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jerryking : psychology   51

10,000 Hours with Reid Hoffman: What I Learned | Ben Casnocha
16 Lessons Learned (Among Many!)
1. People are complicated and flawed. Root for their better angels.
2. The best way to get a busy person’s attention: Help them.
3. Keep it simple and move fast w...
lessons_learned  advice  entrepreneurship  culture  psychology  productivity  self-deception  self-delusions  success  thought_experiments  networking  career  via:enochko  Reid_Hoffman  Ben_Casnocha 
august 2018 by jerryking
The Psychology of Money · Collaborative Fund
“Investing is not the study of finance. It’s the study of how people behave with money… It helps, I’ve found, when making money decisions to constantly remind yourself that the purpose of investing is to maximize returns, not minimize boredom. Boring is perfectly fine. Boring is good. If you want to frame this as a strategy, remind yourself: opportunity lives where others aren’t, and others tend to stay away from what’s boring.......few things in money are as valuable as options. The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, and why you want, has infinite ROI.”

The finance industry talks too much about what to do, and not enough about what happens in your head when you try to do it.

This report describes 20 flaws, biases, and causes of bad behavior I’ve seen pop up often when people deal with money.
biases  personal_finance  psychology  boring  optionality  investing 
june 2018 by jerryking
Are you mentally prepared for a cyber attack?
JULY 5, 2017 | FT | by Madhumita Murgia.

“Cyber attacks are not benign. Even when no one suffers physical harm, the opportunity to cause anxiety and stress, instil fear and disrupt everyday life is immense,”.......journalists write about how companies and governments struggle to cope with the fallout from a cyber attack, but the longer-lasting impact on the human psyche has remained largely unexplored. Clearly, the anxiety prompted by cyber attacks is different from that associated with “traditional” acts of terrorism that cause deaths and injury to civilians. .... “Our analysis suggests that the psychological harm of cyber war can affect wellbeing nonetheless.” Identity theft, online threats of personal harm and the disclosure of confidential data such as medical records can cause significant distress........
........Samir Kapuria, a senior executive at Symantec, a global cyber-security company, is at the frontline of damage control, often helping clients after a cyber crime. He admitted that the corporate world was “in a state of urgency” when it came to dealing with the scale and virality of cyber attacks.

“The early 2000s was an era of mass cyber crime, when viruses like Stuxnet were released to disrupt with criminal intent. Today, with attacks like WannaCry and Petya, we are entering the era of intelligence,” says Kapuria, “moving from locks to surveillance to early detection.”
cyber_security  hackers  cyberthreats  malware  cyberattacks  psychology  panic  viruses  security_&_intelligence  Symantec  identity_theft  left_of_the_boom  surveillance  human_psyche  stressful  disaster_preparedness 
may 2018 by jerryking
Boost your sales with tips from Warren Buffett
DECEMBER 18, 2012 | The Globe and Mail | by HARVEY SCHACHTER, SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL.

How to Close a Deal Like Warren Buffett
By Tom Searcy and Henry DeVries
(McGraw-Hill, 217 pages, $24.95)

The authors recommend a process they call "the triples" that will help you make the case for your product or service:

Triple 1: The prospect's three problems

First, find out – and write down – the three biggest problems the prospect faces in the area your product or service can help. This aligns you with the buyer's interests.

Triple 2: Your three-part solution

Now think carefully about how you can solve each problem. As you write it out for the client, remember that generic language such as "improved," "better," and "big difference" are not that compelling. Use actual numbers and refer to specific pressure points to focus on the outcomes your prospect can expect.

Triple 3: Your three references

The third step is to identify at least three references you can share who have experienced similar outcomes when using your products and services. This may be sensitive, given confidentiality and competitive issues. But the authors stress: "The most effective way to get the attention of prospects is to drop the names of others just like them."

The authors urge you to become a student of psychology and develop profiles of members of the prospect's team. Try to determine each person's fears, since those qualms may send your pitch into the ditch. Determine each person's point of view about your solution, as well as any other personal trait or event that might be of importance. At the same time, study the team dynamics, from where people sit around the table to who they defer to.

