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8 Muscle Gaining Mistakes - Men Over 40 (FIXED!!) - YouTube
(1) Start with the Warm-up, get body ready to train. Get your heart rate up. Break a sweat.
(2) Focus on building strength. Do so responsibly. Controlled strength is the focus. Commend the weight that you use. Pause reps for bench press and squats. Progressively overloading.
(3) Train the mind-muscle connection. Pursuit of the quality of each repetition. Introduction of joint stability and muscular control.. Now feed more into controlled strength.
(4) How to string quality reps into quality sets and a quality workout? Introduce metabolic training. Lighter weights on exercises and going for the burn (metabolic stress). Get THROUGH the burn.
(5) Train like an athlete. Be scientific, be purposeful. Doing athletic things. E.g. Jumping. Don't be one dimensional.
(6) Boring corrective exercises. Face-pulls.
(7) What type of cardio? Do sparing cardio. Battle ropes, sled push, Farmers carry,
(8) Nutrition and supplementation. Our metabolism changes. Reliance on consistent, high quality nutrition. Be on point with your nutrition. Focus on increasing consistency of diet.
aging  AthleanX  cardiovascular  diets  midlife  mistakes  nutrition  power_of_the_pause  strength_training 
21 days ago by jerryking
The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be
June 17, 2019 | WSJ | by Andy Kessler.

Founded in 1867, the Keuffel & Esser Co. commissioned a study of the future for its 100th anniversary. If you’re of a certain vintage, you might have used a K&E slide rule. Their “visionary” study was a huge dud, missing completely the electronic-calculator boom that came a few years later. They shut down their slide-rule engravers in 1976. As Mark Twain said, “It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” Or was it Niels Bohr? Maybe Yogi Berra?

My father was a proud member of the Book of the Month Club. Bored on a visit home in 1989, I devoured that month’s selection, “Megamistakes” by Baruch College professor Steven Schnaars, where I read about K&E’s study. The book’s message was simple: Don’t be fooled by prevailing opinion, and don’t extend trend lines into the future. Mr. Schnaars chronicles how 1950s jet-age thinking morphed into ’60s dreams of a space-age utopia. A 1966 study by conglomerate TRW forecast manned lunar bases by 1977, autonomous vehicles by 1979 and intelligent robot soldiers by the ’90s. AT&T ’s Picturephone service, ultrasonically cleaned dishes, cheap energy forever, future shock everywhere—all wrong.

Of course, the 1973 oil embargo changed everything. But by the end of the ’70s, expensive oil was considered permanent and the future was about scarcity and energy saving and we’d all be driving small cars with CB radios and living in R. Buckminster Fuller-inspired geodesic domes. General Electric even ramped up production of small refrigerators. Mistakes!Im-82150

Then the ’80s came along. A bull market and cheap oil lifted the ’70s fog, but everyone believed the Japanese would soon rule the world since they were kicking our butts in manufacturing and the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was worth more than all the real estate in California. Personal computers were mere toys. Oh, and the Soviet Union was a world superpower. Megamistakes!

After the ’87 crash and first Iraq war, the prospects for economic growth in the ’90s were dim. Then Netscape and its browser went public in 1995 and we were off to the races again. By 1999 techno-utopia was in full swing, and all you needed was a good name like burnmoney.com to raise millions and be worth kazillions. Gigamistake!

The Nasdaq’s dot-bomb implosion and 9/11 changed the mood quickly. In 2003 I tried to pitch a book about Silicon Valley and Wall Street and was told nobody would care about them ever again and asked if I knew anything about bioterrorism or Islamic fundamentalism. Uh, no. But I wish I knew about house or derivative flipping - that’s what the aughts were about, until the Great Recession. The 2010s were about holding cash, maybe in your mattress, vs. owning stocks. Oops— Apple , Amazon and Microsoft would soon flirt with trillion-dollar valuations. Teramistake?

Mr. Schnaars advised discounting extrapolations, playing down historical precedent, challenging assumptions, and distinguishing fads from growth markets. Easier said than done. The future happens, just not the way most people think. How you pick your investments, your job and even where you live can end up a dead end or the most vibrant upside imaginable. Choose carefully, but as Mr. Schnaars suggested, think for yourself.

Today low interest rates mean risk is on and caution is old-fashioned. Companies sell at 20 times revenues instead of earnings (Note: Beyond Meat is at 43 times its 2019 sales forecast, and Tableau Software recently sold for 16 times its 2018 revenue.) Politically, populism and nationalism have won the day. Internationally, China is the new U.S.S.R. Economically, the future is now. Will any of it last?

For a while, Tesla was valued as if every new car would soon be electric. The 2020s are still blurry, but apparently that doesn’t cloud the pundit class’s clear vision on climate change, drones, autonomous vehicles and the effect of artificial intelligence. We’ll all share cars, bikes, scooters and even pogo sticks. WeWork is valued as if we’ll all share offices. What’s next, communes?

My experience is that people tend to overestimate the absurd, like Elon Musk’s dreams of building a hyperloop and colonizing Mars, and underestimate the mundane, like improvements in messaging and shopping. I’m usually bullish until dreams become hallucinations. Technology develops in S curves: Things start slow, go into hyperbolic growth, and then roll over. That’s why “the singularity”—self-improving, unrestrained artificial intelligence—probably won’t happen. Don’t extend the trend.

The tempests of change blow hard. Reading the prevailing winds, we’re all about to become robot-replaced, drone-delivered-synthetic-meat-eating, augmented-reality-helmet-wearing, bitcoin-spending, fruit-flavored-vaping, neutered democratic socialists chirping “Comrade” and streaming “The Handmaid’s Tale” Season 10, “Dystopia’s Discontents,” on our watches while collecting universal basic income. You don’t need a slide rule to calculate the megamistakes.
Andy_Kessler  forecasting  future  linearity  mistakes  overestimation  predictions  S-curves  straight-lines  underestimation 
july 2019 by jerryking
Past mistakes carry warnings for the future of work
May 21, 2019 | Financial Times | by SARAH O'CONNOR.

* Data can mislead unless combined with grittier insights on the power structures that underpin it.
* William Kempster, a master mason who worked on St Paul's Cathedral in the 18th century, left wage records that helped expose a flaw in our understanding of the past.

