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jerryking : confrontations   14

Year in a Word: Thucydides’s trap
December 18, 2018 | Financial Times | Gideon Rachman |

Thucydides’s trap

Coined by Harvard professor Graham Allison to capture the idea that the rivalry between an established power and a rising one often ends in war....The ancient Greek historian Thucydides had observed that the Peloponnesian war (431BC-404BC) was caused by “the growth of Athenian power and the fear that this caused in Sparta”....
Graham_Allison  op-ed  rivalries  Thucydides_trap  China  China_rising  conflicts  endgame  Huawei  security_&_intelligence  superpowers  rising_powers  grand_strategy  strategic_thinking  U.S.foreign_policy  U.S.-China_relations  post-Cold_War  Donald_Trump  confrontations 
december 2018 by jerryking
America, China and the art of confrontation
December 17, 2018 | Financial Times | Gideon Rachman.

Tell me how this ends? was the despairing question attributed to American generals as they contemplated the quagmires in Vietnam and Iraq. The same question needs to be asked by US policymakers now, as they consider the escalating tensions between America and China.

The world’s two most powerful countries are locked into confrontations on a range of issues, including trade, technology, espionage and control of the South China Sea. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of interpreting these clashes. The first is that Donald Trump’s administration is determined to reset the US-China relationship. The second is that the US has now embarked on an effort to block China’s rise.

The first approach focuses on objectionable Chinese behaviour; the second objects to the very idea of China as a rival superpower.

These two ways of thinking point to very different potential endings. The first approach — the reset — ultimately ends with a deal. The second approach — blocking the rise of China — points to a prolonged and deepening antagonism......but, over the long term, both Washington and Beijing must think more profoundly about “how this ends”.

The Chinese need to recognise that there has been a profound and bipartisan shift in American thinking. So trying to hoodwink Mr Trump or wait him out will ultimately not work. Instead, China has to consider much more significant changes in its policies on everything from forced technology transfer, to the South China Sea. It could be its last chance to head off a long-term confrontation with the Americans.

The US also has some thinking to do. The hawks in Washington are relishing the more overt use of US power in their confrontation with China. But they too need to think about “how this ends”.

It is not realistic to think that the US can ultimately stop China’s rise.
China  China_rising  conflicts  endgame  Huawei  rivalries  security_&_intelligence  superpowers  Thucydides_Trap  rising_powers  grand_strategy  strategic_thinking  U.S.foreign_policy  post-Cold_War  Donald_Trump  confrontations  U.S.-China_relations 
december 2018 by jerryking
US and China must find ways to control their elites | Financial Times
July 1, 2018 | FT| Rana Foroohar. Pinboard saved article/artifact #25,000

Success rests on heading off popular unrest, rather than winning trade fights.
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Tension between the US and China is driving much of what is happening in the markets today. The analysis has focused on tariffs, currency manipulation, strategic technologies and which country has the most to win or lose in a trade war.

But there is a more important question to be asked when thinking about the future success and stability of each nation: which country will be better able to control its moneyed elites?

In his 1982 work The Rise and Decline of Nations, the economist Mancur Olson argues that civilisations tend to decline when the moneyed interests take over politics. That has clearly happened in both countries, where the levels of wealth inequality are not dissimilar; the top 1 per cent in China own about 30 per cent of the economy; in the US, the figure is 42 per cent.

........Chinese leaders also believe that America’s inability to curb its own elites will be the country’s downfall [Achilles’ heel]....America’s elite business class has, for decades now, sought to distract from rising oligopoly with hypocrisy. US companies complain vociferously about unfair Chinese trade practices and intellectual property theft.
U.S.  China  elitism  Rana_Foroohar  societal_collapse  the_One_Percent  self-interest  books  economists  Mancur_Olson  entrenched_interests  Achilles’_heel  Xi_Jinping  corruption  Chinese_Communist_Party  conflicts  confrontations  U.S.-China_relations 
july 2018 by jerryking
Picking Your Workplace Battles - WSJ
By SUE SHELLENBARGER
Dec. 16, 2014