The most dangerous person will be "the eel." The authors insist that "in every deal, and at every prospect's table, there is always an eel – a person who is against the deal. Always. Eels have a tendency to hang out in the shadows. They are hard to get to, and they usually talk you down when you're not around."

Usually eels are driven by fear that they don't want to acknowledge, so instead they insist they are against the deal on principle. They are dangerous, and must be identified early. Then you can try to co-opt them, taking the eel's ideas and baking them into your proposal.
Harvey_Schachter  deal-making  eels  Warren_Buffett  books  tips  salesmanship  pitches  think_threes  solutions  psychology  references  problems  obstacles  management_consulting  JCK  problem_solving  indispensable  enterprise_clients  aligned_interests 
august 2017 by jerryking
Heed the human factor before judging leaders' achievements | Evernote Web
14 January/15 January 2017 | Financial Times | Gillian Tett.

Pointing out mistakes is a legitimate part of healthy journalism and civic debate. But as blaming and fingerpointing start to mount, it's worth remembering that people tend to freeze in a crisis, especially when there is a shortage of information. Hindsight is a wonderful thing for an econometric model or history book, but it downplays the human factor. There is a danger in criticizing others' decisions until you've walked in their shoes.
Gillian_Tett  human_factor  empathy  mistakes  human_errors  criticism  blaming_fingerpointing  hindsight  crisis  information_gaps  immobilize  paralyze  psychology  stress_response 
january 2017 by jerryking
Emerging markets offer clue for investors in 2017
December 31/January 1 2017 | Financial Times | by Gillian Tett.

Now (people = politicians = capriciousness/alternatively, unpredictable waves of populism) are shaping events, not established party platforms or policy programmes....the pricing of political uncertainty has moved from being an emerging market phenomenon to an emerged market issue....Is there any way for investors to adapt to this new world? ....(1) Start by abandoning the idea that asset values can be predicted by using neat economic models alone. ...investors urgently need to think about the difference between "risk" (i.e. events that can be predicted with a certain probability) and "uncertainty" (i.e. unknown future shocks). Until now, investors in developed markets have tended to focus primarily on risks and assume that these can be priced (and hedged against). But 2017 is likely to produce uncertainty. That cannot be easily priced or hedge--and investors should recognize this. (2) Investor should also embrace "optionality": the only way to prepare for a world of uncertainty is to stay as flexible and diversified as possible. Now is not the time for investors to put all their eggs in one basket, or bet on just one asset class. Nor is it time for businesses to be locked into rigid business plans: political and geopolitical upheaval could strike almost anywhere. (3) If 2017 does deliver more risk and uncertainty, expect financial markets to be "skittish" about "news" of all types, and not just economic....Bad news for those who despise market volatility (expectation: we're in for volatility like we've never seen before)....Uncertainty can deliver huge opportunity alongside risks..."good" surprises....Surviving 2017 in the developed economies requires that investors use tools beyond those found in the realm of economics: psychology, sociology and political science. Also, talk to successful emerging market investors to find out how they practice their craft.
concentration_risk  Gillian_Tett  emerging_markets  political_risk  unpredictability  Brexit  investors  Donald_Trump  uncertainty  risks  optionality  geopolitics  financial_markets  politicians  volatility  tools  economics  psychology  sociology  political_science  FT  institutions  rule_of_law  Gary_Cohn  populism  indicators  human_factor  assets  asset_values  asset_classes  diversification  dislocations  bad_news 
january 2017 by jerryking
The Confidence Gap
MAY 2014 ISSUE | The Atlantic | Katty Kay and Claire Shipman
gender_gap  self-confidence  psychology  women  workplaces 
may 2015 by jerryking
Fareed Zakaria: ‘We are meant to be engaged with the big questions’ - The Globe and Mail
RUDYARD GRIFFITHS
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Apr. 17 2015

Q: How is your defence of a liberal-arts education more than nostalgia for a bygone era of higher learning, now out of sync with today’s hyper-competitive, skills-based economies?

