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jerryking : gut_feelings   24

Productivity Without Privilege: How to Succeed When You’re Marginalized or Discriminated Against in the Workplace
Oct. 1, 2019 | The New York Times | By Alan Henry.

Productivity isn’t just about getting things done — it’s about spending less time on the things you have to do so you can spend more time on the things you want to do.....so much popular productivity advice is accessible only to people who have the option to use it in the first place (e.g. if your boss or co-workers believe that women shouldn’t be in the workplace, or that African-Americans are unmotivated, no “productivity hack” will force them to objectively look at your accomplishments and decisions the way they would employees they view without biases.)......the real factor determining whether you can take productivity advice at face value is "privilege".

* ‘Glamour work’ vs. ‘housework’: Who gets the opportunities matters.....

A 2018 story in Harvard Business Review pointed out that women of color in the workplace are asked to do “office housework” — the behind-the-scenes tasks that keep departments and teams humming — more often than white employees. That kind of work rarely raises an employee’s profile, in contrast to “glamour work,” which is highly visible, helps people make a name for themselves and leads to promotions and other career success.

* Trust your gut: Don’t get gaslit!!
Unfair treatment in the workplace often comes in the form of “microaggressions” — subtle actions that undermine a person and are often explained away by forgetfulness, ignorance, or anything but the malice that usually inspired them. ....gather proof — your own, or someone else’s — to remove doubt (e.g. collect the data — literally document the number of times you’ve been asked to do the office housework). Also, take note of the instances where colleagues are asked to do glamour work, and who they are......find colleagues you can speak with candidly. This way you have a sounding board to help you objectively see through your own self-doubt and determine whether you’ve actually been slighted or ignored, or whether you’re being paranoid.

* You don’t have to be twice as good, but you do have to “manage up”

If you're often volunteering for work that’s less glamorous — the office housework — to make a positive impact, or be seen as active and engaged..... while this drive is well meaning, it can often be counterproductive, and it gives managers cover to ignore their own behaviors and implicit biases when assigning work or handing out opportunities. Your best tool in this case, she said, is learning the fine art of saying "no" without ruining your career......learn how to “manage up” viz a viz your boss. Recognizing quickly whether something is a small or large ask, and how it fits into your personal or team priorities is essential — and asking your boss for clarity on what your team’s priorities are is also essential.

* Beware the lure of “just helping out”.
learning to, and practicing how to, hold back the urge to constantly volunteer,”

* Protect your boundaries.
when some people use methods like these (e.g. “check your email once or twice a day instead of being always available” and “leave your work at work,” ) to improve their work/life balance, they’re seen as organized and productive. When women and workers of color do the same, they can be viewed seen as unmotivated, lazy, or disengaged......call out bias when you experience it,” Ms. Tulshyan said. “Again, it only works in environments where you have the psychological safety — which, sadly, is rare for employees of color — but I’ve taken managers aside in the past and said, ‘I’ve noticed you volunteered me for this committee again, but not my white male colleagues. Could we talk about that?’” The same tactic works in reverse. If you notice that your privileged colleagues are the only ones sent to conferences or given the opportunity to discuss the work your team is doing, mention it to your manager.

* Document everything: Data is your best friend.
keep a work diary of accomplishments and challenges.....look for allies,” “I’ve had a few more-privileged colleagues at my workplaces who would spread the word to our department on my behalf if I accomplished something noteworthy. The great thing is it seems to foster a lot more trust and celebration among the group than if you are always tooting your own horn.”....if you feel frustrated and marginalized, try to keep in mind why you do the work you do, and remember the people who are positively affected by it.
biases  disrespect  equality_of_opportunity  glamour_work  gut_feelings  HBR  managing_up  marginalization  note_taking  office_housework  privilege  productivity  protect_boundaries  record-keeping  say_"no"  sounding_boards  stereotypes  work_smarter  workplaces 
5 weeks ago by jerryking
Opinion | Why Harvard Was Wrong to Make Me Step Down
June 24, 2019 | The New York Times | By Ronald S. Sullivan Jr., Mr. Sullivan is a law professor at Harvard Law School.

In May, Harvard College announced that it would not renew the appointment of me and my wife, Stephanie Robinson, as faculty deans of Winthrop House, one of Harvard’s undergraduate residential houses, because I am one of the lawyers who represented the Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein in advance of his coming sexual assault trial. The administration’s decision followed reports by some students that they felt “unsafe” in an institution led by a lawyer who would take on Mr. Weinstein as a client.

I am willing to believe that some students felt unsafe. But feelings alone should not drive university policy. Administrators must help students distinguish between feelings that have a rational basis and those that do not. In my case, Harvard missed an opportunity to help students do that......I would hope that any student who felt unsafe as a result of my representation of Mr. Weinstein might, after a reasoned discussion of the relevant facts, question whether his or her feelings were warranted. But Harvard was not interested in having that discussion. Nor was Harvard interested in facilitating conversations about the appropriate role of its faculty in addressing sexual violence and the tension between protecting the rights of the criminally accused and treating survivors of sexual violence with respect.

