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How to step back and rethink your career goals
SEPTEMBER 17, 2019 | Financial Times | by Elizabeth Uviebinene.

Mobile apps: Wunderlist and Trello.
Podcasts on the “back to life” mindset: How to Fail with Elizabeth Day, Better Life Lab and Without Fail
Newsletters: The Roundup by Otegha Uwagba

Autumn now brings a sense of trepidation — it can be an unsettling time for those who are starting new opportunities and a source of anxiety for those who feel stuck in a rut while others move on......I look at autumn a little differently, seeing it as a time to reset and an opportunity to make small changes to my routine without the cynicism that is attached to new year’s resolutions...... a little refresh now can go a long way...... it’s more about making time to check in with them, to realign and reprioritize.......The first step is to check in on your long-term goals, the ones you want to achieve in a few years. Is your current trajectory aligning with those goals? If not, why not? What can you implement today to get you back on track?....write down what you’ve achieved this year and positioning it within the overall business objectives that show your individual impact......journal when it comes to both long-term and weekly career planning. Spending time writing down objectives and reflecting on how best to get there in the coming weeks and months can provide a sense of control......prioritizing is essential to maintaining a healthy work and life balance. Journal five goals for the next four months and then place them in priority order, cross off the bottom three, to leave the two most important ones. That's where to focus one's time and energy......."Find your tribe”. A sense of community is key to battling the loneliness that this time of year can bring. This could be done online by signing up to a newsletter, or via community groups and live events....Attend conferences.....use this time of year to consider making a career change, aiming for the next promotion or starting a side project, ....reflect, plot and plan on how best to get there. Sneaking small changes into our working life can make all the difference.
autumn  conferences  goals  howto  journaling  long-term  Managing_Your_Career  mindsets  mobile_applications  networking  podcasts  priorities  reflections  résumés  self-organization  sense_of_control  tribes  work_life_balance 
7 weeks ago by jerryking
Keeping Cori Gauff Healthy and Sane
July 2, 2019 | The New York Times | By Christopher Clarey.

Cori Gauff studies the map of her predecessors' pitfalls

Tennis has its latest prodigy in Cori Gauff, the 15-year-old American who upset Venus Williams, once a wonder child herself, in the first round of Wimbledon of Monday......The list [of child prodigies] is extensive, punctuated with cautionary tales. As tennis has become a more physically demanding sport, these breakout moments have been trending later.......Corey Gauff, the player’s father, longtime coach and the inspiration for his daughter’s name, has attempted to do what he can to help her chances of long-term success. One of his self-appointed tasks: studying tennis prodigies extensively......“I went through everybody I thought was relevant, that won Grand Slams and were good young,” ....“I went through every one of their situations and looked at where they were at a certain age, what they were doing. I asked a lot of questions, because I was concerned about burnout. Am I doing the right things?”....“I studied and studied to prepare myself to make sure if she was able to meet these goals that we’d be able to help the right way,” he said. “That was important. I still sit there and benchmark: ‘O.K., we’re at this point now. How is she doing physically? Is she growing? This is what Capriati did at this stage. This is what Hingis did at this stage, what the Williams sisters did at this stage.’”....Great stories, which prodigies continue to be, attract not just attention but money from sponsors. Parents and advisers can get more invested in success — and continued success — than the young player, and the result can be traumatic......Some precocious talents have experienced physical abuse,.....There is also the physical and mental toll of competing against older, potentially stronger opposition......“The main thing I looked at was how do you prevent injury,”.........The family has sought frequent outside counsel: “It’s honestly been a village of coaches,” he said.

Cori Gauff chose to sign with Team8, the agency started by Roger Federer and his longtime agent Tony Godsick, in part because the Gauffs believed a long-term approach had worked well for Federer, who turned pro at 17 and is still winning titles at 37.
African-Americans  athletes_&_athletics  benchmarking  cautionary_tales  dark_side  due_diligence  injury_prevention  long-term  outside_counsel  parenting  pitfalls  precociousness  prodigies  sports  systematic_approaches  teenagers  tennis  women 
july 2019 by jerryking
What You Need to Know to Pick an IPO
April 7, 2019 | WSJ | By Andy Kessler.
Dig up dirt on the competition and board members, and buy to hold long-term.......How do you know which IPOs to buy? No, not to trade—you’d never get it right. Lyft priced at $72, traded at $85 on its first day, then closed at $78, only to fall to $67 on its second day. It’s now $74. I’m talking about buying and holding for a few years. Yes I know, how quaint.

The trick is to read the prospectus. What are you, crazy? That’s a couple hundred pages. Well, not the whole thing. But remember, where the stock trades on its first day is noise....... So understanding long-term prospects are critical. Here are a few shortcuts.

(1) First, glance at the underwriters along the bottom of the cover. On the top line are the banks putting their reputation on the line. If the one on the far left is Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley or JPMorgan , you’re probably OK.
(2) open the management section and study the directors. Forget the venture capitalists or strategic partners with board seats—they have their own agendas. Non-employee directors are the ones who are supposed to be representing you, the public investor. And their value depends on their experience.
(3) OK, now figure out what the company does. You can watch the roadshow video, look at prospectus pictures, and skim the offering’s Business section. Now ignore most of that. Underwriters are often terrible at positioning companies to the market.......when positioning companies, only three things matter: a monster market; an unfair competitive advantage like patents, algorithms or a network effect; and a business model to leverage that advantage. Look for those. If you can’t find them, pass. Commodities crumble........read the Management’s Discussion and Analysis. Companies are forced to give detailed descriptions of each of their sectors and products or services. Then flip back and forth to the Financials, looking at the items on the income statement and matching them up with the operations being discussed. Figure out what the company might look like in five years. And use my “10x” rule: Lyft is worth $25 billion—can they make $2.5 billion after-tax someday? Finally there’s the Risk section, which is mostly boilerplate but can contain good dirt on competition.
(4) Put the prospectus away and save it as a souvenir. Try to figure out the real story of the company. Do some digging.
(5) My final advice: Never, ever put in a market order for shares on the first day of an IPO.
10x  advice  algorithms  Andy_Kessler  boards_&_directors_&_governance  business_models  competitive_advantage  deception  due_diligence  howto  IPOs  large_markets  long-term  Lyft  network_effects  noise  patents  positioning  prospectuses  risks  stock_picking  think_threes  Uber  underwriting  unfair_advantages 
april 2019 by jerryking
Andrew Marshall, Pentagon’s Threat Expert, Dies at 97 - The New York Times
By Julian E. Barnes
March 26, 2019

Andrew Marshall, a Pentagon strategist who helped shape U.S. military thinking on the Soviet Union, China and other global competitors for more than four decades, has died. He was 97. Mr. Marshall, as director of the Office of Net Assessment, was the secretive futurist of the Pentagon, a long-range thinker who prodded and inspired secretaries of defense and high-level policymakers.......Marshall was revered in the DoD as a mysterious Yoda-like figure who embodied an exceptionally long institutional memory.......... Marshall's view of China as a potential strategic adversary, an idea now at the heart of national defense strategy....Through his many hires and Pentagon grants..... Mr. Marshall trained a coterie of experts and strategists in Washington and beyond.....he cultivated thinking that looked beyond the nation’s immediate problems and sought to press military leaders to approach long-term challenges differently......His gift was the framing of the question, the discovery of the critical question..... always picking the least studied and most strategically significant subjects....Marshall’s career as a strategic thinker began in 1949 at the RAND Corporation, where his theory of competitive strategies took root. Borrowing from business school theories of how corporations compete against each other, Mr. Marshall argued that nations are also in strategic competition with one another. “His favorite example was if you can pit your strengths against someone else’s weakness and get them to respond in a way that makes them weaker and weaker, you can put them out of business without ever fighting,”....He had early insight into the economic troubles the Soviet Union was having, and helped develop strategies to exacerbate those problems and help bring about the demise of the Soviet Union....In 2009, Robert M. Gates, the defense secretary at the time, asked Mr. Marshall to write a classified strategy on China with Gen. Jim Mattis, the future defense secretary.
adversaries  assessments_&_evaluations  China  China_rising  classified  economists  éminence_grise  future  futurists  inspiration  institutional_memory  long-range  long-term  obituaries  Pentagon  policymakers  problem_framing  RAND  rising_powers  Robert_Gates  SecDef  security_&_intelligence  strategic_thinking  threats  trailblazers  uChicago 
march 2019 by jerryking
The U.S. Is Ceding the Pacific to China
March 3, 2019 | WSJ | By Mark Helprin.

While Washington’s focus is elsewhere, Beijing plays the long game—that means preparing for war.

The only effective leverage on China, and by extension North Korea—which otherwise will retain nuclear weapons whether overtly or covertly but certainly—is to alter the correlation of military forces in the Western Pacific, and indeed in the world, so that it no longer moves rapidly and inevitably in China’s favor, which is what China cares about, the essence of its policy, its central proposition. Though with some effort the U.S. is perfectly capable of embarking upon this strategy, it has not. It seems we lack the awareness, political will, intelligence, probity, discipline, leadership, and habit of mind to do so.
America_in_Decline?  Asia_Pacific  balance_of_power  China  China_rising  geopolitics  hard_power  long-term  long-range  maritime  Mark_Helprin  North_Korea  nuclear  PACOM  political_geography  rivalries  South_China_Sea  strategic_geography  submarines  trade_wars  U.S.  U.S._Navy  USMC  U.S.-China_relations  Xi_Jinping  zero-sum_games 
march 2019 by jerryking
Tristan Walker on the Roman Empire and Selling a Start-Up to Procter & Gamble - The New York Times
By David Gelles
Dec. 12, 2018

Tristan Walker founded Walker & Company, a maker of health and beauty products for people of color, in 2013. On Wednesday, the company was acquired by Procter & Gamble for an undisclosed sum. The deal represents a successful exit for Mr. Walker and his investors. It also signals an effort by Procter & Gamble, the maker of Gillette, to reach new markets with its shaving products. But while many start-up founders make a hasty exit after getting acquired, Mr. Walker is planning to stay on and grow Bevel, his men’s shaving brand, and Form, his women’s hair care brand. “We’re a team of 15 with very grandiose ambitions,” he said of Walker & Company, which is based in Palo Alto, Calif., but will move to Atlanta as part of the deal. “We want this company and its purpose to still be around 150 years from now.”

What’s that book you’ve got there?

It’s “Parallel Lives” by Plutarch. I’ve really been getting into Greek and Roman mythology. I’m reading something right now about the history of Rome during the 53 years when they really came into power, and this idea of the Roman state growing, the Greek state growing, and the differences therein fascinate me beyond belief. I’ve just been devouring it for the past few weeks now.

Walker attended the Hotchkiss School in Lakeville, Conn. And from there, he got to see how the other half lived. It completely changed his life. He got to see what success could look like. He got to see what wealth was. And it completely changed his worldview.

How so?

I would walk down the halls and see last names like Ford, go to some classes and realize they’re Rockefellers. These are names that were in my imagination. It taught me the importance of name and what that can mean, not only for you but your progeny. When I started at Hotchkiss, I didn’t know what a verb was. So I spent all of my time in the library studying. I spent all of my time thinking about what I wanted to be when I grew up.

