recentpopularlog in

jerryking : stock_picking   7

What You Need to Know to Pick an IPO
April 7, 2019 | WSJ | By Andy Kessler.
Dig up dirt on the competition and board members, and buy to hold long-term.......How do you know which IPOs to buy? No, not to trade—you’d never get it right. Lyft priced at $72, traded at $85 on its first day, then closed at $78, only to fall to $67 on its second day. It’s now $74. I’m talking about buying and holding for a few years. Yes I know, how quaint.

The trick is to read the prospectus. What are you, crazy? That’s a couple hundred pages. Well, not the whole thing. But remember, where the stock trades on its first day is noise....... So understanding long-term prospects are critical. Here are a few shortcuts.

(1) First, glance at the underwriters along the bottom of the cover. On the top line are the banks putting their reputation on the line. If the one on the far left is Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley or JPMorgan , you’re probably OK.
(2) open the management section and study the directors. Forget the venture capitalists or strategic partners with board seats—they have their own agendas. Non-employee directors are the ones who are supposed to be representing you, the public investor. And their value depends on their experience.
(3) OK, now figure out what the company does. You can watch the roadshow video, look at prospectus pictures, and skim the offering’s Business section. Now ignore most of that. Underwriters are often terrible at positioning companies to the market.......when positioning companies, only three things matter: a monster market; an unfair competitive advantage like patents, algorithms or a network effect; and a business model to leverage that advantage. Look for those. If you can’t find them, pass. Commodities crumble........read the Management’s Discussion and Analysis. Companies are forced to give detailed descriptions of each of their sectors and products or services. Then flip back and forth to the Financials, looking at the items on the income statement and matching them up with the operations being discussed. Figure out what the company might look like in five years. And use my “10x” rule: Lyft is worth $25 billion—can they make $2.5 billion after-tax someday? Finally there’s the Risk section, which is mostly boilerplate but can contain good dirt on competition.
(4) Put the prospectus away and save it as a souvenir. Try to figure out the real story of the company. Do some digging.
(5) My final advice: Never, ever put in a market order for shares on the first day of an IPO.
10x  advice  algorithms  Andy_Kessler  boards_&_directors_&_governance  business_models  competitive_advantage  deception  due_diligence  howto  IPOs  large_markets  long-term  Lyft  network_effects  noise  patents  positioning  prospectuses  risks  stock_picking  think_threes  Uber  underwriting  unfair_advantages 
april 2019 by jerryking
Meet the People’s Quant, an Ex-Marine Who Champions Value Investing - WSJ
By Chris Dieterich
June 2, 2017

Wesley Gray’s value-focused fund of overseas stocks is beating all its rivals over the past year. For him, it’s almost beside the point.

Mr. Gray, chief executive of asset manager Alpha Architect LP outside of Philadelphia, says watching short-term market moves doesn’t pay off. Instead, his firm focuses on the benefits of finding and buying a small number of very cheap stocks, and holding them through thick and thin.

Alpha Architect is an upstart active investment manager that tripled its assets last year, a noteworthy performance at a time when traditional stock pickers are struggling with lackluster performance and investor withdrawals. The firm, with $522 million in assets, is among a growing crop of money managers using academic financial and behavioral research, and algorithms, to identify stock bets likely to beat the market.

So-called quantitative investment strategies pulled from academic research have been around for years, popularized by the likes of Dimensional Fund Advisors and AQR Capital Management. Mr. Gray and Alpha Architect aim to deliver highly potent iterations to smaller investors.

Mr. Gray is a former captain in the U.S. Marine Corps who served a tour in Iraq, and later earned a Ph.D. in finance from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He says extreme discipline is a crucial component of his concentrated, algorithmic adaptations of classic value investing, popularized by Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett.

Last year Mr. Gray put out a report, “Even God Would Get Fired as an Active Investor,” concluding that stock-picking foresight alone wouldn’t equip investors to conquer perhaps their most formidable foe: the fear-driven urge to cut losses.....the market is littered with winning strategies that lose their potency over time, and smart-sounding theories that fail outright when put into practice. Moreover, success in investing often leaves market-beating managers awash in fund inflows that quickly outstrip their capacity to generate ideas.

Mr. Gray responds that the research upon which his strategies are based have proved their resilience for years, and that they can be explained by investor behavior. He admits that he has considered the implications of getting too big, a state that he says isn’t imminent but could force unhappy changes on his firm.
alpha  investors  quants  USMC  PhDs  value_investing/investors  asset_management  algorithms  behavioural_economics  quantitative  idea_generation  finance  active_investing  stock_picking  investment_strategies  beat_the_market 
june 2017 by jerryking
BlackRock Bets on Robots to Improve Its Stock Picking - WSJ
By SARAH KROUSE
Updated March 28, 2017

The firm is offering its Main Street customers lower-cost quantitative stock funds that rely on data and computer systems to make predictions, an investment option previously available only to large institutional investors. Some existing funds will merge, get new investment mandates or close. The changes are the most significant attempt yet to rejuvenate a unit that has long lagged behind rivals in performance......The author of the company’s new strategy is former Canada Pension Plan Investment Board Chief Executive Mark Wiseman, who was hired last year to turn around the stock-picking business. The effort is the first test for Mr. Wiseman, viewed by some company observers as a potential successor to Chief Executive Laurence Fink......Many other firms that specialize in handpicking stocks are also struggling with low returns and shifting investor tastes. Since the 2008 financial crisis, clients across the money-management industry have moved hundreds of billions of dollars to lower-cost funds that track indexes, known as passive investment funds, instead of aiming to beat the market.
BlackRock  stock_picking  automation  layoffs  asset_management  institutional_investors  ETFs  Mark_Wiseman  Laurence_Fink  CPPIB  robotics  quantitative  active_investing  passive_investing  shifting_tastes  money_management  beat_the_market 
march 2017 by jerryking
globeadvisor.com: Living in the real world of finance
December 9, 2011 | G&M | by David Parkinson.
Both a scientist and financial guru, Emanuel Derman warns of relying on mathematical models to predict stock movements. As David Parkinson reports, investors should beware the wild card of human nature...Mr. Derman was in Toronto discussing his new book, Models. Behaving. Badly: Why Confusing Illusion With Reality Can Lead to Disaster, on Wall Street and in Life.

DAVID PARKINSON
boundary_conditions  finance  quantitative  Wall_Street  Colleges_&_Universities  books  physics  models  mathematics  stockmarkets  biases  modelling  dangers  false_confidence  human_factor  stock_picking  illusions  oversimplification  in_the_real_world 
january 2012 by jerryking
Long & Short - WSJ.com
* JULY 19, 2006

Irascible Analyst Gives Up Fight
Evan Sturza Went His Own Way On Biotech Stocks for 15 Years; He Leaves, Independent to the Last

*
By JESSE EISINGER
biotech  integrity  analysts  stock_picking 
may 2009 by jerryking
FT.com / Wealth - Star performer’s secret: he is smart
November 13 2006 12:26 | Last updated: November 13 2006 12:26
FT.com By John Authers reviewing Anthony Bolton's "‘Investing with
Anthony Bolton – the Anatomy of a Stock Market Winner’, by Anthony
Bolton & Jonathan Davis. Harriman House Publishing, £12.99."
book_reviews  stocks  equity_research  stock_picking  investing  stockmarkets  books  research_analysts  smart_people 
march 2009 by jerryking

Copy this bookmark:





to read