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jerryking : contingency_planning   36

We need to be better at predicting bad outcomes
September 2019 | Financial Times | by Tim Harford.

A question some of us ask all too often, and some of us not often enough: what if it all [jk: our plan] goes wrong?.....we don’t think about worst-case scenarios in the right way......
The first problem is that our sense of risk is pretty crude. The great psychologist Amos Tversky joked that most of us have three categories when thinking about probabilities: “gonna happen”, “not gonna happen” and “maybe”.....It would be helpful if our sense of risk was a little more refined; intuitively, it is hard to grasp the difference between a risk of one in a billion and that of one in a thousand. Yet, for a gambler — or someone in the closely related business of insurance — there is all the difference in the world.....research by Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock and Hal Arkes suggests that making a serious attempt to put probabilities on uncertain future events might help us in other ways: the process makes us more humble, more moderate and better able to discern shades of grey. Trying to forecast is about more than a successful prediction......we can become sidetracked by the question of whether the worst case is likely. Rather than asking “will this happen?”, we should ask “what would we do if it did?”

The phrase “worst-case scenario” probably leads us astray: anyone can dream up nightmare scenarios.....To help us think sensibly about these worst-case possibilities, Gary Klein, psychologist and author of Seeing What Others Don’t, has argued for conducting “pre-mortems” — or hypothetical postmortems. Before embarking on a project, imagine receiving a message from the future: the project failed, and spectacularly. Now ask yourself: why? Risks and snares will quickly suggest themselves — often risks that can be anticipated and prevented.......Contingency planning is not always easy......woes that would result both as the “base case” (the truth) and a “worst-case scenario” (the government sucking in its stomach while posing for a selfie).
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In our increasingly airbrushed world, it becomes ever more necessary to ask the unfashionable questions like ‘what could possibly go wrong?’ - and then plan for it...
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Humanity's survival may well rely on the ability of our imaginations to explore alternative futures in order to begin building the communities that can forestall or endure worst-case catastrophes.
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Amos_Tversky  anticipating  base_rates  beforemath  books  contingency_planning  discernment  failure  forecasting  foresight  frequency_and_severity  humility  nuanced  predictions  preparation  probabilities  risk-assessment  risks  Tim_Harford  uncertainty  worst-case 
september 2019 by jerryking
Can Trump Handle a Foreign Crisis?
Feb. 7, 2019 | WSJ | By Peggy Noonan.

He’ll face one eventually, and there’s good reason to worry the administration will be unprepared.

Someday this White House will face a sudden, immediate and severe foreign-policy crisis..... past and present officials of this administration are concerned on how the White House would handle a crisis......History resides in both the unexpected and the long-predicted. Russia moves against a U.S. ally, testing Washington’s commitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty; a coordinated cyber action by our adversaries takes down the American grid; China, experiencing political unrest within a background of a slowing economy, decides this is a good time to move on Taiwan; someone bombs Iran’s missile sites; Venezuela explodes in violence during a military crackdown; there’s an accidental launch somewhere..... historian Margaret MacMillan said ....“I think we should never underestimate the sheer role of accident.”....Everything depends on personnel, process and planning. The president and his top advisers have to work closely, with trust and confidence, quickly comprehending the shape of the challenge and its implications. There must be people around him with wisdom, judgment, experience. They must know their jobs and be able to execute them under pressure. Clear lines of communication are key between both individuals and agencies.....keep their eyes on the million moving pieces, military and diplomatic, that comprise a strategy.......During the Berlin airlift, thought at the time to be the height of the Cold War, Secretary of State George C. Marshall, who’d been Army chief of staff during World War II, was asked how worried he was. “I’ve seen worse,” he replied. He had. ......“No administration is ready for its first crisis,” says Richard Haass, who was a member of George H.W. Bush’s NSC and is author of “A World in Disarray.” “What you learn is that the machinery isn’t adequate, or people aren’t ready.” First crises trigger reforms of procedures so that second ones are better handled. ......There is no way, really, to simulate a crisis, because you don’t know what’s coming, and key people are busy doing their regular jobs. And all administrations, up until the point they’re tested, tend to be overconfident. What can they do to be readier? Think, study, talk and plan.....For a modern example of good process, personnel and management, there is the Cuban missile crisis. .....the stakes couldn’t have been higher.......It might be good to have regular situation-room meetings on what-ifs, and how to handle what-ifs, and to have deep contingency planning with intelligence, military and civilian leaders discussing scenarios. “Put yourself in a position,” says Mr. Haass, “where you’re less unread when a crisis does occur.”.......Margaret MacMillan again: People not only get used to peace and think it’s “the normal state of affairs,” they get used to the idea that any crisis can be weathered, because they have been in the past. But that’s no guarantee of anything, is it?
adversaries  chance  contingency_planning  crisis  Donald_Trump  U.S.foreign_policy  JFK  Margaret_MacMillan  overconfidence  Richard_Haass  security_&_intelligence  unexpected  White_House  unprepared  accidents  Cuban_Missile_Crisis  luck  Peggy_Noonan  preparation  readiness  George_Marshall  normality  unforeseen 
february 2019 by jerryking
If you want to get ahead, don’t be afraid to get dirty
January 29, 2019 | The Globe and Mail | ROY OSING - SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
PUBLISHED 6 HOURS.