It is often said that we should learn from the mistakes of the past. But we can also learn from the mistakes we make about the past. Seemingly smooth data can mislead unless it is combined with a grittier insight into the structures, contracts and power relationships that underpin the numbers. On that score, economists and politicians who want to make sense of today’s labour market have an advantage over historians: it is happening right now, just outside their offices, in all its complexity and messiness. All they have to do is open the door
17th_century  18th_century  builders  contextual  data  datasets  developing_countries  economic_history  economists  freelancing  gig_economy  handwritten  historians  human_cloud_platforms  insights  labour_markets  London  messiness  mistakes  politicians  power_relations  power_structures  record-keeping  United_Kingdom  unstructured_data  wages  white-collar 
may 2019 by jerryking
Inter Ikea’s Torbjorn Loof: making the vision clear
February 3, 2019 | Financial Times | Richard Milne.

Internal politics had supposedly never played much of a role in the tangled web of companies that makes up the world’s largest furniture retailer. But when Inter Ikea, little-known owner of the brand and concept, acquired the product range, design and manufacturing businesses in 2016 from its more famous sister company, Ikea Group, Torbjorn Loof was struck by the infighting.......The 53-year-old is running a franchise system that decides everything: from which products are on offer and what the stores look like, to the famous catalogues and flat-pack design. But rather than use his new-found power and influence, Mr Loof took a different approach..........Mr Loof is now engineering the biggest transformation Ikea has undertaken by changing its famed business model that has brought it so much success. Having giant out-of-town warehouses, where shoppers pick their own furniture and then build it at home, underpinned Ikea’s solid profitability for seven decades.

But now it is looking increasingly at city-centre stores, online shopping, home delivery and assembly, and more radical ideas such as leasing furniture and selling on websites such as Alibaba. Mr Loof says that challenging such a successful status quo is tricky, especially as the company does not have all the answers on what the new retail landscape will look like.....“We made sure that the vision and the purpose were very, very clear. Not spending too much time on what sometimes is in the middle of things — all the strategies and plans, and all of that had to come later.”......Ikea founder Ingvar Kamprad said it was important to be long term and “think about where should we be in 200 years?” The managers smiled at his exaggeration and asked him if that wasn’t too much. “Yes, of course”, he said, “but then you make the short-term plan: that means the next 100 years”.....the toughest tasks is encouraging the entrepreneurship that characterised the company’s early days. He concedes that the decade-long period of growth in the early part of this century stifled Ikea’s creativity and recalls going to see Kamprad a few years ago when sales suddenly hit a bump. “I was a little bit worried. I said to Ingvar: ‘sales are not growing’, and then he looked at me and just smiled and he said: ‘wonderful! Crisis!’ So, there is this kind of [attitude] to love the crisis because the opportunities in the crisis are that you get more creative,” he adds. Ikea has experimented more with what Mr Loof calls the “phygital” — the place where the physical and digital worlds of shopping collide (e.g.an augmented reality app visualization of Ikea furniture in situ at a customer's home, as well as a virtual reality kitchen). ...Ikea will do numerous trials in the next few years: “Even if we would be the best planners, we hire brilliant business analysts, the best strategists, I think we would not make it. So, we have to be the fastest learners . . . daring to test things and make mistakes, but also again correct them.”
CEOs  clarity  Ikea  vision  mistakes  Communicating_&_Connecting  creativity  crisis  cyberphysical  transformational  coopetition  city-centres  Alibaba  leasing  e-commerce  home-assembly  home-delivery  Torbjörn_Lööf 
february 2019 by jerryking
If you want to get ahead, don’t be afraid to get dirty
January 29, 2019 | The Globe and Mail | ROY OSING - SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
PUBLISHED 6 HOURS.

* ACT FAST. When you are confronted with a formidable challenge, make a decision quickly; overanalyzing doesn’t usually lead to success because it squanders your most precious asset – time.Success demands that you act fast and not waste valuable resources by over-complicating the route to a decision.
* HAVE A ‘WHAT IF’ PLAN
Have a contingency plan for when your chosen course of action doesn’t work out the way you intended.
* DON’T CHASE PERFECTION
Embrace imperfection; there is no such thing as a perfect anything.
* FIND DOERS. Find people who have a proven track record of doing things fast.
* PLAY IT UNSAFE. Work outside your comfort zone.
* SHUN THE RULES. Rules exist to make us compliant and fall in with what others do; they are a set of standards imposed by others....Bottom line: Broken rules are the cost of doing messy business.
* FORGET YOUR JOB DESCRIPTION. Job descriptions compartmentalize the activity of an organization; they specify the role we must play and the results we are expected to deliver.
* STAY FOCUSED. Try many things in rapid succession but avoid multitasking. ....Success doesn’t come from juggling several balls. It comes when we are focused on a single outcome and dedicate our heart and soul to seeing it through.
* SCREW UP. Don’t be afraid to make mistakes.
contingency_planning  focus  good_enough  messiness  mistakes  monotasking  risk-taking  speed  Roy_Osing  personal_accomplishments  Plan_B  doers 
january 2019 by jerryking
Canada blunders and dithers its way to a failing grade on China relations - The Globe and Mail
GORDON RITCHIE
SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
PUBLISHED 1 DAY AGO

The stage was set when the World Trade Organization admitted China as a member in 2001. In the intervening years, China has taken extraordinary advantage of the resulting opportunities to flood richer markets with low-cost consumer goods, while importing, borrowing or stealing technologies from more developed countries. Concern is mounting in the Asia-Pacific region that this one-way bargain is unsustainable.
Canada  China  Canada-China_relations  Huawei  missteps  mistakes  predatory_practices  WTO 
january 2019 by jerryking
Ten Lessons from Michael Batnick’s Book ‘Big Mistakes’ – Ivanhoff Capital
The best way for investors to learn from mistakes is to let others make them, then read about it

In his first book, Michael Batnick outlines the big investing and trading mistakes of some of the most successful investors and brightest minds that are known to humankind. Most mistakes revolve around the same themes:
– being overleveraged and building too big positions in assets that were illiquid or suddenly became illiquid;
– venturing outside of expert zone when having to manage a much bigger amount of capital;
– overconfidence and hubris;
– normal mistakes that cannot really be prevented; they are part of the investing process;
– fear of missing out.
lessons_learned  mistakes  investing  investors  overconfidence  books  book_reviews  personal_finance 
june 2018 by jerryking
My top 5 investing lessons after 30 years as an economist
September 25th | The Globe and Mail | DAVID ROSENBERG.

