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jerryking : next_play   17

‘On to the next’: Masai Ujiri not losing sleep over Kawhi Leonard’s exit - The Globe and Mail
Toronto Raptors president Masai Ujiri says there’s no need for fans to be concerned over the departure of NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. He’s already working on his next plan.
basketball  departures  Kawhi_Leonard  Masai_Ujiri  next_play  Toronto_Raptors 
july 2019 by jerryking
Polaroid. Walkman. Palm Pilot. iPhone?
Jan. 11, 2019 | WSJ | By John D. Stoll.

The iPhone is arguably the most valuable product in the world, representing the backbone of Apple Inc.’s AAPL -0.98% half-trillion-dollar hardware business and undergirding its software-peddling App store. It remains the envy of consumer-product companies world-wide.

If history is any indication, though, America’s favorite handheld device will someday take up residence with the digital camera, the calculator, the pager, Sony’s Walkman and the Palm Pilot in a museum. Although it’s hard to imagine the iPhone dying, change can sneak up rapidly on contraptions that are deeply entrenched in American culture......“Over time, every franchise dies,” said Nick Santhanam, McKinsey’s Americas practice leader in Silicon Valley. “You can innovate on an amazing mousetrap, but if people eventually don’t want a mousetrap, you’re screwed.” Kodak, Polaroid and Sears are all examples from the recent past of companies that held too tightly to an old idea.....Apple, for the better part of the 2000s, was the master of the next big thing: the iPod, the MacBook Air, the iPad, the iPhone. Apple wasn’t always first, but its products were easier to use, thinner, cooler.

With the success of the iPhone since it arrived on the scene, the next big thing has been harder to find. Apple has had no breakthrough on TV, a modest success with its watch, a stumble in music and a lot of speculation concerning its intentions for autonomous cars or creating original programming. Can Apple’s greatest strength could be its biggest weakness?.....Whatever shape it takes, Apple’s evolution will be closely watched if only because reinvention is so hard to pull off. A decade ago, Nokia’s dominance in handheld devices evaporated after executives failed to create a compelling operating system to make their pricey smartphones more user-friendly. Finnish executives have told me on several occasions that Nokia knew it needed to rapidly change, but lacked the urgency and resources to do it....The Model T almost entirely underpinned Ford Motor Co.’s rise a century ago, when the Detroit auto maker owned roughly half of the U.S. car market. ....Both Ford and Microsoft adapted and survived. Iconic vehicles like Ford’s Mustang coupe or F-150 pickup prove companies can live a productive life after the initial hit product fades. Microsoft’s transition to cloud computing with its Azure product, meanwhile, has vaulted the company back near the top of the race for the title of world’s most valuable company.
Apple  change  CPG  decline  Ford  iPhone  Microsoft  Nokia  reinvention  Tim_Cook  inventions  rapid_change  next_play  Polaroid  digital_cameras 
january 2019 by jerryking
Stoics in Silicon Valley learn to manage disappointment
17 Dec. 2016 |Financial Times | Byline: Philip Delves Broughton.
* Stoicism is the new Zen, a rediscovered set of ideas that seem tailor-made for a period of rapid change.
* The Obstacle Is the Way: The Timeless Art of Turning Trials Into Triumph by Ryan Holiday
* Keep moving forward

History will one day tell us more about the meeting this week between Donald Trump and the biggest names in Silicon Valley. We will find out why these usually swagge...
books  disappointment  endurance  Jim_Collins  joyless  MLK  next_play  Philip_Delves_Broughton  rapid_change  Romans  Ryan_Holiday  Silicon_Valley  Stoics  suffering  tough-mindedness  Vietnam_War 
february 2017 by jerryking
Life lessons: Looking back and taking stock - Western Alumni
Life lessons: Looking back and taking stock

by Paul Wells, BA'89

“Young people are educated in many ways,” he wrote, “but they are given relatively little help in understanding how a life develops, how careers and families evolve, what are the common mistakes and the common blessings of modern adulthood.”.....every few months when I sit down to write one of these columns, I do a little stock-taking. And a few times after a major screw-up or a minor triumph I’ve tried to do it in a more formal way. It’s true that just about every time I’ve bet everything on a new direction, it’s worked out better than if I’d stayed put. Once I bet everything and it worked out very badly. But even then, failure made a better life possible.

