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jerryking : self-analysis   24

To Be a Great Investor, Worry More About Being Wrong Than Right - MoneyBeat - WSJ
By JASON ZWEIG
Dec 30, 2016

The stunning surprises of 2016 should have taught all of us that the unexpected will happen. To be a good investor, you have to be right much of the time. To be a great investor, you have to recognize how often you may be wrong. Great investors like Warren Buffett practice trying to disprove their investing assumptions to determine whether they are correct.

Techniques to combat these cognitive biases:

Shun peer pressure from social media or the Internet. If you reveal your opinion to a group that has strong views, the sociologist Robert K. Merton has warned, the ensuing debate becomes more “a battle for status” than “a search for truth.” Instead, get a second opinion from one or two people you know and can trust to tell you if they think you are wrong.

Listen for signals you might be off-base. Use Facebook or Twitter not as an amen corner of people who agree with you, but to find alternative viewpoints that could alert you when your strategies are going astray.

Write down your estimates of where the Dow Jones Industrial Average, oil, gold, inflation, interest rates and other key financial indicators will be at the end of 2017. If you don’t know, admit it. Ask your financial advisers to do the same. Next Dec. 31, none of you will be able to say “I knew that would happen” unless that’s what the record shows.

Book reference: Keith Stanovich, Richard West and Maggie Toplak point out in their new book, “The Rationality Quotient,” rational beliefs “must correspond to the way the world is,” not to the way you think the world ought to be.
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Commenter:

What investors need to do is focus on their own investments, their strategies for each particular holding, long-term, income-oriented, speculative, etc. and stick to their plan without being distracted by peers and press looking for big headlines.
Warren_Buffett  biases  confirmation_bias  investors  books  Pablo_Picasso  personal_finance  investing  Jason_Zweig  pretense_of_knowledge  self-awareness  self-analysis  self-reflective  proclivities  warning_signs  signals  second_opinions  peer_pressure  DJIA  assumptions  mistakes  personal_economy  surprises  worrying 
january 2017 by jerryking
From Michael Lewis, a Portrait of the Men Who Shaped ‘Moneyball’ - The New York Times
By ALEXANDRA ALTERDEC. 3, 2016
Lewis decided to explore how it started.

The inquiry led him to the work of two Israeli psychologists, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, whose discoveries challenged long-held beliefs about human nature and the way the mind works.

Mr. Lewis chronicles their unusual partnership in his new book, “The Undoing Project,” a story about two unconventional thinkers who saw the world differently from everyone around them. Their peculiar area of research — how humans make decisions, often irrationally — has had profound implications for an array of fields, like professional sports, the military, medicine, politics, finance and public health.....Tversky and Kahneman's research demonstrating how people behave in fundamentally irrational ways when making decisions, relying on their gut rather than available data, gave rise to the field of behavioral economics. That discipline attracted Paul DePodesta, a Harvard student, who later went into sports management and helped upend professional baseball when he went to work for Mr. Beane.....Unlike many nonfiction writers, Mr. Lewis declines to take advances, which he calls “corrupting,” even though he could easily earn seven figures. Instead, he splits the profits from the books, as well as the advertising and production costs, with Norton. The setup spurs him to work harder and to make more money if the books are successful, he says.

“You should have the risk and you should enjoy the reward,” he said. “It’s not healthy for an author not to have the risk.”
Amos_Tversky  Michael_Lewis  Moneyball  books  book_reviews  unconventional_thinking  biases  cognitive_skills  unknowns  information_gaps  humility  pretense_of_knowledge  overconfidence  conventional_wisdom  overestimation  metacognition  behavioural_economics  irrationality  decision_making  nonfiction  writers  self-awareness  self-analysis  self-reflective  proclivities  Daniel_Kahneman  psychologists  delusions  self-delusions  skin_in_the_game  gut_feelings  risk-taking  partnerships 
december 2016 by jerryking
Some of the Wisest Words Ever Spoken About Investing - MoneyBeat - WSJ
By JASON ZWEIG
Nov 25, 2016

Investing is often portrayed as a battle between you and the markets. Instead, Graham wrote, “the investor’s chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself.”