What are your priorities as you keep building the company?

I’m dedicating my life to the demographic shift happening in this country. Not only for Silicon Valley. Not only for business. But for this country’s competitiveness. It’s changing. And folks need to respect that and they need to celebrate it.
African-Americans  Bevel  biographies  books  demographic_changes  entrepreneur  entrepreneurship  exits  Form  insights  long-term  P&G  Romans  Silicon_Valley  start_ups  Tristan_Walker  wealth_creation  black-owned  brands  consumer_goods  personal_care_products  personal_grooming  founders 
december 2018 by jerryking
Opinion | Playing the Long Game for the Supreme Court - The New York Times
By Linda Greenhouse
Contributing Opinion Writer

Oct. 25, 2018

Consider two news items from last week that serve to illuminate the current reality. One was the revelation that the Heritage Foundation, a deeply conservative policy shop in Washington that has partnered with the Federalist Society in providing President Trump with judicial nominees, was running a secretive training academy for ideologically vetted judicial law clerks. The foundation suspended the program after the report.

The other was the confirmation hearing the Republicans of the Senate Judiciary Committee held (the Democratic senators boycotted it) for Allison Jones Rushing, the president’s nominee for a vacancy on the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit. Ms. Rushing’s conservative credentials are impeccable, including ties to the Alliance Defending Freedom, a religious-right litigating organization. Ms. Rushing clerked for Justice Clarence Thomas and for Neil Gorsuch when he was a federal appeals court judge; those clerkships evidently accounted for the “incredible wealth of judicial experience” praised by one of her Judiciary Committee supporters, Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina. She graduated from law school 11 years ago. She is 36 years old.

How do those two developments relate to each other and to the legacy of the Bork battle? Following Judge Bork’s defeat, conservatives didn’t waste time licking their wounds. They got busy building the infrastructure necessary to accomplish their thwarted goals. The Federalist Society had been founded five years earlier by a handful of law students; Robert Bork and Antonin Scalia, then a law professor, both spoke at its first symposium.

The organization offered the perfect vehicle for cultivating a new generation of young conservative lawyers to enter the pipeline, serving as law clerks by the side of growing numbers of conservative judges and — like Justice Gorsuch and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, both former Supreme Court law clerks — becoming judges themselves.
conservatism  GOP  law  political_infrastructure  Robert_Bork  U.S._Supreme_Court  talent_pipelines  long-term 
october 2018 by jerryking
An unusual family approach to investing
May 30, 2018 | FT | John Gapper.

JAB’s acquisition of Pret A Manger resembles private equity but with a long-term twist.

Warren Buffett’s definition of Berkshire Hathaway’s ideal investment holding period as forever. ....Luxembourg-based JAB, owned by four heirs to a German chemical fortune, takes a family approach to investing. It is unusual in that this holding company seeks to retain its portfolio companies for at least a decade. These include Panera Bread, Krispy Kreme and Keurig Green Mountain coffee, which it merged with Dr Pepper Snapple in an $18.7bn deal in January 2018. This week JAB acquired the UK sandwich chain Pret A Manger for £1.5bn, continuing its buying spree of cafés and coffee, mounting a challenge to public companies such as Nestlé.

**These companies are acquired not to be traded but to be invested in and expanded.**

JAB is an innovative combination of ownership and investment in a world that needs challengers to stock market ownership and private equity. It is family controlled, but run by veteran professional executives. When it invests in companies such as Pret A Manger, it deploys not only the Reimann family’s wealth but that of other entrepreneurs and family investors.......Some of the equity for its recent deals, including Panera and Dr Pepper, came from funds raised by Byron Trott, the former Goldman Sachs investment banker best known for being trusted by the banker-averse Mr Buffett. Mr Trott’s BDT banking boutique specialises in advising founders and heirs to corporate fortunes, including the Waltons of Walmart, and the Mars and Pritzker families.

This is investment, but not as most of us know it. By definition, the world’s companies are mostly controlled by founders and their families — only a minority become big enough to be floated on stock markets and need to disclose much of their workings to outsiders. Family fortunes also tend to remain as private as possible: there is little incentive to advertise how much wealth one has inherited......As [families'] fortunes grow in size and sophistication, more of the cash is invested in other companies rather than in shares and bonds. That is where JAB and Mr Trott come in.

Entrepreneurs and their families tend to be fascinated by their own enterprises and bored by managing their wealth. But they want to preserve it, and they often like the idea of investing it in companies similar to their own — industrial and consumer groups that need more capital to expand. It is not only more interesting but a form of self-affirmation for the successful....Being acquired by JAB is appealing. The group turns up, says it will not take part in an auction but offers a good price (it bought Pret for more than its former owner Bridgepoint could get by floating it). It often keeps the existing executives, telling them they have to plough their own money into the company, and invests in long-term growth provided the business is efficiently run.

This is more congenial than heading a public company and contending with a huge variety of shareholders, including short-term and activist investors. It is also less risky than being bought by 3G Capital, the cost-cutting private equity group with which Mr Buffett teamed up to acquire Kraft Heinz. While 3G is expert at eliminating expenses it is less so at encouraging growth.
coffee  dynasties  high_net_worth  holding_periods  investing  investors  JAB  long-term  Nestlé  Pritzker  private_equity  privately_held_companies  Unilever  unusual  Warren_Buffett  family  cafés  Pret_A_Manger  3G_Capital  discretion  entrepreneur  boring  family_business  heirs 
may 2018 by jerryking
12 CRUCIAL QUESTIONS TO BETTER DECISION-MAKING:
May 31, 2018 | The Globe and Mail | HARVEY SCHACHTER.

Here are 12 crucial factors that consultant Nathan Magnuson says you should consider in decision-making:

* Are you the right person to make the decision?
* What outcomes are you directly respons...
benefits  clarity  core_values  costs  data  data_driven  decision_making  delighting_customers  long-term  managing_up  Occam's_Razor  personal_control  priorities  questions  the_right_people  what_really_matters 
may 2018 by jerryking
The best way to solve a problem is to wait a while
May 25, 2018 | Financial Times Tim Harford YESTERDAY.

The world is full of risks. Can anyone guarantee that over the next 300 years both the UK trust fund and country will survive asteroid strikes, thermonuclear war or a deliberately engineered pandemic?

Perhaps we are getting ahead of ourselves. The imminent threat to the trust fund is the British government itself, which has decided that a tiny advantage is worth seizing now, since the costs will fall to someone else. (You may supply your own analogy at this point.)

All democratically elected governments struggle to see past the next election, but this one struggles to see past next Tuesday. In fairness, it often feels as if the next election may come sooner than that. And it is hard to take a truly long-term perspective, whether contemplating the future of human life or the prospect of cheesecake.

As long as the [UK] debt stays roughly in proportion to national income — not an outrageous assumption — then the trust fund would be sufficient to pay off the debt a mere four centuries after the original bequest

The Astronomer Royal Sir Martin Rees wrote a book titled Our Final Century, warning of the existential threats arising from complex, interconnected modern systems. The book was renamed Our Final Hour in the US, perhaps because a century seemed like too much time to kill.

Economists and moral philosophers argue among themselves over how to account for the interests of future generations. The answer is far from obvious. It turns out to be crucial in pondering a rational response to slow-burning disasters such as climate change — assuming that anyone cares about a rational response, which seems a forlorn hope.
problem_solving  Tim_Harford  long-term  books  disasters  slowly_moving  short-sightedness  imperceptible_threats  existential  interconnections 
may 2018 by jerryking
BlackRock’s Larry Fink Wants to Become the Next Warren Buffett
Feb. 7, 2018 | WSJ | By Sarah Krouse.

BlackRock’s new vehicle, known within the firm as a “long-term private capital” vehicle, is part of that push to emphasize alternative investments. The firm already manages $145 billion in higher-fee investment strategies that include private equity and hedge funds of funds, real assets and private credit. But it doesn’t have a buyout fund of its own.
BlackRock  Laurence_Fink  asset_management  Warren_Buffett  long-term  investors  investing 
february 2018 by jerryking
The Economy Needs Amazons, but It Mostly Has GEs
the country as a whole badly needs some rules-defying risk-taking. For business, that means a bit more Amazon in the boardroom and a bit less GE....The purchase of Whole Foods by Amazon introduced a level of volatility and turmoil (at least singularly to the retail sector) which had been absent from the market for a long time....The rest of the market remained placid. And months of historically low volatility has begun to look like dangerous complacency....... another, potentially more troubling explanation: stagnation. Muted markets may be an inevitable product of steady, sluggish growth, low and predictable interest rates, declining business startups and failures, and decreased competition. In other words, the problem is, there aren’t enough Amazons disrupting the stock market and the economy.....Jeffrey Bezos founded Amazon in 1994, he has prioritized expansion and innovation ahead of profit. In its early years, free cash flow—cash from operations minus CAPEX—hovered around zero. Mr. Bezos approaches new products like a VC. Many will flop (like the Fire smartphone), but some will be home runs (e.g. AWS). Amazon launched Prime, which offers free delivery in exchange for an annual fee, in 2005. John Blackledge, notes Amazon has repeatedly innovated in ways that make Prime even more valuable to subscribers.......Amazon is now profitable, yet cash retention remains secondary to building great products and delighting and retaining customers.

....If Amazon is one extreme in how companies invest, General ElectricCo. is the other. It has long been fastidious about capital and cash deployment......CEO Jack Welch perfected this approach in the 1990s.. it continued under Jeffrey Immelt. Last week, Mr. Immelt said he would retire, after 16 years struggling to restore growth. In part, that reflected how financial engineering had inflated profits under Mr. Welch. Yet Mr. Immelt ’s investment decisions too often chased the conventional wisdom on Wall Street and in Washington. ...........growth is hard for any company that dominates its markets as much as GE does. GE’s size also attracts debilitating political scrutiny. ....In response to new regulations and pressure from Wall Street, Mr. Immelt largely dismantled the business...........Investors still want GE to return cash to shareholders, and it has obliged,.....while good for shareholders in the short run, this is no recipe for growth in the long run. GE’s cash flow is shrinking despite the company’s focus on preserving it, while Amazon’s is growing despite that company’s readiness to spend it.......North American boardrooms desparately needs some rules-defying risk-taking. For business, that means a bit more Amazon in the boardroom and a bit less GE

[ See John Authers article which references Vix]

The "Minsky Moment" occurs when investors realize that they have paid far too much for the credits that have bought, no buyers can be found, and the system collapses. Aka Wile E. Coyote running-off-a-cliff....The greatest dangers to us are not from things we perceive to be high-risk, because we generally treat them carefully. Trouble arises from that which we perceive to be low-risk.
digital_economy  Amazon  GE  Amazon_Prime  risk-taking  volatility  Greg_Ip  stagnation  cash_flows  long-term  growth  start_ups  complacency  instability  conventional_wisdom  Jeffrey_Immelt  Jack_Welch  conglomerates  delighting_customers  capital_allocation  Jeff_Bezos  financial_engineering  rule_breaking 
june 2017 by jerryking
20 Years On, Amazon and Jeff Bezos Prove Naysayers Wrong - The New York Times
Andrew Ross Sorkin
DEALBOOK MAY 15, 2017

Twenty years ago this week, Amazon.com went public........Here we are, 20 years later, and Mr. Bezos has an authentic, legitimate claim on having changed the way we live.