After 30 years of experience as a Street economist, you pick up a lot of learning lessons – especially from the mistakes made along the way. Here are my top five below:

* Don’t put all your eggs in one basket (concentrated portfolios but diversified geographically and across the asset classes);
* There is no such thing as a sure thing (the forecast is just a base case across a continuum of possibilities across a distribution curve);
* Marry your partner, not your forecast – it may not love you back (what gets economists into trouble is lack of humility; admitting you’re wrong is never easy);
* If you don’t have a Plan B, you don’t have a plan. If you are wrong, it is imperative to know in what direction – and delineate the new course of action;
* Anything that can’t last forever, won’t last forever.
concentration_risk  economists  investing  lessons_learned  Plan_B  diversification  Bay_Street  Wall_Street  market_corrections  bear_markets  mistakes  forecasting  economic_cycles  beyondtheU.S.  Gluskin_Sheff  David_Rosenberg  probabilities  humility  contingency_planning  never_forever  asset_classes 
september 2017 by jerryking
Heed the human factor before judging leaders' achievements | Evernote Web
14 January/15 January 2017 | Financial Times | Gillian Tett.

Pointing out mistakes is a legitimate part of healthy journalism and civic debate. But as blaming and fingerpointing start to mount, it's worth remembering that people tend to freeze in a crisis, especially when there is a shortage of information. Hindsight is a wonderful thing for an econometric model or history book, but it downplays the human factor. There is a danger in criticizing others' decisions until you've walked in their shoes.
Gillian_Tett  human_factor  empathy  mistakes  human_errors  criticism  blaming_fingerpointing  hindsight  crisis  information_gaps  immobilize  paralyze  psychology  stress_response 
january 2017 by jerryking
To Be a Great Investor, Worry More About Being Wrong Than Right - MoneyBeat - WSJ
By JASON ZWEIG
Dec 30, 2016

The stunning surprises of 2016 should have taught all of us that the unexpected will happen. To be a good investor, you have to be right much of the time. To be a great investor, you have to recognize how often you may be wrong. Great investors like Warren Buffett practice trying to disprove their investing assumptions to determine whether they are correct.

Techniques to combat these cognitive biases:

Shun peer pressure from social media or the Internet. If you reveal your opinion to a group that has strong views, the sociologist Robert K. Merton has warned, the ensuing debate becomes more “a battle for status” than “a search for truth.” Instead, get a second opinion from one or two people you know and can trust to tell you if they think you are wrong.

Listen for signals you might be off-base. Use Facebook or Twitter not as an amen corner of people who agree with you, but to find alternative viewpoints that could alert you when your strategies are going astray.

Write down your estimates of where the Dow Jones Industrial Average, oil, gold, inflation, interest rates and other key financial indicators will be at the end of 2017. If you don’t know, admit it. Ask your financial advisers to do the same. Next Dec. 31, none of you will be able to say “I knew that would happen” unless that’s what the record shows.

Book reference: Keith Stanovich, Richard West and Maggie Toplak point out in their new book, “The Rationality Quotient,” rational beliefs “must correspond to the way the world is,” not to the way you think the world ought to be.
==================================
Commenter:

What investors need to do is focus on their own investments, their strategies for each particular holding, long-term, income-oriented, speculative, etc. and stick to their plan without being distracted by peers and press looking for big headlines.
Warren_Buffett  biases  confirmation_bias  investors  books  Pablo_Picasso  personal_finance  investing  Jason_Zweig  pretense_of_knowledge  self-awareness  self-analysis  self-reflective  proclivities  warning_signs  signals  second_opinions  peer_pressure  DJIA  assumptions  mistakes  personal_economy  surprises  worrying 
january 2017 by jerryking
Learning From Mistakes - NYTimes.com
MAY 19, 2015
Advertisement

Continue reading the main story

David Brooks
mistakes  history  counterfactual_history  David_Brooks 
may 2015 by jerryking
How to Buy Art: A Beginner’s Cheat Sheet - NYTimes.com
MAY 7, 2015 | NYT| By WILLIAM GRIMES and ROBIN POGREBIN.

EDUCATE YOUR EYE Go see as much as you can — at galleries, museums and art fairs and by trolling online. The more art you see, the more you will develop clear judgment. Knowledge can help put things in context, but expertise isn’t a prerequisite. Marc Glimcher, president of Pace Gallery, says: “Go to a museum first and see what speaks to you. Identify which thread of art history is meaningful to you before heading to the galleries or the auction.”

Photo

THE LONG VIEW Budding collectors shouldn’t just buy what initially captivates them. “Ask yourself how something might look when you know more, how something might look over time,” said Amy Cappellazzo, co-founder of Art Agency, Partners, an art advisory firm. “The best thing to do is put yourself in a position where the first purchase actually challenges you a little — you’re not sure you like something, but you can’t stop looking at it. Imagine your smarter self looking at it in five years.”
auctions  art  artwork  art_galleries  museums  howto  self-education  judgment  Colleges_&_Universities  art_schools  students  contextual  long-term  collectors  collectibles  investing  investment_advice  pitfalls  mistakes 
may 2015 by jerryking
Through the good and very bad, Bill Blair remained himself. We were lucky to have him - The Globe and Mail
MARCUS GEE
The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Apr. 24 2015

The handling of security around 2010's G20 Summit, carding and the police budget are exhibits in the case against the chief and reasons why the police board didn’t renew his contract when it came up last summer.....In the end, there really is only one Bill Blair. Toronto was lucky to have him[???]. He helped make the city a safer place. He ran the police force with integrity and intelligence. He always faced criticism squarely and never shied away from scrutiny of his conduct. He is a decent man who did a hard job exceptionally well.
G20  mistakes  carding  Bill_Blair  Toronto_Police_Service  legacies  Marcus_Gee  Toronto 
april 2015 by jerryking
Negotiating mistakes you should not make - The Globe and Mail
HARVEY SCHACHTER
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Sunday, Oct. 05 2014,
negotiations  Harvey_Schachter  mistakes  howto 
october 2014 by jerryking
What a 94-year-old track star can teach us about aging - The Globe and Mail
BRUCE GRIERSON
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Saturday, Jan. 11 2014

four tips for staying mentally sharp:

Play games

The brain isn’t a muscle, but it works like one in its use-it-or-lose-it dimension. Our brains are way more plastic than we used to think, and a challenged brain can grow new neural connections quite deep into old age. Olga is crazy for Sudoku, the Japanese number game, and she does the hard ones. In pen.