Evaluating yourself honestly is at least as important as evaluating your investments accurately. If you don’t force yourself to learn your limits as an investor, then it doesn’t matter how much you learn about the markets: Your emotions will be your undoing....Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman with his book Thinking, Fast and Slow.
I’m especially grateful that he taught me this: “The most important question is, ‘What is the base rate?’”....Michael Mauboussin, a strategist at Credit Suisse, has taken that hint and compiled base rates for all sorts of corporate measures, so investors can readily check a company’s projections against reality.....From the economist and investing writer Peter Bernstein, who died in 2009, I learned about Pascal’s wager: You must weigh not only the alluring probabilities of being right, but the dire consequences of being wrong....Finally, Mr. Bernstein never tired of emphasizing that we can never know the future — least of all at the very moments when it seems most certain....Richard Dawkins pointed out in a lecture in 1996, many of us today know more about the world around us than Aristotle, the greatest mind of his age, did more than 2,300 years ago: “Science is cumulative, and we live later.”

Investing knowledge is also cumulative, and we all benefit from those who have already learned — and taught — how it works.
investing  investors  gratitude  Peter_Bernstein  wisdom  economists  Jason_Zweig  ETFs  books  Benjamin_Graham  pretense_of_knowledge  base_rates  Michael_Mauboussin  self-awareness  self-analysis  self-reflective  proclivities  probabilities  Pascal’s_wager  Daniel_Kahneman  delusions  self-delusions  emotions  Achilles’_heel  cumulative  Nobel_Prizes 
november 2016 by jerryking
The three personal development goals successful people pursue habitually - The Globe and Mail
DIXIE GILLASPIE
Entrepreneur.com
Published Saturday, Jan. 24 2015
(1) They spend time getting to know themselves. They know their energy patterns, so they know how much sleep is optimal. They know when they get their best rest they are at their best when they are awake. They know what fuel their body needs, and what kind of exercise it takes to feel the way they want to feel. They know what environments they need to be creative and productive, and they know the difference between those two states.

They know their priorities, too, and they know that all of their decisions must start with the highest level of their vision, mission or purpose.
(2)They spend time improving themselves. Successful people know that to increase their net worth they must increase their personal worth. They’ve mastered the personal SWOTT analysis and they consistently invest in themselves....Successful people read-story books, how-to books, news, industry articles. They read to improve their knowledge, their mind-set, even their mood. Moreover, successful people study--trends in their industry and outside of their industry, things that interest them and, most of all, they study people.
(3) They spend time sharing themselves. Many super successful people are generous with their money and time.
overachievers  self-analysis  self-assessment  personal_energy  self-awareness  generosity  mindsets  self-improvement  habits  think_threes  volunteering  serving_others  high-achieving 
january 2015 by jerryking
Relax
1. Develop your own personal operating system. Carve out and define your own reality, philosophy, values, and interests rather than automatically accepting those of your family, peers, religion, or culture.

2. Begin to let go of the need for validation. Don’t be motivated by the opinions or others or the desire for recognition. Be driven by what is important to you and what you value.

3. Trust your instincts and allow for experimentation. Get to know yourself and discover what you enjoy and find exciting, even if you have to fail a few times.
4. Accept others as they are. Begin letting go of judgments and criticism of others. Focus on people’s strengths rather than their faults. Learn to deal with difficult people without diminishing yourself.

5. Really hear people. Go beyond just listening and understanding. Let people know that you really get them.

6. Take care of unresolved matters in your life. Restore your integrity. Forgive and ask for forgiveness where necessary. Reclaim the energy you have given to these matters.

7. Embrace a healthy lifestyle. Get some form of exercise daily. Eat healthy foods that support your body, not your emotions. Do this because you respect yourself, not to impress others.