He has changed the way we shop. He has changed the way companies use computers, by moving much of their information and systems to cloud services. He’s even changed the way we interact with computers by voice: “Alexa!”......he has bought — and fixed — The Washington Post,.........Most executives are worried about the next quarter, but Mr. Bezos is worried about what will happen years from now. That is a competitive advantage that many chief executives could learn from.

“If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you’re competing against a lot of people,” Mr. Bezos told Wired in 2011. Here, he was expressing the view that some chief executives think in three-year cycles — a relatively generous assessment, given that most top executives don’t last many more years than that.

“But,” he continued, “if you’re willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people, because very few companies are willing to do that.”....Is Mr. Bezos an easy boss? Hardly. He is unbelievably demanding. ......I’m supposed to hate Mr. Bezos. After all, he has pressured publishers, cut their margins and practically put old-school bookstores out of business. As if to rub it in, he’s now introducing bricks-and-mortar Amazon bookstores.

But to take that view would be to misunderstand what innovation looks like. It upends industries — witness the current carnage in the retail industry, which has been outmoded by Amazon and all the companies trying to copy it.

“Amazon is not happening to book selling,” Mr. Bezos explained, defending his role in a 2013 interview with Charlie Rose. “The future is happening to book selling.” And the future is now happening to retail stores and even supermarkets — Mr. Bezos’ next conquest. And the future is clearly happening to enterprise computing.
Andrew_Sorkin  Jeff_Bezos  Amazon  WaPo  newspapers  e-commerce  innovation  anniversaries  moguls  trailblazers  cloud_computing  Alexa  long-term  Warren_Buffett 
may 2017 by jerryking
You must do these two difficult things to invest as patiently as the greats - The Globe and Mail
TOM BRADLEY
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Sunday, Jan. 15, 2017

Great investors have differences, but they share a number of key attributes.

They have an independent view. They feel no obligation to invest in something because others are doing it or because it’s a part of an index. Indeed, they prefer when a stock isn’t popular or heavily traded.

They buy when opportunities present themselves, not when the money is available. Cash doesn’t burn a hole in their pocket.

They buy assets that, in their reasoned opinion, will eventually be worth considerably more than they’re able to purchase them for. The key word being eventually. Their time frame is only slightly shorter than that.

They don’t get hung up on short-term events, although they do monitor them closely so they can take advantage of opportunities. Price movements and/or liquidity events may allow them to buy more or sell, and any new information can be used to update their valuation models.

You get the picture. Patient capital is focused on long-term value creation. It’s comfortable being out-of-sync with popular trends. And it doesn’t get distressed by market dislocations, it gets excited.

If working with a financial adviser, they have to understand and believe in the patient-capital approach. No prattling from them about quick stock or ETF flips. No recommendations of "hot" fund managers nor cold feet when short-term results are poor.

You want advisers and money managers who can live up to the traits listed above and, ideally, who are working in organizations that exemplify the same traits. You and your adviser have a better chance of being “patient capital” if the firm’s sales, marketing, product development and investment strategies are aligned.
Tom_Bradley  investors  long-term  strategic_patience  liquidity_events  personality_types/traits  dislocations  undervalued  opportunistic  unanimity  personal_finance  financial_advisors  contrarians  independent_viewpoints  financial_pornography  best_of 
january 2017 by jerryking
Growing a Different Apple - The New York Times
January 2, 2017 | NYT | By Vindu Goel

Founded in 2014 by three former senior managers from Apple’s iPod and iPhone groups, Pearl has tried to replicate what its leaders view as the best parts of Apple’s culture, like its fanatical dedication to quality and beautiful design. But the founders also consciously rejected some of the less appealing aspects of life at Apple, like its legendary secrecy and top-down management style.

The start-up, which makes high-tech accessories for cars, holds weekly meetings with its entire staff. Managers brief them on coming products, company finances, technical problems, even the presentations made to the board....Pearl’s siren song was appealing: Make the roads safer by giving tens of millions of older autos the same high-tech safety features that the newest models have.....Like Apple, though, Pearl is playing the long game. Engineers are already testing self-parking technology and other driver-assistance features for future products. So far, the company has raised $50 million from prominent venture capital firms, including Accel, Shasta Ventures and Venrock, but Mr. Gardner said it would need to raise more money in 2017.
Apple  alumni  design  detail_oriented  organizational_culture  accessories  automotive_industry  automobile  safety  Pearl  new_products  long-term 
january 2017 by jerryking
Airbnb, Uber, Snap Aim to Show They’re More Than One Hot Product - WSJ
By GREG BENSINGER
Dec. 11, 2016

As IPO talk swirls, tech startups seek to demonstrate to investors they have a vision for long-term growth..... It's questionable whether unicorns can find new revenue opportunities that are complementary to their core business, but [which also] can help them find new customers.”
growth  Airbnb  Uber  Snap  new_businesses  product_extensions  core_businesses  unicorns  vision  long-term 
december 2016 by jerryking
China’s Firms Strive to Gain a Foothold in U.S. Venture Capital - WSJ
By LI YUAN
Nov. 23, 2016

“In an era when information and capital are commoditized, brand and network become more valuable,” she says. “It takes years to build them. The venture industry is a long game, not a sprint.”
vc  venture_capital  Silicon_Valley  China  Chinese  long-term  long-range  commoditization_of_information 
november 2016 by jerryking
6 Ways Pretend Investors Differ From the Real Ones
NOV. 21, 2016 | The New York Times | By CARL RICHARDS.

* Have a long term plan
* Don't react to every single event that happens in the short term. Financial pornography is not 'actionable information' on which to make a decision about.
* Make changes to my investments based on what happens in my own life. If my goals change or there is a fundamental change in my financial situation, then I should consider an alteration.
* Real investors know that it takes a long time for a tree to grow, and it will not help to dig it up to see if the roots are still there. The same rule applies to investments. And because watching things get big slowly is not very exciting, real investors tend not to talk about that tree all that much.
* Real investors understand the difference between the global economy and their personal economy (aka micro economy) and choose to focus on the latter.
* Focus on the things I can control, like saving a bit more next year, keeping my investment costs low, not paying fees unless it’s necessary and managing my behavior by not buying high and selling again when prices are low.
howto  investors  advice  personal_finance  beyond_one's_control  habits  microeconomics  personal_economy  actionable_information  long-term  span_of_control  financial_pornography  patience  noise  discretion  global_economy 
november 2016 by jerryking
Why It’s Not Enough Just to Be Disruptive - The New York Times
By JEREMY G. PHILIPS AUG. 10, 2016

Short-term success may be driven by exceptional execution; long-term value creation requires building a defensible model.

Any microeconomics textbook will tell you there are limited sources of competitive advantage. The most valuable companies combine several reinforcing strands, like scale and customer loyalty.....

While it is hard to stay ahead solely through superior execution over an extended period, it is sometimes enough in the short term to draw a deep-pocketed buyer where there are strong, immediate synergies. Creating enormous value over the long term requires turning a tactical edge into some form of durable advantage....Superior tactical execution can still create real value, particularly where it provides ammunition for a bigger war (like Walmart’s battle with Amazon). And in the long term, value is created not by disruption, but by weaving together advantages (as both Amazon and Walmart have done in different ways) that together create a barrier that is hard to storm.
disruption  value_creation  Gillette  competitive_advantage  execution  books  slight_edge  Amazon  Wal-Mart  microeconomics  short-term  long-term  barriers_to_entry  compounded  kaleidoscopic  unfair_advantages  endurance  synergies  M&A  mergers_&_acquisitions 
august 2016 by jerryking
Forget Endorsements: Sports and Entertainment Stars These Days Want Equity - Knowledge@Wharton
$40 Million Slaves by William C. Rhoden, a sportswriter for the New York Times. Rhoden argues that superstar African-American athletes have failed to take advantage of their opportunities to become self-made entrepreneurs, and that integration actually damaged — in the short-term, anyway — the possibilities for black coaches, trainers and even agents.
entertainment_industry  athletes_&_athletics  self-made  African-Americans  endorsements  economic_empowerment  equity  long-term  Wharton  conferences  books  superstars 
may 2016 by jerryking
Eight steps to making better decisions as a manager - The Globe and Mail
HARVEY SCHACHTER
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Sunday, May 08, 2016

Write down the key facts that need to be considered. Too often we jump into decisions and ignore the obvious.

Write down five pre-existing goals or priorities that will be affected by the decision.

Write down realistic alternatives – at least three, but ideally four or more.

Write down what’s missing. Information used to be scarce. Now it’s so abundant it can distract us from checking what’s missing (jk: i.e. the commoditization of information)

Write down the impact your decision will have one year in the future. By thinking a year out, you are separating yourself from the immediate moment, lessening emotions. [Reminiscent of Suzy Welch’s 10-10-10 rule. When you’re about to make a decision, ask yourself how you will feel about it 10 minutes from now? 10 months from now? and 10 years from now? People are overly biased by the immediate pain of some choice, but they can put the short-term pain in long-term perspective by asking these questions].

Involve at least two more people in the decision but no more than six additional team members. This ensures less bias, more perspectives, and since more people contributed to the decision, increased buy-in when implementing it.

Write down what was decided, as well as why and how much the team supports the decision.

Schedule a follow-up in one to two months.
Harvey_Schachter  decision_making  goals  buy-in  options  unknowns  following_up  note_taking  dissension  perspectives  biases  information_gaps  long-term  dispassion  alternatives  think_threes  unsentimental  Suzy_Welch  commoditization_of_information  process-orientation 
may 2016 by jerryking
Thoughtful Italian dealmaker who plays the long game
| Financial Times |

Stefano Pessina has struck dozens of deals during his 40-year career. But unlike a gung-ho corporate raider, the 74-year-old chief executive of Walgreens Boots Alliance has played the long game, getting to know potential partners and targets, and waiting for the right moment to strike. This week was no different. Walgreens announced the purchase of Rite Aid for $17.2bn, alighting on the chain in a period of consolidation in the US pharmacy industry.
dealmakers  Italian  pharmaceutical_industry  retailers  CEOs  consolidation  pharmacies  long-term  long-range 
november 2015 by jerryking
Why growth hacking is a foreign concept to many business owners - The Globe and Mail
MIA PEARSON
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, May. 21 2015,

Quite simply, growth hacking is about focusing your energy in the right areas, being creative and using a combination of analytical thinking, social metrics and long-term thinking to power low-cost innovation....“The most successful businesses are always trying to find scalable and repeatable methods for growth, and their marketing strategies and tactics are rooted in data and technology,”...Use data analytics Markus Frind, CEO of PlentyOfFish and a speaker at Traction Conf, describes growth hacking for him as “applying data to marketing to achieve growth, via virality.”

Mr. Frind started his company in 2003 and grew it into one of the largest online dating sites in the world. With more than 100 million users and $100-million in revenue, he knows what he’s talking about. And luckily, Google Analytics is available to everyone.

