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jerryking : instability   26

Why the electoral surprises keep on rolling in
June 16, 2017 | Financial Times | Gillian Tett.

...."I offer up the acronym “FUCU” — not simply because this summarises what many voters think about their leaders (with apologies to anyone who is offended), but because the letters F, U, C and U point to four important trends."

The first letter, “F”, stands for “Fragmentation”. Modern voters are deeply fragmented and polarised in a social, economic and political sense....But what is fascinating about the 21st century is that while our digital technologies create the illusion that humans are hyper-connected, in fact they divide us in subtle ways....Twitter, Facebook and other social platforms enable us to connect — but only with people we actively select.... Furthermore, since these cyber platforms supply news and information, they tend to fuel tunnel vision and polarisation, as extensive research from data scientists shows.

“U”, the acronym’s second letter, stands for “Untrusting”. ...popular trust in mainstream western institutions has crumbled. But what is more interesting is to look at who people do still actively trust.

‘While our digital platforms create the illusion that humans are hyper-connected, in fact they divide us in subtle ways’....A survey conducted by the public relations firm Edelman, for example, shows that public trust in tech companies has stayed sky-high in recent years. And while trust in leaders and “experts” has fallen, it remains high for our peer groups, suggesting that trust is moving from a vertical axis to a horizontal one. So while only 37 per cent of people trust chief executive officers, 53 per cent trust employees; and while only 29 per cent trust government officials, 60 per cent trust “a person like me”.....The third letter in the acronym stands for “Customisation”. This trend is not widely discussed, but it is crucial. As digital technologies have taken hold in recent years, consumers have started to see it as a God-given right that they should be able to organise the world around their personal needs and views, instead of quietly accepting pre-packaged offerings..... these three trends produce an environment that creates an environment that is the last part of the acronym: “Unstable”. A world with a FUCU culture is a place of political cyber flash mobs, in which passion suddenly explodes around a single issue or person, then dies away. It is a place where it is hard to have a sustained conversation about political trade-offs, and where voters and politicians jump across traditional boundaries with dizzying speed, defying labels as they go.
Gillian_Tett  elections  surprises  fragmentation  customization  instability  unpredictability  trustworthiness 
august 2017 by jerryking
The Economy Needs Amazons, but It Mostly Has GEs
the country as a whole badly needs some rules-defying risk-taking. For business, that means a bit more Amazon in the boardroom and a bit less GE....The purchase of Whole Foods by Amazon introduced a level of volatility and turmoil (at least singularly to the retail sector) which had been absent from the market for a long time....The rest of the market remained placid. And months of historically low volatility has begun to look like dangerous complacency....... another, potentially more troubling explanation: stagnation. Muted markets may be an inevitable product of steady, sluggish growth, low and predictable interest rates, declining business startups and failures, and decreased competition. In other words, the problem is, there aren’t enough Amazons disrupting the stock market and the economy.....Jeffrey Bezos founded Amazon in 1994, he has prioritized expansion and innovation ahead of profit. In its early years, free cash flow—cash from operations minus CAPEX—hovered around zero. Mr. Bezos approaches new products like a VC. Many will flop (like the Fire smartphone), but some will be home runs (e.g. AWS). Amazon launched Prime, which offers free delivery in exchange for an annual fee, in 2005. John Blackledge, notes Amazon has repeatedly innovated in ways that make Prime even more valuable to subscribers.......Amazon is now profitable, yet cash retention remains secondary to building great products and delighting and retaining customers.

....If Amazon is one extreme in how companies invest, General ElectricCo. is the other. It has long been fastidious about capital and cash deployment......CEO Jack Welch perfected this approach in the 1990s.. it continued under Jeffrey Immelt. Last week, Mr. Immelt said he would retire, after 16 years struggling to restore growth. In part, that reflected how financial engineering had inflated profits under Mr. Welch. Yet Mr. Immelt ’s investment decisions too often chased the conventional wisdom on Wall Street and in Washington. ...........growth is hard for any company that dominates its markets as much as GE does. GE’s size also attracts debilitating political scrutiny. ....In response to new regulations and pressure from Wall Street, Mr. Immelt largely dismantled the business...........Investors still want GE to return cash to shareholders, and it has obliged,.....while good for shareholders in the short run, this is no recipe for growth in the long run. GE’s cash flow is shrinking despite the company’s focus on preserving it, while Amazon’s is growing despite that company’s readiness to spend it.......North American boardrooms desparately needs some rules-defying risk-taking. For business, that means a bit more Amazon in the boardroom and a bit less GE