* ACT FAST. When you are confronted with a formidable challenge, make a decision quickly; overanalyzing doesn’t usually lead to success because it squanders your most precious asset – time.Success demands that you act fast and not waste valuable resources by over-complicating the route to a decision.
* HAVE A ‘WHAT IF’ PLAN
Have a contingency plan for when your chosen course of action doesn’t work out the way you intended.
* DON’T CHASE PERFECTION
Embrace imperfection; there is no such thing as a perfect anything.
* FIND DOERS. Find people who have a proven track record of doing things fast.
* PLAY IT UNSAFE. Work outside your comfort zone.
* SHUN THE RULES. Rules exist to make us compliant and fall in with what others do; they are a set of standards imposed by others....Bottom line: Broken rules are the cost of doing messy business.
* FORGET YOUR JOB DESCRIPTION. Job descriptions compartmentalize the activity of an organization; they specify the role we must play and the results we are expected to deliver.
* STAY FOCUSED. Try many things in rapid succession but avoid multitasking. ....Success doesn’t come from juggling several balls. It comes when we are focused on a single outcome and dedicate our heart and soul to seeing it through.
* SCREW UP. Don’t be afraid to make mistakes.
contingency_planning  focus  good_enough  messiness  mistakes  monotasking  risk-taking  speed  Roy_Osing  personal_accomplishments  Plan_B  doers 
january 2019 by jerryking
My top 5 investing lessons after 30 years as an economist
September 25th | The Globe and Mail | DAVID ROSENBERG.

After 30 years of experience as a Street economist, you pick up a lot of learning lessons – especially from the mistakes made along the way. Here are my top five below:

* Don’t put all your eggs in one basket (concentrated portfolios but diversified geographically and across the asset classes);
* There is no such thing as a sure thing (the forecast is just a base case across a continuum of possibilities across a distribution curve);
* Marry your partner, not your forecast – it may not love you back (what gets economists into trouble is lack of humility; admitting you’re wrong is never easy);
* If you don’t have a Plan B, you don’t have a plan. If you are wrong, it is imperative to know in what direction – and delineate the new course of action;
* Anything that can’t last forever, won’t last forever.
concentration_risk  economists  investing  lessons_learned  Plan_B  diversification  Bay_Street  Wall_Street  market_corrections  bear_markets  mistakes  forecasting  economic_cycles  beyondtheU.S.  Gluskin_Sheff  David_Rosenberg  probabilities  humility  contingency_planning  never_forever  asset_classes 
september 2017 by jerryking
Canada should prepare for life without NAFTA - The Globe and Mail
LAWRENCE HERMAN
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Aug. 22, 2017

Canada should be considering a world without the NAFTA or, possibly, without even the Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement. Contingency planning is what trade-policy formulation is all about. Here are some factors to consider.

