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Risk Management Reports
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December 1997 Volume 24, No. 12. The trick in risk management,
perhaps, is in recognizing that normal is not a (default) state of nature but a
state of transition, and trend is not destiny. . . ." (Sept. 1, 1997). Peter Bernstein
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
John Adams, author of Risk University College London Press, London, 1995
Peter_Bernstein  risk-management  risks  book_reviews  base_rates  ephemerality  transient  impermanence  trends  transitions  normality  quotes 
april 2018 by jerryking
The Pop-Up Employer: Build a Team, Do the Job, Say Goodbye -
JULY 12, 2017 | The New York Times | By NOAM SCHEIBER.

Two Stanford biz profs, Melissa Valentine and Michael Bernstein, have introduced the idea of “flash organizations” — ephemeral setups to execute a single, complex project in ways traditionally associated with corporations, nonprofit groups or governments.....information technology has made the flash organization a suddenly viable form across a number of industries.....intermediaries are already springing up across industries like software and pharmaceuticals to assemble such organizations. They rely heavily on data and algorithms to determine which workers are best suited to one another, and also on decidedly lower-tech innovations, like middle management......Temporary organizations capable of taking on complicated projects have existed for decades, e.g. Hollywood, where producers assemble teams of directors, writers, actors, costume and set designers and a variety of other craftsmen and technicians to execute projects with budgets in the tens if not hundreds of millions.....Jody Miller, a former media executive and venture capitalist, a co-founder of the Business Talent Group, sets up temporary teams of freelancers for corporations. “We’re the producers,” Ms. Miller said. “We understand how to evaluate talent, pick the team.”.....
Three lessons stand out across the flash-type models. First is that the platforms tend to be highly dependent on data and computing power....Second is the importance of well-established roles. ...Third, there is perhaps the least likely of innovations: middle management. The typical freelancer performs worker-bee tasks. Flash-like organizations tend to combine both workers and managers...........Flash organizations have obvious limits....they tend to work best for projects with well-defined life spans, not continuing engagements....“The bottleneck now is project managers,” ... “It’s a really tough position to fill.”.....even while fostering flexibility, the model could easily compound insecurity. Temporary firms are not likely to provide health or retirement benefits. ..... the anxiety is legitimate, but these platforms could eventually dampen insecurity by playing a role that companies have historically played: providing benefits, topping off earnings if workers’ freelance income is too low or too spotty, even allowing workers to organize.
pop-ups  freelancing  on-demand  ephemerality  producers  execution  Hollywood  project_management  teams  data  algo  lessons_learned  Business_Talent_Group  Gigster  Artella  Foundry  Slack  pharmaceutical_industry  Outsourcing  contractors  job_insecurity  middle_management  gig_economy  ad_hoc  dissolutions  short-term  short-lived 
july 2017 by jerryking
Marketing in the Moments, to Reach Customers Online - The New York Times
JAN. 17, 2016 | NYT | By ROBERT D. HOF .

MOMENTS are having a moment in advertising. Or at least a micro moment.....It is not just a matter of reaching people at a particular time of day, a capability advertisers have employed for decades. Randy Wootton, chief executive of the ad technology firm Rocket Fuel, which recently announced a “marketing in the moment” approach, refers to ancient Greek concepts of time: chronos, or sequential time, and kairos, a moment of opportunity independent of linear time. The latter, of course, is the one his company claims to employ for marketers.

Another key, said Brian Solis, a principal analyst at Altimeter Group, a market research firm, is that the ads need to be more useful than they are attention-getting. According to a Google survey, 51 percent of smartphone owners have bought from a different company than they intended on the basis of information found online.....However, to build brands, an effort that accounts for the majority of ad spending, companies need more than a moment. And few marketers currently have all the skills needed for moments-based marketing, such as ethnographic studies of their customers and the ability to match customer data to the right context,
intentionality  immediacy  GPS  location_based_services  Greek  LBMA  advertising  instant_gratification  purchase_decisions  brands  branding  marketing  ephemerality  impulse_purchasing  contextual  Ram_Charan  P&G  real-time  Flybits  moments  linearity  seminal_moments  chronological  kairos 
february 2016 by jerryking
Snapchat and Periscope: A Grown-Up’s Guide - WSJ
By KEVIN SINTUMUANG
Updated May 15, 2015

Remember that by default, everything you post disappears. Periscope and Meerkat broadcasts are intended to be live events; each element of a Snapchat Story expires after 24 hours. Although you can set the apps to save your videos (and, on Periscope, have them viewable for 24 hours), that’s not the point...there’s someone giving you a tour of the Louvre or a celebrity engaging with fans in an authentic way. For every incomprehensible Dadaist Snapchat Story that only a teenager could interpret, there is another that makes an ordinary day seem significant. And using Snapchat as a communication tool turns ordinarily mundane messages into something more charming, direct and personal.
social_media  Snapchat  Periscope  ephemerality  howto  mobile_applications  Meerkat  livestreaming  web_video 
may 2015 by jerryking
Why Apps for Messaging Are Trending - NYTimes.com
By MIKE ISAAC and MICHAEL J. de la MERCEDJAN. 25, 2015

a glimpse into how some personal messaging apps like Instagram, WeChat and Snapchat — already used by millions of people sharing text or images among friends — will be used in the future.