[ See John Authers article which references Vix]

The "Minsky Moment" occurs when investors realize that they have paid far too much for the credits that have bought, no buyers can be found, and the system collapses. Aka Wile E. Coyote running-off-a-cliff....The greatest dangers to us are not from things we perceive to be high-risk, because we generally treat them carefully. Trouble arises from that which we perceive to be low-risk.
digital_economy  Amazon  GE  Amazon_Prime  risk-taking  volatility  Greg_Ip  stagnation  cash_flows  long-term  growth  start_ups  complacency  instability  conventional_wisdom  Jeffrey_Immelt  Jack_Welch  conglomerates  delighting_customers  capital_allocation  Jeff_Bezos  financial_engineering  rule_breaking 
june 2017 by jerryking
Unnatural calm sparks visions of a 'Minsky Moment'
31 December/1 January 2017 | Financial Times | John Authers.

Argues that it is bad news that volatility on financial markets has dropped to an all-time low as measured on the CBOE's Vix index. Economist Hyman Minsky postulated that capitalist financial systems were inherently unstable, and that stability begat instability. As markets grow calmer and bankers more confident, lending steadily rises until it is out of control. The "Minsky Moment" occurs when investors realize that they have paid far too much for the credits that have bought, no buyers can be found, and the system collapses. Aka Wile E. Coyote running-off-a-cliff....The greatest dangers to us are not from things we perceive to be high-risk, because we generally treat them carefully. Trouble arises from that which we perceive to be low-risk.
instability  Vix  indices  volatility  economists  financial_system  risk-assessment  warning_signs  complacency  dangers  high-risk  low-risk  fear  bad_news 
january 2017 by jerryking
We pay a high economic price for a society of exclusion - The Globe and Mail
Apr. 08, 2016 |The Globe and Mail | TODD HIRSCH.

If citizens are excluded from meaningful involvement in their economic systems, policy solutions (e.g. A tax cut here, an infrastructure program there) none of it matters.....Donald Trump has tapped into a vein of discontent that isn’t going away, whether he wins the White House or not. Those disenfranchised from mainstream politics are connecting with Mr. Trump’s childish messages.....The common thread in protest movements like Occupy Wall Street and Idle No More is that people who are excluded from the mainstream economic and political systems that run a country are disconnected and their disconnection erodes the social and political stability-- the basic building blocks on which successful economies are built. ... If people lose faith in governments, if they become so hopeless about finding a way to achieve and succeed in the system, the system itself will start to collapse.

And following that will be an outflow of capital investment, entrepreneurial energy and intellectual might. Money, businesses and educated people – if they start pouring out, the economy doesn’t stand a chance.
aboriginals  capital_flows  civil_disobedience  covenants  disenfranchisement  disadvantages  Donald_Trump  economists  exclusion  policy  social_fabric  Idle_No_More  marginalization  social_cohesion  social_collaboration  patriotism  instability  Occupy_Wall_Street  talent_flows  hopelessness  protest_movements  social_integration  Todd_Hirsch 
april 2016 by jerryking
Forcing Black Men Out of Society - NYTimes.com
Devah Pager

This astounding shortfall in black men translates into lower marriage rates, more out-of-wedlock births, a greater risk of poverty for families and, by extension, less stable communities. The missing men should be a source of concern to political leaders and policy makers everywhere.

While the 1.5 million number is startling, it actually understates the severity of the crisis that has befallen African-American men since the collapse of the manufacturing and industrial centers, which was quickly followed by the “war on drugs” and mass imprisonment, which drove up the national prison population more than sevenfold beginning in the 1970s.

In addition to the “missing,” millions more are shut out of society, or are functionally missing, because of the shrinking labor market for low-skilled workers, racial discrimination or sanctions that prevent millions who have criminal convictions from getting all kinds of jobs. At the same time, the surge in imprisonment has further stigmatized blackness itself, so that black men and boys who have never been near a jail now have to fight the presumption of criminality in many aspects of day-to-day life — in encounters with police, in schools, on the streets and on the job....William Julius Wilson wrote in his 1996 book, “When Work Disappears,” for the first time in the 20th century, most adults in many poor inner-city neighborhoods were not working.... Devah Pager wrote in her book, “Marked: Race, Crime and Finding Work in an Era of Mass Incarceration.”
understated  African-Americans  men  criminality  incarceration  racial_disparities  racial_discrimination  books  stereotypes  children  deindustrialization  war_on_drugs  stigmatization  family_breakdown  instability  unemployment  mass_incarceration  joblessness  William_Julius_Wilson  blackness  presumptions 
april 2015 by jerryking
2014’s lessons for leaders: Don’t make assumptions, do make hard decisions - The Globe and Mail
BOB RAE
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Dec. 26 2014,