Learn another language

Olga’s Ukranian is a little rusty but it’s there – so she discovered when global interest in her grew and Ukrainian news teams came knocking. A 2013 study by the Institute of Medical Sciences in Hyderabad, India – the largest of its kind to date – found that having a second language delays the onset of dementia by around four-and-a-half years, on average.

Make a mistake, then take notes

To speed up learning, of any skill or subject, we need immediate and specific feedback on our performance. Champion chess and backgammon players promptly review the game they just lost, just as top students promptly review and correct errors. Olga actually happens to have a gene linked to learning from your mistakes. But it’s likely her habits, more than her genes, that are driving the bus here. Very little she does escapes her own immediate and systematic appraisal. In her bowling league, for example, “When I get a strike, I take note of where I was standing and how hard did I throw it,” she says, “and then try to duplicate those conditions.”

Exercise

Better even than mental activity is exercise combined with it. Exercise comprehensively it beats back cognitive decline as we age. Exercise grows the hippocampus, the brain region associated with making and consolidating memories; it’s what you want to lean on when you start misplacing your glasses, or worse.
aging  howto  cognitive_skills  decline  error_correction  human_errors  journaling  lessons_learned  mistakes  postmortems  systematic_approaches 
september 2014 by jerryking
If you ever wondered how math class could help you later in life, here’s your answer - The Globe and Mail
Jun. 18 2014 | The Globe and Mail | ERIN ANDERSSEN

Jordan Ellenberg’s new book, How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking.

In a world brimming with information, math is an important tool to help spot statistical glitches and everyday fallacies, but it’s being lost. “Math is the science of not being wrong about things,” he writes. “Knowing math is like wearing a pair of X-ray specs that reveal hidden structures underneath the messy and chaotic surface of the world.”....Mathematical amateurs have all kinds of reasons to use math. It helps them learn the difference between correlation and causation, to see the flaw in statistics, to spot a sneaky sell.

“Math is the science of not being wrong.” Ellenberg writes. In the real world, it doesn’t just find the right answers – it teaches us to ask the right question in the first place.
mathematics  books  messiness  correlations  anomalies  numeracy  mistakes  sleaze  questions  tools  ratios  asking_the_right_questions  causality  statistics  in_the_real_world 
june 2014 by jerryking
Ten common branding mistakes to avoid - The Globe and Mail
Dan Antonelli

Contributed to The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Apr. 18 2014
branding  mistakes 
april 2014 by jerryking
Crystal balling
January 31, 2014 | G&M | Gary Salewicz.

What separates them from the mere mortals of investing? Perspective, for one. If there is a common current to their interviews, it is that you should take the long view, bide your time and invest not with months or even years in mind, but with decades. Second, for all their success, there is a remarkable lack of bluster; all have made mistakes, and they're willing to fess up and tell you about them.
forecasting  investors  long-term  candour  mistakes 
february 2014 by jerryking
Marc Faber's Biggest Mistake - WSJ.com
Sept. 20, 2013 | WSJ |By Jamie Lee.


Faber also lent an old buddy $50,000 and never saw it again. "When you want to collect, people don't return emails, they don't call back," he said. Lesson learned: He now only makes family-friend loans that are backed by assets. He has done a lot better buying and keeping a host of memorabilia. Faber, who lives in Thailand and races around on motorbikes, began building a stash of Chairman Mao posters, badges and other collectibles in the '70s when Mao was close to death.

Once worth just a few cents each, some of the 330,000 badges he bought are now worth at least $150 apiece. But Faber is in no hurry to sell. "I don't need the money," he says. "It's an unusual collection, and I have a very large office."
collectors  collectibles  high_net_worth  money_management  Marc_Faber  personal_finance  Thailand  Swiss  financiers  mistakes  investors 
december 2013 by jerryking
Five mental mistakes that sabotage investors
Oct. 11 2013 | The Globe and Mail | John Heinzl.

Trying to break even

You buy a stock for $50 and it falls to $45 – and stays there. “I’ll just wait until it gets back to $50 and then I’ll sell it,” you tell yourself. The technical term for this behaviour is “anchoring,” and it’s a problem because the psychological desire to break even could cause you to hang on when there may be better opportunities elsewhere. What you paid for the stock is actually irrelevant; the only thing that matters now are the future prospects for the investment. If the outlook is lousy, you might be better off taking your lumps and moving on. If you still like the company’s prospects, then holding on may indeed make sense.

Focusing on your cost base

This is a closely related concept. You buy a stock for $50, and it rises to $60. Because you have an unrealized capital gain or “cushion” of $10, you feel good about holding on to the stock because a lot has to go wrong before you lose all of your paper profit. But as with the first example, the original price you paid for the stock is irrelevant. It’s history. What matters is where the stock goes from its current price of $60, not whether it stays above your original purchase price.

Recency bias

This is one of the most common traps. You see a stock chart that goes straight up, and you assume the stock will keep rising. Conversely, you see a chart that goes down and assume the losses will continue. Humans are wired to expect things that happened in the past to happen again, but investing is not that simple. In fact, mutual fund studies indicate that many investors underperform the market because they tend to buy near the top and sell near the bottom in the mistaken belief that the recent trend will continue, which it often doesn’t.

Mental accounting

Some investors compartmentalize their money based on its source or its purpose. ...When we use mental accounting, we ignore the fact that a dollar is a dollar; where the money came from shouldn’t influence how we spend it.

Refusing to put dividend stocks inside an RRSP
biases  personal_finance  investors  mistakes  recency_bias  anchoring  psychology  human_errors 
october 2013 by jerryking
Big Data, Big Blunders - WSJ.com
March 8, 2013 | WSJ | By SHIRA OVIDE.
Big Data, Big Blunders
Five mistakes companies make—and how they can avoid them
massive_data_sets  problems  data_scientists  mistakes  howto 
march 2013 by jerryking
Three Mistakes Novice Art Investors Fall Prey To - WSJ.com
February 25, 2013 | WSJ | By DANIEL GRANT.

(1) Buying what's in vogue.
(2) Shooting for the quick profit.
(3) Going it alone.

