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jerryking : conventional_wisdom   16

To Power A.I., Start-Up Creates a Giant Computer Chip -
Aug. 19, 2019 The New York Times By Cade Metz.

New A.I. systems rely on neural networks. Loosely based on the network of neurons in the human brain, these complex mathematical systems can learn tasks by analyzing vast amounts of data. By pinpointing patterns in thousands of cat photos, for instance, a neural network can learn to recognize a cat.

That requires a particular kind of computing power. Today, most companies analyze data with help from graphics processing units, or G.P.U.s. These chips were originally designed to render images for games and other software, but they are also good at running the math that drives a neural network.


About six years ago, as tech giants like Google, Facebook and Microsoft doubled down on artificial intelligence, they started buying enormous numbers of G.P.U.s from the Silicon Valley chip maker Nvidia. In the year leading up to the summer of 2016, Nvidia sold $143 million in G.P.U.s. That was more than double the year before.

But the companies wanted even more processing power. Google built a chip specifically for neural networks — the tensor processing unit, or T.P.U. — and several other chip makers chased the same goal.
artificial_intelligence  Cerebras  conventional_wisdom  Intel  Qualcomm  semiconductors  start_ups 
august 2019 by jerryking
Why You Should Try to Be a Little More Scarce
May 18, 2019 | The New York Times | By Cindy Lamothe.

* Conventional wisdom tells us we should eagerly embrace every opportunity that comes our way, but playing a little hard to get has its advantages.
* Robert Cialdini, a leading expert on influence and the author of “Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade.”
* John Lees, a Britain-based career strategist and the author of “How to Get a Job You Love.”
* Liz Ryan, founder of Human Workplace and the author of “Reinvention Roadmap: Break the Rules to Get the Job You Want and Career You Deserve.”
* Shirli Kopelman, author of “Negotiating Genuinely: Being Yourself in Business,”

Studies show that opportunities are seen to be more valuable as they become less available.....the scarcity principle says that people are more attracted to those options or opportunities that are rare, unique or dwindling in availability,”. The underlying principle is “reactance”: Essentially, when we think something is limited to us, we tend to want it’s possible to harness this concept and increase our appeal in things like negotiations and career advancement.....if you find yourself becoming overzealous over every little opportunity that comes your way, here are a few ways to keep things in balance:

(1) Be less eager - Appearing readily available can work against you....This comes down to economics — if you’re in low supply and high demand, you’re worth more. Making something harder to get, “tends to increase at least the perception of the value, if not its actual value.”....tell people that you're “..selective with who you work with, but you would consider working with or for them.”... “Well, I do have a couple of other projects that I’m working on. However, I could prioritize this for you if you want.”

(2) Don’t jump the gun - It’s easy to become excited when an unexpected opportunity presents itself, Ms. Ryan said, but remember that your power in any negotiation is related to your ability to walk away. Once you have interest, channel that into due diligence, Mr. Lees said. “Research the organization as if you were going to invest half your life savings in it,” he said. It’s also important to continually check in with your gut, Ms. Ryan added, and remember: Don’t accept an offer before fully considering the terms.

(3) Know your market value - continually assessing our market worth, “so that if an unexpected opportunity comes up, you don’t have to rush and do a slack job on this crucial factor.”...Keep an updated spreadsheet on hand with a list of your skills and achievements so you can quickly review it when you have an offer. You also have to know how much to charge for your services beforehand. The idea is to plan ahead so you’re not scrambling in the moment.

(4) Adopt an abundance mind-set - Recognizing that there are unlimited possibilities can give you the security and confidence you need to create successful outcomes. ....reframe how we use scarcity and abundance in our own head before we can apply it outwardly. When you worry about all the things you’re going to lose out on if you don’t take a particular opportunity, you’re using the scarcity mind-set on yourself rather than as a persuasion strategy, he said. “You’re at a real disadvantage mentally.”