These are not lessons university teaches us well. Partly that’s because the young so rarely have any interest in learning them. I spent a lot more time at Western trying to figure out how to be successful than I did trying to figure out how to be happy. I figured 'happy' was in the gods’ hands, not mine. Almost everything that followed was accident.

To the extent we can learn how to live a good life, I think that so far, we learn it better from the arts and humanities than from science or even social science. Aristotle and Haydn have helped get me out of more fixes than cell biology did, although to be fair I was a lousy scientist. I’m quite sure it’ll never be possible to know, to three decimal places, how to live life well. Too many variables. But the question is still worth asking.

I’m with the Yale class of ’42. Change and risk have stood me in better stead than stasis and worry ever did. There may be a role for universities in teaching that much, at least.
advice  anti-résumé  chance  Colleges_&_Universities  David_Brooks  failure  happiness  lessons_learned  life_lessons  next_play  no_regrets  Paul_Wells  reflections  risk-taking  success  UWO 
february 2017 by jerryking
9 Affirmations the Most Successful People Repeat Each and Every Day | Inc.com
1. "I treat others the way they want to be treated."
2. "I am ever grateful." Gratitude allows happiness to come into my life. I define and talk about the things I am grateful for on a daily basis. I know that the No. 1 way for me to be happy is to choose to be grateful.
3. "I am accountable." I am reliable. I am responsible. I never blame others. I never make excuses. I take ownership of my successes as well as my mistakes. I know that my own performance is a direct result of what I think and the actions I take.
4. "I believe in myself." When I fail, I learn. My failures are temporary because my perseverance is permanent. I push forward at all times because I know I can succeed. As I continually believe in myself, my confidence increases.
5. "I have high standards." I do not let mediocrity enter my life. I am honest. I do not apologize for striving for excellence. My quality of life is a reflection of my high standards. By living up to my personal high standards, my confidence increases.
6. "I follow my heart." Time is precious, and everyone has something that they are passionate about. (jk: mybestlife) The cost of not following my heart is too great, I am going to live life with no regrets. As I follow my heart, my confidence increases.
7. "I trust my gut." I value my intuition, since it is based on my subconscious mind and conscious mind working in harmony. I know what is true, and I know what I want to be true. I trust my gut feelings, my inner voice. As I trust myself, my confidence increases.
8. "I am resilient." I have overcome many challenges and will overcome many more. The times that are the toughest are the times I learn the most. I never back down. I work hard and I push through. As I act in a resilient manner, my confidence increases.
9. "I help people." I matter because I make a difference. While I may get tired, I am not weary. I share myself and love to serve. By making a difference, my confidence increases.

If we tell ourselves our personal truth enough, it manifests into reality. Our reality and our actions will always match the story we believe.
affirmations  Jeff_Haden  mybestlife  gratitude  accountability  resilience  mediocrity  high-standards  next_play  gut_feelings  serving_others  passions  no_regrets  inner-directed  it's_up_to_me 
april 2016 by jerryking
Ryan Seacrest: The Mogul Next Door - The New York Times
By GUY TREBAYDEC. 4, 2015

In a business organized almost exclusively around access and connections, it is surprising how few people incorporate the fleeting nature of fame into their career calculations or use their moment in the sun to build business opportunities, “Hollywood Game Night” being Exhibit A.

“Show business is what drives the other businesses,” said Mr. Seacrest, a consummate marketer, who looks upon his various day jobs, he said, as vehicles for the next cross-platform opportunity.