First, the NAFTA (like the FTA before it) is about preferential treatment. Ending those preferences doesn’t mean Canadian companies would be excluded from the U.S. market. Not in the least. Vast trade relations exist between the United States, China, Japan, Russia and the entire European Union, none of which have a free-trade agreement with the United States.

Second, even without preferential tariff rates for Canada, most have been reduced to zero anyway as a result of the World Trade Organization Agreement, so their NAFTA value is worth much less today than in 1994. On the non-goods side, the WTO Agreement ensures Canadian services and intellectual property rights of non-discriminatory treatment in the U.S. market.

Third, while the binational panel system for reviewing trade cases would disappear, agreement on that system predated the advent of the WTO and its own effective multilateral dispute resolution system, Canada has used the WTO system effectively over the years in dealing with the U.S., including in the ongoing softwood lumber dispute.

None of this diminishes the benefits of a successful outcome in the NAFTA 2.0 exercise for all three countries. But given where we are today, judging from Mr. Trump’s repeated public pronouncements, the vision of North America setting an example to the world has turned into a one-sided Trumpian quest for advantage.

Without the essential ingredient of common purpose, Canadian trade policy has to look beyond the precipice. No deal, as has been oft said, is better than a bad one.
contingency_planning  NAFTA  Donald_Trump  exits  crossborder  renegotiations  say_"no"  national_interests  free-trade  protectionism  beyondtheU.S. 
august 2017 by jerryking
Cyber Heroes | Ivey Alumni | Ivey Business School
Craig believes that businesses and individuals, even countries, must accept that we live in an “era of compromise.” “You have to understand that somebody already has your sensitive data, likely a former employee,” he says. “Have you rehearsed roles for when that becomes public? Does the CEO know what she needs to say? Does the IT team know what they need to do? Being prepared with an appropriate response to data loss is a leading practice that helps maintain, or even build, an organization’s reputation.”
alumni  business-continuity  CEOs  contingency_planning  cyber_security  data_breaches  insurance  Ivey  rehearsals  risks  vulnerabilities 
march 2017 by jerryking
From terrorism to technological disruption: Leaders need to tackle risk - The Globe and Mail
DAVID ISRAELSON
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016

“Not only do they have to think about and worry about economic changes and what their competitors are going to do, they now have a whole new level of political and regulatory risk,” Ms. Ecker says.

“You can’t predict in some cases how a policy maker is going to move. We’re seeing that in China now.”

At the beginning of 2016, as markets began a steep slide in China, that country’s regulators twice activated a “circuit breaker” mechanism to halt trading, only to abandon it after it appeared to make the drop in the market even worse.

The lesson is that sometimes “business practices and even business products that seem acceptable today, for whatever reason, when something happens can be considered things you shouldn’t be doing. There’s more policy unpredictability than ever before,” Ms. Ecker says.

“In an increasingly risky world, a CEO needs to be increasingly flexible and adaptable. You also need to have a team and know what the latest threat might be.”

That isn’t necessarily easy, she adds. “There’s no rule book. When I was in politics, people used to ask me what we should anticipate. I’d tell them, ‘Read science fiction books.’ ”....CEOs in today’s risky world also need people skills that may not have been necessary before, says Shaharris Beh, director of Hackernest, a Toronto-based not-for-profit group that connects worldwide tech companies.

“CEOs have always needed strong skills around rapid decision-making and failure mitigation. In today’s hypercompetitive startup business climate, leaders need two more: pivot-resilience and proleptic consensus leadership,” he says.

“Pivot-resilience is the ability to tolerate the stress of gut-wrenching risks when dramatically shifting strategy. In other words, be able to take the blame gracefully while still warranting respect among your team members.”

Proleptic consensus leadership is especially important for startups, Mr. Beh says. “It’s the ability to garner the team’s support for taking big risks by giving them the assurance of what backup plans are in place should things go sour.”