(5) Trust the process - appearing less available isn’t about limiting our enthusiasm or being unnecessarily hard on ourselves. It’s about trusting in our own self-worth so we can be proactive, experts say. This means mindfully aligning our excitement into strategy....“Emphasize the uniqueness of your resources and your collaborative approach"
abundance  bank_shots  books  conventional_wisdom  job_search  Managing_Your_Career  mindsets  opportunities  overeagerness  overzealous  preparation  scarcity  selectivity  self-worth  think_differently  unexpected  walking_away 
may 2019 by jerryking
The Economy Needs Amazons, but It Mostly Has GEs
the country as a whole badly needs some rules-defying risk-taking. For business, that means a bit more Amazon in the boardroom and a bit less GE....The purchase of Whole Foods by Amazon introduced a level of volatility and turmoil (at least singularly to the retail sector) which had been absent from the market for a long time....The rest of the market remained placid. And months of historically low volatility has begun to look like dangerous complacency....... another, potentially more troubling explanation: stagnation. Muted markets may be an inevitable product of steady, sluggish growth, low and predictable interest rates, declining business startups and failures, and decreased competition. In other words, the problem is, there aren’t enough Amazons disrupting the stock market and the economy.....Jeffrey Bezos founded Amazon in 1994, he has prioritized expansion and innovation ahead of profit. In its early years, free cash flow—cash from operations minus CAPEX—hovered around zero. Mr. Bezos approaches new products like a VC. Many will flop (like the Fire smartphone), but some will be home runs (e.g. AWS). Amazon launched Prime, which offers free delivery in exchange for an annual fee, in 2005. John Blackledge, notes Amazon has repeatedly innovated in ways that make Prime even more valuable to subscribers.......Amazon is now profitable, yet cash retention remains secondary to building great products and delighting and retaining customers.

....If Amazon is one extreme in how companies invest, General ElectricCo. is the other. It has long been fastidious about capital and cash deployment......CEO Jack Welch perfected this approach in the 1990s.. it continued under Jeffrey Immelt. Last week, Mr. Immelt said he would retire, after 16 years struggling to restore growth. In part, that reflected how financial engineering had inflated profits under Mr. Welch. Yet Mr. Immelt ’s investment decisions too often chased the conventional wisdom on Wall Street and in Washington. ...........growth is hard for any company that dominates its markets as much as GE does. GE’s size also attracts debilitating political scrutiny. ....In response to new regulations and pressure from Wall Street, Mr. Immelt largely dismantled the business...........Investors still want GE to return cash to shareholders, and it has obliged,.....while good for shareholders in the short run, this is no recipe for growth in the long run. GE’s cash flow is shrinking despite the company’s focus on preserving it, while Amazon’s is growing despite that company’s readiness to spend it.......North American boardrooms desparately needs some rules-defying risk-taking. For business, that means a bit more Amazon in the boardroom and a bit less GE

[ See John Authers article which references Vix]

The "Minsky Moment" occurs when investors realize that they have paid far too much for the credits that have bought, no buyers can be found, and the system collapses. Aka Wile E. Coyote running-off-a-cliff....The greatest dangers to us are not from things we perceive to be high-risk, because we generally treat them carefully. Trouble arises from that which we perceive to be low-risk.
digital_economy  Amazon  GE  Amazon_Prime  risk-taking  volatility  Greg_Ip  stagnation  cash_flows  long-term  growth  start_ups  complacency  instability  conventional_wisdom  Jeffrey_Immelt  Jack_Welch  conglomerates  delighting_customers  capital_allocation  Jeff_Bezos  financial_engineering  rule_breaking 
june 2017 by jerryking
From Michael Lewis, a Portrait of the Men Who Shaped ‘Moneyball’ - The New York Times
Lewis decided to explore how it started.

The inquiry led him to the work of two Israeli psychologists, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, whose discoveries challenged long-held beliefs about human nature and the way the mind works.

