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jerryking : self-delusions   14

10,000 Hours with Reid Hoffman: What I Learned | Ben Casnocha
16 Lessons Learned (Among Many!)
1. People are complicated and flawed. Root for their better angels.
2. The best way to get a busy person’s attention: Help them.
3. Keep it simple and move fast w...
advice  Ben_Casnocha  career  culture  entrepreneurship  lessons_learned  networking  productivity  psychology  Reid_Hoffman  self-deception  self-delusions  speak_truth_to_power  success  thought_experiments  via:enochko 
august 2018 by jerryking
How I Avoid Confirmation Bias When Investing
Nov 8, 2017 | - The Experts - WSJ | By Ted Jenkin.

(1) Examine all evidence with equal rigor. If you have been sitting on cash during the stock market’s run this year or have been conservative with your investments choices, you may be feeling that you’ve missed out on big returns. And this could lead you to jump into some investments simply because you believe that the market highs will continue (and they have, after all), not because they are the right choice for your portfolio. I can remember a few years back when I thought I missed out on the 3-D printing run when those stocks were blazing.

You need to try to avoid such tendencies to accept confirming evidence without question by looking for real empirical data and evidence–and examining the evidence on both sides with equal rigor. For instance, consider whether the U.S. market is a better bet than international right now. Or, how the GOP tax plan will impact the markets. Make sure you ask yourself the tough questions.

In my case, I forced myself to first consider the downsides to investing in the emerging 3-D printing industry or what consolidation might happen along the way–and the effects it could have on the stocks I was considering. In the end, I took a pass.

(2) Get someone to play devil’s advocate. It has happened to the best of us, no matter our education or background in investing. You are at a dinner party or having a conversation in the kitchen at work when you hear someone say, “I just made 100% profit buying ABC stock, and this thing is just taking off.” When we hear of opportunities to make money, our interest is undoubtedly piqued. And if you hear a tip from a person you trust and like, chances are you will become convinced that it is, of course, a good idea.

Do yourself a favor and find someone you trust just as much to play devil’s advocate and argue the opposite. Ask the person to build a counter-argument using questions such as: What is the strongest reason to do something else? The second strongest reason? The third? What is the worst-case scenario? And can you live with it, if it happens? Then, consider this position with an open mind.

For me, it was a former boss. At times, I would grow frustrated with him because on the surface he would never agree with me when I presented an idea. Over the years, however, I realized it wasn’t really him challenging me as much as it was him challenging me to challenge my own thought process so I could be a better decision maker. His sage advice has made me a better investor today.

(3) Be honest with yourself about your motives. Have you ever heard the saying, “If you can see John Brown through John Brown’s eyes, you can sell John Brown what John Brown buys?” I think it applies to the way I’ve looked at investments in the past–and the motives behind my decisions. We often don’t realize the power of our own motives–and we aren’t honest with ourselves about what they are.

For instance, when I’ve made money in a stock in the past, I’ve felt that those gains justify holding onto to the stock for the long term–even if the stock isn’t performing as well as it once did. So now, when I start doing research about that stock’s prospects, I need to make sure that I am really gathering information to help figure me out the right time to sell the stock. This will help me to determine whether any long-held desire to keep an investment is rooted in sound financial reasoning or is just based on pride or another emotion.

(4) Don’t ask leading questions. One of the biggest mistakes you can make as an investor is to ask questions that set you up to get the answer you want–not the answer you need.....if you find that your financial adviser always agrees with your investment ideas, it may be time to find a different adviser. Healthy and heated debates with my adviser have allowed me to make better personal and business decisions over the years.
personal_finance  investing  confirmation_bias  questions  financial_advisors  worst-case  devil’s_advocates  biases  self-delusions  motivations  hard_questions  counter-arguments  red_teams  open_mind 
november 2017 by jerryking
From Michael Lewis, a Portrait of the Men Who Shaped ‘Moneyball’ - The New York Times
By ALEXANDRA ALTERDEC. 3, 2016
Lewis decided to explore how it started.

The inquiry led him to the work of two Israeli psychologists, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, whose discoveries challenged long-held beliefs about human nature and the way the mind works.

Mr. Lewis chronicles their unusual partnership in his new book, “The Undoing Project,” a story about two unconventional thinkers who saw the world differently from everyone around them. Their peculiar area of research — how humans make decisions, often irrationally — has had profound implications for an array of fields, like professional sports, the military, medicine, politics, finance and public health.....Tversky and Kahneman's research demonstrating how people behave in fundamentally irrational ways when making decisions, relying on their gut rather than available data, gave rise to the field of behavioral economics. That discipline attracted Paul DePodesta, a Harvard student, who later went into sports management and helped upend professional baseball when he went to work for Mr. Beane.....Unlike many nonfiction writers, Mr. Lewis declines to take advances, which he calls “corrupting,” even though he could easily earn seven figures. Instead, he splits the profits from the books, as well as the advertising and production costs, with Norton. The setup spurs him to work harder and to make more money if the books are successful, he says.