As art investing has gotten more popular, advisers have sprung up to offer guidance to would-be collectors, weighing the relative quality and importance of an artwork, researching provenance and sales history, and appraising current value.

Advisers, for instance, can help steer you away from second-rate pieces.
collectibles  collectors  art  art_advisory  investing  investment_advice  pitfalls  mistakes  artwork  provenance  second-rate  art_appraisals 
february 2013 by jerryking
Larry Fink: “We need confidence back”
Jan. 24 2013 | The Globe and Mail |

BlackRock is huge. Are you getting opportunities that individual investors are not?

That's such an open-ended question that it's kind of meaningless. Is the sky blue? I have offices worldwide. I talk to clients worldwide. That's information, but it's not inside information. It's knowledge from being an active participant. We are serving our clients better by doing that. Do I have a better understanding of what's going on in the markets than an individual? I would hope so.

What were the biggest lessons investors should have learned from the financial crisis?

There were many of them. There was way too much leverage in the system, and this is one reason that economies still are not fully out of their doldrums. Institutions really didn't have a good handle on their risk in 2008, either. You could argue that, rather than too big to fail, some of them were too big to understand, too big to manage. Also, when all that leverage was sucked out at once, the whole world became correlated. That aggravated things. Hedges that people thought would minimize their exposures did not. It took a lot of liquidity and capital supplied by central banks to steady things.

Look, from an equity investor's perspective, the beauty of the world right now, and the negative, is that there's so much uncertainty, such a lack of confidence.

How would you invest $100,000 right now?

It depends on your age. If you're 22 years old, I'd put all of that into stocks. But that's me. Before I'd even answer that question, I'd ask: Tell me, how neurotic are you? Can you live with short-term losses? Can you accept the need to hold? Is your holding period 10 years, 20 years? Are you frightened of volatility? It's a cardinal sin if we think that one size fits all. And if you're looking at your mobile device every day to see what the markets are doing, to see if your $100,000 is up or down, that's not good.
Laurence_Fink  BlackRock  investing  investment_advice  liquidity  market_intelligence  questions  cash_reserves  lessons_learned  mistakes  idle_funds  confidence  problem_definition  unfair_advantages 
january 2013 by jerryking
The #1 Career Mistake Capable People Make
December 06, 2012 | LinkedIn | Greg McKeown
Greg McKeown
Managing_Your_Career  mistakes 
december 2012 by jerryking
H.P.’s Misstep Shows Risk in the Push for Big Ideas - NYTimes.com
November 21, 2012 | NYT | By QUENTIN HARDY.

The ill-fated marriage of the companies is a lesson for H.P. and other older technology giants as they throw billions at supposedly game-changing acquisitions, trying to gain a foothold in the future.

In that future, smartphones and tablets, connected to cloud-computing data centers, are the essential tools of work and play. Companies rent software over the air, rather than buying it with expensive maintenance contracts.

And vast streams of data are continually analyzed to find new patterns and make predictions about consumer behavior and product design. Autonomy, for instance, makes software that can analyze marketing patterns and advise a company on matters like where it should increase marketing resources.

These forces threaten older businesses, like H.P.’s traditional personal computer and data storage products. Other companies, like Oracle, Microsoft and Cisco, also face pressure. They are all trying to buy the future — and have the cash to do it..... But identifying the next big thing can be difficult, said Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor of management at Yale University. Likely as not, he said, deals like the one for Autonomy have “maybe a 40 percent success, 60 percent failure rate.”

He added, “The odds are against you succeeding, but the odds are also worth taking.”

The real hazard, he said, is in the way companies describe these acquisitions as “natural, inevitable victories.” They should be seen, he said, as “an investment, like in research and development.”
Autonomy  big_bets  breakthroughs  cloud_computing  cultural_clash  failure  game_changers  HP  ideas  M&A  Meg_Whitman  mergers_&_acquisitions  mistakes  missteps  moonshots  Quentin_Hardy  risks  SaaS  subscriptions  success_rates 
november 2012 by jerryking
You Should Have Asked - The Art of Powerful Conversation
No matter what you want from life you need people. It’s people who lead us to our next big adventure, dream job, important sale, long lasting business relationships, and the incredible ideas that shape our lives. They choose to do these things based on the way we make them feel one powerful conversation at a time. After speaking with you, do people feel interesting, important and appreciated? Do they feel connected, empowered and enlightened? Or was it just another moment where two people exchanged words, while missing out on the opportunity of what comes from a blazing dialogue? You Should Have Asked – The Art of Powerful Conversation will transform your daily interactions into moments that will give you greater wisdom and deeper meaning, while building exciting relationships with the people in both your professional and personal life.

Give eye contact. make other people feel as though they are being heard.
Being vulnerable. Telling people how you truly feel. being authentic encourages other people to meet you half-way. This opens the door to powerful conversations (opportunity to talk about something truly meaningful).
(1) Discover something new about the individual.
(2) Allow the person to share something meaningful about their life.
(3) Find out what you have in common.
(4) Make it memorable to that person.
(5) Make yourself likeable and have fun.

ENTER STAGE LEFT:PART TWO QUESTIONING
Part Two Questioning
is the quickest way to get to the core of who a person truly is.It’s the easiest and one of the most effective things you can do to create powerful conversations. Are you ready for the secret? All you have to do is ask questions on the answers you have just been given.

These questions are normal and in fact I use them myself to start a conversation. The problem arrives about one second after the person has answered the Stock Question. After asking a Stock Question, most people make one of two mistakes. The first mistake made is they ask a mediocre follow-up question. The second mistake made is they ask a brand new question entirely.The smallest shift can make the biggest difference. Talk to women about the female orgasm and they will confirm this to be true!
conversations  Communicating_&_Connecting  mistakes  questions  quizzes  second-order  small_talk  5_W’s  Stuart_Knight  small_moves  follow-up_questions 
november 2012 by jerryking
Investing Ideas That Stand Test of Time
April 25, 2000 | WSJ | Jonathan Clements

These days I find I am left with just three core investment ideas:
(1) Financial Success is a Sense of Control
If you ask folks about their financial goals, they will likely offer a laundry list of goods they want to buy or announce they want to accumulate as much money as possible. But in reality,
both goals are a prescription for unhappiness.
Sure it might be nice to purchase everything that catches your fancy. But nobody has unlimited wealth, so a focus on endless consumption inevitably results not in happiness, but in frustration and financial stress. Yeah, it would also be great to have heaps of money. But if all you want is an even bigger pile of cash, you will never be satisfied, because you will never reach your goal. So what should you
shoot for? A far more worthy goal, I believe, is eliminating the anxiety that comes with managing money. You want to reach that sweet spot where you feel your finances are under control, no matter what your standard of living and level of wealth.

