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jerryking : investment_research   19

How investment analysts became data miners | Financial Times
Robin Wigglesworth 5 HOURS AGO
Distribution is increasingly focused on pulling readers in rather than pushing content out. Rather than emailing research and praying it gets opened, many banks have built up personalisable research portals. More content is now made public. The websites of most big investment banks now look more like those of think-tanks.....“The evolution of capital markets has put investment research departments in a tricky position,” ..... “The industry has changed dramatically in how it’s done and distributed. But what has not changed is the fundamental job: coming up with great ideas.”
alternative_data  asset_management  charts  data  data-driven  data_scientists  idea_generation  index_funds  investment_research  money_management  passive_investing  sell_side  technology  UBS  unbundling 
12 weeks ago by jerryking
13D / Our Approach
We are "Foxhogs".
The story of the fox and the hedgehog has been told in many forms through the ages, but the essence of it is always the same. The fox evades his attackers in a variety of inventive but exhausting ways, while the hedgehog adopts one tried and trusted strategy—hunkering down and letting its spikes do the work.

In the words of Greek poet Archilochus: “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” Discussions of the hedgehog and the fox often come down to whether it’s better to be one or the other. But in a world that rewards expertise and the groundbreaking insights that come from the clash of domains, we need to be both. 13D is both.
foxes  hedgehogs  investment_research  investors 
august 2019 by jerryking
Howard Marks, the ultimate bargain hunter
October 17, 2018 | Financial Times | Javier Espinoza.

Howard Marks : “I have a high degree of creativity,” he says. "In order to outdo others you have to think differently from others. If you don’t, how can you expect to have superior results?” His new book is Mastering the Market Cycle.

Mr Marks is the founder of Oaktree Capital Management. Based in Los Angeles, it is one of the world’s most prominent value investors. He makes money by finding situations where he can buy low, especially distressed assets, then sell high.

Today, market conditions mean Mr Marks faces as strong a challenge as ever: trying to sniff out bargains when valuations are steep, debt is cheap and competition fierce.

In 2015 Oaktree raised about $12bn for its distressed-debt fund. It was the second-largest amount in its history......The veteran financier regards delaying gratification as key to success. Like Warren Buffett, he believes waiting for the right investments is an important part of the process.

He often cites Hyman Minsky, the US economist famous for his work on bubbles and crashes....as Minsky would say, ‘there are always cycles’.”

“There are up-cycles with too much enthusiasm, too little discipline and too little risk aversion," he says. "And there are down-cycles when the economy does less well, corporations do less well, security prices fall and there is too much risk aversion, too much fear.”

“A quote said to have been uttered by Mark Twain is: ‘History does not repeat but it does rhyme’. The point is that the patterns of cycles do repeat and the details – the amplitude, the timing, the duration, the speed and the reasons – are different from cycle to cycle but the themes that underlie the causes of cycles are similar from one to the next.”

 
bargain_hunting  books  boom-to-bust  creativity  distressed_debt  economic_cycles  financiers  founders  Howard_Marks  investors  Mark_Twain  moguls  money_management  investment_research  Oaktree  patterns  pattern_recognition  quotes  think_differently  value_investing/investors 
october 2018 by jerryking
Big Investors Don’t Want Wall Street Analysts Snooping on Them - WSJ
June 14, 2018 | WSJ | By Telis Demos

the research shops are finding ways to make up the lost revenue, turning to readership data. They do say that information is power, and in this case I guess the banks have the power again.
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I think the WSJ is conflating two very different issues. The privacy concerns apply on ethical (possibly criminal) grounds rather than moral ones, in the example given of hedge funds asking a broker to provide aggregated readership data. It's very hard to imagine a responsible research provider doing this. The other piece - the tracking of utilization of research product is exactly what brokers need to do to ensure they are being paid appropriately for the level of service a client is receiving. MiFID 2 has and will continue to put pressure on how much research clients consume, and to precisely account for how much they pay for it. Transparency is a two-way street. A 90-day embargo on the readership data is a simple solution, as quarterly/bi-annual reviews should suffice to true-up the bank/client ledger.