8. Cause things to happen. Don’t wait for them. Be a creator, an instigator, a collaborator. Share your enthusiasm.

9. Show people you care. Don’t just talk about it. Show them in ways that are meaningful to them, not you.

10. Require the best of people. See them not only for who they are, but who they can be. Lovingly reflect that vision to them.

11. Ensure your own needs are met. Discern your primary needs, and communicate fully what is important and valuable to you in your relationships. Don’t compromise these to keep peace or hang on.

12. Speak constructively. Use your words to uplift, inspire, motivate, and encourage. Don’t offer “constructive criticism” or subtle digs.

13. Laugh easily. Have a lightness about you. Take life less seriously and choose to find and create fun and joy.

14. Cease gossip. Choose not to talk about others in ways that are openly or subtlety critical. Don’t share information for the feeling of power or intrigue.

15. Make requests, not complaints. If you need something from someone, ask for it directly. Don’t whine or complain to them or others.

16. Handle situations fully. Kindly but clearly deal with negative issues as soon as possible. Don’t tolerate anything if it causes resentments.

17. Be done with arguments. Smile and walk away until healthy communication is possible.

18. Offer help only when asked. Don’t assume that others want you to fix them or that you know best for them. Be available and give help only when asked.

19. Care deeply, but remain detached. Let others know you care deeply about them when they have problems, but don’t get caught up in their problems.

20. See with your heart, not your eyes. Look beyond superficiality when seeing someone. Financial status, appearance, notoriety, all mean nothing. Look for the authentic person inside.

21. Don’t say yes when you mean no. If you mean no, your yes will be harnessed with resentment. Say yes only when your yes is given freely.

22. Let others know you are grateful. Tell them and show them that you feel blessed to have them in your life.

23. Never play the guilt card. Don’t try to manipulate or hurt someone by trying to make them feel bad about their choices, decisions, or actions.

24. Give more than is expected. Don’t over-commit, but freely give more than you promise.

25. Be inter-developmental in your relationships. Don’t be controlling, dependent or co-dependent. Create relationships that are mutually uplifting, reward, and satisfying.

26. Be a big person. Don’t try to take credit, diminish others, or hold back on praise. Offer acknowledgment and power when it is needed and deserved.

27. Be confident enough to be humble. Be able to laugh at yourself, acknowledge your flaws and failures, and accept that they don’t define you.

28. Be open to learning. Don’t flaunt your intelligence or superior knowledge. Recognize that there is always something to learn, even from those who appear “less than.”

29. Be more engaged than engaging. Show your sincere interest in others. Use the word “you” more than “I.” Listen intently and reflect back to others who they are.

30. Give gifts that others want. Not just gifts to impress or that are important to you.

31. Challenge yourself constantly. Don’t settle for mediocre. Don’t languish in past accomplishments. Keep moving forward and exude enthusiasm about possibilities and the actions to make them happen.

32. Detach from adrenaline. Simplify your life enough so you are not rushed, stressed, cluttered, or distracted. Allow yourself time and room to focus.

33. Embrace the incredible power of now. Nothing is more valuable than this moment. Make it the best moment you possibly can right now.

34. Don’t fight the flow. Don’t struggle against people or situations you can’t control. Move effortlessly in a different direction.

35. Keep evolving. Stay on a path of self-improvement and stay alert for opportunities for shifts and growth.
motivations  inspiration  strengths  affirmations  personal_growth  self-improvement  immediacy  simplicity  focus  movingonup  gift_ideas  listening  continuous_learning  humility  praise  relationships  overdeliver  gratitude  sincerity  authenticity  self-awareness  constructive_criticism  foregiveness  values  self-starters  healthy_lifestyles  gossip  self-analysis  self-assessment  self-satisfaction  complacency  personal_energy  span_of_control  disconnecting  rainmaking  individual_initiative  beyond_one's_control  next_play  walking_away 
august 2014 by jerryking
Why do we celebrate failure?
Aug. 23 2013 | The Globe and Mail |LEAH EICHLER.

“In Canada, it seems we are ashamed of failure and feel it forever labels us in a negative light,” he said. In the United States, failure – especially among successful entrepreneurs – it is more like “a badge of honour.”

