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jerryking : bonds   15

The death of cultural transmission
April 3, 2019 | FT Alphaville | By Jamie Powell.

music publishing = the business of licensing songs for films, television and advertising.

Valuing [a record label's] music catalogue is... crucial for anyone looking to bid for a stake in the business.

Despite the prominence of new music, established artists are still fundamental to recorded music's success. .......So let's think about these golden oldies as assets. Assets whose appeal has, arguably, only been heightened by the advent of streaming which, with its recurring revenues and growing audience, has made recurring payments from established acts even more bond-like in their cash flow consistency.
But like fixed-income assets with long durations, these cash flows are also sensitive to the smallest assumptions about their future viability. Assumptions which are not as rock solid as some investors might imagine. Let's use The Beatles as a point of reference here, as "The White Album" was UMG's fourth best-selling album last year. (If you're asking “why The Beatles?” Well, Alphaville likes The Beatles, sure. The Fab Four could easily be replaced by its other legacy acts, such as Queen and Nirvana).

But the problem for a prospective buyer is why we're a fan. To put it simply: we had no choice. We were indoctrinated.

On a long car journeys to coastal summer holidays, or at home on a knackered JVC stereo, we, like many of our friends, were limited to a dozen or so records (jk: finite resources). One of which, inevitably, would be some form of John, Paul, George and Ringo (and George).

Call it the cultural transmission effect. Music would be passed on generation to generation, amplified by the relative scarcity, physical space constraints and high prices of recorded media.

This provided a boon for the major labels as it not only meant lower marketing costs but reissues, limited editions, and remasters became an easily repeatable trick, as younger generations grew up to become consumers themselves.......The Beatles, Rolling Stones and Bob Marley are after all, great artists. Their music will live on. But that's not the question for a perspective investor.

The question is: to what degree will the royalties from these artists continue to flow? Assume Sir Paul and Sir Ringo will continue to grow exponentially richer off the back of streaming, and perhaps the quoted multiples don't look quite so mad. In this age it's hard to find assets which both grow, and have semi-predictable cash flows.

But if the next generation doesn't hold the same affinity to the artists which defined the first fifty years of the pop era, where does that leave the labels' back catalogues? May we suggest: in a tougher spot than most imagine.
Apple_Music  artists  assets  Beatles  biopics  bonds  cultural_transmission  digital_strategies  finance  finite_resources  golden_oldies  hard_to_find  indoctrination  legacy_artists  music  music_catalogues  music_labels  music_publishing  platforms  Rollingstones  royalties  Spotify  strategic_buyers  streaming  superstars  U2  UMG  valuations 
april 2019 by jerryking
At BlackRock, a Wall Street Rock Star’s $5 Trillion Comeback - The New York Times
SEPT. 15, 2016 | NYT | By LANDON THOMAS Jr.

(1) Laurence Fink: “If you think you know everything about our business, you are kidding yourself,” he said. “The biggest question we have to answer is: ‘Are we developing the right leaders?’” “Are you,” he asked, “prepared to be one of those leaders?”

(2) BlackRock was thriving because of its focus on low-risk, low-cost funds and the all-seeing wonders of Aladdin. BlackRock sees the future of finance as being rules-based, data-driven, systematic investment styles such as exchange-traded funds, which track a variety of stock and bond indexes or adhere to a set of financial rules. Fink believes that his algorithmic driven style will, over time, grow faster than the costlier “active investing” model in which individuals, not algorithms, make stock, bond and asset allocation decisions.

Most money management firms highlight their investment returns first, and risk controls second. BlackRock has taken a reverse approach: It believes that risk analysis, such as gauging how a security will trade if interest rates go up or down, improves investment results.

(3) BlackRock, along with central banks, sovereign wealth funds — have become the new arbiters of "flow.“ It is not about the flow of securities anymore, it is about the flow of information and indications of interest.”

(4) Asset Liability and Debt and Derivatives Investment Network (Aladdin), is BlackRock's big data-mining, risk-mitigation platform/framework. Aladdin is a network of code, trades, chat, algorithms and predictive models that on any given day can highlight vulnerabilities and opportunities connected to the trillions that BlackRock firm tracks — including the portion which belongs to outside firms that pay BlackRock a fee to have access to the platform. Aladdin stress-tests how securities will respond to certain situations (e.g. a sudden rise in interest rates or what happens in the event of a political surprise, like Donald J. Trump being elected president.)