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behavioural_data  investment_research  institutional_investors  reading  research_analysts  snooping  traders  Wall_Street  buy_side  informational_advantages  privacy  transparency 
june 2018 by jerryking
Winton Capital’s David Harding on making millions through maths
NOVEMBER 25, 2016 | Financial Times | by Clive Cookson.

Harding’s career is founded on the relentless pursuit of mathematical and scientific methods to predict movements in markets. This is a never-ending process because predictive tools lose their power as markets change; new ones are always needed. “We have 450 people in the company, of whom 250 are involved in research, data collection or technology,” he says. That is equivalent to a medium-sized university physics department....Harding's approach to making money is to exploit failures in the efficient market theory...the problem with the EMT is that “It treats economics like a physical science when, in fact, it is a human or social science. Humans are prone to unpredictable behaviour, to overreaction or slumbering inaction, to mania and panic.”...The Winton investment system is based instead on “the belief that scientific methods provide a good means of extracting meaning from noisy market data. We don’t make assumptions about how markets should work, rather we use advanced statistical techniques to seek patterns in huge data sets and base all our investment strategies on the analysis of empirical evidence...Harding emphasises the breadth and volume of investments involved, covering bonds, currencies, commodities, market indices and individual equities. The aim is to exploit a large number of weak predictive signals, he says: “We don’t expect to find any strong relationships between data and the price of the market. That may sound counter-intuitive but if there are strong relationships, someone else is going to be exploiting those. Weak relationships are where we have a competitive advantage.” Weather strategies are one feature of Winton research, including analysis of cloud cover and soil moisture levels to predict the prices of agricultural commodities. Other important indicators, for which maths can uncover value not fully reflected in market prices, include seasonal factors and inventory levels across supply chains....When I ask Harding about the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence to guide investment decisions, he bristles slightly. “There is a sudden upsurge of excitement about AI,” he says, “but we have used techniques that would be described as machine learning for at least 30 years.”

Essentially, he says, quantitative investing, self-driving cars and speech recognition are all applications of “information engineering”....he heads off to a lecture by German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer, who runs the Harding Centre for Risk Literacy in Berlin
communicating_risks  mathematics  hedge_funds  investment_research  financiers  Winton_Capital  physics  Renaissance_Technologies  James_Simons  moguls  quantitative  panics  overreaction  massive_data_sets  philanthropy  machine_learning  signals  human_factor  weak_links  JumpMath 
november 2016 by jerryking
Hedge Funds’ Idea Man - WSJ
By JULIET CHUNG
Jan. 4, 2016

The 54-year-old Brazilian immigrant is part of a larger ecosystem of consultants who sell their investment beliefs to hedge funds. The funds, hungry for returns or cheap hedges for their portfolios, get fresh ideas that comprise or inform their wagers. The consultants, in exchange, often expect to share in gains tied to their ideas, they and their clients said.....The ideas don’t always result in profits. ...Such arrangements make some veteran investors in hedge funds uneasy.

“If your manager’s renting a lot of ideas, you have to question the value-add they bring to the partnership,” said Chuck Bryceland of New York-based Bessemer Trust, which advises wealthy families and individuals on investments, including in hedge funds. “We want our people generating primary trade ideas and doing the primary work themselves.”
investment_advice  investment_research  ideas  Wall_Street  money_management  private_banking  hedge_funds  shareholder_activism  traders  exclusivity  idea_generation  value_added  financial_advisors  high_net_worth  Bessemer  Bessemer_Trust 
january 2016 by jerryking
Traders Seek an Edge With High-Tech Snooping - WSJ.com
Dec. 18, 2013 | WSJ | By Michael Rothfeld and Scott Patterson.