“In recent years, I don’t believe I’ve ever done anything on camera or on the microphone without thinking of the back-house opportunities and the next business play,” ....seeing everything I did as a course in the class of what to do next.”......“Ryan is a natural learner, always strategizing, always researching the next opportunity.”
next_play  Ryan_Seacrest  cross-platform  personal_branding  entrepreneur  entertainment  entertainment_industry  Hollywood  synergies  leverage  back-house_opportunities  side_hustles 
january 2016 by jerryking
Canada’s best response: Move forward - The Globe and Mail
WESLEY WARK
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Oct. 22 2014

But the public should not be passive onlookers. The consistent messaging from countries more accustomed to such attacks revolves around a key ingredient: societal resilience. Democratic societies must not get bent out of shape – restoration of normalcy and confidence that ordinary life can continue is key to moving forward and avoiding responses that we may later regret. Catch the perpetrators, apply our tough existing legal sanctions, mourn the victims, learn the lessons, improve and refocus our intelligence efforts, but take a deep breath and practise normalcy. That's the best response.
security_&_intelligence  terrorism  attacks  Ottawa  next_play 
november 2014 by jerryking
Relax
1. Develop your own personal operating system. Carve out and define your own reality, philosophy, values, and interests rather than automatically accepting those of your family, peers, religion, or culture.

2. Begin to let go of the need for validation. Don’t be motivated by the opinions or others or the desire for recognition. Be driven by what is important to you and what you value.

3. Trust your instincts and allow for experimentation. Get to know yourself and discover what you enjoy and find exciting, even if you have to fail a few times.
4. Accept others as they are. Begin letting go of judgments and criticism of others. Focus on people’s strengths rather than their faults. Learn to deal with difficult people without diminishing yourself.

5. Really hear people. Go beyond just listening and understanding. Let people know that you really get them.

6. Take care of unresolved matters in your life. Restore your integrity. Forgive and ask for forgiveness where necessary. Reclaim the energy you have given to these matters.

7. Embrace a healthy lifestyle. Get some form of exercise daily. Eat healthy foods that support your body, not your emotions. Do this because you respect yourself, not to impress others.

8. Cause things to happen. Don’t wait for them. Be a creator, an instigator, a collaborator. Share your enthusiasm.

9. Show people you care. Don’t just talk about it. Show them in ways that are meaningful to them, not you.

10. Require the best of people. See them not only for who they are, but who they can be. Lovingly reflect that vision to them.

11. Ensure your own needs are met. Discern your primary needs, and communicate fully what is important and valuable to you in your relationships. Don’t compromise these to keep peace or hang on.

12. Speak constructively. Use your words to uplift, inspire, motivate, and encourage. Don’t offer “constructive criticism” or subtle digs.

13. Laugh easily. Have a lightness about you. Take life less seriously and choose to find and create fun and joy.

14. Cease gossip. Choose not to talk about others in ways that are openly or subtlety critical. Don’t share information for the feeling of power or intrigue.

15. Make requests, not complaints. If you need something from someone, ask for it directly. Don’t whine or complain to them or others.

16. Handle situations fully. Kindly but clearly deal with negative issues as soon as possible. Don’t tolerate anything if it causes resentments.

17. Be done with arguments. Smile and walk away until healthy communication is possible.

18. Offer help only when asked. Don’t assume that others want you to fix them or that you know best for them. Be available and give help only when asked.

19. Care deeply, but remain detached. Let others know you care deeply about them when they have problems, but don’t get caught up in their problems.

20. See with your heart, not your eyes. Look beyond superficiality when seeing someone. Financial status, appearance, notoriety, all mean nothing. Look for the authentic person inside.

21. Don’t say yes when you mean no. If you mean no, your yes will be harnessed with resentment. Say yes only when your yes is given freely.

22. Let others know you are grateful. Tell them and show them that you feel blessed to have them in your life.

23. Never play the guilt card. Don’t try to manipulate or hurt someone by trying to make them feel bad about their choices, decisions, or actions.

24. Give more than is expected. Don’t over-commit, but freely give more than you promise.

25. Be inter-developmental in your relationships. Don’t be controlling, dependent or co-dependent. Create relationships that are mutually uplifting, reward, and satisfying.

26. Be a big person. Don’t try to take credit, diminish others, or hold back on praise. Offer acknowledgment and power when it is needed and deserved.

27. Be confident enough to be humble. Be able to laugh at yourself, acknowledge your flaws and failures, and accept that they don’t define you.

28. Be open to learning. Don’t flaunt your intelligence or superior knowledge. Recognize that there is always something to learn, even from those who appear “less than.”

29. Be more engaged than engaging. Show your sincere interest in others. Use the word “you” more than “I.” Listen intently and reflect back to others who they are.