...what’s happening in advanced manufacturing. In almost every industry, basic production is getting commoditized. It’s becoming routine and simple, and most everything we consume, to put it bluntly, can be made by a machine or a factory worker. You can manufacture a $30 sneaker anywhere in the world but, to sell it for $300, there has to be a story around it, there has to be beautiful design, there has to be interesting marketing; you have to understand social media....because product[s]stand out only if you understand how human beings use technology....Mark Zuckerberg says that Facebook is more about psychology and sociology, two liberal arts, than technology...a liberal education provides you with a rounded education in every sense of the word. It teaches you how to write, which I think is the most important aspect, because you learn how to think. It teaches you how to learn. These are soft skills but they’re not lesser skills.
liberal_arts  humanities  Fareed_Zakaria  Rudyard_Griffiths  social_media  Mark_Zuckerberg  education  civics  psychology  sociology  soft_skills  thinking  design  product_design  Daniel_Pink  UX 
april 2015 by jerryking
The Biology of Risk - NYTimes.com
By JOHN COATES JUNE 7, 2014

What is it about risk taking that so eludes our understanding, and our control?

Part of the problem is that we tend to view financial risk taking as a purely intellectual activity. But this view is incomplete. Risk is more than an intellectual puzzle — it is a profoundly physical experience, and it involves your body...Risk by its very nature threatens to hurt you, so when confronted by it your body and brain, under the influence of the stress response, unite as a single functioning unit....The state of your body predicts your appetite for financial risk just as it predicts an athlete’s performance.

If we understand how a person’s body influences risk taking, we can learn how to better manage risk takers. We can also recognize that mistakes governments have made have contributed to excessive risk taking.

Consider the most important risk manager of them all — the Federal Reserve. ...Uncertainty over the timing of something unpleasant often causes a greater challenge response than the unpleasant thing itself. Sometimes it is more stressful not knowing when or if you are going to be fired than actually being fired. Why? Because the challenge response, like any good defense mechanism, anticipates; it is a metabolic preparation for the unknown....Most models in economics and finance assume that risk preferences are a stable trait, much like your height. But this assumption, as our studies suggest, is misleading. Humans are designed with shifting risk preferences. They are an integral part of our response to stress, or challenge....One such opportunity is a brief spike in market volatility, for this presents a chance to make money. But if volatility rises for a long period, the prolonged uncertainty leads us to subconsciously conclude that we no longer understand what is happening and then cortisol scales back our risk taking. In this way our risk taking calibrates to the amount of uncertainty and threat in the environment.

Continue reading the main story
Under conditions of extreme volatility, such as a crisis, traders, investors and indeed whole companies can freeze up in risk aversion, and this helps push a bear market into a crash. Unfortunately, this risk aversion occurs at just the wrong time, for these crises are precisely when markets offer the most attractive opportunities, and when the economy most needs people to take risks. The real challenge for Wall Street, I now believe, is not so much fear and greed as it is these silent and large shifts in risk appetite....As uncertainty in fed funds declined, one of the most powerful brakes on excessive risk taking in stocks was released....There are times when the Fed does need to calm the markets. After the credit crisis, it did just that. But when the economy and market are strong, as they were during the dot-com and housing bubbles, what, pray tell, is the point of calming the markets? Of raising rates in a predictable fashion? If you think the markets are complacent, then unnerve them. Over the past 20 years the Fed may have perfected the art of reassuring the markets, but it has lost the power to scare. And that means stock markets more easily overshoot, and then collapse.

CONTINUE READING THE MAIN STORY
120
COMMENTS
The Fed could dampen this cycle. It has, in interest rate policy, not one tool but two: the level of rates and the uncertainty of rates. Given the sensitivity of risk preferences to uncertainty, the Fed could use policy uncertainty and a higher volatility of funds to selectively target risk taking in the financial community....IT may seem counterintuitive to use uncertainty to quell volatility. But a small amount of uncertainty surrounding short-term interest rates may act much like a vaccine immunizing the stock market against bubbles. More generally, if we view humans as embodied brains instead of disembodied minds, we can see that the risk-taking pathologies found in traders also lead chief executives, trial lawyers, oil executives and others to swing from excessive and ill-conceived risks to petrified risk aversion. It will also teach us to manage these risk takers, much as sport physiologists manage athletes, to stabilize their risk taking and to lower stress.
Wall_Street  risks  risk-management  risk-taking  uncertainty  U.S._Federal_Reserve  bubbles  volatility  behavioural_economics  risk-preferences  risk-aversion  biology  psychology  interest_rates  emotions  human_experience  human_behavior  human_frailties  human_psyche  financial_risk  signaling  stress_response  market_crash  immobilize  paralyze  bear_markets  policy_tools  physiological_response  risk-appetite  unpredictability  physical_experiences  calibration 
june 2014 by jerryking
Honesty That Benefits All
November 11, 2013 | NYT | By DOUG STEINER.