Life has a way of lifting you by the lapels and giving you a good shake. Stuff happens, and when it does, it can throw all the steady paths predicted by pundits, pollsters and economic forecasters into the trash heap....Canadians are fixated on who the winners and losers of the "where will oil prices head" game ...but we need to lift our heads a bit. Russia’s falling ruble and the debt crisis of its elites and their companies have rightly grabbed headlines. But a couple of countries, notably Nigeria and Venezuela, are now in political crisis, and their very stability is at risk in the days ahead.

One of the implications of the 2008 world economic crisis is that regional and world institutions have much less room to manoeuvre and help sort things out. it will be harder for those agencies (EU, IMF) to do as much as is required. Stability doesn’t come cheap....a healthy dose of reality and skepticism is always a good idea. In a useful piece of advice, Rudyard Kipling reminded us that triumph and disaster are both imposters. People draw too many conclusions from current trends. They fail to understand that those trends can change. And that above all, they forget that events can get in the way....One clear lesson is for leaders everywhere to learn the importance of listening and engagement. The path to resolution of even the thorniest of problems...involves less rhetoric and bluster and a greater capacity to understand underlying interests and grievances. ... Engagement should never mean appeasement.
Bob_Rae  pundits  decision_making  leaders  unintended_consequences  predictions  WWI  humility  Toronto  traffic_congestion  crisis  instability  listening  engagement  unpredictability  Rudyard_Kipling  petro-politics  imposters  short-sightedness  amnesia_bias  interests  grievances  appeasement  hard_choices 
december 2014 by jerryking
Are we witnessing a comeback of the Stars and Stripes? - The Globe and Mail
JOHN STACKHOUSE
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Sep. 26 2014

America’s retreat was the central question. Had the superpower become a super-bystander? Or had the President just lost interest, energy and credibility to do more than moralize?...Mr. Obama has drawn instead on what he calls “progressive pragmatism,” which his aides claim is his nature, relying on an informal network of networks, ad hoc groups of nations taking on the challenges of the day. Some of them champion liberal values. Some are partners of convenience. Exhibit A: the coalition of willing Arab states in this week’s air strikes. Exhibit B: the network of health agencies and charities operating with U.S. support in ebola-stricken West Africa....On the grander issues of his age – climate change, cyber-security, the financial imbalance between America and Asia – Mr. Obama will need ad hoc networks like never before. The 2008 financial crisis was mitigated by a small group of central bankers, commercial bankers, regulators and finance ministers, supported but not directed by the United States. A president who is not renowned for building private-sector trust, or the loyalty of other nations, may be challenged to do that again. He also needs what America has lacked of late – for its allies to do more. Canada’s approach to carbon emissions is the sort of passive resistance the U.S. has encountered from India on trade, Mexico on immigration and Turkey on Syria. Under Mr. Obama, everyone has loved to complain about Washington, but few have been willing to shoulder their share of the costs.

Skeptics believe this is no longer possible – the world has too many strong voices, too many competing interests, too much of what physicists call entropy, the thermodynamic condition that degenerates order into chaos.
America_in_Decline?  bouncing_back  U.S.foreign_policy  multipolarity  Obama  John_Stackhouse  G20  UN  NATO  Iran  Ukraine  geopolitics  complexity  networks  interconnections  instability  superpowers  indispensable  disequilibriums  ad_hoc  nobystanders  entropy  imbalances 
september 2014 by jerryking
The Heat Is On for Farmers - WSJ.com
Nov. 20, 2013 | WSJ | By Neena Rai.

Ongoing extreme weather shocks are threatening global food security: Agricultural harvests are now more prone to drastic variations in size, making food prices increasingly volatile...The sharp increase in 2013 cereal production is due to a rebound in the U.S. corn crop and record wheat harvests in countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States. World rice production in 2013 is also expected to grow.

