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Opinion | The United Kingdom Has Gone Mad - The New York Times
By Thomas L. Friedman
Opinion Columnist

April 2, 2019

What do the most effective leaders today have in common? They wake up every morning and ask themselves the same questions: “What world am I living in? What are the biggest trends in this world? And how do I educate my citizens about this world and align my policies so more of my people can get the best out of these trends and cushion the worst?”

So what world are we living in?

(1) We’re living in a world that is becoming so interconnected — thanks to digitization, the internet, broadband, mobile devices, the cloud and soon-to-be 5G wireless transmissions — that we are becoming interdependent to an unprecedented degree. In this world, growth increasingly depends on the ability of yourself, your community, your town, your factory, your school and your country to be connected to more and more of the flows of knowledge and investment — and not just rely on stocks of stuff........The key to creating economic value has been to acquire some proprietary knowledge stocks, aggressively protect those knowledge stocks and then efficiently extract the economic value from those knowledge stocks and deliver them to the market. The challenge in a more rapidly changing world is that knowledge stocks depreciate at an accelerating rate. In this kind of world, the key source of economic value shifts from stocks to flows......yet Britain is ruled today by a party that wants to disconnect from a connected world....
(2) Understand that in a world of simultaneous accelerations in technology and globalization, keeping your country as open as possible to as many flows as possible is advantageous for two reasons: You get all the change signals first and have to respond to them and you attract the most high-I.Q. risk-takers, who tend to be the people who start or advance new companies.....The best talent wants to go to the most open systems — open both to immigrants and trade — because that is where the most opportunities are. Britain is about to put up a big sign: GO AWAY.
(3) wise leaders also understand that all the big problems today are global problems, and they have only global solutions: climate change, trade rules, technology standards and preventing excesses and contagion in financial markets......small states/middle powers need to be part of a wider coalition like the European Union.
(4) the best leaders know a little history. Trump is fine with a world of competitive European nationalisms, not a strong European Union. So is Vladimir Putin. So, it seems, are the Brexiteers. How quickly they’ve all forgotten that the E.U. and NATO were built to prevent the very competitive nationalism that ran riot in Europe in the 20th century and brought us two world wars.
open_borders  accelerated_lifecycles  Brexit  Tom_Friedman  United_Kingdom  21st._century  EU  historical_amnesia  history  information_flows  interconnections  middle-powers  proprietary  questions  small_states  interdependence  talent_flows 
april 2019 by jerryking
The Data Behind Dining
FEB 7, 2017 | The Atlantic | BOURREE LAM.

Damian Mogavero, a dining-industry consultant, has analyzed the data behind thousands of restaurants—which dishes get ordered, which servers bring in the highest bills, and even what the weather’s like—and found that these metrics can help inform the decisions and practices of restaurateurs.....Mogavero recently wrote a book about analytics called The Underground Culinary Tour—which is also the name of an annual insider retreat he runs, in which he leads restaurateurs from around the nation to what he considers the most innovative restaurants in New York City, with 15 stops in 24 hours.....they really understood the business problem that I understood, as a frustrated restaurateur. There was not accessible information to make really important business decisions.

Lam: Why is it that the restaurant business tends to be more instinct-driven than data-driven?

Mogavero: It is so creative, and it really attracts innovative and creative people who really enjoy the art and the design of the guest experience. When I was a frustrated restaurateur, I would ask my chefs and managers simple questions, such as: Who are your top and bottom servers? Why did your food costs go up? Why did your labor costs go up? And they would give me blank stares, wrong answers, or make up stuff. The thing that really killed me is why so much time gets spent in administrative B.S.

They were frustrated artists in their own way, because all those questions I was posing were buried in a bunch of Excel spreadsheets. What I like to say is, nothing good ever happens at the back office. You can't make customers happy and you can’t cook great food there. That was the business problem that I saw. I assembled a chef, a sommelier, a restaurant manager, and three techies as the founding team of the company. The message was: We’re going to create software, so you can get back to what you love to do with a more profitable operation.......Mogavero: Because information is flowing so quickly, you’re likely to see trends from a big city go to a secondary city more often. But you’ll see regional trends come to the big city as well. It’s all part of this information flow that’s more transparent and faster. The secondary-market awakening is coupled with the fact that it’s really expensive for chefs to live in big cities, and we’re seeing many chefs leaving the big cities.
bullshitake  dining  data  books  restaurants  data_driven  New_York_City  innovation  restauranteurs  analytics  back-office  information_flows  secondary_markets 
may 2017 by jerryking
Thomas Friedman’s Guide to Hanging On in the ‘Age of Accelerations’ - Bloomberg
by Paul Barrett
November 11, 2016,