30. Give gifts that others want. Not just gifts to impress or that are important to you.

31. Challenge yourself constantly. Don’t settle for mediocre. Don’t languish in past accomplishments. Keep moving forward and exude enthusiasm about possibilities and the actions to make them happen.

32. Detach from adrenaline. Simplify your life enough so you are not rushed, stressed, cluttered, or distracted. Allow yourself time and room to focus.

33. Embrace the incredible power of now. Nothing is more valuable than this moment. Make it the best moment you possibly can right now.

34. Don’t fight the flow. Don’t struggle against people or situations you can’t control. Move effortlessly in a different direction.

35. Keep evolving. Stay on a path of self-improvement and stay alert for opportunities for shifts and growth.
motivations  inspiration  strengths  affirmations  personal_growth  self-improvement  immediacy  simplicity  focus  movingonup  gift_ideas  listening  continuous_learning  humility  praise  relationships  overdeliver  gratitude  sincerity  authenticity  self-awareness  constructive_criticism  foregiveness  values  self-starters  healthy_lifestyles  gossip  self-analysis  self-assessment  self-satisfaction  complacency  personal_energy  span_of_control  disconnecting  rainmaking  individual_initiative  beyond_one's_control  next_play  walking_away 
august 2014 by jerryking
Hard Things You Need To Do To Be Successful - Business Insider
Jan. 14, 2014

You have to make the call you're afraid to make.
You have to get up earlier than you want to get up.
You have to give more than you get in return right away.
You have to care more about others than they care about you.
You have to fight when you are already injured, bloody, and sore.
You have to feel unsure and insecure when playing it safe seems smarter.
You have to lead when no one else is following you yet.
You have to invest in yourself even though no one else is.
You have to look like a fool while you're looking for answers you don't have.
You have to grind out the details when it's easier to shrug them off.
You have to deliver results when making excuses is an option.
You have to search for your own explanations even when you're told to accept the "facts."
You have to make mistakes and look like an idiot.
You have to try and fail and try again.
You have to run faster even though you're out of breath.
You have to be kind to people who have been cruel to you.
You have to meet deadlines that are unreasonable and deliver results that are unparalleled.
You have to be accountable for your actions even when things go wrong.
You have to keep moving towards where you want to be no matter what's in front of you.
You have to do the hard things. The things that no one else is doing. The things that scare you. The things that make you wonder how much longer you can hold on.

Those are the things that define you. Those are the things that make the difference between living a life of mediocrity or outrageous success.

The hard things are the easiest things to avoid. To excuse away. To pretend like they don't apply to you.

The simple truth about how ordinary people accomplish outrageous feats of success is that they do the hard things that smarter, wealthier, more qualified people don't have the courage — or desperation — to do.

Do the hard things. You might be surprised at how amazing you really are.
affirmations  hard_work  hard_truths  howto  indispensable  invest_in_yourself  It's_up_to_me  JCK  ksfs  next_play  playing_it_safe  self-discipline 
january 2014 by jerryking
Learn 'Languages' And You'll Always Land on Your Feet - WSJ.com
October 21, 1997|WSJ | By HAL LANCASTER.

Lesson 1: Learn as many "languages" as possible. Through all this, he learned the value of being a business linguist. He spoke fluent finance, law, investor relations, marketing and brand management.

"It helps your credibility when you can speak the language of other functions," he says.

Lesson 2: Build bridges to other functions.

During his six years at Allied, Mr. Simon had to deal with issues involving the company's toxic-waste cleanups. "We had all these Superfund sites and I had to learn about every one of them," he says.

So he sought out experts in other departments. "I worked a lot with people in strategic planning," he says.

He believed all areas of corporate communications -- media, investor, employee, community -- should be unified, so he spurned job offers that would pigeonhole him and sought training that would broaden him.

Lesson 3: Sometimes you've got to go down to move up.

In 1987, Mr. Simon joined Inspiration Resources, a mining company looking to create a combined media and investor-relations department. "I traded way down in size, but it was a chance to develop more broadly," he says. "It's easier to be a Goliath, but you learn a lot more with the Davids."

Lesson 4: Differentiate yourself by articulating your own philosophy.

When headhunters called, Mr. Simon would discuss the needs of the job, and often recommend someone for the post, even if he wasn't interested himself.