Headlines highlight the bad deeds of players in financial markets: insider trading scandals, traders colluding on interest rate manipulation, executives backdate options, etc....One tool of tackling problematic behavior is to rely on behavioral economics (i.e. traditional economics' assumption — that everyone acts rationally when making decisions — is wrong).

Behavioral economists combine the social psychology of human interactions with the thought processes involved in making economic decisions. They predict and explain how people use faulty logic in building a framework for making decisions. Then they figure out how to make people behave properly by inserting new triggers for better behavior..... people can justify lying if it’s “just a little bit.”(e.g. customers underreporting annual miles driven when filling out their car insurance audit forms, or their income when filling out tax returns). ...adding "morality reminders" (e.g. asking customers to sign forms attesting to the accuracy of their reports at the top of a page, instead of the bottom)....can change behavior, ... minor, even imperceptible changes to workflow can significantly affect honesty....human decisions can be influenced with small suggestions — say, a reminder that “over 99 percent of people truthfully answer these questions.” Or a group might be reminded of a collective cause-and-effect. (“You and your colleagues will not be eligible for bonuses if any of you engage in illegal behavior.”)

Employing similar behavioral psychology in financial transactions can discourage bad actions. Some examples:

■ Getting legal advice: .... Showing lawyers the profound influence they have on trading action might dissuade them from endorsing or seeming to endorse questionable decisions.
■ Making the costs clear to clients: Modern technology allows firms to automatically trade against clients who are unaware of the practice or oblivious to it. Clients generally lose money on these trades. Such actions are legal, even if they’re unseemly. This type of behavior has to be defined as immoral within the industry, or it won’t be long before it is made illegal
■ Setting the right tone:

...the financial crisis of 2008 showed that risk perception and reality differed widely. Efforts to use social psychology to change behavior are resulting in two changes at the same time.

The first is a change in the general perception of business risk, and how much risk a firm should assume to make returns to shareholders. The second is more important and more controllable. It involves personal perceptions of how much risk they should take when, say, trading securities, to impress their bosses and presumably get a larger bonus.
Doug_Steiner  behavioural_economics  honesty  financial_markets  financial_services  behavioral_change  risk-assessment  risk-perception  personal_risk  psychology 
january 2014 by jerryking
Pulling More Meaning from Big Data
August 2013 | Retail Leader | By Ed Avis

"A.G. Lafley [Procter & Gamble's CEO] spoke of the two moments of truth," says John Ross, president of Inmar Analytics based in Winston-Salem, N.C. "The first occurs when a consumer buys a product, and the second when they use it. Much of the data today is about orchestrating and understanding those two moments. But two additional moments of truth are emerging to bookend Lafley's. One occurs when a consumer is planning to make a purchase. The other happens following use, when the consumer talks about his or her experience with the product. All of these activities leave a 'data wake' that describes how the consumer is moving down the path to purchase." (jk: going to assume that data wake = exhaust data).

Like most consumer packaged goods companies, Procter & Gamble relies on data to determine what consumers are looking for. "Consumer insight is at the core of our business model. We approach every brand we make by asking the question, 'What do people really need and want from this product? What does this mean to their lives?' Let me be clear – this is not casual observation. We employ teams of behavioral scientists, researchers, psychologists, even anthropologists to uncover true insight based on intensive research and exploration," said Marc Pritchard, P&G's global marketing and brand building officer, speaking at the Association of National Advertisers' 2012 Annual Conference....Most firms haven't advanced beyond localized analytics and don't fully capitalize on the existing data they have at hand – such as POS data, loyalty club data and social media traffic – according to a 2012 Deloitte study for the Grocery Manufacturers Association.
massive_data_sets  Sobeys  grocery  supermarkets  Safeway  P&G  A.G._Lafley  Kroger  point-of-sale  loyalty_management  customer_insights  insights  CPG  exhaust_data  psychologists  psychology  anthropologists  anthropology  ethnography  behavioural_science  hiring-a-product-to-do-a-specific-job  data  information_sources  moments  moments_of_truth 
december 2013 by jerryking
Five mental mistakes that sabotage investors
Oct. 11 2013 | The Globe and Mail | John Heinzl.