Instead, the administration capitulated to protesters. Given that universities are supposed to be places of considered and civil discourse, where people are forced to wrestle with difficult, controversial and unfamiliar ideas, this is disappointing......reasoned discourse lost out to raw feelings......I am not opposed to student protest. Many important social justice movements began with student protests, including movements from which I, as an African-American, have benefited. Had it not been for students who staged sit-ins at lunch counters, I would not have had the opportunity to be trained at Harvard Law School.

But I am profoundly troubled by the reaction of university administrators who are in charge of student growth and development. The job of a teacher is to help students think through what constitutes a reasonable argument. It is a dereliction of duty for administrators to allow themselves to be bullied into ..Unchecked emotion has replaced thoughtful reasoning on campus. Feelings are no longer subjected to evidence, analysis or empirical defense. Angry demands, rather than rigorous arguments, now appear to guide university policy.
African-Americans  bullying  capitulation  Colleges_&_Universities  critical_thinking  firings  gut_feelings  Harvard  Harvey_Weinstein  HLS  intolerance  logic_&_reasoning  missed_opportunities  op-ed  policymaking  political_correctness  professors  protests  students 
june 2019 by jerryking
The Mystery of the Miserable Employees: How to Win in the Winner-Take-All Economy -
June 15, 2019 | The New York Times | By Neil Irwin.
Neil Irwin is a senior economics correspondent for The Upshot. He is the author of “How to Win in a Winner-Take-All-World,” a guide to navigating a career in the modern economy.......
What Mr. Ostrum and the analytics team did wasn’t a one-time dive into the numbers. It was part of a continuing process, a way of thinking that enabled them to change and adapt along with the business environment. The key is to listen to what data has to say — and develop the openness and interpretive skills to understand what it is telling us.......Neil Irwin was at Microsoft’s headquarters researching a book that aims to answer one simple question: How can a person design a thriving career today? The old advice (show up early, work hard) is no longer enough....In nearly every sector of the economy, people who seek well-paying, professional-track success face the same set of challenges: the rise of a handful of dominant “superstar” firms; a digital reinvention of business models; and a rapidly changing understanding about loyalty in the employer-employee relationship. It’s true in manufacturing and retail, in banking and law, in health care and education — and certainly in tech......superstar companies — and the smaller firms seeking to upend them — are where pragmatic capitalists can best develop their abilities and be well compensated for them over a long and durable career.....the obvious disadvantages of bureaucracy have been outweighed by some not-so-obvious advantages of scale......the ability to collect and analyze vast amounts of data about how people work, and what makes a manager effective (jk: organizing data) .... is essential for even those who aren’t managers of huge organizations, but are just trying to make themselves more valuable players on their own corporate team.......inside Microsoft’s human resources division, a former actuary named Dawn Klinghoffer ....was trying to figure out if the company could use data about its employees — which ones thrived, which ones quit, and the differences between those groups — to operate better......Klinghoffer was frustrated that ....insights came mostly from looking through survey results. She was convinced she could take the analytical approach further. After all, Microsoft was one of the biggest makers of email and calendar software — programs that produce a “digital exhaust” of metadata about how employees use their time. In September 2015, she advised Microsoft on the acquisition of a Seattle start-up, VoloMetrix, that could help it identify and act on the patterns in that vapor......One of VoloMetrix's foundational data sets, for example, was private emails sent by top Enron executives before the company’s 2001 collapse — a rich look at how an organization’s elite behave when they don’t think anyone is watching.
analytics  books  data  datasets  data_driven  exhaust_data  Fitbit  gut_feelings  human_resources  interpretative  Managing_Your_Career  massive_data_sets  meetings  metadata  Microsoft  Moneyball  organizational_analytics  organizing_data  people_analytics  quantitative  quantified_self  superstars  unhappiness  VoloMetrix  winner-take-all  work_life_balance 
june 2019 by jerryking
Supercharging retail sales through geospatial analytics
March 2019 | | McKinsey | By Rob Hearne, Alana Podreciks, Nathan Uhlenbrock, and Kelly Ungerman.

A retailer can now use geospatial analytics to understand the interactions between its online and offline channels. With these insights, it can create a higher-performing retail network.
====================================
Is our outlet store in San Francisco hurting foot traffic and sales at our full-price store two miles away? Or is it doing the opposite—attracting new customers and making them more likely to visit both stores? How are our five Manhattan stores affecting our e-commerce revenue? Are they making consumers more likely to shop on our website or to search for our products on Amazon? If we open a new mall store in the Dallas metro area, what impact will it have on sales at our existing stores, at our department-store partners, and online?

The answers to these kinds of questions are increasingly crucial to a retailer’s success, as more and more consumers become omnichannel shoppers......most retailers don’t give adequate thought to the cross-channel impact of their stores. They rely on gut feel or on high-level analysis of aggregated sales data to gauge how their offline and online channels interact.....there’s a way for retailers (and other omnichannel businesses) to quantify cross-channel effects, thus taking the guesswork out of network optimization. Through advanced geospatial analytics and machine learning, a retailer can now generate a detailed quantitative picture of how each of its customer touchpoints—including owned stores and websites, wholesale doors, and partner e-commerce sites—affects sales at all its other touchpoints within a micromarket......US retail sales are on an upward trajectory.....despite the growth of e-commerce, the vast majority of these purchases still happened in brick-and-mortar stores. .....So why have US retailers closed thousands of stores in the past year, with thousands more closures to come?....Because the consumer journey is changing!!......Consumers are transacting in different channels....engaging across multiple channels, often simultaneously rather than sequentially. It’s critical for omnichannel retailers to have a detailed understanding of the interplay between online and offline touchpoints, and between owned and partner networks.

