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jerryking : anomalies   15

Hedge fund manager driven by a thirst for knowledge
December 10/11th, 2016 | Financial Times | Lindsay Fortado.

“I am always paranoid I’m not smart enough,” he said. “The biggest challenge in today’s world is that knowledge has increasingly become a commodity. How do you find the kernel of information, that anomaly that enables you to generate alpha?"
hedge_funds  United_Kingdom  HBS  slight_edge  anomalies  philanthropy  alpha  kernels  commoditization_of_information 
december 2016 by jerryking
Feeling uncertain, CEO? Better go on the attack - The Globe and Mail
HARVEY SCHACHTER
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, May. 05 2015

Taking control of uncertainty is the fundamental leadership challenge of our time … ” he writes in The Attacker’s Advantage. “The advantage now goes to those who create change, not just learn to live with it. Instead of waiting and reacting, such leaders immerse themselves in the ambiguities of the external environment, sort through them before things are settled and known, set a path, and steer the organization decisively onto it.”
Harvey_Schachter  Ram_Charan  uncertainty  algorithms  mathematics  data  management_consulting  anomalies  change  Jack_Welch  books  gurus  offense  data_driven  leadership  ambiguities  offensive_tactics 
may 2015 by jerryking
Where to Look for Insight
Mohanbir Sawhney Sanjay Khosla
FROM THE NOVEMBER 2014
Innovation isn’t a department. It’s a mindset that should permeate your entire enterprise.

No matter the venue, the feedstock for innovation is insight—an imaginative understanding of an internal or external opportunity that can be tapped to improve efficiency, generate revenue, or boost engagement. Insights can be about stakeholder needs, market dynamics, or even how your company works.

Here are Seven Insight Channels
Anomalies

Examine deviations from the norm
Do you see unexpectedly high or low revenue or share in a market or segment? Surprise performance from a business process or a company unit?

Confluence

Find macro trend intersections

What key economic, behavioral, technological, or demographic trends do you see? How are they combining to create opportunities?

Frustrations

Pinpoint deficiencies in the system

Where are customer pain points for your products, services, or solutions? Which organizational processes or practices annoy you and your colleagues?

Orthodoxies

Question conventional beliefs
Are there assumptions or beliefs in your industry that go unexamined? Toxic behaviors or procedures at your company that go unchallenged?

Extremities

Exploit deviance
What can you learn from the behaviors and needs of your leading-edge or laggard customers, employees, or suppliers?

Voyages

Learn from immersion elsewhere
How are your stakeholders’ needs influenced by their sociocultural context?

Analogies

Borrow from other industries or organizations
What successful innovations do you see applied in other disciplines? Can you adapt them for your own?
customer_insights  HBR  analogies  anomalies  toxic_behaviors  trends  pain_points  assumptions  innovation  insights  conventional_wisdom  travel  laggards  copycats  dilemmas  extremes  orthodoxy  immersive  deviance  learning_journeys  leading-edge  unexpected  mindsets  frictions  opportunities  opportunistic  consumer_behavior  feedstock 
november 2014 by jerryking
If you ever wondered how math class could help you later in life, here’s your answer - The Globe and Mail
Jun. 18 2014 | The Globe and Mail | ERIN ANDERSSEN

Jordan Ellenberg’s new book, How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking.

In a world brimming with information, math is an important tool to help spot statistical glitches and everyday fallacies, but it’s being lost. “Math is the science of not being wrong about things,” he writes. “Knowing math is like wearing a pair of X-ray specs that reveal hidden structures underneath the messy and chaotic surface of the world.”....Mathematical amateurs have all kinds of reasons to use math. It helps them learn the difference between correlation and causation, to see the flaw in statistics, to spot a sneaky sell.

“Math is the science of not being wrong.” Ellenberg writes. In the real world, it doesn’t just find the right answers – it teaches us to ask the right question in the first place.
mathematics  books  messiness  correlations  anomalies  numeracy  mistakes  sleaze  questions  tools  ratios  asking_the_right_questions  causality  statistics  in_the_real_world 
june 2014 by jerryking
Lunch with the FT: Peter Thiel - FT.com
December 20, 2013 4:06 pm
Lunch with the FT: Peter Thiel

By Richard Waters

Venture capital, where success depends on picking winners in the next hot tech markets and sticking with them, seems a long way from riding booms and busts as a hedge fund manager. In Thiel’s world, however, all things are connected, as he stitches ideas together into a grand unifying theory of our times.