Trying to break even

You buy a stock for $50 and it falls to $45 – and stays there. “I’ll just wait until it gets back to $50 and then I’ll sell it,” you tell yourself. The technical term for this behaviour is “anchoring,” and it’s a problem because the psychological desire to break even could cause you to hang on when there may be better opportunities elsewhere. What you paid for the stock is actually irrelevant; the only thing that matters now are the future prospects for the investment. If the outlook is lousy, you might be better off taking your lumps and moving on. If you still like the company’s prospects, then holding on may indeed make sense.

Focusing on your cost base

This is a closely related concept. You buy a stock for $50, and it rises to $60. Because you have an unrealized capital gain or “cushion” of $10, you feel good about holding on to the stock because a lot has to go wrong before you lose all of your paper profit. But as with the first example, the original price you paid for the stock is irrelevant. It’s history. What matters is where the stock goes from its current price of $60, not whether it stays above your original purchase price.

Recency bias

This is one of the most common traps. You see a stock chart that goes straight up, and you assume the stock will keep rising. Conversely, you see a chart that goes down and assume the losses will continue. Humans are wired to expect things that happened in the past to happen again, but investing is not that simple. In fact, mutual fund studies indicate that many investors underperform the market because they tend to buy near the top and sell near the bottom in the mistaken belief that the recent trend will continue, which it often doesn’t.

Mental accounting

Some investors compartmentalize their money based on its source or its purpose. ...When we use mental accounting, we ignore the fact that a dollar is a dollar; where the money came from shouldn’t influence how we spend it.

Refusing to put dividend stocks inside an RRSP
biases  personal_finance  investors  mistakes  recency_bias  anchoring  psychology  human_errors 
october 2013 by jerryking
The agonies of too much choice
January 6, 2006 | Financial Times | by Robert Matthews.

Most people are easily overwhelmed by variety. Robert Matthews explores how this affects decisions from healthcare to mobile phones
The more options that were offered, the higher the probability of people avoiding complexity by walking away.....the level of choice offered to consumers should be tailored to their level of expertise, to reduce the risk that they deal with the complexity by walking away.
decision_making  psychology  choices  abundance  overwhelmed 
february 2013 by jerryking
The Education of a Financial Columnist
November 17, 1998 | Wall Street Journal pg. C1 | Jonathan Clements

* Investing is 90% emotional
* Without good savings habits, there is nothing
* You shouldn't invest in a vacuum --non-financial decisions (e.g. about one's health or relationships) can have a financial impact
* There are no gurus
* Churn and get burned
* Diversification is a fair-weather friend
* Risk is in the eye of the beholder
personal_finance  investing  economizing  diversification  Jonathan_Clements  habits  churn  savings  psychology  risk-preferences  risks 
december 2012 by jerryking
Why men can't – and shouldn't – stop staring at women - The Globe and Mail
ian brown
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Mar. 23, 2012
Ian_Brown  hotties  psychology  women 
march 2012 by jerryking
I advise the families of kidnap victims
20 Aug. 2011 | Financial Times pg. 2. | Sarah Duguid.

The kidnap and ransom industry, or K&R, is traditionally made up of three components: a security team, an underwriter and a broker. It was a few years after my interview that I realised that I could add a fourth dimension: psychology.

