositions  capital_flows  talent_flows  David_Ogilvy  inexpensive  waste  abundance  scarcity  constraints  George_Gilder 
june 2012 by jerryking
Drugs That Are as Smart as Our Diseases | Mind & Matter -
SEPT.17, 2011 | WSJ | By MATT RIDLEY. The very opposite of
Moore's Law is happening at the downstream end of the R&D pipeline.
The number of new molecules approved per billion dollars of
inflation-adjusted R&D has declined inexorably at 9% a year and is
now 1/100th of what it was in 1950....

Drugs must be designed to nudge whole networks rather than single
targets. e.g., to develop a treatment for the hospital infection
Clostridium difficile, e-Therapeutics drew a sort of spider's web of how
all the proteins on the outside of the bacterium interacted. From that
web, they identified crucial nodes in the network and, by trial and
error, selected a combination of molecules that could attack those

A similar approach is showing promise for cancer and even neurological
disease. It means hitting multiple targets simultaneously, the targets
chosen by network analysis. Where diseases are complex, the cures will
be complex, too.
drugs  pharmaceutical_industry  R&D  decline  research  cancers  networks  complexity  disease  biochemistry  Moore's_Law  molecules  trial_&_error  multiple_targets  Clostridium_difficile 
september 2011 by jerryking All's fair in love and war, but hard to measure in business
April 26, 2010 | Globe & Mail | GEORGE STALK JR. "These
laws also mean that the informational "glue" that defined the boundaries
of industries and companies is dissolving, enabling industries to be
redrawn again and again. Companies can no longer rest comfortably in a
market position but must continually cannibalize their own and their
competitors' positions; incumbents must go on the attack to remain
viable....These competitors will not target product-market niches, but
instead define their business as the layers of events and processes that
produce a product or service, as Microsoft and Intel have. This will
happen not only in high-tech and communications but also in industries
such as biotech, media and retail. We already see successful strategies
of "layer mastery" in payments processing, contract electronics
manufacturing, and aircraft leasing. Industries and markets will be
redefined in ways that will make the traditional assessment of "fair"
increasingly difficult.
George_Stalk_Jr.  competitive_landscape  competitive_strategy  Intel  Microsoft  Google  Moore's_Law  Gilder's_Law  Metcalfe's_Law  Coase's_Law  complacency  layer_mastery  industry_boundaries  offensive_tactics  BCG  kaleidoscopic  informational_advantages  product-market_fit  market_position 
may 2010 by jerryking
VC Confidential: Wisdoms of Sequoia's Don Valentine
November 15, 2007 | VC Confidential | by Matt McCall.
"The trouble with the first time entrepreneur is that he doesn’t know what he doesn’t know. After a failure he does know what he doesn’t know and can beat the hell out of people who still have to learn."

"That's easy. I just follow Moore's Law and make a few guesses about its consequences." (on his success investing in semiconductor plays)

"I got to Silicon Valley in 1959. Nothing is revolutionary; it's evolutionary. Look the sequence of Intel microprocessors. It's all predictable. The nature of silicon and software and storage go hand in hand. In the case of software, you just have to be more clever about the nature of the application. So all these things kind of tick along, feeding off each other"

“All companies that go out of business do so for the same reason - they run out of money.”

"Why did you send me this renegade from the human race?" (comment after meeting Steve Jobs)

"Great markets make great companies."

"I like opportunities that are addressing markets so big that even the management team can't get in its way."

"One of my jobs as a board member has been to counsel management to avoid distraction and to execute with constructive paranoia."
quotes  venture_capital  Sequoia  pretense_of_knowledge  Don_Valentine  paranoia  Moore's_Law  failure  large_markets  distractions 
january 2010 by jerryking
The next juice box - The Globe and Mail
May. 28, 2009 Globe & Mail | by David Fielding. The last
great innovation in energy storage came when researchers developed the
lithium-ion (li-ion) battery almost 30 years ago. Unfortunately, the
lithium ion is little changed or improved since Sony first offered these
batteries for your Walkman. Moore’s Law doesn’t hold true for
batteries. There’s no point in the U.S. trading dependence on Saudi oil
for a dependence on Asian batteries.
ideas  innovation  batteries  venture_capital  Moore's_Law 
june 2009 by jerryking
Craig Barrett: From Moore's Law to Barrett's Rules -
MAY 16, 2009 | Wall Street Journal | by Michael S. Malone. Profiles Craig Barrett of Intel
Intel  Moore's_Law 
may 2009 by jerryking
Address by Mike Lazaridis, PI Board Chair, to the Public Policy Forum - Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics
April 2, 2009 | Address by Mike Lazaridis, PI Board Chair, to the Public Policy Forum

First Principles: The Crazy Business of Doing Serious Science (Paperback)
by Howard Burton (Author) . It's an account of how the Perimeter Institute was built from scratch.