The pieces fit together something like this. The historically anomalous bubbles of recent years – Japan’s stock market boom of the 1980s, the dotcom mania of the 1990s, the housing finance frenzy of the past decade and, now, the government bubble – all resulted from the fact that people retained outsized expectations for the future, even as reality came up short.
"Twitter may not be enough to take civilisation to the next level"

The reason for this expectation gap, Thiel argues, is that technological progress came to a halt at the end of the 1960s. As the website of Founders Fund declares: “We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.” Thiel is still making it up to Twitter for this jab: it’s a perfectly fine company, he says, and may even be worth the high valuation placed on it by Wall Street, though he adds with deadpan irony that “it may not be enough to take civilisation to the next level”
anomalies  boom-to-bust  bubbles  dotcom  expectations  Founders_Fund  libertarians  Palantir  Peter_Thiel  Richard_Waters  Silicon_Valley  Twitter  vc  venture_capital 
december 2013 by jerryking
Dramatic temperature increases could threaten Canadian health, infrastructure - The Globe and Mail
Jan. 21 2013 | The Globe and Mail | ANNA MEHLER PAPERNY

Canada is getting hotter faster than ever before and at a faster rate than almost any other country. Rain, snow, sleet and hail storms are becoming more erratic. What were once considered exceptional weather patterns – the kind researchers reject to avoid skewing their data – are becoming common....Canada’s infrastructure wasn’t built for this kind of climate. And much of the burden falls on municipal governments, with road, sewer and transit systems that can barely cope with existing weather conditions, let alone future vagaries.

“There’s a very large gap in terms of the current health of municipal infrastructure in Canada and where we should be right now,” said Paul Kovacs, University of Western Ontario economist and executive director of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, a group established by Canada’s insurance industry to research the costs of natural disasters and how to mitigate them....The effects of erratic weather patterns became very real for Ontario’s apple farmers last year: An early thaw followed by an unexpected frost wiped out 82 per cent of the province’s crop. Now, the industry – worth about $100-million in Ontario alone – is trying to figure out how to weatherproof itself. Potential fixes are wind breaks, hail nets, frost fans and sunscreen for apples to prevent damage from sunlight and heat. It’s expensive and uncertain, especially when the weather becomes tougher to predict. Leslie Huffman, Ontario’s apple production specialist, is working with the province on evaluating new techniques.
apples  anomalies  Canada  catastrophes  climate_change  extreme_weather_events  infrastructure  insurance  municipalities  natural_calamities  risk-mitigation  weather 
january 2013 by jerryking
Surprise business result? Explore whether it is a hidden opportunity
June 18, 2007 | G&M pg. B8 | George Stalk Jr.

What does it take to capitalize on anomalies systematically?

For starters, you need to have metrics and information systems that are sufficiently refined to identify anomalies in the first place. Knowing the average margins and market share isn’t enough; look at the entire range of outcomes—across customers, geographies, products, and the like. This allows you to surface out-of-the-ordinary results for closer inspection.

The next step is to separate wheat from chaff: those anomalies that signal a potential business opportunity from those that are merely one-time events. The key is to examine the pattern of unusual performance over time. The customer who consistently buys high volumes or the market that outperforms the average year after year are, by definition, not random. Is there an underlying cause that can be identified and then replicated elsewhere?

Finally, you need to understand the precise mechanisms that animate the anomalies you identify. Why is the unusual pattern of performance happening? What specific features of the product or the local environment or the customer experience are bringing it about? Don’t accept the usual first-order explanations. It’s not enough to know that a particular customer has been loyal for years; find out precisely why.

It’s up to senior management to create the forum for asking why and to persist until the question is answered with genuine insight.
metrics  George_Stalk_Jr.  BCG  anomalies  growth  opportunities  customer_insights  surprises  systematic_approaches  quizzes  ratios  pattern_recognition  insights  questions  first-order  second-order  OPMA  Waudware  curiosity  new_businesses  one-time_events  signals  noise  overlooked_opportunities  latent  hidden  averages  information_systems  assessments_&_evaluations  randomness  5_W’s 
january 2013 by jerryking
Change or die: could adland be the new Detroit?
Feb 18, 2011|Campaign |Amelia Torode (head of strategy and innovation at VCCP and the chair of the IPA Strategy Group) and Tracey Follows ( head of planning at VCCP)...