(2)Investing is Simple
No doubts about it, there are lots of investments and investment strategies that are mighty complicated. But complexity usually means investors are running the risk of rotten results and Wall Street is getting the chance to charge fat fees. Investing is best when it is simple. In fact, if you want to accumulate a healthy nest egg, there
isn’t much to it. First, you have to save a goodly amount, preferably at least ten percent of your pre-tax annual income. Second, you should consider investing at least half of your portfolio in stocks, even if you are approaching retirement. Third, you should diversify broadly, owning a decent mix of large, small and foreign stocks. Fourth, you should hold down investment costs, including
brokerage commissions, annual fund expenses and taxes. Finally, you should give it time. A little humility also helps. Don’t waste effort — and risk havoc — by trying to pick the next hot stock, identify the next superstar fund manager or guess the market’s next move. Instead, your best bet is to buy and hold a few well-run mutual funds.

(3) We are the enemy
If successful investing is so simple, why do so many people mess up? It isn’t the markets that are the problem, it is the investors.
We make all sorts of mistakes. We fret about the performance of each investment that we own, so we don’t enjoy the benefits of diversification. We are often overly self-confident, which
prompts us to trade too much and bet too heavily on a single stock or market sector. We
extrapolate recent results, leading to excessive exuberance when stocks are rising and unjustified
pessimism when markets decline. We lack self-control, so we don’t save enough.

[All the points made immediately above are analogous to Jason Zweig's article on personal finance & investing. From Benjamin Graham --investing is often portrayed as a battle between you and the markets. Instead, “the investor’s chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself.”

Similarly, Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman wrote in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. [that]evaluating yourself honestly is at least as important as evaluating your investments accurately. If you don’t force yourself to learn your limits as an investor, then it doesn’t matter how much you learn about the markets: Your emotions will be your undoing.... ]

If you are going to truly be a successful and happy investor, it isn’t enough simply to devise
strategies that allow you to meet your investment goals. Your strategies also must give you a
sense of financial control and fit with your risk tolerance, so that you stick with them through the
inevitable market turmoil.
That may mean keeping more of your money in bonds and money-market funds. It could mean
paying for an investment advisor. It might mean scaling back your financial goals and accepting
that the kids won’t be heading to Harvard and that you won’t be able to retire early.
These sorts of choices aren’t foolish. What’s foolish is settling on investment strategies without
considering whether you can see them through.
personal_finance  investing  howto  ideas  goal-setting  Nobel_Prizes  money_management  Jonathan_Clements  financial_literacy  biases  humility  mistakes  self-awareness  self-control  proclivities  overconfidence  financial_planning  delusions  self-delusions  emotions  human_frailties  Jason_Zweig  extrapolations  risk-tolerance  recency  unhappiness  human_errors  bear_markets  sense_of_control  superstars  Daniel_Kahneman 
may 2012 by jerryking
Bubbling Up
January 2005 | Worth | Sergio Zyman.

We changed the formula we had been using for 100 years to give our customers what we thought they wanted: New Coke. We orchestrated a huge launch, received abundant media coverage and were delighted with ourselves until the sales figures rolled in. Within weeks. we realized that we had blundered. Sales tanked and the media turned against us. Seventy-seven days New Coke was born. We made the second-hardest decision in company history: We pulled the plug. What went wrong? The answer was embarrassingly simple: We did not know enough about our customers. We did not even know what motivated them to buy Coke in the first place. Based on that, we fell into the trap of imagining that innovation—abandoning our existing product for a new one would cure our ills. After the debacle, we reached out to consumers, and found that they wanted more than taste when they made purchase. Drinking Coke enabled them to tap into the Coca-Cola experience, to be part of Coke's history and to feel the continuity and stability of the brand. Instead of innovating. we should have renovated. Instead of making a product and hoping people would buy it, we should have asked customers what they wanted and given it to them. As soon as we started listening to them, consumers respondcd, increasing our sales 9 billion to 15 billion cases a year.
contra-innovation  Coca-Cola  Pepsi  market_research  marketing  renovations  growth  CMOs  product_launches  kill_rates  brands  customer_expectations  customer_insights  culling  mistakes  beverages  innovations 
may 2012 by jerryking
Create a Software Demo Presentation That Wows Prospects: 5 Mistakes to Avoid | MarketingSherpa
6 Feb 2007 | Marketing Sherpa | by Peter Cohan

"Most demos take 20 minutes or 40 minutes or -- God help you -- longer to get to the point," says Peter Cohan, Founder and Principal of The Second Derivative, a company that helps organizations such as Ariba and Business Objects improve the success of their business software demos.

Whether you're creating a demo to teach your sales force about a new product or for their use in the field, most marketers fall into the pit of five worst practices that leave viewers snoring.

1. Presenting a linear demo from beginning to end
2. Failing to focus on customer needs
3. Showing feature after feature
4. The one-demo-fits-all practice
5. Death by corporate overview

So, how do you put together a demo that works? Here are some presentation notes from Cohan.
presentations  Communicating_&_Connecting  linearity  marketing  mistakes  one-size-fits-all  sales  salesmanship  salespeople  sales_presentations  William_Cohan 
january 2012 by jerryking
Charlie Rose's Interview with Ray Dalio
October 20, 2011 | Charlie Rose Show | with Ray Dalio.

CHARLIE ROSE: And you always make a point that you know what you don`t know and that`s equally valuable.

RAY DALIO: More valuable. I want to say that -- so this is the whole philosophy. I -- I so, know that I can be wrong; and look, we all should recognize that we can be wrong. And if we recognize that we`re wrong and we worry about being wrong than what we should do is have a thoughtful dialogue....RAY DALIO: So the way I get to success. The way -- it`s not what I know. I`ve acquired some things that I know along the way and they`re helpful.

(CROSSTALK)

CHARLIE ROSE: It is -- it is -- it`s not what you know but it is --

(CROSSTALK)

RAY DALIO: It`s knowing what I don`t know or worrying that I won`t -- that I`ll be wrong that makes me find --

CHARLIE ROSE: Yes.