This consensus building “is how you keep support,” he adds. In a volatile economy, “people can jump ship at any time or even unintentionally sabotage things if they’re not convinced a particular course of action will work.” So you have to constantly persuade.
science_fiction  law_firms  law  risks  CEOs  risk-management  disruption  BLG  leaders  pivots  resilience  consensus  risk-taking  contingency_planning  unpredictability  political_risk  regulatory_risk  policymakers  flexibility  adaptability  anticipating  people_skills  circuit_breakers 
february 2016 by jerryking
The key to winning a dogfight? Focus - The Globe and Mail
HARVEY SCHACHTER
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Sunday, Dec. 14 2014,

Keep your focus: Stay abreast of your field, reading widely and probing for information. His team’s knowledge of how to handle the dire situation they faced, from outwitting the enemy after being hit, to the latest survival training when plunged into the water, kept them alive. “The better informed you are, the better you will be,” he said....to get better you have to debrief after your skirmishes....Do you consistently get the most important things done at work? Your day is jammed with many activities, some important and some minutia. You need to know: If you could only accomplish only one thing, what that would be. Events will arise during the day that require your attention, and you must deal with them. But he notes that we often find ourselves in reactive mode, which can sometimes be misguided. This question addresses the active mode, setting out a plan of what to accomplish for the day...How do you and your teammates prepare for each day’s biggest challenges at work? Top guns have lots of computer displays surrounding them in the cockpit. Because of that complexity, they need a simple plan and to spend time discussing the “what ifs,” so when plans need to be altered, they can manoeuvre effectively. “It’s the same with business people. If you’re surprised, you will have trouble,” he warned.
Vietnam_War  veterans  focus  lessons_learned  U.S._Navy  Harvey_Schachter  feedback  scenario-planning  anticipating  preparation  contingency_planning  debriefs  post-mortems  simplicity  off-plan  priorities  surprises  market_intelligence  beforemath 
december 2014 by jerryking
A fresh approach to growth
October 13, 2010

In Canada, fresh-cut fruits and vegetables and packaged salads represent nearly 20% of the total produce available in grocery stores. The industry is worth an estimated $14 billion a year in North America.

“Perishable commodities are as unpredictable as the stock market,” Karr says. “It’s a complex business because there are so many variables that are impossible to control, such as weather and growing conditions. In my world, you always need a contingency plan.”
fresh_produce  Canada  entrepreneur  salads  OPMA  fruits  vegetables  perishables  commodities  unpredictability  weather  contingency_planning  grocery 
february 2013 by jerryking
Note From the Edge: Sometimes You Can't Control Your Success - WSJ.com
September 2, 1997 | WSJ | By HAL LANCASTER.

An Ex-Manager Says You Can't Always Control Your Success

Mr. Curnutt says. He speaks for a large populace of middle managers who aren't golden boys being groomed for senior management, who will likely rise only so far and then stay there.

But there is more these managers can do to bust out of their confining boxes. Mr. Curnutt always wanted to be a manager and he says now he would have been better off majoring in business or accounting from the start. I think he also could have been more aggressive in promoting himself, particularly after getting his M.B.A. Perhaps he could have created a new position, using some of the skills he learned in his M.B.A. program, instead of waiting for the company to identify an opportunity for him.

Even then, of course, things might not work out. Not everyone is meant to ride the gravy train. But you have everything to gain and nothing to lose. Remember, those who stand in place the longest are the most vulnerable. Ask Mr. Curnutt.
action-oriented  beyond_one's_control  contingency_planning  crisis  crisis_management  first_movers  Hal_Lancaster  immobilize  middle_management  paralyze  self-promotion  stress_response  Sue_Shellenbarger  uncertainty 
december 2012 by jerryking
Learn 'Languages' And You'll Always Land on Your Feet - WSJ.com
October 21, 1997|WSJ | By HAL LANCASTER.