Quantifying cross-channel effects

the starting point is data......from a wide range of internal and external sources. Inputs into a geospatial model would ideally include not just transaction and customer data but also store-specific details such as store size and product mix; site-specific information such as foot traffic and retail intensity; environmental data, including local-area demographics; and anonymized mobile-phone location data.......A simulation model can then quantify the sales effect of each of the retailer’s customer touchpoints on its other channels within a local market. The model must be sophisticated enough to simulate the upward or downward revenue impact of adding or removing a particular touchpoint.

Geospatial analysis reveals that the consistency and magnitude of cross-channel effects vary significantly across channel types and markets.
analytics  bricks-and-mortar  cross-channel  customer_journey  customer_touchpoints  data  e-commerce  foot_traffic  geospatial  gut_feelings  location_based_services  McKinsey  moments_of_truth  omnichannel  privacy  retailers  store_closings  security_consciousness  site_selection 
march 2019 by jerryking
Gut Feeling: To Stay Healthy, Keep Your Body’s Microbes in Line - WSJ
By Jo Craven McGinty
Aug. 17, 2018

the human body hosts a variety of microbes.....they helps digest our food, regulate our immune system and feed the cells that line the gut. But if its mix of microbes gets out of whack, the same organisms that ensure our health can make us sick.....“Not only irritable bowel syndrome and inflammatory bowel disease, but cardiovascular disease, even Parkinson’s, autism and multiple sclerosis,”.... illnesses—as well as obesity—have been transferred to mice by implanting (i.e. fecal transplants) the rodents with samples of the microbiomes of humans who suffer from the disorders.....The first step in understanding the microbiome is to document the assembly of microbes, and each person’s appears to be unique......Not all of the organisms in the human microbiome have been identified, but one of the better known is E. coli, a sometimes deadly bacteria that provided early evidence that microbes could be beneficial in treating human disease.

In World War I, a special kind of E. coli was found in a German soldier who, unlike his comrades, didn’t develop infectious diarrhea while stationed in an area of Europe where the disease was endemic.

E. coli Nissle, named for the professor who isolated the strain in 1917, became the active ingredient in a drug used to treat diarrhea, ulcerative colitis and other gastrointestinal disorders.
autism  bacteria  digestive_systems  E._coli  germs  gut_feelings  guts  microbes  microbiome  pathogens  mens'_health  gastrointestinal  human_anatomy 
august 2018 by jerryking
Dump the PowerPoints and do data properly — or lose money
APRIL 15, 2018 | FT| Alan Smith.

So what can data analysts in organisations do to get their messages heard?

Board members and senior managers certainly need to consider new ways of thinking that give primacy to data. But reasoning with data requires what psychologist Daniel Kahneman describes as “System 2 thinking” — the rational, reasoning self — and a move away from the “gut intuition” of System 1. That’s not an easy culture change to achieve overnight.

Freelance consultant, author and data visualisation expert Andy Kirk believes there is a duty of care on both analysts and their audiences to develop skills, particularly in relation to how data is communicated through an organisation.......many senior managers “neither have the visual literacy nor the confidence to be exposed to [data presentations] they don't understand — and they just don't like change”. Mr Kirk describes it as a kind of “Stockholm syndrome” in data form — “I’ve always had my report designed like this, I don't want anything different”.......data analysts need to nurture their communication skills, taking a responsibility for encouraging change and critical thinking, not just being “the data people”. Acting as agents of change, they need to be effective marketers of their skills and sensitive educators that show a nuanced appreciation of the needs of the business. Organisations that bind data to the business model — and data literacy to the board — will inevitably stand a better chance of achieving long-term change.....The truth is that data in the boardroom enjoys a patchy reputation, typified by dull, overlong PowerPoint presentations. A cynic might suggest that even the most recent addition to boardroom structures — the chief data officer — is used by many boards simply as a device to prevent other members needing to worry about the numbers.

Here are 3 techniques that can be used to encourage progressive change in the boardroom.
(1) Use KPIs that are meaningful and appropriate for answering the central questions about the business and the market it operates in. Try to eliminate “inertia metrics” — i.e. “we report this because we always do”.

(2) Rework boardroom materials so that they encourage board members to read data, preferably in advance of meetings, rather than glance at it during one. This might mean transforming the dreaded PowerPoint deck into something a little more journalistic, a move that will help engage “System 2” thinking.

(3) Above all, be aware of unconscious bias in the boardroom and focus on debunking it. Most of us are poor intuitive statisticians with biases that lurk deep in our “System 1” view of the world. There is insight, value and memorability in the surprise that comes with highlighting our own ignorance — so use data to shine a light on surprising trends, not to simply reinforce that which is already known.
absenteeism  boards_&_directors_&_governance  change  change_agents  Communicating_&_Connecting  Daniel_Kahneman  data  data_driven  gut_feelings  infographics  insights  KPIs  PowerPoint  psychologists  storytelling  surprises  visualization 
april 2018 by jerryking
Fine-Tune Your B.S. Detector: You’ll Need It - WSJ
March 19, 2018 | WSJ | By Elizabeth Bernstein.

