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jerryking : balance_of_power   9

The U.S. Is Ceding the Pacific to China
March 3, 2019 | WSJ | By Mark Helprin.

While Washington’s focus is elsewhere, Beijing plays the long game—that means preparing for war.

The only effective leverage on China, and by extension North Korea—which otherwise will retain nuclear weapons whether overtly or covertly but certainly—is to alter the correlation of military forces in the Western Pacific, and indeed in the world, so that it no longer moves rapidly and inevitably in China’s favor, which is what China cares about, the essence of its policy, its central proposition. Though with some effort the U.S. is perfectly capable of embarking upon this strategy, it has not. It seems we lack the awareness, political will, intelligence, probity, discipline, leadership, and habit of mind to do so.
America_in_Decline?  Asia_Pacific  balance_of_power  China  China_rising  geopolitics  hard_power  long-term  long-range  maritime  Mark_Helprin  North_Korea  nuclear  PACOM  political_geography  rivalries  South_China_Sea  strategic_geography  submarines  trade_wars  U.S.  U.S._Navy  USMC  U.S.-China_relations  Xi_Jinping  zero-sum_games 
march 2019 by jerryking
What Can the Next President Do About Russia? - WSJ
Updated Oct. 16, 2016

Of the two great autocratic powers in Eurasia, Russia is emerging as a greater short-term threat than China. The Chinese hope to gradually dominate the waters off the Asian mainland without getting into a shooting war with the U.S. Yet while Beijing’s aggression is cool, Moscow’s is hot....Russia’s economic situation is much worse than China’s, and so the incentive of its leaders to dial up nationalism is that much greater. But the larger factor, one that Western elites have trouble understanding, cannot be quantified: A deeply embedded sense of historical insecurity makes Russian aggression crude, brazen, bloodthirsty and risk-prone. ....How does the U.S. build leverage on the ground, from the Baltic Sea to the Syrian desert, that puts America in a position where negotiations with Russia can make a strategic difference?....

For without the proper geopolitical context, the secretary of state is a missionary, not a diplomat. ...In the cyber domain the U.S. has not sufficiently drawn red lines. What kind of Russian hacking will result in either a proportionate, or even disproportionate, punitive response? The Obama administration seems to be proceeding ad hoc, as it has done with Russia policy in general. The next administration, along with projecting military force throughout the Russian near abroad, will have to project force in cyberspace, too.
Russia  Vladimir_Putin  Robert_Kaplan  threats  deterrence  nationalism  Baltics  NATO  U.S.foreign_policy  leverage  geopolitics  log_rolling  diplomacy  realism  balance_of_power  realpolitik  cyber_warfare  autocracies  insecurity  hacking  maritime  punitive  retribution  retaliation  South_China_Sea  ad_hoc  red_lines  China  autocrats 
october 2016 by jerryking :: Magazine :: How We Would Fight China
June 2005 | Atlantic | By Robert D. Kaplan. The Middle East is
just a blip. The American military contest with China in the Pacific
will define the 21st century. And China will be a more formidable
adversary than Russia ever was. How should the United States prepare to
respond to challenges in the Pacific? (1) Understand is that the
alliance system of the latter half of the twentieth century is dead.(2)
the functional substitute for a NATO of the Pacific is PACOM.(3)
Ironically, NATO, could be revived by the Cold War in the Pacific.
Bismarck brought peace and prosperity to Central Europe by recognizing
that when power relationships are correctly calibrated, wars tend to be
avoided..."Getting into a war with China is easy," says Michael Vickers,
the dilemma is, How do you end a war with China?"
adversaries  balance_of_power  Bismarck  calibration  China  China_rising  howto  PACOM  rising_powers  Robert_Kaplan  U.S._Navy 
march 2010 by jerryking
China at Sea -
JANUARY 6, 2009 | Wall Street Journal | By HUGO RESTALL. A
carrier project would shift the balance of power. the balance of power
in Asia is going to shift dramatically in the decade ahead, and nowhere
will the effects be more evident than in the South China Sea. Beijing is
already constructing a major naval base on its southern island of
Hainan. The naval buildup would give Beijing a freer hand to enforce its
claims to South China Sea islands -- claims that are disputed by five
other countries. The waters through which much of the world's trade now
flows, from the Malacca Strait to Taiwan, would effectively become a
Chinese lake.

The timing of the move, too, is significant. China hesitated for years
before declaring its intent to develop carrier capability because of the
potential reaction of its neighbors.
maritime  China  PACOM  balance_of_power  security_&_intelligence  China_rising  PLA  South_China_Sea 
march 2010 by jerryking

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