Some publishers, game makers and e-commerce companies are using the apps as a new distribution and moneymaking platform. Developers have been expanding the uses of the apps, making new functions possible. And investors, seeing huge potential, have driven the apps to ever-higher valuations.
...The initial appeal of the apps is simple. They are faster to use than email, and they generally allow you to send text, links, video and photos to friends more cheaply than traditional texting services offered by wireless carriers like Verizon or AT&T.
chat  chatbots  conversational_commerce  mobile_applications  messaging  Instagram  WeChat  SnapChat  ephemerality 
january 2015 by jerryking
Do We Want an Erasable Internet? - WSJ.com
Dec. 22, 2013|| WSJ | By Farhad Manjoo.

Snapchat will have been one of the most fascinating services to hit the Internet in years. To me, the app's exploding popularity suggests that society is yearning for a new way to think about data. Snapchat is one of the first mainstream services to show us that our photos and texts don't need to stick around forever: that erasing all the digital effluvia generated by our phones and computers can be just as popular a concept as saving it.

If the Snapchat model takes off—if other sites and services began to promote the idea of erasability as a competitive feature—the Internet would look very different from the Internet of today. It would be a more private network, one without the constant worry of every ill-considered picture or thought being held up for ridicule by the whole world, forever....Snapchat provides a sense of liberation from the constraints of a permanent record. Of course, we might not have to pick. Big Snapchat-like growth could mean that we'll have a Forever Internet and an Erasable Internet living side by side. Some users mainly will choose apps and services that save our data by default, while others will choose instant deletion. A lot will choose both, depending.
Snapchat  mobile_applications  transient  impermanence  ephemerality  Farhad_Manjoo  invisibility 
december 2013 by jerryking
Snap Out of It: Kids Aren't Reliable Tech Predictors - WSJ.com
Nov. 17, 2013 | WSJ | By Farhad Manjoo.

First, Snapchat's main selling point is ephemerality. Users who send a photo and caption using the app can select how long the image is viewable. Second, and relatedly, Snapchat is used primarily by teens and people in college. This explains much of Silicon Valley's obsession with the company....tech execs, youngsters are the canaries in the gold mine.

That logic follows a widely shared cultural belief: We all tend to assume that young people are on the technological vanguard, that they somehow have got an inside scoop on what's next. If today's kids are Snapchatting instead of Facebooking, the thinking goes, tomorrow we'll all be Snapchatting, too, because tech habits, like hairstyles, flow only one way: young to old.

There is only one problem with elevating young people's tastes this way: Kids are often wrong....Incidentally, though 20-something tech founders like Mr. Zuckerberg, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates get a lot of ink, they are unusual.... "The twentysomething inexperienced founder is an outlier, not the norm," ...If you think about it for a second, the fact that young people aren't especially reliable predictors of tech trends shouldn't come as a surprise. Sure, youth is associated with cultural flexibility, a willingness to try new things that isn't necessarily present in older folk. But there are other, less salutary hallmarks of youth, including capriciousness, immaturity, and a deference to peer pressure even at the cost of common sense. This is why high school is such fertile ground for fads. And it's why, in other cultural areas, we don't put much stock in teens' choices. No one who's older than 18, for instance, believes One Direction is the future of music....Is the app just a youthful fad, just another boy band, or is it something more permanent; is it the Beatles?

To figure this out, we would need to know why kids are using it. Are they reaching for Snapchat for reasons that would resonate with older people—because, like the rest of us, they've grown wary of the public-sharing culture promoted by Facebook and Twitter? Or are they using it for less universal reasons, because they want to evade parental snooping, send risqué photos, or avoid feeling left out of a fad everyone else has adopted?

At this point no one knows, probably not even the people who make Snapchat. For now,That's reason enough to be wary of Snapchat's youthful vigor.
capriciousness  customer_risk  developmental_change  ephemerality  fads  Farhad_Manjoo  generational_change  hiring-a-product-to-do-a-specific-job  immaturity  impermanence  invisibility  motivations  peer_pressure  predictors  Silicon_Valley  Snapchat  snooping  transient  trends  young_people  youth 
november 2013 by jerryking
Messaging Service Snapchat Spurned $3 Billion Facebook Bid - WSJ.com
By
Evelyn M. Rusli and
Douglas MacMillan
connect
Updated Nov. 13, 2013

Mr. Spiegel's company has no sales and no business model—but it does have a smartphone app that delivers hundreds of millions of messages, mostly from teenagers and young adults, that disappear in 10 seconds or less.
Snapchat  Facebook  M&A  mergers_&_acquisitions  ephemerality 
november 2013 by jerryking
This email will self-destruct
August 31, 2006
By Andrew Lavallee, The Wall Street Journal
e-mail  encryption  privacy  Echoworx  Kablooey  self-destructive  ephemerality 
october 2011 by jerryking

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