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jerryking : price_forecasts   2

What makes Mick Davis stand out -- strong nerves
27 Mar 2007 | The Globe and Mail pg.B.2. | Eric Reguly.

Canadian mining bosses should get out of the office more often...For Canadian (mining CEOs) when the price rises sharply, visions of price collapse immediately fill their heads, and for good reason. The last downward cycle was so brutal that the mining companies were lucky to come out of it alive. They totally misjudged the current cycle, though. The Canadian CEOs should have spent less time on the golf course and more time watching stockpiles of nickel (and copper, zinc and lead) in Shanghai, Mumbai, Taipei and Seoul disappear like beer at Oktoberfest....Xstrata CEO Mick Davis and the intelligence gatherers at Glencore International, the commodities trader that controls 35 per cent of Xstrata, endlessly traipse around the planet to pick up information on reserves and supply and demand. They feed the data into a black box, which rattles and shakes and spits out a range of eye-popping numbers. Then Xstrata runs out and buys nickel companies when nickel prices are outrageously, unsustainably, stupidly high, or so everyone else thinks. Then the company and its shareholders make obscene amounts of money....CVRD and Inco have been spectacularly right, the Canadians spectacularly wrong. The result is a Canadian nickel mining industry with no nickel miners left of any size. Falconbridge, Inco and LionOre have been eradicated as independent, home-grown names. Investors who sold Inco and Falconbridge left fortunes on the table...The Xstrata lads didn't just get smart on price forecasts. They also figured out how to treat the hedge funds: Respect but don't fret about them. The hedgies pump volatility into the system. When commodity prices fall, say, 10 per cent, share prices might fall by double that amount as the hedgies head for the tall grass. As a CEO, you need strong nerves to endure such violent up and down movements. Mr. Davis has strong nerves and it has paid off. Many other mining bosses look at the hedge funds with fear.
CEOs  commodities  commodities_supercycle  Eric_Reguly  Glencore  inventories  lessons_learned  market_intelligence  Mick_Davis  mining  price_forecasts  scuttlebutt  sellout_culture  stockpiles  volatility  Xstrata 
june 2012 by jerryking

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