For Mr. Frind, growth hacking boils down to a combination of “SEO, split-testing and understanding the virality of the users.” He believes understanding that made it “easy to see what was working and what wasn’t.”

By understanding where traffic is coming from and why people are seeking you out, you have a stronger understanding of your consumer – and you’re incredibly short-sighted if you don’t think your consumer defines your brand. This is a significant piece of the puzzle for growing a business.
analytics  customer_insights  effectiveness  growth_hacking  innovation  long-term  marketing  repeatability  SEO  short-sightedness  small_business  virality 
june 2015 by jerryking
The Mind of Marc Andreessen - The New Yorker
MAY 18, 2015 | New Yorker | BY TAD FRIEND.

Doug Leone, one of the leaders of Sequoia Capital, by consensus Silicon Valley’s top firm, said, “The biggest outcomes come when you break your previous mental model. The black-swan events of the past forty years—the PC, the router, the Internet, the iPhone—nobody had theses around those. So what’s useful to us is having Dumbo ears.”* A great V.C. keeps his ears pricked for a disturbing story with the elements of a fairy tale. This tale begins in another age (which happens to be the future), and features a lowborn hero who knows a secret from his hardscrabble experience. The hero encounters royalty (the V.C.s) who test him, and he harnesses magic (technology) to prevail. The tale ends in heaping treasure chests for all, borne home on the unicorn’s back....Marc Andreessen is tomorrow’s advance man, routinely laying out “what will happen in the next ten, twenty, thirty years,” as if he were glancing at his Google calendar. He views his acuity as a matter of careful observation and extrapolation, and often invokes William Gibson’s observation “The future is already here—it’s just not very evenly distributed.”....Andreessen applies a maxim from his friend and intellectual sparring partner Peter Thiel, who co-founded PayPal and was an early investor in LinkedIn and Yelp. When a reputable venture firm leads two consecutive rounds of investment in a company, Andreessen told me, Thiel believes that that is “a screaming buy signal, and the bigger the markup on the last round the more undervalued the company is.” Thiel’s point, which takes a moment to digest, is that, when a company grows extremely rapidly, even its bullish V.C.s, having recently set a relatively low value on the previous round, will be slightly stuck in the past. The faster the growth, the farther behind they’ll be....When a16z began, it didn’t have even an ersatz track record to promote. So Andreessen and Horowitz consulted on tactics with their friend Michael Ovitz, who co-founded the Hollywood talent agency Creative Artists Agency, in 1974. Ovitz told me that he’d advised them to distinguish themselves by treating the entrepreneur as a client: “Take the long view of your platform, rather than a transactional one. Call everyone a partner, offer services the others don’t, and help people who aren’t your clients. Disrupt to differentiate by becoming a dream-execution machine.”
Marc_Andreessen  Andreessen_Horowitz  Silicon_Valley  transactional_relationships  venture_capital  vc  Peter_Thiel  long-term  far-sightedness  Sequoia  mindsets  observations  partnerships  listening  insights  Doug_Leone  talent_representation  CAA  mental_models  warning_signs  signals  beforemath  unevenly_distributed  low_value  extrapolations  acuity  professional_service_firms  Michael_Ovitz  execution  William_Gibson 
may 2015 by jerryking
How to Buy Art: A Beginner’s Cheat Sheet - NYTimes.com
MAY 7, 2015 | NYT| By WILLIAM GRIMES and ROBIN POGREBIN.

EDUCATE YOUR EYE Go see as much as you can — at galleries, museums and art fairs and by trolling online. The more art you see, the more you will develop clear judgment. Knowledge can help put things in context, but expertise isn’t a prerequisite. Marc Glimcher, president of Pace Gallery, says: “Go to a museum first and see what speaks to you. Identify which thread of art history is meaningful to you before heading to the galleries or the auction.”

Photo

THE LONG VIEW Budding collectors shouldn’t just buy what initially captivates them. “Ask yourself how something might look when you know more, how something might look over time,” said Amy Cappellazzo, co-founder of Art Agency, Partners, an art advisory firm. “The best thing to do is put yourself in a position where the first purchase actually challenges you a little — you’re not sure you like something, but you can’t stop looking at it. Imagine your smarter self looking at it in five years.”
auctions  art  artwork  art_galleries  museums  howto  self-education  judgment  Colleges_&_Universities  art_schools  students  contextual  long-term  collectors  collectibles  investing  investment_advice  pitfalls  mistakes 
may 2015 by jerryking
BlackRock’s Chief, Laurence Fink, Urges Other C.E.O.s to Stop Being So Nice to Investors - NYTimes.com
APRIL 13, 2015
Continue reading the main storyVideo

PLAY VIDEO|3:24
BlackRock Chief on ‘Gambling Society’
BlackRock Chief on ‘Gambling Society’
Laurence D. Fink, chief executive of the largest asset manager in the world, warns that too many C.E.O.’s have been trying to return money to investors through dividends and buying back stock By CNBC on Publish Date April 14, 2015. Photo by Mark Lennihan/Associated Press.

Andrew Ross Sorkin
Laurence_Fink  CEOs  asset_management  Andrew_Sorkin  institutional_investors  Wall_Street  shareholder_activism  long-term  BlackRock 
april 2015 by jerryking
Capital Markets 'Impediment' to Innovation - The CFO Report - WSJ
June 20, 2011, 10:05 PM ET

By MICHAEL HICKINS

Glenn Hutchins, the co-founder and co-CEO of private equity firm Silver Lake, believes the expectations of shareholders and analysts often prevent companies from investing in new businesses or technologies. “One of the largest impediments to getting all of this done is in fact the capital markets,” he said during the opening panel discussion of The Wall Street Journal’s CFO Network Conference.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

CFOs often find it tough to make aggressive, long-term investments because explaining the reason for “making a short-term diminution for the purpose of a long-term gain [to the equity markets] is very difficult to do.”

Still, companies need to be willing to overhaul their entire businesses, if necessary, to avoid being overtaken by aggressive innovators...He lauded Apple for being willing to promote something like the iPad despite the fact that the tablet may in fact destroy the computer maker’s iMac franchise. “Business model innovation is underrated,”.....Also speaking on the panel, HBS professor Clayton Christensen blamed a corporate culture born, ironically, of business school formulas that separate strategy and finance. “The business schools decided to teach strategy and finance [separately] and this got carried over into companies. [But] a lot of things that make sense financially make no sense strategically.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
With the finance function certainly in mind, Christensen wrote that, “Managing innovation is the complexity of managing the resource allocation process.”
Silver_Lake  Clayton_Christensen  innovation  short-sightedness  strategy  finance  CFOs  long-term  impediments  capital_markets  business_models  Glenn_Hutchins  resource_allocation  expectations  new_businesses  new_products  investors'_expectations 
february 2015 by jerryking
Maybe it’s time to rewire and unplug the next generation - The Globe and Mail
Nov. 30 2014 |Special to The Globe and Mail | GWYN MORGAN.

How can people who’ve spent almost every waking minute moment fixated on their gadgets learn thinking skills such as problem solving, strategic planning and disciplined time management? Psychological studies don’t paint an encouraging picture....It’s dangerous from a social standpoint because constantly distracted people who are incapable of long-form thinking will have difficulty managing their lives. And it’s dangerous economically because business success in a globally competitive world requires undivided focus, analytical accuracy, creative problem solving, innovative thinking and team-working skills.

The Internet brain seeks to fill all “gap” time tweeting, texting, e-mailing, following Facebook “friends” and, if there’s any spare minutes left, playing video games. Is it possible to rewire the Internet-addicted brain? I wouldn’t be surprised to see “Internet withdrawal” retreat centres emerge as a new business opportunity. And businesses should be adding “long-form thinking” to employee development programs. The survival of their enterprises may depend upon it.
millennials  smartphones  Gwyn_Morgan  slack_time  strategic_thinking  monotasking  long-term  digital_natives  timeouts 
december 2014 by jerryking
Are book publishers blockbustering themselves into oblivion? - The Globe and Mail
RUSSELL SMITH
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Nov. 28 2014

Whatever they mean, they certainly cannot mean a shrinking talent pool.

So they must mean that they are not, in fact, interested in the real talent pool, or in a wide variety of literature. What they are looking for are bestsellers, which tend to be particularly narrow kinds of books. Most of the gargantuan advances that have made headlines in the U.S. recently are for science-fiction and fantasy books. Every publisher is looking for exactly the same book – basically, they are looking for The Hunger Games again and again. When they say “quality,” they mean “mass appeal.”...But in concentrating on bestsellers to the detriment of other literature, the publishers are simply following the model of all the entertainment industries. Providing an eclectic variety of entertainments to please a diverse audience, as the free Internet can do, just hasn’t been lucrative for the conglomerates that own film studios and recording labels. They are in constant search of blockbusters.

As they grow larger and concentrate their efforts and investments on massive, sure-fire hits – the next Marvel movie, the next Taylor Swift album – the cultural landscape seems paradoxically smaller. It becomes even more difficult to get an indie film made – the huge projects suck the oxygen (financing, distribution, media coverage) out of the biosphere.

In following this larger trend, book publishers are shortsighted. By reducing their involvement in original and challenging art, they relinquish literary fiction to the tiny presses and online magazines, and so become artistically irrelevant and, in the long run, uninteresting even as suppliers of entertainment. Pursuing mainstream popularity with ever-larger sums of money is ultimately self-destructive....Yes, such high-mindedness is all very well for someone who doesn’t have to keep a money-losing, employment-providing company afloat. And Le Guin’s vague rejection of capitalism is not a solution to the immediate problems facing publishers. But her point about taking the long view – about concentrating on valuable literature for the sake of the industry’s general health – is surely a practical one as well.
books  publishing  Russell_Smith  literature  blockbusters  art  short-sightedness  conglomerates  indie  winner-take-all  Amazon  writers  long-term  self-destructive  talent_pools 
november 2014 by jerryking
Why strategy is dead in the water - The Globe and Mail
HARVEY SCHACHTER
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Sunday, Nov. 16 2014

Old line discussions of "strategy" assumed that one's competitors today will be one's competitors forever. It also assumed that companies can control distribution and send out targeted marketing messages to prospects and customers. These days, competition can come at you from all directions – witness, for example, the many companies with which Amazon.com, once just a book seller, competes. Distribution is wild and woolly, and in an era of social media, companies no longer control the messages about their offerings.

“Control and predictability have been greatly diminished,”
Here are seven factors that prevent you from being classically strategic:

1. Incrementalism has been disrupted
2. Outcomes are unpredictable.
3. The past is no longer a predictor.
4. Competitive lines have been dissolved.
5. Information is abundant (i.e. the commoditization_of_information)
6. It hard to forecast value.
7. Fast trumps long-term.
fast-paced  commoditization_of_information  strategy  Michael_Porter  Harvey_Schachter  long-term  unpredictability  GE  IBM  data  information_overload  incrementalism  Amazon  kaleidoscopic 
november 2014 by jerryking
The Grand Strategy Obama Needs
SEPT. 10, 2014 | NYTimes.com | Vali R. Nasr.