As the world changed with the globalisation of markets, the transformative power of digital technologies and a shift in consumer demand, the automotive industry and the city of Detroit did not. At a fundamental level, nothing changed. Detroit failed to adapt, failed to evolve.

We have started to ask ourselves: is adland the new Detroit?

Data: find stories in numbers

It's time to reimagine our role. We're no longer solving problems but investigating mysteries; no longer taking a brief, rather taking on a case. Like a detective, we start with behaviour, looking for patterns and anomalies. We assume that what we're being told is not entirely the "truth" so search for information that is given from various perspectives and tend to believe our eyes more than our ears.

Imagine the implications for how we approach data. Seen through the lens of "mystery", we're not simply seeing data as a stream of numbers but as a snapshot of behaviour and an insight into human nature. What we do with data is the same thing we do when we sit on a park bench or at a pavement café - people-watching,albeit from desktops. It's human stories hidden within numbers, and it takes away the fear that surrounds "big data".
shifting_tastes  data-driven  data_journalism  Detroit  advertising_agencies  data  storytelling  massive_data_sets  adaptability  evolution  United_Kingdom  Publicis  managing_change  sense-making  insights  behaviours  patterns  anomalies  assumptions  automotive_industry  human_experience  curiosity  consumer_behavior 
december 2012 by jerryking
Building Wealth - 99.06
J U N E 1 9 9 9 |The Atlantic | by Lester C. Thurow. The new rules for individuals, companies, and nations.

Rule 1 No one ever becomes very rich by saving money.
Rule 2 Sometimes successful businesses have to cannibalize themselves to save themselves.
Rule 3 Two routes other than radical technological change can lead to high-growth, high-rate-of-return opportunities: sociological disequilibriums and developmental disequilibriums.
Rule 4 Making capitalism work in a deflationary environment is much harder than making it work in an inflationary environment.
Rule 5 There are no institutional substitutes for individual entrepreneurial change agents.
Rule 6 No society that values order above all else will be creative; but without some degree of order (institutional integrity??), creativity disappears.
Rule 7 A successful knowledge-based economy requires large public investments in education, infrastructure, and research and development.
Rule 8 The biggest unknown for the individual in a knowledge-based economy is how to have a career in a system where there are no careers.
Lester_Thurow  wealth_creation  entrepreneurship  rules_of_the_game  deflation  career_paths  Managing_Your_Career  cannibalization  disequilibriums  anomalies  JCK  unknowns  high-growth  change_agents  individual_initiative  technological_change  digital_economy  messiness  constraints  knowledge_economy  public_education  new_rules  capitalism  personal_enrichment  ROI  institutional_integrity 
november 2011 by jerryking
Three Core Questions
OCTOBER 27, 2006 | SmartMoney.com | By DONALD LUSKIN.