Lesson 5: Don't freeze in the midst of chaos -- act.

Within a year, the banking company was acquired by Fleet Bank and many Natwest people "gave up," Mr. Simon says. But he prepared a three-page summary on public-relations issues confronting the combined banks and requested a meeting with Fleet's vice chairman. The result: He was invited to join the integration team and his employment was extended a year.
next_play  Hal_Lancaster  Managing_Your_Career  indispensable  lessons_learned  mergers_&_acquisitions  M&A  rules_of_the_game  advice  crisis_management  contingency_planning  first_movers  crisis  chaos  stress_response  immobilize  paralyze  bridge-builders  action-oriented  post-deal_integration  creating_valuable_content 
december 2012 by jerryking
When Uncertainty Is A Constant, You Can Still Plan for Surprises
April 7, 1998 | WSJ | By HAL LANCASTER.

one of the few certainties in today's tumultuous business world: About all anyone can expect is the unexpected.

Hal Lancaster answers readers' questions on career issues in Career Corner. Send your questions or comments by e-mail to hlancast@wsj.com .

Between mergers and restructurings, new technology and intensified global competition, "change is accelerating," says Dallas management consultant Price Pritchett, who specializes in change management. "The more change and the faster it comes at us, the easier it is for us to get blindsided."

But isn't the ability to cope with the unexpected genetically coded? "Some people have a high need for structure and don't like to wing it." Still, anyone can get better at dealing with surprises.

Here are some other effective strategies:

* Figure out what you can control.

* Plan tight and play loose. "deep planning," or considering all conceivable scenarios and what-ifs. But won't the unexpected foil the best-laid plans? "The better job we do planning, the better we'll do improvising, because we'll understand the situation better,"

* Develop solutions. In a soon-to-be-released booklet on innovation that he is publishing for clients, Dr. Pritchett draws lessons from the 1997 Mars Pathfinder mission. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory talked about "crafting solutions that were tolerant to the uncertainties" of such a project,

* Separate fact from assumptions.

To make good decisions, you need good information. In turbulent times, Mr. Postons observes, "people get suspicious, they get paranoid and that's when they get frozen."

* Do something.In an environment of high-velocity change, Dr. Pritchett says, remember the perils of passivity. "You have to keep moving forward, knowing that in this blurry, fast-moving world, you're going to have to drive on fog lights much of the time."

Concentrating on a plan of action and lining up others to help can turn despair into accomplishment, Dr. Stoltz says. The strategy, he adds, is "whiner-proof and solution-oriented."
Hal_Lancaster  Managing_Your_Career  uncertainty  adversity  surprises  critical_thinking  managing_change  unexpected  cost_of_inaction  assumptions  change  resilience  tumultuous  constant_change  solutions  solution-finders  accelerated_lifecycles  action_plans  span_of_control  momentum  blindsided  blind_spots  beyond_one's_control  JPL  next_play 
december 2012 by jerryking
Jeff Weiner of LinkedIn, on the ‘Next Play’ Philosophy - NYTimes.com
By ADAM BRYANT
Published: November 10, 2012

Prioritization sounds like such a simple thing, but true prioritization starts with a very difficult question to answer, especially at a company with a portfolio approach: If you could only do one thing, what would it be? And you can’t rationalize the answer, and you can’t attach the one thing to some other things. It’s just the one thing. And I was struck by the clarity and the courage of his conviction. He felt it so deeply, and there wasn’t a person in the audience that day who did not take that with them as a lasting memory.

Q. Are there certain expressions that you find yourself repeating at work?

A. Sure. The first one has essentially become the unofficial mantra of LinkedIn, and it’s not something I came up with. It’s something I read and loved and decided to use. And it’s two words: “next play.”

