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Opinion | The World-Shaking News That You’re Missing
Nov. 26, 2019 | The New York Times | By Thomas L. Friedman

** “Has China Won? by  Kishore Mahbubani

A new wall — a digital Berlin Wall — had begun to be erected between China and America. And the only thing left to be determined, a Chinese business executive remarked to me, “is how high this wall will be,” and which countries will choose to be on which side.

This new wall, separating a U.S.-led technology and trade zone from a Chinese-led one, will have implications as vast as the wall bisecting Berlin did. Because the peace, prosperity and accelerations in technology and globalization that have so benefited the world over the past 40 years were due, in part, to the interweaving of the U.S. and Chinese economies.

The messy, ad hoc decoupling of these two economies, driven by miscalculations by leaders on both sides, will surely disrupt those trends and the costs could be huge. We might want to talk about that.

Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson gave a speech here a year ago trying to kick-start that discussion. “For 40 years,” Paulson noted, “the U.S.-China relationship has been characterized by the integration of four things: goods, capital, technology and people. And over these 40 years, economic integration between the two countries was supposed to mitigate security competition. But an intellectually honest appraisal must now admit both that this hasn’t happened and that the reverse is taking place.” That reversal is happening for two reasons. First, because the U.S. is — rightly — no longer willing to accept China’s unfair trade practices. Second, because, now that China is a technology powerhouse — and technological products all have both economic and military applications........“after 40 years of integration, a surprising number of political and thought leaders on both sides advocate policies that could forcibly de-integrate the two countries across all four of these baskets.” the digital Berlin Wall took a big step up on May 17, when Trump blacklisted China’s Huawei.......Lots of Chinese tech companies are now thinking: We will never, ever, ever leave ourselves again in a situation where we are totally dependent on America for key components. Time to double down on making our own......similarly, U.S. manufacturers are thinking twice about building their next factory in China or solely depending on a supply chain from there.....this is the sound of two giant economies starting to decouple.....the State Department has been restricting visas for Chinese graduate students studying in sensitive fields — like aviation, robotics and advanced manufacturing ....
What to do?
Friedman is worried that by imposing more and more export and visa controls we will be cutting ourselves off from the access we need to the global investment pools, customers and collaborative scientists and engineers to maintain our technological lead.

I still believe that the most open systems win — they get all the signals of change first, they attract the most high-I.Q. risk-takers/innovators and they enrich and are enriched by the most global flows of talent, ideas and capital. That used to be us.....

China is our economic competitor, economic partner, source of talent and capital, geopolitical rival, collaborator and serial rule-breaker. It is not our enemy or our friend.

The only effective way to manage a relationship this complex is:
1) with an all-of-government approach. You can’t have the Justice Department doing one thing, the Pentagon another, the Treasury another, the trade negotiators another, the State Department another and the president tweeting another. And
2), we need as many Pacific and European allies as possible so it’s “The Whole World Versus China”
blacklists  books  China  China_rising  co-ordinated_approaches  decoupling  Donald_Trump  doubling_down  dual-use  economic_disengagement  economic_integration  espionage  future  Hank_Paulson  Huawei  miscalculations  new_tech_Cold_War  open_borders  security_&_intelligence  seismic_shifts  self-sufficiency  signals  students  supply_chains  technology  Tom_Friedman  undermining_of_trust  U.S.-China_relations  visa_students  walled_gardens  Xi_Jinping 
november 2019 by jerryking
Putin Is Waging Information Warfare. Here’s How to Fight Back. - The New York Times
By MARK GALEOTTIDEC. 14, 2016

the United States and its allies should pursue a strategy of deterrence by denial. Mr. Putin shouldn’t fear retaliation for his information warfare — he should fear that he will fail.

There are several ways to go about this. First, United States institutions need better cybersecurity defenses. Political parties and major newspapers are now targets just as much as the power grid and the Pentagon are. The government has to help provide security when it can — but people have a duty to be more vigilant and recognize that their cybersecurity is about protecting the country, not just their own email accounts. ....Finally, Mr. Putin’s own vanity could be turned into a weapon against him. Every time he overreaches, the American government should point it out. Every time he fails, we need to say so loudly and clearly. We should tell jokes about him. He can rewrite the record in Russia, but the West does not have to contribute to his mythmaking — and we should stop building him up by portraying him as a virtual supervillain.
cyberattacks  Vladimir_Putin  cyber_security  cyber_warfare  retaliation  security_&_intelligence  punitive  phishing  deterrence  economic_warfare  blacklists  retribution  disinformation  campaigns  destabilization  Russia  information_warfare  delegitimization  deception  overreach  power_grid 
december 2016 by jerryking
North Korea: How Can the U.S. Respond to Sony Hack Attack? - WSJ
Dec. 20, 2014 | WSJ | By JONATHAN CHENG And JEYUP S. KWAAK.

SEOUL—U.S. President Barack Obama ’s warning on Friday of punitive action against North Korea following the cyberattack on Sony Pictures Entertainment raises a sticky question: what can the world’s leading military and economic power do to an isolated country that has successfully resisted decades worth of attempts to rein in its hostility?...However, engaging in any kind of cyber tit-for-tat with North Korea could undermine trust in the security of online banking and shopping services,
North_Korea  cyber_security  cyber_warfare  Sony  retaliation  sanctions  blacklists  economic_warfare  money_laundering  hackers  punitive  retribution  undermining_of_trust  cyberattacks 
december 2014 by jerryking
Steering Clear of Sanctions - The CFO Report - WSJ
July 8, 2014 | WSJ | By RACHEL LOUISE ENSIGN, SAMUEL RUBENFELD and MAXWELL MURPHY.

The U.S. blacklist names nearly 6,000 entities and individuals that are off-limits to U.S. companies and—in some cases—their foreign subsidiaries.

The list changes often: the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control added almost 500 names last year, and this year has added nearly 240, including Igor Sechin, chief of Rosneft. More than 350 names were crossed off this year, largely due to the removal of most remaining sanctions on Colombia’s Cali drug cartel.

Treasury penalties for violating sanctions this year have totaled about $1.2 billion, largely because of the department’s share of the BNP penalties.

“We call them Powerball penalties now,” said Judith Lee, a sanctions specialist and partner at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP, referring to their size.

As the U.S. tries to exert more geopolitical influence with financial levers, rather than military might, multinational companies are at risk of running afoul of its sanctions. Many sanctions programs have different rules for different countries. Individuals on the list often are reputed to operate networks of companies with little transparency. And the penalties can be extracted by a range of U.S. authorities.

When it comes to sanctions, “the U.S. government is effectively deputizing all of these companies to be their own policemen,” said Ms. Lee.
sanctions  U.S.Treasury_Department  geopolitics  multinationals  blacklists  penalties  economic_warfare 
august 2014 by jerryking

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