HOW CAN YOU SPOT B.S.?
Check the source. Is this person an expert or in a position to know the information? Why is he or she telling me? What does the person have to gain?

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Remember that we all suffer from confirmation bias—we’re more likely to believe something that confirms what we already think or want.

Ask questions. Research shows people are more likely to B.S. when they feel they can get away with it. “Ask them simply: ‘Why do you think that? How do you know that is true?’” ......“This will get them thinking critically.”

Don’t trust your gut. People who pause and think about whether information is true are better able to detect false information, research shows. “Rely on your prior knowledge,”

Ask for evidence. This is different than an explanation, which people can continue to spin. Facts don’t lie—but check them to make sure they are real.

Pay attention to people who discount evidence. “I don’t care what the experts say” is a red flag that the person is using B.S.

Stay offline when you’re tired. Research shows we’re more vulnerable to false claims when our cognitive resources—that is, brain power—are depleted.
infoliteracy  Elizabeth_Bernstein  confirmation_bias  misinformation  howto  skepticism  evidence  critical_thinking  questions  gut_feelings  unshared_information  5_W’s  bullshitake  pay_attention  power_of_the_pause 
march 2018 by jerryking
A Former CIA Executive’s Advice On How To Make Hard Decisions | The future of business
05.28.15 | Fast Company | BY STEPHANIE VOZZA.
A Former CIA Executive’s Advice On How To Make Hard Decisions
A five-step decision-making process from a man who spent 25 years making life-and-death decisions.
(1) Question
(2) Drivers
(3) Metrics
(4) Data
(5) What's Missing/Blind Spots

1. FIND THE REAL QUESTION
Questions are NOT self-evident, says Mudd. Focusing on better questions up front yields better answers later.
“Good questions are hard to come up with,” he says. Delay data gathering and the conclusions.... think about exactly what it is we want to know..... Start with what you’re trying to accomplish and work your way back, instead of moving forward and making conclusions. The right question provides a decision advantage to the person at the head of the table.

2. IDENTIFY YOUR “DRIVERS”
Break down complex questions into characteristics or “drivers.” This approach gives you a way to manage data.
For example, sort data on Al Qaeda into information baskets that included money, recruits, leadership, communications, training, and access to weapons. When information flows in, rather than adding it to one unmanageable pile, sorting through it periodically, and offering a recitation of what appears to be relevant from the most recent stuff you’ve seen, file each bit into one of your baskets. Limit your drivers to 10.

3. DECIDE ON YOUR METRICS
Identify the metrics you’ll use to measure how the problem and solution are evolving over time.
What are the right metrics?
What are the new information sources and metrics?
Compare your thought process to the training process of an Olympic sprinter who measures success in hundredths of a second. “If we don’t, the analysis we provide will suffer the same fate as a sprinter who thinks he’s great but has never owned a stopwatch: he enters an elite competition, and reality intervenes,” Metrics provide a “mind mirror”–a system for judging your decisions. It provides a foundation for coming back to the table and assessing the process for success.

4. COLLECT THE DATA
Once you’ve built the framework that will help you make the hard decision, it’s time to gather the data. Overcome data overload by plugging data into their driver categories and excising anything that doesn’t fit. “Too much data might provide a false sense of security, and it doesn’t necessarily lead to clearer analytic decision making,”

Avoud intuition. It’s dangerous. Aggressively question the validity of your data. Once you have your data sorted, give yourself a grade that represents your confidence in assessing your question.

5. LOOK FOR WHAT’S MISSING
Complex analysis isn’t easy. Assume that the process is flawed and check for gaps and errors. Three common stumbling blocks are:

Availability bias: The instinct to rely on what you know or what has been most recently in the news.
Halo effect: When you write off the negative characteristics because you’re mesmerized by the positive attributes.
Intuitive versus analytic methodologies: when you go with your gut. Relying on intuition is dangerous.

Mudd says making complex decisions is hard work. “It’s a lot of fun to be an expert who bases their ideas on history and not a lot of fun to be an analyst who must always be assessing potential scenarios,” he says. “Every time you go into a problem, and before you rip into data, ask yourself, ‘Am I sure where I’m heading?’”
asking_the_right_questions  availability_bias  biases  decision_making  false_sense_of_security  gut_feelings  halo_effects  hard_choices  intuition  intelligence_analysts  life-and-death  metrics  Philip_Mudd  problem_definition  organizing_data  problem_framing  sorting  thinking_backwards 
october 2017 by jerryking
From Michael Lewis, a Portrait of the Men Who Shaped ‘Moneyball’ - The New York Times
By ALEXANDRA ALTERDEC. 3, 2016
Lewis decided to explore how it started.

The inquiry led him to the work of two Israeli psychologists, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, whose discoveries challenged long-held beliefs about human nature and the way the mind works.