Thank You for Being Late: An Optimist’s Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations (Farrar, Straus & Giroux, $28)....the wisdom of pausing.... take time “to just sit and think”— a good reminder for the overcommitted.....Friedman's “core argument,” is his description of our disruptive times. By “accelerations,” he means the increases in computing power, which are enabling breakthroughs from 3D printing to self-driving cars. Meanwhile, globalization is creating vast wealth for those who capitalize on innovation and impoverishment for populations who don’t. All of this sped-up economic activity contributes to rising carbon levels, feeding the climate change that threatens civilization.....Friedman relishes catchphrases like “the Big Shift,” borrowed in this case from the HBR. He deploys B-school jargon to explain it, but the definition boils down to companies making the move from relying exclusively on in-house brainpower, patents, and data to exploiting “flows” of knowledge from anywhere in the world.... Friedman makes the case for changed policies to respond to the accelerations he chronicles.
accelerated_lifecycles  sustained_inquiry  Tom_Friedman  books  slack_time  reflections  3-D  globalization  impoverishment  climate_change  in-house  talent_flows  information_flows  GE  prizes  bounties  innovation  contests  contemplation  patents  data  brainpower  jargon  thinking  timeouts  power_of_the_pause 
january 2017 by jerryking
The value shift: Why CFOs should lead the charge in the digital age | Deloitte US | CFO Program
William (Bill)J. Ribaudo, a partner at Deloitte & Touche LLP

Given CFOs’ fiduciary responsibility to deliver shareholder value, it makes sense that they should be leaders in digital business model innovation. When the evidence shows that each marginal dollar can be spent to generate value at a multiplier of 1, 2, 4, or 8 times revenue.

Four business models driving value

The rise of intangibles as a part of total market and corporate value has occurred in conjunction with the proliferation of new business models. Our research, in fact, shows that almost every company fits into one of four types business models, regardless of industry or function—and each one corresponds to a shift in technology and asset structure. Specifically, companies predominantly fall into one of the following categories, based on the way they create value:

Asset Builders. These companies build, develop, and lease physical assets to make, market, distribute, and sell physical things. Examples include everything from automakers to chemical manufacturers, big box retailers, and distribution and delivery businesses.
Service Providers. These companies hire employees who provide services to customers or produce billable hours for which they charge. Examples include consulting firms and financial institutions.
Technology Creators. These companies develop and sell intellectual property such as software, analytics, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology. Examples include software, big-data tools, and medical-device companies.
Network Orchestrators. These companies create a network of peers in which the participants interact and share in the value creation. They may sell products or services, build relationships, share advice, give reviews, collaborate, co-create, and more. Examples include online financial exchanges, social media businesses, and credit card companies.
Deloitte  business_models  CFOs  digital_economy  orchestration  information_flows  networks  platforms  multiplier_effect  physical_assets  intangibles  valuations  multiples  ecosystems  value_creation  shareholder_value  value_migration 
september 2016 by jerryking
At BlackRock, a Wall Street Rock Star’s $5 Trillion Comeback - The New York Times
SEPT. 15, 2016 | NYT | By LANDON THOMAS Jr.

(1) Laurence Fink: “If you think you know everything about our business, you are kidding yourself,” he said. “The biggest question we have to answer is: ‘Are we developing the right leaders?’” “Are you,” he asked, “prepared to be one of those leaders?”

(2) BlackRock was thriving because of its focus on low-risk, low-cost funds and the all-seeing wonders of Aladdin. BlackRock sees the future of finance as being rules-based, data-driven, systematic investment styles such as exchange-traded funds, which track a variety of stock and bond indexes or adhere to a set of financial rules. Fink believes that his algorithmic driven style will, over time, grow faster than the costlier “active investing” model in which individuals, not algorithms, make stock, bond and asset allocation decisions.

Most money management firms highlight their investment returns first, and risk controls second. BlackRock has taken a reverse approach: It believes that risk analysis, such as gauging how a security will trade if interest rates go up or down, improves investment results.

(3) BlackRock, along with central banks, sovereign wealth funds — have become the new arbiters of "flow.“ It is not about the flow of securities anymore, it is about the flow of information and indications of interest.”