Mr. Lewis chronicles their unusual partnership in his new book, “The Undoing Project,” a story about two unconventional thinkers who saw the world differently from everyone around them. Their peculiar area of research — how humans make decisions, often irrationally — has had profound implications for an array of fields, like professional sports, the military, medicine, politics, finance and public health.....Tversky and Kahneman's research demonstrating how people behave in fundamentally irrational ways when making decisions, relying on their gut rather than available data, gave rise to the field of behavioral economics. That discipline attracted Paul DePodesta, a Harvard student, who later went into sports management and helped upend professional baseball when he went to work for Mr. Beane.....Unlike many nonfiction writers, Mr. Lewis declines to take advances, which he calls “corrupting,” even though he could easily earn seven figures. Instead, he splits the profits from the books, as well as the advertising and production costs, with Norton. The setup spurs him to work harder and to make more money if the books are successful, he says.

“You should have the risk and you should enjoy the reward,” he said. “It’s not healthy for an author not to have the risk.”
Amos_Tversky  Michael_Lewis  Moneyball  books  book_reviews  unconventional_thinking  biases  cognitive_skills  unknowns  information_gaps  humility  pretense_of_knowledge  overconfidence  conventional_wisdom  overestimation  metacognition  behavioural_economics  irrationality  decision_making  nonfiction  writers  self-awareness  self-analysis  self-reflective  proclivities  Daniel_Kahneman  psychologists  delusions  self-delusions  skin_in_the_game  gut_feelings  risk-taking  partnerships 
december 2016 by jerryking
The Art of Being Unreasonable: Lessons in Unconventional Thinking By Eli Broad
We started by looking at some of the industry's most fundamental operating principles, what most people would call the basics. They represent the strongest, stickiest — and most unexamined kind of c...
conventional_wisdom  critical_thinking  quotes  moguls  unexamined  patronage  benefactors  assumptions  innovation  opportunities  Eli_Broad  thinking  unconventional_thinking  assessments_&_evaluations  unreasonableness 
february 2015 by jerryking
Where to Look for Insight
Mohanbir Sawhney Sanjay Khosla
Innovation isn’t a department. It’s a mindset that should permeate your entire enterprise.

No matter the venue, the feedstock for innovation is insight—an imaginative understanding of an internal or external opportunity that can be tapped to improve efficiency, generate revenue, or boost engagement. Insights can be about stakeholder needs, market dynamics, or even how your company works.

Here are Seven Insight Channels

Examine deviations from the norm
Do you see unexpectedly high or low revenue or share in a market or segment? Surprise performance from a business process or a company unit?


Find macro trend intersections

What key economic, behavioral, technological, or demographic trends do you see? How are they combining to create opportunities?


Pinpoint deficiencies in the system

Where are customer pain points for your products, services, or solutions? Which organizational processes or practices annoy you and your colleagues?


Question conventional beliefs
Are there assumptions or beliefs in your industry that go unexamined? Toxic behaviors or procedures at your company that go unchallenged?


Exploit deviance
What can you learn from the behaviors and needs of your leading-edge or laggard customers, employees, or suppliers?


Learn from immersion elsewhere
How are your stakeholders’ needs influenced by their sociocultural context?


Borrow from other industries or organizations
What successful innovations do you see applied in other disciplines? Can you adapt them for your own?
trend_spotting  creating_opportunities  customer_insights  HBR  analogies  anomalies  trends  pain_points  assumptions  innovation  insights  conventional_wisdom  travel  laggards  copycats  dilemmas  extremes  orthodoxy  immersive  deviance  learning_journeys  leading-edge  unexpected  mindsets  frictions  opportunities  opportunistic  consumer_behavior  feedstock  toxic_behaviors 
november 2014 by jerryking
Four Ways to Innovate Through Analogies - WSJ - WSJ
Nov. 7, 2014 | WSJ |

Here are four rules for innovating through analogy.