Global cereal stocks are thus anticipated to increase 13% this year to 564 million metric tons. Wheat and rice stocks are projected to rise, by 7% and 3% respectively, said the FAO...."In the last decade, food prices have been highly erratic and we have never seen such instability before," says Bruce Campbell, director of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security. "There are a number of causes, but an important one relates to the weather, where drought or heat hits a major food-producing region of the world. "I think the extremes we have seen in the last few years are here to stay," he warns.... Raju Agarwal, executive director of OneProsper International, an Ottawa-based charity, which distributes drip-irrigation kits to Indian farmers.....While boosting crop production and improving access to food are key to ensuring global food security, in developed nations a more efficient use of available food could also help to feed the hungry. Even small, easy acts by consumers and retailers could dramatically cut the 1.3 billion metric tons of food wasted each year world-wide, the U.N. has said. It claims approximately one-third of all food produced, worth around $1 trillion, is wasted or lost in the food production process.
farming  agriculture  climate_change  grains  cereals  weather  volatility  instability  pricing 
november 2013 by jerryking
An Elizabethan Cyberwar - NYTimes.com
May 31, 2013 | NYT | By JORDAN CHANDLER HIRSCH and SAM ADELSBERG.

Instead of trying to beat back the New World instability of the Internet with an old playbook, American officials should embrace it. With the conflict placed in its proper perspective, policy makers could ratchet down the rhetoric and experiment with a new range of responses that go beyond condemnation but stop short of all-out cyberwar — giving them the room to maneuver without approaching cyberconflict as a path to Defcon 1.

In these legally uncharted waters, only Elizabethan guile, not cold war brinkmanship, will steer Washington through the storm.
cunning  cyber_warfare  China  China_rising  U.S.  security_&_intelligence  guile  lessons_learned  contextual  Elizabethan  cyber_security  instability  resilience  perspectives  tools  frenemies  espionage  risk-mitigation  policy_tools  cyberweapons  U.S.-China_relations  policymakers  policymaking  playbooks 
june 2013 by jerryking
Managing Risk In the 21st Century
February 7, 2000 | Fortune | By Thomas A. Stewart.

Take risk management, a responsibility of the treasury function. Most risk managers haven't begun to cope with the real threats 21st-century companies face. Like the drunk in the old joke who looks for his lost keys under the streetlamp because the light is better there, risk management is dealing with visible classes of risk while greater, unmanaged dangers accumulate in the dark.

Risk--let's get this straight upfront--is good. The point of risk management isn't to eliminate it; that would eliminate reward. The point is to manage it--that is, to choose where to place bets, where to hedge bets, and where to avoid betting altogether. Though most risk-management tools--insurance, hedging, diversification, etc.--have to do with reducing loss, the goal is to maximize the gains from the risks you take (alpha? McDerment?)

So where should we look for these new risks?

--Your reputation or brand. When a bad batch of carbon dioxide in Coca-Cola sickened some Belgian children last summer, Coke's European operating income fell about $205 million, and Coca-Cola Enterprises, the bottler, incurred $103 million in costs. What about the cost to brand equity? One highly imperfect proxy: Coke's market capitalization fell $34 billion between June 30 and Sept. 30, 1999.

--Your business model. Asset-free, knowledge-intensive competition is to entrenched business models what the Panzer was to the Maginot Line. MP3s changed the music business more fundamentally than anything since radio. E*Trade, 18 years old, forced Merrill Lynch, 180, to change its way of doing business. Yet the new guys' very nimbleness creates its own risks, which traditional risk management can't help. You can protect the hard assets of a brick-and-mortar mall. Click-and-order stores are much more exposed: Cash flow is just about all they've got.

--Your human capital. The obvious human-capital risk is flight--especially in a tight labor market--but it's only part of a larger, subtler problem. When the CEO intones, "People are our most important asset," he's wrong, even if he's sincere. People are your most important investors. Your stock of human capital matters less than your flow of it. Any turbulence--and is there anything but turbulence these days?--can disrupt the flow, damaging your ability to attract human capital or people's desire to collaborate. Says Thomas Davenport, a partner at Towers Perrin: "Uncertainty is a real enemy of human capital. People rebalance their ROI by cutting back the investment."

--Your intellectual property. Many risks to intellectual property--theft, for example--can be dealt with in obvious, if sometimes onerous, ways. Here's the cutting-edge question: How do you manage risk in the process by which new intellectual property is created? How do you cope with the fact that the safer a given R&D project is, the less likely it is to be a big-money breakthrough? How do you balance the virtues of specialization against those of diversification?