The person I borrowed it from is Coach K [Mike Krzyzewski] of the Duke Blue Devils. Every time the basketball team goes up and down the court and they complete a sequence, offense or defense, Coach K yells out the exact same thing, every time. He yells out “next play,” because he doesn’t want the team lingering too long on what just took place. He doesn’t want them celebrating that incredible alley-oop dunk, and he doesn’t want them lamenting the fact that the opposing team just stole the ball and had a fast break that led to an easy layup. You can take a moment to reflect on what just happened, and you probably should, but you shouldn’t linger too long on it, and then move on to the next play.
LinkedIn  leadership  CEOs  portfolios  priorities  basketball  defensive_tactics  offensive_tactics  next_play 
november 2012 by jerryking
Nine key traits to make the shift from failure to success - The Globe and Mail
HARVEY SCHACHTER

Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Oct. 09 2012

1. Rebounders accept failure: They hate to fail, but they accept it, and try to fail productively, learning from the experience, as the inventive Thomas Edison did with his many failed experiments.

2. Rebounders compartmentalize options: They are often emotional people, with drive and passion. John Bogle, who founded Vanguard Group, was furious when he was pushed out of a previous job and even had revenge fantasies. But he didn’t spend time trying to get even. Rebounders control the emotional fallout of their struggle (i.e. emotional mastery).

3. Rebounders have a bias toward action: After Tammy Duckworth lost both legs when her U.S. military helicopter was shot down in Iraq, her first impulse was to get to work at rehabilitation and her new life. Rebounders keep pushing, keep doing.

4. Rebounders change their minds: They can discard old thinking, give up on long-held dreams, and adjust their ambitions to evolving situations. They don’t cling to ideas that are proving hopeless.

5. Rebounders prepare for things to go wrong: They don’t expect things to go their own way. They are cautious optimists, always aware their plans may go awry.

6. Rebounders are comfortable with discomfort: They are willing to accept hardships and inconveniences as long as they feel they are getting closer to their goal. Singer/songwriter Lucinda Williams could have signed a major recording deal years earlier if she had agreed to make the songs the music companies wanted, but she stayed true to her own vision, even if it meant often barely having the money to pay her rent.

7. Rebounders are willing to wait: They are determined to succeed on their own terms, and can accept that it might take a long time. “But rebounders don’t just wait positively for a lucky break, or do the same thing over and over. They constantly learn and get better, continually improving the likelihood of success until the odds tilt in their favour,” Mr. Newman observes.

8. Rebounders have heroes: Many of the rebounders he met are romantics, seeing their role as in some way historic, and they are entranced by some mentor or historical figure who they want to emulate. Vanguard’s Mr. Bogle, for example, often alluded to the naval battles of Admiral Lord Nelson and named his mutual fund company after his hero’s ship.

9. Rebounders have more than passion: We are told we need passion for success, but rebounders realize it requires more than that. They have a special drive and resilience that allows them to capitalize on their passion.
bouncing_back  resilience  Harvey_Schachter  emotional_mastery  personality_types/traits  ksfs  long-term  patience  preparation  contingency_planning  reflections  self-analysis  self-awareness  thinking_tragically  discomforts  strategic_patience  adaptability  inconveniences  passions  heroes  pragmatism  compartmentalization  action-oriented  hardships  next_play 
october 2012 by jerryking
Corner Office - The Onion’s C.E.O. - If Plan B Fails, Try C, D or E - Interview - NYTimes.com
May 14, 2010 New York Times | ..This interview with Steve
Hannah, chief executive of The Onion, was conducted and condensed by
Adam Bryant. "Never, ever do anything to deprive a human being of their
dignity in work, in life. Always praise in public and criticize in
private. You might be tempted, for example, when you’re letting someone
go, to say something that would diminish the value of their work. Don’t
ever do that.

