recentpopularlog in

jerryking : expectations   19

Get Ready for Technological Upheaval by Expecting the Unimagined
SEPT. 2, 2017 | The New York Times | By SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN.

New technologies are rattling the economy on all fronts. While the predictions are specific and dire, bigger changes are surely coming. Clearly, we need to adjust for the turbulence ahead.

But we may be preparing in the wrong way.

Rather than planning for the specific changes we imagine, it is better to prepare for the unimagined — for change itself.

Preparing for the unknown is not as hard as it may seem, though it implies fundamental shifts in our policies on education, employment and social insurance.

* Education. Were we to plan for specific changes, we would start revamping curriculums to include skills we thought would be rewarded in the future. E.g., computer programming might become even more of a staple in high schools than it already is. Maybe that will prove to be wise and we will have a more productive work force. But perhaps technology evolves quickly enough that in a few decades we talk to, rather than program, computers. In that case, millions of people would have invested in a skill as outdated as precise penmanship. Instead, rather than changing what we teach, we could change WHEN we teach...... our current practice of learning early [and hopefully] benefitting for a lifetime — makes sense only in a world where the useful skills stay constant. Human capital, like technology, needs refreshing, we have to restructure our institutions so people acquire education later in life. Not merely need programs for niche populations or circumstances, expensive and short executive-education programs or brief excursions like TED talks. Instead we need the kind of in-depth education and training people receive routinely at age 13.
* Social Insurance. Economic upheaval at the macro level means turmoil and instability at the personal level. A lifetime of work will be a lifetime of change, moving between firms, jobs, careers and cities. Each move has financial and personal costs: It might involve going without a paycheck, looking for new housing, finding a new school district or adjusting to a new vocation. We cannot expect to create a vibrant and flexible overall economy unless we make these shifts as painless as possible. We need a fresh round of policy innovation focused on creating a safety net that gives workers the peace of mind — and the money — to move deftly when circumstances change.....current policies do nothing to protect the most vulnerable from the costs of all this destruction. We resist letting factories close because we worry about what will become of the people who work there. But if we had a social insurance system that allowed workers to move fluidly between jobs, we could comfortably allow firms to follow their natural life and death cycle.

.....other ways of preparing for upheaval? We should broaden the current conversation — centered on drones, the end of work or the prospect of super-intelligent algorithms governing the world — to include innovative proposals for handling the unexpected......One problem is that social policy may seem boring compared with the wonderfully evocative story arcs telling us where current technologies might be heading......The safest prediction is that reality will outstrip our imaginations. So let us craft our policies not just for what we expect but for what will surely surprise us.
tumult  unimaginable  expectations  turbulence  Joseph_Schumpeter  innovation_policies  human_capital  education  safety_nets  job_search  creative_destruction  lifelong  life_long_learning  surprises  economists  improbables  personal_economy  preparation  unexpected  readiness 
september 2017 by jerryking
Leah McLaren: Considering marriage? Mind the Expectations Gap - The Globe and Mail
LEAH MCLAREN
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, May 26, 2016

the Expectations Gap. This is the idea that the sort of women who tend to marry are often the sort of women who tend to have – shall we say – untenable expectations of the benefits their union is going to provide. I’m not just talking about deluded contestants on The Bachelor who think some guy putting a big sparkly ring on it is going to lead to a life of eternal, soft-focus bliss. I’m talking about myself.....[marrying anyone man with whom you share few-to-zero important life goals will not make you feel safe and centred].....offer the following piece of advice to any young person thinking of getting married: Be realistic in your expectations and understand that marriage, for most of us, is not the panacea our culture promises it to be. Respect yourself. Respect your partner. And if you really want to be safe, just don’t get married at all.
marriage  relationships  Leah_McLaren  expectations  self-respect 
july 2017 by jerryking
Among the iPhone’s Biggest Transformations: Apple Itself - WSJ
By Tripp Mickle
June 20, 2017

The iPhone was so revolutionary it raised expectations that the company would introduce radical new products regularly, said Patrick Moorhead, a technology analyst with Moor Insights & Strategy. “That’s what I call the leadership burden,” Mr. Moorhead said.

That has made innovation more difficult in some ways, former employees said. Apple developed products that were linked to the iPhone, such as the Apple Watch and AirPod headphones, but was late to pursue hot internet-connected home devices like Nest’s thermostat and an intelligent speaker like Amazon’s Echo.