What’s missing is a grand strategy — a road map not just for managing two crises but for ending them....But Eisenhower had a larger goal — not upsetting the delicate balance of power in the Cold War. Above all, he sought to avoid greater conflict, especially when he was trying to start arms control talks with Moscow.

In other words, he had a long-term global perspective.

By contrast, American policy today sees the world in fragments — ISIS in Iraq and Syria, Russia in Ukraine. But those crises have something important in common: Both trace to political fragmentation in weak states living within unsettled borders. That leaves those states prone to internal dissent, and America’s recent minimalist posture has given these brewing troubles room to explode into crises....American grand strategy should identify these weak countries before they turn on themselves; bolster their political mechanisms for living together in pluralism; declare our unyielding opposition to any outside forces that would seek to divide them. America’s military strength could assure the third part. The rest is work for our political and diplomatic experts.
Obama  Ukraine  strategy  geopolitics  '50s  Middle_East  Russia  strategic_thinking  nation_building  failed_states  long-term  weak_states  diplomacy  grand_strategy  roadmaps  Non-Integrating_Gap  Dwight_Eisenhower  crisis 
september 2014 by jerryking
BlackRock’s Aladdin: genie not included - FT.com
July 11, 2014 | FT |By Tracy Alloway.
(Risk management technology is no substitute for investor instinct)
Aladdin is BlackRock's current, state of the art risk and order management system. Aladdin has been described as BlackRock’s “central nervous system” but what is less well-known is that the operating platform also acts as the brains at some 60 other financial firms which altogether handle a whopping $14tn worth of assets.

At banks, investment managers and trading outfits around the world, Aladdin’s genie is hard at work analysing portfolios, running stress test scenarios and generally employing BlackRock’s “collective intelligence” to perform a whole host of financial functions....the increasingly significant role that Aladdin and its 25m lines of code plays in the wider financial markets has, with notable exceptions, largely been overlooked....The role of these formulas or programs tends to go unnoticed but they often play two key roles in the build-ups to financial crises. Firstly they give investors and traders a potentially dangerous sense of control over risk. Second, as their use proliferates, they also encourage a build-up of “one-way” bets as investors increasingly come to rely on similar data and analysis.
BlackRock  Laurence_Fink  asset_management  pretense_of_knowledge  long-term  risk-management  Wall_Street  collective_intelligence  systemic_risks  order_management_system  algorithms  platforms  Aladdin  stress-tests  overconfidence  overlooked  false_confidence  scenario-planning  financial_crises 
july 2014 by jerryking
Ad executive Winston Binch preaches the importance of invention - The Globe and Mail
May. 15 2014 | The Globe and Mail | SUSAN KRASHINSKY - MARKETING REPORTER.

Q: You spoke about the way advertising is migrating more toward inventing things – a big trend for advertisers looking to get noticed.

A: Agencies have been making products for a long time. Alcohol brands have been invented by plenty of agencies, for example. But it used to be an idea and you’d outsource the production. What’s different now is a lot more of it is technology, it’s digitally based. That requires new people in the building. ... There’s a lot of talk about invention right now in advertising. It’s startup culture."....The difficult thing is selling [invention/innovation] to clients. A lot of our clients all know they need to do it, and they want to, but it’s hard to find room for it given the demands of their businesses, particularly the Fortune 500s. ... They’re more concerned with short term than long term. Innovation is seen as a long-term thing. And also hasn’t been in marketing organizations; usually IT, product design and R&D, not the marketing side. How do we sell more invention products to our clients?
Susan_Krashinsky  inventions  advertising  advertising_agencies  hard_to_find  data_driven  digital_media  long-term  innovation  ideas  storytelling  experimentation  Fortune_500  product_development  large_companies 
may 2014 by jerryking
Ontario’s ‘none of the above’ election - The Globe and Mail
JEFFREY SIMPSON
The Globe and Mail
Published Saturday, May. 24 2014

Start with economic growth after inflation. From 1982 to 2013, it averaged 2.6 per cent. From 2014 to 2035, it will be 2.1 per cent. Roughly speaking, therefore, growth will be about 20 per cent slower.

The labour force will grow more slowly largely because of an aging population, a change being felt throughout Canada. Labour productivity will be flat at best, and quite likely lower than from 1985 to 2000. In the meantime, global competition will intensify.

Manufacturing has been declining as a share of the economy in North America and Western Europe. Ontario’s decline was halted temporarily back when the Canadian dollar plunged to nearly 60 cents, but those days are long gone.

The province’s cost competitiveness – this is one of the two or three central challenges – has been poor. Unit labour costs have gone up by a little over 5 per cent per year over the last 13 years, compared with just over 2 per cent in the United States.

When a province’s unit labour costs rise more than twice as fast as the country where it does 78 per cent of its trade, the results are obvious: plant shutdowns, unemployment and not enough new capacity added. Automobiles are the classic case: plant openings in Mexico and the U.S., but none recently in Ontario.

Business investment in machinery and equipment has lagged the Canadian average and is far below the United States. Research and development, a pathway to innovation, also lags. It’s better than the very poor Canadian average, but far below the U.S. Take away the healthy financial sector and the Toronto’s overheated housing market, and what do you have?

In Toronto and Ottawa, where prosperity is sustained, it’s easy to forget the swaths of the province in the southwest, north and east, where very little new economic activity has been taking place. The old industrial cities – Hamilton, Windsor, St. Catharines, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Sault Ste. Marie – and smaller cities, such as Leamington, are nearly all suffering in one form or another.

For most of the past quarter-century, Ontario provincial governments have run deficits. Slowly, the debt has risen. Such is the situation that Ontario now receives yearly small payments from the country’s equalization scheme. (And such is the absurdity of the scheme that Ontario taxpayers remain net contributors to Ottawa, which then turns around and gives a small portion of the revenues back in equalization.)

The Ontario government has reached far, but failed to execute: clean energy, gas plants, e-health, Ornge air ambulance, nuclear cost overruns. No wonder trust in government is low. For almost a decade, the Liberal government let health-care spending rip – 7-per-cent yearly increases without commensurate improvements in the system. (Spending increases are now down to 2.5 per cent a year.)

Very, very powerful – and very, very conservative – public-sector unions and associations in schools, universities, health care, policing, firefighting and municipal government make change very, very difficult.
Ontario  elections  turnout  Jeffrey_Simpson  challenges  long-term  slow_growth  low_growth  Queen’s_Park 
may 2014 by jerryking
World’s largest asset manager rails against companies’ short-term thinking - The Globe and Mail
BOYD ERMAN
The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, May. 23 2014,

...Mr. Fink is worried that the great tide of economic growth is not rising as quickly as it could be because of persistent and pernicious short-term thinking. Everyone from Main Street to Wall Street to Pennsylvania Avenue is too focused on near-term waves to pay attention to what the overall water level is doing.

Blogs, polls, the story of the moment – that is what drives peoples’ thinking, he says. That means investment decisions and political moves are based on what’s happening now, and not long-term goals. The economy will bear the cost of this short-term obsession, and so will investors, Mr. Fink warns. He would like to see big changes in everything from accounting to corporate governance to government spending priorities, to reset the focus on more distant horizons....“We need executives in business to start focusing on what is right in the long run,” ...“Societies are having a hard time, politically and economically, adjusting to the immediacy of information: The 24/7 news cycle, blogs, the instantaneous information. It’s very hard. This is one of the things where we are developing a crisis.”...Mr. Fink is particularly frustrated with the lionization of activist investors in the media. Think Bill Ackman, Carl Icahn and others who push for changes that will lead to an immediate runup in the stock price,....Similarly, he is critical of accounting rules that push insurance companies to invest in shorter-term assets, rather than long-term projects such as infrastructure. “Everything is leading toward an underinvestment in infrastructure and an underinvestment in capital expenditures.”...In 1999, the company went public. It has grown incredibly fast ever since. It manages money for everyone from retail investors to pension plans. During the financial crisis, the U.S. Treasury hired BlackRock to run assets in the Troubled Asset Relief Program, and the Bank of Greece hired the company to help fix the country’s banking system. (Model for WaudWare?)
BlackRock  Laurence_Fink  asset_management  long-term  Boyd_Erman  Wall_Street  delayed_gratification  thinking  strategic_thinking  Communicating_&_Connecting  CEOs  money_management  shareholder_activism  immediacy  insurance  infrastructure  CAPEX  short-term  short-term_thinking  financial_pornography  pension_funds  underinvestments  noise  pay_attention 
may 2014 by jerryking
Why Putin Doesn’t Respect Us - NYTimes.com
MARCH 4, 2014 | NYT |Thomas L. Friedman.

The Soviet Union died because Communism could not provide rising standards of living, and its collapse actually unleashed boundless human energy all across Eastern Europe and Russia. A wise Putin would have redesigned Russia so its vast human talent could take advantage of all that energy. He would be fighting today to get Russia into the European Union, not to keep Ukraine out....I don’t want to go to war with Putin, but it is time we expose his real weakness and our real strength. That, though, requires a long-term strategy — not just fulminating on “Meet the Press.” It requires going after the twin pillars of his regime: oil and gas. Just as the oil glut of the 1980s, partly engineered by the Saudis, brought down global oil prices to a level that helped collapse Soviet Communism, we could do the same today to Putinism by putting the right long-term policies in place. That is by investing in the facilities to liquefy and export our natural gas bounty (provided it is extracted at the highest environmental standards) and making Europe, which gets 30 percent of its gas from Russia, more dependent on us instead. I’d also raise our gasoline tax, put in place a carbon tax and a national renewable energy portfolio standard — all of which would also help lower the global oil price (and make us stronger, with cleaner air, less oil dependence and more innovation).
Crimea  communism  disrespect  long-term  natural_gas  oil_industry  Russia  Soviet_Union  strategic_thinking  Tom_Friedman  Vladimir_Putin  weaknesses 
march 2014 by jerryking
What Machines Can’t Do - NYTimes.com
FEB. 3, 2014 | NYT | David Brooks.
here is what robots can't do -- create art, deep meaning, move our souls, help us to understand and thus operate in the world, inspire deeper thought, care for one another, help the environment where we live
========================================================================
We’re clearly heading into an age of brilliant technology.computers are increasingly going to be able to perform important parts of even mostly cognitive jobs, like picking stocks, diagnosing diseases and granting parole.

As this happens, certain mental skills will become less valuable because computers will take over (e.g. memorization)

what human skills will be more valuable? The age of brilliant machines seems to reward a few traits. First, it rewards enthusiasm, people driven to perform extended bouts of concentration, diving into and trying to make sense of these bottomless information oceans. Second, the era seems to reward people with extended time horizons and strategic discipline. Third, the age seems to reward procedural architects (e.g. Facebook, Twitter, Wikipedia, etc. , people who can design an architecture/platform that allows other people to express ideas or to collaborate. Fourth, people who can organize a decentralized network around a clear question, without letting it dissipate or clump, will have enormous value. Fifth, essentialists will probably be rewarded--the ability to grasp the essence of one thing, and then the essence of some very different thing, and smash them together to create some entirely new thing. Sixth, the computer is the computer. The role of the human is not to be dispassionate, depersonalized or neutral. It is precisely the emotive traits that are rewarded: the voracious lust for understanding, the enthusiasm for work, the ability to grasp the gist, the empathetic sensitivity to what will attract attention and linger in the mind. Unable to compete when it comes to calculation, the best workers will come with heart in hand.
David_Brooks  Erik_Brynjolfsson  career_paths  MIT  emotions  empathy  problem_solving  persuasion  Andrew_McAfee  Communicating_&_Connecting  indispensable  skills  Managing_Your_Career  21st._century  new_graduates  focus  long-term  self-discipline  lateral_thinking  sense-making  platforms 
february 2014 by jerryking
Crystal balling
January 31, 2014 | G&M | Gary Salewicz.

