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jerryking : choices   11

‘Farsighted’ Review: How to Make Up Your Mind - WSJ
14 COMMENTS
By David A. Shaywitz
Sept. 11, 2018

..mission planners first systematically widened their thinking to define their options as broadly as possible, seeking a “full-spectrum appraisal of the state of things and a comprehensive list of potential choices.” Then they coned down the alternatives by playing out multiple scenarios, exploring all the ways the mission could go wrong........When faced with complex choices we tend to frame problems in a narrow fashion. .......seek participation from as broad and diverse a group as possible.....a diversity of viewpoints isn’t enough. Citing the legal scholar Cass Sunstein, Mr. Johnson observes that, although “groups often possess a rich mix of information distributed among their members,” when they assemble “they tend to focus on shared information.” Thus it is important to design a process that exposes “unshared information”—by meeting individually with stakeholders, for instance, instead of merely convening a town hall. Similarly, he cites research revealing that two-thirds of organizational decisions never contemplate more than a single option. There is a “gravitational pull toward the initial framing of the decision.” To overcome it, he suggests considering what might be done if the presumptive path forward were suddenly blocked....“Uncertainty can’t simply be analyzed out of existence,” ...What scenarios and simulations can offer is a way to “prepare you for the many ways that the future might unexpectedly veer.”..... Linear value modeling, for example, weighs the relative importance of different goals, while a bad-outcomes approach examines worst-case possibilities........given the challenges of making high-stakes global decisions. How should we respond, as a planet, to the challenges of addressing climate change, communicating with alien life forms or managing computers with superintelligence? The answer seems to be: by convening diverse experts and hoping for the best. ....... Great novels matter [JCK; great novels = *fiction*] because “they let us experience parallel lives, and see the complexity of those experiences in vivid detail.”........ fundamentally, choices concern competing narratives, and we’re likely to make better choices if we have richer stories, with more fleshed-out characters, a more nuanced understanding of motives, and a deeper appreciation of how decisions are likely to reverberate and resound.
books  book_reviews  Cass_Sunstein  choices  decision_making  far-sightedness  fiction  howto  narrow-framing  novels  presumptions  scenario-planning  shared_experiences  Steven_Johnson  systematic_approaches  thinking_tragically  uncertainty  unshared_information  wide-framing  worst-case 
november 2018 by jerryking
I’ve Interviewed 300 High Achievers About Their Morning Routines. Here’s What I’ve Learned. - The New York Times
By Benjamin Spall
Oct. 21, 2018
Experiment with your wake-up time
While the majority of the people I’ve interviewed tend to get up early — the average wake-up time for everyone I’ve talked to is 6:27 a.m. — successful people like to experiment to find the sweet spot that works for them.......Make time for whatever energizes you
Most successful people carve out time in their morning to commit to things that make them feel relaxed, energized and motivated. That can mean working out, reading, meditating or just spending time with your loved ones.....
Get enough sleep
The quality of your sleep the night before directly impacts your ability to perform the next day and, indeed, your ability to enjoy your day. Your morning routine means nothing without a good night’s sleep behind it. Not getting enough sleep has been linked to chronic diseases like diabetes and heart disease, and might even decrease the effectiveness of your immune system.

Don’t become complacent about how much sleep you need; most people require between seven and nine hours of sleep a night. If you’re constantly trying to get by on less than seven hours of sleep, it will catch up with you, likely sooner rather than later......Adapt your routine to different situations
While it might not always be possible to keep your full morning routine in place when you’re away from home, it is possible to have a travel-ready routine that is always there when you need it.....Don’t beat yourself up
Nearly everyone I’ve talked to said they don’t consider one, two or even three missed days of their morning routine a failure, so long as they get back to it as soon as they can.
GTD  productivity  routines  lessons_learned  insomnia  adaptability  best_practices  choices  serenity  sleep  high-achieving  early_risers  diabetes  immune_system 
october 2018 by jerryking
Why Trying New Things Is So Hard to Do - The New York Times
By SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN DEC. 1, 2017

Experimentation is an act of humility, an acknowledgment that there is simply no way of knowing without trying something different.