Kidnap is a uniquely human crime that relies on the fact that we are social -animals. It's immensely traumatic for the victim to be isolated, and their family -suffers too. I could see a gap in the market: if companies were prepared to pay for physical security for their employees, they would be willing to pay for psychological support as well. So, I called some brokers at the company where I failed The Wait and told them my idea. They loved it, and they took me on as a sub-contractor.
career_paths  security_&_intelligence  think_threes  JCK  psychologists  underwriting  psychology  kidnappings 
january 2012 by jerryking
You probably think you know all about self-delusion
Oct. 27, 2011 | G&M | Tralee Pearce.

David McRaney new book, You Are Not So Smart, is a romp through some of the major findings in the field of psychology aimed at pointing out the self-delusions most of us harbour but aren’t humble enough to notice....the granddaddy of self-delusions?

Confirmation bias holds everything together. Thinking your opinions are the result of objective analysis, when they’re not. It flavours our unbreakable belief that our behaviour follows from attitude, when actually our attitudes follow from our behaviours. We like to make up stories. But we’re unreliable narrators.
psychology  delusions  books  cognitive_skills  confirmation_bias  self-delusions  self-criticism  biases  behaviours  psychologists 
october 2011 by jerryking
New urban design plays a heady game of risk
Mar 12, 2005 | The Globe and Mail pg. F.3|
Doug Saunders.

The slogan of the new movement that is overtaking Europe's cities: "To make it safe, you need to make it dangerous." Iain Borden, director of the Bartlett School of Architecture in London and a leader of this new movement. Its members recently published an intriguing report titled "What Are We Scared of: The Value of Risk in Designing Public Space."

In recent months, a school of architects and urban planners has picked up disparate cues from the urban experiments taking place in northern Europe and given them a name -- risk. Our cities, they believe, are now designed predominantly to minimize risk, and this has made them dull, homogeneous, repetitious and, paradoxically, often quite dangerous.

(Risk is more than an intellectual puzzle — it invokes a profoundly physical experience. A small amount of danger surrounding the use of public spaces might act much like a vaccine immunizing the population against complacency).
Doug_Saunders  urban  design  risks  safety  public_spaces  counterintuitive  urban_planning  uncertainty  complacency  biology  psychology  dangers  life_skills  coming-of-age  risk-assessment  high-risk  low-risk  soul-enriching  physical_experiences 
october 2011 by jerryking
Finding a Post-Crash Economic Model - WSJ.com
NOVEMBER 30, 2010

Economists' Grail: A Post-Crash Model
By MARK WHITEHOUSE
business  economics  economy  models  psychology 
july 2011 by jerryking
The Unexamined Society - NYTimes.com
By DAVID BROOKS
July 7, 2011