Mr. Lewis chronicles their unusual partnership in his new book, “The Undoing Project,” a story about two unconventional thinkers who saw the world differently from everyone around them. Their peculiar area of research — how humans make decisions, often irrationally — has had profound implications for an array of fields, like professional sports, the military, medicine, politics, finance and public health.....Tversky and Kahneman's research demonstrating how people behave in fundamentally irrational ways when making decisions, relying on their gut rather than available data, gave rise to the field of behavioral economics. That discipline attracted Paul DePodesta, a Harvard student, who later went into sports management and helped upend professional baseball when he went to work for Mr. Beane.....Unlike many nonfiction writers, Mr. Lewis declines to take advances, which he calls “corrupting,” even though he could easily earn seven figures. Instead, he splits the profits from the books, as well as the advertising and production costs, with Norton. The setup spurs him to work harder and to make more money if the books are successful, he says.

“You should have the risk and you should enjoy the reward,” he said. “It’s not healthy for an author not to have the risk.”
Amos_Tversky  Michael_Lewis  Moneyball  books  book_reviews  unconventional_thinking  biases  cognitive_skills  unknowns  information_gaps  humility  pretense_of_knowledge  overconfidence  conventional_wisdom  overestimation  metacognition  behavioural_economics  irrationality  decision_making  nonfiction  writers  self-awareness  self-analysis  self-reflective  proclivities  Daniel_Kahneman  psychologists  delusions  self-delusions  skin_in_the_game  gut_feelings  risk-taking  partnerships 
december 2016 by jerryking
9 Affirmations the Most Successful People Repeat Each and Every Day | Inc.com
1. "I treat others the way they want to be treated."
2. "I am ever grateful." Gratitude allows happiness to come into my life. I define and talk about the things I am grateful for on a daily basis. I know that the No. 1 way for me to be happy is to choose to be grateful.
3. "I am accountable." I am reliable. I am responsible. I never blame others. I never make excuses. I take ownership of my successes as well as my mistakes. I know that my own performance is a direct result of what I think and the actions I take.
4. "I believe in myself." When I fail, I learn. My failures are temporary because my perseverance is permanent. I push forward at all times because I know I can succeed. As I continually believe in myself, my confidence increases.
5. "I have high standards." I do not let mediocrity enter my life. I am honest. I do not apologize for striving for excellence. My quality of life is a reflection of my high standards. By living up to my personal high standards, my confidence increases.
6. "I follow my heart." Time is precious, and everyone has something that they are passionate about. (jk: mybestlife) The cost of not following my heart is too great, I am going to live life with no regrets. As I follow my heart, my confidence increases.
7. "I trust my gut." I value my intuition, since it is based on my subconscious mind and conscious mind working in harmony. I know what is true, and I know what I want to be true. I trust my gut feelings, my inner voice. As I trust myself, my confidence increases.
8. "I am resilient." I have overcome many challenges and will overcome many more. The times that are the toughest are the times I learn the most. I never back down. I work hard and I push through. As I act in a resilient manner, my confidence increases.
9. "I help people." I matter because I make a difference. While I may get tired, I am not weary. I share myself and love to serve. By making a difference, my confidence increases.

If we tell ourselves our personal truth enough, it manifests into reality. Our reality and our actions will always match the story we believe.
affirmations  Jeff_Haden  mybestlife  gratitude  accountability  resilience  mediocrity  high-standards  next_play  gut_feelings  serving_others  passions  no_regrets  inner-directed  it's_up_to_me 
april 2016 by jerryking
Five ways training for a marathon inspired me as an entrepreneur - The Globe and Mail
DAVID SCHNURMAN
Young Entrepreneur Council
Published Tuesday, Jul. 29 2014

1. Keep your commitment. In business, you can’t let difficult challenges prevent you from following through with a plan.

What get one through these hard times is the commitment you make and a strong belief in wanting to break it.

2. Have a clear goal and strong plan. Many entrepreneurs grow their businesses by using their gut and intuition. When you hit adversity, not having a plan isn’t always the smartest choice.

A great thing about the marathon is that there is a clear goal of 26.2 miles and a proven training schedule. Since I didn’t have to put any additional thought into the goal or plan, I was able to focus all my energy on being mentally tough enough to keep up with the 30+ mile weeks and any life challenges that got in the way.

It made me realize the stronger my convictions are in my business goals and in my plan to get there, the more mentally tough I will become.

3. Go in with the right mindset. As business owners, we focus on outside challenges such as raising money, managing a team or acquiring new customers. While all of these issues are important and need to be addressed, they do not hold a candle to the internal challenges that we face on a daily basis: stress, self doubt, negativity, loss of focus, blaming others, fear of failure, etc.

If you have the right mindset and a positive attitude, no outside force can stop you in your journey to success. When training for the marathon, I turned to inspirational speeches and videos that I could listen to while I ran. Without these videos playing in a loop, it would have been hard for me to get through some of the tougher moments. You should apply the same type of inspirational experience sharing to business. It allows you to take the 10,000 foot-view and work on the business instead of in it.

4. Run through the wall. In business, we come up against walls all the time. They key is having the right partner or mentor to help see you through it.

While training, I was told that after mile 20 the same thing happens in the marathon. It happened at mile 23 of my first marathon; I hit a wall. My feet were burning and my legs had shooting pains. All the signals in my body were telling me to stop running. But I was lucky enough to have a more experienced running partner who kept pushing me the additional 30 minutes. He motivated me and kept my focus on the finish line instead of the pain.

