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jerryking : imposters   4

2014’s lessons for leaders: Don’t make assumptions, do make hard decisions - The Globe and Mail
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Dec. 26 2014,

Life has a way of lifting you by the lapels and giving you a good shake. Stuff happens, and when it does, it can throw all the steady paths predicted by pundits, pollsters and economic forecasters into the trash heap....Canadians are fixated on who the winners and losers of the "where will oil prices head" game ...but we need to lift our heads a bit. Russia’s falling ruble and the debt crisis of its elites and their companies have rightly grabbed headlines. But a couple of countries, notably Nigeria and Venezuela, are now in political crisis, and their very stability is at risk in the days ahead.

One of the implications of the 2008 world economic crisis is that regional and world institutions have much less room to manoeuvre and help sort things out. it will be harder for those agencies (EU, IMF) to do as much as is required. Stability doesn’t come cheap....a healthy dose of reality and skepticism is always a good idea. In a useful piece of advice, Rudyard Kipling reminded us that triumph and disaster are both imposters. People draw too many conclusions from current trends. They fail to understand that those trends can change. And that above all, they forget that events can get in the way....One clear lesson is for leaders everywhere to learn the importance of listening and engagement. The path to resolution of even the thorniest of problems...involves less rhetoric and bluster and a greater capacity to understand underlying interests and grievances. ... Engagement should never mean appeasement.
Bob_Rae  pundits  decision_making  leaders  unintended_consequences  predictions  WWI  humility  Toronto  traffic_congestion  crisis  instability  listening  engagement  unpredictability  Rudyard_Kipling  petro-politics  imposters  short-sightedness  amnesia_bias  interests  grievances  appeasement  hard_choices 
december 2014 by jerryking
Also Stalking the Fund Industry: Obsolescence -
Dec. 10, 2003 | WSJ | Holman W. Jenkins.

Quiz for economists: Suppose you have a competitive, transparent industry that one day begins acting in a more short-sighted, exploitative way towards its customers. What's really going on?

Here's a hint: Think of the gradual slide toward sleazier marketing by the traditional long-distance companies. When your business has a future, you invest in customer relationships. When you see your future going away, you milk them like the wasting assets they are. Big swaths of the fund management business are behaving exactly like an industry in decline...Mutual funds exploded in the 1990s, growing from less than $2 trillion in assets to $7 trillion. A long bull market helped to conceal the fact many of these entrants brought no value to the table. Their managers were, on average, merely as lucky as everyone else to be standing in the right place at the right time.
mutual_funds  Holman_Jenkins  Eliot_Spitzer  industry_analysis  obsolescence  customer_satisfaction  financial_services  luck  short-sightedness  sleaze  customer_relationships  exploitation  bull_markets  imposters  decline  '90s  cash_cows 
december 2013 by jerryking
Innovation isn’t in Canada’s DNA
July 24, 2009 | | by Paul Wells. “I don’t think
you could say that innovation is deeply in the DNA of our Canadian
business enterprises,” he said. “We have built prosperity, up to and
including this decade, on a fairly basic paradigm: we are rich in
natural resources. We’re good at harvesting them. And we have built a
manufacturing and processing sector, and to some degree a services
sector, which has been quite successful in exploiting access to the U.S.

So Canadian business often doesn’t do much more than build factories 20
km north of the U.S. border and lob products 50 km south. For years,
that model got a lot of help from a cheap Canadian dollar. “I got into a
certain amount of trouble when I was deputy prime minister for saying
you shouldn’t mistake a bull market for brains. The fact that the
Canadian dollar was trading at 62 cents . . . you shouldn’t take that
for granted.”
innovation  John_Manley  productivity  Canadian  CCCE  Paul_Wells  complacency  natural_resources  beyondtheU.S.  loonie  weak_dollar  bull_markets  imposters 
september 2011 by jerryking

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