A growing industry uses surveillance and data-crunching technology to supply traders with nonpublic information.

Genscape's clients include banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG, hedge funds including Citadel LLC and large energy-trading outfits such as Trafigura Beheer BV. Surveillance and analysis of the oil, electricity and natural-gas sectors can run Genscape clients more than $300,000 a year.
surveillance  data_driven  slight_edge  traders  hedge_funds  sleuthing  Genscape  sensors  commodities  corporate_espionage  competitive_intelligence  scuttlebutt  due_diligence  market_research  exclusivity  investment_research  research_methods  LBMA  nonpublic  primary_field_research  banks  Citadel  oil_industry  natural_gas  snooping  alternative_data  informational_advantages  imagery  satellites  infrared  electric_power 
december 2013 by jerryking
Prudential Research Model May Have Been a Dinosaur
June 8, 2007 | WSJ | Scott Patterson.

The decision by Prudential Financial PRU +0.70% to close its stock-research arm doesn't mean research is doomed, but it does signal an important shift. Deep-pocketed investors such as pension funds and hedge funds are hungry for exclusive, specialized research that can give them an edge over competition.

Experts say Prudential's research had become too widely distributed to draw enough interest, or dollars.

"The notion of widespread dissemination of a recommendation, that model is 40 years old," said Mike Thompson, director of research at Thomson Financial. "If you talk to the hedge funds, what they want are ideas that are actionable that not everyone gets."

The trend has given rise to independent, specialized research outfits. There are 63 independent research firms today, up from 14 in 2000, according to Thomson Financial.
equity_research  Wall_Street  investment_research  hedge_funds  pension_funds  exclusivity  nonpublic  slight_edge  proprietary  hard_to_find  novelty  interestingness  actionable_information 
february 2013 by jerryking
Mike Mayo's Exile on Wall Street
NOVEMBER 5, 2011 | WSJ |By MIKE MAYO.
Why Wall Street Can't Handle the Truth
Longtime bank analyst Mike Mayo tells the inside story of why it's so hard to yell 'sell' in a crowded room—and lays out how Wall Street needs to change to avoid the next financial collapse.
investment_banking  Wall_Street  banking  excerpts  investment_banking_research  investment_research 
november 2011 by jerryking
Venture Capital Investors, Lesson Learned, Do More Homework - NYTimes.com
By CLAIRE CAIN MILLER
August 9, 2011

the market for investing in tech start-ups remains white-hot. Still,
some investors are proceeding with extreme caution.

Saying they learned their lesson in the dot-com boom and bust, and the
2008 recession, the institutional investors — pension funds, university
endowments and foundations — that put money in venture capital funds are
more selectively choosing the firms in which they invest, doing
exhaustive research before handing over money, and in some cases driving
hard bargains for more favorable management fees and shares of profits.
cautionary_tales  venture_capital  vc  limited_partnerships  due_diligence  investment_research  Claire_Cain_Miller  institutional_investors  selectivity  pension_funds  endowments  foundations  lessons_learned  bubbles  economic_downturn 
august 2011 by jerryking
Fooling some of the people all of the time : a long short story
Fooling some of the people all of the time : a long short story
by Einhorn, David. Year/Format: 2008, 332.62097 EIN
In 2002, Einhorn spoke publicly about Allied Capital--a leader in the
private finance industry--presenting it as an excellent short
opportunity. Einhorn describes the incredible events that followed his
speech and how Allied and the investment community attacked him to
protect the company--and its stock price. Informative and intriguing,
"Fooling Some of the People All of the Time" details how the current
environment on Wall Street--and the world of hedge funds in particular--
not only allows for such behavior, but how it protects the companies
and attacks those who attempt to uncover them.
David_Einhorn  short_selling  TPL  books  investing  investment_advice  investment_research  Wall_Street  hedge_funds  stockmarkets 
march 2011 by jerryking
Writing a Credible Investment Thesis
11/15/2004 | HBS Working Knowledge | by David Harding and
Sam Rovit
Many companies are "terrifyingly unclear" to themselves and investors about why they are making an acquisition, according to the authors of a new book, Mastering the Merger. Support comes when you spell it out.