Canadian economists Dan Ciuriak and John Curtis argue in a provocative new study that maybe we have “everything all wrong” about how the global economy works. They’ve identified a series of anomalies that “call into question the basic understanding of economics that underpins policy formulation today,” in their paper, What If Everything We Know About Economic Policy is Wrong?
personal_finance  Ken_Fisher  investment_advice  economists  anomalies  questions  pretense_of_knowledge  think_threes  global_economy 
october 2011 by jerryking
Wealth and Fitness Secret – Ratios - Rich Karlgaard - Innovation Rules -
Dec. 21 2010 | Forbes | Rich Karlgaard. Success is often a
matter of getting the ratios right. Business and investing success is
hardly possible without understanding ratios. Knowing the numbers is
important. But knowing the numbers in relation to other numbers will
make you a millionaire. You will see anomalies that others miss. I’ll
never forget a comment made by George Soros in July 2008, when oil was
$147.50 a barrel. A Goldman Sachs analyst had predicted oil was headed
to $200, but Soros knew better. Why? Because oil was already too
expensive compared to gold. At $147.50, oil was 1:6 the price of gold.
The normal ratio band is 1:10 to 1:15, said Soros. Either gold had to
rise, or oil had to fall. Because Soros could not see any inflation that
might drive gold higher, oil had to fall.
ratios  metrics  Rich_Karlgaard  ksfs  pattern_recognition  George_Soros  jck  life_skills  lessons_learned  moguls  anomalies  fingerspitzengefühl  contextual_intelligence  insights  base_rates 
december 2010 by jerryking
Quick thinking, fast action
May 16 2005 | Financial Times | By Geoffrey Owen. Reviews ,
MADE IN CHINA by Donald Sull. What is the lesson here? If you want to
make headway in the Chinese market, you have to immerse yourself in the
environment, keep an eye out for anomalies that signal a selling
opportunity and, when you see one, go at it with all guns blazing.
China  book_reviews  entrepreneurship  Lenovo  Haier  Donald_Sull  anomalies 
march 2010 by jerryking
Lessons of the '30s: Long Study of Great Depression Has Shaped Bernanke's Views; Fed Nominee Learned Perils Of Deflation, Gold Standard And Pricking of Bubbles; A Grandmother's Explanation
Dec 7, 2005 | Wall Street Journal pg. A.1 | Greg Ip. "In
1983, Mark Gertler asked his friend and fellow economist Ben Bernanke
why he was starting his career by studying the Great Depression. "If you
want to understand geology, study earthquakes," Mr. Bernanke replied,
according to Mr. Gertler. "If you want to understand economics, study
the biggest calamity to hit the U.S. and world economies." "Lafley was
in charge of the company's Asian operations during a major Japanese
earthquake and the Asian economic collapse. That's when he discovered,
he says, that "you learn ten times more in a crisis than during normal
times.""
10x  Benjamin_Bernanke  economists  U.S._Federal_Reserve  bubbles  financial_history  Greg_Ip  Great_Depression  disequilibriums  geology  earthquakes  '30s  anomalies  crisis  deflation  lessons_learned 
november 2009 by jerryking
A dizzying world of insight lurks beyond the averages
Aug 27, 2007 | The Globe & Mail pg. B.6 | by George
Stalk Jr. "A gloriously rich world is hidden from us by "averages." We
manage our lives and our businesses with averages....But as soon as we
choose an average on which to make a decision, we cut ourselves off from
more nuanced information that might lead to a better
decision....drill[ing] down behind the averages can yield rich insights.
What businesses are we in? Where are the opportunities to raise
prices? How fast can we grow this business? How much time does it
really take us to do things? Other intriguing, insightful questions
include: How much money does it take to run this business? Just what do
our customers want? Where do we make our money in this business? Who
are our real competitors? Do our averages conceal sources of
competitive advantage? Looking behind the averages often yields new
strategic and operational paradigms that can help make better decisions
and ensure they are acted upon daily.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
identify anomalies in the first place. Knowing the average margins and market share isn’t enough; look at the entire range of outcomes—across customers, geographies, products, and the like. This allows you to surface out-of-the-ordinary results for closer inspection. (June 18, 2007 | G&M pg. B8 | George Stalk Jr).
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
base_rates  George_Stalk_Jr.  strategic_thinking  insights  BCG  management_consulting  competitive_advantage  questions  extremes  laggards  decision_making  anomalies  leading-edge  quizzes  ratios  second-order  averages  5_W’s 
october 2009 by jerryking
reportonbusiness.com: Best to deliver bad news facts
February 18, 2009 G&M column by SUSAN PINKER. When it
comes to bad news, we first protect ourselves, and then we protect
others through "Denial". When there's really bad news, there's reliable
evidence that it really is best to face the facts. First, you have to
know what the bad news is, what the outcomes are, what the percentages
are," Dr. Feldman says. "Then you have to give people options. You have
to give them some power - ideas about how they're going to manage
because you don't just leave them hanging there. You have to hold out
some hope."
anomalies  base_rates  Communicating_&_Connecting  crisis  difficult_conversations  forecasting  generating_strategic_options  guessing  managing_people  predictions  probabilities  ratios  Susan_Pinker  face_the_facts  bad_news 
february 2009 by jerryking

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