Lesson 1: Learn as many "languages" as possible. Through all this, he learned the value of being a business linguist. He spoke fluent finance, law, investor relations, marketing and brand management.

"It helps your credibility when you can speak the language of other functions," he says.

Lesson 2: Build bridges to other functions.

During his six years at Allied, Mr. Simon had to deal with issues involving the company's toxic-waste cleanups. "We had all these Superfund sites and I had to learn about every one of them," he says.

So he sought out experts in other departments. "I worked a lot with people in strategic planning," he says.

He believed all areas of corporate communications -- media, investor, employee, community -- should be unified, so he spurned job offers that would pigeonhole him and sought training that would broaden him.

Lesson 3: Sometimes you've got to go down to move up.

In 1987, Mr. Simon joined Inspiration Resources, a mining company looking to create a combined media and investor-relations department. "I traded way down in size, but it was a chance to develop more broadly," he says. "It's easier to be a Goliath, but you learn a lot more with the Davids."

Lesson 4: Differentiate yourself by articulating your own philosophy.

When headhunters called, Mr. Simon would discuss the needs of the job, and often recommend someone for the post, even if he wasn't interested himself.

Lesson 5: Don't freeze in the midst of chaos -- act.

Within a year, the banking company was acquired by Fleet Bank and many Natwest people "gave up," Mr. Simon says. But he prepared a three-page summary on public-relations issues confronting the combined banks and requested a meeting with Fleet's vice chairman. The result: He was invited to join the integration team and his employment was extended a year.
next_play  Hal_Lancaster  Managing_Your_Career  indispensable  lessons_learned  mergers_&_acquisitions  M&A  rules_of_the_game  advice  crisis_management  contingency_planning  first_movers  crisis  chaos  stress_response  immobilize  paralyze  bridge-builders  action-oriented  post-deal_integration  creating_valuable_content 
december 2012 by jerryking
Making the Change From Middle Manager To a Seat at the Top - WSJ.com
July 7, 1998 | WSJ | By HAL LANCASTER

Less surprising, delivering results matters. Thinking strategically, being persuasive, being politically adroit and having a "significantly broader organizational awareness" also tend to make up a successful manager, ...Earn respect for being exceptionally good at what you do and show that you can run a business independently. Translation: Deliver results without a lot of hand-holding....a seldom-mentioned trait: consistency. "They must show consistency in the decisions they make and in their behavior," ..."A lot of people fail to make the next move because they really don't understand" how to assess risk," she says. "Or they don't have a Plan B."
Hal_Lancaster  ksfs  Managing_Your_Career  movingonup  executive_management  risk-assessment  risk-management  contingency_planning  JCK  transitions  companywide  middle_management  consistency  decision_making  Plan_B  off-plan  hand-holding  strategic_thinking  personal_accomplishments 
december 2012 by jerryking
Nine key traits to make the shift from failure to success - The Globe and Mail
HARVEY SCHACHTER

Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Oct. 09 2012

1. Rebounders accept failure: They hate to fail, but they accept it, and try to fail productively, learning from the experience, as the inventive Thomas Edison did with his many failed experiments.

2. Rebounders compartmentalize options: They are often emotional people, with drive and passion. John Bogle, who founded Vanguard Group, was furious when he was pushed out of a previous job and even had revenge fantasies. But he didn’t spend time trying to get even. Rebounders control the emotional fallout of their struggle (i.e. emotional mastery).

3. Rebounders have a bias toward action: After Tammy Duckworth lost both legs when her U.S. military helicopter was shot down in Iraq, her first impulse was to get to work at rehabilitation and her new life. Rebounders keep pushing, keep doing.

4. Rebounders change their minds: They can discard old thinking, give up on long-held dreams, and adjust their ambitions to evolving situations. They don’t cling to ideas that are proving hopeless.

5. Rebounders prepare for things to go wrong: They don’t expect things to go their own way. They are cautious optimists, always aware their plans may go awry.