Tough truths, on the other hand, are things like when and where you invest and under what circumstances.
HBS  HBR  mergers_&_acquisitions  M&A  private_equity  investment_research  writing  themes  thesis  value_creation  value_propositions  investment_thesis  Bain  tough-mindedness 
december 2010 by jerryking
How to analyze a company's managers - The Globe and Mail
Apr. 23, 2010 | Globe & Mail | by Avner Mandelman. Is
there a method for analyzing people's job suitability?

The one used by many HR departments is the Myers-Briggs methodology. It
focuses on four main characteristics: extroversion/introversion (E/I),
fast/slow decision making (J/P), using intuition versus using facts
(N/S), and reacting by thinking versus by feeling (T/F). The combination
of these four categories yields 16 types, suited to different jobs.
Avner_Mandelman  Myers-Briggs  investment_research  howto 
april 2010 by jerryking
Contrary Rules for Business Success
Jun. 24, 2009 | The Globe & Mail | by Harvey Schachter.
Reviews The Moneymakers, by Anne-Marie Fink, Crown Business, 310
pages, $32. Fink gets paid to separate the wheat from the chaff in the
corporate world or, to put it in business terms, separate the
moneymakers from the destroyers of shareholder value. Fink is an equity
analyst with J.P. Morgan Asset Management, she has billions of dollars
resting on her assessment of companies and their management.
equity_research  investment_research  books  rules_of_the_game  book_reviews  Harvey_Schachter  slight_edge  signals  noise  value_creation  value_destruction  shareholder_value  JPMorgan_Chase 
february 2010 by jerryking
Finding exclusive information is tough, but rewarding
May 28, 2005 | Globe & Mail | by AVNER MANDELMAN. Superior
investment information must be triple-good: It must be true, important
and exclusive. "We called or met 13 HTE clients, which took two months,
and a dozen low- and mid-level employees, which took another month.
Because the latter live paycheque to paycheque, they take pains to learn
how their company is really doing. What we learned was crucial -- few
things are more important than clients' opinions. And it was exclusive,
no one else talked to the workers and clients."
exclusivity  sleuthing  due_diligence  Avner_Mandelman  investment_research  inequality_of_information  scuttlebutt  primary_field_research  personal_knowledge  personal_connections  personal_meetings  personal_relationships 
february 2010 by jerryking
Follow successful investment managers, you'll learn from them
August 13, 2005 | Globe & Mail ROB pg B7 | by Ira Gluskin.
"The first question that you should ask is why does anyone in the
investment industry want to be interviewed or quoted?...A tip to
facilitate your newspaper reading productivity... The most important
articles to read are by, or about successful investment managers.
Articles by or about investment executives and corporate executives come
next. Research analysts should be read afterwards. The last experts to
rely on are economists, with one notable exception. Jeffrey Rubin of
CIBC.".......Avoid all the articles interviewing Mr. and Mrs. Average Canadian who want to share their investment expertise with us. Certainly there are many astute investors out there in the real world, but the real world is full of experts on sports, movies and politics as well. However, the editors of these sections do not choose to air these amateur views like they do in the financial section. I repeat that I recognize that there are brilliant investors out there, but they don't have the discipline of achieving reported performance numbers like myself. This lack of discipline prevents the reader from knowing whether they are dealing with lucky or smart people.
Ira_Gluskin  investment_advice  in_the_real_world  Jeffrey_Rubin  Gluskin_Sheff  money_management  wealth_management  high_net_worth  Toronto  Bay_Street  reading  productivity  howto  economists  investment_research  equity_research  research_analysts  worthiness  discernment  smart_people  luck  investors  self-discipline 
october 2009 by jerryking

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