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A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here’s Where You’ll See It First. - The New York Times
By Ben Casselman
July 28, 2019

Another recession will come eventually. Fortunately, economic expansions, unlike coin-flip streaks, usually provide some hints about when they are nearing their end — if you know where to look. Below is a guide to some of the indicators that have historically done the best job of sounding the alarm.

Indicator 1: The Unemployment Rate
What to watch for: Rapid increases, even from a low level.
What it’s saying: All clear.

Indicator 2: The Yield Curve
What to watch for: Interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds falling below those on three-month bonds. (It has already happened.)
What it’s saying: Storm warning.

Indicator 3: The ISM Manufacturing Index
What to watch for: The index falling below about 45 for an extended period.
What it's saying: Mostly cloudy.

Indicator 4: Consumer Sentiment
What to watch for: Declines of 15 percent or more over a year.
What it's saying: Partly cloudy.

Indicator 5: Choose Your Favorite

* Temporary staffing levels: Temp workers are, by definition, flexible — companies hire them when they need help quickly and get rid of them when demand dries up. That makes them a good measure of business sentiment.
* The quits rate: When workers are confident in the economy, they are more likely to quit voluntarily.
* Residential building permits: The housing market has frequently led the economy both into and out of recessions. That has made building permits — which are generally issued several weeks before construction begins — one of the best historical indicators of economic activity.
* Auto sales: After houses, cars are the most expensive thing most families buy.
consumer_confidence  economics  forecasting  indices  interim  lagging_indicators  leading_indicators  manufacturers  recessions  unemployment  warning_signs  yield_curve 
august 2019 by jerryking
Executive search firm rebuilds after staff defections - The Globe and Mail
RICHARD BLACKWELL

The Globe and Mail

Published Thursday, Jan. 09 2014

The shift to specialization in the executive-search business has partly been spurred by social media, Mr. Lovas said. Using sites such as LinkedIn, it is easy for anyone to come up with a list of chief financial officers, for example, but only a recruiter with a specialization in CFOs will have the knowledge and relationships necessary to determine who is truly qualified for a position and get them to consider a job change.

Another major shift in the head-hunting business, he said, is the increasing need to find interim managers to run a client company until a permanent employee can be found.

Indeed, the “interim management” business could be a bigger business than the basic executive search business within a decade, Mr. Lovas said. “It is one of the great trends in recruiting going forward.”
executive_search  professional_service_firms  relationships  LinkedIn  CFOs  interim  executive_management  defections 
january 2014 by jerryking
Best holiday temp jobs for boomers - MarketWatch
Nov. 18, 2013, 6:01 a.m. EST
Best holiday temp jobs for boomers
Want seasonal work? Better get a move on

By Andrea Coombes
job_search  jobs  interim 
november 2013 by jerryking
How to Loosen Grip Of a Noncompete Pact After Your Breakup - WSJ.com
February 17, 1998 | WSJ | By HAL LANCASTER.

The best time to negotiate is during the courtship, "when everyone's happy and begging you to come over," Mr. Sklover says.

You might be able to shorten the duration of the agreement or the territory covered. Mr. Lasky says you can often negotiate "carve outs," or specific jobs and places for which the clause doesn't apply, should you leave the company. If you're in public relations, for example, maybe they'll allow you to do marketing communications, he says....IF YOUR noncompete is airtight, concentrate on spending your time after the breakup wisely. One possibility: interim employment in a related field.

That's what Mr. Nesh did after leaving the utility last October. He wouldn't disclose terms of his covenant, but said it contained time and geographical restrictions. While he waits for it to expire, he has registered with Imcor, which provides companies with temporary executives. He still must avoid direct competition, but if he can get an assignment or two, it will keep him close to the industry, he says.

If you've decided to quit, the focus shifts to managing your departure so that your former employers are less likely to call out the attack dogs.

"Take nothing with you other than the picture of the wife, kids and dog," Mr. Lasky advises. "Don't take the Rolodex or files. Don't come into the office at hours when no one else is there. Even if it's innocent, it will be seen as an attempt to steal business."

Also, transfer your responsibilities to others. "Don't leave things in the lurch," he says.
Hal_Lancaster  noncompete_agreements  exits  negotiations  interim  Second_Acts 
december 2012 by jerryking
Temporary Workers and the 21st Century Economy - WSJ.com
NOVEMBER 30, 2009 | Wall Street Journal | by JODY GREENSTONE
MILLER. Today, demand for high-end temporary business talent is not
focused on cost-cutting projects, as some might suspect. Instead, firms
use temporary executives to drive innovation. In uncertain times, firms
are simply more comfortable with deploying talent on a flexible basis.

Temporary work also boosts economic efficiency because not all executive
roles require permanent staff. For example, one pharmaceutical company
client took on a temporary marketing executive to help launch a new
drug. The old way of doing this was to make a new permanent hire (or a
small team) who would have been under-utilized after the launch. The
availability of temporary staff who can get the job done quickly means
that firms can rethink how work is organized.
interim  workforce_planning  executive_management  on-demand  freelancing  21st._century  contingent_workers  gig_economy 
january 2010 by jerryking
PART-TIME EXECUTIVE, FULL-TIME VALUE
June-July 2007 | Canadian Treasurer | by Ken Goodwin and Jane
Matthews. Small and mid-market firms can turn to seasoned CFOs as
interim executives
executive_management  leadership  Outsourcing  staffing  interim  filetype:pdf  media:document  CFOs 
may 2009 by jerryking
Hired guns: the 'new rock stars'
Oct 18, 2006 | The Globe and Mail. Toronto, Ont. | article appeared on . pg. C.3 and was written Wallace Immen.
management  Wallace_Immen  interim 
march 2009 by jerryking
Watershed Interim Management
Taken from a Financial Time newspaper
management  interim 
march 2009 by jerryking

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