“In most rags-to-riches entrepreneur success stories, you’ll inevitably find a section about past failures and overcoming seemingly insurmountable obstacles. [Americans] love that story arc,”... [One of the principles] that separate the super rich and successful from the average lot, including “nothing succeeds like failure.”

“Self-made millionaires are more apt to experience failure the way we might experience going to the dentist. It’s uncomfortable but inevitable. And it’s essential if you want to reach your goals,” Mr. Schiff said in an interview with LinkedIn.

But what if all failures can’t be turned into valuable life lessons? Barry Moltz, a Chicago-based author, speaker and small business consultant argues that, “Failure stinks when we are going through it and sometimes there is nothing to learn.” The business world loves to talk about great comebacks, he noted, cautioning that celebrating failure is a placebo to make us feel better.

“My advice when you fail: Learn what you can, grieve the loss but then let go and take an action that gives you another chance at success,” Mr. Moltz said.
failure  Leah_Eichler  lessons_learned  high_net_worth  self-made  discomforts  self-analysis  bouncing_back  life_lessons 
august 2013 by jerryking
Nine key traits to make the shift from failure to success - The Globe and Mail
HARVEY SCHACHTER

Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Oct. 09 2012

1. Rebounders accept failure: They hate to fail, but they accept it, and try to fail productively, learning from the experience, as the inventive Thomas Edison did with his many failed experiments.

2. Rebounders compartmentalize options: They are often emotional people, with drive and passion. John Bogle, who founded Vanguard Group, was furious when he was pushed out of a previous job and even had revenge fantasies. But he didn’t spend time trying to get even. Rebounders control the emotional fallout of their struggle (i.e. emotional mastery).

3. Rebounders have a bias toward action: After Tammy Duckworth lost both legs when her U.S. military helicopter was shot down in Iraq, her first impulse was to get to work at rehabilitation and her new life. Rebounders keep pushing, keep doing.

4. Rebounders change their minds: They can discard old thinking, give up on long-held dreams, and adjust their ambitions to evolving situations. They don’t cling to ideas that are proving hopeless.

5. Rebounders prepare for things to go wrong: They don’t expect things to go their own way. They are cautious optimists, always aware their plans may go awry.

6. Rebounders are comfortable with discomfort: They are willing to accept hardships and inconveniences as long as they feel they are getting closer to their goal. Singer/songwriter Lucinda Williams could have signed a major recording deal years earlier if she had agreed to make the songs the music companies wanted, but she stayed true to her own vision, even if it meant often barely having the money to pay her rent.

7. Rebounders are willing to wait: They are determined to succeed on their own terms, and can accept that it might take a long time. “But rebounders don’t just wait positively for a lucky break, or do the same thing over and over. They constantly learn and get better, continually improving the likelihood of success until the odds tilt in their favour,” Mr. Newman observes.

8. Rebounders have heroes: Many of the rebounders he met are romantics, seeing their role as in some way historic, and they are entranced by some mentor or historical figure who they want to emulate. Vanguard’s Mr. Bogle, for example, often alluded to the naval battles of Admiral Lord Nelson and named his mutual fund company after his hero’s ship.

9. Rebounders have more than passion: We are told we need passion for success, but rebounders realize it requires more than that. They have a special drive and resilience that allows them to capitalize on their passion.
bouncing_back  resilience  Harvey_Schachter  emotional_mastery  personality_types/traits  ksfs  long-term  patience  preparation  contingency_planning  reflections  self-analysis  self-awareness  thinking_tragically  discomforts  strategic_patience  adaptability  inconveniences  passions  heroes  pragmatism  compartmentalization  action-oriented  hardships  next_play 
october 2012 by jerryking
Managing: What entrepreneurs should watch out for
July 16, 1996 | The Globe and Mail |

fourth pitfall is the most difficult, Mr. Drucker says. “It's when the business is a success and the entrepreneur begins to put himself before the business. Now he asks himself, ‘What do I want to do? What's my role?’ "Those are the wrong questions. If you start out with them, you invariably end up killing yourself and the business. You should be asking, ‘What does the business need at this stage?’ The next question is: ‘Do I have those qualities?’
Peter_Drucker  entrepreneur  challenges  selfishness  pitfalls  cash  self-analysis  self-assessment  life_cycle 
july 2012 by jerryking
Journaling Techniques For Self-Reflective Leaders
1992 | Ivey | Peter Chiaramonte