“You should have the risk and you should enjoy the reward,” he said. “It’s not healthy for an author not to have the risk.”
Amos_Tversky  Michael_Lewis  Moneyball  books  book_reviews  unconventional_thinking  biases  cognitive_skills  unknowns  information_gaps  humility  pretense_of_knowledge  overconfidence  conventional_wisdom  overestimation  metacognition  behavioural_economics  irrationality  decision_making  nonfiction  writers  self-awareness  self-analysis  self-reflective  proclivities  Daniel_Kahneman  psychologists  delusions  self-delusions  skin_in_the_game  gut_feelings  risk-taking  partnerships 
december 2016 by jerryking
Some of the Wisest Words Ever Spoken About Investing - MoneyBeat - WSJ
By JASON ZWEIG
Nov 25, 2016

Investing is often portrayed as a battle between you and the markets. Instead, Graham wrote, “the investor’s chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself.”

Evaluating yourself honestly is at least as important as evaluating your investments accurately. If you don’t force yourself to learn your limits as an investor, then it doesn’t matter how much you learn about the markets: Your emotions will be your undoing....Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman with his book Thinking, Fast and Slow.
I’m especially grateful that he taught me this: “The most important question is, ‘What is the base rate?’”....Michael Mauboussin, a strategist at Credit Suisse, has taken that hint and compiled base rates for all sorts of corporate measures, so investors can readily check a company’s projections against reality.....From the economist and investing writer Peter Bernstein, who died in 2009, I learned about Pascal’s wager: You must weigh not only the alluring probabilities of being right, but the dire consequences of being wrong....Finally, Mr. Bernstein never tired of emphasizing that we can never know the future — least of all at the very moments when it seems most certain....Richard Dawkins pointed out in a lecture in 1996, many of us today know more about the world around us than Aristotle, the greatest mind of his age, did more than 2,300 years ago: “Science is cumulative, and we live later.”

Investing knowledge is also cumulative, and we all benefit from those who have already learned — and taught — how it works.
investing  investors  gratitude  Peter_Bernstein  wisdom  economists  Jason_Zweig  ETFs  books  Benjamin_Graham  pretense_of_knowledge  base_rates  Michael_Mauboussin  self-awareness  self-analysis  self-reflective  proclivities  probabilities  Pascal’s_wager  Daniel_Kahneman  delusions  self-delusions  emotions  Achilles’_heel  cumulative  Nobel_Prizes 
november 2016 by jerryking
President Obama Quotes Carl Sagan at Rutgers: “Embrace What is True Rather Than What Feels Good”
It calls to mind the words of Carl Sagan, who graduated high school here in New Jersey, he said: “We can judge our progress by the courage of our questions and the depths of our answers, our willingness to embrace what is true rather than what feels good.”
questions  quotes  Obama  affirmations  self-delusions  courage  arduous 
june 2016 by jerryking
Conservatives can only win if they own up to their weaknesses - The Globe and Mail
BRUCE ANDERSON
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Jul. 09, 2015

Losing political campaigns. They are, the cup half-full people say, learning moments.

Each campaign has its own dynamics; losers lose for different reasons. The lessons from a defeat aren’t always portable. But if there’s one lesson that should only be learned once it is this: If there’s a chance you’re going to lose, lose with your eyes open. Get a handle on what’s going wrong, and try everything you can to turn things around.

It sounds obvious. Shouldn’t have to be said. But you’d be amazed.

Political parties are prisoners of hierarchy. Leaders lay down a strategy, and everyone else is encouraged to acknowledge that it is perfectly formed.
political_campaigns  Conservative_Party  pundits  elections  Stephen_Harper  weaknesses  truth-telling  Canadian  delusions  self-delusions  Bruce_Anderson  Federal_Election_2015 
july 2015 by jerryking
Five questions to hone your business strategy - The Globe and Mail
HARVEY SCHACHTER
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Sunday, Sep. 28 2014

1. Why does our business deserve to succeed?
2. What would a new CEO do?
3. Imagine it is three to six years in the future and the proposed strategy has been unsuccessful. Why did it fail?
4. What would have to be true for our strategy to succeed?
5. Would I put my own money into this?
strategy  business_planning  Harvey_Schachter  execution  effectiveness  assumptions  anticipating  questions  biases  overconfidence  self-delusions  skin_in_the_game 
september 2014 by jerryking
Too many first nations people live in a dream palace
Jan. 05 2013 | The Globe and Mail | JEFFREY SIMPSON.

Large elements of aboriginal Canada live intellectually in a dream palace, a more comfortable place than where they actually reside.