RAY DALIO: Well, I want people to criticize my point of view -- I want to hold down.

CHARLIE ROSE: Right.

RAY DALIO: Say I have a -- I think this but I may be wrong. And if you can attack what I`m saying -- in other words stress test what I`m saying -- I`ll learn....CHARLIE ROSE: And you have not been precise, and your assumptions are flawed.

RAY DALIO: Oh it`s so essential, right. There`s -- the -- the number one principle at our place is that if something doesn`t make sense to you, you have the right to explore it, to see if it makes sense.

I don`t want people around who do things that they don`t -- they don`t think makes sense because I`m going to have not-thinking people.

(CROSSTALK)

CHARLIE ROSE: Right.

RAY DALIO: So that they have not only the right, they have obligation. Don`t walk away thinking something`s wrong.

CHARLIE ROSE: Failure teaches you more than success?

RAY DALIO: Of course. One of my favorite books is "Einstein`s Mistakes."

CHARLIE ROSE: Right. And because it showed you that even Einstein, the most brilliant person of the century in common judgment made mistakes?

RAY DALIO: The great fallacy of all -- I think of all of mankind practically -- I mean that`s a big statement -- but the great fallacy is that people know more than what they do and there`s a discovery process and so when you look at -- that`s the process for learning.

The process for learning is to say "I don`t know." Like, I`m -- I`m totally comfortable being incompetent. If I -- if I -- I like being incompetent. I don`t mind being an incompetent. If I don`t -- how -- how much can you be competent about?

And so that whole notion of do you like learning? Do you like finding out what`s true and building on it without an ego? And that becomes the problem. How many statements do you listen to people that begin "I think this, I think that," where they should be asking "I wonder."
Ray_Dalio  interviews  truth-clarity  philanthropy  stress-tests  Charlie_Rose  truth-telling  Bridgewater  hedge_funds  deleveraging  organizational_culture  economics  unknowns  pretense_of_knowledge  Albert_Einstein  mistakes 
january 2012 by jerryking
EINSTEIN'S MISTAKES | Hans C. Ohanian
Although Einstein was the greatest genius of the twentieth century, many of his groundbreaking discoveries were blighted by mistakes, ranging from serious errors in mathematics to bad misconceptions in physics and failures to grasp the subtleties of his own creations. This forensic biography dissects Einstein’s scientific mistakes and places them in the context of his turbulent life and times. In lively, accessible prose, Hans C. Ohanian paints a fresh, insightful portrait of the real Einstein at work, in contrast to the uncritical celebrity worship found in many biographies.

Of the approximately 180 original scientific papers that Einstein published in his lifetime, about 40 are infested with mistakes. For instance, Einstein’s first mathematical proof of the famous formula E = mc2 was incomplete and only approximately valid; he struggled with this problem for many years, but he never found a complete proof (better mathematicians did). Einstein was often lured by irrational and mystical inspirations, but his extraordinary intuition about physics permitted him to discover profound truths despite—and sometimes because of—the mistakes he made along the way. He was a sleepwalker: his intuition told him where he needed to go, and he somehow managed to get there without quite knowing how.

As this book persuasively argues, the defining hallmark of Einstein’s genius was not any special mathematical ability but an uncanny talent to use his mistakes as stepping stones to formulate his revolutionary theories.
Albert_Einstein  books  book_reviews  Bridgewater  groundbreaking  hedge_funds  mistakes  Ray_Dalio 
january 2012 by jerryking
Hiring Wrong—And Right
JANUARY 29, 2007| BusinessWeek |By Jack and Suzy Welch

the best way to handle hiring mistakes is to not hire them in the first place. Yes, bringing in the right people is, as noted above, a tough business fraught with pitfalls. But you can really improve your chances if you fight like hell against the three main hiring impulses that most often get managers into trouble.

The first is using your gut. Don't! When you have a big, crucial job opening to fill, it's just too easy to fall in love with a shiny new candidate who is on his best behavior, telling you exactly what you want to hear and looking like the answer to all your prayers. That's why you can never hire alone. Make sure a team coolly analyzes the candidate's credentials and conducts interviews. And by all means, make sure the team includes at least one real hard-nose—the kind of naysayer who is particularly good at sussing out the job fit and sniffing out the phonies.

The second instinct you have to fight is what we call the "recommendation reflex," in which managers rationalize away negative references with excuses like: "Well, our job is different." You should seek out your own references to call, not just the ones provided by the candidate, and force yourself to listen to what they have to tell you even if it ruins the pretty picture you are painting in your head.

Finally, fight the impulse to do all the talking. Yes, you want to sell your job, but not at all costs. In interviews, ask candidates about their last job—and then shut up for a good, long while. As they describe what they liked and what they didn't, you will likely hear much of what you really need to know about fit.

True, you may still make a mistake, but at least it won't be because you rushed. Save the speed for fixing things if they unfortunately go awry.
Jack_Welch  hiring  mistakes  decision_making  Octothorpe_Software  biases  gut_feelings  impulse_control  the_right_people 
october 2011 by jerryking
Wealth Matters - The Rules That Madoff’s Investors Ignored - NYTimes.com
January 6, 2009 | | By PAUL SULLIVAN.