Eldar Shafir of Princeton and Sendhil Mullainathan of Harvard have a
book coming out next year, exploring how scarcity — whether of time,
money or calories (while dieting) — affects your psychology, how it
produces its own cognitive traits. It is a 3rd theory alongside two
more traditional understandings of poverty: The first presumes people
are rational. They are pursuing their goals effectively and don’t need
much help in changing their behavior. The second presumes that the poor
are afflicted by cultural or psychological dysfunctions that sometimes
lead them to behave in shortsighted ways. Neither of these traditional
theories has produced much in the way of effective policies.
David_Brooks  scarcity  psychology  decision_making  books  constraints  policymaking 
july 2011 by jerryking
Crovitz: Tsunamis of Information - WSJ.com
MAR. 21, 2011 |WSJ| L. GORDON CROVITZ. Hayek spoke of the
'pretense of knowledge,' and why disasters are worse than expected. In
this information-saturated era, we expect no surprises. Yet we are
constantly surprised. We have huge amounts of data, so we assume that
risks can be calculated & avoided. But we also have exceedingly
complex systems. Just as weather is too hard to predict more than a few
days out because of how many variables interact, it's hard to predict
other complex systems. Consider credit instruments during the financial
crisis, the global warming debate, or global epidemics. Thus an
earthquake & tsunami, even in technologically advanced Japan, can
kill tens of thousands, wipe out entire villages, & re-open
questions about nuclear power....some physical systems turn out to be so
complex that they resemble unpredictable social sciences more than the
certainties of simpler physical science....We need to learn how to live
with both new technologies & new uncertainties.
disasters  complexity  Friedrich_Hayek  L._Gordon_Crovtiz  natural_calamities  information_overload  data  uncertainty  surprises  overconfidence  pretense_of_knowledge  earthquakes  tsunamis  social_sciences  certainty  psychology  unpredictability  compounded  risk-assessment  physical_systems  CDOs 
march 2011 by jerryking
Op-Ed Columnist - Drilling for Certainty - NYTimes.com
May 27, 2010 | NYT | By DAVID BROOKS. "...the real issue has
to do with risk assessment. It has to do with the bloody crossroads where complex technical systems meet human psychology...we’ve come to depend on an ever-expanding array of intricate hi-tech systems. These h/w & s/w sys. are the guts of financial markets, energy exploration, space exploration, air travel, defense programs and modern production plants. These sys. which allow us to live as well as we do, are too complex for any single person to understand. (1) people can't
imagine how small failings can compound into catastrophic disasters. (2) people acclimate to risk (3) overconfidence in backup sys. and safety devices. (4) people match complicated technical sys. with complicated governing structures. (5) people tend to spread good news and hide bad news.(6) people in the same field suffer groupthink...Overlooks incentives that distort choices.
David_Brooks  oil_spills  complexity  risk-assessment  cognitive_skills  biases  Malcolm_Gladwell  certainty  overconfidence  psychology  incentives  catastrophes  groupthink  compounded  financial_markets  energy_exploration  space_exploration  air_travel  multiplicative  risk-perception  optimism_bias  risk-acclimatization  Richard_Feynman  cumulative  bad_news 
may 2010 by jerryking
The Protocol Society
Dec. 22, 2009 | NYT | By DAVID BROOKS. A protocol economy has
very different properties than a physical stuff economy. The success
of an economy depends on its ability to invent and embrace new
protocols, its' “adaptive efficiency,” -- how quickly a society can be
infected by new ideas. Protocols are intangible, so the traits needed to
invent and absorb them are intangible, too. First, a nation has to have
a good operating system: laws, regulations and property rights. Second,
a nation has to have a good economic culture: attitudes toward
uncertainty, the willingness to exert leadership, the willingness to
follow orders. A strong economy needs daring consumers (China lacks
this) and young researchers with money to play with (N.I.H. grants used
to go to 35-year-olds but now they go to 50-year-olds). See “From
Poverty to Prosperity,” by Arnold Kling and Nick Schulz and Richard
Ogle’s 2007 book, “Smart World,” When the economy is about ideas,
economics comes to resemble psychology.
David_Brooks  innovation  books  culture  adaptability  ideaviruses  risk-taking  R&D  N.I.H.  property_rights  regulations  rule_of_law  institutional_integrity  services  digital_economy  rules-based  intellectual_property  demand-driven  psychology  customer-driven  intangibles  behavioural_economics  protocols  poverty  prosperity 
december 2009 by jerryking
Have you done your 10,000 hours? - The Globe and Mail
Margaret Wente

Published on Friday, Nov. 20, 2009 7:21PM EST Last updated on Monday, Nov. 23, 2009

"Outliers", if you have not. It's all about 10,00 hours of preparation and timing. Luck is the intersection of preparation and opportunity.
books  Margaret_Wente  Malcolm_Gladwell  Success  authors  genius  talent  psychology  Outliers 
november 2009 by jerryking
Take Smart Risks
09.21.09 | Wired Magazine | by By William Gurstelle. "Done
artfully and wisely, living dangerously engages our intellect, advances
society, and even makes us happier. It is possible to work consciously
toward joining the "golden Third": Just get in there and start pitching.
As with knife-throwing, unicycle-riding, and whip-handling, one gets
better mainly by practice. Make your choices smart ones. It's not
difficult to discriminate between a good, soul-enriching risk and one
that's just plain nuts."

A comment:

That study of risk takers vs. non risk takers is probably
biased. The random sample of people interviewed most likely didn't
include people that were dead or in prison as a result of the risks they
took.