In business, we all can benefit from other people’s expertise to get through the pain and hit our big goals.

5. Experience new things. Too often in life we get caught up in a daily routine. Luckily, as entrepreneurs, it’s in our DNA to shake it up and learn new things. During training, I ran through almost every NYC neighborhood and found that I can develop a deep focus for hours on end. I read new books that inspired me, met new people and took part in over a dozen races.

I have transformed my mentality from someone who never ran further than 4 miles to a marathon runner. Now, the sky is the limit.
entrepreneur  gut_feelings  hard_times  intrinsically_motivated  lessons_learned  marathons  mindsets  owners  positive_thinking  running 
august 2014 by jerryking
A Turnaround Job Can Make Your Career If You Choose Wisely
Sep. 19, 1995 | WSJ | HAL LANCASTER.

It's an age-old dilemma: Saving a sinking ship can make a career; but some ships can't be salvaged, and a high-profile failure can scuttle a promising career. (Yes, I know failures aren't supposed to be fatal any more because companies realize what valuable learning experiences they are. If you want fairy tales, you'll have to look elsewhere.)

So when is it prudent to take on a tough turnaround assignment? ... And how would she advise others weighing the risks of a turnaround assignment? Research, research and research, she says, and then go with your gut instinct. ``There's a point at which you have enough information to act,'' she says. ``If you wait to get everything, you're too late.''

If that philosophy doesn't work for you, try this one, from Gen. Colin Powell's list of rules to live by, which Ms. Lewis keeps on her office wall: ``Don't let adverse facts get in the way of a good decision.''
career-defining_moments  career_ending_moves  Colin_Powell  collectibles  decline  due_diligence  failure  gut_feelings  Hal_Lancaster  Managing_Your_Career  risks  turnarounds  women 
february 2013 by jerryking
Meet the New Boss: Big Data - WSJ.com
September 20, 2012, 11:16 a.m. ET

Meet the New Boss: Big Data
Companies Trade In Hunch-Based Hiring for Computer Modeling

Though hiring is a crucial business function, conventional methods are remarkably short on rigor, experts say. Depending on who decides, what gets candidates hired can vary wildly—from academic achievement to work experience to appearance. Managers who go with their gut might get it right sometimes, but their hunches generally have little value in predicting how someone will perform on the job. Companies peddling a statistical approach to hiring say they can improve results by reducing the influence of a manager's biases.

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massive_data_sets  data_driven  hiring  talent_management  gut_feelings  academic_achievement 
september 2012 by jerryking
Some speculative truth about Canada’s new gun crime - The Globe and Mail
Jul. 20 2012 | The Globe and Mail | James Sheptycki.

So we have a poisonous mixture: A pistolized culture of masculinity. A socio-economic structure of exclusion. An illicit opportunity structure in the market for illegal drugs. And rising levels of gun availability on the streets.

There is probably even more to it than that, since society’s reactions are often one-sided. Some people advocate cracking down on the drug economy. Some advocate drug decriminalization. Some say banning guns or bullets will work, or that we need stiffer penalties. Others want better social programs.

These policy struggles, playing out in the context of fiscal crisis, are most often discussed in hyper-masculine terms. Looking for the cheapest bang for the buck, we end up “combatting gangs” or “fighting crime” while going to “war on drugs.”

These amount to attempts at repression. But repression does not solve problems; it displaces them. This suggests that the solutions become part of the problem.

This issue is extremely complex, but these speculations are the start of a plausible explanation to what has been taking place in Canada for some time. But they are only a start.

There is a demand for quick and easy solutions, and the solutions had better be cost-effective and inexpensive. There is impatience when the response from academic criminologists is for further research.

But in the face of such complexity, and to test our understanding, Canadians need to demand evidence-based policymaking. Rationality and reason are required, as well as political will. Gut instinct is no good.
Toronto  violence  evidence_based  research  criminality  masculinity  illicit  drugs  economy  social_exclusion  guns  gut_feelings  policymaking 
july 2012 by jerryking
How to Plan for a Successful Retirement: Think Slow - WSJ.com
April 9, 2012 | WSJ | By DIANE COLE
So Much for Snap Decisions
A Nobel Prize winner explains why one secret to a successful retirement is to think 'slow'

the message that Daniel Kahneman, psychologist and Nobel Prize winner, delivers in his new book, "Thinking, Fast and Slow."

Typically, he says, people rely on blink-of-an-eye judgments, driven by emotion and impulse, in navigating life—even when we should be thinking "slow," using reason, deliberation and logic to weigh our options.

WSJ: In your book, you discuss overconfidence as a common pitfall. What impact does that have?

MR. KAHNEMAN: Overconfidence is everywhere. We all have clear and certain beliefs, and our certainty is not impaired by the fact that other people hold contradictory beliefs. We just think they are biased.

When optimism and overconfidence come together, you get many mistakes. Optimistic estimates can in retrospect seem almost delusional. One example is that people end up paying about twice as much as they originally expected to pay for kitchen renovations.