Understanding that truth is a first step, but it is important to act on it. Sticking with an old habit is comforting, but one of these days, maybe, I’ll actually buy a bottle of generic soda.
experimentation  habits  choices  personal_payoffs  decision_making  novelty 
december 2017 by jerryking
The young person's guide to extreme success: What I wish I had known when I was 20 - YouTube
Your life is nothing more than a series of choices....you are the compilation of your choices!!
Rule #1: Think carefully about relationships and children.
Rule #2: Learn how to start a business, just in case.
Rule #3: Always think like an investor in every part of your life (investing--Sun Tzu "The battle is won before it begins"; invest your time like its money, learn how to ignore the world when necessary, 1, 3, 5, 10 yr. goals--figure out what you need to do that day, schedule how you will use your time each day)
Rule #4: Educated geeks are now running the world (educational mediocrity is unacceptable); (listen to everybody, stop talking so damn much).
Ruel #5: Protect your mental and physical health [(exercise, keep losers away from the things you value (i.e. mind, body, spirit, family, time, business)] Be miserly with my time.
Rule #6: Stop being normal!!
advice  preparation  life_skills  relationships  parenting  conflict_resolution  Sun_Tzu  owners  self-education  exercise  positive_thinking  affirmations  time-management  Pablo_Picasso  geeks  delayed_gratification  Boyce_Watkins  choices 
september 2017 by jerryking
The Choice Explosion - The New York Times
David Brooks MAY 3, 2016

Americans have always put great emphasis on individual choice. But even by our own standards we’ve had a choice explosion over the past 30 years.....making decisions well is incredibly difficult....It’s becoming incredibly important to learn to decide well, to develop the techniques of self-distancing to counteract the flaws in our own mental machinery....assume positive intent (i.e. when in the midst of some conflict, start with the belief that others are well intentioned).....People are overly biased by the immediate pain of some choice, but they can put the short-term pain in long-term perspective by asking these questions [Suzy Welch’s 10-10-10 rule. When you’re about to make a decision, ask yourself how you will feel about it 10 minutes from now? 10 months from now? and 10 years from now?]....make deliberate mistakes....our tendency to narrow-frame, to see every decision as a binary “whether or not” alternative. Whenever you find yourself asking “whether or not,” it’s best to step back and ask, “How can I widen my options?” In other words, before you ask, “Should I fire this person?” Ask, “Is there any way I can shift this employee’s role to take advantage of his strengths and avoid his weaknesses?”....It’s important to offer opportunity and incentives. But we also need lessons in self-awareness — on exactly how our decision-making tool is fundamentally flawed, and on mental frameworks we can adopt to avoid messing up even more than we do.
David_Brooks  choices  decision_making  biases  thinking_deliberatively  scarcity  self-awareness  metacognition  binary_decisionmaking  abundance  optionality  narrow-framing  Suzy_Welch  wide-framing  self-distancing 
may 2016 by jerryking
The Choices That Led Small Business Owners to Wealth - The New York Times
FEB. 12, 2016 | NYT | By PAUL SULLIVAN

have to make decisions to professionalize the business, put systems in place and have a plan that allows them to do longer-term planning. Those decisions can make the difference between being a small-business owner and a business executive with significant wealth....“There is no bright-line test when a company gets to a certain size or age to do these things,” said Kevin M. Harris, head of the family business group at Northern Trust. “It is based on where the company wants to go.”

Determining which decisions were the ones that made the difference is sometimes not an easy task, and the stories that are retold are often the ones that turned out well. Yet it is worth considering what can go wrong.