Many people avoid confrontations, says Dr. Shelley Reciniello, New York, an executive coach and psychologist. But simmering frustrations can come out in other ways, fostering passive-aggressive behavior such as slacking off or backstabbing...It’s important to weigh your ability to control your emotions during a confrontation and to manage any counterfire from your opponent....More than 4 out of 5 corporate employees have conflicts with other employees over priorities, misunderstandings, resources or personality differences...When picking a battle, it is important to be willing to offer a solution or work with others to find one....It’s better to avoid some kinds of battles altogether, such as disputes over someone’s personality or style,
Communicating_&_Connecting  conflicts  confrontations  conversations  emotional_mastery  Managing_Your_Career  managing_people  managing_up  misunderstandings  passive-aggressive  stressful  Sue_Shellenbarger  workplaces 
december 2014 by jerryking
Turbulence Ahead for U.S., China Ties - WSJ.com
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Dec. 17, 2013
China  China_rising  Asia_Pacific  U.S.-China_relations  turbulence  rivalries  confrontations  conflicts 
december 2013 by jerryking
U.S. Directly Challenges China's Air Defense Zone - WSJ.com
Nov. 27, 2013 | WSJ | By Julian E. Barnes in Washington and Jeremy Page in Beijing

Beijing and Tokyo have competing claims to a group of islands in the East China Sea, and China moved over the weekend to solidify its standing by declaring the air-defense zone, which encompasses the disputed islands, requiring aircraft to report in before entering the zone.

The U.S. and key Asian allies, including Japan and South Korea, criticized the requirements as a power grab by Beijing, and the Pentagon vowed to show it wouldn't be bound by them.
Asia_Pacific  confrontations  provocations  maritime  security_&_intelligence  ASEAN  diplomacy  China  China_rising  PLA  U.S.foreign_policy  sovereignty  conflicts 
november 2013 by jerryking
Welcome home, Mr. MacIsaac
Jan 29, 2000 | The Globe and Mail pg. A.28 | by Murray Campbell. "

Executive members of the Toronto Police Association have
received advice from the Police Labor Institute, a Texas-based
organization whose motto is: "Change comes from power and power comes
from organization." Its director, Ron DeLord, is also president of the
16,000-member Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas. The
institute holds annual seminars on "power, politics and confrontation,"
where for $335 (U.S.) police unionists learn "how to become real power
brokers in the community.""
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Bill Maher October 5, 2018.

Real power isn't about making a scene or what makes you feel good. Power begets power.
change  confrontations  ProQuest  Murray_Campbell  organized_labour  police_force  political_power  power  unions  quotes  police_unions  self-interest  interests  organizational_structure  power_brokers  systematic_approaches  Toronto_Police_Association 
may 2010 by jerryking
Beyond the Rim
December 13, 2004 | Wall Street Journal | by MARK HELPRIN. The
21st century will be not just the century of terrorism: terrorism will
fade. It will be a naval century, with the Pacific its center, and
challenges in the remotest places of the world offered not by dervishes
and crazy-men but by a great power that is at last and at least
America's equal. Unfortunately, it is in the U.S. nature neither to
foresee nor prepare for what lies beyond the rim. With its new economic
resources China has embarked upon a military traverse from reliance
upon mass to devotion to quality, with stress upon war in space, the
oceans, and the ether--three areas of unquestioned American superiority.
China  China_rising  confrontations  cyber_security  cyber_warfare  geopolitics  maritime  Mark_Helprin  mercantilism  PACOM  rising_powers  security_&_intelligence  South_China_Sea  space_warfare  unprepared  U.S.-China_relations 
march 2010 by jerryking
Managing China's Rise
June 2005 | ATLANTIC MAGAZINE | By Benjamin Schwarz.
Contending effectively with China's ambitions requires a better
understanding of our own. (1) Acknowledge that the pace of China's
military modernization and the nature of its geopolitical alignments are
very much tied to the post—Cold War imbalance of power in Washington's
favor. (2) The U.S. should conduct whatever foreign policies it deems
appropriate—but it must recognize that actions it perceives as selfless,
others will most likely see in an entirely different light.
..Intervention by a dominant power accelerates the rise of other great
powers and ensures their wariness, if not their hostility, toward it.(3)
Rethink how Washington defines a "China threat."(4) examine the
strategic implications raised when regional and great powers emerge.
Far from discouraging the rise of China and other independent powers,
such as the European Union and Japan, Washington should recognize the
significant benefits that can result.
China  geopolitics  China_rising  U.S._Navy  U.S.-China_relations  PACOM  introspection  grand_strategy  strategic_thinking  U.S.foreign_policy  post-Cold_War  misinterpretations  Thucydides_Trap  selflessness  rising_powers  rivalries  confrontations  imbalances 
march 2010 by jerryking

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