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jerryking : multiplicative   5

A conversation that translates
June 7, 2012 | The Financial Times pg. 14 | Philip Delves Broughton.
(Pass on to Abdoulaye DIOP)
For global companies, creating an approach to risk that resonates across cultures can be a challenge, writes Philip Delves Broughton

Risk is a risky word. Already prone to misinterpretation among people who share a language and a culture, the difficulties multiply dangerously when it moves across borders.

What a Wall Street trader might define as moderately risky may seem downright insane to a Japanese retail broker; what an oil pipeline engineer in Brazil might characterise as gung-ho may appear overcautious to his revenue-chasing chief executive in London....The greatest pitfalls in managing risk across borders, he says, emerge from assuming too much. When dealing with fellow English speakers, it is easy to imagine that a shared language means shared assumptions - that the English, Americans and Australians think the same thing because they are using the same words.... Tips for managing risk across borders

Context is more important than language. Understand what matters most in the markets where you are doing business. Is it the law, logic or maintaining relationships?

Every word comes with its own "metadata" in different cultures. Be as specific as you can and never assume you have been properly understood without checking for potential misunderstandings.
cultural_assumptions  risks  risk-management  Communicating_&_Connecting  globalization  organizational_culture  transactions  national_identity  Philip_Delves_Broughton  translations  assumptions  misinterpretations  contextual  metadata  specificity  crossborder  cross-cultural  misunderstandings  interpretation  conversations  risk-assessment  words  compounded  risk-perception  multiplicative 
september 2012 by jerryking
To risk or not to risk? Where (and when) should be the question
Sep 3, 2007 |The Globe and Mail pg. B.6 | Daniel F. Muzyka, Glen Donaldson

First, risk can sometimes be asymmetric: bad news being more "bad" than good news is "good". For example, while a business project that goes particularly well might deliver slightly ahead of expectations, a bad project that goes off the rails may far exceed its time and budget...Second, risk is often interconnected: the knee-bone is connected to the shin-bone is connected to the foot-bone.
...Third, risks can be multiplicative, with a series of small risks combining to produce large outcomes....The good news is that advancements in risk management can help produce insight and can deal with some of the risks. One can consider four steps to managing risk: identification, measurement, mitigation, and monitoring.
ProQuest  Daniel_Muzyka  risk-management  insights  large_payoffs  measurements  compounded  interconnections  risk-mitigation  multiplicative  risks  network_risk  asymmetrical  cumulative  risk-assessment  bad_news 
october 2011 by jerryking
Seth's Blog: Information about information
Posted by Seth Godin on July 15, 2010.

information about information. That's what Facebook and Google and Bloomberg do for a living. They create a meta-layer, a world of information about the information itself.

And why is this so valuable? Because it compounds. A tiny head start in access to this information gives you a huge advantage in the stock market. Or in marketing. Or in fundraising.

Many people and organizations are contributing to this mass of data, but few are taking advantage of the opportunity to collate it and present it to people who desperately need it. Think about how much needs to be sorted, compared, updated and presented to people who want to choose or learn or trade on it.

The race to deliver this essential scalable asset isn't over, it's just beginning.
information_flows  Information_Rules  Seth_Godin  data_driven  competingonanalytics  overlay_networks  sorting  metadata  slight_edge  compounded  inequality_of_information  multiplicative  cumulative 
july 2010 by jerryking
Op-Ed Columnist - Drilling for Certainty - NYTimes.com
May 27, 2010 | NYT | By DAVID BROOKS. "...the real issue has
to do with risk assessment. It has to do with the bloody crossroads where complex technical systems meet human psychology...we’ve come to depend on an ever-expanding array of intricate hi-tech systems. These h/w & s/w sys. are the guts of financial markets, energy exploration, space exploration, air travel, defense programs and modern production plants. These sys. which allow us to live as well as we do, are too complex for any single person to understand. (1) people can't
imagine how small failings can compound into catastrophic disasters. (2) people acclimate to risk (3) overconfidence in backup sys. and safety devices. (4) people match complicated technical sys. with complicated governing structures. (5) people tend to spread good news and hide bad news.(6) people in the same field suffer groupthink...Overlooks incentives that distort choices.
David_Brooks  oil_spills  complexity  risk-assessment  cognitive_skills  biases  Malcolm_Gladwell  certainty  overconfidence  psychology  incentives  catastrophes  groupthink  compounded  financial_markets  energy_exploration  space_exploration  air_travel  multiplicative  risk-perception  optimism_bias  risk-acclimatization  Richard_Feynman  cumulative  bad_news 
may 2010 by jerryking
Take Smart Risks
09.21.09 | Wired Magazine | by By William Gurstelle. "Done
artfully and wisely, living dangerously engages our intellect, advances
society, and even makes us happier. It is possible to work consciously
toward joining the "golden Third": Just get in there and start pitching.
As with knife-throwing, unicycle-riding, and whip-handling, one gets
better mainly by practice. Make your choices smart ones. It's not
difficult to discriminate between a good, soul-enriching risk and one
that's just plain nuts."

A comment:

That study of risk takers vs. non risk takers is probably
biased. The random sample of people interviewed most likely didn't
include people that were dead or in prison as a result of the risks they
took.

And it is very true, but sometimes risks are compounding and other times
they are isolated. It's important to distinguish when something that
appears to be isolated is really starting to compound.
category_errors  risk-taking  risks  self-actualization  isolation  compounded  discernment  risk-assessment  dangers  psychology  soul-enriching  practice  dedication  multiplicative  survivor_bias  cumulative 
october 2009 by jerryking

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