This year’s testimonial dinner was held on April 2, 2009, and honoured several Canadian leaders, including Mike Lazaridis, Founder and Board Chair of Perimeter Institute, who conveyed the importance of long-term thinking by those involved with shaping policy relating to science and technology. The following text, building on those remarks as reported by the national media, shares the messages provided to the PPF.

So imagine this story. A granting council has been tasked with driving the economy, really building commerce and commercializing technology and doing important things for the country. And so, of course, what are they thinking? They’re thinking we need more horses, we need better ways to clean up the streets, and we need to figure out ways to build better stagecoaches and carriages. Now this physicist comes into the room and he sits down. And they ask him, "Dr. Einstein, why are you here?" He says, "Oh, I’d like to have an office and a stipend." "For what?" they want to know. So he explains, "Well, I need a desk and blackboard and maybe a shelf for my books and my papers. And I need a small stipend, so I can go to a few scientific conferences around the world and have a few postdoctoral researchers." They ask, "Why?" And he says: "Well, I have these ideas about light and it’s very complicated, but light can …" And the council members start wondering, "What’s that got to do with horses?"

So, that gentleman actually had to go and get a day job. He went to work at a patent office, where he came up with, a few years later, the four most important papers of all time. Ideas that transformed everything we knew and put mankind in a new direction. He came up with one of the basic ideas leading to quantum technology, when he predicted the quantum properties of light, explaining an observation called the photo-electric effect. He came up with special relativity, a new understanding of space and time. He also discovered that mass and energy are the same thing at a fundamental level. By thinking and calculating the way he did, he came up with E=mc2, the most famous equation of all time. These discoveries, over time, led to nuclear energy, semiconductors, computers, lasers, medical imaging, DVDs and much more. The powerful ideas happened from pure thought and research by someone who basically would have had to give up a comfortable salary at the patent office to take a research or teaching position at a university.

Now let’s fast-forward to today. We have all these issues. We’re running out of energy any way you slice it. And the energy sources that we have today are changing our climate and the environment catastrophically and irreparably. At the same time, we have this enormous need for value creation because our financial system basically ran onto a coral reef. We’re taking on debt to try to get ourselves off the reef, and there’s all this need for value creation and innovation. It’s kind of staring us in the face.

We only have to flashback to that gentleman thinking about light to realize that we need to fund our scientists and our researchers and our students. We not only need to fund them imaginatively, we need to have faith that what they are doing is going to be important in 20, 30, 40 or 50 years from now, and that we haven’t got a chance of understanding its relevance today.

And so we need to be very careful with policy, not to try to put everything in short-term context – not to try to figure out how something is only relevant today – because, if we do, we will make a mistake. We will go the wrong way. We will be investing in horses, carriages, and cleaning manure in the streets instead of fostering the research that can give rise to an idea or super technology that’s going to change the world.

Right now, there is some pandemonium in physics because we are running up against some paradoxes and some data that don’t make any sense. For example, Moore’s Law, which describes the miniaturization of computer chips, will reach its limit in 10 years. Everything we built our telecommunications industry and information age on is going to hit this limit, if we don’t find a new base. We need a new discovery. It’s going to happen, and we need to put major investments in these esoteric studies like quantum computing, quantum information science, quantum gravity, string theory and other areas, because I can guarantee you that one of the discoveries that will emerge is going to solve one of those scientific paradoxes and make sense of that weird data. And when that happens, 20 or 30 years from now, you won’t recognize things.
Albert_Einstein  Blackberry  books  broad-based_scientific_enquiry  first_principle  fundamental_discoveries  Mike_Lazaridis  miniaturization  Moore's_Law  paradoxes  Perimeter_Institute  physicists  public_policy  quantum_computing  RIM  semiconductors 
april 2009 by jerryking

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