--Your network. No company is an island, entire of itself; odds are your business is embedded in a network you do not control. It's not just that AOL might crash and cost you a few days' sales; your whole business may depend on tangible and intangible assets that belong to outsourcing partners, franchisees, sugar daddies, or standard-setters.
There are a couple of patterns here. First, an ever-greater part of business risk comes from sources your company can't own--people, partners, environments. Second, volatility isn't just a currency or stock market risk anymore. Labor markets, technologies, even business models oscillate at higher frequencies--their behavior more and more resembling that of financial markets.

In those patterns are hints of how to manage intellectual risks--which we'll examine next time.
risk-management  21st._century  risks  Thomas_Stewart  reputation  branding  business_models  financial_markets  talent_management  intellectual_property  networks  human_capital  turbulence  uncertainty  volatility  instability  nimbleness  labour_markets  accelerated_lifecycles  intellectual_assets  e-commerce  external_interaction  talent_flows  cash_flows  network_risk  proxies  specialization  diversification  unknowns  brand_equity  asset-light  insurance  hedging  alpha  Michael_McDerment 
june 2012 by jerryking
A New Vocabulary for Trade
Aug 4, 2005 | WSJ pg. A.12 | Jagdish Bhagwati. The flat world
metaphor is, , both inept and mistakenly alarming. The real problem in
the increasingly globalized economy is rather that most producers in
traded activities -- an expanding set because services have become
steadily more tradeable -- face intensified competition. A specific
producer here will find rival suppliers stealing up on him from
somewhere, whether Portugal, Brazil or Malaysia, indeed from sources
which may not include India and China....Historically, comparative
advantage was "thick," shielded by big buffers. This is no longer so:
not predictably from India and China, but almost certainly from
somewhere. Hence I use the metaphor: "kaleidoscopic comparative
advantage." Today, you have it; but in our state of knife-edge
equilibrium, you may lose it tomorrow and regain it the day after.
...[How quickly can Ontario's colleges pull together a new course? How
much of the content is general vs. specific? for Dianne-- pinboard search on "institutional_integrity" "legal system" ]
ProQuest  flat_world  globalization  Tom_Friedman  metaphors  India  China  comparative_advantage  impermanence  transient  kaleidoscopic  instability  accelerated_lifecycles  global_economy 
december 2010 by jerryking
The European Union rescues Greece and Portugal
May 24, 2010 | The New Yorker | by James Surowiecki. "...The
fact is, this kind of volatility isn’t going away, because we now live
in an environment dominated by what economists call “political risk”—the
uncertainty that businesses face as a result of government actions. Of
course, government actions always affect the economy, but usually in an
undramatic way: an interest-rate cut here, a new regulation there. The
economic downturn and the debt crisis have given us instead a world
where governments are among the most important players in
markets—injecting money into economies on a colossal scale and routinely
propping up, or even nationalizing, troubled companies."
Angela_Merkel  bailouts  central_banks  debt_crisis  economic_downturn  EU  Germany  geopolitical-risk  Greece  IMF  instability  James_Surowiecki  political_risk  Portugal  sovereign-risk  uncertainty  volatility 
may 2010 by jerryking
Technology Is Central To CIA's Strategic Plan - WSJ.com
APRIL 26, 2010 | Wall Street Journal | By SIOBHAN GORMAN.
The CIA announced a five-year strategic plan that would invest heavily
in new technologies to combat non-traditional threats like cyber attacks
from overseas and gain better intelligence on rogue states like Iran.
... Mr. Panetta released his five-year plan in remarks to agency
employees. "We govern either by leadership or by crisis," he said.
"That's why we're taking a hard look at future challenges, and what we
want our agency to look like five years from now."
threats  adaptability  instability  unpredictability  rogue_actors  security_&_intelligence  CIA  strategic_planning  cyber_warfare  asymmetrical  Iran  Africa  Pakistan  innovation  Pentagon  forward_looking  leadership  strategic_thinking  decentralization  non-traditional  technology  Leon_Panetta 
may 2010 by jerryking
The Culture of Today’s Changing World
May/June 2009 | Departures | By Joshua Cooper Ramo. From
Hezbollah in Beirut to a investment fund in Beijing, we’re living in an
age of unthinkable change and surprise. "In a world of constant newness
in science, technology, and media, there’s no reason to think politics
and economics should be immune to change any more than the way we search