(1) Question conventional analogies. Always kick the tires on the analogies you encounter or consider. Some analogies ring true at first but fall apart on closer examination.
(2) Explore multiple analogies. No matter how seductive an analogy may be, be sure to examine several others before deciding which one might be most useful. Usually, more than one analogy can shed light on a given situation.
(3) Look to diverse sources. The art of analogy flows from creative re-categorization and the information that we extract from surprising sources
(4) Simplify. Similarly, Steve Jobs recognized that the digital “desktop,” first developed but unappreciated at Xerox PARC, was an analogy with the potential to make computers accessible to millions of people—an insight he put to work when he launched the first Mac.
storytelling  pattern_recognition  innovation  analogies  simplicity  Charles_Darwin  theory  theory_of_evolution  conventional_wisdom  Steve_Jobs  under_appreciated  Xerox 
november 2014 by jerryking
Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt teach us how to think like a freak - The Globe and Mail
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, May. 23 2014

In a collection of stories that read like modern parables, Mr. Dubner and Mr. Levitt try to teach their approach to problem-solving to the rest of us, with tactics that range from “thinking like a child” to devising incentives for miscreants to reveal themselves....they want to deputize the entire world to think differently about the world's problems differently... there’s a growing body of research that suggests the human mind does a lot of things incredibly well between the ages of late childhood and late adolescence.

I asked these kids, what if I told you that your brain right now, at 13, is almost at its peak power, and that you have another 12 or 15 years where it’s just gonna be kicking ass, and then it’s going to start to diminish. Once you start to think about that, what would you use your brain to do now, knowing that it’s a perishable resource?

That for me was a takeaway I got from the book. I really want to encourage my kids to understand that their brains are not the premature versions of the adult brains. Their brains are the optimal brain. When we say, “think like a child,” if you’re over 25 or 30, that’s the best we can do.
economists  book_reviews  incentives  freakonomics  economics  takeaways  books  thinking  howto  children  cognitive_skills  problem_solving  conventional_wisdom  metacognition  think_differently 
may 2014 by jerryking
Data Is the World
Aug 1, 2005 | | Michael S. Hopkins.

Use your data. "Companies aren't taking advantage of the data they generate, Levitt says. "Often, data generated for one purpose is useful for another. Freakonomics describes the case of an entrepreneur selling bagels in corporate offices who kept meticulous records to track profits and loss—data that eventually yielded insights about white-collar crime and the effects of office size on honesty.
Ask different questions. The abortion-crime link revealed itself when Levitt thought to stop asking what made crime fall and try asking why it had risen so much in the first place. That led him to justice system practices in the 1960s, which led him to a statistical understanding of which individuals were likeliest to commit crimes, and ultimately to the question of why a large segment of that population seemed to have vanished.
Don't mistake correlation for causality. Innovative policing and a drop in crime happened simultaneously, but data proved the one didn't cause the other. (Be mindful of the feudal king who, having learned disease was greatest in regions with the most doctors, figured that reducing doctors would reduce disease.)
Question conventional wisdom. An idea that is both easy to understand and a source of comfort (such as the credit quickly given to innovative policing for cutting crime) should be especially suspect.
Respect the complexity of incentives. "You can't imagine, says Levitt, "all the ways humans will connive to beat a system.
Employ data against cheating. Just as companies don't sufficiently capitalize on the data they have access to, they aren't exploiting what Levitt calls "opportunities to think about fraud or theft in their businesses.
'60s  bank_shots  causality  cheating  conventional_wisdom  correlations  data  data_driven  exhaust_data  Freakonomics  gaming_the_system  incentives  insights  justice_system  massive_data_sets  metadata  oversimplification  questions  skepticism  social_data  Steven_Levitt  theft  think_differently  white-collar_crime 
january 2013 by jerryking
The 6 Habits of True Strategic Thinkers
Mar 20, 2012 | | | Paul J. H. Schoemaker.
Adaptive strategic leaders--the kind who thrive in today’s uncertain environment--do six things well:

1. Anticipate. Hone your “peripheral vision.” Reduce vulnerabilities to rivals who detect and act on ambiguous signals. ... Build wide external networks to help you scan the horizon better
2. Think Critically. Critical thinkers question everything. To master this skill, you must force yourself to reframe problems to get to the bottom of things, in terms of root causes. Challenge current beliefs and mindsets, including your own Uncover hypocrisy, manipulation, and bias in organizational decisions.
3. Interpret. Ambiguity is unsettling. Faced with it, you are tempted to reach for a fast (potentially wrongheaded) solution. A good strategic leader holds steady, synthesizing information from many sources before developing a viewpoint. To get good at this, you have to:Seek patterns in multiple sources of data; Question prevailing assumptions and test multiple hypotheses simultaneously.
4. Decide. Many leaders fall prey to “analysis paralysis.” Develop processes and enforce them, so that you arrive at a “good enough” position. To do that well, you have to: Carefully frame the decision to get to the crux of the matter, Balance speed, rigor, quality, and agility. Leave perfection to higher powers. Take a stand even with incomplete information and amid diverse views
5. Align. Consensus is rare. Foster open dialogue, build trust, and engage key stakeholders, especially when views diverge. To pull that off, you need to: Understand what drives other people's agendas, including what remains hidden. Bring tough issues to the surface, even when it's uncomfortable
Assess risk tolerance and follow through to build the necessary support
6. Learn.

As your company grows, honest feedback is harder and harder to come by. You have to do what you can to keep it coming.
Encourage and exemplify honest, rigorous debriefs to extract lessons
Shift course quickly if you realize you're off track
Celebrate both successes and (well-intentioned) failures that provide insight
Do you have what it takes?
tips  leadership  habits  strategic_thinking  anticipating  critical_thinking  networks  biases  conventional_wisdom  decision_making  empathy  feedback  thinking  failure  lessons_learned  leaders  interpretation  ambiguities  root_cause  insights  paralyze  peripheral_vision  analysis_paralysis  reframing  course_correction  vulnerabilities  good_enough  debriefs  post-mortems  problem_framing  discomforts  wide-framing  outward_looking  assumptions  game_changers 
march 2012 by jerryking
How to Stay Stuck in the Wrong Career
December 2002 | HBR | by Herminia Ibarra.

But change actually happens the other way around. Doing comes first, knowing second, because changing careers means redefining our working identity--our sense of self in our professional roles, what we convey about ourselves to others and, ultimately, how we live our working lives. Who we are and what we do are tightly connected, the result of years of action. And to change that connection, we must first resort to action--exactly what the conventional wisdom cautions us against....First, determine with as much clarity and certainty as possible what you really want to do. Next, use that knowledge to identify jobs or fields in which your passions can be coupled with your skills and experience. Seek advice from the people who know you best and from professionals in tune with the market. Then simply implement the resulting action steps. Change is seen as a one-shot deal: The plan-and-implement approach cautions us against making a move before we know exactly where we are going....It all sounds reasonable, and it is a reassuring way to proceed. Yet my research suggests that proceeding this way will lead to the most disastrous of results, which is to say no result. So if your deepest desire is to remain indefinitely in a career that grates on your nerves or stifles your self-expression, simply adhere to that conventional wisdom, presented below as a foolproof, three-point plan....what consumed 90% of the year he spent looking for a new career, is what the conventional models leave out-a lot of trial and error....that it is possible to discover one's "true self," when the reality is that none of us has such an essence. (See the sidebar "Our Many Possible Selves "for a discussion of why one's true self is so elusive.) Intense introspection also poses the danger that a potential career changer will get stuck in the realm of daydreams....We learn who we have become-in practice, not in theory-by testing fantasy and reality, not by "looking inside." Knowing oneself is crucial, but it is usually the outcome of-and not a first input to-the reinvention process....To launch ourselves anew, we need to get out of our heads. We need to act....But when it comes to reinventing ourselves, the people who know us best are the ones most likely to hinder rather than help us....Mentors and close coworkers, though well meaning, can also unwittingly hold us back...So if self-assessment, the advice of close ones, and the counsel of change professionals won't do it, then where can we find support for our reinvention?....Reaching outside our normal circles to new people, networks, and professional communities is the best way to both break frame and get psychological sustenance.
Managing_Your_Career  career_paths  career  HBR  reinvention  Second_Acts  Herminia_Ibarra  analysis_paralysis  trial_&_error  action-oriented  self-assessment  self-awareness  pragmatism  counterintuitive  conventional_wisdom  change 
august 2011 by jerryking
"The Best Advice I Ever Got" - March 21, 2005
March 21, 2005 | Fortune Magazine | By INTERVIEWERS Julia Boorstin.