DANIEL KAHNEMAN: 'We all have clear and certain beliefs, and our certainty is not impaired by the fact that other people hold contradictory beliefs.'
DANIEL KAHNEMAN: 'We all have clear and certain beliefs, and our certainty is not impaired by the fact that other people hold contradictory beliefs.' JON ROEMER
WSJ: Is there a way to keep our self-certainty from blocking out other evidence?

MR. KAHNEMAN: You can imagine yourself trying to make the case for your belief before a skeptical judge.

It is even better to try to construct the best possible case against your own position, because searching for arguments that support your position is unlikely to lead you to correct your mistakes.
book_reviews  decision_making  retirement  howto  personal_finance  planning  financial_planning  Daniel_Kahneman  gut_feelings  optimism  overconfidence  thinking_deliberatively  Nobel_Prizes  self-certainty 
may 2012 by jerryking
Being Clear or Being Tough
In other words, you do not have to be a tough guy. You can, but it’s not required. What you do need to be is clear. Clear on your rules; clear on your objectives; clear on your decisions; and clear on whom you surround yourself with. You must have a Code of Honor that spells out the context of your business, your relationships and your life. Your Code of Honor ensures you remain “clear.”

In all of my businesses, I have had to make tough decisions, but I did not always have to be tough. Just clear that it either works or it doesn’t...it either supports the mission and team or it doesn’t...it either operates by the Code or it doesn’t.

When faced with choices, you have to have more than a ‘gut’ feeling in order to make them. Part of the problem is that most people cannot distinguish between their intuition and their emotional reaction. (Subject for next article!)

You have to have clear guidelines or a Code. Does that mean that every decision, choice or action is black and white? Of course not. But it gives you clarity of purpose, intention and direction.
Communicating_&_Connecting  decision_making  clarity  Code_of_Honor  values  hard_choices  intuition  emotions  gut_feelings 
march 2012 by jerryking
A Brief History Of DECISION MAKING
Based on Leigh Buchanan and Andre O’Connell, in Harvard Business Review,Jan.2006, p.32-41

Sometime around the middle of the past century, telephone executive Chester Barnard imported the term decision making
from public administration into the business world. There it began to replace narrower terms, like “resource allocation” and
“policy making,” shifting the way managers thought about their role from continuous, Hamlet-like deliberation toward a
crisp series of conclusions reached and actions taken.
Yet, decision making is, of course, a broad and ancient human pursuit, flowing back to a time when people sought guidance
from the stars. From those earliest days, we have strived to invent better tools for the purpose, from the Hindu-Arabic systems for numbering and algebra, to Aristotle’s systematic empiricism, to friar Occam’s advances in logic, to Francis Bacon’s inductive reasoning, to Descartes’s application of the
scientific method. A growing sophistication with managing risk, along with a nuanced understanding of human behavior and
advances in technology that support and mimic cognitive processes, has improved decision making in many situations.
Even so, the history of decision-making strategies – captured in this time line and examined in the four accompanying essays
on risk, group dynamics, technology, and instinct – has not marched steadily toward perfect rationalism. Twentieth-century theorists showed that the costs of acquiring information lead executives to make do with only good-enough decisions. Worse,
people decide against their own economic interests even when they know better. And in the absence of emotion, it’s impossible to make any decisions at all. Erroneous
framing, bounded awareness, excessive optimism: The debunking of Descartes’s rational man threatens to swamp our confidence
in our choices. Is it really surprising, then, that even as technology dramatically increases our access to information,
Malcolm Gladwell extols the virtues of gut decisions made, literally, in the blink of an eye?
decision_making  Octothorpe_Software  HBR  history  resource_allocation  Malcolm_Gladwell  Descartes  Francis_Bacon  good_enough  gut_feelings  human_behavior 
october 2011 by jerryking
Hiring Wrong—And Right
JANUARY 29, 2007| BusinessWeek |By Jack and Suzy Welch

the best way to handle hiring mistakes is to not hire them in the first place. Yes, bringing in the right people is, as noted above, a tough business fraught with pitfalls. But you can really improve your chances if you fight like hell against the three main hiring impulses that most often get managers into trouble.

The first is using your gut. Don't! When you have a big, crucial job opening to fill, it's just too easy to fall in love with a shiny new candidate who is on his best behavior, telling you exactly what you want to hear and looking like the answer to all your prayers. That's why you can never hire alone. Make sure a team coolly analyzes the candidate's credentials and conducts interviews. And by all means, make sure the team includes at least one real hard-nose—the kind of naysayer who is particularly good at sussing out the job fit and sniffing out the phonies.

The second instinct you have to fight is what we call the "recommendation reflex," in which managers rationalize away negative references with excuses like: "Well, our job is different." You should seek out your own references to call, not just the ones provided by the candidate, and force yourself to listen to what they have to tell you even if it ruins the pretty picture you are painting in your head.

Finally, fight the impulse to do all the talking. Yes, you want to sell your job, but not at all costs. In interviews, ask candidates about their last job—and then shut up for a good, long while. As they describe what they liked and what they didn't, you will likely hear much of what you really need to know about fit.