And it is very true, but sometimes risks are compounding and other times
they are isolated. It's important to distinguish when something that
appears to be isolated is really starting to compound.
category_errors  risk-taking  risks  self-actualization  isolation  compounded  discernment  risk-assessment  dangers  psychology  soul-enriching  practice  dedication  multiplicative  survivor_bias  cumulative 
october 2009 by jerryking
Hold Me Tight
Jan/Feb 2009 | Psychology Today | By: Sue Johnson
psychology  relationships  health  men  women  romantic_love 
may 2009 by jerryking
What Does Your Credit-Card Company Know About You? - NYTimes.com
May 12, 2009 | New York Times | By CHARLES DUHIGG. Credit card
companies are focusing on those customers most likely to honor their
debts. Credit-card companies are investing more in understanding their
customers’ lives and psyches, because they believe knowing what makes
cardholders tick will help firms differentiate those who are good risks
from those who should be weeded out.
analytics  competingonanalytics  psychology  data  data_driven  credit_cards  credit_scoring  human_psyche  market_research 
may 2009 by jerryking
Op-Ed Columnist - Genius - The Modern View - NYTimes.com
April 30, 2009 | New York Times | By DAVID BROOKS

The key factor separating geniuses from the merely accomplished is not a
divine spark. It’s not I.Q., a generally bad predictor of success, even
in realms like chess. Instead, it’s deliberate practice. Top performers
spend more hours (many more hours) rigorously practicing their craft.
It’s the ability to develop a deliberate, strenuous and boring practice
routine.
discipline  David_Brooks  op-ed  talent  psychology  education  genius  Success  overachievers  preparation  dedication  Pablo_Picasso  routines  practice  high-achieving 
may 2009 by jerryking
A List Apart: Articles: Look at it Another Way
September 09, 2008
Look at it Another Way
by Indi Young
psychology  design  creativity 
april 2009 by jerryking
I Want You to Apologize
Tuesday April 7, 2009 | HarvardBusiness.org | - Peter Bregman -
business  empathy  psychology  apologies  atonement 
april 2009 by jerryking
How to Handle Rejection
Jul/Aug 2007 | Psychology Today| By Carlin Flora

How to find the positive in a pink slip or critical words. Rejection can help you reinvent yourself.
Fired Up: What Happens if You Get Canned by Woody Allen?
The Good Critique: It's an art form that everyone needs.
7 Reality Checks
rejections  howto  bouncing_back  psychology  reinvention  constructive_criticism  overthinking  life_skills 
april 2009 by jerryking
Dumped, But Not Down
Jul/Aug 2007 | Psychology Today | by Carlin Flora

Rejection is a fundamental law of the (social) universe. But if you
laser in on every dis, you'll likely trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Rejection-sensitivity is on the rise, but you can learn to brave even
the biggest brush-offs.
rejections  resilience  bouncing_back  relationships  overthinking  psychology  affirmations  self-defeating  self-fulfilling 
april 2009 by jerryking
Psychology Today: Can Telecommuting Hurt Your Career?
Jul/Aug 2007 | Psychology Today Magazine | By Anya Kamenetz
Can lack of face time keep one from advancing their career?
telecommuting  career  movingonup  Anya_Kamenetz  psychology 
april 2009 by jerryking
Psychology Today: Inspiration in the City
Jul/Aug 2007 | Psychology Today Magazine | By Anya Kamenetz
From new business contacts and careers, to art and friendship, the urban
life has much to offer. Four city dwellers give their perspective on
urban living.

By: Anya Kamenetz
vignettes  case_studies  urban  cities  Anya_Kamenetz  psychology 
april 2009 by jerryking
Psychology Today: The Laws of Urban Energy
July/August 2007| Psychology Today | Anya Kamenetz
The world is flatter than ever. But while technology may give us each
the tools of creativity, it takes urban proximity and unpredictability
to sharpen them. One's mental garden buds, blooms, and proliferates when
cross-pollinated with the many other flowers and fruits crowding the
urban jungle. People come up with more and better ideas and produce more
results from those ideas by finding more collaborators as well as
critics.

By: Anya Kamenetz
cities  creativity  economics  urban  community  idea_flows  idea_generation  inspiration  cross-pollination  Anya_Kamenetz  playing_in_traffic  prolificacy  proximity  psychology  unpredictability  serendipity  collaboration  information_spillover  densification 
april 2009 by jerryking

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