+++++++++++++++++++++
PRODUCTIVITY
Five ways to make 2016 the most productive year ever
MIKE VARDY
Contributed to The Globe and Mail
Published Monday, Jan. 04, 2016
From Globe & Mail
5. Keep a journal. Why should you keep a journal? Well, other than giving you a place to look back and reflect and chronicle the events in your life, there’s one essential benefit to your productivity: Journalling is like a brain dump at the end of the day.

The beginning of a new year is a time to recharge, reflect and refocus. Journalling can really help you with that and, in turn, help you plot out a more productive year in the process.
journaling  writing  leadership  Managing_Your_Career  self-analysis  introspection  reflections  self-awareness  self-reflective 
may 2012 by jerryking
The Genius and Beauty of Strengths
“From my experience, each of the themes of talent identified by the Clifton StrengthsFinder Inventory has a stroke of genius within it. The genius of our talents reflects what those talents enable and empower us to do to potential levels of excellence. The concept of genius refers to an extraordinary ability to do certain things, and as such there is great beauty in seeing what is done by the genius within individuals.”
introspection  personality_types/traits  self-analysis  strengths 
march 2012 by jerryking
Managing Oneself
January 2005 | HBR | Peter Drucker.

We live in an age of unprecedented opportunity: If you’ve got ambition and smarts, you can rise to the top of your chosen profession, regardless of where you started out.

But with opportunity comes responsibility. Companies today aren’t managing their employees’ careers; knowledge workers must, effectively, be their own chief executive officers. It’s up to you to carve out your place, to know when to change course, and to keep yourself engaged and productive during a work life that may span some 50 years. To do those things well, you’ll need to cultivate a deep understanding of yourself—not only what your strengths and weaknesses are but also how you learn, how you work with others, what your values are, and where you can make the greatest contribution. Because only when you operate from strengths can you achieve true excellence.
howto  Peter_Drucker  knowledge_workers  Managing_Your_Career  self-analysis  introspection  strengths  weaknesses  self-awareness  It's_up_to_me 
march 2012 by jerryking
How to Play to Your Strengths.
January 2005 | HBR |by Laura Morgan Roberts, Gretchen Spreitzer,. Jane Dutton, Robert Quinn, Emily Heaphy, and Brianna Barker.
Managing_Your_Career  introspection  pattern_recognition  HBR  feedback  self-analysis  strengths 
march 2012 by jerryking
What Knowledge Is of Most Worth in the Global and Digital Economy?
Catching Up or Leading the Way

by Yong Zhao

We must cultivate skills and knowledge that are not available at a
cheaper price in other countries or that cannot be rendered useless by
machines. This is mainly Pink's argument but is shared by others such as
the New Commission on Skills of the American Workforce and Harvard
economists Claudia Goldin and Lawrence F. Katz, both professors of
economics at Harvard University. In The Race Between Education and
Technology, they write:

Today, skills, no matter how complex, that can be exported through
outsourcing or offshoring are vulnerable. Even some highly skilled jobs
that can be outsourced, such as reading radiographs, may be in danger of
having stable or declining demand. Skills for which a computer program
can substitute are also in danger. But skills for non-routine
employments and jobs with in-person skills are less susceptible. (Goldin
& Katz, 2008, p. 352)
21st._century  automation  China  core_competencies  Daniel_Pink  digital_economy  eBay  education  face2face  future-proofing  imagination  in-person  knowledge  Lawrence_Katz  Managing_Your_Career  mental_maps  non-routine  personal_growth  outsourcing  self-analysis  self-worth  skills  skills_training  special_sauce 
june 2011 by jerryking
Op-Ed Columnist - Leading With Two Minds - NYTimes.com
May 6, 2010 | New York Times | By DAVID BROOKS. Five years
ago, the United States Army was one sort of organization, with a certain
mentality. Today, it is a different organization, with a different
mentality. It has been transformed in the virtual flash of an eye, and
the story of that transformation is fascinating for anybody interested
in the flow of ideas.

