recentpopularlog in

jerryking : lagging_indicators   3

A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here’s Where You’ll See It First. - The New York Times
By Ben Casselman
July 28, 2019

Another recession will come eventually. Fortunately, economic expansions, unlike coin-flip streaks, usually provide some hints about when they are nearing their end — if you know where to look. Below is a guide to some of the indicators that have historically done the best job of sounding the alarm.

Indicator 1: The Unemployment Rate
What to watch for: Rapid increases, even from a low level.
What it’s saying: All clear.

Indicator 2: The Yield Curve
What to watch for: Interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds falling below those on three-month bonds. (It has already happened.)
What it’s saying: Storm warning.

Indicator 3: The ISM Manufacturing Index
What to watch for: The index falling below about 45 for an extended period.
What it's saying: Mostly cloudy.

Indicator 4: Consumer Sentiment
What to watch for: Declines of 15 percent or more over a year.
What it's saying: Partly cloudy.

Indicator 5: Choose Your Favorite

* Temporary staffing levels: Temp workers are, by definition, flexible — companies hire them when they need help quickly and get rid of them when demand dries up. That makes them a good measure of business sentiment.
* The quits rate: When workers are confident in the economy, they are more likely to quit voluntarily.
* Residential building permits: The housing market has frequently led the economy both into and out of recessions. That has made building permits — which are generally issued several weeks before construction begins — one of the best historical indicators of economic activity.
* Auto sales: After houses, cars are the most expensive thing most families buy.
consumer_confidence  economics  forecasting  indices  interim  lagging_indicators  leading_indicators  manufacturers  recessions  unemployment  warning_signs  yield_curve 
august 2019 by jerryking
Growth Hacker is the new VP Marketing | @andrewchen
The rise of the Growth Hacker
The new job title of “Growth Hacker” is integrating itself into Silicon Valley’s culture, emphasizing that coding and technical chops are now an essential part of being a great marketer. Growth hackers are a hybrid of marketer and coder, one who looks at the traditional question of “How do I get customers for my product?” and answers with A/B tests, landing pages, viral factor, email deliverability, and Open Graph. On top of this, they layer the discipline of direct marketing, with its emphasis on quantitative measurement, scenario modeling via spreadsheets, and a lot of database queries. If a startup is pre-product/market fit, growth hackers can make sure virality is embedded at the core of a product. After product/market fit, they can help run up the score on what’s already working.

This isn’t just a single role – the entire marketing team is being disrupted. Rather than a VP of Marketing with a bunch of non-technical marketers reporting to them, instead growth hackers are engineers leading teams of engineers. The process of integrating and optimizing your product to a big platform requires a blurring of lines between marketing, product, and engineering, so that they work together to make the product market itself. Projects like email deliverability, page-load times, and Facebook sign-in are no longer technical or design decisions – instead they are offensive weapons to win in the market.

The stakes are huge because of “superplatforms” giving access to 100M+ consumers
These skills are invaluable and can change the trajectory of a new product. For the first time ever, it’s possible for new products to go from zero to 10s of millions users in just a few years. Great examples include Pinterest, Zynga, Groupon, Instagram, Dropbox. New products with incredible traction emerge every week. These products, with millions of users, are built on top of new, open platforms that in turn have hundreds of millions of users – Facebook and Apple in particular. Whereas the web in 1995 consisted of a mere 16 million users on dialup, today over 2 billion people access the internet. On top of these unprecedented numbers, consumers use super-viral communication platforms that rapidly speed up the proliferation of new products – not only is the market bigger, but it moves faster too.

Before this era, the discipline of marketing relied on the only communication channels that could reach 10s of millions of people – newspaper, TV, conferences, and channels like retail stores. To talk to these communication channels, you used people – advertising agencies, PR, keynote speeches, and business development. Today, the traditional communication channels are fragmented and passe. The fastest way to spread your product is by distributing it on a platform using APIs, not MBAs. Business development is now API-centric, not people-centric.

Whereas PR and press used to be the drivers of customer acquisition, instead it’s now a lagging indicator that your Facebook integration is working. The role of the VP of Marketing, long thought to be a non-technical role, is rapidly fading and in its place, a new breed of marketer/coder hybrids have emerged.
growth  marketing  hacks  blogs  Silicon_Valley  executive_management  virality  experimentation  trial_&_error  coding  platforms  executive_search  CMOs  measurements  growth_hacking  APIs  new_products  lagging_indicators  offensive_tactics 
december 2012 by jerryking
Martin Sorrell of WPP Group thinks companies need to get spending - WSJ.com
June 29, 2012|Wall Street Journal | Interview of Martin Sorrell by Alan Murray.

MR. MURRAY: Are you a concurrent indicator? A lagging indicator?

MR. SORRELL: We lead the downturn, and we lag the upturn. So, we get the worst of both worlds. If people are worried, they cut marketing spending. If things are going to turn up, they wait until they're confirmed.

Open Your Wallets
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Why do you think companies are sitting on too much cash?

MR. SORRELL: I started WPP with one other person 27 years ago. I decided to do something entrepreneurial. I borrowed £250,000 and bought into a shell company called Wire & Plastic Products, which is what WPP stands for, and wanted to build a very significant advertising and marketing-services company.

The system doesn't encourage people to take those sort of risks. Big corporations are natural bureaucracies, in the nicest sense of the word. Inherently, the system encourages conservatism.

To get out of where we are, you have to be expansive. Our strategy is simple: new markets, new media, consumer insight and then the ugly word, horizontality, getting people to work together. The first two involve taking risk. Myanmar opens up, 66 million people in that country. Major opportunity. You have to grasp it. We've gone in there in the first two weeks, repurchased an agency we had to sell because of sanctions, and we've gone in with our research operations.

When markets open up like that, you have to embrace the opportunities. I think the system doesn't encourage you to take those risks.
cash  economic_downturn  interviews  lagging_indicators  leading_indicators  Martin_Sorrell  origin_story  risk-taking  WPP 
june 2012 by jerryking

Copy this bookmark:





to read