And he taught me that when you’re faced with something that’s really
difficult and you think you’re at the end of your tether, there’s always
one more thing you can do to influence the outcome of this situation.
And then after that there’s one more thing. The number or possible
options is only limited by your imagination. “Imagination is enormously
important, enormously important.”
CEOs  interviews  imagination  dignity  next_play  optionality  Plan_B  praise  biographies  deprivations  resourcefulness  arduous 
may 2010 by jerryking
Chicago Reader Blogs: The Sports Page
"The Wall Street Journal doesn't just follow sports. We lead
the way. Sure you might call our sports coverage analytical, insightful
or even forward thinking, but one thing you can't call it is
conventional. When we report on sports, we focus less on what you've
already seen happen and more on what will happen next. We look behind
the scenes. At the big picture. We tell stories you don't expect from a
perspective as unusual as it is engaging. And we show you the shape of
things to come. It's a whole new take on sports. It's sports in the Wall
Street Journal. And it's 5 days a week. Sports coverage has gone pro."
next_play  WSJ  sports  unconventional_thinking  sportscasting  forward_looking  storytelling  interpretative  aftermath  the_big_picture 
june 2009 by jerryking
If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich?
December 27, 2008| Adam Smith, Esq.: An inquiry into the
economics of law firms....| Blog post by Bruce MacEwen
# What are the unspoken assumptions behind this piece?;
# If what the author is saying is correct, what happens next?;
# Does this align with most things we read in the past few months or is
it squarely at odds with the consensus--and then who's right?;
# What are the author's presumed biases, predilections, and
hobbyhorses?; and
# Last and most important--but hardest!--of all, does it spark any new
ideas in your mind? What have you been taking for granted that might be
due for a challenge or an update or a revisionist note?
innovation  lawyers  critical_thinking  Bruce_MacEwen  strategic_thinking  assumptions  smart_people  biases  predilections  questions  aftermath  latent  hidden  insights  ideas  next_play 
march 2009 by jerryking
reportonbusiness.com: Disaster relief
November 28, 2008 at 2:46 PM EST G&M article by DOUG STEINER
Rules for post-disaster investing.
Step 1: Cope and gather new data. Smart people in hurricane-prone areas build defences into their homes and businesses, then watch the weather. Do you do that with your investments?.... Don't invest aimlessly assuming that you'll be able to avoid a crash, then buy at the bottom. I don't know when the next market plunge will happen or how deep it will be, but I'm fortifying my investment castle against disaster by spending less and saving more....Look for new sources of information.
Step 2: Analyze the data. I'm not smart, but I looked at historic data and made a connection-what happens in the U.S. usually happens here, too. We worried enough to sell our house in 2007, but I wasn't disaster-hardened enough to rent, so we bought a smaller house.
Step 3: Consider what country you're in
Step 4: Identify the worst thing that could happen right now. You think Canada's economy is grim? How about the city of Detroit, where the median price of a house or condo dropped to $9,250 (U.S.) in September from $21,250 (U.S.) just a year earlier? Could things get that bad here? Almost certainly not.
Step 5: Act when things stop getting worse (there's an element of "next play" here). Don't wait till they start getting better. If you wait for positive signs, it will be too late. I like hotpads.com, the U.S. real estate search engine with information on foreclosures from RealtyTrac. It lets you swoop across a map of the country like a vulture, looking for distressed properties. I'm not looking in Detroit, but I am interested in Longboat Key, Florida. I'm also combining the online information on foreclosures with updates from a local real estate agent who's desperate for buyers, and who forwards me every property listed in the area.
Step 6: Find out who's ahead of the curve and learn from them. The most interesting financial analysis these days isn't in stock and bond markets-it's in the markets for things like natural disaster insurance. A 2007 study, led by Laurens Bouwer from the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University in Amsterdam (remember that Dutch people living below sea level are keenly interested in floods), includes estimates of the costs of future weather-related disasters. By 2015, potential financial losses from disasters in the world's 10 largest cities will likely climb by up to 88%. Three recommendations: 1) Get more and better data. 2) When adapting to surroundings, take precautions to reduce disaster risk. 3) Find new financial instruments or innovations to spread risks among investors.
Step 7: Invest where the potential returns are highest relative to the risks. Even though stock markets have plunged due to panic, they may not be the most profitable place to put your money in the future. The worst mispricing of assets will almost certainly be in the real estate market, so that's where you may find some of the best bargains. Detroit might turn into a mecca for artists, where $9,000 buys you a house in a neighbourhood that may rebound and thrive. You just have to have the courage to look at the disaster data and act.
ahead_of_the_curve  crisis  dark_side  de-risking  defensive_tactics  disasters  Doug_Steiner  extreme_weather_events  financial_instruments  financial_innovation  first_movers  hacks  historical_data  information_sources  instrumentation_monitoring  investing  lessons_learned  measurements  mispricing  next_play  precaution  risk-sharing  rules_of_the_game  smart_people  thinking_tragically  tips  worst-case 
february 2009 by jerryking

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