In San Francisco, a team of equity analysts deploys data analysis to study the language that CEOs use during an earnings call. Unusually bearish this quarter, compared with last? If so, maybe the stock is a sell. “We have more information than anyone,” Mr. Fink said.
systematic_approaches  ETFs  Wall_Street  BlackRock  Laurence_Fink  asset_management  traders  complacency  future  finance  Aladdin  risk-management  financiers  financial_services  central_banks  money_management  information_flows  volatility  economic_downturn  liquidity  bonds  platforms  frameworks  stress-tests  monitoring  CEOs  succession  risk-analysis  leadership  order_management_system  sovereign_wealth_funds  market_intelligence  intentionality  data_mining  collective_intelligence  risk-mitigation  rules-based  risks  asset_values  scaling  scenario-planning  databases 
september 2016 by jerryking
Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near - NYTimes.com
MAY 22, 2015

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator[edit]
The popular book Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, by Edwin Lefèvre, reflects on many of those lessons, and is in effect a financial memoir of Livermore (a pseudonym is used) starting with the bucket shop days and ending in the 1920s before the crash. The book has an avid following in the investment community, and is still in print. There is some speculation that this partnership between the two men was not their first collaboration. Since Lefèvre was a writer and journalist, it is thought that he was one of the friendly newspapermen that Livermore employed for both information and planted articles. Livermore himself wrote a less widely read book, "How to trade in stocks; the Livermore formula for combining time element and price". It was published in 1940, the same year he committed suicide.
Bill_Gross  bonds  PIMCO  investors  Second_Acts  money_management  books  institutional_investors  asset_management 
may 2015 by jerryking
Bill Gross Leaves Pimco for Janus - WSJ
By KIRSTEN GRIND And MICHAEL CALIA CONNECT
Updated Sept. 26, 2014
Bill_Gross  PIMCO  exits  Janus  bonds  asset_management 
september 2014 by jerryking
The obsessive life of bond guru Bill Gross - The Globe and Mail
JOANNA SLATER

NEWPORT BEACH, CALIF. — The Globe and Mail

Last updated Thursday, Aug. 23 2012
Bill_Gross  PIMCO  bonds  money_management 
november 2012 by jerryking
Goldman Sachs to Help Fund NYC Program to Cut Jail Recidivism
Aug 2, 2012 | Bloomberg | By Henry Goldman.

New York City will try to reduce the recidivism of young male convicts housed on Rikers Island with a four-year program run by nonprofits and financed by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)

The bank will invest $9.6 million through a so-called social-impact bond, meaning it will profit only if the plan achieves its goals. New York officials said the program is the first of its kind in the U.S.

“In this new model, private investors fund the intervention through a nonprofit contractor and the government pays the contractor only if the program meets its goals,” Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s office said in a news release.

For Goldman Sachs to earn a profit, the program will need to reduce recidivism by at least 10 percent. City payments to MDRC, a nonprofit social-policy group created by the Ford Foundation that will monitor and run the program, also will be based on its degree of success. The Vera Institute of Justice will independently assess the program’s effectiveness, the mayor’s office said.
Goldman_Sachs  New_York_City  recidivism  incarceration  nonprofit  bonds  Michael_Bloomberg  social_finance  social_impact 
august 2012 by jerryking
To Help Africa, Sell Diaspora Bonds - NYTimes.com
Homeward Bond
By NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA and DILIP RATHA
Published: March 11, 2011
Africa  Diaspora  remittances  debt  bonds 
march 2011 by jerryking
Op-Ed Columnist - The Goldman Drama - NYTimes.com
April 26, 2010 | NYT | By DAVID BROOKS. Between 1997 and
2006, consumers, lenders and builders created a housing bubble, and
pretty much the entire establishment (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, their
regulators, the big commercial banks and their regulators, The Fed.,
the ratings agencies, the SEC and the political class in general )
missed it....Outside the establishment herd, on the other hand, there
were contrarians who understood the bubble (which was the easy part) and
who figured out how to take counteraction (which was hard).... it would
be smart to decentralize authority in order to head off future bubbles.
Both Gregory Mankiw of Harvard and Sebastian Mallaby of the CFR have
been promoting a way to do this: Force the big financial institutions to
issue bonds that would be converted into equity when a regulator deems
them to have insufficient capital. Thousands of traders would buy and
sell these bonds as a way to measure and reinforce the stability of the
firms.
David_Brooks  Goldman_Sachs  contrarians  bubbles  regulators  capital_adequacy  bonds  equity 
april 2010 by jerryking

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