6. Rebounders are comfortable with discomfort: They are willing to accept hardships and inconveniences as long as they feel they are getting closer to their goal. Singer/songwriter Lucinda Williams could have signed a major recording deal years earlier if she had agreed to make the songs the music companies wanted, but she stayed true to her own vision, even if it meant often barely having the money to pay her rent.

7. Rebounders are willing to wait: They are determined to succeed on their own terms, and can accept that it might take a long time. “But rebounders don’t just wait positively for a lucky break, or do the same thing over and over. They constantly learn and get better, continually improving the likelihood of success until the odds tilt in their favour,” Mr. Newman observes.

8. Rebounders have heroes: Many of the rebounders he met are romantics, seeing their role as in some way historic, and they are entranced by some mentor or historical figure who they want to emulate. Vanguard’s Mr. Bogle, for example, often alluded to the naval battles of Admiral Lord Nelson and named his mutual fund company after his hero’s ship.

9. Rebounders have more than passion: We are told we need passion for success, but rebounders realize it requires more than that. They have a special drive and resilience that allows them to capitalize on their passion.
bouncing_back  resilience  Harvey_Schachter  emotional_mastery  personality_types/traits  ksfs  long-term  patience  preparation  contingency_planning  reflections  self-analysis  self-awareness  thinking_tragically  discomforts  strategic_patience  adaptability  inconveniences  passions  heroes  pragmatism  compartmentalization  action-oriented  hardships  next_play 
october 2012 by jerryking
Introduction to the Case Method
(1) Define the central problem. (Problems vs. symptoms, sequence, linkages)
(2) Formulate the alternatives. (3 or 4 are usually sufficient. Include maintenance of the status quo).
(3) Analyze the alternatives. (Uncover the nature, proportion, function, and underlying relationships among a set of variables). Lay out assumptions. Review assumptions to see how dependent conclusions are on the assumptions made. Contingency plans in the case that assumptions don't hold. Opposing arguments addressed? Pros/cons of each alternative.
(4) Recommend a solution. (Make it clear cut. Avoid qualifications)
(5) Specify a plan of action. (Potential reactions)
(6) Prepare contingency plans.
case_studies  business_schools  symptoms  howto  frameworks  problem_framing  problem_solving  linkages  marketing_math  critical_thinking  action_plans  contingency_planning  alternatives  assumptions  argumentation  sequencing 
july 2012 by jerryking
Some Preliminary Thoughts on Action Planning and Implementation
??| |??| John J. Gabarro and Leonard A. Schlesinger.

Establish credibility amongst co-workers by repeated sharing clean, coherent vision and plan of action. Convert vision to strategy.
first90days  execution  implementation  listening  contingency_planning  anticipating  influence  action_plans 
july 2012 by jerryking
Sales Spurt, Growing Pains Leave Karaoke Maker Singing the Blues - WSJ.com
July 29, 2003 | WSJ | By JEFF BAILEY - Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.

Singing Machine Co., a Coconut Creek, Fla., maker of karaoke machines. But rather than celebrating its success, these days the executives at Singing Machine are scrambling to avoid insolvency. The company's experience is a warning to all entrepreneurs about the dangers of rapid growth. Outside auditors last month noted that a default on a borrowing agreement "raises substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern."

"It's a classic business-school case of growing pains," says Y.P. Chan, 39 years old and recently named Singing Machine's chief operating officer.

Every year, thousands of smaller companies go belly up because entrepreneurs aren't prepared to manage rapid growth. Accustomed to scratching for every sale, when the throttle is finally thrown wide open, too many assume it is clear sailing and fail to ask some important questions.
[chart]

Are your finances solid enough to support a bigger company, or are you counting on lush profits to do it? If you load up on inventory to satisfy demand, how will you survive if prices plunge? Look around -- does management have experience running a bigger enterprise? Look at your competitors -- are they bigger and likely to weather tough times better? Or are they also small companies that might get overextended and slash prices to stay afloat?
small_business  growth  bankruptcies  warning_signs  insolvency  contingency_planning  hard_times  high-growth  inventories  risk-management  overextended 
may 2012 by jerryking
Because one day, Tories, you’ll be out of office too - The Globe and Mail
preston manning
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Jan. 11, 2012

Build and maintain your “democratic political infrastructure” – the intellectual capital generators for politicians, the training programs for political activists, and the political communications vehicles – when in opposition but continue to build and maintain it, outside of the civil service and through private donations, even after becoming the governing party.

