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jerryking : conundrums   5

Why we find it hard to imagine and plan for worst-case scenarios
SEPTEMBER 14, 2017 | The Globe and Mail | WENCY LEUNG.

When it comes to facing the risks of large-scale disasters, whether it’s the threat of nuclear war, a terror attack, a hurricane or raging wildfire, many people have a hard time envisioning – let alone preparing for – worst-case scenarios.

"grab-and-go" bag:

water, space blankets, flashlights and batteries, a hand-crank radio with a charger for her cellphone, a stash of garbage bags ("They can be used for keeping people warm as well, by cutting holes for the heads," she says), first-aid kits, a spare pair of glasses, food packages, waterproof matches, an extra supply of her husband's medication, hygiene products (deodorant, wet wipes, hand sanitizer, toilet liners, dental floss, toothbrush, toothpaste), tissues and two decks of cards..... a rope, a shovel and two or three blankets in the car......When it comes to facing the risks of large-scale disasters, whether it's the threat of nuclear war, a terror attack, a hurricane or raging wildfire, many people have a hard time envisioning – let alone preparing for – worst-case scenarios......New Yorker journalist Kathryn Schulz writes in her Pulitzer Prize-winning feature on the likelihood of a large-scale Cascadia earthquake. "Where we stumble is in conjuring up grim futures in a way that helps to avert them." .....research on the evacuation of the World Trade Center in New York on Sept. 11, 2001....workers were concerned about leaving without the approval of their bosses.....delayed vacating the buildings to attend to last-minute tasks, such as gathering their personal items, making phone calls or shutting down their computers,.....people want to make a decision as a group, and then if some people can't join a group, they'll wait for that person, for example."......people can underestimate the danger they face and be overconfident in their ability to overcome it.......In their chapter of Risk Conundrums: Solving Unsolvable Problems...authors Howard Kunreuther, Paul Slovic and Kimberly Olson point out this kind of "availability bias" can make people underestimate the likelihood of a disaster before it occurs, and overestimate it afterward. Such thinking helps explain why people often buy insurance right after a disaster, but then cancel their policies after they've had several loss-free years. It's difficult to convince them that they should celebrate not having suffered any loss and still maintain insurance coverage......Socioeconomic or contextual factors, which include the level of an individual's trust in institutions, also play a role in how they perceive and react to risk..... there's no one-size-fits-all approach to encouraging the public to prepare for a disaster, he says. Warnings and preparedness efforts would be more effective if they were targeted to specific groups, based on the way they perceive risk.
worst-case  disasters  imagination  frequency_and_severity  9/11  denials  optimism_bias  availability_bias  books  one-size-fits-all  overconfidence  risk-perception  improbables  disaster_preparedness  conundrums  Pulitzer_Prize 
september 2017 by jerryking
Capital Journal: Republicans Grapple With the Rand Paul Conundrum - WSJ
By GERALD F. SEIB
Updated June 2, 2014

Rand Paul is, of course, the junior senator from Kentucky and a rising star in his party. He mixes tea-party appeal with the libertarian instincts he inherited from his father, former Rep. Ron Paul .

He attracts some constituencies other Republicans have a hard time reaching—college-age voters, in particular—and is diligently trying to reach out to minority groups that have slipped further from the grasp of others in his party. Indeed, the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, an organization not known for its close relations with Republicans, invited him to appear at its July annual meeting, Mr. Paul's office says, though a scheduling conflict likely will prevent him from appearing....Mr. Paul doesn't consider himself an isolationist, of course. In fact, in an op-ed written earlier this year for the Washington Post, he essentially described the debate between isolationism and interventionism as a phony one: "False choices between being everywhere all of the time and nowhere any of the time are fodder for debate on Sunday morning shows or newspaper columns. Real foreign policy is made in the middle...."
Gerald_Seib  Rand_Paul  GOP  U.S.foreign_policy  millennials  NAACP  isolationism  false_choices  constituencies  conundrums 
march 2015 by jerryking
A conundrum for our times: How should we deal with famous felons? - The Globe and Mail
LEAH MCLAREN
The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Jan. 15 2015

redemption after conviction is a tricky business for stars – one that is mostly based on the public’s sense of betrayal over the perceived gap between perception and reality.
Leah_McLaren  celebrities  conundrums 
january 2015 by jerryking

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