for information is. If we truly want to develop a sense of the unstable
geography at this moment and master the suddenly essential language of
surprise and hope and danger, our only chance is to get out of the house
(or the bunker) and start looking for signs of the new. Travel,
tourism, and culture instantly become more than hobbies or distractions;
they are transformed into our best hope of understanding. Because while
we are now indisputably living in the age of the unthinkable, it
doesn’t mean we’re living in the age of the unexplainable."
Joshua_Cooper_Ramo  globalization  dangers  politicaleconomy  instability  unpredictability  travel  tourism  culture  surprises  constant_change  sense-making  unthinkable 
january 2010 by jerryking
Fire Yourself -- Then Come Back and Act Like a New Boss Would
OCTOBER 9, 2006 | Wall Street Journal | by CAROL HYMOWITZ.
..."companies must repeatedly reinvent themselves to stay
strong...companies can't survive as they once did by churning out the
same products or services in the same way year after year. The most
successful companies don't wait until they're in trouble or are
overtaken by rivals to make changes. The trick is to analyze portfolios
constantly, to move quickly to shed weak businesses and to gamble on new
opportunities without making the company unstable...."Windows of
opportunity open and close so quickly today, you can't just mull
decisions right in front of you. You have to look around the corner and
figure out where you need to go,...learn how to change directions fast.
...
IBM  Intel  Andy_Grove  reinvention  opportunities  nimbleness  speed  agility  windows_of_opportunity  accelerated_lifecycles  portfolios  pre-emption  kill_rates  portfolio_management  unstable  instability  assessments_&_evaluations  Carol_Hymowitz 
december 2009 by jerryking
No Risk, No Reward
December 19, 2007 | Fast Company | by Keith H. Hammonds.
"Wealth is created during periods of uncertainty," Wind says. "You can
go back to Frank Knight,* who said in 1921 that the only risk that leads
to profit is unique uncertainty. Making money depends on identifying
opportunities in a turbulent marketplace."Frank H. Knight was cochair of
the department of economics at the University of Chicago from the 1920s
to the late 1940s. In his classic book published in 1921, Risk,
Uncertainty and Profit, he distinguished between risk and uncertainty.
Risk, he argued, was a randomness -- as in a game of roulette -- whose
probability could be determined. Uncertainty implied unknown and perhaps
unknowable probabilities. Will human cloning be commonplace in a
generation? That's an uncertainty. TRL Stacks 330.1 K54.11 Stacks
Retrieval Stacks Request Reference S-MR In Library
books  creativity  disequilibriums  innovation  instability  opportunistic  probabilities  quotes  randomness  risks  turbulence  uncertainty  unknowables  unknowns  weather  wealth_creation 
december 2009 by jerryking
Talking to...Joshua C. Ramo
POSTED ON: APRIL 14, 2009 | TORO MAGAZINE | POSTED BY:
SALVATORE DIFALCO. "...Get over this idea that we can deter or regulate
threats out of existence. Most of the big threats we can’t deter. Our
efforts to deter terrorism haven’t been all that effective. Some of
those guys are all too happy to die. The challenge is for us to build a
society that accepts these shocks as part of the system."
Joshua_Cooper_Ramo  uncertainty  instability  threats  interviews  unpredictability  deterrence  complexity  Kissinger_Associates  resilience 
september 2009 by jerryking
Financial daisy chains can cause markets to seize up
08/09/07 G&M by Avner Mandelman

the problem here is that at a certain point, the sum total of the legal-derivative demands in the chain, can surpass the physical/financial ability of the underlying institutions' balance sheets. And when the financial temperature rises everywhere because of some event, the system can seize up.

Are we at that point? I don't know, nor does anyone. Even Warren Buffett said that he doesn't. But, I can hear CFAs hollering: "What's wrong with transferring risk from those unwilling to assume it, to those who do? That's insurance, isn't it?" Yes and no.

The problem is that when too much risk is transferred to the system as a whole in a daisy chain, this can make the system unstable, as several studies showed after October, 1987, when portfolio insurance and dynamic hedging made the stock-clearing system temporarily unstable and the market crashed.
Avner_Mandelman  risks  derivatives  daisy_chains  instability  compounded  market_crash 
march 2009 by jerryking
Financial daisy chains can cause markets to seize up
Sept 8 2007, 07:45 AM G&M column by Avner Mandelman, who is
the president and chief investment officer of Giraffe Capital Corp. and
the author of The Sleuth Investor.
Avner_Mandelman  derivatives  risks  daisy_chains  instability 
march 2009 by jerryking

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