Inside the dream palace, there are self-reliant, self-sustaining communities – “nations,” indeed – with the full panoply of sovereign capacities and the “rights” that go with sovereignty. These “nations” are the descendants of proud ancestors who, centuries ago, spread across certain territories before and, for some period, after the “settlers” arrived.
Today’s reality, however, is so far removed in actual day-to-day terms from the memories inside the dream palace as to be almost unbearable. The obvious conflict between reality and dream pulls some aboriginals to warrior societies; others to a rejection of dealing with the “Crown” at all; others to fights for the restoration of “rights” that, even if defined, would make little tangible difference in the lives of aboriginal people; and still others, such as Attawapiskat Chief Theresa Spence, to go on a hunger strike....Stephen Harper was correct in refusing a face-to-face meeting, since a prime minister should not be blackmailed into doing what any group or individual wants....Much of the rhetoric surrounding Chief Spence is of the usual dreamy, flamboyant variety, a mixture of anti-capitalism and anti-colonialism, blended with the mythology (blasted by the reality of what one actually sees on too many reserves) about environmental protection and the aboriginals’ sacred link to their lands....To imagine that isolated communities of a thousand or so people can be vibrant and self-sustaining, capable of discharging the panoply of responsibilities of “sovereignty,” is to live within the dream palace of memory.
aboriginals  Jeffrey_Simpson  self-delusions  protests  economic_development  emotional_blackmail  Stephen_Harper  myths  anti-capitalism  anti-colonialism  self-reliance  self-sustaining  sovereignty  anti-development 
january 2013 by jerryking
Investing Ideas That Stand Test of Time
April 25, 2000 | WSJ | Jonathan Clements

These days I find I am left with just three core investment ideas:
(1) Financial Success is a Sense of Control
If you ask folks about their financial goals, they will likely offer a laundry list of goods they want to buy or announce they want to accumulate as much money as possible. But in reality,
both goals are a prescription for unhappiness.
Sure it might be nice to purchase everything that catches your fancy. But nobody has unlimited wealth, so a focus on endless consumption inevitably results not in happiness, but in frustration and financial stress. Yeah, it would also be great to have heaps of money. But if all you want is an even bigger pile of cash, you will never be satisfied, because you will never reach your goal. So what should you
shoot for? A far more worthy goal, I believe, is eliminating the anxiety that comes with managing money. You want to reach that sweet spot where you feel your finances are under control, no matter what your standard of living and level of wealth.

(2)Investing is Simple
No doubts about it, there are lots of investments and investment strategies that are mighty complicated. But complexity usually means investors are running the risk of rotten results and Wall Street is getting the chance to charge fat fees. Investing is best when it is simple. In fact, if you want to accumulate a healthy nest egg, there
isn’t much to it. First, you have to save a goodly amount, preferably at least ten percent of your pre-tax annual income. Second, you should consider investing at least half of your portfolio in stocks, even if you are approaching retirement. Third, you should diversify broadly, owning a decent mix of large, small and foreign stocks. Fourth, you should hold down investment costs, including
brokerage commissions, annual fund expenses and taxes. Finally, you should give it time. A little humility also helps. Don’t waste effort — and risk havoc — by trying to pick the next hot stock, identify the next superstar fund manager or guess the market’s next move. Instead, your best bet is to buy and hold a few well-run mutual funds.

(3) We are the enemy
If successful investing is so simple, why do so many people mess up? It isn’t the markets that are the problem, it is the investors.
We make all sorts of mistakes. We fret about the performance of each investment that we own, so we don’t enjoy the benefits of diversification. We are often overly self-confident, which
prompts us to trade too much and bet too heavily on a single stock or market sector. We
extrapolate recent results, leading to excessive exuberance when stocks are rising and unjustified
pessimism when markets decline. We lack self-control, so we don’t save enough.

[All the points made immediately above are analogous to Jason Zweig's article on personal finance & investing. From Benjamin Graham --investing is often portrayed as a battle between you and the markets. Instead, “the investor’s chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself.”

Similarly, Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman wrote in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. [that]evaluating yourself honestly is at least as important as evaluating your investments accurately. If you don’t force yourself to learn your limits as an investor, then it doesn’t matter how much you learn about the markets: Your emotions will be your undoing.... ]

If you are going to truly be a successful and happy investor, it isn’t enough simply to devise
strategies that allow you to meet your investment goals. Your strategies also must give you a
sense of financial control and fit with your risk tolerance, so that you stick with them through the
inevitable market turmoil.
That may mean keeping more of your money in bonds and money-market funds. It could mean
paying for an investment advisor. It might mean scaling back your financial goals and accepting
that the kids won’t be heading to Harvard and that you won’t be able to retire early.
These sorts of choices aren’t foolish. What’s foolish is settling on investment strategies without
considering whether you can see them through.
personal_finance  investing  howto  ideas  goal-setting  Nobel_Prizes  money_management  Jonathan_Clements  financial_literacy  biases  humility  mistakes  self-awareness  self-control  proclivities  overconfidence  financial_planning  delusions  self-delusions  emotions  human_frailties  Jason_Zweig  extrapolations  risk-tolerance  recency  unhappiness  human_errors  bear_markets  sense_of_control  superstars  Daniel_Kahneman 
may 2012 by jerryking
You probably think you know all about self-delusion
Oct. 27, 2011 | G&M | Tralee Pearce.