The process was led by these dual-consciousness people — those who could
be practitioners one month and then academic observers of themselves
the next.

It’s a wonder that more institutions aren’t set up to encourage this
sort of alternating life. Business schools do it, but most institutions
are hindered by guild customs, by tenure rules and by the tyranny of
people who can only think in one way.
David_Brooks  U.S._military  organizational_change  institutional_change  dual-consciousness  institutions  critical_thinking  strategic_thinking  U.S._Army  introspection  self-analysis  self-awareness  transformational  mindsets  idea_flows 
may 2010 by jerryking
Behind all successes are a series of failures
Mar 31, 2010 | Financial Times. pg. 18 | Luke Johnson. while
improvement is essential, it pays to keep blame in proportion. Chance
plays a huge role in life, so do not torture yourself unnecessarily in
the wake of a mistake. And by the same token, try to avoid making so
many excuses that you sound as if you're in denial. Honestly analyse the
reasons why things did not go your way, and then move on.
ProQuest  Luke_Johnson  resilience  bouncing_back  failure  setbacks  sense_of_proportion  luck  chance  contingency  self-analysis  blaming_fingerpointing 
april 2010 by jerryking
Motivational Flight of the Bumble Bee
July 10, 2004 | Globe & Mail | WALLACE IMMEN. Canadian
author offers some strategies for pursuing satisfaction in one's career.
Wallace_Immen  Managing_Your_Career  self-analysis  career  self-actualization 
february 2010 by jerryking
There's a price to being a player
Oct 19, 1998 | The Globe & Mail. pg. B.17 | by Barbara
Moses. We are all motivated by different things. The key to going after
what you want and making effective career decisions is being aware of
what makes you feel important. Know yourself. If you want to be a
player, don't be embarrassed. Some people, especially women, feel it's
somehow unseemly to want be a player, or to demonstrate the necessary
competitiveness. Try to identify what it means to you to be a player,
and the stage on which you want to play. Instead of just driving to
become a player in your professional life, look to be a player in your
whole life.
Barbara_Moses  self-analysis  motivations  Managing_Your_Career  self-actualization  Bay_Street 
october 2009 by jerryking
You're a Success, Now Get Down to Work - WSJ.com
AUGUST 20, 2009 | Wall Street Journal | by ALEXANDRA LEVIT.
Examining where you might have shortcomings can make or break a career.
Becoming as successful as you can be -- after you've already climbed
part of the ladder -- means you need two things. For starters, you need
outstanding people skills: Listen carefully, think before you speak,
reciprocate favors and manage conflicts diplomatically. Second, you
must regularly take a hard look at yourself and address your weak
points. For example, if you have a communication issue with one person
or a group of people, step away from the blame game and ask yourself,
"How can I be better?" Make sure people are honest with you by
requesting feedback anonymously and confidentially.

Remember: "Strong leaders don't coast."
Achilles’_heel  Alexandra_Levit  blaming_fingerpointing  emotional_intelligence  EQ  high-achieving  life_skills  Managing_Your_Career  movingonup  overachievers  people_skills  self-analysis  self-awareness  self-improvement  self-reflective  shortcomings  success  up-and-comers  weaknesses 
august 2009 by jerryking
Luck Isn't Lucky At All - Brian Babcock
February 20, 2004| First published in the Globe and Mail| By BRIAN BABCOCK

start to anticipate.
Brian_Babcock  introspection  self-analysis  Managing_Your_Career  anticipating  luck  chance  contingency  self-awareness  self-assessment 
april 2009 by jerryking

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