(4) Asset Liability and Debt and Derivatives Investment Network (Aladdin), is BlackRock's big data-mining, risk-mitigation platform/framework. Aladdin is a network of code, trades, chat, algorithms and predictive models that on any given day can highlight vulnerabilities and opportunities connected to the trillions that BlackRock firm tracks — including the portion which belongs to outside firms that pay BlackRock a fee to have access to the platform. Aladdin stress-tests how securities will respond to certain situations (e.g. a sudden rise in interest rates or what happens in the event of a political surprise, like Donald J. Trump being elected president.)

In San Francisco, a team of equity analysts deploys data analysis to study the language that CEOs use during an earnings call. Unusually bearish this quarter, compared with last? If so, maybe the stock is a sell. “We have more information than anyone,” Mr. Fink said.
systematic_approaches  ETFs  Wall_Street  BlackRock  Laurence_Fink  asset_management  traders  complacency  future  finance  Aladdin  risk-management  financiers  financial_services  central_banks  money_management  information_flows  volatility  economic_downturn  liquidity  bonds  platforms  frameworks  stress-tests  monitoring  CEOs  succession  risk-analysis  leadership  order_management_system  sovereign_wealth_funds  market_intelligence  intentionality  data_mining  collective_intelligence  risk-mitigation  rules-based  risks  asset_values  scaling  scenario-planning  databases 
september 2016 by jerryking
Mister Right ·
APRIL 2011 | thewalrus.ca | bY MICHAEL POSNER

In recent years, the PMO has grown dramatically in size and power. The chief of staff functions like a consigliere: as well as calling signals for every offensive and defensive manoeuvre and controlling information flows, he’s the PM’s sounding board and last line of defence on every significant matter. “The important detail about Nigel,” says David Frum, “is that he’s ultra fair minded. His role isn’t to put his own thumb on the scale in terms of what gets presented to the prime minister. In other words, I don’t think you get these jobs unless you do have strong views, but you can’t succeed unless you’re able to put those views to one side. Nigel can and will.”
In the best of political circumstances, the chief of staff has the second-toughest job in Ottawa. University of Toronto political scientist Nelson Wiseman says it requires “a massive skill set. You’re overseeing 120-odd people, liaising with the Privy Council Office, dealing with the party caucus and the regional desks, coordinating four or five policy people and half a dozen speechwriters. Essentially, you’re the eyes, ears, and nose of the prime minister, and you have to be a very quick study.” Under Harper, an obsessive-compulsive micromanager who has brooked no serious opposition to his thinking (he’s been known to rehearse the remarks of his own ministers at cabinet meetings, in preparation for question period in the House of Commons), the job will likely be even tougher.
Nigel_Wright  Stephen_Harper  Onex  chief_of_staff  truth-telling  PMO  PCO  consigliere  information_flows  micromanagement 
july 2014 by jerryking
Market Trends and Retailers’ Strategies in Fresh Produce
26-27 April 2007 | Dr. Marian Garcia, Kent Business School, University of Kent.

Suppliers of fresh produce are less able to differentiate their products at the consumer level
==> They are in a weak bargaining position as price differentiation is almost the only available strategy.

Impact on Fresh Produce Suppliers
* Despite increasing rationalization of the supply base, retailers are still able to switch volumes between suppliers of fresh produce.
* As a result, suppliers of fresh produce are often forced to accept low prices in order to get volume growth, which does little to improve their immediate and long-term financial performance.
* In response to consumer trends and marketing demands, innovative growers of fresh produce have increased their cooperation and involvement with buyers and other members of the supply chain to ensure their produce meet consumer expectations.
* Closer relationships between the various members in the supply chain, ensure information is shared and can be used to improve the competitive position of all members in that supply chain.
fresh_produce  marketing  trends  consolidation  information_flows  grocery  supermarkets  OPMA  strategies  retailers  Tesco  Sainsbury's  ASDA  supply_chains  private_labels  relationships 
january 2014 by jerryking
Lessons I learned from SNC-Lavalin’s woes
Jul. 26 2013 | - The Globe and Mail | by GWYN MORGAN.

Information is key

Because directors get most of their information from people within the company, they need to do everything they can to build and diversify their sources. There should be a robust whistle-blower system, independent of management, so employees can pass on information to directors without fear of reprisal.

Financial reporting structures matter. Internal auditors should report directly – and only – to the chair of the audit committee, not to management. The chief financial officer should have a direct reporting relationship to the audit committee chair. Operating division comptrollers should report to the CFO, not to the division leader or the business-unit head.

Focus on leadership

It’s important to have strong financial controls and ethical codes, but they will fail unless all people in leadership roles, from the CEO on down, follow them diligently and consistently.