“There was a real opportunity missed there,” said Mr. Cannistraro. Still, he said, Apple recognizes and supports innovative ideas internally and executes better than competitors. “The right ideas tend to be the ones that get through.”
iPhone  Apple  transformational  Amazon  breakthroughs  Echo  expectations  innovation  Nest  new_products  smart_speakers 
june 2017 by jerryking
Why You Will Marry the Wrong Person
MAY 28, 2016 | The New York Times | By ALAIN de BOTTON.

We all fear marrying the wrong person...Partly, it’s because we have many latent problems that emerge when we try to get close to others (we seem normal only to those who don’t know us very well. In a wiser, more self-aware society, a standard question on any early dinner date would be: “And how are you crazy?”)....The problem is that before marriage, we rarely delve into our complexities. ...Our partners are no more self-aware although we make a stab at trying to understand them....we seek a (false) sense that we’ve done our homework. We haven’t.....What matters in the marriage of feeling--romantic love--is that two people are drawn to each other by an overwhelming instinct and know in their hearts that it is right.....we believe ourselves to be seeking happiness in marriage, it isn’t that simple. What we really seek is familiarity — which may well complicate any plans we might have had for happiness. ...as grown-ups find ourselves rejecting certain candidates for marriage not because they are wrong but because they are too right — too balanced, mature, understanding and reliable — given that in our hearts, such rightness feels foreign. We marry the wrong people because we don’t associate being loved with feeling happy....We make mistakes, too, because we are so lonely. No one can be in an optimal frame of mind to choose a partner when remaining single feels unbearable.....Finally, we marry to make a nice feeling permanent. We imagine that marriage will help us to bottle the joy we felt when the thought of proposing first came to us....We marry to make joyful sensations permanent but fail to see that there is no solid connection between these feelings and the institution of marriage....The good news is that it doesn’t matter if we find we have married the wrong person. We mustn’t abandon him or her, only the founding "romantic love" idea upon which the Western understanding of marriage has been based the last 250 years: that a perfect being exists who can meet all our needs and satisfy our every yearning....swap the Romantic Love view for a tragic (and at points comedic) awareness that every human will frustrate, anger, annoy, madden and disappoint us — and we will (without any malice) do the same to them. There can be no end to our sense of emptiness and incompleteness. But none of this is unusual or grounds for divorce. Choosing whom to commit ourselves to is merely a case of identifying which particular variety of suffering we're willing to sign up for.

This philosophy of pessimism--thinking tragically--offers a solution to a lot of distress and agitation around marriage. It might sound odd, but pessimism relieves the excessive imaginative pressure that our romantic culture places upon marriage. The failure of one particular partner to save us from our grief and melancholy is not an argument against that person and no sign that a union deserves to fail or be upgraded.

The person who is best suited to us is not the person who shares our every taste (he or she doesn’t exist), but the person who can negotiate differences in taste intelligently — the person who is good at disagreement. Rather than some notional idea of perfect complementarity, it is the capacity to tolerate differences with generosity that is the true marker of the “not overly wrong” person.

Romantic Love has been unhelpful to us; it is a harsh philosophy. It has made a lot of what we go through in marriage seem exceptional and appalling. We end up lonely and convinced that our union, with its imperfections, is not “normal.” We should learn to accommodate ourselves to “wrongness,” striving always to adopt a more forgiving, humorous and kindly perspective on its multiple examples in ourselves and in our partners.
Communicating_&_Connecting  conflict_resolution  disagreements  disappointment  expectations  forgiveness  generosity  grace  humour  imperfections  intimacy  marriage  perspectives  pessimism  relationships  romantic_love  serving_others  thinking_tragically 
may 2016 by jerryking
Notley can weather the storm in Alberta - The Globe and Mail
BOB RAE
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, May. 07 2015

But 1990 in Ontario is not 2015 in Alberta. The economy truly cratered in Ontario: 300,000 jobs lost in just a few months; collapsing real estate prices; high interest rates and a strong dollar high; and a new free-trade agreement creating a “structural adjustment” that saw an avalanche of plant closings. It became clear that the reason for the early election was to get back in before the recession really started to bite. The downturn was the worst since 1930, and worse than anything faced in 2008-2009....Ms. Notley’s fiscal challenge is real, but does not compare to Ontario’s in those days...Her risks are pressures from within to push ahead with an ambitious agenda, and dealing with a business community and broader electorate that have their own preoccupations. But by being completely transparent about choices, and tempering unrealistic expectations and fears (as she is already doing), she can weather the storm.

Finding allies in the business community is key. There will be the diehards – and the blowhards – but beyond that, there are leaders who care about the province, who have deep roots in their communities, and who recognize that in Ms. Notley they have someone whose popularity and competence do not seem ephemeral. That process of reaching out is both public and private, and will require all her skills. But it can be done.