To fail to do so is to court eventual political collapse and impotence from which it may take years, even decades, to recover – witness the current state of the federal Liberals.
Preston_Manning  contingency_planning  discipline  political_infrastructure  loyal_opposition  institutions  institution-building  politicians  training_programs 
january 2012 by jerryking
In Kim Jong-il Death, an Extensive Intelligence Failure - NYTimes.com
By MARK LANDLER and CHOE SANG-HUN
Published: December 19, 2011

“We have clear plans about what to do if North Korea attacks, but not if the North Korean regime unravels,” said Michael J. Green, a former Asia adviser in the Bush administration. “Every time you do these scenarios, one of the first objectives is trying to find out what’s going on inside North Korea.”

In many countries, that would involve intercepting phone calls between government officials or peering down from spy satellites. And indeed, American spy planes and satellites scan the country. Highly sensitive antennas along the border between South and North Korea pick up electronic signals. South Korean intelligence officials interview thousands of North Koreans who defect to the South each year.

And yet remarkably little is known about the inner workings of the North Korean government. Pyongyang, officials said, keeps sensitive information limited to a small circle of officials, who do not talk.
security_&_intelligence  failure  North_Korea  South_Korea  U.S.  SIGINT  scenario-planning  contingency_planning  eavesdropping 
december 2011 by jerryking
Why Is the U.S. Rehearsing for a Chinese Invasion of Japan?
Sep 23 2010 | The Atlantic | Max Fisher. China's increasingly
aggressive foreign policy and the volatility of its relationship with
Japan and its East Asia neighbors concerns the U.S. Someday in the
future, our influence abroad, and in East Asia especially, will wane.
The Obama admin. wants to guide East Asian politics in a direction
beneficial to long term U.S. interests which are 4-fold: establish a
mechanism for peaceful conflict resolution, so that war is less likely;
build precedent for the rule of international law, so that China can't
simply bully its neighbors; keep the U.S. involved in East Asian
politics so we aren't shut out; and prevent China from dominating the
South China Sea. The oil-rich sea lane has become a strategically
crucial link from East Asia to the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East,
Africa, and beyond & whoever controls it will control the ability
of navies--whether Chinese, U.S., Indian, or NATO--to project force
across the Eastern & Western hemispheres.
rehearsals  East_Asia  China  China_rising  Japan  U.S._Navy  maritime  contingency_planning  U.S.foreign_policy  rule_of_law  aggressive  conflict_resolution  South_China_Sea 
september 2010 by jerryking
Managing the Future Workplace? Start Here. - WSJ.com
SEPT. 19, 2010 | Wall Street Journal | By ALAN MURRAY. How
should managers behave in this new economic order? Key trends include:
trust in business being at an all time low; continued govt. involvement
in the economy; credit remaining hard to come by; U.S. consumers
sitting on their wallets; Asia will likely continue to rise, and
technological change will likely continue to accelerate. Stay flexible.
Devour data. Be (somewhat) humble. Communicate. Plan for contingencies.
Be proactive. Insist on candor. Stay involved. Keep your organization
flat. Cross-train your talent.Assess your team.Use your judgment.
managing_uncertainty  workplaces  Alan_Murray  technological_change  future  organizational_culture  flexibility  resilience  contingency_planning  cross-training  data  data_driven  proactivity  humility  candour  Asia  credit  consumer_spending  judgment  teams  accelerated_lifecycles  trends  trustworthiness 
september 2010 by jerryking
Gates Says U.S. Lacks a Policy to Thwart Iran - NYTimes.com
April 17, 2010 | New York Times | By DAVID E. SANGER and THOM
SHANKER. In an interview on Friday, General Jones declined to speak
about the memorandum. But he said: “On Iran, we are doing what we said
we were going to do. The fact that we don’t announce publicly our entire
strategy for the world to see doesn’t mean we don’t have a strategy
that anticipates the full range of contingencies — we do.”