Culture, culture, culture

It is said that corporate culture is defined by how people act when no one is looking. But it is also defined by how employees react when they see behaviour that is inconsistent with the values of the organization. When their reaction is, “We’re not going to let this happen in our company,” the organization is built upon a solid ethical foundation.
Gwyn_Morgan  boards_&_directors_&_governance  lessons_learned  SNC-Lavalin  scandals  engineering  information  information_flows  financial_reporting  financial_controls  auditors  CFOs  leadership  organizational_culture  whistleblowing  ethics  information_sources  reprisals 
july 2013 by jerryking
The Effectiveness of Facilitated Business-to-Business Word-of Mouth Marketing Strategies on Target Participants’ Information Sharing Behavior
Volume 12, Issue 2, 2009 | International Food and Agribusiness Management Review | Pei Xu, Joan Fulton, Corinne Alexander, and Jay Akridge.
Word-of-mouth  B2B  information_flows  agribusiness  agriculture  farming 
october 2012 by jerryking
Determinants of the Use of Information: An Empirical Study of German Pig Farmers
Volume 15, Issue 1, 2012 |International Food and Agribusiness Management Review | byLudwig Arens a, Cord-Herwig Plumeyerb and Ludwig Theuvsenc
information_flows  farming  agriculture  agribusiness  pork 
october 2012 by jerryking
The ‘new cold war’ is an information war -
Aug. 25 2012 | The Globe and Mail | Anne-Marie Slaughter.
In the many manifestations of the ongoing and growing information war(s), the pro-freedom-of-information forces need a new weapon. A government’s banning of journalists or blocking of news and social-media sites that were previously allowed should be regarded as an early warning sign of a crisis meriting international scrutiny. The presumption should be that governments with nothing to hide have nothing to lose by allowing their citizens and internationally recognized media to report on their actions.

To give this presumption teeth, it should be included in international trade and investment agreements. Imagine if the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and regional development banks suspended financing as soon as a government pulled down an information curtain. Suppose foreign investors wrote contracts providing that the expulsion and banning of foreign journalists or widespread blocking of access to international news sources and social media constituted a sign of political risk sufficient to suspend investor obligations.

Americans say that sunlight is the best disinfectant. Citizens’ access to information is an essential tool to hold governments accountable. Government efforts to manipulate or block information should be presumed to be an abuse of power – one intended to mask many other abuses.
accountability  information_flows  information  journalists  censorship  political_risk  warning_signs  freedom_of_information  information_warfare  IMF  World_Bank  Anne-Marie_Slaughter  presumptions  transparency 
august 2012 by jerryking
Making Sense of Ambiguous Evidence
September 2008 | HBR | A Conversation with Documentary Filmmaker Errol Morris.

The information that top managers receive is rarely unfiltered. Unpopular opinions are censored. Partisan views are veiled as objective arguments. Honest mistakes are made. The manager is then left to sort it all out and come to a wise conclusion.

Few people know how to get an accurate read on a situation like documentarian Errol Morris. He is the award-winning director of such films as The Thin Blue Line and this year’s Standard Operating Procedure, an exploration of the elusive truth behind the infamous photographs taken at Abu Ghraib prison. The Guardian has ranked him among the world’s top 10 directors, crediting him with “a forensic mind” and “a painter’s eye.”

In this article, Morris talks with HBR’s Lisa Burrell about how he sorts through ambiguous evidence and contradictory views to arrive at the real story. “I don’t believe in the postmodern notion that there are different kinds of truth,” he says. “There is one objective reality, period.” Getting to it requires keeping your mind open to all kinds of evidence—not just the parts that fit with your first impressions or developing opinions—and, often, far more investigation than one would think.

If finding the truth is a matter of perseverance, convincing people of it is something of an art, one with which Morris has had much experience not only as a documentarian but also as a highly sought-after director of TV ads for companies like Apple, Citibank, Adidas, and Toyota. He holds up John Kerry’s 2004 bid for the U.S. presidency as a cautionary tale: Kerry struck voters as inauthentic when he emphasized only his military service and failed to account for his subsequent war protest. Morris would have liked to interview him speaking in his own words—natural, unscripted material—so that his humanity, which seemed to get lost in the campaign, could emerge.
anecdotal  HBR  executive_management  CEOs  contradictions  information  information_flows  evidence_based  information_gaps  authenticity  sense-making  ambiguities  uncertainty  persuasion  forensics  postmodern  filmmakers  documentaries  judgment  cautionary_tales 
august 2012 by jerryking
Seth's Blog: On making a ruckus in your industry
Seth Godin on April 07, 2012