The harder task is dealing with expectations from the many groups and supporters whose connections to the NDP run deep....It ain’t easy.
Bob_Rae  Rachel_Notley  NDP  Ontario  '90s  expectations  Alberta  provincial_governments  elections 
may 2015 by jerryking
To Sir, with cynicism
Sep. 04 2000 | - The Globe and Mail | KATHLEEN GALLAGHER.

Where have all the idealistic young teachers gone?

We're coming perilously close to losing them. ...... I sense a different mood. Last September, when I faced my OISE class, I began the year with a simple question: "When you shared your decision to become a teacher with the people in your life who love you, what did they say?" The answers were ambivalent at best.

With teacher-shortage terror sweeping the country, teacher candidates .......very concerned, about what their lives will look like and how they will cope with low morale in the schools. They are concerned, too, by suggestions about their inability to teach to acceptable national standards......At a time of teacher-bashing and formidable moves to bring back more rigid standards, Hollywood asks us to put our hope in hero-teachers, teachers who take on the authorities, parents, and other "bad" (jaded, tired, cynical) teachers, in order to transform the lives of unhappy, unlucky children.

I worry about the superhuman qualities that these movies tell us make "good teachers." Unlike Meryl Streep, my student teachers will not have a swelling soundtrack underscoring their actions when they find themselves facing program cutbacks and the cynicism of colleagues. Everyone loses when teaching becomes an act of individual heroism. We make schools unhappier places when we tell new teachers they're on their own, rather than encouraging them to join with experienced teachers who have developed strategies, over time, to contend with the manifold contradictory expectations placed on them.....What critics of public schools seem not to know (and what good teachers have always known) is that people generally play the roles we assign them. If we worsen conditions in classrooms -- too many students, fewer support staff -- and add affronts to teachers' professionalism, we will inevitably lead teachers to develop lower expectations of themselves. The result will be the corrosion of a truly noble profession.
Colleges_&_Universities  contradictions  cynicism  demoralization  expectations  high_schools  idealism  letters_to_the_editor  OISE  public_education  public_schools  teaching  teachers  unhappiness 
february 2015 by jerryking
Capital Markets 'Impediment' to Innovation - The CFO Report - WSJ
June 20, 2011, 10:05 PM ET

By MICHAEL HICKINS

Glenn Hutchins, the co-founder and co-CEO of private equity firm Silver Lake, believes the expectations of shareholders and analysts often prevent companies from investing in new businesses or technologies. “One of the largest impediments to getting all of this done is in fact the capital markets,” he said during the opening panel discussion of The Wall Street Journal’s CFO Network Conference.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

CFOs often find it tough to make aggressive, long-term investments because explaining the reason for “making a short-term diminution for the purpose of a long-term gain [to the equity markets] is very difficult to do.”

Still, companies need to be willing to overhaul their entire businesses, if necessary, to avoid being overtaken by aggressive innovators...He lauded Apple for being willing to promote something like the iPad despite the fact that the tablet may in fact destroy the computer maker’s iMac franchise. “Business model innovation is underrated,”.....Also speaking on the panel, HBS professor Clayton Christensen blamed a corporate culture born, ironically, of business school formulas that separate strategy and finance. “The business schools decided to teach strategy and finance [separately] and this got carried over into companies. [But] a lot of things that make sense financially make no sense strategically.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
With the finance function certainly in mind, Christensen wrote that, “Managing innovation is the complexity of managing the resource allocation process.”
Silver_Lake  Clayton_Christensen  innovation  strategy  finance  CFOs  long-term  impediments  capital_markets  business_models  Glenn_Hutchins  resource_allocation  expectations  new_businesses  new_products  investors'_expectations  short-sightedness  short-term_thinking 
february 2015 by jerryking
What to expect when your parent is dying - The Globe and Mail
R.M. VAUGHAN
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Jan. 01 2015
dying  expectations  parenting 
january 2015 by jerryking
Retail reboot: How e-commerce is forcing an industry transformation - The Globe and Mail
MARINA STRAUSS - RETAILING REPORTER
The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Nov. 14 2014

The Future Shop store reinvention is part of a wider retail reboot sweeping through the industry as retailers and malls are being forced to adapt amid the relentless surge of e-commerce. Shopper traffic in stores is in decline. At the same time, e-commerce is soaring and has never been more competitive.

Meanwhile, consumers expect more for less, as retailers increasingly lure them with a variety of new ways to shop in person and online, with added bonuses such as free shipping.