What separates them from the mere mortals of investing? Perspective, for one. If there is a common current to their interviews, it is that you should take the long view, bide your time and invest not with months or even years in mind, but with decades. Second, for all their success, there is a remarkable lack of bluster; all have made mistakes, and they're willing to fess up and tell you about them.
forecasting  investors  long-term  candour  mistakes 
february 2014 by jerryking
Invest like a legend: Peter Thiel
Jan. 30 2014 | The Globe and Mail | Alec Scott.Special to The Globe and Mail.

Is tech investing different from other sorts of investing?

It’s incredibly hard to get people to adopt new tech solutions, and you only get adoption of something if it’s 10 times as good as the next best thing. Amazon had 10 times as many books. PayPal was at least 10 times as fast as cashing a cheque....How do your years of competitive chess-playing help you invest?

Chess champion José Raúl Capablanca said, “In order to improve your game, you must study the endgame before everything else.” Successful businesses have a very long arc. In 2001, we concluded that three-quarters of PayPal’s value would come from 2011 and beyond. The same thing applies to all the big tech companies currently—LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter. Most of their value comes from the 2020s, 2030s and beyond. And so one of the critical questions is, what does the endgame look like, not how they will do in the next month.
Peter_Thiel  endgame  chess  Palantir  start_ups  long-term  market_risk  strategic_thinking  customer_adoption  personal_finance  orders-of-magnitude  Big_Tech  10x 
february 2014 by jerryking
Canada needs the long view, urgently - The Globe and Mail
Kevin Lynch

Contributed to The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Jan. 07 2014

The answer for Canada is not to be found in short-term political fixes, less technological change or reduced globalization. Rather, it lies in a return to a longer-term orientation: more structural policy thinking, a global economic strategy, greater dialogue and co-operation between public and private-sectors, better and more targeted education, and tackling our structural productivity and innovation deficits. It seems rather obvious that, in this changing world, the status quo cannot be a viable long-term strategy for any sector in the Canadian economy, from business to government to education.
strategic_thinking  competitiveness_of_nations  Canada  technological_change  Kevin_Lynch  globalization  long-term  productivity  innovation  P3 
january 2014 by jerryking
The Christie’s Auctioneer Jussi Pylkkanen on Working the Room - NYTimes.com
Interview by ANDREW ROSS SORKIN
Published: January 3, 2014

How much do you think the auctioneer affects sale prices?
It’s very difficult to judge, but I think that a good auctioneer can certainly bring 20 percent to the value of major works of art.

Just as Detroit finally seems to be at the beginning of a revival, it faces the prospect of trying be once again be a great city without a great museum. Imagine New York without the Met, or Chicago without the Art Institute. If the DIA is forced down this road, the very collectors mentioned above, from Asia, Russia, and the Middle East, will snap up a collection that has required 128 years and the generosity and foresight of thousands of people to create, and which would likely never be seen in public again.
Andrew_Sorkin  collectors  art  auctions  Christie's  foresight  long-term  museums  far-sightedness  Detroit  generosity 
january 2014 by jerryking
How to leave your company better off than you found it - The Globe and Mail
VINCE MOLINARO

Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Thursday, Jan. 02 2014

How can you ensure that you are leaving your organization in better shape than when you took the reins? True leaders typically take the following steps:

1. Commit to making things better every single day – in ways that position your organization for both short- and long-term success. Don’t be a bystander and watch problems fester; have the courage to tackle them head on.

2. Guard the interests of the whole organization. Don’t just focus on your own department or self-interests.

3. Try to anticipate threats that can put your organization at risk. Stay plugged into what you hear from customers or employees close to customers. This is often where the early warning signs exist.
4. Build strong relationships both inside and outside your organization.
5. Develop an unyielding commitment to building a strong culture that drives high employee engagement.
6. Develop leaders for the future.
legacies  leadership  RBC  Gord_Nixon  stewardship  companywide  leaders  CEOs  employee_engagement  organizational_culture  leadership_development  relationships  anticipating  threats  thinking_holistically  long-term  short-term  incrementalism  nobystanders  warning_signs 
january 2014 by jerryking
In Search of the Next Big Thing
May 2013 | HBR | Adi Ignatius interviews Marc Andreessen.

Tries to find CEOs who are product innovators, have bandwidth and discipline to become CEO. It is hard to pair those skills if they do not reside in one person. It is easier to train an innovator to become CEO than to train a CEO to become an innovator. Andreessen is counter-intuitive: he went into venture capital precisely because the prior decade to his launch had been the worst decade in the industry's history. He believes in cycles and so thought that 2009 was a good time to launch Andreessen Horowitz... Take/Understand a long view....Build "fortresses"--a company so big, so powerful , so well defended that it can withstand the pressures of going public. Focus on the substance of what your company is all about. Be about the substance....companies that are built to be independent are the most attractive...generally companies need to have at least two years' worth of cash on the balance sheet in case your revenue goes to zero....takes sales and marketing seriously--lots of products are being sold and you need a way to get the word about your company into the public space...companies are worth investing in (it's value)only if its going to be an innovation factory for years to come....We are in the early phases of Andreessen's "Software is Eating the World" thesis....best of companies AH is looking at today are unbelievably good at analytics. Good at the feedback loop created by analyzing data and feeding those number sback into the process in real time, running a continuous improvement loop....The best founders are artists in their domain. They operate instinctively in their industry because they are in touch with every relevant data point. They‘re able to synthesize in their gut a tremendous amount of data—pulling together technology trends, their companies’ capabilities, their competitor's’ activities, market psychology, every conceivable aspect of how you run a company.
Marc_Andreessen  Andreessen_Horowitz  venture_capital  start_ups  vc  HBR  hedge_funds  SOX  IPOs  lean  analytics  lessons_learned  fingerspitzengefühl  contextual_intelligence  counterintuitive  specificity  long-term  software  virtuous_cycles  software_is_eating_the_world  pairs  skills  founders  product-orientated 
december 2013 by jerryking
The long-term benefits of short-term investing - The Globe and Mail
Aug. 27 2013 | The Globe and Mail | FINN POSCHMANN

Markets, in the near term or long, work in the interests of shareholders – so long as they are unfettered by overseers who bet otherwise.

In this sense, short-term investors offer a great example of how markets are supposed to work. And this understanding explains the fact that the share price of rivals typically goes down when a firm in their sector is targeted and why, even if leverage goes up after a buyout, so too does productivity.
private_equity  hedge_funds  myths  short_selling  long-term  short-term  investors 
october 2013 by jerryking
Andy Kessler: Hedge Funders Are All a Little Nuts - WSJ.com
August 27, 2013 | WSJ | by ANDY KESSLER.

Hedge Funders Are All a Little Nuts
Sleepless nights, minds racing, working out both sides of all arguments, second guessing. Stay sane? No gain.

Carl Icahn bought $1.5 billion in Apple shares and tweeted, "We believe the company to be extremely undervalued. Spoke to Tim Cook today. More to come." This is known in the business as talking your book and, predictably, the stock popped to $500. (It's now $488.) Mr. Icahn apparently wants Apple to borrow $150 billion to finance more share buybacks, figuring the stock will go to $625. Maybe, but new products and earnings growth are the only long-term drivers of value, not an impatient investor with a few billion to throw around. Apple should ignore him.

When hedge-fund managers grab onto "sure things" rather than float, it's usually a sign they've lost their touch. Stay thirsty, my friends.

And what's an individual investor to do? Teach yourself how to think ahead of those who are scrambling for ideas. When everyone else is thinking short term, start thinking long term. Embrace ideas when everyone else hates them. Out-Costanza the hedgies.
Andy_Kessler  hedge_funds  contrarians  strategic_thinking  long-term  personal_finance  investors  Seinfeld 
september 2013 by jerryking
What fatal flaw led us so deeply into debt?
October 18, 1997 | Globe & Mail | William Thorsell.

The Unheavenly City by Edward Banfield.

Wisdom has three practical dimensions (with intuition providing a fourth for the truly sage person). The first part of wisdom is knowledge, the second is context based on experience, the third is a long perspective on time......the more forward-looking you are, the higher your social class is. People who live a great deal of their intellectual life in the future derive two great advantages over those who do not: They avoid predictable damage to their interests, and they exploit opportunities that might otherwise be lost to others.

This requires a high tolerance for delayed gratification.

In his engaging book, Future Perfect, Stanley Davis argues that most people are stuck managing the results of things that have already happened....the aftermath. Great leaders manage what has not yet happened....the beforemath. "People who take out life insurance and have home mortgages are managing the beforemath...they are managing the consequences of events that have not yet taken place."
William_Thorsell  books  instant_gratification  delayed_gratification  sophisticated  social_classes  debt  debt_crisis  wisdom  long-term  intuition  far-sightedness  beforemath  anticipating  contextual  forward_looking  foresight  aftermath 
july 2013 by jerryking
Tired of being dumb money? Here’s how to get smart fast
Mar. 29 2013 | The Globe and Mail | DAVID BERMAN.
First, ignore the herd. Retail investors get into trouble because they like to follow the market. They love stocks when they’re expensive and bull markets are in full swing, and loathe stocks when they’re cheap and the bear is growling. Do the opposite: As the saying goes, buy when there is blood in the streets.

Second, accept that you are not Mr. Buffett. Over-confident investors get themselves into trouble because they take on too much risk in the hope of scoring spectacular gains. Instead, diversify and aim for the unspectacular, perhaps with low-cost exchange-traded funds that track a basket of stocks.

Third, think long-term. Retail investors are prone to expect their investments to pay off in a big way immediately – and when they don’t, these investors switch tactics, often with dismal results.
investment_advice  personal_finance  contrarians  long-term  patience  Warren_Buffett  overconfidence  individual_initiative  smart_people  independent_viewpoints  bull_markets  ETFs  low-cost 
march 2013 by jerryking
Carpe Diem Nation - NYTimes.com
February 11, 2013 | NYT | By DAVID BROOKS.

Europeans who settled America gave their lives a slingshot shape. They pulled back so they could shoot forward. They volunteered to live in harsh conditions today so their descendants could live well for centuries. The pioneers who traveled West did the same thing. So has each generation of immigrants — sacrificing the present for the sake of the future.