But in his memo, Mr. Gates wrote of a variety of concerns, including the
absence of an effective strategy should Iran choose the course that
many government and outside analysts consider likely: Iran could
assemble all the major parts it needs for a nuclear weapon — fuel,
designs and detonators — but stop just short of assembling a fully
operational weapon.
Iran  Obama  Robert_Gates  memoranda  James_Jones  nuclear  contingency_planning  Michael_Mullen  David_Sanger  SecDef 
april 2010 by jerryking
North Korea and Kim Jong Il: Will the Regime Collapse? - WSJ.com
MARCH 26, 2010 | Wall Street Journal | by y B.R. MYERS. If the regime collapses, will the rest of the world be ready?
North_Korea  collapse-anxiety  contingency_planning  societal_collapse 
march 2010 by jerryking
Air force takes cue from sci-fi - The Globe and Mail
Jul. 15, 2009 | Globe & Mail | Steven Chase. Disruptions
such as a pandemic could dramatically shift the game plan for staffing
the air force, which like other organizations will already face a major
challenge in the next decade: the slowing growth of Canada's labour
force.
RCAF  scenario-planning  flu_outbreaks  contingency_planning  pandemics 
july 2009 by jerryking
Recession Strategies: Companies Need to Focus on Future as Well as Present - WSJ.com
JUNE 22, 2009 | Wall Street Journal | Executive Briefing:

In Dr. Govindarajan’s three-box framework, Box One involves managing the present—for example, improving the efficiency of today’s businesses. Box Two involves selectively forgetting the past. And Box Three? That’s about creating the future. Often, Dr. Govindarajan maintains, companies spend too much of their time managing Box One—the present—and think that’s strategy. Instead, he argues, companies need to spend more time and energy on thinking about Box Two and Box Three.

Preparing for the Recovery
Despite the recession, companies must do more than just play defense.
When thinking about innovation, companies need to go beyond cost cutting
and spend more time thinking about what (Vijay Govindarajan) terms as
"Box Two and Box Three—selectively forgetting the past and creating the
future".

----
BUSINESS INSIGHT:Can companies really plan today for the year 2025?

DR. GOVINDARAJAN: You cannot plan for the year 2025, but you can prepare for it. There’s a big difference in my mind between planning for the future and preparing for it. Preparing for the future simply involves asking what the broad trends are. If people in your organization can at least have a shared perspective on some of the big, nonlinear shifts that may happen, you can begin to think about actions that may be relevant if such shifts occur—if say, technology in your business changes in certain ways. You want to do your current plan in a way that prepares your organization for the future.

The future is full of surprises; you know that. What you want is to be able to prepare to respond and adapt and benefit from surprises. And that’s what happens when you explicitly think about 2025 in 2009.
breakthroughs  contingency_planning  cost-cutting  economic_downturn  far-sightedness  foresight  forward_looking  high-risk  innovation  large_payoffs  nonlinear  offensive_tactics  recessions  scenario-planning  strategy  surprises  Vijay_Govindarajan 
june 2009 by jerryking
Anticipating Corporate Crises - WSJ.com
SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 | Wall Street Journal | by JOANN S. LUBLIN
and CARI TUNA

Many U.S. boards don't cope well with a crisis. But some directors are
now ratcheting up efforts to anticipate, and avert, trouble. Too many
boards are stocked with poorly prepared directors, who fail to ask
enough tough questions or adequately scrutinize management, governance
specialists say.
Joann_S._Lublin  anticipating  boards_&_directors_&_governance  preparation  risk-management  risk-assessment  scenario-planning  contingency_planning  forward_looking  crisis  hard_questions 
april 2009 by jerryking

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