* Bring forward a new idea or technology that disrupts and demands a response
* Change pricing dramatically
* Redefine a service as a product (or vice versa)
* Organize the disorganized, connect the disconnected
* Alter the speed to market radically
* Change the infrastructure, the rules or the flow of information
* Give away what used to be expensive and charge for something else
* Cater to the weird, bypassing the masses
* Take the lead on ethics

(Or you could just wait for someone to tell you what they want you to do)
Seth_Godin  blogs  disruption  pricing  information_flows  free  ethics  niches  change_agents  disorganization  ideas  new_businesses  idea_generation  disconnecting  Tabla  game_changers  Play_Bigger 
may 2012 by jerryking
Google carrying real-time data from EU exchanges
Associated Press | Posted: Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Google's real-time stock quotes are a potential threat to financial information providers such the Thomson Reuters Corp. and Bloomberg L.P., which earn revenue through the provision of up-to-second market data to traders and analysts. Units of Reuters and Bloomberg compete with The Associated Press.

In an email, Google said it was trying to "provide consumers with the best information as quickly as possible."
data  competingonanalytics  stockmarkets  EU  Thomson_Reuters  Bloomberg  Google  disruption  information  information_flows  real-time  financial_data 
february 2012 by jerryking
World Bank Is Opening Its Treasure Chest of Data
July 2, 2011 | NYT|By STEPHANIE STROM. The World Bank’s
traditional role has been to finance specific projects that foster eco.
dvlpmnt,...it might come as a surprise that its president , Robert
Zoellick, argues that the most valuable currency of the WB isn’t its $—
it is its information. ...For > a yr, the WB has been releasing its
prized data sets, currently giving public access to more than 7,000 that
were previously available only to some 140,000 subscribers — mostly
govts & researchers, who paid for access. ...Those data sets contain
all sorts of info. about the developing world, whether workaday
economic stats — GDP, CPI & the like — or arcana like the # of women
are breast-feeding their children in rural Peru.

It is a trove unlike anything else in the world, and, it turns out,
highly valuable. For whatever its accuracy or biases, this data defines
the economic reality of billions of people and is used in making
policies & decisions that enormously impact their lives.
World_Bank  information_flows  data  databases  massive_data_sets  transparency  open_source  Robert_Zoellick  crowdsourcing  mashups  datasets  decision_making  policymaking  developing_countries 
july 2011 by jerryking
Seth's Blog: Information about information
Posted by Seth Godin on July 15, 2010.

information about information. That's what Facebook and Google and Bloomberg do for a living. They create a meta-layer, a world of information about the information itself.

And why is this so valuable? Because it compounds. A tiny head start in access to this information gives you a huge advantage in the stock market. Or in marketing. Or in fundraising.

Many people and organizations are contributing to this mass of data, but few are taking advantage of the opportunity to collate it and present it to people who desperately need it. Think about how much needs to be sorted, compared, updated and presented to people who want to choose or learn or trade on it.