This slingshot manner of life led to one of those true national clichés:..This future-oriented mentality had practical effects. For decades, government invested heavily in long-range projects like railroads and canals...Today, Americans have inverted this way of thinking. Instead of sacrificing the present for the sake of the future, Americans now sacrifice the future for the sake of the present...Why have Americans lost their devotion to the future? Part of the answer must be cultural. The Great Depression and World War II forced Americans to live with 16 straight years of scarcity. In the years after the war, people decided they’d had enough. There was what one historian called a “renunciation of renunciation.” We’ve now had a few generations raised with this consumption mind-set. There’s less of a sense that life is a partnership among the dead, the living and the unborn, with obligations to those to come....If the president were to propose an agenda for the future, he’d double spending on the National Institutes of Health. He’d approve the Keystone XL pipeline. He’d cut corporate tax rates while adding a progressive consumption tax. He’d take money from Social Security and build Harlem Children’s Zone-type projects across the nation. He’d means test Medicare and use the money to revive state universities and pay down debt.
David_Brooks  future  Obama  Great_Depression  WWII  instant_gratification  intergenerational_rivalry  delayed_gratification  foresight  far-sightedness  forward_looking  sacrifice  Keystone_XL  long-term  social_trust  consumption  the_Greatest_Generation  Carpe_diem  long-range  railroads  canals 
february 2013 by jerryking
Endowments: Ivory-towering infernos
Dec 11th 2008 | The Economist |From the print edition.

As Mr Swensen explains in his influential book, “Pioneering Portfolio Management: An Unconventional Approach to Institutional Investment”, which was published in 2000, the “permanent” endowments of universities (and of some charitable foundations) meant that they could be the ultimate long-term investors, able to ride out market downturns and liquidity droughts.

By investing heavily in illiquid assets, rather than the publicly traded shares and bonds preferred by shorter-term investors, an institution with an unlimited time horizon would earn a substantial illiquidity premium.
Yale  Harvard  endowments  Colleges_&_Universities  books  illiquidity  alternative_investments  private_equity  institutional_investors  long-term 
february 2013 by jerryking
With Software Jobs Migrating to India, Think Long Term - WSJ.com
October 6, 2003 | WSJ | By BOB DAVIS | Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
india  Outsourcing  software  long-term 
january 2013 by jerryking
Britain: Priorities for a pivotal year | The Economist
Nov 21st 2012 | | The Economist from The World In 2013 print edition | Nick Clegg

At a time of great change, Britain must think big and long-term, says Nick Clegg, deputy prime minister and leader of the Liberal Democrats
Nick_Clegg  United_Kingdom  priorities  long-term  chutzpah  thinking_big 
january 2013 by jerryking
Class notes from a course on the age of complexity
Dec. 24, 2012 | The Financial Times p8.|by John Lloyd.

Now some have developed an anxiety about muddling through, and the lack of strategic thinking among leaders in public life.

General Sir David Richards, head of the British armed forces, recently stressed the need for long-range thinking about the world's unpredictability. Conflict in the Middle East, the rise of China, the slowing of Europe, fierce competition for raw materials, demographic shifts, terrorism and international crime are only some of the vast challenges he sees.

The UK public administration select committee, which scrutinises how the government is run, produced a report in April called Strategic Thinking on Government , in which it declared "we have little confidence that government policies are informed by a clear, coherent, strategic approach".
United_Kingdom  strategic_thinking  public_sector  long-range  unpredictability  globalization  Colleges_&_Universities  executive_education  complexity  LSE  long-term 
december 2012 by jerryking
Rachel Carson’s Lessons, 50 Years After ‘Silent Spring’ - NYTimes.com
By NANCY F. KOEHN
Published: October 27, 2012

Rachel Carson, throughout her personal and public struggles, she was an informed spokeswoman for environmental responsibility.

She was a classic introvert who exhibited few of the typical qualities associated with leadership, like charisma and aggressiveness. But as people like Susan Cain, author of “Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World That Can’t Stop Talking,” have pointed out, leadership can come in less obvious forms.... her story is a reminder that one person’s quiet leadership can make a difference.... RACHEL CARSON’S story offers many leadership lessons, including the importance of persistence in pursuing an objective. When I discuss her with business executives, many are struck by her ability to stay focused on goals in the face of obstacles including severe illness.

Another lesson involves the importance of doing thorough research and taking the long view. A sense of context based on hard facts, along with a knowledge of history, is essential to understanding what’s at stake in difficult and uncertain situations. It also confers a sense of authority on the person who has acquired this knowledge.

A third insight concerns the juggling of personal demands and professional ambitions. Carson understood the challenge — and satisfaction — of dealing with our obligations to others even as we follow our professional drive. And she saw that this can rarely be navigated smoothly. For her, and for many executives with whom I have worked, times of great productivity were followed by fallow periods when ambitions had to be put aside for personal reasons.
solo  leadership  environment  cancers  women  non-obvious  trailblazers  books  introverts  contextual  long-term  history 
october 2012 by jerryking
Nine key traits to make the shift from failure to success - The Globe and Mail
HARVEY SCHACHTER

Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Oct. 09 2012

1. Rebounders accept failure: They hate to fail, but they accept it, and try to fail productively, learning from the experience, as the inventive Thomas Edison did with his many failed experiments.

2. Rebounders compartmentalize options: They are often emotional people, with drive and passion. John Bogle, who founded Vanguard Group, was furious when he was pushed out of a previous job and even had revenge fantasies. But he didn’t spend time trying to get even. Rebounders control the emotional fallout of their struggle (i.e. emotional mastery).

3. Rebounders have a bias toward action: After Tammy Duckworth lost both legs when her U.S. military helicopter was shot down in Iraq, her first impulse was to get to work at rehabilitation and her new life. Rebounders keep pushing, keep doing.

4. Rebounders change their minds: They can discard old thinking, give up on long-held dreams, and adjust their ambitions to evolving situations. They don’t cling to ideas that are proving hopeless.

5. Rebounders prepare for things to go wrong: They don’t expect things to go their own way. They are cautious optimists, always aware their plans may go awry.

6. Rebounders are comfortable with discomfort: They are willing to accept hardships and inconveniences as long as they feel they are getting closer to their goal. Singer/songwriter Lucinda Williams could have signed a major recording deal years earlier if she had agreed to make the songs the music companies wanted, but she stayed true to her own vision, even if it meant often barely having the money to pay her rent.

7. Rebounders are willing to wait: They are determined to succeed on their own terms, and can accept that it might take a long time. “But rebounders don’t just wait positively for a lucky break, or do the same thing over and over. They constantly learn and get better, continually improving the likelihood of success until the odds tilt in their favour,” Mr. Newman observes.

8. Rebounders have heroes: Many of the rebounders he met are romantics, seeing their role as in some way historic, and they are entranced by some mentor or historical figure who they want to emulate. Vanguard’s Mr. Bogle, for example, often alluded to the naval battles of Admiral Lord Nelson and named his mutual fund company after his hero’s ship.

9. Rebounders have more than passion: We are told we need passion for success, but rebounders realize it requires more than that. They have a special drive and resilience that allows them to capitalize on their passion.
bouncing_back  resilience  Harvey_Schachter  emotional_mastery  personality_types/traits  ksfs  long-term  patience  preparation  contingency_planning  reflections  self-analysis  self-awareness  thinking_tragically  discomforts  strategic_patience  adaptability  inconveniences  passions  heroes  pragmatism  compartmentalization  action-oriented  hardships  next_play 
october 2012 by jerryking
Post-AIG, Greenberg Drives On - WSJ.com
June 15, 2007 | WSJ | By LIAM PLEVEN.
Mr. Greenberg: It hasn't changed. C.V. Starr & Co. had four [insurance] agencies. We obviously had to find new companies to represent, which we did -- didn't take very long to do that. We've now started another new general agency, in the health field. Then we have a Lloyd's syndicate that we started, and that syndicate also is represented in China. We're in the midst of forming a life- and general-insurance company in Bermuda.

In Starr International, we have an office in Hong Kong, an office in Shanghai and in Beijing, and [we're opening an office] in Russia.

Russia today is a different country than it was five, 10 years ago. The oil-and-gas revenues have changed the economics in Russia. There's more than a trickle-down effect to a middle class. Moscow's probably the most expensive city in the world. Every time I go there, it's more expensive. I may pitch a tent next time.

We started a commercial-real-estate business. We're looking at a consumer-finance business, and we're looking at a residential-mortgage business. When you start something, you're like a magnet. You attract other opportunities.

The vision I have is that we're going to be partly merchant bank and partly still in insurance. What is a merchant bank? A merchant bank, in my definition, is that you don't always invest to create profit like a private-equity firm and liquidate in five or six years. You may keep it in perpetuity, or you may sell it at some time down the road, five, 10, 15, 20 years. There are very few merchant banks left. Most have a quick trigger. I think we can have a longer-term horizon.
Second_Acts  insurance  entrepreneur  AIG  Hank_Greenberg  commercial_real_estate  merchant_banking  long-term 
june 2012 by jerryking
Gingrich's Long Game
April 2006 | The Atlantic | By Ross Douthat

If you trade in big ideas, he adds a moment later, "you have to be a very long-range player."
Newt_Gingrich  CompStat  New_York_City  moonshots  ideas  long-term  long-range 
may 2012 by jerryking
Newt Gingrich wants you to make him run for president
February 5, 2007 | Fortune | Nina Easton.