It all adds up to intensifying competition ahead for an industry already at war as big new entrants in Canada battle with established players to win over fickle consumers.
retailers  e-commerce  Marina_Strauss  reboot  expectations  foot_traffic  decline  shopping_malls  new_entrants 
november 2014 by jerryking
Lunch with the FT: Peter Thiel - FT.com
December 20, 2013 4:06 pm
Lunch with the FT: Peter Thiel

By Richard Waters

Venture capital, where success depends on picking winners in the next hot tech markets and sticking with them, seems a long way from riding booms and busts as a hedge fund manager. In Thiel’s world, however, all things are connected, as he stitches ideas together into a grand unifying theory of our times.

The pieces fit together something like this. The historically anomalous bubbles of recent years – Japan’s stock market boom of the 1980s, the dotcom mania of the 1990s, the housing finance frenzy of the past decade and, now, the government bubble – all resulted from the fact that people retained outsized expectations for the future, even as reality came up short.
"Twitter may not be enough to take civilisation to the next level"

The reason for this expectation gap, Thiel argues, is that technological progress came to a halt at the end of the 1960s. As the website of Founders Fund declares: “We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.” Thiel is still making it up to Twitter for this jab: it’s a perfectly fine company, he says, and may even be worth the high valuation placed on it by Wall Street, though he adds with deadpan irony that “it may not be enough to take civilisation to the next level”
anomalies  boom-to-bust  bubbles  dotcom  expectations  Founders_Fund  libertarians  Palantir  Peter_Thiel  Richard_Waters  Silicon_Valley  Twitter  vc  venture_capital 
december 2013 by jerryking
How to Tell When A CEO Is Toast: The Early Warnings - WSJ.com
April 18, 2000 | WSJ |By CAROL HYMOWITZ

Here's a short list of telltale warning signals indicating trouble at the top.

TURNING A DEAF EAR to directors: When the CEO of a technology company that had grown considerably during his tenure suddenly faced enormous competition from a faster-growing rival and difficulty absorbing two acquisitions, he ignored a number of suggestions from his board. "We told him to try this, do that, consider this -- and he simply wouldn't listen," fumes a director who did not want to be named. The more the CEO insisted on business as usual and refused to listen to his directors' concerns, the more he lost their trust. "His failure to listen became a warning signal to us" and led to his ouster, the director says.
[Illustration of a CEO with a rocket strapped to the back of his chair]

Similarly, former Coca-Cola KO +0.36% CEO Douglas Ivesterdidn't heed his board's urgings to name a No. 2 executive. And when Coke customers in Belgium and France complained of nausea after drinking Coke products, Mr. Ivester ignored at least one director's advice to go quickly to Belgium and address the situation.

Turning a deaf ear to employees: Mr. Ivester also decided, as part of a management reorganization, that the company's highest-ranking African American, Carl Ware, one of his longtime supporters, would no longer report directly to him -- effectively demoting him. The timing couldn't have been worse since Coke is facing an employee lawsuit alleging discrimination. Mr. Ware announced plans for early retirement, and Mr. Ivester lost more credibility as Coke's leader. He stepped down as CEO at the end of last year. Mr. Ivester couldn't be reached for comment.

Former Delta Air Lines DAL -1.69% CEO Ronald Allenalso was a victim of his own insensitive management style three years ago. Mr. Allen had pulled Delta out of a financial tailspin by slashing costs. But a lot of those cuts represented employee layoffs and he did little to smooth over anxieties. Directors ultimately blamed him for a drop in morale throughout the company. With many executives who reported to Mr. Allen leaving and blue-collar workers considering unionization, Mr. Allen was asked to step down. He declined to comment about the ordeal.

PROMISING TOO MUCH: At toymaker Mattel , MAT +0.59% former CEO Jill Barad madeearnings forecasts to her board and shareholders that the company then failed to meet. "Nobody likes surprises," says Thomas Neff, chairman of the executive recruiter Spencer Stuart's U.S. operations. "The best CEOs beat their forecasts, while the worst thing you can do is be overly optimistic," he adds.

Ms. Barad at times dismissed forecasts made by other executives, insisting to directors that Mattel would do better. She resigned in February, after three years as CEO and a stream of disappointing earnings. She was unavailable for comment.

Misreading expectations: A former CEO ousted from his job with a large financial-services company a few years ago recalls how he thought he was in agreement with his board on a succession plan, only to realize they wanted him gone much sooner, mostly out of fear that he was intentionally dragging his feet. The CEO had formed a search committee for a successor, but was taking his time about recommending candidates. Then, at a board meeting, he was asked to leave the room so directors could confer alone. What he thought would be a 15-minute exchange turned into an hour-long discussion. "That's when I knew something was up," he says. "They wanted to move on succession right away."