True, you may still make a mistake, but at least it won't be because you rushed. Save the speed for fixing things if they unfortunately go awry.
Jack_Welch  hiring  intuition  mistakes  decision_making  Octothorpe_Software  biases  impulse_control  gut_feelings  the_right_people 
october 2011 by jerryking
Jobs's Legacy: Changing How We Live - WSJ.com
AUGUST 25, 2011 | WSJ | By WALT MOSSBERG. Jobs changed the
way people live by being willing to take big risks on new ideas, and not
be satisfied with small innovations fed by market research. He insisted
on high quality and had the guts to leave out features others found
essential and to kill technologies, e.g. the floppy drive & the
removable battery. And he has been a brilliant marketer, personally
passionate about his products.. he introduced the dominant digital music
player, the iPod, & created the most successful digital media
service, iTunes. He introduced the first super-smartphone, the iPhone,
the only truly successful tablet computer, the iPad, which is in the
process of replacing the laptop, at least in part. He built the world's
largest app store and he built a phenomenally successful chain of retail
stores, too.

Jobs has dramatically changed the mobile phone industry, the music
industry, the film and TV industries, the publishing industry and
others.
Walter_Mossberg  Steve_Jobs  resignations  CEOs  Apple  marginal_improvements  moonshots  breakthroughs  legacies  imagination  risk-taking  gut_feelings  dissatisfaction 
august 2011 by jerryking
Google’s 8-Point Plan to Help Managers Improve - NYTimes.com
March 12, 2011 |NYT| By ADAM BRYANT. IN early 2009,
statisticians at Google began a plan code-named Project Oxygen. Their
mission was to devise a way to build better bosses. So, as only a
data-mining giant like Google can do, it began analyzing performance
reviews, feedback surveys and nominations for top-manager awards. They
correlated phrases, words, praise and complaints. Later that year, the
“people analytics” teams at the company produced what might be called
the Eight Habits of Highly Effective Google Managers. ...H.R. has long
run on gut instincts more than hard data. But a growing number of
companies are trying to apply a data-driven approach to the
unpredictable world of human interactions.
“Google is really at the leading edge of that,” says Todd Safferstone,
managing director of the Corporate Leadership Council of the Corporate
Executive Board, who has a good perch to see what H.R. executives at
more than 1,000 big companies are up to.
Google  Octothorpe_Software  human_resources  data_driven  data_mining  analytics  gut_feelings  correlations  praise  complaints 
march 2011 by jerryking
Why Less Brilliant Presidents Do Better - The Informed Reader - WSJ
Jun 18, 2007 | WSJ | Robin Moroney. Extreme intelligence might
undermine a person’s managerial capacity, he speculates. “What is
required at the top levels of govt. is not brilliance, but managerial
skill,” says Posner. That includes knowing “when to defer to the
superior knowledge of a more experienced but less mentally agile
subordinate.” Especially intelligent people also have difficulty
trusting the intuitions of less-articulate people who have more
experience than they do. That might be why many smart senior officials
in govt. have tried to reason their way through problems on their own,
assuming their civil servants’ inadequate explanations rendered their
judgments invalid. Furthermore, many of the situations that presidents
face are defined by uncertainty, rather than complexity. In cases e.g.
Vietnam, where presidents and their inner circle were dealing with an
ambiguous situation, “having great information-processing skills is not
worth a lot if you have no reliable info..”
ambiguities  civil_servants  complexity  execution  experience  Gary_Becker  gut_feelings  intuition  IQ  mental_dexterity  Richard_A._Posner  smart_people  uncertainty  White_House 
october 2010 by jerryking
How to tell good buys from bad: Talk to people, trust your gut
Jun 3, 2006 | Globe & Mail | by Avner Mandelman. 2 mths
ago Giraffe put an ad in RoB, looking for a research analyst. We asked
for a 1-pg. résumé, a half-pg. letter, and a 1-pg. tech stock pick/pan.
All presented themselves well, and some even gave interesting stock
picks/pans. Two things were missing: First, nearly all had based their
analysis on public, 2nd-hand data -- the kind that everyone else sees
also. Very few did primary field research and none thought it important
to highlight exclusive info. Instead, the recommendations were rife
with data copied from the Web, corporate filings or famous analysts'
reports. The interviewees saw their role as financial scientists
massaging data gathered by others, rather than gatherers of exclusive
info themselves. Second, very few spoke of the company's people: the
character of their pick's CEO, the trustworthiness of the CFO, or the
high integrity of the company's team viz. a viz the competition. This
lack of people-mention was glaring.

===========================================
A technique for finding out information about companies. When you talk to people , you do not ask them to talk about their company. What you do is ask them to talk about the other company. That is not reg FD or insider information per se. It is their observations on the generalized business conditions and what the other companies are doing. Folks like to shoot their mouths off about other people
Avner_Mandelman  research_methods  hiring  sleuthing  due_diligence  proprietary  exclusivity  primary_field_research  secondary_research  research_analysts  gut_feelings 
february 2010 by jerryking
Consultant Lets Clients Use 'Gut' To Set Final Fee - WSJ.com
AUGUST 21, 2006 | WSJ | by JACLYNE BADAL on how management
consultants, Trium, are allowing clients to weigh in on fees in a novel fashion.
management_consulting  pricing  novel  DIY  fees_&_commissions  billing  gut_feelings 
march 2009 by jerryking

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