The race to deliver this essential scalable asset isn't over, it's just beginning.
information_flows  Information_Rules  Seth_Godin  data_driven  competingonanalytics  overlay_networks  sorting  metadata  slight_edge  compounded  inequality_of_information  multiplicative  cumulative 
july 2010 by jerryking
The Misguided Attack on Derivatives - WSJ.com
APRIL 26, 2010 | Wall Street Journal | By L. GORDON CROVITZ.
Short-selling warns markets that an asset bubble is about to burst.
Easy money, easy mortgages, and banks too big to fail were key causes of
the credit crisis. It was also Wall Street's greatest information
failure in many years. We need more trading, not less, and more signals
in the market faster that prices need to be adjusted. The last thing we
need is outlawing opportunities for people like Mr. Paulson to bring
vital information to market.
derivatives  L._Gordon_Crovtiz  John_Paulson  information_gaps  signals  information_flows  too_big_to_fail  short_selling  bubbles 
april 2010 by jerryking
New rules for big data
Feb 27, 2010 | The Economist Vol. 394, Iss. 8671; pg. 16 |
Anonymous. Now the information flows in an era of abundant data are
changing the relationship between technology and the role of the state
once again. Many of today's rules look increasingly archaic. Privacy
laws were not designed for networks. Rules for document retention
presume paper records. And since all the information is interconnected,
it needs global rules. New principles for an age of big data sets will
need to cover six broad areas: privacy, security, retention, processing,
ownership and the integrity of information.
archaic  data_ownership  data_quality  information_flows  interconnections  massive_data_sets  privacy  ProQuest  rules_of_the_game 
march 2010 by jerryking
Rajaratnam: Relentless Pursuit of Data - WSJ.com
OCTOBER 24, 2009 | Wall Street Journal | by GREGORY ZUCKERMAN
and ROBERT A. GUTH. The power of the "edge," as Mr. Rajaratnam called
it, also was reflected in how Galleon was organized. At most hedge
funds, traders are supposed to simply execute a firm's trades, which are
dictated by analysts and portfolio managers. Galleon had a different
approach: putting traders in charge of their own capital. A trader who
showed promise would sometimes be given $25 million to $50 million to
invest in a semi-autonomous fashion. To be sure, gathering information
is the lifeblood of most hedge funds. But when it is material, nonpublic
information about a company, it can expose a trader to accusations of
insider trading.
insider_information  Wall_Street  insider_trading  information_flows  private_information  hedge_funds  Raj_Rajaratnam  slight_edge  nonpublic  traders 
october 2009 by jerryking
Groups: Turn Information Overload Into an Asset
May 25, 2009 2:46 PM | ReadWriteWeb| Written by Marshall Kirkpatrick.
information_flows  information_overload  conversions  grouping 
june 2009 by jerryking
Easy Credit and the Depression - WSJ.com
MAY 5, 2009 | Wall Street Journal | by L. GORDON CROVITZ.
Judge Richard Posner's "A Failure of Capitalism: The Crisis of '08 and
the Descent into Depression". Explains behavior that looks irrational in
retrospect shows that it was logical, based on incentives at the time.
Prevention requires regulators with access to public and private
information to track systemic risk and clear, predictable rules for how
the Federal Reserve and other regulators would respond to various risk
situations.
L._Gordon_Crovtiz  economic_downturn  Richard_A._Posner  risks  book_reviews  credit  predictability  failure  U.S._Federal_Reserve  regulators  incentives  information  information_flows  irrationality  systemic_risks  causality  public_information  private_information  hindsight  rules-based 
may 2009 by jerryking
Pandemics and Poor Information - WSJ.com
MAY 11, 2009 | Wall Street Journal | by L. GORDON CROVITZ.
Whenever there's a threat of epidemic, alongside early deaths comes the casualty of information. Asian governments at least learned from their recent experience of bird flu and SARS the importance of not covering up outbreaks. The still open question is how to assess warnings that health professionals make based on inadequate information. Almost by definition, the risk of an epidemic occurs when the one thing disease experts know for sure is that they don't know for sure what will happen.
"What new information would be sufficient to change your decision?"

Alexander's question (AKA 'Dr. Alexander's question') is a question used to uncover assumptions and associations that may be confusing your judgment. Asking what information would be needed to change your mind can help bring faulty reasoning to light, and it can also point out what facts you should be researching before committing yourself and others to a course of action.

The uncertainty about the longer-term threat of the current swine flu is a
reminder that nature is more complex than mathematical models.Scientific
hypotheses can then be tested, but this approach has limits when it
comes to predictions.
"Alexander's Question," named for a physician who had posed a canny
question of his fellow experts: What information might make the group
change its mind about the need for immunization? Focusing on it would
have led to more focus on uncertainties: the trade-off between side
effects and flu, the difference between the severity of the flu and its
spread, and the choice between mandatory vaccinations and stockpiling in
case of later need. Decision makers should ask themselves what new
"knowns" would change their views.
pandemics  epidemics  risk-assessment  L._Gordon_Crovtiz  information_flows  information  decision_making  immunization  critical_thinking  uncertainty  assumptions  questions  Dr.Alexander's_Question  information_gaps  hidden  latent  facts  change_your_mind  problem_framing  tradeoffs  flu_outbreaks  side_effects  vaccines  stockpiles  information-poor  CDC  unknowns 
may 2009 by jerryking
Cargill's Inside View Helps It Buck Downturn
Jan 14, 2009, WSJ article on Cargill.

"Cargill freely acknowledges it strives to profit from that information.
"When we do a good job of assimilating all those seemingly unrelated
facts," says Greg Page, Cargill's chief executive, in a rare interview,
"it provides us an opportunity to make money...without necessarily
having to make directional trades, i.e., outguess the weather, outguess
individual governments."
CEOs  Cargill  business_development  market_intelligence  scuttlebutt  insider_information  information  information_flows  commodities  grains  farming  agriculture 
january 2009 by jerryking

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