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jerryking : market_sentiment   2

Ray Dalio and the Market’s Pulse
Sept. 24, 2017 | WSJ | By Andy Kessler

Has Ray Dalio lost the pulse? The founder of the $160 billion hedge fund Bridgewater Associates is all over the place spouting his management philosophy of radical transparency. .....The investment whiz lives and manages by a set of principles that employees have to memorize. ..... “Most problems are potential improvements screaming at you.” Or this reworked cliché: “While most others seem to believe that pain is bad, I believe that pain is required to become stronger.”.....Bridgewater is losing money this year. Through July its flagship fund is down 3%, while the market is up more than 10%. ......The core of investing is quite simple: Determine what everyone else thinks, and then figure out in which direction they are wrong. That’s it. No one tells you what they think. You’ve got to feel it. .....It’s all about figuring out what is priced into a stock right now. That’s the pulse of the market, the collective mind meld aggregated into stock prices. I know from experience this is the hardest part of running a hedge fund. You can find the greatest story ever, but if everyone already knows it, there’s no money to be made..... the pulse changes with each government statistic, each daily ringing of cash registers and satellite images taken of parking lots. That’s why stocks trade every day. Real-world inputs and the drifting pulse drive the psychotic tick of the stock market tape. ....How do you find that pulse? .....

It’s best to survey your own people......Dalio doesn’t care about employees’ opinions or ideas; he just wants to take their pulse to figure out what the market already knows. Or as he puts it: “The biggest mistake most people make is to not see themselves and others objectively.”....Too much capital is often a burden. There are only so many good investment ideas out there, and it’s late in this cycle.....“Truth—more precisely, an accurate understanding of reality—is the essential foundation for any good outcomes.” Here’s a truth: If Bridgewater has lost its mojo, Mr. Dalio would be smart to manage a much smaller pot of money rather than torture his employees.
Andy_Kessler  Ray_Dalio  Bridgewater  hedge_funds  investors  investing  biases  pretense_of_knowledge  principles  transparency  market_sentiment 
september 2017 by jerryking
Hot Commodities
May 2004 | Robb Report Worth |by John Fried.

When you invest in say, copper, you have to determine whether there is too much supply of copper or too little. You have to figure out how many copper mines are being opened and how many are dpelted. Once you uncderstand those dynamics, you invest. If you inves tin the stock of a copper company, you have to look at those samle macro issues as well as corporate fundamentals. You have to worry about management, balance sheets, continuing practices, and how well the board of directors handles its pension plan . You have to worry about the overall mood of the stock market, the U.S. economy, and well as foreign economies. To me, cutting out the middle man is a lot easier....As a savvy commodities investor you must pay attention to the macro fundamentals--supply, demand, inventories--as well as the mood of the market in order to find your sell sign.
Jim_Rogers  commodities  investing  China  water  gold  market_sentiment  pay_attention 
may 2012 by jerryking

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