David McRaney new book, You Are Not So Smart, is a romp through some of the major findings in the field of psychology aimed at pointing out the self-delusions most of us harbour but aren’t humble enough to notice....the granddaddy of self-delusions?

Confirmation bias holds everything together. Thinking your opinions are the result of objective analysis, when they’re not. It flavours our unbreakable belief that our behaviour follows from attitude, when actually our attitudes follow from our behaviours. We like to make up stories. But we’re unreliable narrators.
psychology  delusions  books  cognitive_skills  confirmation_bias  self-delusions  self-criticism  biases  behaviours  psychologists 
october 2011 by jerryking
"We are What We Choose"
May 30, 2010 | Princeton University - 2010 Baccalaureate
remarks | Remarks by Jeff Bezos, as delivered to the Class of 2010.
"My grandfather looked at me, and after a bit of silence, he gently and
calmly said, "Jeff, one day you'll understand that it's harder to be
kind than clever." What I want to talk to you about today is the
difference between gifts and choices. Cleverness is a gift, kindness is a
choice. Gifts are easy -- they're given after all. Choices can be hard.
You can seduce yourself with your gifts if you're not careful, and if
you do, it'll probably be to the detriment of your choices."
===============================
Boyce Watkins: Your life is nothing more than a series of choices....you are the compilation of your choices!!
inspiration  commencement  Jeff_Bezos  life_skills  advice  cleverness  kindness  Princeton  choices  speeches  self-delusions  Boyce_Watkins 
july 2010 by jerryking
Seth's Blog: Hope and the magic lottery
Posted by Seth Godin on June 13, 2010.

You deserve better than the dashed hopes of a magic lottery.

There's a hard work alternative to the magic lottery, one in which you can incrementally lay the groundwork and integrate into the system you say you want to work with. And yet instead of doing that work, our instinct is to demonize the person that wants to take away our ticket, to confuse the math of the situation (there are very few glass slippers available) with someone trying to slam the door in your faith/face.

You can either work yourself to point where you don't need the transom, or you can play a different game altogether, but throwing your stuff over the transom isn't worthy of the work you've done so far.

Starbucks didn't become Starbucks by getting discovered by Oprah Winfrey or being blessed by Warren Buffet when they only had a few stores. No, they plugged along. They raised bits of money here and there, flirted with disaster, added one store and then another, tweaked and measured and improved and repeated. Day by day, they dripped their way to success. No magic lottery.

What chance is there that Mark Cuban or Carlos Slim is going to agree to be your mentor, to open all doors and give you a shortcut to the top? Better, I think, to avoid wasting a moment of your time hoping for a fairy godmother. You're in a hurry and this is a dead end.

When someone encourages you to avoid the magic lottery, they're not criticizing your idea nor are they trying to shatter your faith or take away your hope. Instead, they're pointing out that shortcuts are rarely dependable (or particularly short) and that instead, perhaps, you should follow the longer, more deliberate, less magical path if you truly want to succeed.

If your business or your music or your art or your project is truly worth your energy and your passion, then don't sell it short by putting its future into a lottery ticket.

Here's another way to think about it: delight the audience you already have, amaze the customers you can already reach, dazzle the small investors who already trust you enough to listen to you. Take the permission you have and work your way up. Leaps look good in the movies, but in fact, success is mostly about finding a path and walking it one step at a time.
delighting_customers  hard_work  Mark  Cuban  pitches  hope  self-delusions  Seth_Godin 
june 2010 by jerryking
Cool it. Slow down. Don't buy the rhetoric
November 21, 2009 | globeandmail.com | by AVNER MANDELMAN.
The formal art of convincing others is called rhetoric. The Greek and
Romans used to teach it, as did the Jesuits, British law schools of old
and certain colleges in France. There is a variety of rhetorical styles -
Roman, Greek (which includes oratory), British, French, German - but
all are meant to do one thing: convince you and push you into action.
That topic of this column - a warning against letting yourself be
convinced without checking things yourself--due diligence.
Slow_Movement  rhetoric  logic_&_reasoning  Avner_Mandelman  investment_advice  due_diligence  persuasion  Greek  Romans  self-delusions 
november 2009 by jerryking

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