Underestimating conflict: Bank One 's ONE +2.80% former CEO John McCoyoversaw numerous acquisitions before he merged his Columbus, Ohio, bank with First Chicago to create a $260 billion powerhouse Midwestern bank. Previous smaller mergers, he says, took about 18 mon
aloofness  blue-collar  Carol_Hymowitz  CEOs  expectations  misinterpretations  misjudgement  overoptimism  overpromising  signals  surprises  tailspins  underestimation  unionization  warning_signs 
june 2012 by jerryking
War Shifts Canada's Military Expectations - WSJ.com
April 17, 2012 | WSJ | By ALISTAIR MACDONALD.

War Shifts Canada's Military Expectations
After Key Role in Afghanistan, Government Envisions Expanded Presence Overseas, but Also Contends With Budget Cuts..."There is a sense that there has been too much soft power, not enough hard power, and Afghanistan has recalibrated that equation," said Fen Hampson, director of Carleton University and a member of a task force that advised the prime minister's office on Afghanistan's School of International Affairs.

That adjustment came at significant cost. Canada's 158 dead, out of 38,000 people who were deployed to Afghanistan at some point over a decade, represent one of the highest per capita casualty rates in the Western coalition.
Canada  Afghanistan  Stephen_Harper  veterans  expectations  soft_power  hard_power  budget_cuts 
may 2012 by jerryking
Building up everyday heroes - The Globe and Mail
Oct. 1, 2010 | Globe and Mail | Editorial....We need to
overturn our expectations of government, and in its place build a
stronger sense of self-help, community – and country...Governments,
especially governments whose budgets have been severely strained by
stimulus spending in response to the recession, cannot respond to all
the problems Canadians face....What government can do is prepare the
ground for Canadians....For example, governments need to open more
public services to charities and social enterprises...This new culture
of responsibility is not about turning every Canadian into a Kevin
Jacobs, a Jean-François Archambault or a Terry Fox. But it is to adjust
the balance between individuals and the state to encourage individual
initiative and collective enterprise.
DIY  Canada  Canadian  personal_responsibility  public_service  charities  social_enterprise  expectations  heroes  Terry_Fox  self-help  editorials  individual_initiative 
october 2010 by jerryking
The long and winding road
February 14, 2001| National Post | by Donna Laframboise.
"June Callwood, who herself has been married for 57 years, recently
declared in these pages that the perfect mate doesn't exist. Forget
about Prince Charming, she advises her grand-daughters. Instead, she
offers them a straightforward formula for romantic success. First, don't
expect your relationship to be friction-free, since it's unrealistic to
think two people will always agree on everything. Second, "discord over
trivia is not evidence of a mismatch," but proof you're in a perfectly
normal relationship in the real world. In other words, long-term
romances require more than starry-eyed pronouncements of undying
affection."
valentine  relationships  romantic_love  marriage  ksfs  long-term  expectations  in_the_real_world  marital_strife  soul_mates  imperfections 
october 2009 by jerryking
Thinking bigger
Posted by Seth Godin on September 19, 2008

The bigger point is that none of us are doing enough to challenge the assignment. Every day, I spend at least an hour of my time looking at my work and what I've chosen to do next and wonder, "is this big enough?.... What are you doing to go beyond the expectations...Thinking bigger isn't about being bigger. It's about changing the game. Do what you've always done and you'll get what you've always gotten....Yesterday, I was sitting with a friend who runs a small training company. He asked, "I need better promotion. How do I get more people to take the professional type design course I offer at my office?" My answer was a question, as it usually is. "Why is the course at your office?" and then, "Why is it a course and not accreditation, or why not turn it into a guild for job seekers, where you could train people and use part of the tuition to hire someone to organize a private job board? You could guarantee clients well-trained students (no bozos) and you could guarantee students better jobs... everyone wins."

I have no idea if my idea for the training company is a good one, but I know it's a bigger one.
Seth_Godin  inspiration  overdeliver  chutzpah  individual_initiative  expectations  upselling  thinking_big  scaling  ideas  creating_valuable_content  overambitious  new_categories  game_changers  Play_Bigger 
july 2009 by jerryking
What do you expect to be paid?
02-29-2008 G&M article by Tony Martin illustrating how to make sense of the query.
Managing_Your_Career  expectations  salaries  negotiations  compensation  self-worth 
january 2009 by jerryking

Copy this bookmark:





to read