Brian Grazer
"My whole career has been built on one piece of advice that came from two people: [MCA founder] Jules Stein and [former MCA chairman] Lew Wasserman. In 1975 I was a law clerk at Warner Bros. I'd spent about a year trying to get a meeting with these two men. Finally they let me in to see them. They both said, separately, 'In order for you to be in the entertainment business, you have to have leverage. Since you have none--no money, no pedigree, no valuable relationships--you must have creative leverage. That exists only in your mind. So you need to write--put what's in your mind on paper. Then you'll own a piece of paper. That's leverage.'

"With that advice, I wrote the story that became Splash, which was a fantasy that I had about meeting a mermaid. For years, I sent registered letters to myself--movie concepts and other ideas--so that I had my ideas officially on paper. I have about 1,000 letters in a vault. To this day, I feel that my real power is only that--ideas and the confidence to write them down."
advice  career  inspiration  entrepreneur  Managing_Your_Career  Clayton_Christensen  humility  MBAs  Siemens  Salesforce  Mickey_Drexler  JetBlue  Peter_Drucker  Jim_Collins  Rick_Warren  leverage  Xerox  Andy_Grove  conventional_wisdom  Richard_Parsons  negotiations  Jack_Welch  Vivek_Paul  thinking  Starbucks  Warren_Bennis  Richard_Branson  Warren_Buffett  Brian_Grazer  creating_valuable_content  Lew_Wasserman 
december 2010 by jerryking
Dangers of Clinging to Solutions of the Past -
MARCH 2, 2009, 4:09 A.M. ET by PHRED DVORAK

Companies "overestimate the value of experience," . "Experience becomes a
liability in times of change." Managers don't always learn the right
lessons from their experiences, particularly when they involve complex
projects. It's hard to judge cause and effect properly when there's a
long time lag between an action -- hiring a worker, for instance -- and a
result such as more output. Other conditions vary, further muddying the
picture. Managers typically don't change course easily, sticking with
old habits and goals, even when situations change.
change  managers  adaptability  overestimation  lessons_learned  conventional_wisdom  experience 
march 2009 by jerryking
Six Deadly Orthodoxies of Recessions | Articles | Homepage
Jan./Feb. 2009, article in CEO Magazine by Pierre Loewe and
Dave Jones
* Reduce costs selectively, not indiscriminately, monitor carefully the
impact of cost cuts on staff.
* Don't stop investing - seek undervalued assets and opportunities to
upend rivals who only think of retrenching.
* De-risk and lower the costs of innovation efforts by reaching outside
company and by conducting well-designed experiments.
*If your company has developed a new product or business that
significantly enhances the customer value proposition, a recession is
the time to introduce it and get a lasting advantage over more timid
*A recession is the time to bypass incremental cost reduction efforts
and to focus employees' energy on innovation aimed at dramatic cost
*Even if you have to curtail innovation efforts to conserve cash,
maintain a sufficient level of activity so you can ramp-up efforts
quickly, retain your key innovators, and tap the pulse of the changing
dynamics of the mkt.
innovation  rethinking  lessons_learned  recessions  Michael_McDerment  counterintuitive  CEOs  Daniel_Pink  Freshbooks  economic_downturn  orthodoxy  conventional_wisdom  breakthroughs  new_products  de-risking  cost-cutting  new_categories  undervalued  incrementalism  marginal_improvements  experimentation  moonshots 
february 2009 by jerryking

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