THE 10 PERCENT RULE The saddest Madoff stories are the ones about life savings lost. These were people who had, say, $5 million in one of his funds and now have nothing. Honestly, the people themselves need to bear some responsibility for this. The most basic book on investing will tell you never to put more than 5 or 10 percent into any one investment, particularly one meant to preserve wealth…Having a concentrated stock position when you’re working for a company is sometimes unavoidable. If you were a senior executive at Lehman or Bear Stearns, a part of your bonus was paid in shares, and such restricted stock needs to be held for a period of time, generally two to seven years. Having a concentrated position in other circumstances, however, is foolish. Any responsible wealth manager works to reduce or hedge a person’s concentrated stock position. With Mr. Madoff, investors went the other way and added money year after year. Discipline is key: stick to 10 percent or less and remember that any investment can go bust.
CONSISTENCY IS BAD - Consistency at the highest level isn’t bad; it’s impossible. There are too many variables that inhibit being great on a regular basis.
THE GRAND FALLOON Kurt Vonnegut coined this phrase in “Cat’s Cradle,” and never did it have a more devastating application than in the Madoff scheme. In Vonnegut’s world, a grand falloon was a false association mistaken for friendship — two people from the same town, same university, same company meet somewhere and believe that coincidental connection has significant meaning. It doesn’t, no more so than belonging to the Palm Beach Country Club or the Fifth Avenue Synagogue did for those who used their proximity to Mr. Madoff to coax him into taking their money.
This is a crucial point particularly in opaque investments, from hedge funds to private equity partnerships: just because someone is a good golfer does not mean he should be trusted to invest your money. Private bankers are forever telling their clients not to try to get into someone’s hedge fund just because you enjoyed their conversation on the course — or, worse, want to play with them again. Like taking care of your health, picking an investment adviser should be done with the utmost rigor.
‘DON’T ASK, DON’T TELL’ - Ask questions and don’t assume the person who brings an investment to you has vetted it. Nothing in which you are putting millions of dollars is so wonderful that it cannot withstand scrutiny.
PUT MONEY IN BUCKETS - follow the popular wisdom of private bank investment strategists: divide your money into buckets to insure the money you need to live on will always be safe. Most strategists advise putting your riskiest assets into your philanthropy bucket.
Bernard_Madoff  high_net_worth  fraud  mistakes  opacity  friendships  trustworthiness  diversification  biases  personal_finance  financial_planning  grand_falloon  wealth_management  concentrated_stock_positions  high-risk  philanthropy  due_diligence  passions  passion_investing  impact_investing 
october 2011 by jerryking
Steve Jobs and the Power of Taking the Big Chance - NYTimes.com
By STEVE LOHR
Published: October 8, 2011

DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO DELIGHT CUSTOMERS
GOOD IDEAS TAKE TIME
DON’T DWELL ON MISTAKES.
PASSION COUNTS FOR A LOT
Steve_Jobs  Steve_Lohr  lessons_learned  risk-taking  failure  mistakes  passions  delighting_customers 
october 2011 by jerryking
Serial entrepreneurs profit from past mistakes
Nov. 03, 2010 | Globe and Mail | CATHRYN ATKINSON. While
serial entrepreneurs bring a wealth of knowledge to a start-up in the
same industry, their business skills are applicable across a range of
endeavours.

“I enjoy being able to move between industries,” said Mr. Gustavson.
“There are things you need to learn about specific industries but
customer service is customer service. Whether you’re selling a widget or
foreign exchange, the customer wants to have a positive experience,
have value, and have it delivered on time.”
serial_entrepreneur  serial_entrepreneurship  start_ups  entrepreneur  customer_service  on-time  lessons_learned  mistakes 
november 2010 by jerryking
Irshad Manji: A Muslim Reformer on the Mosque - WSJ.com
AUGUST 26, 2010 | Wall Street Journal | By IRSHAD MANJI. "
Debates across America over Islamic centers and mosques won't soon be
resolved. But this summer's hysteria is giving the upper hand to one
nefarious force: the culture of offense.

Election-year politics, ratings-hungry media and deep personal fear
foment raw emotion. In such an environment, "I'm offended" takes on the
stature of a substantive argument. Too many Americans are mistaking
feeling for thinking. "
tolerance  critical_thinking  Park51  Irshad_Manji  political_correctness  feelings  mistakes 
august 2010 by jerryking
Spillonomics - Underestimating Risk - NYTimes.com
May 31, 2010 |NYT | By DAVID LEONHARDT. The people running BP
did a dreadful job of estimating the true chances of events that seemed
unlikely — and may even have been unlikely — but that would bring
enormous costs....We make two basic — and opposite — types of mistakes.
When an event is difficult to imagine, we tend to underestimate its
likelihood. This is the proverbial black swan...On the other hand, when
an unlikely event is all too easy to imagine, we often go in the
opposite direction and overestimate the odds.
BP  risk-taking  risk-assessment  oil_spills  mistakes  black_swan  underestimation  underpricing  unthinkable  overestimation  dual-consciousness  unimaginable  frequency_and_severity  improbables  disasters  disaster_preparedness  imagination 
june 2010 by jerryking
How to Be a Billionaire: Worry!
Monday, Feb. 05, 2001| TIME | By JOSHUA COOPER RAMO. For
George Soros, the problem is not how to make money. That's easy, he
believes. You do that by spotting mistakes. The problem is the mistakes
themselves. Soros thinks that our history, especially economic history,
is sculpted by blunders. It's a radical proposition, as if you suggested
that Botticelli's best art was the result of paint splatters. But Soros
is insistent: mistakes make history. They also make--and
destroy--fortunes. Soros, who made a fortune looking for and finding
mistakes, worries we are making one now. He picks up on these errors by
listening to his money. These days he doesn't like what he
hears..."George is signal," says a Fed adviser, referring to the high
noise-signal ratio among advice givers to Alan Greenspan.

===================================================
From Farhad Manjoo
Step 1: Worry. If you're an investor, employee, founder, tech journalist or in some other way connected to the tech business, worrying about the bubble is your best defense against the bubble. Worrying keeps you sharp. Worrying keeps magical thinking (i.e. happy talk) at bay. As in the 1990s, the tech industry is pushing grand, society-transforming novelties on the rest of the world. If you're not worried that some of these claims are crazy, you're not paying attention.
====================================================
George_Soros  Joshua_Cooper_Ramo  financial_history  wishful_thinking  Kissinger_Associates  pattern_recognition  patterns  moguls  lessons_learned  mistakes  Bank_of_England  financiers  negative_space  investors  signals  worrying  paranoia  human_errors  economic_history  happy_talk  pay_attention 
october 2009 by jerryking
Five Things I've Learned From Andy Grove - America's Business (usnews.com)
November 06, 2006 01:00 PM ET | Rick Newman

(1) The most enduring power comes from knowledge, not from status.
(2) Knowledge helps you know when it's time to change.
(3) Certainty is deadly.
(4) Fear is highly motivating
(5) Even geniuses make mistakes.
profile  lessons_learned  Intel  Andy_Grove  overconfidence  life_skills  fear  mistakes  uncertainty  pretense_of_knowledge  certainty 
april 2009 by jerryking
McKinsey: What Matters: The heart of risk
23 February 2009 | mckinseydigital | By Peter L. Bernstein

The key question in decision making is, “What happens if I am wrong?”
decision_making  doubt  risk-management  Peter_Bernstein  uncertainty  mistakes  risks  pretense_of_knowledge 
march 2009 by jerryking

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