Entrepreneurs who failed to find success were often resistant to change
small_business  wealth_creation  decision_making  entrepreneur  risk-taking  mindsets  JCK  thinking_tragically  Northern_Trust  owners  private_banking  choices  internal_systems  professionalization  high_net_worth 
february 2016 by jerryking
Subways for riders, not voters - The Globe and Mail
The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Oct. 29 2013,

To govern is to choose, and to choose poorly is to govern badly. A public dollar spent in one place means a dollar less to spend anywhere else. Money squandered over here spells belt-tightening over there. Welcome, friends, to the saga of Toronto public transit....Some of the transit problems have to do with a simple lack of public spending on transit. But a lot of what’s ailing the GTA is about what’s been done within the budget envelope. There have been so many completely wrongheaded spending decisions. And they’ve been motivated by transit politics, not transit economics....

In the 1970s, a subway was driven up the centre of the low-density Allen Expressway. A few years later, provincial industrial policy foisted an overpriced, rickety, made-in-Ontario technology onto the Scarborough Rapid Transit line. The nineties brought the Sheppard subway; transit in the centre of Toronto groans from an excess of demand, in part because so many precious public dollars were sunk into a subway whose ridership is lower than the busiest downtown streetcar route. Governments – municipal, provincial and even federal – time and again pushed for big-ticket projects that impress a desired group of voters far more than they serve real transit users.
editorials  Toronto  politics  transit  policy  misrule  mismanagement  decision_making  Octothorpe_Software  public_transit  public_spending  budgets  budgeting  choices  transit_politics  transit_economics 
october 2013 by jerryking
The agonies of too much choice
January 6, 2006 | Financial Times | by Robert Matthews.

Most people are easily overwhelmed by variety. Robert Matthews explores how this affects decisions from healthcare to mobile phones
The more options that were offered, the higher the probability of people avoiding complexity by walking away.....the level of choice offered to consumers should be tailored to their level of expertise, to reduce the risk that they deal with the complexity by walking away.
decision_making  psychology  choices  abundance  overwhelmed  walking_away 
february 2013 by jerryking
"We are What We Choose"
May 30, 2010 | Princeton University - 2010 Baccalaureate
remarks | Remarks by Jeff Bezos, as delivered to the Class of 2010.
"My grandfather looked at me, and after a bit of silence, he gently and
calmly said, "Jeff, one day you'll understand that it's harder to be
kind than clever." What I want to talk to you about today is the
difference between gifts and choices. Cleverness is a gift, kindness is a
choice. Gifts are easy -- they're given after all. Choices can be hard.
You can seduce yourself with your gifts if you're not careful, and if
you do, it'll probably be to the detriment of your choices."
===============================
Boyce Watkins: Your life is nothing more than a series of choices....you are the compilation of your choices!!
inspiration  commencement  Jeff_Bezos  life_skills  advice  cleverness  kindness  Princeton  choices  speeches  self-delusions  Boyce_Watkins 
july 2010 by jerryking
Insults are our chief export
Feb 4, 2003 | The Globe and Mail. pg. A.19 | Norman Spector. "Understand that to govern is to choose."

A visitor to Washington finds a capital fixated on the coming war in Iraq. As is Ottawa, judging from Question Period recently. With one difference: In Washington, the discussion has real consequences, including the possibility Saddam Hussein will use chemical weapons against U.S. troops. On Parliament Hill, the debate unfolds like a faculty seminar, or a convention of the federal New Democrats.

Rookie Foreign Minister Bill Graham -- himself a former professor -- also seems not to understand that to govern is to choose. He travelled to Washington last week to warn Colin Powell, a battle-scarred ex-general of dovish persuasion, that war could have untold consequences in the Mideast. If that's all there is, he could have saved the air fare.

Now, it's the turn of Trade Minister Pierre Pettigrew -- headed to Washington today on a "charm offensive" -- to discover how irrelevant we've become.

During my Washington visit, even former Clinton administration officials were embarrassed to ask about Jean Chrétien's position on Iraq. Instead, hoping I'd take the hint and steer discussion to parallels in the Great White North, they lampooned the "Euro-weenies" -- feckless leaders of people who consider themselves morally superior to Americans.
Norman_Spector  governance  hard_choices  choices 
november 2009 by jerryking

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