Has anyone revitalized or created a bright spot in a flat or declining industry?
At the Tempe conference, Gingrich politely listens to such proposals as applying Toyota-style production-control techniques to the health system - and then slices through them with an alternative mantra of competition, deregulation, modernized information systems, and personal responsibility. ...In other words, in Gingrich's world consumer health care should look more like Travelocity...Instead, the Center for Health Transformation offers policy ideas to companies that want to get health-care costs off their backs but oppose government-imposed, universal-health-insurance plans as costly and burdensome. The center's roster of 75 clients is impressive, including insurers Blue Cross & Blue Shield and GE Healthcare, providers like the American Hospital Association, and employers like GM (Charts) and Ford (Charts). Clients pay fees ranging from $10,000 to $200,000 a year....Gingrich's own epiphany about a presidential run dates back three years, when he picked up Harold Holzer's "Lincoln at Cooper Union." The book tells the story of how Lincoln's lengthy 1860 speech in New York City - an intellectually rigorous rebuttal of slavery's legal grounding - wowed the Eastern establishment and transformed a gawky, badly dressed Western politician into a leading presidential candidate. Gingrich saw himself in this story of the underestimated outsider making good, despite the seeming hubris of comparing himself to Lincoln, and it now underpins his unorthodox quest for the presidency...Gingrich also says things like "If you want to shape history, it's useful to actually know history" without a hint of self-consciousness...Of the other Republican contenders for President he says, "We're not in the same business. They are running for the White House. I am trying to change the country."..."My planning horizons are 17 years. I want to give you a sense of scale," he explains, as if helping me focus on his long view of things. "I also do what I think the country needs. I don't operate under personal ambition." ...."There are 3,300 counties, 17,000 elected school boards, 60,000 cities and towns, 14,000 state legislators, 50 governors, and 535 elected federal legislators," he says.
profile  historians  healthcare  lean  books  Six_Sigma  innovation  best_practices  change_agents  long-term  unorthodox  decline  competition  deregulation  information_systems  personal_responsibility  underestimation  outsiders  Abraham_Lincoln  personal_ambition  intellectually_rigorous 
may 2012 by jerryking
UNPRECEDENTED VOLATILITY A HALLMARK OF AGRICULTURE’S NEW AGE
* Have a plan for the future – perhaps a surprise to some, but many farmers don’t have a plan in place that paints a vision for where they want to take their operation over the next 2, 5 and 10 years.
• Have credit in place before it is actually required – it is human nature to leave things to the last minute.
• Implement a sound hedging strategy – in addition to the system of crop insurance in place in this country, there are many ways that Canadian farmers can take actions to manage their risk. Diversifying into new businesses is one example.
• Well-managed risk can pay off – at the same time, taking on some risk that is prudent and ts the risk pro le of the farming operation can pay off handsomely for farmers. In such a volatile and fast paced environment, there are bound to be some buying and selling opportunities that open up. Knowing when to take advantage of them can separate successful farms with those that muddle along.
• Know your costs – many producers have a good sense of how their top line is performing. But it is just as impor-tant to have a good understanding of the cost side of the equation.
• Maintain adequate liquidity and reasonable leverage – in order to mitigate the risks associated with increasing asset prices, it would be prudent for farmers to ensure that they have sufficient liquidity and manageable leverage if they are expanding.
• Use reasonable interest rate assumptions in assessing investment opportunities – even though borrowing costs are unusually low, farmers must be mindful of the fact that this low-rate environment won’t last forever.
agriculture  uncertainty  volatility  farming  liquidity  leverage  hedging  futures_contracts  diversification  new_businesses  risks  risk-management  risk-taking  OPMA  WaudWare  interest_rates  vision  long-term  never_forever  business_planning  credit  costs  anticipating  risk-mitigation  low-interest  cost-consciousness 
may 2012 by jerryking
Lunch with the FT: Zbigniew Brzezinski
January 13, 2012 | FT.com | By Edward Luce.

Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power.

“We [Americans] are too obsessed with today,” Brzezinski continues. “If we slide into a pattern of just thinking about today, we’ll end up reacting to yesterday instead of shaping something more constructive in the world.” By contrast, he says, the Chinese are thinking decades ahead. Alas, Brzezinski says, Obama has so far failed to move into a strategic habit of mind. To a far greater extent than the Chinese, he concedes, Obama has to respond to shifts in public mood. Brzezinski is not very complimentary about American public opinion.

“Americans don’t learn about the world, they don’t study world history, other than American history in a very one-sided fashion, and they don’t study geography,” Brzezinski says. “In that context of widespread ignorance, the ongoing and deliberately fanned fear about the outside world, which is connected with this grandiose war on jihadi terrorism, makes the American public extremely susceptible to extremist appeals.” But surely most Americans are tired of overseas adventures, I say. “There is more scepticism,” Brzezinski concedes. “But the susceptibility to demagoguery is still there.”....Brzezinski lists "Ignorance", as one of America’s six “key vulnerabilities” alongside “mounting debt’, a “flawed financial system”, “decaying national infrastructure”, “widening income inequality”, and “increasingly gridlocked politics”.
Zbigniew_Brzezinski  security_&_intelligence  strategic_thinking  China_rising  China  diplomacy  princelings  America_in_Decline?  threats  vulnerabilities  infrastructure  income_inequality  debt  political_polarization  long-term  partisan_politics  fractured_internally  NSC  ignorance  public_opinion  books  Chinese  instant_gratification  demagoguery  APNSA  gridlocked_politics  Edward_Luce  incurious  financial_system  historical_amnesia 
january 2012 by jerryking
Here’s why Stephen Harper really won
May. 05, 2011 |The Globe and Mail |MARGARET WENTE.

the Conservatives won because they did the sorts of things the Liberals used to do. They built broad coalitions among disparate groups. Take the so-called ethnic vote. When the Liberals courted new Canadians, it was smart. When the Conservatives do it, it’s sleazy. During the campaign, the CBC assembled countless panels of ethnic people to express their disgust at this condescending and divisive tactic. Amazingly, however, ethnic voters seemed glad to have important cabinet ministers show up in their ridings. They liked the focus on stability and a strong economy. Besides, the Liberals hadn’t been around for years.

The Conservatives’ years of efforts paid off spectacularly. To get results like that, you need a long-term strategy, passion, and someone willing to drink 15,000 cups of tea. The Liberals no longer have any of those things.
Margaret_Wente  Stephen_Harper  elections  Conservative_Party  ethnic_communities  long-term 
october 2011 by jerryking
In the Insider Trading War, Market-Beaters Beware - NYTimes.com
Sep 22, 2011 |NYT|ROGER LOWENSTEIN.A problem with the SEC’s
focusing on high-return funds is that it skates over the crucial
distinction between short- & LT investing. Some of the 8,000+ hedge
funds in the US are engaged in rapid-fire trading —trying to outguess
the competition w.r.t disclosures that’ll become public in a week.Some
are obsessed with trying to outguess Wall Street “whisper
numbers”.Absent tips regarding forthcoming news, their managers have no
value added/edge. For investors working longer horizons the picture is
different.Skillful, L.T. investors can make $ without tips, by analyzing
info. that’s already public...Society has an interest in genuine
research (e.g. whether GOOG will be a more dominant biz.)...Hedge fund
hypertrading doesn’t add to economic output--it ratchets up mkt.
volatility...A marked increase in volatility complicates the SEC’s
job...the payoff for trading on insider tips rises as well.Ferreting out
the prescient & the crooked becomes more important.
insider_trading  insider_information  SEC  Roger_Lowenstein  white-collar_crime  Wall_Street  hedge_funds  SAC_Capital  volatility  long-term  investing  personal_payoffs 
september 2011 by jerryking
WSJ: Galleon and the Trouble With Insider Trading
Jan/Feb 2010 | The Corporate Board | Andy Kessler.

Information now travels at the speed of light. The edge to human traders
is mostly gone, arbitraged out by fast computers.
Near-term blips in stocks will always be driven by those with industry
contacts, legal or illegal. The only way to truly beat the market long
term is to use your head, think out long-term trends, figure out where
productivity and therefore wealth is being created in the economy,
and invest alongside it. This might include investing in wireless commerce, gigabit broadband, personalized prescription drugs, oil shale extraction, or electric smart grids that can better allocate power to where it is needed.
— Andy Kessler,
author.
Andy_Kessler  wealth_creation  productivity  productivity_payoffs  trends  JCK  long-term  strategic_thinking  ideas  arbitrage  traders  beat_the_market  insider_trading  Raj_Rajaratnam  power_grid  alpha  commoditization_of_information  broadband  hydraulic_fracturing  personalization  shale_oil  smart_grid 
june 2011 by jerryking
Book review: A High Price - WSJ.com
JUNE 13, 2011 By GABRIEL SCHOENFELD An Antiterror Roadmap:
Entebbe-style derring-do is great, but 'routine, grind-it-out' measures
have been essential to Israel's security...."Israel often blunders from
crisis to crisis without a long-term plan for how to solve the problem
once and for all."
counterterrorism  Israel  terrorism  security_&_intelligence  long-term  book_reviews 
june 2011 by jerryking
How to Succeed in the Age of Going Solo - WSJ.com
FEBRUARY 8, 2010 | Wall Street Journal | By RICHARD
GREENWALD. Anybody can become a consultant. But not everybody does it
well. Here's what you need to know to thrive. (1) Think Long Term.
think in terms of the long haul, preparing for a marathon, not a
sprint.; (2) Join a Network. successful consultants are in a network or
community of consultants. These networks are important sources of new
clients. ; (3) Have Your Own Space; (4) Think Like an Entrepreneur.
Don't drift from project to project. That's a mistake. Have a business
plan or mission statement.
Be known for the work that you do/ don't do. Organizing your business.
Use invoicing software to track billing, don`t mingle personal &
business finances, and keep good records for taxes or expenses. Think of
cash flows, future investments & downtime.
affirmations  howto  solo  freelancing  entrepreneurship  management_consulting  networking  jck  ksfs  long-term  cash_flows  downtime  long-haul 
september 2010 by jerryking
Managing Water as Scarcity Looms - WSJ.com
SEPT. 27, 2010 | WSJ | By GERALDINE AMIEL. Suez
Environnement's CEO Taps Opportunities Amid Escalating Global Shortages;
a Particular Thirst for China. As the world's population grows and
migrates to cities, water shortages are happening in places where
scarcity was unthinkable only 5 yrs ago, such as the Spanish coast,...
London,--is described by the U.K. Environment Agency as "seriously water
stressed." And in March 2009, a report by the WEF said the lack of
water would "soon tear into various parts of the global economic system"
and "start to emerge as a headline geopolitical issue."...``on the U.S.
East Coast, "people are used to having water—they don't think further,
they don't think about future generations." Mr. Chaussade prefers
thinking for the long term. His main hobby is planting trees in his
garden and watching them grow, imagining what people will think of them
in 100 yrs. "The garden must be beautiful when you create it,--It must
remain so when you're gone."
water  scarcity  China  Suez  Veolia  CEOs  smart_grid  desalination  imagination  wastewater-treatment  sensors  HBS  gardening  long-term  far-sightedness  unthinkable  geopolitics 
september 2010 by jerryking
Who Creates the Wealth in Society? - NYTimes.com
May 21, 2010 | New York Times | By UWE E. REINHARDT. From the
comments "Wealth creation requires a set of legal principles and a legal
framework that protect individuals and their property rights. The "who"
is this respect is well-functioning, independent and non-courrupt
judicial system that is able to enforce such rights. This is where
government plays its most significant and valid role; however, in terms
of the size of government in the economy it is hardly
measurable."..."Here, I think he has overlooked the most simple and
fundamental truth about the creation of individual or societal wealth:

Real wealth is created by individuals and societies who are willing to
postpone immediate gratification for longer-term benefit. If everything
produced is immediately consumed, no net wealth is created. If, instead,
more is produced than consumed, not only is wealth created, but so is
the capital needed for future wealth appreciation."
value_creation  wealth_creation  government  delayed_gratification  rule_of_law  justice_system  infrastructure  legal_system  property_rights  institutional_integrity  long-term  instant_gratification  capital_formation  capital_accumulation  indepedent_judiciary 
september 2010 by jerryking
The 15 Minutes that Could Save Five Years
June 16, 2010 | Harvard Business Review | by Michael Schrage.
We're facing the end of retirement as we know it — an emerging
unpleasant reality that will (re)shape the quality of life and standard
of living for billions. we all need to start dealing with it.
Now....Forget the "saving for retirement" shibboleths. Strategically
addressing those 60+ months after age 65 may be the most significant
long-range planning investment in your human capital portfolio....Who
are the 70+ year olds whose presence, energy, and effectiveness might
profitably serve as the benchmarks for your own?
Michael_Schrage  retirement  HBR  personal_finance  long-range  aging  human_capital  role_models  Kauffman_Foundation  Zoomers  long-term  shibboleths  savings  planning  myths  strategic_thinking  JCK  endgame  Second_Acts 
june 2010 by jerryking
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